Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Yeah to be honest I'm disappointed with a few of the selections. I maybe got a bit carried away when I got 9 points in front and then I also possibly tried to pick too many to get back to where I was and it just became a vicious circle. Very happ with the picks today though, they are the sorts I always intended on when I started the thread. This forum has been one big learning experience since I started though and I am continue to learn. I am definitely way more disciplined than I ever used to be, just still a little short of where I need to be though. I'm ver confident though that I will be in good long term profit in the coming weeks though if I continue to pick as well as I did today. Could not believe Vita Nova though, I had the other 3 up in a yankee and it cost me a really juicy return on that! Cheers for the feedback though Bh, and thanks for your ongoing support :ok

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:00 Market Rasen - Oasis Knight - Back Looks a banker here. Is miles well in on official figures and in the best recent form as well. Been well backed all day and should win thus easily 5 pts win @ 4/9 Boylesports BOG

[Irishbugger]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread You stakes seem to have increased since the start, where it was 1point 1.5 points now it seems 2, 3 and 5 points are more regular. Was this a conscious move or a lack of control?

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Only because alot of the the more recent ones have been longer odds on whereas at the start they were more like 4/5 or 8/11.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:30 Brighton - Starbound - Back This looks a gilt-edged opportunity for him to break his maiden here. He has improved in all if his 3 career starts thus far, culminating in a 2nd lto where he was pretty unfortunate to get nailed late on. Looked a sure fire future winner that day and he's been well placed here to gain compensation. Haggis is on fire and he should get himself another winner here 2pts win @ 4/9 William Hill BOG

[torn up slip]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Ok maybe me saying you've been lucky was the wrong choice of phrase. However, and the facts from this thread back me up, backing short priced favourites is in the long term not proven to show any sort of regular, sustained profit. The fact remains that odds on backing is horrific value for money, it should be blindingly obvious that any horse running in any race is more likely to get beat than it is to win. So backing odds on therefore is pretty much cast iron to show a negative over a period of time. Im not intending to offend anyone by the way, I know I can come across slightly off key at times (propa yorkshire man, call a spade a spade n all that) but im not going to pussy foot about either. I reckon you could write a mathematical phesis on why betting odds on is guranteed to turn a loss over a period of time that is likely to produce the right amount of data to support what im saying.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Torn Up Slip, thankyou for actually posting a contructive comment. You were well out of line last time but this time at least you've actually posted something that has some substance to it. I still disagree with your opinion as I don't it is true that every horse is more likely to get beaten than not. Some odds on favourites have a better then 50% chance of winning in my opinion and therefore deserve to be odds on. Clearly we'll have to agree to disagree on the matter, but thankyou for actually posting a comment based on a sensible approach. I just wish you'd done it first time round.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread A good couple of days with 2 winners from 2, making the current streak 3 winners on the bounce. Seem to be consistently beating SP aswell at the moment with the prices that I'm advising, that's always a positive sign Yesterday: Bets placed: 1 Winners: 1 Strike rate: 100.0% Total points staked: 5pts Total points returned: 7.22pts Net profit: +2.22pts % Yield: 44.4%

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Today: Bets placed: 1 Winners: 1 Strike rate: 100.0% Total points staked: 2pts Total points returned: 2.89pts Net profit: +0.89pts % Yield: 44.4%

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Overall so far: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 50 Total number of winners: 28 Strike Rate: 56.00% Total number of points staked: 118.00 Total points returned: 119.90 Net position: +1.90pts % yield: 1.61% Current bank: 101.90 points

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread r

However, and the facts from this thread back me up, backing short priced favourites is in the long term not proven to show any sort of regular, sustained profit. .

This statement has one horrific but amazingly important flaw...The last time i checked 34 days is not "long term"....:nana for example if you started to follow a tipster in february and he had a loss of 4pts,by your reckoning that would prove he is a bad tipster???So if he had profit of 50pts in march it wouldnt matter as your definition of "long term" had passed..Maybe you should give wizzkid maybe 6months or a year to show his long term plan as the last time i checked long term meant long term:ok

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 5:00 Pontefract - Thubiaan - Back Absolutely standout on the form book, and his two 2nds in his last 2 starts are comfortably clear of anything achieved on a racecourse by any of today's rivals. The fact he is yet to win is more down to just finding 1 too good in both of those races rather than there being attitude questions in my opinion and I think he'll win nicely here 2.5pts win 4/11 Bet365 BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread I wish they all won like that!! Thubiaan travelled beautifully and was still swinging off the bridle at the front turning the bend after climbing the gruelling Pontefract uphill slope. He had the rest in touble a long way out and won by 4 lengths, could easily have been more but the jockey eased him down for a deserved canter in the closing stages. Yesterday: Bets placed: 1 Winners: 1 Strike rate: 100.0% Total points staked: 2.5pts Total points returned: 3.41pts Net profit: +0.91pts % Yield: 36.36%

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Overall so far: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 51 Total number of winners: 29 Strike Rate: 56.86% Total number of points staked: 120.50 Total points returned: 123.31 Net position: +2.81pts % yield: 2.33% Current bank: 102.81 points

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 2:20 Catterick - The Dancing Lord - Back He is absolutely standout here on racecourse form of anything in this race. Slightly interesting race as you get the feeling that some of these might have been run down the field in some of their races and may be long term handicap projects, but there looks little in terms of opposition here. He won nicely 2 starts ago and then followed that up with a very solid run when 3rd lto. He has a huge chance here from a good draw and should take all the beating 1.5 pts win @ 8/11 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 2:40 Bath - Hidden Passion - Back Went wrong on debut after strong market support. He lost his action that day and was pulled up quickly. Seeimg no ill-effects from that as he returned to the tracked and came 2nd in a decent looking maiden at Haydock. He was considered good enough to contest a Listed event at Newmarket lto and although he could only finish 8th, there was no disgrace in that. Eased right down in grade to a Class 5 today, clearly the one to beat. Thirsty Bear showed promise on debut when 4th at Newmarket and could well be a danger, but Hidden Passion may prove to be just a bit too classy for him here 2.5 pts win @ 8/15 Bet365 BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:30 Lingfield - Undulant Way - Back On official figures she's 6lbs badly in here against Amistress due to the fact that she is carrying a 6lb penalty for a recent win at Windsor. However, such was the style of that victory (won by 3.5 lengths in a very open and competitive looking handicap) that she left the impression that she's a fair way ahead of the assessor of her current mark and connections are clearly keen to take advantage of her lenient current mark. The other 2 look like they're having their own private dual to avoid the wooden spoon here and at 4/6 I think she represents a very fair price here 1.5 pts win @ 4/6 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 4:00 Lingfield - Piranha - Back The 2nd Nursery of the year here and Piranha leaps off the page. She absolutely bolted up lto when making light work of disposing of favourite Banksy at Kempton. She won by 3.5 lengths going away that day and will have gone into many a notebook as she left a really favourabl impression and looked thoroughly straight-forward. Dark Ages is the other lto winner in the field but she had a real battle on when winning by only a short head and although she showed a good attitude, she looks to be open to less improvement that Piranha 1.5 pts win @ 5/6 Victor Chandler BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread A very, very minute loss on the day, with a -0.02 pt net loss so far with 7 points staked. The Dancing Lord was incredibly disappointing, stumbling twice during the race and never, ever looking like threatening the winner. Undulant Way ran a solid enough race but lacked a turn of foot in the crucial stages and was well beaten in the end in 2nd. Hidden Passion got smashed into in the market and won impressively enough in the end and Piranha won by a small margin but always looked like she was doing enough to be fair. There are a couple that appeal tonight so I will post them shortly

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread An incredibly busy today with plenty of appealing shorties and there are 3 more tonight: 6:10 Worcester - Geneva Geyser - Back Run once and won once and left the impression he could be a pretty smart type when scoring on debut. He jumped fluently for a newbie lto and you would think that he would only improve for the experience. Based on that, he'll take some beating here. Carabinier the obvious danger but he's open to less improvement than the favourite and may well have to settle for 2nd here 1.5 pts win @ 4/5 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 8:10 Worcester - Spice Bar - Back The fact that he is 11/10 in an otherwise competitive handicap says everything about his chances here. The field is 10/1 bar the favourite and Spice Bar has an almighty chance here of making it 4 wins from 5 here. He carries a penalty for his latest win but he won so impressively there that it looks incredibly unlikely the penalty will stop him and he should follow up here. If he's in the same modd as he was lto, he'll take an absolute world of beating here under McCoy 2.5 pts win @ 11/10 Bet365

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 8:40 Worcester - Black Jack Blues - Back Ok, so he's probably a tad short at 1/3 but I do think he is absolutely worthy of being a short price. The rest of the field look very limited in potential and the only one that is an exception to that is Rio Gael. He won his maiden chase 2 starts ago but was made to work pretty hard for the victory in a Class 4. He was then upped to Class 3 but was resoundingly beaten. Worringly for him, he made multiple mistakes in his jumping when under pressure. I'm pretty sure he may suffer in the same way today as Black Jack Blues looks a more fluent jumper and he may be able to apply sufficient pressure to Rio Gael to force the same today. Black Jack Blues was a good hurdler and turned his attention to chasing lto. He won well and was eased late on. I think he'll build on that and I'm very confident he'll follow up here 4.5 pts win @ 1/3 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread An absolutely vintage night for the thread, with a treble out of the three selections. Spice Bar was absolutely smashed off the boards and the 11/10 price advised looked absolutely wonderful value in relation to the 4/7 SP. Just goes to prove that there can be value in backing short priced favourites, it's all about picking the right ones. A good run at the moment but taking nothing for granted as, having already been evidenced in this thread a couple of times already, your whole profit can be wiped out very quickly if you get your stakes wrong. Happy with today though, alot of bets with alot of points staked but they were all genuine strong fancies and I reaped the rewards Today: Bets placed: 7 Winners: 5 Strike rate: 71.43% Total points staked: 15.5 pts Total points returned: 20.93 pts Net profit: +5.43 pts % Yield: 35.03%

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Overall so far: Starting Bank: 100 points Total number of bets placed: 58 Total number of winners: 34 Strike Rate: 58.62% Total number of points staked: 136.00 Total points returned: 144.24 Net position: +8.24 pts % yield: 6.06% Current bank: 108.24 points

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 3:35 Newmarket - Burwaaz - Back Looks to have an almighty chance here. He started his career nicely with a debut 2nd and he then built on that when winning lto. However, it was his 4th in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot lot that was his standout piece of form thus far. He was drawn on the wrong side but won his mini race on the stand side which was creditable in itself. Eased in grade from Group 2 to class 3 here, definitely the one to beat. Harbour watch won on debut and has to be respected but he'll have to improve significantly to beat Burwaaz here 2pts win @ 10/11 Paddy Power BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Will updat the totals tonight, just posting on the phone now with today's bets. 2:15 Ascot - Poole Harbour - Back Looked absolutely nailed on to win a race soon when 2nd on debut lto. He showed a good attitude and plenty of ability in a good looking maiden and didn't go down by much. Up against a number of debutants here and although they could be anything, Poole Harbours form looks good though and his experience should prove crucial 4 pts win @ 4/11 William Hill BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread 4:10 Newmarket - Thimaar - Back Another maiden up against a number of unraced types but thimaar has run twice thus far. He has achieved a good standard with good 2nd and 3rds so far. Hasn't done anything wrong either time and looks to have been found his best opportunity yet to break the maiden tag. Has some flashy future entries so you would expect connections would want him to win here if he was to fulfil those 2pts win @ 5/6 Bet365 BOG

[erhaab1965]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Whilst i'm following your thread with great interest , i can't but think you are just selecting all horses priced at odd on , the shorter the price the bigger the stake. I too like to bet horses with a bigger chance of winning , but somedays there are short priced horses which are not worthy of a bet. This maybe because its trained by a high profile trainer or it has one piece of good form which hasn't been scruntenised yet , or whatever...Poole Harbour today and yesterdays Burwaaz are what i mean.Even though the market suggested they would win , i didn't think they were worthy of a bet. I think your staking plan staking plan needs looking at also. The shorter the price doesn't justify the bigger the bet approach. As you know if you have 5pts@ 1/3 which loses you need to bet 15pts worth of bets @ 1/3 to make that stake back.This to me is betting suicide.What size bet would you have if a horse was 1/5 or less? As you know these horses occasionally get turned over too , but if they win you don't gain much. I admit to being a losing punter over the years but one thing i have learnt is to lose my money at a slower rate. If you're having a 5pt on a 1/3 shot then with better priced favs you should be having similar bets if you fancy them instead of having 1pt @10/11.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread

Whilst i'm following your thread with great interest ' date=' [b']i can't but think you are just selecting all horses priced at odd on , the shorter the price the bigger the stake. I too like to bet horses with a bigger chance of winning , but somedays there are short priced horses which are not worthy of a bet. This maybe because its trained by a high profile trainer or it has one piece of good form which hasn't been scruntenised yet , or whatever...Poole Harbour today and yesterdays Burwaaz are what i mean.Even though the market suggested they would win , i didn't think they were worthy of a bet. I think your staking plan staking plan needs looking at also. The shorter the price doesn't justify the bigger the bet approach. As you know if you have 5pts@ 1/3 which loses you need to bet 15pts worth of bets @ 1/3 to make that stake back.This to me is betting suicide.What size bet would you have if a horse was 1/5 or less? As you know these horses occasionally get turned over too , but if they win you don't gain much. I admit to being a losing punter over the years but one thing i have learnt is to lose my money at a slower rate. If you're having a 5pt on a 1/3 shot then with better priced favs you should be having similar bets if you fancy them instead of having 1pt @10/11.

I knew that when I started this thread I was putting myself out there to be shot at, but some of your points are just crazy. I'm going to respond to each of the bolds in order. Firstly what evidence do you have to base such a sweeping statement on. I knew you were talking shit from this point onwards, so I went through the cards for the last 2 days. Over Thursday and Friday there have been 13 (THIRTEEN) odds on SP favourites and that doesn't include any that were odds on in the morning but drifted to odds against by the off. I have put 3 (THREE) on my thread. That's less than 25%. So to say I just back all odds on shots is just stupid really. Secondly, if you thought Poole Harbour and Burwaaz were such bad bets then: a) I hope you made a fortune laying them because you must clearly have been laying the hind legs off them b) why not state that before the races rather than waiting for them to get beaten and then slagging off the selections. anybody can say how bad a selection is once it's lost Thirdly, I think you'll find that even going back 2 days you're wrong. As an example I had 2.5pts on an 11/10 shot (Spice Bar) whereas today I had 2pts on a 5/6 shot. Again, an incorrect sweeping statement. Fourthly, ''I have learnt to lose money at a slower rate''. Hardly something to brag about. The aim has to be to make profit. I am still in a minute profit on this thread but I am not even remotely happy about this. I aim to make as much profit as possible. It's difficult to take staking advice from someone who is pleased as punch about losing money at a slower rate. Maybe start your own thread Erhaab. You might then realise how hard it is

[TheRat]

Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread This is not critisism at all, in fact I may have said it earlier, but backing odds on in maidens with unraced sorts from yards like SMS, Gosden and Godolphin, ie Thimaar is madness imo. He is short because he has ran and of course this can help, often does but these maidens are often targeted by the big yards and the unraced sorts could be anything. Have you done much analysis on the races you do best at? I have definately said this before but fair play cause a thread like this is only going to get stick but you have a great record so keep it up, just wanted to add this point.