Rupert's Racing Thread

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.25 Ascot - 1pt e/w Monsieur Joe @ 12/1 (VC) - BOG Monsieur Joe hasn't been at his best this season, but I think he'll have the race run to suit today, and is capable of running a big race in my opinion. He ran a superb race in Meydan to finish 2nd in a conditions race when only 1/2l behind Happy Dubai with horses including Prohibit in behind. He didn't really race in an ideal position in the valuable Al Quoz sprint next time out before he returned to today's c&d when going down narrowly behind Elnawin (won 8l since) and Noble Storm (2l listed winner since). His run at Windsor can be forgiven in my eyes seen as he's never run a good race at 6f really and his recent return to 5f was again in a small field, when I feel he's better when coming off a good pace which he should get today in this bigger field. Also, the visor was left off last time having been applied for his good runs this season. It returns today, and that could make all the difference. Walter Swinburn's horses are running well now after a quietish summer and I expect a big run from this one also.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.15 Longchamp - 2.5pts e/w Workforce @ 10/1 (Hills) - BOG This price looks too good to miss even in a race so competitive. At 10/1 he has to be worth taking a chance on. A Derby and an Arc winner from last year at a double-figure price in any race has to be worth a go. Workforce has always been a bit of a favourite of mine, having been fancied by me for last year's Epsom Derby. Things didn't really go to plan in the Dante, and he soon proved that wasn't his true running when winning the Derby in quite breathtaking fashion on only his third career start. Some have questioned the performance seen as the pacemaker finished 2nd, but a 7 length winning margin and the fastest Derby time recorded showed what a good animal this horse is. Rewilding was back in 3rd and we all know how good he proved to be before his untimely demise. He proved he was far from infallible though, with a flat performance in the King George. Nothing can be taken away from the supremely impressive Harbinger, but Workforce did not run to his true ability - hanging left which was a concern going into Longchamp last year. It paid to stick with him though as he stayed on strongly through horses to nail the prize over in France by a head - proving he was a top class horse. Sir Michael Stoute sent a warning out before Workforce's return to the track at Sandown this season - meaning the Derby and Arc winner went off as big as even money. However, he stayed on stoutly over a 10f trip too short, and carrying some condition, to score by 1l with the front two clear. So You Think had just too many guns in the Eclipse next time out, but I'm quite confident Workforce is capable of turning that form around now they clash over 1m4f. Workforce galloped on strongly having tried to nick the race, but Aiden O'Brien's challenger found that little bit of speed late on. I find it surprising that So You Think is half the price of Workforce, especially considering he himself only just scraped home from Snow Fairy last time out. Again, Workforce didn't really show his true colours behind Nathaniel in the King George this year, but there were excuses, as well as the fact he had to give plenty of weight to a high-class, mature 3yo. Nathaniel would have been a huge fancy for the Arc this year had he been in the field, and Workforce just met a good one there. The combination of the weight as well as being struck into and hanging badly left, meant he couldn't live with John Gosden's horse. 3-year-olds have dominated the Arc but I'm not sure this year's 'Classic Generation' entrants are as good as in previous years, and it gives a big chance for a rare win for an older horse. I don't see why Workforce can't retain his crown - especially given the two horses at the head of the market are drawn very wide. Workforce is boxed in stall 8 - the same as he was in last year. It is no coincidence that Workforce has a 100% record when racing in contests with 8+ runners, and a 0% record with less than 8. He's run in four of either, and he clearly enjoys a good pace and the chance to come through rivals. He's guaranteed to get that today and it makes his price look massive. The ground may have forced his price out a little, but watering won't make the ground too quick and it's not as if he hasn't performed on fast ground before. Ryan Moore has raced back to fitness to take the ride - a huge positive for the horse. Sarafina will have to get things spot on given her running style, and it may just be that she gets going too late. I've already mentioned that I feel Workforce can have the beating of So You Think over this trip. It's difficult to assess some of the foreign form, but of those coming over from these shores, I know I'd rather be with last year's winner. He's a class act and from 4 races with 8+ runners, he's won a debut by 6l, a Derby, an Arc, and a 10f reappearance when not fully fit. Write him off at your peril.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 12.10 Longchamp - 4pts win Brigantin @ 4/1 (PaddyPower) I think this looks an ideal opportunity for Brigantin to bag a first Group 1 race. This staying contest won't take as much getting as in previous years with the ground on the good side this year. This will suit Brigantin very well as his best staying form has come on a sound surface. He twice ran well over 2 miles at Longchamp earlier this year, staying on well in the first and then winning the second. The very good Opinion Poll was behind on that latter occasion. He ran really well in the Ascot Gold Cup to be 3rd - staying on to suggest this trip is not beyond him. The ground may have been a touch soft on this occasion also, making it a good effort. He then ran well over 5f shorter when 3rd to Jukebox Jury - keeping on well. He shaped badly as if the trip was a little bit too sharp for him and would be much more at home over further. The very soft ground at Longchamp found him out last time, but the 2m4f trip today on good ground should bring out the best in him and he can take the spoils.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 1.20 Longchamp - 2pts win Fire Lily @ 13/2 (VC) Posted this prior to her Curragh run:

4.25 Curragh - 2pts e/w Fire Lily @ 10/1 (Bet365) - BOG I posted this prior to her York run: She ran an absolute cracker that day to finish 2nd in a hot race, but found Best Terms too strong as the Hannon trained individual maintained her 100% record. This race looks another tough one with Maybe and La Collina to face, but 10/1 looks a solid each-way bet to me given she'll be tough to keep out of the first 3 so long as she gets home and there's no more non-runners! She's up to 7f today and after deliberation, I don't think she'll have any problems staying the trip. I don't think she'll get much further, but her runs over 6f have been promising to suggest an extra furlong won't be an issue. In Ireland she forged clear late in the day to win going away - and that was on soft ground. At York, even though she was closest at about the furlong pole, she wasn't stopping and ran all the way to the line - the winner just pulled out more. The rest of the field weren't making any impression on Fire Lily as she beat the rest of them by 3 1/2l or so. Had Best Terms not been in the race, I think Fire Lily would certainly be less than a 10/1 shot for this. They were absolutely no mugs in behind, but you question whether the more fancied runners failed to fire as it was not the fancied runners who finished 3rd, 4th, 5th etc. However, you have to say David Wachman's filly ran really well. I actually think La Collina may get the better of Maybe today. There wasn't much to separate them two starts ago and I think the race the former won last time out against the boys was a better one than the one Maybe won impressively. They're both top-class 2yo fillies, but so is my selection, and I can't see her out of the top 3. I just hope there's 8 runners in case she's not good enough to match the front 2 in the betting, but she's entitled to more improvement up to 7f, and it would be no surprise to me if she got her head in front.

She stayed on well to chase Maybe on that occasion - a really good effort. She had 3l in hand of the 3rd placed horse and suggested that despite her sprinting pedigree, she may well get a mile. The race today may be run to suit, also, with not a huge amount of pace in it, suggesting they may not go too quick to test her stamina. She has a nice turn of foot which could prove pivotal if she can quicken well off the pace, and has the guts when she gets in front. She's a nice price anyway, and worth a bet, as well as a watching brief to see if the Guineas is a realistic target.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.30 Windsor - 2pts e/w Counsel @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG This is a really nicely bred animal from Sir Michael Stoute's yard who ran with promise on debut at Leicester. Stoute's debutants often need their first run and it certainly looked that way with this individual. He was fairly weak in the betting but shaped with obvious promise. He was slowly away but travelled through the early part of the race quite nicely, carrying him into a midfield sit. He didn't get a run initially which meant Richard Mullen had to sit up on him, before running green when the jockey got after him. He wasn't given too much of a hard time - but did have to be switched out again towards the stands side before keeping on well under hands riding in the closing stages despite not really knowing his job. He should have come on plenty for the run, and looks a big price here with the step up to a mile looking sure to suit. Ryan Moore takes the ride which can only be a positive and 10/1 looks big for this son of impressive listed winner on her 2nd and final start, Kitty O'Shea. He's entered in the Derby and it would be interested if he's supported closer to the off.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.30 Windsor - 2pts e/w Rosedale @ 7/1 (VC) - BOG Competitive mile handicap but James Toller's Rosedale has been shaping as if coming into form, and this c&d winner is back on a winning mark - having won under these conditions off 1lb higher last October. Her penultimate effort is one I'm particularly keen on, where she looked unfortunate over today's c&d having previously disappointed in a hot Newmarket handicap. She went for a run up the rail but got hampered between rivals, leaving her badly unbalanced and with no chance at a crucial point of the race. It looked as if she was coming through with a challenge but had no time to recover - despite keeping on in 4th. The winner was a good one, though, and the race worked out well. Thistle Bird was that winner, who ran very well in a Grade 2 race before competing in listed company last time. The 2nd placed horse has won both starts since (upped in grade) and the 3rd has twice run well in better company since also. My selection would have been much closer with a clear run on that occasion - off a higher mark. A mile on soft ground at Brighton may have just been slightly too taxing last time, but she ran well enough, and the return to quicker ground today is sure to suit over this trip. She's primed to strike and has been better than her finishing position on both of her last two runs. She goes well over the course and distance and should be right there at the finish.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Windsor - 2pts win Eastern Gift @ 6/1 (Bet365) - BOG Gay Kelloway's runners are flying at the moment, and Eastern Gift has been one of her horses who has been running consistently well without getting his head in front. Today could be the day, though, with this heat of the mile handicap looking less competitive in my opinion. Eastern Gift has been racing mainly on the polytrack of late, but his form on the turf over this trip is good enough to get involved here. He has run well on his last three starts, but often struggled to find that finishing burst right at the death to turn from keeping on into thrusting to challenge. He should get more of a chance to come with an effort at Windsor than Wolverhampton where it is often tricky to make up ground compared to Lingfield and Kempton for example, given it is more difficult to progress on the bend as well as the straight not being all that long. He's edged down the handicap and he's below a winning mark, so he should be able to make an impact for a yard in form today. There are question marks surrounding many of his rivals, so it is worth chancing a win bet.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.50 Warwick - 2pts e/w Imaginary Diva @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Imaginary Diva paid for her success and consistency by being raised in the handicap 14lbs since July, and shaped as if the handicapper had her measure last time when only capable of keeping on at the same pace at Lingfield. It was a big rise in the weights considering Franny Norton took the ride as opposed to a claimer, so it was always going to be a tough ask carrying such a penalty. However, she still ran as if in form, and runs effectively off 6lbs lower today having been dropped 1lb with a further 5lbs being taken off by the very capable Ryan Powell. This might just make the difference and looks a rock solid each-way bet at 8/1. She's been in the frame more times than she hasn't in her career to date (from over 40 races) so she's admirably consistent and Powell's claim could mean she's still fairly well handicapped this afternoon.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.50 York - 5pts win Electra Star @ 7/2 (Bet365) I am very keen on the chances of William Haggas' horse here, taking a drop down from listed level back to handicap company. She's been very consistent throughout her career, and has progressed up the ranks at the same time. She's only been defeated twice in her last 5 runs - and the only one other than in a listed race came when narrowly beaten by the progressive Terdaad, with a subsequent 6l winner in 3rd. The 7lb rise doesn't look insurmountable from her Ascot success, which was very impressive. She travelled like a dream but had to weave her way through the field - a task which looked potentially too taxing for her, but powered through to win - and not just by a head either. She put 1 3/4l between her and the second horse which was hugely impressive. She had a very difficult ask in a listed event last time - given there were horses rated in the 100s in front of her. Things didn't really pan out for her either, but I expect her to bounce back today. Back in a handicap she can take the spoils.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.25 York - 4pts win Bannock @ 11/4 (Bet365) You do have to forgive Bannock his most recent effort at Redcar, but in such a competitive race, it was always likely his little lay-off might catch him a little bit rusty. He ran midfield having been sent off a very short 2/1 favourite in such a field, but better can be expected today. The rest of his form is definitely strong enough to take this - when chasing home the very exciting Harbour Watch and prior to that, 3rd to Frederick Engels and Roman Soldier. He is 1 of only 2 colts in the field and I fancy him to put these to the sword.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.10 Newmarket - 3pts win Bronterre @ 4/1 (Bet365) Richard Hughes opts to continue the 100% record on board Bronterre, and even in such competitive company, might be able to do so. The Oasis Dream colt has been impressive in two runs so far - including when demolishing his rivals last time out in a race with substance to it. Justineo - in 2nd - has some very sound form, and the 3rd horse - Nayarra - was 3rd in a Group 3 next time out. Bronterre didn't have to be asked too many questions by Hughes to pick the field up and run with them, and it's highly possible that these newcomers to the 2yo world can have the beating of horses such as Power. You can't fault Bronterre so far and with further improvement to come on his 3rd start, he'll put in a bold show I'm sure.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.50 Newmarket - 1.5pts e/w Sentry Duty @ 15/1 (Bet365) Sentry Duty is a horse who has always gone well fresh, and it appears to me that connections have this one lined up for this race having had a promising 'prep' run before taking a little bit of time off the track to ensure his wellbeing is perfect for today. Useful in both codes, this horse is rated 149 over hurdles, and showed some promise last time out at Goodwood over 14f. He looks well treated on last year's possibly unlucky 6th (beaten less than 5l) off a mark 5lbs higher than what he contests off today. Jonny Murtagh is a good jockey booking and this horse's record when fresh reads 4110169. The 4 came on his hurdling debut, the 0 and the 9 came in Grade 1 hurdle races, and the 6 last year's Cesarewitch. He looks set to run a good race seen as he is proven under the conditions, and a big run is expected.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.25 Newmarket - 2pts win Sunday Times @ 4/1 (Bet365) This price looks very fair for a horse who ran an absolute screamer in the Cheveley Park last time out, so long as the ground stays on the good side. His only bad run came at York when the ground was soft, and bounced right back last time to only just fail to beat the very smart Lightening Pearl - putting distance between her and the 3rd placed runner. I think she should be favourite based on that run, and you can't fault her form on decent ground. I don't think Pimpernel should be favourite seen as her previous forage into listed company saw her 3rd in a weaker race than the Cheveley Park, and Sunday Times' main rival could be one of the more unexposed runners. I'm very content with the chances of Peter Chapple-Hyam's filly, though.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Flat season sacked off. Hurrah.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.10 Leicester - 2pts e/w Fourth Of June @ 17/2 (Boyles) This looks a smashing each-way price for a horse who looks sure to improve on his debut run, and is too big to miss out - even as the 2nd favourite in this maiden. The favourite deserves to be at the head of the market, but I wouldn't be taking 4/6 about him given his maiden form hasn't worked out quite as strong as supporters would have liked. He may well win, but I'll let that happen at such a price. The Ed Dunlop trained Fourth Of June has one run under his belt, and he definitely needed it. Despite travelling quite sweetly for a long way under Frankie Dettori, he didn't get any cover throughout, and was green when asked to pick up. He wasn't given a hard time, and kept on in midfield. He was well backed that day when sent off at 4/1 so connections clearly see talent in him, and it was evident on the track - even if he couldn't give them instant payback. The race itself is working out well, with the winner hacking up by 5l in a handicap since, the 3rd and 9th horses also winning, with the 8th and 10th placed horses finishing in a place on their subsequent runs. Fourth Of June is sure to come on for it, and is a genuine threat to the favourite in my eyes. He looks booked for a place at least so long as natural improvement does occur, and may well upset the favourite.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 5.40 Leicester - 1.5pts e/w Embsay Crag @ 10/1 (Bet365) Kate Walton's last two runners (both NH) have been winners, and her form can hopefully spring Embsay Crag back into life. He's been running over 12f recently, a trip which has always seemed to test him - even though he can occasionally get away with it at a tight track such as Chester. A testing 1m2f looks much more up his street, and this can bring out the best in him today off a nice mark. He's won off a 4lb higher mark in the past, and has run sound races without winning off higher marks between his last win in 2009 and now. However, I feel he has rarely had his ideal conditions. He has finished to good effect on just about all starts over today's trip, and he is a winner at today's venue. The testing track will suit him down to the ground and I fancy him to run a big race. 12f at Pontefract, for example, gives him no chance, so you can safely ignore that form. His recent runs over that longer trip have seen him race keenly, and given he's never really proven his stamina over it, he cannot see it out. He shaped with a bit more promise last time when travelling strongly, but found nothing when asked, due to the trip and his early exertions. He's been dropped a further 4lbs for that run and it gives an opportunity for him to run well today. He's been screaming out for these conditions and with the yard in good form, everything looks pieced together for a return to form. He should get a good pace to run off and Jim Crowley looks a good jockey booking.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.30 Newcastle - 4pts win Chapter Five @ 9/2 (BlueSQ) Any ride that Paul Hanagan gets as the flat season comes to a close has to be respected, and this looks a rock solid chance for him to add to his winners in an attempt to retain his Champion Jockey crown. Chapter Five won a bumper at the track on his debut and has since enjoyed numerous visits to the North East venue. He had little chance of cutting ice in 12f maidens on the flat - given he isn't likely to ever be a horse with a tremendous flat rating, so it was always looking more likely that flat handicaps in due course would be his forte. He made his handicap debut over a mile at Redcar, which unsurprisingly proved too shorter trip for him as he got outpaced before staying on under today's positive jockey booking. His second handicap effort was much more promising, when only just failing to get up back at Newcastle over 1m2f last time out. Again he was caught a bit flat footed before thundering home, and will thoroughly enjoy the extra 2f on offer today. As well as this, the even softer ground will be relished (won his bumper on soft) and he should be less inclined to get outpaced during the race. He's bound to be finishing to good effect and with the increased test of stamina today, he will be a tough nut to crack in my opinion.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.30 Newcastle - 4pts win Flameoftheforest @ 11/2 (Hills) This price looks exceptionally good for a horse who could be a grade above these in my opinion. He's improved this season after getting his first couple of runs for Ed De Giles under his belt, and deserves to get his head in front for his new yard - having been with Charlie Swan in Ireland beforehand. He won over 7f on heavy ground over there so the soft ground today doesn't look an issue, and has shaped as if a stiff 6f with some give in the ground would suit him well. He's been unlucky on two efforts at Epsom (slowly away, not clear run, staying on strongly) with a solid run at Folkestone sandwiched in between. The horse who beat him at Folkestone has gone in again since, and his most recent run on the downs looks in a race a bit hotter than the one he contests today. He may well be a horse who finds his own trouble, and can be sluggish out of the stalls, but so long as he doesn't completely blow the start today, he should be able to find enough room at Newcastle to deliver a challenge, and so long as he gets luck in running, should be good enough to get the better of these. Secret City has it to prove off a career high mark, whereas my selection looks handicapped to strike, and I believe his turn will come today.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread A bit better today. Fourth Of June annoyingly 2nd as he got the favourite beat. Another BBOTD placing but not winning. E/w return. Chapter Five was very disappointing but Flameoftheforest won nicely for Fallon. Embsay Crag still to go.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.30 Lingfield - 2.5pts e/w Brynfa Boy @ 6/1 (Bet365) Brynfa Boy is nicely weighted for this claimer and heads an open field in the market. However, I think this price is very good for a horse who relishes today's conditions. He has placed on 7 attempts out of 9 starts on the all-weather, including two wins, and his two most recent efforts have been solid. He only just failed to win two starts ago and clearly holds Burning Stone on that form with the weights again in my selection's favour. He does need luck in running - something he didn't get last time when travelling sweetly under a confident ride from Sean Levey. However, when he went to deliver his challenge towards the inside, he was squeezed out, before staying on right up the rail (not typically the place to be at Lingfield). He would have been much closer with a clear run. Even though all of his wins have come at 5f, the 7f trip is no problem whatsoever, and he's simply not been campaigned very much over 6 and 7f. He's drawn well in stall 2 and Ryan Powell takes off a valuable 5lbs. He's one of the best in at the weights and everything points to a huge run.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Lingfield - 2.5pts e/w Exchange @ 10/1 (Boyles) This looks a stupendous price to me, given his career record in claimers is 4-5. His only defeat came at the hands of Sky Diamond (5/1 shot here), when 3rd, with a subsequent handicap winner in 2nd. Exchange was attempting to give away 12lbs that day and was defeated 3 1/2l. Even though he's won over a mile, I also think he's best at the 7f trip he runs today. He runs off level weights with his conqueror today and I'm confident he will reverse the form - especially seen as a good gallop is virtually guaranteed with the aforementioned James Given runner, along with For Life in the field, to name a couple. The two market leaders are drawn wide, which won't help either, and I think everything is stacked up for a big run from my selection. His run in a handicap at Kempton last time wasn't terrible, at a big price, coming wide down the straight, and this company will suit much more. 10/1 is a huge price and one I'll gladly take a chance with.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.25 Ascot - 2.5pts e/w Society Rock @ 13/2 (Bet365) James Fanshawe has a strong hand in the sprint, and if it weren't for the inclusion of Moonlight Cloud, would look like he could have a 1-2 finish. The French horse is naturally a big threat given the way she won last time (from my selection), but I think thi s year's Golden Jubilee winner can reverse that form over the c&d he relishes. Society Rock's record at Ascot reads 121 - with the only defeat coming in the previous year's renewal of the Golden Jubilee, when a gallant 2nd to Starspangledbanner. His effort in France was perfectly respectable - for all he couldn't get near the winner - given the trip on the ground might have just stretched his stamina slightly. His run at Haydock in the Sprint Cup was another good effort, considering he saves his best for Ascot. He was beaten by the draw. The first 5 home were drawn 9, 15, 13, 14, 12. Society Rock came home 6th having been drawn in stall 1. He's drawn low Again today, so we'll just have to hope the race pans out okay for him. He looks a good each-way bet to me at 13/2 given his course form. He's definitely good enough to win this, but will face a tricky task up against two thriving horses. 3.00 - 2pts e/w Banimpire @ 9/1 (Bet365) Banimpire has had a very busy season - running no fewer than 11 times since March - but she seems to have thrived on it as she's picked up 6 wins in the process, among some other good efforts. She progressed well to win the Ribblesdale over course and distance and only just failed to beat Blue Bunting in the epic finish of the Irish Oaks. She won over a trip slightly on the short side over 10f back in Ireland before flopping somewhat in the Yorkshire Oaks. However, she raced keenly on the testing ground and it just caught her out when it mattered. She bounced back last time again over 1m2f in France in a decent race, and now back at Ascot with ideal conditions, can put it to her rivals. 4.10 Ascot - 1.5pts e/w Dubai Prince @ 8/1 (Bet365) Dermot Weld hailed Dubai Prince as the best 2yo he'd trained before his move to Godolphin, and he looks like he'll be every bit as good at 3 and 4 also. He's extremely unexposed relative to the rest of the field, and could be very good indeed in my opinion. He beat Seville on his debut and then destroyed a Group 3 field before having a break from the track. The absence did no harm as he won well at Newbury from two next time out winners (the 2nd by 9l). He'll come on plenty for that, and even though this is a step up in class, I think he's capable of making it.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread It is my duty to update this, as much as I wanted the thread to disappear into thin air, so here goes... Total bets: 240 Won : 27 Placed (winning horses excluded): 63 Total staked: 687pts Total returned: 610.15pts Total P/L: -76.85pts I am naturally gutted with the way things panned out in the end, because at one point I genuinely thought I was getting somewhere. I have to take solace in the fact that I always thought I had a better grip on jumps racing, and that a lot of my horses did make the frame, and unfortunately not the winner's enclosure enough. This thread will now turn predominantly into a national hunt thread although some flat racing will still be posted in here - for example I will have a look at the Melbourne Cup and then I have at least one selection on the level tomorrow. Hopefully there will be greater success over timber. Let's hope so :hope

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread First things first, though... 4.00 Flemington - 1pt e/w Unusual Suspect @ 40/1 and 1pt e/w Manighar @ 40/1 (Bet365) I will take two against the field in this big race, both with live each-way chances in my opinion. To begin with, Unusual Suspect caught my eye when assessing the Caulfield Cup - a race which often has a good bearing on the Melbourne Cup - even if it is over a shorter distance. The horse that many are latching onto is Lucas Cranach, and understandably so, but the boat seems to have gone now he's in to around 10/1, and I'll happily take a punt on another horse who was eyecatching in the race. Unusual Suspect travelled strongly in the rear at Caulfield, but only had one or two rivals in behind him as they turned for home. He really found once asked to pick up, and made relentless ground up in the straight, despite having to be switched at one point, to go down 3l in 6th. He was about 17th turning in, so it was a very encouraging effort. He's had plenty of racing in his time, and most on dirt or a fast surface. His sire didn't seem to handle cut in the ground so this, along with the trip, are natural concerns. He shaped as if he would relish a step up in trip in the Caulfield Cup, and he has proven he stays 1m4f well. He went down by just 1/2l over 1m6f in the USA so there is plenty of hope on that score. He returned to the track this year in a Group 2 at Moonee Valley when given little hope by the bookmakers. There was cut in the ground on this occasion, and he outran his price to finish 4th behind Rekindled Interest over an insufficient mile - beaten under 3l. The winner himself has since run very soundly in relation to the Melbourne Cup - including finishing ahead of the Caulfield Cup winner, and just behind Glass Harmonium and Mourayan. Everything adds up quite favourably for Unusual Suspect, and for these reasons, 40/1 looks very nicely overpriced. He's drawn in 7 which is a good draw, and those held up often fare well in the race. As for Manighar, this is another horse who I feel could get into the frame. I would be a lot more confident had he been drawn lower - 21 being far from ideal - but he's happy to sit in behind horses so hopefully he won't be forced too wide. If he wasn't 40/1 I probably wouldn't be interested in him anywhere near as much. I don't think it is derogatory or particularly concerning that the Cumani yard believed Bauer was their best hope of lifting the cup, because had he made the cut, I would have had him down as having a favourite's chance. Manighar himself, though, has plenty of high-class form, and usually runs a sound enough race. The trip and the ground suit ideally, and his record includes a narrow 2nd to last year's hero Americain over in France last August. Manighar is 11lbs better off on this occasion following a sound run in last year's Caulfield Cup before managing 7th (making up 9 places inside the final 2f) from a wide draw in the Melbourne Cup. He's returned this year with some equally good form, including a 1l 3rd to Duncan in the Yorkshire Cup and a respectable 5th in the Ascot Gold Cup (looking a threat before not getting home). He's followed the same steps as last year in terms of preparation for this, including a sound run in France behind Jukebox Jury (7lbs better off today) and a good run in the Caulfield Cup. He was beaten 3l in 4th, and looked a live threat up the straight before not quite seeing his challenge through. A lot of his best form has come with some give in the ground (112135734 on ground softer than good). The 5 and the 7 coming in his Australian Runs last year and the 4 in the Ascot Gold Cup where he didn't get home. He's arguably in better form this time around, and I think has a sound chance of getting involved. He ran well from stall 19 last year and with a little bit of improvement this year, can put in another good showing so long as Damien Oliver can get him into a decent position from his tricky draw. Connections reach for the blinkers for the first time which is another interesting angle which could squeeze a bit more out of him, as he does often look a big threat before not quite going through with his effort. You look sure to get a run for your money regardless, and it's just a shame he's not drawn lower as I think he'd have a very sound chance.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread +7pts from the early morning as Manighar scrambled into one of the 5 available places with Bet365. Unusual Suspect ran a very good race also, though, having been one of the last to turn in, he stayed on well up the straight to be a respectable 9th - and in a few more strides would have been challenging for a place himself. Will be keeping flat and jumps records separate, by the way. 3.50 Exeter - 1.5pts e/w Meet The Critics @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) - 1/4 odds Meet The Critics is a lightly raced 8yo from the Brendan Powell yard. A stable not in the best of form with no winners from 10 runners in October, but I liked the way Meet The Critics ran for a long way at Wetherby on his seasonal debut, and I think he has a solid each-way chance in this competitive handicap chase. Noel Fehily has a 23% strike rate with Brendan Powell, making a very sound level stakes profit in the process. He's on board today for the first time since a bumper run, and his booking looks a good one. Meet The Critics is a multiple point winner, which always suggested his future would be over the larger obstacles. His first couple of runs under rules weren't quite so promising, when well held in a bumper and a maiden hurdle. However, he found his stride to be 2nd in an Ascot hurdle race on his next start, behind the solid yardstick Hellfire Club. He couldn't repeat the feat at Aintree next time out, finishing well-beaten once more, but bounced back to be beaten 4l at Worcester. He was off the track for several months before returning to face fences for the first time under rules, and he made a winning start. He tended to jump right - not ideal at a left-handed track such as Newbury - so his performance can be upgraded. The form looks rock solid with the 3rd winning twice since - including yesterday. The 5th won next time out and the 6th went down by less than a length on his subsequent start. Again, he was off the track until last month, when reappearing as favourite for a Wetherby chase. He jumped and travelled fairly well, looking a menace as he started to make headway on the leaders just before turning for home. However, he seemed to run out of gas and shaped as if needing the race - highly possible even if he has shown good form fresh before. That trip also looks a couple of furlongs too short, so today will suit better. The Wetherby race wasn't a bad one either, won by the progressive Persian Gates - who was in front 4 out in a listed race at the same venue when coming to grief since. The race today should suit my selection in that there's plenty of runners and he can switch off towards the rear. He should get a pace to bring him into the race nicely, and should be fully fit in order to pick up the prize. He'll have to avoid any spillages seen as he looks likely to be held up, but should he do so, I can see a big run coming.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.30 Kempton - 1.5pts e/w Dorothy's Dancing @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) - 1/5 odds Dorothy's Dancing bombed out on testing ground last time out, but her previous form brings her right into this, and with a yard in good form, should go well with conditions to suit. She cut little ice in three maidens - though shaped slightly better on her only try on the all-weather - but soon found her stride when switched to handicaps off a lowly mark. She scored on her handicap debut over 5f at Lingfield despite running green, and proved this was no fluke with another narrow success over the same c&d next time out. She only went down by 3/4l on her next start, despite looking the likely winner, although the winner has won again since, and the 2nd is a very consistent animal for all he doesn't win very often. That run was off today's mark of 59, so she's definitely capable of getting involved off this sort of mark. That was at Kempton also so there are no concerns with today's conditions. She did manage to switch her form to the turf when only beaten 1l in 4th at Windsor with the 1st, 2nd and 3rd all winning since. She had a break from May to August, when competing in a soft ground race at Sandown, which she just didn't handle, finishing a well-beaten 4th - though the margin exaggerated by the winner's 7l victory. The 3rd horse has finished a close 2nd and 1st in two starts since, though. She's been off the track since that August run, but has won fresh before so hopefully it isn't much of a concern. The cheekpieces return from her sound Windsor run, and back on the polytrack will suit her. Gary Moore was only operating at 3% and 5% strike rates in August and September respectively, but his form shot up to 22% (7-32) in October so things look much brighter at the moment. Hopefully he can continue this form into November with this filly, who is drawn well in stall 2.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.30 Kempton - 1pt e/w Plym @ 12/1 (Bet365) - 1/4 odds I posted this prior to her handicap debut at Salisbury:

6.30 Salisbury - 5pts win Plym @ 6/1 (Hills) - BOG I wrote this as one of my horses to follow: Her runs in maiden have been promising and last time out was given a very gentle ride by William Buick but was going on at the finish. Ground an unknown but the mile trip will suit and she's off a very lowly mark of 62. She'll be better than that, and can take this on her handicap debut.

I managed to call it correctly, as she made virtually all to score quite nicely in the end. The form worked out well, also, with the 2nd winning well since, the 3rd losing narrowly since, the 4th winning next time out, the 5th beaten 2l last time out, the 6th beaten 1/2l last time out, the 7th winning twice since, and the 8th winning last time out. I still thought there was more to come off a mark of 68, but she really disappointed at Windsor last time. Frankie MacDonald just couldn't get her into a good position, as she will ideally race up with the pace. He was always just struggling with her, and she hit a customary flat spot, before keeping on a little bit. The race was gone after a furlong really, and I think it may pay to forgive her that effort. The step back to 7f today is hardly reassuring, but there's still some scope from this mark in my opinion, and a stronger jockey today in Jimmy Fortune should see her in better light. He should be able to work her into a better position from a good draw in stall 2, and keep her going late on. She can't be seen to her best effect with a lightweight jockey on board, so it's a better jockey booking today. It looks a decent nursery so it will be tricky to win, but she's well worth an each-way punt at 12/1 in the hope that she bounces back from the disappointment last time. I think she will, but we'll have to wait and see if that will be today or some time in the future.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.40 Redcar - 1pt e/w Eijaaz @ 20/1 (Bet365) - 1/4 odds Although Eijaaz's best form comes at Catterick, and he struggles to win handicaps, I see him as overpriced today at 20/1. He does have some rock solid form at Redcar despite his Catterick love, registering 2 c&d wins as well as some placed efforts. The 10f trip does seem to suit him well, even though he's capable at 1m4f, I always have thought today's trip doesn't inconvenience him. He travels into his races great, and is usually there or there abouts at Catterick. He does most of his racing there now, but won last time he ran at Redcar in a claimer from two 70+ rated horses with the 2nd running well twice on his next two starts in handicaps. He's run sound races in handicaps too recently, and I think he is capable of getting involved off this sort of mark. He has won a handicap off 61 - what he runs off today - and ran solid a 4th and 5th off 63 recently. He flopped last time, but that was no surprise on soft ground as he's much better on a sound surface. It may be difficult for him to break his handicap voodoo today, but at 20/1, he's worth a small investment back on a suitable surface.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Argh that's disappointing. Dorothy's Dancing took it up entering the final furlong, and was run out of it into 4th close home. Drifted out to 11s and pulled far, far too hard for the first 3f. Wins if she settled.

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Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Flat season continues to disappoint. Dorothy's Dancing paid for her early exertions when ridiculously keen. Still managed to be leading with 1/2f to race unbelievably, but ran out of it into 5th late on at 11/1. Eijaaz ran a cracker to be 5th of 15 @ 25/1 so no complains there. Plym was taken on for the lead, but ran better than last time. The 7f was a little bit too sharp also but she kept on fairly well to say she'd gone hard early on. More races in her over a mile with a good jockey on. Most disappointing for me was the exclusion of Meet The Critics from the chase at Exeter. I was very keen on his chances so that's a real shame. Break even on the day, thanks to Manighar. The horses ran decent races at sweet prices so can't have too many complaints.