Rupert's Racing Thread

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Nice one BFR :clap

[Monterosso]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Well done again mate. Should be plenty more of them to come over the next number of months. :clap

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Well done buddy!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Cheers guys. Couldn't have hoped for a better start to the NH season. Just a game I can get my head around far easier! Here's hoping it keeps going.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread We'll see if my prediction will come right tomorrow. I said I'msingingtheblues on a flat track over 2 miles on good ground will go very close. 3.20 at Ascot tomorrow. I find it rather disconcerting that Scudamore fancies Dan Breen more but 8/1 looks more than fair about ISTB. Jumped beautifully last week. I just hope this doesn't come too soon (plus he goes well fresh). I think his only defeat (from about 3 runs) under literally ideal conditions was at Ayr last season when narrowly beaten in a race which worked out well (Tanks For That 3rd, Quito Du Tresor 4th), Anyway, he'll be included as a selection when I do them. When that will be - who knows. Looking forward to the racing though. Going out tonight but will definitely have them up tomorrow morning 'cos I'll be up for the Leeds game.

[BillyHills]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Well done matey:clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.55 Huntingdon - 5pts win Sum Laff @ 100/30 (VC) Posted this prior to his recent run:

2.50 Fontwell - 2pts e/w Sum Laff @ 15/2 (VC) I'm very happy to take on Graduation Night under his double-penalty, as even though he won just the other day by 10l, Jamie Snowden raised concerns about the ground being on the soft side for him, and the winning margin was probably exaggerated by the conditions. As well as this, he didn't exactly beat much. The 2nd horse was having his first run since April, and the third horse seemingly doesn't stay three miles very well. With the extra weight, similar conditions, a better race and a testing run just a couple of days ago, I think he'll be beaten. Now, what he will be beaten with was my next question. There are a few with sound chances, but Charlie Mann's Sum Laff caught my eye more than any other runner. This unexposed horse won his pointing debut back in April 2009 from a horse now rated 115 under rules, with this 2nd placed horse already having a run under his belt. Obviously this is a very tentative argument but Sum Laff goes chasing off a 3lb lower mark than that. Worth mentioning, however. He was off the track for nearly two years having been purchased for a lofty £40,000, but returned as if all of his ability remained, for all he ran as if needing the run. He was by no means weak in the market though - sent off an 8/1 shot for his hurdling debut. He finished 12 1/2l off the winner in 4th with the winner rated in the 130s under both jumping codes now. Sum Laff faced quite a stiff task on his second try over hurdles, when 3rd to Radetsky March and Romulus D'Artaix. The pair were 15l of Sum Laff, but he shaped with promise again, and it was always going to be a struggle facing an experienced (over fences) 126 rated animal and a decent type who has since been placed in both runs subsequently. Things came together a month later, however, as Sum Laff found a more realistic opening at Fontwell. He won by 1 1/4l from a horse who has won 3 times since (rated 120 over hurdles and 130 over fences now). He was noticeably green through the race though, so the winning margin can be upgraded really. He wasn't brilliant at his hurdles, and wandered around between them. He didn't look straight-forward up the run-in but stayed on determinedly enough to win the race. His jumping didn't really improve next time, when he seemed to find the 3 mile trip around Exeter a little bit too taxing. The losing margin of 21l was exaggerated by the fact the winner won by 11l and is now rated 18lbs higher off a mark of 143 after a subsequent victory in a good Cheltenham race. Sum Laff still looked like he had plenty to learn, but it was quite a different test to a furlong shorter around Fontwell - for all he looked to stay well on that occasion. He's shown a fondness for today's track obviously, and always looked like he'd be better over fences. A mark of 112 is one that I feel he can exploit certainly and looks sure to progress seen as this will only be his 5th start under rules. Charlie Mann has a better strike rate with his runners in chases than hurdles, and has had plenty of positive things to say about this gelding. He said on his website last week that: "(He) Really does look very well. Worked upside Masked Man today which he did very nicely. He has been schooling over fences which he has taken to well and hopefully won’t be long before we have him out on the track in a novice chase." Hopefully what he says about him schooling well comes to fruition as if he can brush up his jumping from hurdles to fences, there's no doubt he'll be a better animal over the bigger obstacles. He's been working with horses with better ratings than him (Masked Man rated 130 over fences) so I think the yard think this horse will prove to be better than a 112 animal. He's facing horses with experience over fences, as he's been put straight into handicap company, so this means that he's probably happy with what he's been doing at home. He looked like he'd come on plenty for last season's experience and if he comes back with a bit more professionalism, then he'll be well handicapped to strike on his chasing debut.

He jumped nicely on this occasion, and seemed to be travelling quite well, but suddenly fell off the leaders and was pulled up quickly as if something was amiss. Whether this was the case, or whether the heavy ground did for him, doesn't really matter, as he's got the run under his belt now and faces much better ground today. This looks an easier opening and considering the favourite hasn't jumped a fence in public before, and was inferior over hurdles (I expect Sum Laff at least to make a better chaser), I'll be siding with Charlie Mann's horse once more here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.05 Haydock - 2pts e/w Time For Rupert @ 9/1 (Hills) Posted this prior to his Wetherby run:

The loss of Diamond Harry from the race makes this slightly less of a spectacle, but allows Paul Webber's tough chaser the chance to open his seasonal account. The majority of Time For Rupert's runs have come at Cheltenham - a track he thrives on - which does offer some concerns for today as the speedier track at Wetherby shouldn't typically suit him. He will get a long straight though to put in the overdrive and a decent tempo looks assured with Nacarat in the field - even though he's no pacemaker! Time For Rupert is rated 166 over hurdles but 159 over fences. However, I think there's certain scope to surpass his rating over the smaller obstacles. That would give him very close to the top rating in this field, so he doesn't lack the class. His rating went down by 2 having disappointed in the RSA Chase at the festival, but to be beaten 6l having bled when an infection hadn't cleared up, having jumped like a pig, and travelling like a dog. That run can safely be ignored (even though it was actually a gutsy effort under the circumstances). His previous efforts over fences were highly encouraging. Even though he only put the races firmly to bed over the final flight - motoring up the Cheltenham hill to score by 8l on both occasions. That form worked out well with Hells Bay in 2nd on the first occasion, and festival winner Divers well beaten. The second novice chase saw him beat subsequent Racing Post Trophy winner Quinz and another festival winner over further, Chicago Grey. His form is very hard to knock, and if Paul Webber has him fully tuned up for this, he should give a bold showing. He jumps very well if getting into a good rhythm, has plenty of guts, and stamina in abundance over this trip. The only things that might catch him out is the speedy nature of the track, with the ground not on the slow side, and his fitness. If you were to run this race at Cheltenham with all horses having a seasonal reappearance, I think Rupert would be very tough to beat. I still think he will be today, though, and if he does, it's all systems go for a tilt at the Gold Cup (and even if he loses!).

He ran well here considering he looked to be carrying some condition, and will come on a lot for it fitness wise. The test probably wasn't too much for him, as Weird Al outspeeded him. It's possible the case will be similar today, but the bit of rain we've had will help and hopefully we'll get a decent pace. This either seems likely to come from Time For Rupert, or even better something else that surprisingly makes the running. Either way, Paul Webber's charge will be much fitter now and can take advantage of that with Long Run, Kauto Star, and Diamond Harry all coming back off a break. I think he can turn the tables on Weird Al now they have a run under their belts, and my selection is a nice price here. Sorry I can't go into much further detail but this is the only chance I have to post my selections and I'm tired.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.20 Ascot - 2pts e/w I'msingingtheblues @ 8/1 (Hills) Posted this prior to his run last week:

1.45 Cheltenham - 1.5pts e/w I'msingingtheblues @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) David Pipe's 9yo is a classy sort, but has failed to get his head in front since January 2009. However, he's been contesting some higher quality races than this, and also has struggled to get his optimum conditions in most of his starts since. Each of his wins have come over 2 miles, with good ground clearly a preference. Since his last win, he's had these conditions twice (strictly speaking). Once was a decent 7th of 21 off a big weight in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham having lost his place during the race. The other came back in April of this year when beaten only a neck by Beggars Cap with a couple of today's rivals in behind. He's often been campaigned on softer ground, or at trips too far, so despite his long losing run, I don't think it's as bad as it looks. He is probably better on a flat track, but has won over hurdles at Cheltenham so I will give him another chance on that score. He ended last season in good form considering he wasn't really run in ideal races. The ground and the trip suit him fine here. His record fresh is also very respectable. 116F is that record, and he was still well in contention when falling 4 out in the Old Roan chase last year. This is his time of year with 4 of his 6 career wins coming between the 19th October and 12th December. He looks overpriced in this race with conditions to suit, and in a slightly easier race than he often contests.

Considering the track was against him, he ran a cracker to be 3rd. Jumped great and just shaped as if an easier 2 miles on good ground would be right up his street. Just had nothing more to give from 2 out and the test today will suit him much more. Hopefully this run won't come too soon. He does have a decent record second time out and remains at a nice each-way price here. Conditions are absolutely perfect for him, and it's worth a large each-way bet even though Tom Scudamore prefers 6/1 shot Dan Breen. It's a bit disconcerting but so long as my selection is ready to go, I can't help but see another big run from him. Here's hoping.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Two disappointed. One wins. And I picked the right nap for once! 8/1? Stable second string? Give over!

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Nice winner Rupee! :beer

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Magic Pal :clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Another +11pts on the day as I'msingingtheblues obliges at a much bigger price than he should have. A great effort at Cheltenham and I called it at the time. This horse was a winner waiting to happen on a flat track with good ground. The race was run to suit also as they went quick up front, with my selection held up further back than the other day. Stayed on really strongly under pressure to challenge 2 out and soon forged clear. My other two selections disappointed. Sum Laff was subject to money pouring in as he went off the 6/4 favourite (from 100/30). However, he again stopped very quickly which makes me wonder if there's a more deep-rooted issue there. You have to hand it to Kauto Star, but I'm a bit downhearted about Time For Rupert's run. Conditions weren't really in his favour today but he still was under pressure further out than he should have been, and was well beaten. It's the first time I've really started questioning if he's good enough. Did make a bad mistake near the finish which stopped him getting closer but wasn't going to get near them. The only hope is that the Gold Cup will be spot on conditions wise and it might bring him back to life. Will be interesting to see where he goes next. Anyway, looked like a bad day initially, but delighted for ISTB to get a deserved first success in a while. +50pts now for the season.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Going great :clap

[bowles10]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread nice winner mate :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 12.50 Ffos Las - 3pts win High Storm @ 4/1 (Bet365) Rebecca Curtis' gelding has caught my eye on his last two runs over hurdles, staying on stoutly on both occasions over a 3f shorter trip to what he contests over today. He was only midfield in two bumper runs, and poor on his hurdling debut, but after a break, he's really improved the last twice. He couldn't get involved despite staying on well into 4th on his penultimate start, and last time he finished the race off very strongly to go into a clear 2nd when looking like he may finish in 3rd at the last. The winner was a nice type who looked the obvious horse in the race, and my selection got within 3l at the line, and looked to have plenty left in the tank. He faces a couple of nice horses from the bumper and PTP spheres here but he has the experience, and the step up in trip will help him big time. Should go very close indeed for an in-form yard.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.20 Fontwell - 2pts win Derawar @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) These small chase fields can often give you a chance to try tick the runners off one by one, and this is another one where I feel it's possible. The top horse, Ukrainian Star, is very inconsistent, didn't run well last time and is 11lbs above its last winning mark. Gunner Rose is another who faces a personal best to score, and has it to prove at this trip. Oncle Kid is a 40 race maiden, and Delgany Gunner's little burst to life in the spring ended and has been comfortably beaten on both starts since. He's the most likely threat in my eyes. However, Derawar won by 10l off just a 5lb lower mark at Ffos Las in March. He was a good close 2nd prior to that, and since was a tad unfortunate at Plumpton when 4th. He was hampered a couple of times, and the race worked out fairly well. He can be excused on his comeback run, and should be much fitter today. He looks to have more going for him, even at his age, than the other runners.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.55 Fontwell - 1pt e/w Titch Strider @ 12/1 (Bet365) - 1/5 odds There hasn't been a huge amount to like about Titch Strider's hurdling form to date, but he was 2nd in two bumpers, and is related to numerous hurdle winners. He goes handicapping today off a very lowly mark of 81, and facing some very ordinary runners, looks sure to improve on his previous efforts. His best effort over hurdles came at this track - where he also was 2nd in a bumper. He plodded on into 6th last time in a race which wasn't all that bad, and now switched to weak handicap company, can make much more of an impact.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread -7pts from the last three bets. 2.35 Uttoxeter - 2pts e/w Lovey Dovey @ 13/2 (VC) Simon West doesn't send his runners Southwards all that often, but takes one runner to the Midlands today (only 1 runner previously at Uttoxeter) and that is his mare Lovey Dovey. Since attaining this prolific mare - who has won a point, two bumpers, and a hurdle race, he has sent her over the jumps. Her first run was after a break at Musselburgh when narrowly deprived by Aneyeforaneye. That horse had previous hurdling experience and is currently rated 117. They raced off level weights on that occasion, so my selection's rating of 108 can be exploited today. She made no mistake when sent off at 5/6 next time, though, scooting home by 8l, before struggling to quite see out the 3 mile trip at Perth on soft ground next time out when 5th. She's had a break, and steps back to the more suitable 2m4f today. A bit of cut is no problems whatsoever and her record fresh bodes well. She's been 2nd twice and 1st in all starts when fresh so it doesn't appear to be an issue today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.05 Uttoxeter - 2pts e/w Sawpit Supreme @ 7/1 (VC) Venetia Williams' horses are just starting to show signs of life - moreso when this horse returned to the track - and I can forgive him his lacklustre showing at Exeter. Sawpit Supreme has never gone well fresh, so his disappointing effort at a big price on his return wasn't much to get worried about. This represents a drop in grade for this horse, also, who had some decent form last season. He got his act together at Warwick in January, scoring by 3l off a 4lb lower mark than today. They were similar conditions today, and the horse in 2nd is 11lbs higher in the ratings now. He then chased home Prophete De Guye at Towcester - won his last two and is now 22lbs higher than when beating my selection. Sawpit Supreme wasn't quite as close at Newton Abbot, but it may have just been a couple of furlongs too far against some nice types. The winner is a nice, progressive type rated 127, the 2nd horse 118 and in form in hunter chases. The 3rd horse won his next three and is now 29lbs higher in the handicap off 120 so the race was quite hot that my selection contested. So long as there's nothing more deep-rooted than the fact he just needed his return, everything is set for a big run now. Conditions are ideal, and he takes a considerable drop in grade down to a 0-100 race. Looks to have a real sound chance.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Damn. Lovey Dovey ran well enough but couldn't quite go with them. Thought I was going to have a lovely 11/1 winner and BBOTD with Sawpit Supreme as she travelled really strongly. Was hampered on the home turn which cost her a few lengths but ultimately the winner was too good. Gutted to be 2nd and have nothing to show for it in the BBOTD table, though.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.35 Doncaster - 3pts win Gentleman Anshan @ 6/1 (Bet365) Gentleman Anshan was progressive in handicap chases last season, and can leave his recent effort well behind in an attempt to continue his upward curve today. He got his act together on his 4th start over fences, before pulling up having made a bad error at Hereford. He nearly fell and it ended his chances immediately. That can be forgiven as he's a typically good jumper. He could only finish a 6l 2nd to a horse now 16lbs higher in the handicap before scooting in from another progressive type in Persian Gates - won twice since and now 22lbs higher than at Southwell when meeting my selection. Even though the winning margin suggests a heavy defeat on his seasonal debut, he ran well for a long way and did look a danger, having travelled and jumped well. However, this big horse just got tired in the closing stages of the trip that was also further than he'd been running over. He was allowed to come home in his own time, and it suggested there would be plenty more to come this season. He drops back to his ideal trip, with decent ground also suiting. He'll have come on a lot for that run and a big run is on the cards.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.45 Newbury - 1pt e/w Kasbadali @ 12/1 (Bet365) - 1/4 odds I posted this prior to his recent run:

3.20 Towcester - 2pts win Kasbadali @ 6/1 (Bet365) Kasbadali got off the mark over hurdles last time out having previously been unlucky to face some decent novices off unfavourable marks. He showed plenty of promise in bumpers, and won his second start in that sphere, before chasing home the smart Dare Me at Exeter last year, with a further gap to the third horse. There was nothing wrong with this effort. Front Of House, another decent hurdler, was in the way by 5l the time after. Kasbadali again ran well. He got outpaced before staying on in 5th the time after at Ludlow before chasing home a Grade 2 runner up. The attempt to use blinkers next time out in a decent handicap company had far from the desired effect as he never went or jumped with any purpose - but it was no surprise that he readily picked up a deserved victory in a Ludlow novice race last time out. Back handicapping now, I think he has a top chance in this if ready to go after a break. He's been unfortunate to meet some progressive types and I think he could prove just a bit of a cut above the rest in this race.

He won narrowly that day, but shaped hugely as if 3 miles would suit him better, and that win came off the back of a break. He stayed on stoutly to challenge and forge on up the run-in and today's test looks sure to suit. He's done very little wrong over hurdles, and his only previous try over this trip was in a maiden hurdle when 2 3/4l behind Baile Anrai with the pair well clear. That horse is currently rated 13lbs higher than my selection so there looks some scope off this mark of 120. Ian Williams' horse is a really nice type so it was no shame to lose to him. He's fitter now, gets the trip on his side, and looks fairly handicapped. It would be nice if the yard were going better, but many of their runners have been at big prices so I can forgive that.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Bollocks for the 2nd day running. Can't get a nice bbotd home! Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

[Bathtime For Rupert]

-1pts today. Meh, roll on tomorrow. Sent from my HTC Desire using PL Forum

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.10 Newbury - 1.5pts e/w Sarando @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) - 1/4 odds Paul Webber's Sarando has been ignored by many when it comes to discussing the Hennessy Gold Cup, so I may be barking up the wrong tree, but I think he actually has a pretty good chance here in a far from spectacular renewal. There are questions for the leading contenders to answer in regards to stamina, fitness, and a bit to prove at this level, so it looks an open contest to me. Sarando fits in with some of the key trends for the race - being a 6 year old and also a second season chaser. He wasn't world class over hurdles (130 rated) but neither was Aiteen Thirtythree. However, my selection has improved plenty for the switch to fences, and shapes as if tomorrow's test will be right up his street. If you ignore his chasing debut, his form over fences is pretty good. He won his 2nd start by 12l before narrowly failing behind the decent 135 or so rated yardstick Fruity O'Rooney. Under these conditions, I'd have Sarando down as a much better animal than that one, so even off this higher mark, he is capable of running well. His jumping wasn't ideal on that occasion either, and it was over shorter. He was staying on dourly. He's a bit of a character but has looked a bit more professional since the tongue-tie has been combined with the cheekpieces. He fell on his next run but then put up a stormer behind the top-class prolific Quito De La Roque at Aintree in the spring. That winner is a 169 horse over fences so it was a fine effort to go down by a game neck. He had 22lbs to find on the book, so he does look like he can exploit his current mark of 153 - even if he is towards the head of the weights here. His flat effort on his return can safely be excused, given he doesn't really have the speed for that game - especially after an absence. Last time out he put in a generally good round of jumping at Carlisle despite making a pretty bad mistake 2 out to score from a 140 rated hurdler by 11l. He put in some fine jumps, also, which bodes well for tomorrow. He is capable of the odd blunder, but he certainly can jump when he wants to, and Will Kennedy is quite capable of finding a stride. He also enjoys racing prominently which should suit in this race, and he can keep out of trouble. Even though he won at Carlisle, the horse runs as if he's more at home going left-handed, so that effort can be upgraded also in my opinion. He's a real stayer so the trip will suit him really well here as will the left-handed track. He just looks to have the credentials to put in a really sound run tomorrow. Not much looks to be missing, even if he is quite high in the weights, and he can surprise a few.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 12.20 Newbury - 1pt e/w Noakarad De Verzee @ 20/1 (Bet365) - 1/4 odds I'm going to take a chance on the outsider of the field here, but a horse who has won off this mark, and does run well fresh. His efforts at Cheltenham can be excused in my opinion as he's never run well there in three starts. He jumps well and has some half-decent form in the book. Literally speaking, he holds Horsham Lad through a formline with Rapid Increase - however tenuous - and is a massive price here. He rarely runs a bad race when he has his conditions and he's been 5th, 3rd, 1st, and 3rd after a break in this country.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Another 2nd at a big price. Argh. Can never get the big priced winners.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread The only faller in the race? (unless any fell late on in behind) You bet.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread +1pt today. Suppose the benefit is when I'm not having a good day, I'm still salvaging it with a place. Just wanting that big day...+10 days are fair enough, but my big priced horses tend to place and not win - ruling out the really big profit. Oh well. Sarando was well in contention. Jumped well up until he fell, too.