Rupert's Racing Thread

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.00 York - 1pt e/w Descaro @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG David O'Meara's string are flying at the moment, so it would be foolish to rule out Descaro today with conditions more in his favour than recently. The trainer is operating at a great strike rate with 6 of his last 12 runners in the money, 4 of those winners. Descaro is a stayer who seems to enjoy decent ground with each of his wins coming on a sound surface. He won off a mark of 69 back in April at Pontefract and now races off just 1lb higher having struggled on soft ground the last twice. Before that he ran okay at a probably unsuitable track at Chester and then over a trip slightly too short at Catterick. 2 miles on good ground today is bang up his street and he ran well over c&d back in June in a decent race. He can bounce back today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread +19.4pts. So the unlucky stage coming to an end. Back to lots of losers I presume.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Boy I could do with a good day. I thought I'd go from hitting the crossbar to a bit of form, but it seems like it's going downhill again! Hopefully that can be curbed today... 2.40 Bath - 4pts win Sleep Dance @ 4/1 (Hills) - BOG Eve Johnson Houghton is in good form at the minute, and her newcomer here won't have to be anything special to score at the first attempt. The trainer has a 24% strike rate at Bath with her 2yos, and the field looks full of exposed types with very moderate ratings, or horses who have shown little in a fewer number of starts, or those from yards without strong records with 2yos. Suzy Alexander sets the standard but she's rated a mere 58 and I think Sleep Dance can prove better than that. My selection is bred to be useful at 2, and also around sprint trips. She's by a sprinter and out of a sprinter, so this trip looks the place to start, and her sales price rose to £20k as a yearling. She is a half-sister to five horses who all won at 2 over sprint trips, and her dam was best at 2 years also. She looks sure to know her job first time out, and I think she can enhance her families record as a juvenile.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.10 Bath - 3pts win Seeking Magic @ 7/2 (Hills) - BOG Seeking Magic is an unexposed horse in this field, having had only four runs in his career so far, and looks to have a superb chance now back in ideal conditions. He overcame keenness to run out a ready winner on debut at Kempton over 7f winning by 2 1/2l - beating some decent types in the process. Take Your Partner was 2nd - who has won 4 on the trot since. Konstantin was 3rd - who has run well since including three wins. Stirling Bridge was 4th and he's won since also. The rest were well beaten. Seeking Magic was then off the track from December to April and shaped as if needing the run when sent off at 6/5 back over his successful c&d. He seemed to be caught out by the horses who beat him that day when he was 3rd, and it probably proved best to ignore that run. He bounced back with the hood applied for the first time at Newbury over 6f. He was unlucky as he lacked a clear run before flying home at the finish. He ended up a 1/2l 3rd behind Oneladyowner (won well again since) and the 87 rated Farlow. He only runs off 3lbs higher today after a below-par run at Sandown over 5f on soft ground which clearly didn't suit. He got outpaced under the conditions and all of the horses were spread out. He steps up slightly in trip today on better ground which looks much more suitable, and can get his first win since his debut.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.20 Newcastle - 3pts win Circus Clown @ 11/2 (Bet365) - BOG This 2 mile race looks sure to be a test on ground softer than good around Newcastle. This should play into the hands of my selection - the Jim Goldie trained Circus Clown. This horse improved over hurdles before returning to the flat this year, progressing from a 92 rated horse to a 113 rated horse over timber. He was well fancied on his return to the level at Ayr but it looked like he wasn't going to succeed when niggled and pushed along from quite a way out. However, he showed his stamina late on to power to the front close home. He raced over 14f last time out when again he didn't travel with immense zest. However, again he shaped as if needing every inch of the trip when 2nd behind Bocciani. A progressive horse who has won 5 of his last 7 over both codes. There was 11l back to the third on that occasion and it was an amateur riders race. Back up in trip today will suit and he goes in soft conditions. Daniel Tudhope takes the ride which is an obvious plus and he will be staying on when others tire. I think he'll take some beating today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Give it a rest. 3rd and a narrow 2nd.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread All win bets. All placed.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread +9.4pts. Chuffed.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.30 Leicester - 5pts win Latte @ 7/4 (Ladbrokes) - BOG A grim seller for the second race of the day at Leicester, but I can't resist a max bet on the Linda Stubbs trained Latte here. The North Yorkshire based trainer's string have been in decent form of late, and this can continue with another success for this 70 rated 2yo. A rating of 70 is useful in this sort of grade having demolished his rivals when dropped to selling company for the first time, last time out. He showed some promise quite consistently in maidens, but was never quite good enough to win one of her own, and it was always likely that lowly handicaps, claimers and sellers would be his level. He was 7th of 12 on his claiming debut at Thirsk, but the race wasn't terrible, and he was only beaten around 3l by Yammos who was 3rd. That horse won since ahead of some of today's rivals including Make Up. The track wasn't certain to be in his favour at Thirsk, as he's mainly raced on galloping tracks, and certainly his best form has come on those sort of racecourses. As well as this, it was only the first time that cheekpieces had been applied to the horse last time out at Yarmouth in selling company. He made the running that day and clearly enjoyed himself, running out an impressive 6l victor to lose his maiden tag. The form has worked out also, with the 2nd horse - Red Hearts - winning her next race. Naturally the cheekpieces are retained today, and it will take a good effort from one of his rivals to stop him going in again. Kieron Fallon takes the ride, as he did at Yarmouth, and this can only be another positive. He looks perfectly fine at the weights with on the balance of it, only two serious rivals. One of those relies on the first time visor in Bajan Hero, otherwise is likely to struggle in my opinion, and Make Up is the other. However, I think with little between my selection and Richard Hannon's bottom-weight based on form with Yammos, Linda Stubbs can saddle the winner back at a suitable track and with the cheekpieces on.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.00 Leicester - 2.5pts e/w Cootehill Lass @ 13/2 (Hills) - BOG I think this price is an each-way steal for David Evans' animal in this race, even though each of her three career successes have come in selling company. Every single one of those successes have come at this track, where she boasts an impressive 100% strike rate with an aggregate victory margin of 7 1/4l. She hasn't really had many chances in handicap company to prove herself at this level, and I'm confident with conditions in her favour, she will be able to land one - and I think it'll come today. Plenty of her poor runs have come with excuses attached, so I think there's plenty in her favour this afternoon. She started off her career with two pretty woeful efforts, before nearly popping up at a big price of 66/1 on her third career start. She was 2nd to the useful Watneya at Redcar with 3l back to the third. She failed to build on this when bogged down in heavy ground on her next outing, before staying on a bit having been outpaced at Wolverhampton. Many inexperienced horses struggle to go the pace at the all-weather tracks so it wasn't too much of a concern at the stage of her career. She was well backed however when she made her first appearance at Leicester, in a seller over 6f back in March - after a break since November. The money was correct as she ran home a comfortable winner by 2l despite a slow start. She was sent back to Wolverhampton and on this occasion ran a much better race to only go down a head. It was a messy 4 runner affair and the winner had the run of it. That horse, Pick A Little, has gone on to have a good season. Cootehill Lass was returned to the venue of her only success next time and again she delivered the goods. She ran much the same race as before to win again by the same margin. She beat Chester specialist, and a horse a little bit better than a seller in Kingswinford that day - so they're not absolutely terrible sellers she's been competing in. It was no real surprise to see her finish last of all at Pontefract in handicap company on her next start. All of her best form has come on a galloping track, and the sharp nature of the West Yorkshire venue was never likely to suit. Back to Leicester she went, and again she romped to victory. 3 1/4l the winning margin this time from the frustrating Bilko Pak. The 3rd and 4th aren't useless animals either so it was another impressive win. She actually showed more last time than perhaps expected, and certainly hinted that handicaps were in her, when she raced at Epsom. The track was never likely to suit, and it didn't really, but she still plugged on to be beaten 4l by Konstantin. That race was better than today's, and even though she was beaten a short head by the reopposing Songsmith, I expect her to reverse that form back at Leicester. Conditions are right in her favour again today, and her first start at Leicester out of selling company shouldn't hold too many fears and I hope she can make it 4-4 at the track. The cheekpieces are back on also, which is no negative.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.30 Leicester - 3pts win Chatterer @ 5/1 (Bet365) - BOG Marcus Tregoning's horses have come into their own in the latter part of the season, recording a 21% strike rate last month and has had 2 winners and 3 places from his last 9 runners. Chatterer makes his fifth track appearance this afternoon, and it's very difficult to see a poor run from him. He put a poor debut run behind him when scoring at the second attempt - with the tongue-tie fitted - winning by 1/2l at Lingfield over 10f. He beat Dare To Bear into 2nd with 3l back to the third. That horse has run two good races in handicap company the last twice. Chatterer failed to land a blow on his next start, but had the excuse of a very slow start under the riding of Katia Scallan, and therefore ran a good race under the circumstances. He was detached but managed to latch onto the field and finish 3rd of 6. He should have won that day really but used to much gas up making amends for his sloppy beginning. Expectedly, he bounced back to form last time out when a fast-finishing 3rd at Newbury - just unable to reel in the two leaders. The form looks decent, however, with the winner winning again since in Silken Thoughts, and the runner-up winning its first hurdle start comfortably on its only outing since. The key today would be the step up in trip for this individual. His pedigree tells me that it will prove no problem whatsoever, and has shaped as if needing further - especially on his most recent start. He's by a high-class miler in Alhaarth and his dam, whilst unraced, is an unraced half-sister to a 12f Group 2 winner, a 12f Group 3 winner and was out of a stayer. He looks sure to improve for the trip, and looks ready to pick a race up off a mark of 68.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.10 Lingfield - 2pts win Rock Canyon @ 5/1 (PaddyPower) - BOG The Lingfield turf track tends to hold quite a bias to horses drawn high who can race along the 'golden highway' of the stands rail, and fortunately my selection here has a good draw in stall 12 of 13. Rock Canyon showed steady promise in his maidens, starting his career off with a 3rd to Samminder at Yarmouth. The Peter Chapple-Hyam trained horse has not run again since such a promising debut, but is entered in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes. Recent Warwick winner Pickled Pelican was 2nd - and had run two other good races in maidens prior to that. Rock Canyon ran with promise to keep on into a clear 3rd with 6l back to the 4th placed rival. He showed further promise upped to 7f on his second start when only beaten 2 1/4l in a decent maiden at Sandown. The winner was the Mark Johnston trained John Lightbody - who has only run once since and flopped in a Group 2. Can't really judge based on that. Recent maiden winner Iceni Girl was 2nd, and Chesham 9th Polydamos was 3rd. On this form, my selection should have been able to pick up a maiden, but struggled when sent off 2/1 favourite at Wolverhampton next time. It's difficult to know what went wrong that day, but he showed more on his handicap debut to suggest he's still capable of winning races. He was held up at Epsom - a track where it is often difficult to come from off the pace - and kept on but just not at the pace to get to the leaders. The race was a decent one, however, with plenty of sound horses in the field such as Marygold and Maastricht. The latter won since and was headed right on the line yesterday at Bath and was only a neck ahead of Rock Canyon at Epsom. Rock Canyon has been dropped 3lbs for that run, which looks fair to me, and I think he's certainly up to winning races off 71 (with a further 3lbs taken off by Sean Levey). I think that he should try and make the most of his good draw to bag the stands rail, and I think he will run a huge race if managing to do so. A handier sit should see him in better light, as he certainly has the ability to win this. He's bred to get a little bit further so he shouldn't be stopping if he races close to the pace and I have a feeling it will suit him more than coming from off the pace. That is just suspicion, though, and he'd still have a chance if he does settle in behind - even if it is more difficult from there at Lingfield on the turf. A big run is expected regardless.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 5.10 Lingfield - 5pts win Agilete @ 9/4 (Bet365) - BOG To be honest I think 9/4 is a very nice price for this horse, in a seller which looks to lack depth. Only three horses look to have hopes at the weights and it goes to show that they're out of form when the 2nd favourite is Dream Of Fortune - who hasn't won in his last 26 starts, and would be receiving 18lbs from my selection were this a handicap! Loch Fleet and Safari Team have chances at the weights, but both have been out of sorts of late, and I think this represents a superb change for Agilete to get back into the winner's enclosure. The Lydia Pearce trained 9yo won a handicap off a mark of 79 in late 2009 and is well handicapped after a 2 year absence from the track. Agilete is a 4 time winner around Wolverhampton and has run many other good races there. His form is not so good at Lingfield, but he clearly enjoys the polytrack, and I think he'll get away with it today. He returned from his long break with a cracking run over 9f at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago when finishing 2nd to Jordaura - a decent horse in this grade. The reasoning behind Dream Of Fortune's shortish price comes considering he was 1l behind my selection on this occasion, but I simply cannot see him reversing the form off the same terms and now with Agilete having the benefit of a run. Naturally Agilete wasn't 100% strong in the finish that day, but should be much sharper now, and I think it's going to be very tough for anything to beat him. The stable are in good form and they can have another winner here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Big day today. Confident which means big stakes which means potential win = :nana Or potential lose = :wall :cry Fingers crossed! :hope

[Aidymac]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

Big day today. Confident which means big stakes which means potential win = :nana Or potential lose = :wall :cry Fingers crossed! :hope

I worry you are losing the run of yourself... I think the worst thing you can do when on a bad losing run is dramatically increase your stakes, your now putting all your eggs into one basket, seems like today is boom or bust for you! I have been there, experienced it, not nice! Good luck today though, hope it works out for you, except for the 3:30 :p

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread

I worry you are losing the run of yourself... I think the worst thing you can do when on a bad losing run is dramatically increase your stakes, your now putting all your eggs into one basket, seems like today is boom or bust for you! I have been there, experienced it, not nice! Good luck today though, hope it works out for you, except for the 3:30 :p

To be honest I'm not actually doing that at all. If I was +100pts the stakes would be the same today. I'm just genuinely confident about my chances. The problem is, whenever I am really confident, they bomb :unsure

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Sick f**king joke. Seriously. Chinned by a horse who has beaten a total of 10 horses home in its last 7 races.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Another win bet placed :clap:clap:clap

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Insult to injury as the supposed banker drifts from 9/4 out to 5/1 in a place and therefore had little chance of winning. Good night.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread -4.85pts. It was fun while it lasted. About 8 placed horses with my BBOTD since my last BBOTD winner. Roll on tomorrow :eyes

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread At least there's some decent racing tomorrow! Chin back up and selections on the way in a bit.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 3.10 Doncaster - 3pts win Medicean Man @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Really competitive listed sprint with not much to split several on official ratings, but Jeremy Gask's horse has been really progressive since campaigned over 5f with the cheekpieces on. He's been in the frame on 13 occasions from 25 runs, winning 7 so he has quite a formidable strike rate - something you want in a horse to show he does not shirk his responsibility. Some people would say that this horse has simply come into form over the 5f trip at Ascot, but I don't think this is particularly true. At the end of the day, Medicean Man has been a good horse for a while, but the switch back to 5f has unlocked some more improvement. He was rated in the 90s for 10 runs before he won at Ascot over 5f this June, running well at a number of tracks. He was a close 2nd off a mark of 99 at Wolverhampton in March after a break so it shows that he's not a one trick pony. His wins have come at varying tracks - Doncaster, Haydock, Ripon, Wolverhampton and Ascot. I think it's just the fact he hasn't run over 5f anywhere else since last Spring when winning once at Wolverhampton and finishing midfield at Beverley. Now I hope he can put the argument to bed by winning this race today. He has propelled to the highest rated horse in the field since good performances at Ascot. But he showed he was in good form when 2nd to Norville (pair clear) over 6f at Windsor off 94 prior to that - under the inexperienced Clare Lindop. The cheekpieces were applied for the first time for a while, having wore them twice previously (good runs both times). Connections found the key to the horse by dropping him back to the minimum trip with the cheekpieces retained. He won impressively (even by 1/2l) twice at Ascot, picking up well under rides that weren't hugely strong. He again was piloted by not the most experienced jockeys in Raul Da Silva and Harry Bentley. Rather ironically, when he got the firmer handling of Christophe Lemaire last time out, the horse ended up behind a wall of horses. The winner had gone before Lemaire found a gap, and the horse absolutely thundered home to go down only a neck. To get that close was a phenomenal effort, and he was clearly the best horse in the race. He should have won. He holds Duchess Dora on this form, and if reading form literally, should beat Captain Dunne and Dinkum Diamond in my eyes based on collateral form. I question if Humidor is good enough, and Group Therapy struggles to win having failed to score in his last 10 races. It will be difficult for any others to get involved, so I think Medicean Man has a monumental chance of increasing his reputation today. Richard Hughes takes the ride for the first time, who should be a perfect partner for this one's late running style, and hopefully he'll time it right to win the race!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.50 Doncaster - 2pts win Firebeam @ 13/2 (Ladbrokes) - BOG Firebeam has been a progressive individual and looks set to run another cracker today with conditions to suit. Putting aside his rather flat Southwell run, he's improved since his promising debut over today's course and distance behind the useful King Of Jazz. He bolted up at Lingfield by 6l from a subsequent winner and then murdered another field from another subsequent winner at York. Was well fancied back to 6f at Ascot last time out and disappointed slightly. However, 6f might not have been ideal given his success over 7f, and also, the race was a good one. The winner, Morache Music, ran a good race in France since behind Marchand D'or (beaten 2 1/2l) and the 2nd, Desert Law, proved much too strong at Bath to register an impressive victory. Firebeam had to settle for third, but was not disgraced, and now upped back to 7f on a track which suits, he can get back to winning ways. The race is a good one, but Firebeam has the best form in the book in my opinion and therefore looks a good price @ 13/2. The yard are going very sweetly of late and I think this one will add to their run.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Firebeam non runner. 4.20 Doncaster - 1.5pts e/w Rasmy @ 9/1 (PaddyPower) - BOG This horse has had an interrupted career, but when he's actually had the chance to run with ideal conditions, he's run with promise. He's only run 6 times in three years but has shown plenty of ability. Smashed a useful type in Breakheart by 5l in a Bath maiden on 2nd start, and then a solid run beaten less than 3l by Myplacelater after a break. Only went down by 1/2l at Chester behind Azrael and Dancing David when he actually got chance to run with race fitness. Another break followed before needing a run at Sandown this year behind Class And Class. More promise last time at Goodwood behind Drunken Sailor and now should be fully fit. Back down to this trip will suit, and he's still got improvement in him. Tregoning going much better than he was when this horse was running a couple of months ago.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 1.25 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Royal Blush @ 20/1 (PaddyPower) - BOG I posted this before her run at Windsor:

5.50 Windsor - 2pts e/w Royal Blush @ 13/2 (Hills) - BOG Paul Cole's filly looks to have a big chance to me dropped in grade and in the weights for her third start in nursery company. She showed obvious promise on her debut at Newmarket when chasing home Princess Banu, a horse tried in higher company since. Royal Blush, as expected, got off the mark at the second attempt when running out a 3/4l winner in 4 a runner race over 6f at Newmarket. She beat Lemon Rock and the pair were 2l clear of the 3rd. She stepped into a competitive handicap at Goodwood won by Goldoni over 7f next time out but things went wrong that day when the saddle slipped and she raced wide. She tanked up to the leaders but naturally the gas ran out and she faded. It's very much best ignored. Last time out she was again in decent company back at Newmarket in a race won by Pimpernel with Salford Art in 2nd. This was a hot nursery and Royal Blush travelled into the race quite sweetly but faded suggesting this drop back to 6f would suit. The ground was possibly just on the easy side of the described good that day and this filly's action is very much one for quicker ground. It should be a little bit quicker today, and the race doesn't look as hot. She's also 3lbs lower in the handicap and she should run a very big race.

Now, she's still got a decent task on to win this, but she'd be shorter had he won at Windsor. And I think she should have - or at least been much closer. She travelled really well under the handling of Silvestre De Sousa but failed to get a clear run as the race hotted up, and she found herself out the rear having initially raced just behind the leaders. She lost all chance but once she got out in the closing stages, she stayed on really well to be 6th of 11, beaten less than 4l under tough circumstances. She's down a lb for that, and she might run better than her price. She'd have to improve a bit but even though she was well-held at Newmarket, it wasn't a terrible run in a better race than this, in my opinion, and this trip of around 6 1/2 furlongs should suit. She's 4lbs lower than at Newmarket and I hope she'll outrun her price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 1.55 Doncaster - 1.5pts e/w Jacqueline Quest @ 11/1 (Hills) - BOG I posted this before her Goodwood run:

3.20 Goodwood - 1.5pts e/w Jacqueline Quest @ 16/1 (Bet365) - BOG I posted this before her Haydock run: Now even though she finished a 3 3/4l 4th on this occasion, she definitely showed signs of her old ability. I thought she was going to deliver a winning challenge at one point as she cruised into the race on the stands rail. She found very little when she did so, however, and was left behind. This seems to be a bit of a trait of hers, but she also shaped as if a drop to 7f might work the oracle. Her only career win to date was over 7f - if you ignore the 1000 Guineas - and her runs over a mile if you ignore the Newmarket run suggest she's not got the finishing kick over that distance. I think she's best over a truly run 7f, something she's bound to get here. With the likes of Hooray and Libranno in the field, she looks sure to get a nice toe into the race, and she should be finishing off better than she did last time out. Tougher race, this, but I think she's a tad overpriced despite question marks over her head at the minute. It wasn't long ago that she was a 111 horse - which would put her joint 2nd best in the race on official figures, so a reproduction of that form would see her high on the list for this race. The ground conditions seem ideal and a big run if highly possible from this tricky customer.

Now I probably shouldn't stick with this quirky customer, but she's overpriced here. It was a tough decision for me to switch allegiance from Chachamaidee but Jacqueline Quest looks back to form and I hope she'll go very well again here. The top rated horse is 113 but Jacqueline Quest ran a big race facing the boys, going down by a short head to Libranno - who ran off 112. My selection only got 2lbs from the Hannon trained individual and she'd be competitive on ratings if back to her best - which she seems to be close to. Richard Hughes is booked for the ride which is very interesting. If anyone can get this one home it probably is Hughes. She shouldn't be an 11/1 shot here and I expect another good run back among her own sex.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 2.25 Doncaster - 2pts e/w Cockney Dancer @ 9/1 (Hills) - BOG Posted this prior to her debut:

5.20 Windsor - 2pts win Cockney Dancer @ 4/1 (VC) - BOG Barry Hills may have handed over the reins, but he had around a 20% strike rate with 2yos at Windsor, and this newcomer to the track is bred to be quite a smart sprinting 2yo. She's by the very smart 2yo and 2000 Guineas winner Cockney Rebel and is a half-sister to several decent 2yo horses including Gallagher and her dam bolted up on her debut. She's prominent in the betting and holds a promising entry which suggests to me she's going to be quite decent in her early career. She's bred to know her job right from the start and should be speedy. Should give the favourite plenty to think about.

I was really taken by her debut as she switched right around the outside before putting the race to bed quite quickly. She was well on top at the finish, winning by 3/4l from the Sir Michael Stoute trained Ladyship. There were 5 lengths back to the 3rd and the runner-up had a good debut run under her belt behind the decent Desert Gazelle. Cockney Dancer was worth more than her winning margin given the way she had to be pulled right out and beat a decent horse who had the experience edge on her. I expect my selection to improve for that run and put in a very good effort here. It's a step up, but she's bred to be very good at 2 and I expect her to be. This looks a tricky race but she's well worth her place, and should go well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.10 Doncaster - 2pts e/w Novellen Lad @ 20/1 (Hills) - BOG I posted this before his recent Windsor run:

6.40 Windsor - 1.5pts e/w Novellen Lad @ 7/1 (Hills) Posted this prior to his Goodwood run: There are still a couple of concerns tonight. Musson's horses still aren't really firing, and the ground might not quite be quick enough, however, I think he still has a big chance eased slightly in grade. He had no chance at Goodwood in the end, being last of a small group on the near side. The far side dominated, other than a couple who did better on the stands side, but they were more prominent throughout, and you can safely rule out Novellen Lad's effort. This will suit better, I just hope the ground isn't too bad (officially good). He's going to pop up again this year I'm sure of it and I think it could be today.

He ran well to be 3rd that day, and did that despite the ground which was changed to good to soft during racing. This horse wants a sound surface so it was a good effort in the end. He was quite easy in the betting also so it was quite encouraging. His latest effort at Sandown can safely be ignored. He ran over 5f on soft ground and was last. That bumps his price up today and if the ground rides on the quicker side, he's got a big chance in my opinion. You can excuse his bad runs and he hasn't really had a recent effort where you can't find any reasons why he hasn't won or run well. A draw in 7 doesn't look bad and Willie Musson is in a bit better form than when this horse has been running this season. He had a poor July and August but his horses have shaped a bit better in the last fortnight or so, and hopefully he's coming into a bit of form. The ground is key and I just hope it isn't slow. If it isn't, this horse has a good chance.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread 4.40 Doncaster - 3pts win Chain Lightning @ 9/2 (Boyles) I posted this prior to his Sandown run:

2.15 Sandown - 3pts win Chain Lightning @ 11/2 (Hills) - BOG I posted this prior to his Goodwood run: He ran a cracker in this to go down by 3/4l to Labarinto - a horse with every right to wiin - and the race had a very solid feel to it. My selection looked like he might win the race before the winner pulled out a bit more, and I think a repeat of that off 2lbs higher will make him hard to beat. He travels well and he's won over this c&d before, and should have won over it two starts ago really. Soft ground holds no fears as he's won on it before, and this shouldn't be as soft as it was that day at Salisbury. Naturally this race is competitive, but Chain Lightning has very solid form in the book, and I'd be surprised if he isn't bang there. I think he'll win.

Unlike Novellen Lad, Chain Lightning will only run if the ground isn't too quick, even though he's run good races on decent ground. His run last time was flat, but raced in the centre of the track and seemed to be unbalanced which was a bit surprising. However, Richard Hughes is back on board today (was Mullen's first ride on the horse) and this flat track will suit fine. I think his Goodwood run was better than Club Oceanic's recent form for all that one's been doing well. I just feel Chain Lightning beat better horses than the Noseda trained individual. If my selection bounces back, which Richard Hannon believes he will, he'll take some stopping.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Rupert's Flat Racing Thread Do I need to even say anything?