Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread That's what I'm clinging onto anyway...Just need a couple of winners to get the feel good factor back. I've said before in this thread not to listen to me after races. I simply use the thread to release my frustration when I've just seen a horse chinned on the line. Whether it's justified or not, the horse, jockey, or another horse - they're going to get my wrath! So please don't read anything into it.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

That's what I'm clinging onto anyway...Just need a couple of winners to get the feel good factor back. I've said before in this thread not to listen to me after races. I simply use the thread to release my frustration when I've just seen a horse chinned on the line. Whether it's justified or not, the horse, jockey, or another horse - they're going to get my wrath! So please don't read anything into it.

You are definately doing the right things, 70% of your horses go very close, things will fall your way bud, keep at it, dont let it get the better of you, more positive thinking wouldnt be a bad thing,,,, keep em coming, think happy thoughts when selecting your horses :)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Total bets: 203 Won: 24 Placed: 55 Total staked: 563pts Total returned: 522.95pts Total P/L: -40.05

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2 I like at Goodwood tomorrow. Need to take a look at the rest of the cards first though. Not terrible fare for a Sunday.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 1.55 Goodwood - 3pts win Cunning Act @ 5/1 (PaddyPower) - BOG Jonathan Portman's yard are flying at the minute, and I'm confident he can extend his run with a big effort from Cunning Act today. The trainer is operating at a 25% strike rate so far in September which is very impressive for a trainer not renowned for having classy animals. Cunning Act is only a 3-year-old and shaped as if needing a trip in just about every start he made until he finally got off the mark in a maiden handicap over today's c&d back in June. He stayed on determinedly to edge of Stagecoach Danman on that occasion - a horse who himself has improved since. The race wasn't a terrible one considering it was a maiden with another horse in Lemon Drop Red who has progressed better this season. Cunning Act ran a sound race over 13f at Newmarket to be 3rd of 9, but just lacked the speed in the final furlong. The horse looks an out-and-out stayer who doesn't do anything quickly, but stays well and grinds it out late on. This is exactly what he did when winning at Sandown 2 starts ago. He showed a really good attitude under pressure to wear down the leader and eventually forge on. This performance suggested 2 miles would hold no fears whatsoever. You can forgive him last times effort, even though it wasn't all that bad. He finished 8th of 19 at York behind Parlour Times - keeping on but not at the pace to challenge. He does lack the finishing kick over 14f, especially in good races as this one was. The winner is very decent and so were the rest of the horses in the field. This represents a considerable drop in class and he gets his first run at 2 miles. This should be a benefit to him and he can show his stamina in the finish. The soft ground is a slight concern but he ran well enough when encountering it before. There's still some scope off his mark now upped to 2 miles and I expect him to be tough to beat. He's by a horse who stayed 12f and his dam stayed 2 miles so I don't think the trip is going to be anything other than a help. Should be bang there at the finish.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Meant to say "today's course" not "c&d".

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.15 Curragh - 1pt e/w Winning Impact @ 28/1 (Boyles) Can't help but feel this horse is overpriced for this 7f contest, even though races with these jockeys on board don't really appeal to me! I know the square root of nothing about this one's rider, Lily Le Pemp, other than she has one of the better names in the field. However, first of all, races in these amateur races often tend to favour those racing prominently. It's often difficult for apprentice riders to galvanise horses from the rear so long as they don't go horrifically quick up front, and this horse likes to race in a handy position. This 4-year-old gelding should be a good ride in a race like this, and actually has some sound form in the book. He's only ever really run one bad race in 7 starts and that was last time. However, he was drawn 16 of 16 at Galway, the race virtually starting on a right hand bend so my selection was forced about 8 wide rounding the turn and never had a good position. The blinkers were on for the first time (withdrawn today) and this may not have suited the horse either. He returned this season with an effort in a Premier Handicap over 1 mile and finished a very respectable 5th. He was off a lowly 77 with several in the 90s. The race today looks a fair bit easier than what he contested there, and his race inbetween that one and Galway. He was beaten 3 1/2l by Sean Og Coulston and the race worked out quite well. The winner ran well since and the 3rd, 4th and 6th have also come out of the race and done well. He's better drawn today and the jockey can get him into a handy position. He's run well both times he's encountered cut in the ground and he's slowly dropping down the handicap. He's consistent, this looks a little bit easier than what he's been contesting, and the trainer is going well - 2nd of 14 and 3rd of 26 with 2 runners in the last fortnight.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread A no sweat victory. What's happening?! :loon

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Ramona Chase wins. Unbelievable! The one time I don't back :cry

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread -27.05pts.

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Absolutely nothing from off the pace. Nothing. She holds him right up and stays on well. Have him up with the pace. I know you take that risk in these races but 6 out of 7 races he's been prominent. Would have gone close had he done so today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.40 Yarmouth - 1pt e/w Makheelah @ SP I posted this prior to her most recent run:

3.00 Brighton - 2pts win Makheelah @ 10/1 (Bet365) - BOG I think this horse is a stonking price in a pretty poor fillies handicap over a trip just short of 7f. 10/1 in a 6-runner field is well overpriced in my opinion, even though she ran an absolute stinker last time out. She's only had 6 runs to date, and receives weight for her age. She ran well on debut at Doncaster over 7f when 4th of 10, beaten just over 2 lengths. Her next two runs can be excused for the ground being too soft at Yarmouth over a mile, and her next run came after a long break back on quicker ground at the same track. She bounced back to form with a close 3rd behind Icebuster over 7f at Leicester. She then ran well in a tough handicap at Doncaster when just fading over the mile behind the decent Submission. The form of that race looks a lot stronger than what she races against today. She was only beaten 4l. She shaped as if wanting 7f on good ground after that, but she got a mile on soft ground again, and she bombed last time out. She'd done it before on soft ground so it was no surprise, and I expect her to bounce back under ideal conditions today - on a slipping mark, and receiving weight.

Unfortunately the rain came that day at Brighton, leaving her with little chance on very testing ground. She failed to get involved - another thing about Brighton that day was nothing was coming from off the pace and pretty much if you bagged the stands side rail you won the race. Tomorrow, unless there's a lot of rain coming, she'll be racing on quick ground. She also has dropped in the handicap to enter this 0-60 right at the ceiling mark. It's a very weak contest, and although I think 7f is perhaps better for her, she might be able to get away with it in such a modest event. The cheekpieces are added for the first time and if she reproduces anything like her Doncaster form she'd be tough to beat here off 60. She was a reasonably expensive purchase and I think she can start paying that back slowly with a big run here! Looks set to be around a 10/1 chance which probably won't be the case come the off, but that's much too big for a horse who hasn't had conditions to suit of late.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread For the second time in a row, the rain poured down changing the going (described as soft by jockeys after the first!!). Thankfully the race was so bad Makheelah could manage a modest 3rd so no loss on her. However, would have gone much closer on better ground.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.20 Yarmouth - 2pts e/w Piano @ 8/1 (VC) - BOG This filly has progressed into listed company and despite having failed to win one, might be able to do so today. She has a couple of rivals whom at the weights should be tough to beat, but I wouldn't get carried away with their chances, and several of these runners look to be making a big step up in class - therefore the 8/1 each-way about Piano looks fair to me. First of all, the favourite, Modeyra, would obviously have a huge chance if reproducing her most recent form, but I'd question if she's just better after a break. Her previous run when "race fit" was her poorest and if she repeats that, she'll be beaten today. I hope this will be the case. Even if she does prove too strong, I'm confident my selection can make the frame. Principal Role is the other, who beat Piano by a length at Newcastle earlier this season. That horse clearly enjoys a quicker surface, shown when dropping out at Windsor last time out. Despite the going being descibed as good officially, it will ride slower than that it seems, which will suit my selection more. Yarmouth is a track which clearly holds no fears for Piano - having comprehensibly won a handicap here earlier in the year by 3 1/4l. She was thrown into listed company from then on and ran a good 2l 5th to Timepiece - who went on to win a Group 1 this year. The Newcastle run followed this and most recently, Piano was 4th behind Primevere, Opera Gal (won next time out) and Seta (good listed filly). She's been facing rock solid listed fillies, but I think today isn't as competitive. She's capable of getting involved and I'll be disappointed if she doesn't make the frame.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 5.00 Yarmouth - 2pts e/w Fantasy Gladiator @ 7/1 (PaddyPower) - BOG

5.05 Ascot - 3pts win Fantasy Gladiator @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) This horse has never won on turf, but I think today could be his day. First Post is possibly a deserving favourite, but I'm wary of his tendencies to hang (probably throwing race away at Sandown recently), and is worth taking on in my opinion, with a horse who I think has been a little bit unlucky of late. He destroyed a Kempton field off a mark of 80 in December and runs off a turf mark of 79 today. There are no questions that he goes on turf, he just simply is probably better on the all-weather. Some of his better turf runs have come on softish ground, so I'm very hopeful of a big run today. All of his turf runs have been good this year, after excuses of a break on his first start of the season. He stayed on well in the blanket finish at Sandown, where Norman Orpen won, and First Post hung badly. He took a keen hold over 10f at Chester but ran well enough to say it was a little bit too taxing on the stamina front. His effort at Salisbury can be well excused when racing on the wrong part of the track - the first four were clear and were centre to far side - Fantasy Gladiator ran stands side. Everything went against him over today's c&d last time out, when losing his position and unable to find a run for ages, and could never get dangerous despite staying on when clear. Conditions clearly suit today, and I think he'll go very close if the breaks come.

Expected him to run well that day - and he did to finish a 1/2l 2nd to First Post. He was behind that horse next time out but in 6th place, at Sandown. He stayed on, but when they come stands side there, it's often difficult to come from off the pace. I wouldn't be too concerned about that, and he bounced back with respectable efforts since. Ran 2nd over 7f at Yarmouth - going down 1l to Cloud Rock (now won last 2). 1 mile suits better and he may have won over an extra furlong. Ran well off his higher A/W mark at Kempton last time in the London Mile Handicap final to be 3rd - confirming he's still in good form. That race is quite hot and I think he's capable of winning on the turf today on the back of that. The track suits, the ground should hold no fears, and the race doesn't look quite as strong as those he's been contesting over a mile. Looks a good each-way bet anyway.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.40 Sandown - 1pt e/w Abergeldie @ 20/1 (Hills) - BOG Abergeldie is a quirky customer, but the drop back to a mile today should suit, and she's capable of striking back down at this mark. 20/1 looks overpriced for this one on the back of a poor effort over 1m2f. The visor was applied to this one at Chepstow, and it had the desired effect as she powered to victory by 3 1/4l. The 2nd has won twice and been second since so the form looks strong. Next time out, the Andrew Balding trained filly was upped in grade for a Grade 2 at Ascot behind Rave. She kept on to be 6th of 11, but was always likely to struggle in such competitive company given she lacks that real kick of speed. That race was better than this one, though, and following this run and the 10f run last time, she's been dropped by the handicapper to a mark of 71 - just 5lbs higher than her Chepstow rout. This looks very fair to me, and I think she's going to run well today. There are some potentially useful unexposed types in the field but not the sort of animals she faced at Ascot on her penultimate start. Everything looks in her favour today against her own sex, with the trip and ground perfectly fine. She should outrun her price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.40 Yarmouth - 1.5pts e/w Hartside @ 9/1 (Hills) - BOG Sir Michael Stoute's horses often need their first run, and it certainly looked this way with this horse. He sent three horses to Sandown for the race, with this Derby entry proving the most popular in the market as he was sent off at 9/1. He raced prominently early, before losing his place. When he tried to get back into the race he had no run and then was hampered. He wouldn't have gone close but kept on a bit late on. He's bound to come on for that, and he is bred to go okay as a 2yo. His dam won on her second start, and the ground looks a valid excuse. His dam struggled on soft - no surprise coming from a quick ground sire and the ground was on the softer side at Sandown. The ground today is good, good to firm in places and drying all the time. He should come on bundles for the first run and with the ground more in his favour. He's clearly well thought of at home to hold a Derby entry, and to be sent off as the favourite of the three Stoute runners in the Sandown maiden.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Sorry about the write-ups here but busy sorting stuff for the big Uni move on Sunday at the moment! 3.55 Ayr - 2pts e/w Layla's Hero @ 9/1 (Hills) - BOG Naturally this Bronze Cup is wide open, but Layla's Hero looks well handicapped now his career looks set to return to the 6f races. 5 of his 6 career wins have come over this trip (other 5f) including 3 soft ground successes. His mark shot up to a mark of 104 having won 5 from 7 in 2009, and this mark meant it was difficult to cut ice in handicaps since. He was also campaigned mainly over further but now his mark has come back down, he looks well capable of landing this competitive event. He came back to form when a close 3rd at Redcar over 7f under today's rider, and confirmed he was back in business when winning decisively at Newcastle under similar conditions to today. Jamie Spencer was confident in the saddle before delivering a strong effort to win with plenty to spare. He won by 1 1/4l and runs off just 5lbs higher today. He's well up to winning again so long as he's positioned on the right part of the track. He previously won a 6f handicap by 4 1/2l (race worth 15k to the winner) off a mark of 83 so it's pretty concrete that he's capable of winning off 85 today. His new yard have rejuvenated him and can give John Quinn a good winner today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.10 Ayr - 2pts win Trail Blaze @ 5/1 (Hills) - BOG I think this price is quite generous actually, as I feel he should be right up on terms with the favourite in this race. He's done little wrong in three starts to date and connections clearly feel a maiden is within his grasp based on the fact they don't pitch him straight into a handicap now he has a mark of 75. He raced freely on his debut over 7f at Haydock but ran respectably to finish 5th. Naturally he came on plenty for the run to only go down by 3/4l over today's c&d behind Loukas with the pair well clear. He showed a good attitude on this occasion but found it difficult giving weight away to the filly and that horse had a capable 7lb claimer on board also. Trail Blaze was 2nd again last time out - this time over a mile on soft ground. He just got run out of it late on, and shaped as if a return to 7f would be ideal. The winner deserved to get his head in front, and again the front two pulled a couple of lengths clear. It didn't look a bad maiden and I think he can strike today. Strictly Silver rates as the main danger for me, but is unproven on the ground, so I feel my selection is the solid bet in the race, and can take the beating.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.35 Newbury - 1.5pts e/w The Only Key @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Jane Chapple-Hyam has her string in good order and this gutsy mare has done well since joining her new yard back in May. She took a couple of runs to find her stride since moving to these shores, but since then has only put in one under-par performance when trying 1m4f for the first time. She didn't get home that day, but her efforts over today's 1m2f trip have been consistent and very respectable. She deservedly got her head in front at Sandown when running with some give in the ground back in June - winning from subsequent decisive winner All Action. Her runs since have suggested she can win again off this career high mark of 85, but hasn't had any softer conditions in these runs. She enjoys getting her toe in a bit, so conditions today look ideal. She finished 4th over the same c&d as her victory on her next start and last time out ran another very respectable race when 3rd of 15 at Haydock behind impressive winner Dhaamer. It looked a rock solid handicap and certainly has been facing competition tougher than what she races against today. However, there are some unexposed types in the field. I do think that her tenacity and experience will give her an edge today and the drop in class combined with her ideal conditions with the ground will make her tough to beat. She looks a solid each-way bet.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread That's Newbury, of course :spank

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread :sad

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Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Typical day really. Win bet 2nd, two each-way bets narrowly out of the frame. 3.05 Newbury - 1pt e/w Moriarty @ 28/1 (Boyles) I posted this prior to his last run:

8.00 Newmarket - 4pts win Moriarty @ 11/4 (Hills) - BOG This is a bit of a trappy affair, and it might not suit Moriarty, but everything else should, having raced in some unsuitable conditions recently. He had an excellent year in 2010 when winning twice, before only just losing to the useful Dordogne on his return in 2011. He went up in trip in Ireland when chasing home Alexander Pope - finishing well - and that horses 7l defeat to Nathaniel reads very well. Moriarty was visored at Royal Ascot, but didn't enjoy the soft conditions, before racing keen and not getting home over 12f last time out. The return to 10f on good ground should see him go extremely close tonight, and I think his class will tell. I just hope it isn't a farce.

I did fear the contest wouldn't suit him, and it didn't. This horse seems to enjoy cover and coming off a good pace, but had to make his own running in this race. He raced quite awkwardly late on and once he'd been swallowed up by the 1st and 2nd horses, he started to stay on well again before being short of room. Would have been closer. He just doesn't want to be in front for too long I think so reverting back to held-up tactics should see him in much better light today. It's no real negative that Richard Hughes rides Labarinto for Sir Michael Stoute given that one is the market leader and my selection is a 28/1 shot. However, Richard Hannon has his string going well again and I think Moriarty is overpriced now he'll have conditions to suit. The ground would ideally be on the quicker side of good, but it looks like it will be decent ground so long as we don't get rain. The going is currently good to soft (good in places) so if it remains dry, I don't anticipate a problem for this horse. His runs this year have been good, mixed with unsuitable races. He returned to the track as good as ever when a narrow 3rd in a listed event, before chasing home the smart Alexander Pope over in Ireland. That horse since ran 3rd to Nathaniel - obviously very good form. His effort on soft ground with the visor tried can safely be ignored, as can his headstrong run over 12f which he was unlikely to stay anyway. His latest run wasn't terrible under the circumstances and the form has been boosted as the winner, Barbican, followed up in a very valuable race at Ascot. Moriarty runs off 97 today with Sean Levey's 3lb claim making that essentially 94, off which he is undoubtedly well handicapped. So long as the ground doesn't go against him, he'll get the cover and pace to run at in this big field. He certainly looks overpriced and I'm happy to retain the faith so long as the ground isn't too testing.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.15 Ayr - 1pt e/w Ginger Ted @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes) I posted this prior to his Doncaster run:

4.20 Doncaster - 2pts win Ginger Ted @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG One piece of form stands out in this race for me, and it is Ginger Ted's effort behind subsequent Stewards Cup winner Hoof It at York. Ginger Ted finished to good effect to be 3rd, beaten under 2l by the Nunthorpe entrant. He's been in cracking form this year for Richard Guest, and can be excused for his poorer performances. The horse doesn't want rattling quick ground, so I can let him off his poor run at Hamilton. His run prior to that at Newcastle when he was well fancied, he was given a poor ride before staying on very well when too late. I think he's quick enough to handle the drop back to 5f today with the ground not too quick for him. This looks quite a bit easier than the company he faced last time, and I think he's very capable on a track that will suit, so long as he's produced at the right time. Big favourites chance.

His last two runs haven't really worked since connections dropped him back to 5f. He lacks the early pace and has been finished to good effect, but could never get involved. It could be a similar case here even over 6f with the pace on and not much came from the rear yesterday - but at this huge price he's certainly worth a small e/w bet. Especially when you consider Fathsta is the favourite for the race. That horse has obvious chances but was 1 1/4l behind my selection at York and Ginger Ted looks weighted to confirm that form. The step up to 6f is a godsend for Ginger Ted and his three runs at the track have seen 1 win and 1 second. The blinkers are on for the first time since early in his career which is interesting. It hopefully won't be a negative and if it can bring a bit more improvement out of him then that's all good! His draw in 13 doesn't look the best, but he's going to be held up so Darryl Holland can hopefully position him alright. It's a good jockey booking as this horse has suffered from weak rides at times. He looks to have a big each-way chance if he isn't too inconvenienced by his central draw.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Ginger Ted legless. No words...

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Yep take it up with 4 furlongs to race. Braindead.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Disastrous spell. Off to uni tomorrow morning so not sure when I'll be back posting regularly. Likely to take a short break before returning. Good luck guys if I'm not around.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Sorry about this but not much time and very keen on her today: 3.10 Curragh - 3pts win Remember Alexander @ 5/1 (PP) The ground has come for her today and even though she couldn't challenge Maybe last time out, that run has worked out well with the winner winning since and Lightening Pearl (3rd) scoring at Newmarket. I think she has conditions perfect today and looks sure to be involved in the finish. Should be just about favourite in my book.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.15 Ascot - 3pts win Genki @ 7/2 (Bet365) - BOG I think quite a lot of horses have a bit to find in this field, but one horse with no question marks about his class is Roger Charlton's Genki. He's won at this level before and his recent runs have been enough to put him right in the picture today. He's got an excellent strike rate of 8-32, made more impressive considering he's often campaigned in very competitive sprint fields of good quality. Roger Charlton's yard are going well of late and this looks a cracking opportunity for Genki to add another Group victory to his name. He enjoys quick ground with 6 of his 8 career wins coming on ground good or better. Since winning the Group 3 at Newcastle (when missing break), he was better than his finishing position in the July Cup when 6th of 16 (ahead of Elzaam) when slowly away and also finding trouble in running before finishing to good effect. The 7f trip wasn't ideal on soft ground over in France but still ran a great 4th to Moonlight Cloud with several genuine Group 1 contenders in the mix (including Society Rock and Dream Ahead). He came with his effort stands side in the thrilling Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock but still only finished about 1 1/2l behind Dream Ahead. Again he had Elzaam held 2l behind and I'm confident he can confirm this form today. This looks an ideal opportunity for the horse to bag another race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.50 Ascot - 2pts e/w Smarty Socks @ 7/1 (Bet365) - BOG I don't think a 6lb rise in the weights will be enough to stop David O'Meara's progressive Smarty Socks, even in this competitive Challenge Cup. He can often be slowly away which is naturally a concern, but he won in very ready fashion over c&d last time out and will be tough to beat if getting out on terms today. His recent efforts have been excellent. He was unlucky to go down by 1l at Goodwood having blown the start before running on strongly. He only found one too good at York the time after, when seemingly looking like a mile was slightly too far having made smooth headway to lead late on. The return to 7f did the trick at Ascot when he travelled supremely well before finding at the business end to draw on to win by a decisive length. There looked plenty in the tank that day which suggests to me that the penalty for that win may not stop him. It's hard to see him not in the mix anyway, so I'll happily have a decent each-way bet on him.