Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Actually I quite like one in the last... 6.00 Kempton - 1.5pts e/w Hereford Boy @ 9/1 (Boyles) - 1/5 odds Hereford Boy has 2 course and distance victories under his belt, and 4 of his 9 career wins have come off higher marks than what he contests off today. The mark of 68 is well within his grasp, and if you can forgive his most recent run (which I can), he must have a sound each-way chance in this company. Prior to his latest effort, he put in two good efforts at York, and then this track over 7f. He finished 3rd of 20, 2 lengths behind Karaka Jack on the Knavesmire in a better race than this. His Kempton run was also very respectable when 4th to Be A Devil - again in a race I believe was slightly stronger than tonight's contest. He also suffered from a lack of a clear run on that occasion so arguably should have been closer. He finished last on his most recent start, but that doesn't tell the story. First of all, not much came from off the pace in the race. 2 of the first 3 were in the first two positions during the race, with the other placed horse tracking the leaders. There was a gap back to the 4th. As well as this, Hereford Boy got outpaced at a crucial point, before turning for home on the bridle. He still had plenty to do, but found absolutely nowhere to go for quite a long period of time. Robert Havlin had to sit and suffer, but soon realised by the time he could possibly get a clear run, he would have no chance of making the frame. He allowed him to come home without asking any real questions. What he'd have found had he had no problems through the race is questionable - especially as he'd been quite a weak 12/1 shot in the market - but he certainly wouldn't have been beaten so far. And considering he'd previously been consistent at a decent level, I think he can bounce back today. He's got a decent draw in stall 6 and cheekpieces replace the blinkers. His last 4 wins have come with the pieces on and Adam Kirby takes the ride. The jockey is 1-1 on the horse and a respectable 16% strike rate for Dean Ivory.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.40 Nottingham - 2pts e/w Carragold @ 9/2 (Bluesq) - 1/4 odds Carragold has been in great form this season, and conditions today will suit yet again and I believe he can notch up another win. He's already won three races this year, and also put in some good efforts in defeat. He's a tough horse and there appeared to be more to come off this sort of mark when he ran a cracker in the Cambridgeshire consolation race last time when 4th off a 1lb higher mark. That was considerably tougher than his assignment today, and with the ground riding quicker than ideal that day, I think the 9/2 about him today is very fair indeed, and worthy of a large each-way bet. Prior to that run, he twice ran with the ground possibly riding a bit too quick for him. He got outpaced both times before staying on, with the trip possibly too far at York. He chased home a prolific winner in the shape of Unknown Rebel at Hamilton - a result which may have been reversed on softer ground. He has the ground in his favour today which should help him from getting outpaced at a crucial part of the race, he stays the trip strongly, and I think even though the handicapper has had his say, he's still capable of adding to this season's tally.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.50 Chepstow - 1.5pts e/w Capdalight @ 10/1 (Bet365) - 1/4 odds Richard Johnson is an eyecatching jockey booking for this horse, and I feel 10/1 represents excellent each-way value for a horse who has shown plenty of promise in his hurdling runs to date. He has thrived since Paul Henderson took control of him, finishing 2nd, 4th, 1st and 4th in 4 runs during the summer for his new yard. He did have excuses for his defeats - finishing 2nd to a well handicapped horse, too keen over 3f further than today's trip, and being hampered/trip being a little bit too short last time out. His win came impressively over today's trip at Ffos Las by 8l. He's got some of the most solid form in the field, and so long as he settles fairly well, is fit after a little break, and handles the ground, has a huge chance.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 7.10 Kempton - 2pts e/w Wiqaaya @ 14/1 (Bet365) - 1/4 odds Ed Dunlop has his string in fine form, with one example being the unlucky Red Cadeaux in the Melbourne Cup. But back to British soil, I think he has a horse who can go well, also at a nice price, in the shame of Wiqaaya. She showed huge promise in two maidens last year, before returning with a bang to land her third race over 7f at Wolverhampton easily - even if the race was pretty awful. She shaped as if wanting further at Sandown in a decent race before chasing home a progressive horse at Leicester. Soft ground caught her out at Yarmouth and she just didn't get the run of it last time at Kempton. That race was fairly strong though, and has worked out well. She got outpaced but I will forgive her the run and think she's definitely capable of scoring off a 2lb lower mark. She's had a little break since that run and can go well from a low draw.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.20 Towcester - 2pts win Kasbadali @ 6/1 (Bet365) Kasbadali got off the mark over hurdles last time out having previously been unlucky to face some decent novices off unfavourable marks. He showed plenty of promise in bumpers, and won his second start in that sphere, before chasing home the smart Dare Me at Exeter last year, with a further gap to the third horse. There was nothing wrong with this effort. Front Of House, another decent hurdler, was in the way by 5l the time after. Kasbadali again ran well. He got outpaced before staying on in 5th the time after at Ludlow before chasing home a Grade 2 runner up. The attempt to use blinkers next time out in a decent handicap company had far from the desired effect as he never went or jumped with any purpose - but it was no surprise that he readily picked up a deserved victory in a Ludlow novice race last time out. Back handicapping now, I think he has a top chance in this if ready to go after a break. He's been unfortunate to meet some progressive types and I think he could prove just a bit of a cut above the rest in this race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Nice to get a winner to kick-start the jumps season for me. Kasbadali obliging at the advised 6/1 price. Staying on strongly between the final two flights to get on terms with the leaders. A good jump at the last put gave him momentum and he split rivals to score on the run-in. +12pts on the day. Now just having a glance at Wolverhampton to see if there's anything that interests me.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 6.30 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Sweet Ovation @ 16/1 (Bet365) - 1/4 odds Normally this horse wouldn't appeal to me so much, being drawn wide and has been known to miss the break, two things you don't want at Wolverhampton. However, she looks way overpriced here as she has some consistent form in handicaps, including a win, under her belt. She ran a very solid 4th to the highly progressive Stepper Point (now rated 107) at Goodwood having been awkward at the start, and only went down by 3l over an insufficient 5f trip. She built on this to win nicely next time out before being bogged down at Chepstow in the mud. Her latest run wasn't too bad under the circumstances - finishing midfield in a Nottingham handicap. She was ridden by Racheal Kneller that day. Nothing against her, but she's not as strong in the saddle as maybe this horse requires, so David Probert is a more encouraging booking tonight. Her dam was an all-weather winner and if breaking on terms can go well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 7.00 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Ivory Silk @ 14/1 (Bet365) - 1/5 odds Ivory Silk hasn't been running well recently, but drops into claiming company on her beloved all-weather, and can bounce back to form at a healthy price in my opinion. She's been in the frame on 14 occasions from 27 efforts on the all-weather, a record which far outshines her 1 win from 23 on turf. She's got a decent chance at the weights, for all this is a strong claimer, and she can come back to form now returned to the surface on which she was beaten 1l off a mark of 85 last time. Raul Da Silva has been on board for all 4 poor runs this year, and whilst I'm not holding him responsible, today's jockey Adam Kirby has an excellent record on the mare. He has won 2 times, been 3rd once, and unplaced once from 4 rides on this horse and he partners her again tonight. The novelty of the blinkers seems to have worn off and they are discarded today. She needs to pick up her form from what she's done lately, but I am taking a chance that the return to the polytrack and a change in jockey can bring her back to life. If she does bounce back, she's capable of going close here.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 8.00 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Alshazah @ 6/1 (Hills) I am very keen on the chances of Rod Millman's horse in the last, having put in two good efforts at Kempton recently. He's proved himself capable on the surface, and the step up in trip has helped him plenty - having got off the mark after being well-backed two starts ago. He won in quite taking fashion at Kempton on that occasion, readily staying on down the wide outside. He since took on a stronger field off his new handicap mark, and shaped as if he could still win races having finished 4th. The winner looked a nice unexposed type of Godolphin's, with the 2nd and 3rd horses in top form - especially on the all-weather. Tonight's race doesn't look quite so hot, and I think Alshazah is capable of scoring off this mark off top-weight. He's fairly drawn in stall 5 and I'll be hugely disappointed if he doesn't go close.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Arghhh! Flat continues to wind me up. After a 2nd yesterday, a nice priced 4th in the 6.30 and a 16/1 2nd in the 7.00 :cry 40/1 winner too. You have to laugh...

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread I knew there was a big chance with Alshazah when the money came. It came 2 starts ago in a similar fashion, and won then. Did it really well tonight also. +29.8pts on the day (+12pts NH, +17.8pts Flat)

[Lars]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread :clap

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

8.00 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Alshazah @ 6/1 (Hills) I am very keen on the chances of Rod Millman's horse in the last, having put in two good efforts at Kempton recently. He's proved himself capable on the surface, and the step up in trip has helped him plenty - having got off the mark after being well-backed two starts ago. He won in quite taking fashion at Kempton on that occasion, readily staying on down the wide outside. He since took on a stronger field off his new handicap mark, and shaped as if he could still win races having finished 4th. The winner looked a nice unexposed type of Godolphin's, with the 2nd and 3rd horses in top form - especially on the all-weather. Tonight's race doesn't look quite so hot, and I think Alshazah is capable of scoring off this mark off top-weight. He's fairly drawn in stall 5 and I'll be hugely disappointed if he doesn't go close.

Great price you got there:clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Great price you got there:clap

Definitely one to monitor in the market I think. I napped him when he won 2 starts ago and think I got a similar price (5, 6, 7/1 - something like that). Went off 3/1 favourite. Last time he was 8/1 although I'm not sure how strong he was in the market. When the money poured in for him late on today I knew there was a good chance it wouldn't be left behind!

[Monterosso]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread :clap

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Not much catches my eye tomorrow, just one for the afternoon I think: 2.50 Fontwell - 2pts e/w Sum Laff @ 15/2 (VC) I'm very happy to take on Graduation Night under his double-penalty, as even though he won just the other day by 10l, Jamie Snowden raised concerns about the ground being on the soft side for him, and the winning margin was probably exaggerated by the conditions. As well as this, he didn't exactly beat much. The 2nd horse was having his first run since April, and the third horse seemingly doesn't stay three miles very well. With the extra weight, similar conditions, a better race and a testing run just a couple of days ago, I think he'll be beaten. Now, what he will be beaten with was my next question. There are a few with sound chances, but Charlie Mann's Sum Laff caught my eye more than any other runner. This unexposed horse won his pointing debut back in April 2009 from a horse now rated 115 under rules, with this 2nd placed horse already having a run under his belt. Obviously this is a very tentative argument but Sum Laff goes chasing off a 3lb lower mark than that. Worth mentioning, however. He was off the track for nearly two years having been purchased for a lofty £40,000, but returned as if all of his ability remained, for all he ran as if needing the run. He was by no means weak in the market though - sent off an 8/1 shot for his hurdling debut. He finished 12 1/2l off the winner in 4th with the winner rated in the 130s under both jumping codes now. Sum Laff faced quite a stiff task on his second try over hurdles, when 3rd to Radetsky March and Romulus D'Artaix. The pair were 15l of Sum Laff, but he shaped with promise again, and it was always going to be a struggle facing an experienced (over fences) 126 rated animal and a decent type who has since been placed in both runs subsequently. Things came together a month later, however, as Sum Laff found a more realistic opening at Fontwell. He won by 1 1/4l from a horse who has won 3 times since (rated 120 over hurdles and 130 over fences now). He was noticeably green through the race though, so the winning margin can be upgraded really. He wasn't brilliant at his hurdles, and wandered around between them. He didn't look straight-forward up the run-in but stayed on determinedly enough to win the race. His jumping didn't really improve next time, when he seemed to find the 3 mile trip around Exeter a little bit too taxing. The losing margin of 21l was exaggerated by the fact the winner won by 11l and is now rated 18lbs higher off a mark of 143 after a subsequent victory in a good Cheltenham race. Sum Laff still looked like he had plenty to learn, but it was quite a different test to a furlong shorter around Fontwell - for all he looked to stay well on that occasion. He's shown a fondness for today's track obviously, and always looked like he'd be better over fences. A mark of 112 is one that I feel he can exploit certainly and looks sure to progress seen as this will only be his 5th start under rules. Charlie Mann has a better strike rate with his runners in chases than hurdles, and has had plenty of positive things to say about this gelding. He said on his website last week that: "(He) Really does look very well. Worked upside Masked Man today which he did very nicely. He has been schooling over fences which he has taken to well and hopefully won’t be long before we have him out on the track in a novice chase." Hopefully what he says about him schooling well comes to fruition as if he can brush up his jumping from hurdles to fences, there's no doubt he'll be a better animal over the bigger obstacles. He's been working with horses with better ratings than him (Masked Man rated 130 over fences) so I think the yard think this horse will prove to be better than a 112 animal. He's facing horses with experience over fences, as he's been put straight into handicap company, so this means that he's probably happy with what he's been doing at home. He looked like he'd come on plenty for last season's experience and if he comes back with a bit more professionalism, then he'll be well handicapped to strike on his chasing debut.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Thats more like it Rupert! :clap Keep the trend going mate!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Couldn't be 100% sure, but I reckon something went amiss with Sum Laff. Travelled and jumped well, well backed before the off, but suddenly dropped off the leaders and was pulled up shortly after. -4pts on the afternoon either way. Possibly a bit unfortunate though.

[Lars]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Couldn't be 100% sure, but I reckon something went amiss with Sum Laff. Travelled and jumped well, well backed before the off, but suddenly dropped off the leaders and was pulled up shortly after. -4pts on the afternoon either way. Possibly a bit unfortunate though.

I had one in that race that had a similar fate, think Sum Laff didn't handle the really testing conditions and once he was beaten, he was eased quickly, being saved for another day. Was a much improved display jumping wise than he'd shown over hurdles though so he's one to look out for again most definitely. Actually on another look, I could be talking bollocks, guess we'll see when he next turns out...

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 6.10 Wolverhampton - 2pts e/w Pipers Piping @ 9/2 (Paddy Power) - 1/4 odds Alastair Lidderdale has his relatively moderate string in good heart at the moment, and Pipers Piping showed more for his new trainer on his return to the track at Lingfield 8 days ago. The horse won the corresponding race last year off a mark of a 1lb higher mark and looks well handicapped today - especially from his 1/2l defeat off 70 back in January. When you factor in Amy Scott's 5lb claim also, he looks off a very good weight today and shaped as if back in form recently. He came wide at Lingfield off the back of a lay-off, but stayed on very encouragingly into 4th 8 days ago and with that run under his belt, should improve on that today. There are plenty of in form horses in the race, but Pipers Piping relishes these conditions and can score off a handy mark.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

I had one in that race that had a similar fate' date=' think Sum Laff didn't handle the really testing conditions and once he was beaten, he was eased quickly, being saved for another day. Was a much improved display jumping wise than he'd shown over hurdles though so he's one to look out for again most definitely.[/quote'] Possibly, yeah. Was just odd how he seemed to go from travelling powerfully to pulled up in a matter of strides really. 100% races to be won off his current mark though. He definitely jumped a lot better than he did over hurdles so it should just be a matter of time before he exploits his mark :ok

[Lars]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Possibly, yeah. Was just odd how he seemed to go from travelling powerfully to pulled up in a matter of strides really. 100% races to be won off his current mark though. He definitely jumped a lot better than he did over hurdles so it should just be a matter of time before he exploits his mark :ok

I actually edited my post as you could be right with him being amiss as he did drop out tamely on another look. Guess we'll see if he appears within the next few weeks :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 6.40 Wolverhampton - 3pts win Trojan Rocket @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) This looks like a dual between the two jockey championship challengers, with Paul Hanagan on favourite No Know Fear, and Silvestre De Sousa on my selection Trojan Rocket. I'm happy to take on Hanagan based on the fact his horse doesn't have the best strike rate, and I think Trojan Rocket has an excellent chance at a slightly bigger price. He's only really run one bad race, and his three efforts since have been of a good standard. He's been outpaced in all three 6f starts at Wolverhampton, but has finished strongly on each occasion - to finish 3rd, 1st and 2nd. He's shaped as if 7f would suit him based on this, and he gets this today. He's got a decent draw and so long as he gets home, which he should do, I think he's the one to beat.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Pipers Piping too much to do, narrowly beaten into about 5th :sad

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Pipers Piping was given a lot to do from virtually last turning in, but made up strong ground in the straight, to go down in a blanket finish in 5th. Was 1/2l off a place and definitely will be winning off this mark sooner rather than later. Trojan Rocket was suited by the 7f trip, as he didn't get outpaced as in previous races despite the good pace. He picked it up probably a bit too early as the leaders came back, but stayed on well to repel the late thrust of Hanagan on Know No Fear. +9.5pts on the flat today. However, this may change (for better or worse) as I look at the Breeders Cup.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 8.10 Churchill Downs - 1pt e/w Trinniberg @ 10/1 (Paddy Power) - 1/4 odds Tricky race to analyse, so I've opted for a horse who I feel will give his running and can at least make the frame at a good each-way price. I'm opposing the favourite at the price based on the fact we so often see these juveniles beaten when supposed good things after maidens etc when they take on the big races - ironically Shumoos, who is in this field, who was beaten at Royal Ascot. He has been impressive but I'd question what he's beaten, and he's yet to prove himself on a slower surface so I'll take him on and let him win at 4/5 should he do so. The next three in the market all met last time out in one of the prep races for this, the Nashua Stakes. My selection took them along, with Vexor stalking. That horse looked to be travelling much the best, but when asked to win the race, it took a long time to get past the gallant Trinniberg. He really fights on in his races, and ended up going down by 3/4l. These two were several lengths clear of Seeker in 3rd, who for some reason is narrowly ahead in tonight's market of the two horses who beat him at Belmont Park. I'm not entirely sure why but then I'm no expert on American racing. This would suggest Vexor will hold the form, but I'm not 100% sure. Prior to this race, they both ran in the Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes, and my selection ran an absolute blinder from the front as monstrous odds of 69/1. He looked the likely winner close to home, but just got worn down by the favourite Currency Swap late on, with the pair clear. This was over 7f but Trinniberg showed so much pace that he may be better over 6f. Vexor, on the contrary, dropped away very tamely, and early on in the race. Perhaps he sulks when not getting on the front end, or very close to it, because he never got close to landing a blow. My selection has the early pace to get to the front today, for all there looks competition for the lead. He has a seemingly better draw than his Belmont conquerer and looks surer to run his race. He's very game, stays the 6f well, and is proven under the conditions. He looks a solid each-way bet to me, and they'll have to work hard to pass him if/when he hits the front.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 10.10 Churchill Downs - 3pts win My Miss Aurelia @ 3/1 (Hills) The conditions are something which My Miss Aurelia has to prove herself under, but if the muddy dirt holds no fears, then she certainly looks the one to beat in this race. She has a 100% record from her three starts to date, edging up in trip from 6f, to 7f, to a mile each time. She shaped as if wanting further on debut despite scoring by a length, and stayed on gamely to win by a neck on her second start, over 7f. The front two pulled virtually 15l clear of the third horse, and the horse in 2nd comfortably won on debut from a horse who has since won by over 6l in a valuable race. Last time out, my selection quickened well clear to win by 5 1/2l in a group one race, beating the even money favourite well and truly into 2nd. That horse won her previous race by nearly 10l, and the horse in 3rd, reopposes today but has a very tough task on to reverse the form. She is the 5th favourite in this, so you'd have to be hopeful that My Miss Aurelia has the form to win this well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 10.50 Churchill Downs - 2.5pts e/w Announce @ 5/1 (Hills) - 1/4 odds Stacelita is the one to beat in this, but I think Announce has the beating of her, and I think the front three is where to look for the winner in this. Misty For Me has a chance on her best form, but has had another couple of months off the track, and with her best form coming with a recent run, is opposable. I'm not sure Stacelita has beaten much who could give her a good race since being based in the states, and Announce holds her on French form from earlier in the year. Yes, Announce had the fitness edge on her, and she may turn the form round, but she was comfortably beaten by Andre Fabre's filly and was receiving 5lbs on that occasion, something she does not get today. The winner was no other than the very smart Cirrus Des Aigles - who famously beat So You Think recently. Announce didn't get so close when they met next time, but I'm not sure the very testing conditions really suited my selection, who seems better with just a bit of cut in the ground. She bounced back to narrowly deprive Timepiece who has good form with Goldikova and Sahpresa, before being on the wrong end of a nose verdict next time out when beaten by today's rival Nahrain. Announce is proven over further, and it may well be that the extra furlong today will suit my selection more. With Nahrain's possibly attitude problems, I'm happier to take a 'safer' bet on Announce. I find it very hard to see her out of the frame, which makes her a max e/w bet for me.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Argh that is so frustrating. Announce non-runner. I was very keen.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread My Miss Aurelia wins well to increase flat profit on the day to +16.15pts. Still really gutted Announce isn't running though.