Rupert's Racing Thread

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Signifer wants a right handed track. Damn.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Narrow 3rd. 8 runners down to 7 :puke

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

Narrow 3rd. 8 runners down to 7 :puke

Perfect Pastime got 2nd!! ???

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

Perfect Pastime got 2nd!! ???

Haha so he did! Well that's annoying for other reasons! Was watching the RP text commentary which had him in 3rd :lol

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 5.55 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Welcome Approach @ 10/1 (Hills) - BOG Welcome Approach hasn't won since February, but that was over c&d, and off the mark which he runs off today (59). He loves Wolverhampton and is usually seen finishing off to good effect off a good pace. 6 of his 9 wins have come over this course and distance, and his last three starts have shaped with a bit more promise - including a staying on 6th of 13 on his penultimate start - over c&d. He was beaten under 3l that day and today he should get a nice pace to run at. There are few hold up performers in the field, and they look likely to go off very quick, which will allow my selection to pick them up late in the day. 10/1 looks a nice e/w price for a horse who typically goes well under these conditions, and from a reasonable draw, can mow them down late back off his last winning mark.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 6.10 Southwell - 1pt e/w Trojan Gift @ 12/1 (Bet365) - BOG Trojan Gift has lost his way of late, but goes well under these conditions on the fibresand, and with the visor applied, can bounce back to form. He looks well treated just 3lbs higher than his win at Southwell not too long ago, should he be sparked up by the application of headgear, and with Julie Camacho going well, the return to this surface is an obvious positive. He can be a little bit lazy in his races so hopefully he won't sulk with any kickback, and should be staying on at the death. It's a risk as his form has tailed off rather worryingly, but back to this venue with the headgear on can spark a revival at a tasty e/w price.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.50 Salisbury - 2pts e/w Miss Azeza @ 9/1 (Boyles) Competitive listed race for the fillies, this, but I am very interested in David Simcock's taking Ffos Las winner Miss Azeza, after just one run to date. Now, there are obvious contenders in this - including the favourite Dreamwriter - but despite her impressive victory on debut, she wasn't really fancied in the betting and I would have liked to see the horses behind her come out and run better than they have since. She may well win but I won't be taking 2/1 at best about her with that question mark over her. Pimpernel has an obvious chance and Inetrobil can bounce back, but there are formlines which suggest my selection can get the better of these runners and I think she'll be very much in the mix today. Miss Azeza is going to come on bundles for her run, having been slowly away - probably sacrificing 2 or 3 lengths at the start, and also ran green despite travelling well during the race. Jamie Spencer sharply sent her widest of three inside the final couple of furlongs and she picked up well to draw clear to score by a comfortable length and a half. There was a lot of promise in the run, and the form looks solid enough to boot. She beat Show Flower into 2nd - who was only beaten 1l by Salford Art on a previous run. That animal was 2nd in Pimpernel's recent nursery so even though that one looks to have improved, on the face of it, it suggests that Miss Azeza can get the better of Pimpernel today. Also in the Ffos Las race, the 3rd placed horse was the Queen Mary 3rd Caledonia Lady. She was hot favourite at the Welsh track but was beaten 2l by my selection. She provided another form boost to Miss Azeza when running with plenty of credit behind Best Terms at York recently - finishing 4th. She beat some very nice horses that day with smart types in front - Fire Lily for example who ran well behind Maybe at the Curragh since. The 4th (clear from the 5th) at Ffos Las went on to win her next start at Wolverhampton by 6l just to strengthen the form further. Even if Miss Azeza had won by a nose, it would be a solid effort, but to win as comfortably as she did having given away ground at the start, and it being her first start on the racetrack, suggests she has a bright future, and this sort of race doesn't look beyond her. Should go very well indeed.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

5.55 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Welcome Approach @ 10/1 (Hills) - BOG Welcome Approach hasn't won since February, but that was over c&d, and off the mark which he runs off today (59). He loves Wolverhampton and is usually seen finishing off to good effect off a good pace. 6 of his 9 wins have come over this course and distance, and his last three starts have shaped with a bit more promise - including a staying on 6th of 13 on his penultimate start - over c&d. He was beaten under 3l that day and today he should get a nice pace to run at. There are few hold up performers in the field, and they look likely to go off very quick, which will allow my selection to pick them up late in the day. 10/1 looks a nice e/w price for a horse who typically goes well under these conditions, and from a reasonable draw, can mow them down late back off his last winning mark.

That really must have sickened you mate!!! Hard luck missing out on that one! :$

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 5.30 Salisbury - 2pts e/w Mountain Hiker @ 9/1 (Hills) - BOG I posted this before when he was set to run at York:

4.50 York - 1pt e/w Mountain Hiker @ 14/1 (Bet365) - BOG I wrote this prior to his Ascot run: He ran well on that occasion, kicking off the bend to take a few lengths out of the field, but the well handicapped horses swept by and he ended up beaten 6l. A sound effort. This race today is likely to turn into a real slog over 2 miles on soft ground, so I think a horse relentless from the front could be ideal. This horse very much fits into that category - especially on his effort over c&d earlier in the year. He gallops strongly and stays well, so the trip isn't a concern and I expect him to run very well. There is a couple of other horses who like to lead, but not a ridiculous amount of pace in a race with plenty of runners. He probably doesn't have to lead either. Dettori is excellent from the front and this horse won't be stopping quickly I doubt. He went on soft ground last time and is proven on the course. I'm not sure a 2 mile slog will suit Deauville Flyer myself - for all he is the form pick. All of Chilly Filly's wins have come on quick ground and over shorter so that's a huge question mark for the second favourite. Tuscan Gold has been off the track for quite a long time so this would be some achievement to win such a testing race after an absence. Alazan isn't going to enjoy the 2 mile trip on soft ground in my opinion so I think the horses at the head of the market are far from bullet proof. My horse is consistent, game if a little bit quirky, and looks sure to run his race.

His quirks were proven again when he unshipped Frankie Dettori on the way down and didn't go. However, this race could be ideal for him. Colour Vision holds him on Ascot form, but I am confident Mountain Hiker is going to run a very good race today. The trip is a couple of furlongs shorter, which I doubt it going to make a big difference, and there looks zero competition for the lead. This is dangerous with a horse as talented as mine, and I think he'll be tough to pass so long as George Baker gets the fractions right. He should get an uncontested lead around here so I find it hard to see him out of the frame. Factor in the form of Jeremy Noseda - a superb strike rate of 35% last month and I hope he can continue in this vein in September. 9 of his last 16 runners have won, including 5 of the last 6 and this makes Mountain Hiker a very sound each-way bet in this for me.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Not much went right there. Squeezed out at the start, in last, Spencer brought her so wide she was off the screen and kept on a bit. Nothing from off the pace at Salisbury today so a recipe for defeat unfortunately.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

That really must have sickened you mate!!! Hard luck missing out on that one! :$

Standard mate :lol

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread FFS

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread A couple at Kempton tonight I think to come.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 8.50 Kempton - 2.5pts e/w Addwaitya @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG I posted this prior to a recent Goodwood run:

2.00 Goodwood - 0.5pts e/w Addwaitya @ 25/1 (Bet365) - BOG The Goodwood Stakes is a bit of a guessing game, with the vast majority of runners unproven over such a marathon trip of 2m5f. My selection is one of those, but there's hope, and I'm happier to take a punt on him at a big price, than some of the short priced horses who have to prove they stay. Addwaitya is a quirky horse who perhaps has spent most of his career racing over insufficient trips. However, 2 of his 4 career wins have come at Goodwood, with 2 at Folkestone. He's clearly at home on undulating courses, and it gives hope for his effort tomorrow. He should enjoy running downhill as they come for home, and might just be finishing better than most. Laura Mongan first sent the horse over a staying trip at Folkestone 2 starts ago, and he really impressed. Settled in the rear by Fergus Sweeney, he gave him an ultra-confident ride as he was still travelling well quite a way off the lead with 2f left. He switched him to the outside and started to thunder home, quickly working his way to the front and running on to score. It put any stamina doubts to bed, and suggested he could be well treated over marathon trips. He ran at Newbury last time out over 2 miles and again came from off the pace, but this time couldn't get involved in a tougher race. He did keep on well though, despite a few bits of trouble down the straight, and ended up finishing an 8 1/2l 5th of 12. It was a solid run, and the winner was absolutely thrown in it was proven - as Keys hacked up, before winning again last week at Ascot. Addwaitya shaped as if he'd get even further, and I hope this proves correct. Back at a track which will suit him to the ground (2/3 at Goodwood - with excuses on his only defeat), and up in trip might just see him put in a big show against potentially more classy rivals. Many of these have to prove they stay, and I think the Laura Mongan trained gelding has a better chance than most. Another 5f is quite a lot, but the way he's seen out his races the last twice offers hope, and he is related to stamina-laden horses. He's a half-brother to a horse placed over 2m, his dam won over 12f and her half-sister won over as far as 15f. It's a guess, really, and there's a decent chance he won't quite see it out, but it's a risk worth taking at such a big price.

He ran respectably enough on this occasion. He was held up in the rear as usual as well as an attempt to get the trip, and he shaped as if not getting home after running well for a long way. Nothing to lose in defeat in such a hot race compared to what he's in tonight (0-75). There were plenty of 80+ horses in that race and his stamina didn't hold out either. Can safely be excused. Last time out he ran at Epsom over 12f, when now I feel 2 miles is ideal for him. Also, he was ridden by Gina Andrews, and this horse is a bit of a quirky one. Held right out the back by a jockey of her ilk, he was never going to do anything but plug on - which he did into 5th of 11. He gets stronger handling tonight and back up to 2 miles. His run behind Keys (last time he ran over 2 miles) would be good enough to take this, and the polytrack is no concern whatsoever. I think he has a big chance now with conditions to suit just 3lbs higher than his quite taking win not long ago.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Just the one. Was interested in Emerald Wilderness in the first and Greylami in the last but will refrain.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread That was ALWAYS going to happen.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread It aint happening for me at the moment. Yet another 2nd. Addwaitya comes with what looked like a winning run but gets collared late on. Beats the rest 4 lengths.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread +28.9pts. Could have been so much better lately. Place place place place place! :wall

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread I am knackered but gonna get a couple out the way now as I've already posted about them before.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.35 Haydock - 2pts e/w Society Rock @ 15/2 (PaddyPower) - BOG Brief bit of writing from the Golden Jubilee day:

3.45 - 1pt e/w Society Rock @ 28/1 (Boylesports) I liked this horse last year and backed him e/w when 50/1 2nd in the race last year. I think he's at his best in big sprints, and coming off a good pace today will suit down to the ground. He ran Bated Breath close last time out and now should be fully primed to go. The ground is a concern, but he hasn't gone on soft ground so we don't know he doesn't go on it. Who knows what draw will be favoured today, but he'll get a good lead of Hooray you'd have thought, and that should toe him into the race nicely. Could go well at a big price.

He ran a cracker to win that day, proving he goes on soft ground as well as a sounder surface, staying on strongly under pressure to lead and hold on well. Since then, he's run really well over a trip that's probably a bit too far over in France when getting the better of some of today's rivals when 2nd to Moonlight Cloud. 6f is ideal so to run as well as he did over virtually 7f on soft ground was highly encouraging. This horse has barely run a bad race with the only one you could talk about coming after a long winter break. He's fully entitled to run his race again today so I think 15/2 is a very sweet each-way price. Given he pretty much fails to throw in a stinker every once in a while, I'm confident he will reward with a place at the very least. He holds some of these on form and conditions will suit fine. There is talk he's best at Ascot, which might be the case, but big sprints with a good pace suit him best, so it's probably just a bit of a coincidence these often come at Ascot. Conditions won't be an issue here and he can confirm Ascot form with Bated Breath, and reverse C&D form with that one with the race run more to suit than when they clashed early in the season. Dream Ahead obviously has a huge chance on his July Cup victory but was behind my selection in France so I will stick with James Fanshawe's likeable type for this one. There's no reason to jump ship and even in a race this competitive, he should be bang there at the finish.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.45 Ascot - 2pts e/w Communicator @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG I posted this prior to his recent York run:

2.30 York - 1.5pts e/w Communicator @ 11/1 (Hills) - BOG I posted this prior to Communicator's run at York back in May: He did indeed win that race, travelling extremely well and staying on strongly. He's shown an obvious liking for the course at York, and I was encouraged by the manner he stayed on close home to forge clear after it looked like he was in a war of attrition for a moment. He managed to pull clear by 1 1/4l over 12f on that occasion, shaping as if he would get even further. He went to Ascot for the King George V Stakes and ran a really good race. The ground was quite testing so for him to run as well as he did was excellent, and also suggested the step up to the distance he contests today will not be a problem. He travelled well like he usually does, before being carried wide into the straight. He was switched to the inside and stayed on to be a 9l 4th to Brown Panther. There were 18 runners and they were really strung out in the end, so to get as close as he did was a fine effort against the winner, and fellow St Leger hopeful Census - who gained revenge on Tom Dascombe's charge recently. Both are rated between 110-120 now and are very much contenders for the Doncaster classic. He's entitled to improve for another step up in trip given he is by a Derby winner, and out of a horse who is a half-sister to a staying horse from the family of a Cesarewitch winner. He's got a fine draw in 9 over the Ebor trip, and has shown he can run with some give in the ground. He runs off the same mark as he did at Royal Ascot so he has every chance of running very well indeed in this competitive affair. Michael Bell's horses are firing on all cylinders at the moment with a phenomenal 41% strike rate in August and Hayley Turner is on board having ridden the horse to victory at the venue two starts ago on her only ride. She's clearly riding well at the moment and this horse represents another big chance for her, and the Michael Bell team.

His price today reflects that run, but if you ignore it (which I am very happy to do), he's no 20/1 shot even in a race this competitive. His run at Ascot behind the Leger hopefuls looks just as good as anything else in this race, and I think it will pay to forgive him his most recent effort - hence a large each-way bet on this one. His run at York was disappointing but he raced very freely for quite a long way in the 1m6f contest which, given his stamina wasn't assured anyway, made it a very tough ask. He simply didn't get home after pulling so hard and the extra 2f just proved too tricky on that occasion. Not saying he won't get it in time, but he can't see it out effectively unless he settles better. This looks more appropriate back down to 1m4f trip over which he's run two great races out of two. He's won one of them and ran the excellent 4th to Brown Panther on the other. The ground will suit him and I think he's got a good chance now. Parlour Games looked to enjoy the stamina test at York, and despite holding obvious chances, might prefer further now, but in all honesty, it's extremely open so it would be pointless going through the main rivals. It's 7/1 bar in places showing how competitive it is, and there's no way my selection should be an outsider in the race. The odds are just quite compact. The fact Martin Lane takes the ride is no concern given Hayley Turner's injury, and Jamie Spencer having a good book of rides at Haydock, and he's a very capable rider anyway.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread There's probably more but I'd fall asleep writing them. In a bit :lol

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.00 Haydock - 2pts e/w First City @ 9/2 (Bet365) - BOG David Simcock's mare may only have won 2 out of her 22 starts, but she's been competing at a very high level this season and this represents a drop in class, even if he faces the males on this occasion. After First City's first run of the season when entitled to need it, he ran a cracker at Epsom to be fast-finishing 2nd to Antara - beaten a diminishing 3/4l with the pair a few lengths clear. She then ran a terrific 3rd in the Windsor Forest. She finished 3rd with the 2nd, Chachamaidee winning easily at Goodwood since. Continued her consistency with another excellent 3rd in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket when only beaten 1 3/4l by Timepiece and Sahpresa. Both of those horses have run very well since with form linked in with Goldikova. First City met the French wondermare on her most recent start. She was well-held but the race probably wasn't run to suit, and there's nothing to be ashamed of to be beaten by her, Timepiece, and Sahpresa. This looks easier, and even up against the boys, I think she can get her 3rd win of her career.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.30 Haydock - 1pt e/w Ashbrittle @ 20/1 (Bet365) - BOG Ashbrittle looked a stayer on the up when winning at Doncaster last year, and although he took a step back at Ascot last time, I'm happy to forgive him that and give him hopes at a big price today. His pedigree suggests a trip around 1m6f would suit and it was clear he wanted a trip when staying on over a mile on his debut. He was quickly stepped up to 12f on only his second start, and it paid off, as he went down by a head to the useful Awsaal with the pair a mile clear. He got his head in front at the third attempt at Hamilton when beating a decent type by 1/2l - the runner-up won by 10l on its next run. He met two hotpots next time out when a 7l 3rd at Ffos Las but the two in front proved to be very good as Ferdoos won (now rated 110) with Sea Of Heartbreak in 2nd (now rated 103). The visor was applied to Ashbrittle at Doncaster upped in trip to 15f, and he stayed it well to get on top late on. He travelled really well and it set him up for a big campaign this year. His return to the track was very encouraging also. He was entitled to need the run but travelled really strongly and looked in a great position at the 3f pole, he only faded in the final furlong. He was well fancied at Royal Ascot in the Ascot Stakes when sent off at 10/1. Things didn't go to plan. He travelled well to a point, but was pushed along a few furlongs out, was involved in several bits of scrimmaging and it didn't help his course. Was never going to challenge though. Even though the horse shaped as if he'd get further than 15f, when you race over 2m4f, you're going into unproven territory, and I'm happier now with the horse back over a more suitable trip. The rest of his form looks good, so an e/w bet at a big price looks worth it to me.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.15 Kempton - 5pts win Modun @ 5/2 (Bet365) - BOG Going against a bit of a favourite of mine in Harris Tweed, but Modun is going to reach his potential at some point, and he can start with a win here. He's been running crackers in handicaps but I think he's up to this level with conditions to suit. The only bad run he's put in was on very soft ground at Royal Ascot which clearly didn't suit. He stayed on like an express train over 10f at Goodwood to just fail before that, and shapes as if 12f is ideal after running over 10 and 14 in his last two starts. Just didn't get home on easy ground at York last time, and has polytrack form when narrowly being denied by good all-weather handicapper Spensley on his second start. He's going to get a good pace to run at with Classic Punch and the aforementioned Harris Tweed and I think it will play out well for Sir Michael Stoute's charge.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread +27.4pts. Not a great afternoon.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.40 Leopardstown - 3pts win Elusive Award @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Elusive Award has been competing in some valuable races recently, and this represents a slight drop in class for Andrew Oliver's charge. He doesn't win very often but is consistent, and I think he can go well with conditions to suit. He needs luck in running but enjoys good ground and this trip, and also had a good record around Leopardstown. His performances there have been a win, a defeat after a long break, a 3rd of 17 and a 3rd of 13. He goes very well under these conditions and looks a nice price to bag a deserved success.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Just a joke. Elusive Award staying on well down the outside early in the straight before nearly being brought down.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.30 York - 1.5pts e/w Capone @ 20/1 (Hills) - BOG Competitive sprint handicap, and although my selection may be seen as the David Nicholls second string, he has a reasonably each-way chance in my eyes. The sprint King does very well with his runners over the shorter distances, and Capone is another horse he seems to be getting the best out of following his move to Nicholls' yard this June. Capone was useful in his own right for his previous yards but has been lightly raced recently, and it looks like Nicholls can get the horse to fulfil greater potential than with his past trainers. He was useful on the all-weather in the winter of 2009 but only ran once in 2010 - flopping at Haydock. This season, however, has been extremely encouraging, and I feel he's capable of getting involved in a good sprint handicap. His return to the track at Yarmouth was a superb effort given he was keen, as he narrowly went down to Below Zero. A horse who has been in very good form in good races. He won off 14lbs higher than when beating Capone, just yesterday in a valuable event in Ireland where he won easily. He also boasts good recent placed form behind the progressive Belle Royale and then Eton Rifles. Capone went back to the polytrack which he clearly enjoys at Kempton next time. He won very authoritatively by 2 1/2l. It wasn't a bad race by all-weather standards and he put it to bed in a matter of strides. That was off 85 and suggested another win was in him. His sights were set higher next time out when sent rather optimistically to Newmarket for a listed race. He was one of the lowest rated in the field and it was difficult off level weights against horses in the 90s and even 100s in the case of Monsieur Chevalier. He travelled reasonably well in rear if a little keen, and had to be switched right out when it's probably ideal to be closer to the rail. He was soon left behind but it wasn't without promise given the way he travelled and the track position he had to race in. He only beat 1 home but he couldn't lose much in defeat in such a contest. This race looks more suitable, back in a handicap at a more reasonable level, and I think he's a bit overpriced. He needs to pull out more on turf off a mark of 93, but if anyone can squeeze out that improvement in him it's Nicholls. Conditions look ideal and I think high draws will have the benefit here. He's coming out of 16 which looks a good draw, and I think he can run a big race. It's obviously very competitive - like all races of this nature - but this horse has plenty of talent, and his first two runs of this season were highly encouraging. You would have taken Capone out of the race rather than Below Zero, and with the latter winning off a much higher mark since, it suggests that Capone can also win off an 11lb higher mark especially given he wasn't race fit when running on that occasion. His win was very decisive at Kempton and the price looks too big to turn down an each-way bet in my opinion.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Definitely more races in him. Ran about 9th in the end on possibly not the ideal stands rail. Not feeling like any big winners are coming though unfortunately.