Tennis - February 7-13

[Atko]

Here's what we've got in store this week ... ATP Rotterdam (500 series) - indoor hard (Decoturf) San Jose (250 series) - indoor hard Costa do Sauipe (250 series) - clay WTA Paris (premier event) - indoor hard (Greenset) Pattaya City (international event) - outdoor hard Good luck :ok

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Should be a more predictable week coming up compared to the circus in Zagreb and Johburg this week. Quick look at the outrights. Looking at the draws was planning on taking Murray, Monfils and Del Porto but the odds are too short for all 3 IMO. Del Porto thought would be higher around the double figure mark but he's not and Murray and Monfils although they should make an impression, are only around the 3s/4s. Wanted at least 5s. Will look into this further to see if it's worth it.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 I am tempted a lot by Dolgopolov or Montanes at solid prices, but I am not decided yet, since both are in the same half unfortunately.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Actually, decided now. (2/10) Each-Way A.Dolgopolov to win the Brasil Open (1,2 1/2) @ 8.00 at Stan James Dolgopolov was mighty impressive in the Australian Open and he likes clay a lot. That is the first thing. The second thing is his route to the final. First, he will probably play Ramirez-Hidalgo and that should be easy. Then, it is probably Andreev, who is not as good as him at the moment and the route will be finished by either Robredo, Giraldo, Fognini or Montanes. The first three will be tired from the previous tournament and Montanes has not had a good year so far. Dologopolov has also beaten him comfortably last time out. So it is basically 3.50 to beat those three, which is a fair price I think. And then, 8.00 will certainly look huge in the possible final against any opponent, Almagro included. Edit: The other two tournaments have solid favorites, but the odds are quite low, so I will not have an outright running there. But the standard of play should be much higher this week than it was during the last week.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 A few outrights from me to get the ball rolling ... - Robin Soderling to win Rotterdam EW @ 4.33 (1/2, 1,2) with Stan James (3pts) - Tomas Berdych to win Rotterdam EW @ 11.00 (1/2, 1,2) with Stan James (1pt) Rotterdam's got a pretty competitive field this year. The bottom half of the draw looks the one more laden with talent but I'll get to that in a second. Soderling is the top seed and is in the top half, where guys like Cilic, Melzer, Ferrer and Youzhny are. For me, Soderling has all their numbers indoors. The route I have him down for to the is Haase-Kohlschreiber-Youzhny-Melzer. It's not an easy one but I feel he can beat all of those players. He comes here fresh and won here last year so conditions suit. His huge serve is effective on the quick courts and he's trying to be more aggressive, which is a good tactic on quicker surface. I really can't see him not making the final, unless an injury comes along. As for the bottom sector, there appears to be greater competition. Murray turns up a week after Australia. I don't see him doing very much in this event. Very accomplished indoor player on his day but I'm not sure his head will be right for this sort of event after a capitulation in Melbourne. Baghdatis is his R1 opponent and there are no guarantees he'll get past him. Davydenko and Tsonga are also involved but I reckon Berdych could come out of the pack at a juicy price. The big Czech discovered some of his best form in Australia and was one of the few players who troubled Djokovic there. He's got all the components for a good indoors player - huge serve, big deep groundies and good enough movement. His draw is fairly tough but I can see him picking up momentum and picking guys off. Garcia-Lopez-Golubev-Tsonga-Baghdatis is my route for him and I can see him fending them all off. Garcia-Lopez beat him in Shanghai last year but Berdych was ill then, and I think the Spaniard won't have much to offer after a gruelling week in Zagreb. The other three are all decent indoors players but have questions to answer. With the odds tasty on the Czech and his route not altogether impossible, he's my bet to join Soderling in the final, where a 5.00 payout would be guaranteed. - Alexandr Dolgopolov to win Costa do Sauipe EW (1/2, 1,2) @ 8.00 with Stan James (2pts) Going with Czech's suggestion for this one too. This is a massive chance for the Ukrainian to frank his ascendancy in Melbourne on the clay. He is a big fan of the red dust, a man who openly admits he is more comfortable here than on any other surface. I think he showcased the talents that I and other tennis punters have been waxing lyrical about for some time in Australia, beating Soderling and Tsonga and taking a set off Murray. He's got the game to win a tournament like this - big, varied serve, good defensive skills, fine movements and a lovely array of shots. I have his route to the final to be Ramirez Hidalgo-Starace-Montanes and none of those players, although clay courters, should worry him, with the exception perhaps of Montanes if he fires. He comes here high on confidence and will relish the chance to get his first title. The Ukrainian is in the bottom half of the draw - in the top half, I fancy Almagro to come through and meet him, but the odds are poor and aren't worth the risk. Hanescu and Bellucci are dangerous opponents for him to come up against. An in-form Almagro would beat them all, but there's no value at 3.00 As for San Jose, I have Monfils to make the final from the bottom section, but he's an anti-bet at 3.50. Besides, someone like Nishikori or Berankis could have a flyer - they are more than capable of beating a laissez-faire Monfils. Berankis at odds of 41.00 was tempting, but it'd be a huge gamble - Becker could take him out in R1. The top half is a minefield - take your pick from Querrey, who always plays well in America, Del Potro, Hewitt or Verdasco. I couldn't call it with any certainty, and I'm certainly not going to put cash on it. So easy to play God, but I'm not taking the risk in San Jose.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Would they all be 1pt EW Atko? Cheers

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Would they all be 1pt EW Atko? Cheers

Sorry Perry, totally forgot to add that in! I've edited the post accordingly. I was thinking of changing to flat staking but I'm not going to change a system that for the last year has proved by in large very successful.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - January 31 - February 6 No takers on a certain Rajeev Ram to win in San Jose. 150/1 for Mr Navratilova? Final decision is not to take any outrights. Like Atko have Monfils for at least the final, which in truth he should win but for a player for would rather play tennis whilst juggling and feeding the lions, it's too skinny. GL on Dolgopolov guys, decent price but there's so many guys in that one who can beat eachother it's a no bet for me.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 I've followed Atko, I asked in one of the tennis threads a few weeks ago about outrights so pleased to see a few! For those that like a gamble... Berankis is available at 50/1 with Boylesports.. They also go 7/2 about Soderling, not ground breaking but a touch better than StanJames' 10/3. :hope & GL all

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 A couple of bets for tomorrow ... - Over 21 games (Viktor Troicki vs Thomas Schoorel) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (6pts) I think the bookies are underestimating Schoorel here. He may be young but he's certainly an up-and-coming player with huge potential. He played Federer a few weeks ago in Doha and lost 7-6 6-3, and he certainly proved he can live with the big boys. He's playing on home soil and has a huge serve that will get plenty of cheap points on the quick surface in Rotterdam. He's no slouch in rallies either but I expect him to do most of his work on serve. Being a big lefty, I don't expect Troicki, who isn't the best of returners, to get much of a read. Schoorel loves a tie-break too, so could be another element to consider. Troicki is obviously playing at the top of his game, but he's quite a serve-orientated player too. Don't see too many break opportunities here and although I'd expect Troicki to progress, I reckon Schoorel will put up a fight here. - Michael Llodra +2.5 games AH (vs Nikolay Davydenko) @ 1.92 with Pinnacle (5pts) I think this is generous on the big Frenchman against a man he's beaten the last two times they've met, including a match here three years ago. Davydenko is not the player he once was. I think 2009 was his peak and I can't see him reaching that level again. He's still a very accomplished player, but his body is letting him down - his groundies aren't as crisp as before and his serve can be attacked. He may well edge this one but I can't see it being an easy ride. Llodra's a past champion in the Dutch city and his favourite conditions are indoor hard. He's a serve-and-volleyer and will look to attack Davydenko all the time. He'll get passed on a few occasions but I feel he'll be tough for the Russian to deal with. At the peak of his powers, Davydenko would win this, but in his current guise I'm not so sure. He was beaten recently by another unorthodox player in Mayer in Melbourne and, of course, he was beaten 7-5 6-1 by Llodra in Paris in November. Think Llodra on a plus is worth a shot. I'm sure there will be a few more bets to come but for the moment I'll hang fire. This, hopefully, should be a less volatile week compared to last.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 One early one for me. Viktor Troicki vs Thomas Schoorel- Over 20.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (5/10) Think the line is on the low side here. Troicki has been struggling with a stomach injury which forced him to retire in the AO last week so there are so definites over his fitness and he may just take a bit of time to settle and get his eye back in. Schoorel is an up and coming youngster who has already pushed Federer to a tie break this season. He's a big guy, well over 6ft with a big serve, meaning he will get plenty of cheap points on serve against the Serb. Troicki has already proven this year that the big servers can cause him problems as Mahut, a similiar type of player to Schoorel took a set of him in comfortable fashion. Playing in front of his home crowd will give him a boost also so one really tight set here should be okay for the overs.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Damn Atko got in their first with that one. Need to be on my toes more. ;)

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Some early bets from me too. (4/10) T.Schoorel/V.Troicki Over 21 games @ 1.92 at Pinnacle This should be a game or so higher, Schoorel is no mug despite his poor ranking. He has loads of talent and his biggest strength is his huge serve which even gave Federer some worries in Doha. This is a quick surface and I think Schoorel will be able to trouble Troicki and maybe even nick a set. And even if he cannot, a tie-breaker and a solid second set covers this. (4/10) J.Hajek/K.Nishikori Over 20 games @ 2.32 at Pinnacle Well, since when is Hajek such a horrible player and Nishikori someone like Federer? Hajek is not a bad player by any means and the total line along with the price looks suspicious here, but I will have to take it. Hajek does have the ability to take even a set off Kei or even to beat him. He is by no means a poor player and this total looks a little bit low. (3/10) D.Brown to bt. D.Young @ 2.10 at Pinnacle At odds against, I like Brown. I think he has the style to trouble Young, who is all about power, but can go missing big time sometimes. The match will probably be on serve for a long time, but Brown has more variety in his game and he has improved tremendously last year, while Young has never really cashed on his talent in my opinion.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Btw, I would really appreciate your opinion on that Hajek game. Is it just me or does it look too low?

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Btw' date=' I would really appreciate your opinion on that Hajek game. Is it just me or does it look too low?[/quote'] Line is so low due to Hajek's poor form I guess. He rolled over to Roddick then Petzschner beat him comfortably last week. Not the best player away from clay so a defo no bet for me but if he picks his form up a bit, he could trouble Kei a bit. Would expect Kei to win this handsomly though.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Btw' date=' I would really appreciate your opinion on that Hajek game. Is it just me or does it look too low?[/quote'] Hajek has a really poor record on hard and does his best work on clay. I always feel he's liable to get broken at any time. If I'm being honest, I'd expect Kei to win readily here. He's got more in his locker on this surface.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 That may be all true, but 20 games really seems too low anyway. He beat Kamke last year, covered this against Cilic, Golubev, De Bakker (all indoors). And we should not forget the epic with Fish - and Fish was in great form back then. I will probably keep this to a little bit lower stake than my usual flat stake, but I think it is worth a shout nonetheless. It really seems like at least a 50/50 bet to me and the odds of 2.32 make it value for me then.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 I remember I backed Hajek in Stockholm open against Monaco and that was a huge misstake. Monaco had not even been training before that match and lost to Pim-Pim the match after in straight sets. It says a bit about how awful Hajek can be on indoor hardcourt.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

I remember I backed Hajek in Stockholm open against Monaco and that was a huge misstake. Monaco had not even been training before that match and lost to Pim-Pim the match after in straight sets. It says a bit about how awful Hajek can be on indoor hardcourt.

Oh sorry it was'nt Jan Hajek. It was Jan Hernych.

[Kaiser888]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Hajek is. 1. Bad on hardcourts. 2. In bad form/condition. 3. A fixer. He regularly sells matches/sets/handicaps and sold vs Petzchner in his last match, every chance he sells again. People will be speculatively punting the under line now in case he decides to fix.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Bet365 are so lazy not bothering with handicaps, so frustrating when I look at what Pinnacle are offering. Anyways, finally taken one outright this week. Petra Kvitova to win Paris each way- 7/1 Bet365- (2/10) Only worth looking at the bottom half of the draw in this one as Clijsters is in the top half and is an almost guarantee to make the final, but she's around the 2.5 mark which is crazy for an outright. Therefore see some value in Petra here who is more than capable of putting a run together to continue her good form at the start of this year. She already won the title in Brisbane a few weeks back, and despite pulling out of the following tournament in Sydney, she was impressive in the AO open before falling to Zvonareva in the quarters. However there is nobody in her half of the draw who she can't and perhaps shouldn't beat. The seeds of Sharapova, Wickmayer and Petkovic are in the bottom half but she'll only have to beat 2 of them and perhaps only one. She shouldn't be tested until at least the quarters here. She's got a qualifier in the first round, which would set up a second round meeting with either Pironkova or Strycova who Kvitova has a 100% record against both. She should cruise through that hopefully and then she'll probably have Wickmayer in the quarters. That could be her toughest test but think she should take that one. Despite Wickmayer's 3-1 H2H record, she's lost to the likes of Arn and Sevastova this year who aren't the best of players and the Belgian can often become stuck on the indoor courts so would fancy Kvitova to edge that one. If all goes to plan then and she gets through to the semis, have her down to play Petkovic, who I see winning that quarter over Sharapova who is dreadful at the minute. Kvitova's already beaten the German this year to claim her title and has won all 3 meetings on the hard/indoor hard courts. Would expect her by this time to be playing with some freedom and confidence and with that psycholgical advantage which Petkovic struggles with, to make it 4/4 on the hard courts and face Clijsters in the final. A final place would give a decent profit and as we all know, a one-off match can always throw up the odd suprise as we saw last week.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Fully support that bet, although not having any money on it. Kvitova was brilliant in the Fed Cup this weekend, seen both games and she had no problems (against Hantuchova, Cibulkova).

[kronko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Nothing for me today,I agree with Atko and CzechPunter with their selection.I think that maybe match between Golubev and Tursunov worth a try on Golubev,value is good 2.81.But on a small amount.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 I'm following you guys on Schoorel. Fingers crossed he's improved in indoor conditions since getting spanked by Mannarino and Benny Becker at the end of last season. Those results do worry me a tad but hopefully Troicki is a bit slow out of the blocks.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Nothing for me today' date='I agree with Atko and CzechPunter with their selection.I think that maybe match between Golubev and Tursunov worth a try on Golubev,value is good 2.81.But on a small amount.[/quote'] I would have been interested in Golubev but for the fact that he hasn't played much this year. A lack of game-time might be the difference against someone like Tursunov, who can turn it on when he wants to. One to watch, but I agree that the price is a little off - on form, I'd make Golubev a slight favourite indoors. The Kazakh's price is on the drift too, and alarm bells go off in the chateau when eastern Europeans drift ...

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

I'm following you guys on Schoorel. Fingers crossed he's improved in indoor conditions since getting spanked by Mannarino and Benny Becker at the end of last season. Those results do worry me a tad but hopefully Troicki is a bit slow out of the blocks.

Troicki has had bad preparations since Aussie open. I think you've got not so mutch to worry about with Schoorel being the local and all. I saw him in Stockholm open qualies doing some very good work taking out Marcel Granollers in last match then getting beat up by Benni Becker in first round but only because he had a lot of time on the court. Becker was not as tired. Schoorel should be well up for this. The dutch players allways have heavy home support in Rotterdam/Davis cup.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

I would have been interested in Golubev but for the fact that he hasn't played much this year. A lack of game-time might be the difference against someone like Tursunov' date=' who can turn it on when he wants to. One to watch, but I agree that the price is a little off - on form, I'd make Golubev a slight favourite indoors. The Kazakh's price is on the drift too, and alarm bells go off in the chateau when eastern Europeans drift ...[/quote'] Golubev was so awful in Heilbronn vs Knittel so I'd be worried if I where him when his opponent is a Tursunov with motivation to go up the rankings and do some damage this season after so many ankle surgeries. As said on atptennis.com TURSUNOV LOOKING TO MOUNT COMEBACK

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Hi guys, 3 picks for ATP ROTTERDAM: BERDYCH TO DEFEAT GARCIA-LOPEZ @1.45 pinnaclesports SIMON - PAIRE UNDER 20.5 GAMES @1.92 pinnaclesports KOHLSCHREIBER TO DEFEAT LU @1.32 pinnaclesports Berdych is a great indoors player, Garcia-Lopez is mainly a claycourter. Berdych just has too much power for him. Simon has been in such a good form in Australia winning in Sydney and then coming very close to defeating Federer in Australian Open. Paire is a French qualifier with no results on ATP-level so it should be an easy win for Simon. Lu does not have any good results on European indoor surface courts. Kohlschreiber from the other hand is a great indoors player with good server and better overall game than Lu.

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 G MONFILS SAP Open Outright 11/4 Betfred 2pt WIN Short price favourite is Monfils but he warrents that here as it doesn't appear he has a strong challenger to him to get to the final. Verdasco, Hewitt, Del Potro are all in the seperate top half of the draw, so Monfils doesn't have to face them until the final, he has beaten Verdasco last 2 times they have met, I doubt Hewitt can challenge & Del Potro still aint found the form that won the US Open, so Monfils could win this tournament without having to be required to play his best.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Troicki wiping the floor with Schoorel. He does seem alot more solid these days.