Rupert's Racing Thread

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Yip, nobody deserves it more than you Rupert.. You didnt give up when the times were bad, thats the key! :clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Cheers Aidy. I may be a grumpy bastard when things aren't going well, but I'll keep going for sure.

[BillyHills]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Well done mate :clap

[punterpete]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Nice winner with decoy matey. Well done. :nana:nana:nana

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Reasoning later... 3.10 Cheltenham - 2pts e/w Cantlow @ 8/1 (Hills)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.10 Cheltenham - 2pts e/w Cantlow @ 8/1 (Hills) Many of these look likely to be outclassed, but one who certainly won't be is Paul Webber's Cantlow. He's showed abundant promise in all starts to date and is expected to put in a very bold showing tomorrow. He's a big horse who was always likely to need a trip, and once he was stepped up to 3 miles on just his second hurdling start, he managed to get his head in front - narrowly from a very useful in both codes Swingkeel. He went straight to Aintree on just his third start over hurdles in the Sefton Novices Hurdle, and unsurprisingly went off at a price of 28/1. However, he ran a stormer to finish second. He was beaten 4l and his cause wasn't helped by his jumps in the latter stages of the race. He returned to the track for the John Smiths hurdle at Wetherby just a couple of weeks ago, but similarly to stable star Time For Rupert, looked as if he was carrying a bit of condition (not surprising since both are quite large horses to start with). He did show a lack of fitness in the closing stages, but what came before that was highly promising. He travelled wide, off the leaders, and cruised into contention before they turned for home. He looked a huge threat but once the button was pressed, he didn't respond, and his jumping went to pot. However, he travelled supremely well in a higher quality race than what he contests here, and with the fitness on his side now, should be able to go through with his effort in the closing stages. He looks to have plenty of stamina in him (not surprising given his breeding), so this test looks sure to suit. I think he's the classiest horse in the line-up that is proven and many of these have to progress from much weaker contests - even if there is plenty of potential there. I can't see any reasons for a poor run, and for that reason it's a good e/w bet for me.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 1.55 Cheltenham - 2pts e/w Chicago Grey @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes) - 1/4 odds I have Chicago Grey down as having a huge chance in this, and if it wasn't for the ominous looking Nicholls horse in Promising Anshan, I would probably be going large on just a win bet. He rated as the main danger. From the others at the head of the market, I would certainly be concerned about the jumping of Reve De Sivola and Fair Along. Balthazar King loves it here, but my selection appears to hold him on form and at the weights. The run that I base that on is from their running in October - the Phillip Hobbs trained runner won that day, but my selection was going well and was certainly close enough to strike when falling 2 out. He's a guaranteed out-and-out stayer and I believe he would have reeled back the winner. Chicago Grey is better off at the weights today also. He's shown a real liking for Cheltenham, and the testing nature of the track suits him over trips around 3 miles - as elsewhere he may lack the speed to compete over a trip that short. This will be testing enough, and so long as he gets round in one piece, looks certain to play a part in the finish. He's won twice at the venue, and looked like he'd be adding another two victories when falling on two other occasions. His only defeat when he's made it round was to the top-class Time For Rupert. The race should be run at a nice tempo for him, and if he can jump well, should be looking a huge threat under Carberry turning in.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Cracking winner there Rupert :clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 9.10 Wolverhampton - 1.5pts e/w Strategic Bid @ 16/1 (VC) I posted this before his run a while ago:

Strategic Bid is around 10/1 on the exchanges and I'll be pleased if he goes off as big as that (although market support would be telling). I have been waiting for this horse to run, and constantly been frustrated with him being entered and withdrawn from maidens. Hopefully he'll definitely go tomorrow, even if it does look a hot maiden with a tough horse to beat in Thimaar and several newcomers from powerful yards. Anyway, this is what I jotted down in my "horses to follow": He's clearly well regarded by connections, and he gets a step up in trip today. Also the tongue-tie to help him settle I hope. I think he could be a very smart animal, so even with the nature of this maiden, I'm hopeful he can be very competitive. A couple of factors would be his near 3 month absence from the track, and the form of Paul Cole's yard. He has shown signs of coming back into a little bit of form, however, with a winner yesterday, and hopefully Strategic Bid will be able to run to his best tomorrow. Money came for him on debut, so it would be telling if it comes again tomorrow - although it might mean the SP I get is shorter than his price at the moment! Anyway, I wanted to get this posted nice and early. I think he's capable of running into a place at the very least, and if he is there or there abouts, he can go on to be a good horse, given this maiden looks quite decent.

It's run this day can safely be ignored. The reins broke shortly after the start, leaving Jamie Spencer unable to steer him. He shot across to the far rail, hit the rail, pulled himself to be the leader before soon weakening and tailing off. It's naturally a concern that this expensive purchase for Paul Cole, who was entered in the Derby, has moved on to David Simcock and is such a big price for a Wolverhampton maiden, but there's no way I'm not going to have a nibble at such a price considering the massive amount of promise he showed on his debut in a decent maiden. He was arguably the one to take out of that race, and a reproduction of that, with natural improvement, will see him go close. He's well drawn, and I'm going in early at such a sweet price. Hopefully the money will come for him as it will be a crucial hint as to how well he may go. Simcock's horses are running perfectly well at the moment, and I've got to have an e/w bet on this lad.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Fantastic day yesterday mate, well done. :clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Cheers guys. I've finally come to a conclusion on the Paddy Power! 2.35 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Noble Alan @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) - 1/4 odds I went through the runners and found it reasonably easy to rule out many of them with regards to weight (if either of the top 2 win then it will have been a great effort). The stamina of others looks likely to be stretched, and those with obvious jumping faults I have decided to avoid. This is the type of race whereby jumping is going to be extra crucial, so I cannot play on horses I would normally be very interested in - The Giant Bolster, and Araldur (possibly a bit harsh on him, but he doesn't get very high at his fences which would concern me around here.) The one that I've put my finger on is the Nicky Richards trained Noble Alan. He's run many good races over fences, and would have gone close at Cheltenham behind Poquelin when falling last December. These conditions suit ideally, and he's run well on both starts at Cheltenham. He's very nicely weighted for this and there definitely looks scope to score off this mark based on that Cheltenham fall, and his run last time out. Yes, again he didn't complete, leading to the RP questioning his jumping, but having watched that last race again, I am less concerned. He in fact jumped well at Market Rasen, and cruised impressively into contention despite running freely throughout the early stages of the contest (shorter trip today). He looked the likely winner when produced on the near side to challenge at the 2nd last - and jumped the fence really well. He was unfortunate to pitch on landing and unseat Brian Harding. It would be foolish to put this defeat down to his jumping, because he didn't make a serious mistake in the whole race. He's a classy horse who looks to have conditions in his favour today. He'll need some luck from the back of the field, but if he avoids any problems, has every chance of going close so long as he does stay on his feet (inevitable he won't now, with either The Giant Bolster or Araldur winning!). Mon Parrain rates as the obvious threat, but I think it's always worth taking on the favourite in races such as this, and he's not been well supported this morning. Nicky Richards' last five runners would all have made the frame had two not unseated (1 certain to win, 1 booked for third) and hopefully he can add to his only victory at Cheltenham this afternoon. Dougie Costello goes for one ride, and let's hope it's a winning one!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Horrible jumps racing today. 1.20 Southwell - 4pts win Mount McLeod @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) I've gone against this horse on a couple of occasions given he's been the favourite and always looks like one may get the better of him, but his most recent effort at Southwell looks the best yet, and this surface might just enable him to get his head in front today. He'd been banging at the door elsewhere, but his running style suggests that the fibresand could suit him well, and he proved that last time. He was scrapping with Springheel Jake but just went down by a length in the end. I feel that's the strongest form on offer as that horse had form in some half-decent maidens relative to that race and was unexposed. The Leicester maiden he ran well enough in is rock solid, as was his 3rd to Master Bond and Takealookatmenow. I don't think it was anything of a surprise to see Ann Duffield's horse take that race on his handicap debut, so I can very much forgive my selection's second placed effort. A repeat of that sees him go very close indeed again here, and I think he can finally win today. This doesn't look as strong. Make Up did win well, but I think several of the rivals weren't in their ideal conditions and their marks are flattered. She has a wide draw also. I think my selection will reverse and hold the form with Sonsie Lass and Bountiful Catch and even though he has a relatively wide draw also in 9, the low draws are mainly occupied by outsiders so hopefully he can get across without too much fuss.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2nd again :(

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.00 Warwick - 2pts win So Fine @ 6/1 (Bet365) It is often worth taking on horses with penalties against unexposed types, but I think Philip Hobbs' 5yo is capable of carrying the extra weight to victory. He's got a nice pedigree, but was not fancied in his bumpers, even though he improved nicely for every run. He shaped a bit one-paced, but did manage to finish 2nd to Jackstown in his final bumper in a farcical race really with no pace. So Fine's best performances were always going to come over timber, and he kicked off his career over hurdles in good style, winning professionally by nearly 3l for his new yard on his seasonal debut. Knockalongi was 2nd - a horse who has since run a similar distance 2nd to the impressive in three starts (and wins) Mush Mir - so there is some substance to the form. Mush Mir is now rated 137 and the pair were clear on both runs. On handicap marks, it may be that something needs to be a nice type in the 120s to beat my selection if reading the form literally, and they need to take to the jumping game immediately, as many have not run in a hurdles race yet. It might be difficult to straight away get to the level of So Fine, so it's a win bet from me.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.10 Hexham - 1.5pts e/w Lua De Itapoan @ 8/1 (Bet365) - 1/4 odds All of his 6yo mare's runs have come on soft ground, and she's proven that she enjoys getting her toe in, having performed reasonably well on the surface. She finished midfield in a couple of starts in bumpers but she has a lot of stamina in her pedigree and it's no real surprise that it wasn't really her game. It is her handicap debut today, and I really feel this will allow her to go very close if fit after a break. Her brother won on his handicap debut, and the way she's met a couple of decent types in novice races, she's been unfortunate not to get her head in front already. She twice finished 2nd in similar conditions to today's, firstly to Alexander Road - who won his next two races also. Then to Tiptoeaway - only ran once more over hurdles but was outclassed in a hot race. Since has made a promising start to his chasing career - winning recently. Even though the 3 mile trip that she faced last time out should have suited - and may well do so in time - she raced too freely. She was hampered in the race also, and couldn't get near the leaders. They did finish at long intervals though so the losing margin is exaggerated, and the winner Eyre Square was in good form all spring/summer and won since. She's likely to get that trip once learning to settle better, but for the moment, 2m4f and a little extra on soft ground looks like it will suit her perfectly today. She does have an absence to overcome which is a slight concern, but Malcolm Jefferson's horses are going well (7 out of last 12 have placed with 2 winning), and I hope she will add to that list on her handicap debut.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Out to 12/1 from 8/1 in the minutes before the off. Inevitable ending.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Saturday was disappointing really. Cantlow and Chicago Grey didn't run anywhere near the level I expected them to. Noble Alan looked like getting involved before coming to grief 4 out, and Strategic Bid appears to have gone backwards. Mount McLeod was 2nd yesterday (need to work out flat P/L) but So Fine won today, before the drift told me everything I needed to know about Lua De Itapoan's chances as he tailed off. +9pts today takes me back up to +34.38pts on the jumps - pulling back most of what I lost on Saturday. Will work out flat (not so clever reading) before I may have selections at Kempton. If Novellen Lad wins the next at Lingfield you probably won't see me again.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread -62.75pts on the flat. 2 at Kempton to follow.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 4.40 Kempton - 3pts win Dancing Freddy @ 7/1 (VC) Dancing Freddy is by no means poor on the all-weather, so the 6lb lower mark he goes to war with on the artificial surface makes him poised to strike. His highest winning mark may well be 71 on turf, but he went down very narrowly off 79 recently which makes this all-weather mark look exploitable - and his most recent effort at Southwell suggests he's up to doing just that. He finished 3rd in a decent race won by Monsieur Jamie and he has equally sound form on polytrack. He's been placed on 7 of his 19 all-weather starts and can travel well off a decent pace which looks likely to be helped by several horses who like to be up with the pace. It only looks a matter of time before he scores on the all-weather, and from a decent draw, today can be the day as he sneaks into this 0-75 contest.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 7.10 Kempton - 4pts win Citrus Star @ 9/4 (Bet365) This is an interesting little conditions race which ends tonight's card, and even though it took Citrus Star 17 runs before encountering the all-weather, he very much suggested that it could be his home from now on. He's run many good races in decent company on turf, but the switch to the polytrack worked wonders last time at Lingfield when storming home to victory by 2 1/2l, having been drawn in stall 14. The 2nd placed horse has also hacked up today by a similar margin in a decent race for the track, so the form has been strongly franked. There are obvious threats in the race but I think Citrus Star's rating will prove to be higher on the all-weather meaning he's well capable of taking this. Oasis Dancer and Thunderball look likely to make sure it's a decent gallop, and Chris Wall's charge can take advantage.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Going to round my P/Ls up or down now just to make the figures a bit easier, so the jumps season currently stands at: Total bets: 18 Won: 5 Placed: 3 Total Staked: 51pts Total Returned: 85pts Total P/L: +34pts Just posting this as a marker in the thread and in case I lose my figures for some reason!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Flat form is too inconsistent. Far too hard to work out. I'm done with it. Finishing with shite stats of: Total bets: 268 Won : 31 Placed (winning horses excluded): 67 Total staked: 764pts Total returned: 694pts Total P/L: -70pts

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.50 Market Rasen - 3pts win Beat The Shower @ 11/2 (Hills) Beat The Shower was a winner off a mark of 107 at Hexham last June, and given his progressive nature on the flat, looks very capable of winning off 113 now returned to the jumping game. He was rated 54 on the flat at the time of this victory, but is now 22lbs higher in the handicap. He's really thrived in staying handicaps, and his relaxed style through his races looks perfect for hurdling. He will stay the 2m5f trip fine given he's a thorough stayer on the flat, and so long as he gets over his flights (failed last time), must have a big chance here in a race that's not the best. Cut in the ground suits him nicely and Peter Niven has had a couple go well recently. Barrie Burn looks the obvious threat given he was well backed last time and going well in a decent race before pulling up with something amiss.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 3.00 Hereford - 3pts win Reginaldinho @ 9/2 (Hills) The form of the Venetia Williams yard is more than a slight concern here but Reginaldinho ran some very sound races in novice hurdles last season behind some decent types. He went closest on his final start of the season, but always shaped as if handicaps would suit him much better. He tried to make all on his seasonal reappearance in a good handicap race and is bound to come on for that. It was a difficult ask anyway given the strength of the race, and the return to novice company will suit - as he is also in a handicap. This race looks very average with the top rated horse being an exposed 110 rated animal. I think Reginaldinho will improve plenty for that run, and can take the spoils here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Day to forget. -6pts as Beat The Shower drifted - over before it began, and the race did not suit Reginaldinho - who is big and one paced. Turned into a sprint.

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

Day to forget. -6pts as Beat The Shower drifted - over before it began' date=' and the race did not suit Reginaldinho - who is big and one paced. Turned into a sprint.[/quote'] I think im suffering from what you suffered from a good bit earlier in the year and i now see why you were so frustrated! Everything i have backed the past 7 days or so has either fallen when going well, beaten a nose or beaten on the line! Went into Paddy Powers this morning for a gander, backed Trap 6 in the 11:03 Sunderland and it was 2nd, then backed No. 1 in the first at Vaal and it was 2nd, backed Wise Hawk win @ 12/1 in the 1:05 Wincanton, it led and was nabbed on the line and backed Daldini @ 9/2, was backed into 5/2 and was beaten half a length by a 33/1 Jonjo O Neill horse! LOL :lol

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread

I think im suffering from what you suffered from a good bit earlier in the year and i now see why you were so frustrated! Everything i have backed the past 7 days or so has either fallen when going well' date=' beaten a nose or beaten on the line! Went into Paddy Powers this morning for a gander, backed Trap 6 in the 11:03 Sunderland and it was 2nd, then backed No. 1 in the first at Vaal and it was 2nd, backed Wise Hawk win @ 12/1 in the 1:05 Wincanton, it led and was nabbed on the line and backed Daldini @ 9/2, was backed into 5/2 and was beaten half a length by a 33/1 Jonjo O Neill horse! LOL :lol[/quote'] You're doing a good job laughing about it. It beats breaking things :lol

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 12.50 Haydock - 2pts e/w Desert Cry @ 6/1 (Boyles) - 1/4 odds I posted this prior to his run at Aintree in April:

2.00 Aintree - 1pt win Desert Cry @ 10/1 (Skybet) This Donald McCain trained 5-year-old has a bit to find on the book (rated 135), but has a progressive profile and had he won at Kelso last time out, he probably would be much closer to the main contenders on ratings. On the flat in France, Desert Cry was an 8-10f horse, consistent, if not top class. Did run 12 1/2l behind Mastery in an Italian Group 2, though. His first run on British soil came at Leicester after a break, and on its hurdling debut, he ran a promising race - keen on soft ground, and weakened to be beaten 15l late on. Was a competitive littler novice also, though, won by Credit Swap, with Alarazi finishing in 2nd. Despite taking a keen hold on better ground at Ayr on his 2nd start, he stepped up to run a very nice race behind a horse called Darna. This horse was a relatively cheap purchase for William Amos, and showed ability in bumpers before winning both his hurdle starts to date. Since, the horse was bought for £120,000 by Kim Bailey. Clearly a horse with plenty of potential. So the run by Desert Cry may well turn out to be a very good one. Desert Cry went on to win on the bridle by 13l at Sedgefield on heavy ground, crushing Maggio who has run some very respectable races over hurdles - including a 2nd next time out. Donald McCain sent Desert Cry to Kelso for his handicap debut, and he travelled up strongly looking the likely winner at the last, but was done by Bold Sir Brian's finishing power up the punishing run in, to go down by 3 3/4l. This was over 2m2f and an easier 2 miles on better ground should be right up the street of Desert Cry. The form of that Kelso run looks extremely solid. The winner looks a nice prospect, the 3rd - Wyse Hill Teabags won by 10l next time out and ran a cracker to be 3rd (beaten just over 1l) by Russian War yesterday. Moon Indigo, who finished a well-held 4th at Kelso, scrambled home at that course next time out, and the horse in 5th won by 7l next time out, also. Desert Cry has improved with every run, and it's likely that 2 miles around Aintree will really play to the horse's strengths. It's a competitive race but I'd be surprised if this one didn't run a blinder. Been consistent throughout its career, is progressive, and looks capable of surpassing his current mark. McCain has gone a surprising amount of runners without a winner, though there are signs of improvement with Reindeer Dippin, and Sports Line running sound races yesterday.

He ran well to be 5th in the end that day. He did his usual trick of pulling hard which ultimately cost him in the end. He travelled nicely and was on terms 2 out but had no more to offer between the final two flights. However, he did have a little bit to find on ratings and it was a high-class novice hurdle. Some horses have come out and not done much since - but some, such as Brampour, have flourished this season (was behind my selection at Aintree). Desert Cry carries top weight here but the race isn't as strong, and he's back in a handicap off a mark which I feel is fair. He ran up to this mark at least at Aintree and I hope another summer with Donald McCain may see him settle a bit better this time around. It's certainly worth several more lbs if he doesn't pull so hard. He's run okay fresh before so he should be more prepared than some of his rivals possibly - of which 9 are having their first jumps run of the season. The only one's which have had a run are at the bottom end of the handicap or even out of the handicap. Everything looks fine conditions wise and he should run into the frame. I think his mark is not restrictive and if he can settle a bit better, definitely can take this. Even if he doesn't, he still has a fine chance.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread 2.45 Ascot - 2pts e/w Court In Session @ 6/1 (Bet365) - 1/5 odds I may be mad backing this horse even though it's possible a repeat of the reason why he lost so badly last time could happen again here. Court In Session found himself in a fierce dual for the lead at Cheltenham last Sunday in the race won by Al Ferof. The two horses at the head of affairs scorched off and even though they jumped well, had no chance of keeping it up - with classy rivals in behind. My selection was still there at 3 out but made his first error and he weakened quickly from there on in. No surprise, given how the leaders committed suicide by forcing such a strong gallop, so not a terrible effort on his chasing debut. Even if the jockey gets involved in such a scenario here, the track at Ascot may be more forgiving - perhaps making it less likely they will come back to the field in the alarming manner that they did at Cheltenham. Even so, I'd like some common sense applied, even though this horse clearly enjoys being out in front. He's a multiple point-to-point winner and was progressive over hurdles, scoring on his final 2 starts (ran 4 times) over the smaller obstacles. The latter was an impressive win over a decent type at the track at which he runs today. He runs off a mark of 134 and that looks fair based on his course win giving 3lbs away to a 117 rated animal - with a winning distance of 14l, without having to have maximum effort applied. He showed he certainly can prove better over fences also last time, as he jumped really well in the main, and his pointing experience stands him in good stead. This run comes just 5 days after a hard race at Cheltenham which is a slight concern, but he's taken his racing really well in this early part of the season which has seen him on the track 5 times since the start of September. His only two defeats under his current trainer prior to his Cheltenham run came when 2nd in a bumper and pulled up when sent over too far over hurdles. Martin Keighley's horses have been going well with the vast majority running their races, and even with the presence of other front runners, I can see this horse going very well indeed. With a bit of luck and some common sense applied, he has conditions to suit.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Racing Thread Shame Court In Session didn't run very well, but I'll take one out of two every single day of the week. That one's run possibly came too soon and after a bit of a break, may be of interest at a nice price next time. On the contrary, Desert Cry did well to win a handicap off 135 under top weight, proving he is a high-class animal. Especially as he raced keenly as per usual. If McCain can get him to settle better, he could be a real animal. As it was, he did get tired in the closing stages and better horses might be able to do him at the finish when he pulls hard. However, the way in which he travelled and sliced through the pack at the business end was impressive. Nice horse. +11pts on the day, taking the season's total to +39pts. Cannot wait for tomorrow for numerous reasons. Leeds on TV at lunchtime, some good racing during the day (and I have a few strong fancies already), and a good evening with my mates who I haven't seen for a while. Let's hope it turns out as good as it sounds!