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Tennis - February 7-13


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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Couple of matches that interest me tonight in Brasil. The first involving Facundo Bagnis. He faces Machado tonight and I think the value is with the Argentine. He came through qualies which included a very good win against the promising youngster Del Bonis. I think Machado should be favourite but the odds should be tighter. He's only 20 years of age and on the up and will see this as a great chance to notch a big win. At 13/8, it's worth a small back. The second match is between Igor Andreev and Leo Mayer. Andreev lost to Giraldo last week in what seemed like a bit of a shocker but the Colombian went on to push Robredo all the way in the final so Igor can be excused that result. I feel he is massively overpriced in this matchup tonight. Leo Mayer came through qualies winning three matches although the most difficult was against a player ranked 187th. Before this he had lost 11 matches in a row, dating back to last years French Open. So to beat a solid clay courter like Andreev today you would be mad backing him at general 11/8. 8/13 available on Andreev deserves to be hammered into. Bagnis bt Machado 1pt win @ 13/8 (Betfred) Andreev bt Mayer 3.5pts win @ 8/13 (Boylesports) http://commodusbetting.blogspot.com

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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Sport Tennis Event Giraldo v Mello Selection Under 22.5 games Strength 10/10 Date 08/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.72 Reasoning Massive odds move towards Mello, but it makes me look at the under. Could be a tank job from Giraldo, and if so should come under. If he's trying, could blow Mello away in less games than this. It's a reasonable total anyway, and I like the look of the under. Sport Tennis Event Andreev v Mayer Selection Mayer Strength 10/10 Date 08/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.52 Reasoning I'm a sucker for Mayer, I just like him. Brutal run the past 6-8 months, struggling with injuries and lost a lot of matches in a row. However, he's come here and won 3 matches already in qualifying without dropping a set. Could be getting his game back, and his game is very good. On the other hand, never liked Andreev, game looks big but just doesn't win as much as he should. Don't think his form is anything special at the moment, and he is very beatable.

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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Taken one more for tonight on the women's side, God help me. Carla Suarez Navarro vs Bethanie Mattek-Sands- Mattek-Sands- 3.5 game handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Was expecting a 4.5 handicap with this one so happy to take a fairly tame 3.5 in favour of the American. She's already been in one final this year and was impressive in parts against Clijsters, taking a set off the Belgian. In the indoor courts, she is usually fairly consistent and can hit with the top players in the WTA. Suarez Navarro plays her best tennis on the clay courts generally and sometimes she can spring a suprise on the outside hard courts, but she isn't entirely comfortable inside. Kanepi beat her just a few days back and Georges hammered her at the back end of last year. I consider Mattek Sands to be a better indoor player than those two and she'll play clever tennis and make the Spaniard work. They've played once before on clay where as you'd expect Suarez won but indoors it's completely different. Like the American here and a break in each set would see the handicap covered.

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Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Sport Tennis
Event Tommy Robredo vs. Fabio Fognini
Selection Robredo (-2.5) GH
Strength 10/10
Date 09/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price 188bet @ 1.94
Reasoning These two players have played against each other recently at Santiago, a game from three sets. Well, because that their last game was quite tough Tommy Robredo is a litter bit in not the same position as now he is rated with only (-2.5) GH. IMO, there are no serious reasons that could affect Tommy's chances in a meaningful way when playing against Fognini, just because Fabio has won the first set then doesn't mean that he will have better chances today as every single game it is different in his way. Robredo is a great player with greta deffesnive skills who knows very well how to play against a player like the italian who is playing a more offesnive tennis without too much stability from the baseline. Robredo is clear the better and more experienced player than Fognini and this line game handicap is just too low for a game on clay. All in all, Robredo comes after a great tournament, of course that the first game could not be the best one early on, but certain is that the difference in class and experience is really menaingful here and this line handicap is just too low. Good Luck!
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Sport Tennis Event Tsonga v Llodra Selection Llodra Strength 10/10 Date 09/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 2.87 Reasoning This price seems worth a bet. Tsonga hasn't been in top form for a while, and for some time struggling with injuries. He's looked ok this year so far, but hasn't beaten anyone of note. Llodra is very streaky, but when he's on it - it's on. He got a good win over Davydenko in round 1 and I fancy him to come through here too. Sport Tennis Event Melzer v Cilic Selection Melzer Strength 10/10 Date 09/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.75 Reasoning Not having Cilic at all. He's been found out at the top level and looks average every time I see him. Melzer on the other hand has come into his own in the past 12 months and is playing some very good stuff. With his head switched on he should own the rallies in the match and is a solid price to win this. Sport Tennis Event Wickmayer v Vesnina Selection Wickmayer Strength 10/10 Date 09/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.66 Reasoning Wickmayer looks a solid price to me. She's coming off a good but not overly taxing weekend in Fed cup with a couple of wins. Could get her into a groove here and when she's good she is very good. Vesnina has really struggled this year and doesn't look to be playing well at all. Really like Wickmayer in this one. Sport Tennis Event Murray v Baghdatis Selection Baghdatis Strength 10/10 Date 09/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Skybet @ 4.50 Reasoning This has to be worth a shot. Murray coming off a really tough loss in Aus and we don't know ho that will effect him. Last year after losing in the final he struggled for form for a while and something similar could happen here. Even if he turns up playing well Baghdatis can play too. Baggy hasn't seemed to be in the best shape lately but has enough of a game to cause Murray problems. Worth a shot.

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Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Taking two for now, haven't got much time so doing these write ups fairly quickly. Vesna Manasieva vs Petra Kvitova- Kvitova -5.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (6/10) Taking the handicap with this one rather than the unders as it's at a slightly more attractive price. Already spoke alot about Kvitova with my outright pick and expect her to have a decent week in Paris and she should cruise through this one. She's in superb form, backed up by wins over Hantuchova and Cibulkova on the indoor courts, both players of a much higher standard than her opponent today. Manasieva struggled in qualification in Paris, needing at least one tie break in every match and 3 sets in her first qualifier. Granted in the AO she beat Bartoli but this was just a one off and she was brought back to earth when Sevastova hammered her. The only meeting between the two ocurred back in 08 in a challenger on hard, where Kvitova won 6-2 6-3. She's an even better player now and a similiar score is likely IMO. Milos Raonic vs Xavier Malisse- Over 22.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Not the most attractive odds in the world but agreeing with Atko when saying this is more than likely going to be extremely tight. Raonic's serve at times is simply unreturnable and when it does come back over the net, it's usually a smash winner for the Canadian due to the power he produces on that serve. Malisse is similiar, when on song, his serve is effective and powerful and from watching Raonic at the AO, his return game isn't the greatest in the world. Doubt there will be many opportunities for either player to break serve leading to tie breaks and a couple of those like in their last meeting would cover the overs here.
LOSS LOSS Kvitova had her chances but looked a little drained from the Fed Cup, hopefully she improves for the outright. Same for Malisse really, had his chances in the second set to break but didn't take them.
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Taken one more for tonight on the women's side, God help me. Carla Suarez Navarro vs Bethanie Mattek-Sands- Mattek-Sands- 3.5 game handicap- 8/11 Bet365- (6/10) Was expecting a 4.5 handicap with this one so happy to take a fairly tame 3.5 in favour of the American. She's already been in one final this year and was impressive in parts against Clijsters, taking a set off the Belgian. In the indoor courts, she is usually fairly consistent and can hit with the top players in the WTA. Suarez Navarro plays her best tennis on the clay courts generally and sometimes she can spring a suprise on the outside hard courts, but she isn't entirely comfortable inside. Kanepi beat her just a few days back and Georges hammered her at the back end of last year. I consider Mattek Sands to be a better indoor player than those two and she'll play clever tennis and make the Spaniard work. They've played once before on clay where as you'd expect Suarez won but indoors it's completely different. Like the American here and a break in each set would see the handicap covered.
WIN Slight bit of clawback for me after the other two were lost. Didn't expect it to be such an easy win though. Overall from yesterday and today, down to a tiny loss with the outright still on. Great day for Czech, his good form continues ;)
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Querrey S.- Lacko L. Selection Lacko L. (Lay) Strength 10/10 Date 09/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Sportingbet @ 3.31 Lacko with that poor performance just cant overtake Sam.He is in really bad shape and his serve does not operate. I rate Sam as a player with advantages and he is going to use it. Sam will crush Lacko!

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Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Some early bets from me too. (4/10) J.Hajek/K.Nishikori Over 20 games @ 2.32 at Pinnacle Well, since when is Hajek such a horrible player and Nishikori someone like Federer? Hajek is not a bad player by any means and the total line along with the price looks suspicious here, but I will have to take it. Hajek does have the ability to take even a set off Kei or even to beat him. He is by no means a poor player and this total looks a little bit low.
Void right? Anyway congrats to all your bets today. As a comment to since when Nishikori is someone like Federer? Well the guy won Delray beach when he was around 18. Great asian talent he is. He is top 30 material at least.
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Each-Way L.Hewitt to win the SAP Open If there is any outright for this weeks tennis I think I'll have a shot on Hewitt in San Jose. He's really got some good chance of going all the way. If Verdasco or Monfils is'nt firing I count on Hewitt to do so. He lost his serve to Phau twice over two sets but even if that was a bit weak I don't count him out if he would meet Monfils or Verdasco. Hewitt will face Dabul next and after that Delpo or Querrey might stand in his way and he's beaten both Delpo and Querrey before.

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Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Querry is hopeless. Never bet on him.
I'm new on here but have been browsing this site for a few weeks now. Five minutes before Querry vs Lacko there was a massive shortening of odds for Lacko. He went from being 13/8 to 2/5 just before the game started to something like 13/10 at the start of the match. At the same time Querry moved from being something like 1/7 to 2/5 then 13/8 then settled at 7/20 at the start of the game. I usually bet in-play on William Hill and watch the lines very carefully for games I want to place a wager on. This drastic movement of odds shocked me and at first I thought it was a malfunction on the WH website. Then I thought Querry might have picked up an injury right before the game and the bookies were adjusting the price to reflect this. I must say I was very tempted to bet heavily on Lacko at 13/10 but chickened out. Alas! He won in straight sets! Prior to this game I lost a lot of money on the Nishikori game. After seeing the first set, I threw the kitchen sink on Nishikori to win under 10 games, to win the race to 5 games and to win the second set. Incredibly, Hajek took the game into a tie-breaker! I always tell myself I'll never be an impulsive bettor, that I'll keep my discipline no matter what and here I was getting too greedy for my own good and almost halving my bank!
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Both came in yesterday. Just found out Wickmayer might not play, so probably not a good idea to bet on her. From a dutch site, translated

It is not yet certain whether Yanina Wickmayer will play in Paris. Our compatriots ran an unfortunate leg injury after the end of Fedcup-encounter against the USA last Sunday. It went wrong when Belgian fans after the doubles match Yanina Wickmayer asked for an autograph. "There has been pushed some in the audience making the wooden wall that separates the audience from the tennis judges, suddenly broke down, let the father know Wickmayer Gazet. "The wall is smack on her leg cases. She has thus now a bruise on the ankle which is also quite swollen and a huge bruise on her leg. The physiotherapist now has a tape over her leg down, a sort of drainage so blood may move away, "explains Wickmayer out. It is still unclear whether Wickmayer will play in Paris. She was determined to achieve its spot in the top-20 back to win. The first opponent was the usual Russian Elena Vesnina.
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 (3/10) I.Ljubicic-S.Stakhovsky-Ljubicic @ 2.02 WIN (4/10) T.Berdych-(G.Garcia Lopez) X D.Ferrer-(J.Nieminen) @ 1.97 LOSS (2/10) M.Raonic-X.Malisse-Raonic @ 2.11 WIN Good day a small profit was made,I followed some Czech bets so for me was really great day.If anyone followed I congratulate. :ok

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Re: Tennis - February 7-13

I'm new on here but have been browsing this site for a few weeks now. Five minutes before Querry vs Lacko there was a massive shortening of odds for Lacko. He went from being 13/8 to 2/5 just before the game started to something like 13/10 at the start of the match. At the same time Querry moved from being something like 1/7 to 2/5 then 13/8 then settled at 7/20 at the start of the game. I usually bet in-play on William Hill and watch the lines very carefully for games I want to place a wager on. This drastic movement of odds shocked me and at first I thought it was a malfunction on the WH website. Then I thought Querry might have picked up an injury right before the game and the bookies were adjusting the price to reflect this. I must say I was very tempted to bet heavily on Lacko at 13/10 but chickened out. Alas! He won in straight sets! Prior to this game I lost a lot of money on the Nishikori game. After seeing the first set, I threw the kitchen sink on Nishikori to win under 10 games, to win the race to 5 games and to win the second set. Incredibly, Hajek took the game into a tie-breaker! I always tell myself I'll never be an impulsive bettor, that I'll keep my discipline no matter what and here I was getting too greedy for my own good and almost halving my bank!
No wrong about livebetting but if I livebet I never bet on which player to get first to 5 games or some bet like you placed. I won a bit from livebetting on a match between a asian guy Ti chen vs Ryan Harrisson in Honolulu challenger. I took Harrisson -4.5 and second set to go under 8.5 games. I knew the players and made a quick check on Ti chen at atptennis.com so it was very easy to know Harrison most likely would get at least two breaks in second set when looking at his opponents info.
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 (3/10)J.Nieminen-V.Troicki-Troicki -2.5 @ 1.85 Troicki played great he is in great form and he should continues in that form against Nieminen.Nieminen beat Ferrer but I think that Ferrer was still tired and not ready yet.Nieminen service was bad and Troicki should take everything what Nieminen give him.I think that could be 6-4 6-3 and that is more than enough to cover the handicap. (3/10) M.Llodra-J.W.Tsonga-Llodra+2.5 @ 1.85 Llodra played good against Davydenko and he is in good form,Tsonga still is not in good form and I don't think that Tsonga could win that match easily so it seems to me that +2.5 should be enough.Maybe even Llodra could win that match. (2/10)O.Dolgopolov Jr.-R.H.Ramirez-Dolgopolov-4.5 @ 1.95 Dolgopolov is great player he plays great tennis and he should win this match easy.Ramirez is average player and against Dolgopolov he don't have a chance.4.5 handicap seems more than possible. :hope

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Re: Tennis - February 7-13

(5/10) T.Berdych (-3.5) to bt. G.Garcia-Lopez @ 1.92 at Pinnacle:ok:ok (3/10) I.Ljubicic to bt. S.Stakhovsky @ 1.97 at Pinnacle:ok:ok (3/10) K.Zakopalova (-2) to bt. T.Bacsinszky @ 1.96 at Pinnacle:ok:ok (3/10) M.Oudin (+3.5) to bt. V.Dushevina @ 1.87 at Pinnacle:ok:ok (2/10) J.Dokic to bt. L.Safarova @ 3.00 at Ladbrokes:ok:ok (3/10) I.Andreev (-3) to bt. L.Mayer @ 1.92 at Pinnacle:@:@ (3/10) Rui Machado (-2) to bt. F.Bagnis @ 1.85 at Pinnacle.:ok:ok
What to say, it was a great day :D. Hajek was a push in the end, but the line moved to 19 games in the morning, which I should have waited for. Bah, who cares with such a result :rollin
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Sport Tennis Event Giraldo v Mello Selection Under 22.5 games Strength 10/10 Date 08/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.72 Reasoning Massive odds move towards Mello, but it makes me look at the under. Could be a tank job from Giraldo, and if so should come under. If he's trying, could blow Mello away in less games than this. It's a reasonable total anyway, and I like the look of the under. Sport Tennis Event Andreev v Mayer Selection Mayer Strength 10/10 Date 08/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.52 Reasoning I'm a sucker for Mayer, I just like him. Brutal run the past 6-8 months, struggling with injuries and lost a lot of matches in a row. However, he's come here and won 3 matches already in qualifying without dropping a set. Could be getting his game back, and his game is very good. On the other hand, never liked Andreev, game looks big but just doesn't win as much as he should. Don't think his form is anything special at the moment, and he is very beatable.
:notworthy
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13

- Over 22.5 games AH (Ernests Gulbis vs Thiemo de Bakker) @ 1.885 with Pinnacle (5pts) VOID - Over 23 games AH (Milos Raonic vs Xavier Malisse) @ 1.82 with Pinnacle (5pts) LOSS - Tomas Berdych -4 games AH (vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 2.25 with Pinnacle (4pts) WIN
+/-0.00. Gulbis pulled out with a fever, so the de Bakker overs was refunded. Raonic creamed Malisse, one of those things, but Berdych destroyed Garcia-Lopez to land the handicap at nice odds. As a result, I broke dead even for the day! Thought Soderling looked outstanding yesterday, I feel he's going to be a hard man to stop in this vein of form. Looking forward to seeing a few more of the contenders today. Some cracking calls yesterday chaps, let's keep them coming :ok
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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Time for today's bets. Hopefully my run can continue, although do not count on it and stake carefully. Just a few today, no need to push it if you do not like the offers that much. May add some later though. (4/10) A.Cornet (-2.5) to bt. S.Arvidsson @ 1.83 at Skybet Other bookies offer -3.5, but I will gladly take this lower price for a game lower handicap. Cornet is in great shape and played really well in Russia in the Fed Cup and now she should be motivated in her home country. Arvidsson, on the other hand, has not been winning matches lately and cannot be confident. The French player should win here. (3/10) R.Berankis (-2.5) to bt. D.Young @ 1.80 at Bet365 I did not expect such a low line, but Berankis is a class above Young in my opinion. Brown had chances against him and Berankis is much more talented. I have talked about Young previosuly and I think he is a talent gone the wrong path. All about power - and Berankis got a lesson in that against Becker yesterday, so he should be prepared. (3/10) M.Baghdatis (+4.5) to bt. A.Murray @ 1.83 at Skybet Handicap a touch big I think. Big blow for Murray in that final and who know what it has done to him. And even then, Baghdatis is no mug and knows how to stay in the match. The fact that this can be covered even in a 2-0 loss is nice, so I like this bet. I do think that Murray will have some problems recovering. Just a note - Pinnacle was down for some time, but it will probably have better odds than this, so you may want to wait.

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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Two bets for me so far ... expect to be taking a few more later. - Jurgen Melzer (vs Marin Cilic) @ 1.87 with Pinnacle (6pts) I've not been very impressed by Cilic for a long time though. He's been beating the guys you'd expect him to beat - the Kunitsyns and Zverevs of this world - but he has struggled against players of any real quality. Melzer's probably playing at the highest level he's capable of in his career. He often struggles against the Top 5 players but he won't be fazed by a meeting with the Croat. He beat him in their last meeting in Doha and has decent form indoors - he beat Nadal in Shanghai under the roof not so long ago - and his game seems more secure at the moment. He also has the benefit of having played on this court already, against Huta Galung, and will therefore be au-fait with the quick conditions. Cilic flopped badly in Zagreb, and the courts were slower there than they are here, so I expect him to need to adjust. I'm sure Cilic will return to his old form eventually but even his new coach has said it will be a work in progress. Melzer's a dangerous man to come up against because if he fires, Cilic won't have a chance. Will be close but I reckon the Austrian will come out on top. - Marcos Baghdatis +4.5 games AH (vs Andy Murray) @ 1.80 with Skybet (5pts) I really question Murray's desire to be here in Rotterdam. I think he's mainly here to play doubles with his brother, which he was committed to a long time ago. He's bound to be disappointed after his meek defeat in Melbourne to Djokovic and I think Murray may suffer a wee lull, a bit like last year after the Australian Open. He will need to change his mentality if he's to avoid a repeat. Baghdatis is a pretty dangerous man to come up against in your first match back after a Slam defeat. The Cypriot is a good indoors players and has all the shots. Fitness is often his achilles heel but he comes here fresh. He won't be fazed by the Scot and will revel in the quick conditions. Murray is, of course, the better of the two, including in indoor conditions, but I don't think we'll see the real Murray tonight. He might have enough to squeak through this one but I think Baghdatis will cause him trouble. :hope

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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Definitely on Berankis. Young is a clown IMO. Berankis -2.5 games over Young @ 4/5 (Bet365:5pts) Fancy Berankis to come through well here, definitely a better player than Young and he's doing quite well this year...3rd round in Oz and beat Becker yesterday in 2 sets...Becker not in great form but still a solid win. Young came through a tight one with Brown but Berankis should be another step up....better returner, pretty good on serve, clean ballstriker.....can be a bit inconsistent at times but not too worried about that when he's facing Young who I think is very average. GL!

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Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Few shouts on today. Considered Baggy but not 100% over his fitness. Also looked into Llodra with the handicap but not entirely convinced with the Frenchman yet. James Blake vs Milos Raonic- Raonic -2.5 game handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) Slight bit of risk with this one as it's very much experience against power. Raonic has impressed me in both the AO and again yesterday against Malisse where he failed to drop serve. He hit the ball cleanly and his forehand was filled with immense power and I reckon Blake will struggle to keep up to pace with the youngster. The American's match against Levine was his first of the season so he will still be looking to get his eye back in but due to Raonic's sheer power, Blake won't be able settle or get any rhythm. At the back end of last year he lost to Nieminen and Kubot indoors and he failed to do much throughout the year. Raonic should be pretty confident here and even with one tight set, Raonic should be able to get a read on Blake's serve and break at least once bringing the handicap into play. Marin Cilic vs Jurgen Melzer- Melzer -1.5 game handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (5/10) Just been robbed in this one as someone must have lumped on Cilic as the outright for both is around the 1.9 mark and the handicap I've taken is above evens. Not sure why the shift in odds, haven't heard anything on this one. Cilic as Atko says has looked pretty average in his recent matches. Last week Mayer really dominated the match from start to finish with Marin hitting wild shots way off the court. Melzer is the kind of guy, being a left hander who will make Cilic run about and use the angles in his favour. With his wide kick serve, he should get a number of cheap points against Cilic who isn't the most mobile of guys. The Austrian has had good success indoors in the past and I feel he should beat Cilic here who at the minute isn't anywhere near his best. Richard Berankis vs Donald Young- Berankis -2.5 game handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) Not much to add that Czech and IAG haven't said already with this one. Young just about scraped through against Brown yesterday but an on song Berankis is a much better player. His all round game is quite solid and he beat Becker, who is also a better player than Young in straight sets yesterday which will give Berankis some confidence. He made the quarters here last tim round and fully expect him to at least get past the American here.

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