Tennis - February 7-13

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Well, Schoorel gets badly spanked. 1st set: Troicki 100% first serve, offered no breakpoint.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Well, as I have hoped for, he guarantees a push for 21 and a win for 20.5 in the second set. Nice one, regardless of what happens.

[slider24]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Thanks lads, good call :ok

[sPAJA]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

One early one for me. Viktor Troicki vs Thomas Schoorel- Over 20.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (5/10) Think the line is on the low side here. Troicki has been struggling with a stomach injury which forced him to retire in the AO last week so there are so definites over his fitness and he may just take a bit of time to settle and get his eye back in. Schoorel is an up and coming youngster who has already pushed Federer to a tie break this season. He's a big guy, well over 6ft with a big serve, meaning he will get plenty of cheap points on serve against the Serb. Troicki has already proven this year that the big servers can cause him problems as Mahut, a similiar type of player to Schoorel took a set of him in comfortable fashion. Playing in front of his home crowd will give him a boost also so one really tight set here should be okay for the overs.

good job ;)

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 That one game kinda hurts, but its a no loss at least.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

- Over 21 games (Viktor Troicki vs Thomas Schoorel) @ 1.926 with Pinnacle (6pts) PUSH - Michael Llodra +2.5 games AH (vs Nikolay Davydenko) @ 1.92 with Pinnacle (5pts) WIN

+4.6pts for today. Llodra was always in control against Davydenko and served very well, a good win for him. I'm delighted to get a push on the Troicki-Schoorel overs, because the Dutchman never got going until the second set and even then, Troicki had chances. Nice one for fishy, who gets the win on the O20.5 line. See, there are benefits of bet365 ;)

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Sport Tennis Event Andujar v Ginemo Traver Selection Andujar Strength 10/10 Date 07/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Blue Square @ 1.80 Reasoning Andujar more suited to clay where Ginemo traver better on quicker surfaces despite being Spanish. Neither in good form, but the times I've seen Ginemo Traver this year he's been awful. Don't think his head is right and think this will be another loss. Sport Tennis Event Blake v Levine Selection Levine Strength 10/10 Date 07/02/2011 Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 2.75 Reasoning Price coming in and I'm willing to follow it. Thought Blake had retired at the end of last year, and probably should! He looked really poor last year and first match of the year think he'll struggle. Levine is better than his ranking. Struggled with niggling injuries last year, but qualified here and should eb sharper than Blake. He can make a lot of balls and has a good chance to win this.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Lol Cramer :D Great minds think alike I guess. (3/10) P.Andujar to bt D.Gimeno-Traver @ 1.77 at Pinnacle Gimeno-Traver in rotten form really and Andujar is dominating their H2H meetings. Not much to say, Gimeno has not even played on clay this year and unless he suddenly rediscovers some of his best form, he should fall easily here. (2/10) J.Levine to bt. J.Blake @ 2.75 at Pinnacle At this price, anytime. Blake has not played a match this year yet and I have to question his motivation. Does he even want to play competitively? Last year has shown he is not able to match even average players. Levine has played here, has some experience under his belt and is a young and improving player. He should be 2.20 at most. This price is ridiculous, regardless of the result.

[kronko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 (3/10) I.Ljubicic-S.Stakhovsky-Ljubicic @ 2.02 Ljubicic is better player than Stakhovsky and Ljubicic has a great score in Rotterdam so I think that he should go at least in second round.Ljubicic loves this surface and in Zagreb he looks prepared and in good shape. (4/10) T.Berdych-(G.Garcia Lopez) X D.Ferrer-(J.Nieminen) @ 1.97 Berdych played great in AO and he should continues that form in Rotterdam,Garcia played in Zagreb and he played very bad,I'm not sure how he even was in the semi's.Berdych for my is a big favorite and he should easily win that match.Ferrer was great in AO and he really impresses me.If he plays like he plays in AO he should have no problems against players like Nieminen.I think that Ferrer is one of the best players in the world,there are maybe three or four players that could beat him. (2/10) M.Raonic-X.Malisse-Raonic @ 2.11 Raonic is good player,he's service is great and I think that he could beat Malisse.They played before and Malisse won 7-6 7-6,but now Raonic plays better and he is three years older so for me he's favorite in this match. :hope

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Let's get'em Czech:hope

[joe mavis]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Actually, decided now. (2/10) Each-Way A.Dolgopolov to win the Brasil Open (1,2 1/2) @ 8.00 at Stan James Dolgopolov was mighty impressive in the Australian Open and he likes clay a lot. That is the first thing. The second thing is his route to the final. First, he will probably play Ramirez-Hidalgo and that should be easy. Then, it is probably Andreev, who is not as good as him at the moment and the route will be finished by either Robredo, Giraldo, Fognini or Montanes. The first three will be tired from the previous tournament and Montanes has not had a good year so far. Dologopolov has also beaten him comfortably last time out. So it is basically 3.50 to beat those three, which is a fair price I think. And then, 8.00 will certainly look huge in the possible final against any opponent, Almagro included. Edit: The other two tournaments have solid favorites, but the odds are quite low, so I will not have an outright running there. But the standard of play should be much higher this week than it was during the last week.

Ok I have decided to jump on the Dolygopolov band wagon not much to say about this bet that has not been said in the above post and Atko's post he is in good form with a good showing in the Oz open and I think 8/1 is a fair price which is what price I took at Ladbrokes today on my luch break - will look to lay the bet off if he makes the semi finals at around 3/1 (hopefully) 1pt on Dolygopolov to win the Brasil open at 8/1 Ladbrokes

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

One early one for me. Viktor Troicki vs Thomas Schoorel- Over 20.5 games- 10/11 Bet365- (5/10) Think the line is on the low side here. Troicki has been struggling with a stomach injury which forced him to retire in the AO last week so there are so definites over his fitness and he may just take a bit of time to settle and get his eye back in. Schoorel is an up and coming youngster who has already pushed Federer to a tie break this season. He's a big guy, well over 6ft with a big serve, meaning he will get plenty of cheap points on serve against the Serb. Troicki has already proven this year that the big servers can cause him problems as Mahut, a similiar type of player to Schoorel took a set of him in comfortable fashion. Playing in front of his home crowd will give him a boost also so one really tight set here should be okay for the overs.

WIN Thought the bet was gone after that first set but thankfully the Dutchman held his serve in that second set. Think that's the first time Bet365 has payed dividends for me.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Three further bets for me ... - Over 22.5 games AH (Ernests Gulbis vs Thiemo de Bakker) @ 1.885 with Pinnacle (5pts) I'm quite surprised to see this line quite so low and having looked at both players from all angles, all I can see here is a close match. Gulbis is more comfortable in these conditions but he is not playing particularly well at the moment. He is such a hard man to catch on a good day but he has the tools to rack up games on serve against an average returner like de Bakker. The Dutchman, tipped as one of the bright young talents of the game, is a player I take note of more on the clay, which is why I've gone for the overs rather than the plus. His game is more suited, by his own admission, to the red brick, but he'll still have enough to keep things ticking over here. He's got a ginormous serve and a big forehand too, and I expect him to dominate his service game. He hasn't won a match since Shanghai but he's pretty much covered the overs line in every match since. He's good for a tie-break and that would help keep this line ticking over. I expect de Bakker to rise to the occasion, playing on home soil, and with Gulbis not performing as well as he can do, I think we'll see a pretty even contest here. Two tight sets are enough to cover this line and I think we'll see something along those lines in a serve-dominated encounter on quick courts. - Over 23 games AH (Milos Raonic vs Xavier Malisse) @ 1.82 with Pinnacle (5pts) A bit like the match above, this is another one that I see being very close. The courts in San Jose are very quick and that will suit both men here, who play with a lot of power and rely on their serves. Raonic has really burst onto the scene and looks a fine prospect. He lost to Greul in Johannesburg last week but performed pretty well on serve throughout the event. Malisse is a man who is approaching something like his old game these days. He's another who can blow players off the court and with neither man particularly blessed with their defensive attributes, I can't see either making headway against the serve. The met a couple of years ago and Malisse won 7-6 7-6, which I feel is further proof that this match will be close. I expected an over 23.5 game line so this holds some value for me, although the price isn't something to shout about. 1.80 is probably it's maximum. Should be close between the Canadian and the Belgian. - Tomas Berdych -4 games AH (vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 2.25 with Pinnacle (4pts) I've taken Berdych for the tournament so I don't really want to re-hash what I said in my earlier tip about Berdych too much. This is a bad time for Garcia-Lopez to face a good opponent in the opening match of a 500 series. I thought he looked completely goosed in Zagreb. He won through to the semis but Bogomolov and Lacko caused him problems. To me, he seems a bit unfit, his movement isn't what it was, and he's struggling on serve. He beat Berdych in Shanghai last year on hard but the Czech was ill in that match. He's looking near his best after a good Australian Open and conditions here will suit him. He'll get a lot of power off his serve and groundies and will be able to break past the Spaniard's defences. I'm expecting a good week from the Czech here and I fancy him to squeeze past a fatigued Garcia-Lopez with a bit to spare. I also had a look at Querrey, Kohlschreiber and Starace in some capacity, either on handicaps or as doubles, but in the end I found enough reasons to put me off all three. :hope

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Sport	Tennis
Event	Melanie Oudin vs. Vera Dushevina
Selection	Oudin
Strength	10/10
Date	08/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.60
Reasoning	Well, four defeates in a row have created these odds on a probable Melanie Oudin's victory, the american girl has lost twice from Klara Zakopalova and recently and Fed Cup from Belgium (Klijsters and Wickmayer). Of course that Melanie Oudin didn't played her best tennis in these games as it looks quite strange to lose five games in a new season and win only one time against not a difficult opponent like Ling Zhang. If to judge from the results opint of view Melanie Oudin's form didn't looked good at all in 2011, no doubts about that, but despite these results she has been competitive in both of the games against Klara Zakopalova and also in her game against Maria Kirilenko. Today the ameican player will have another task which could not be such difficult as the odds suggest, from the class point of view Vera Dushevina is not the better player as she is even under Oudin's class, Vera possess a quite nice forehand and she can hit some nice winners, she can also hit with the backhand nice and powerful shots but she lakcs many times the accuracy, lacks the stability. On the other hand Oudin did played some nice tennis last year here at Paris, on this surface, remember when she was eliminated only by Dementieva in a quality game. Oudin likes this surface and also this tournament and IMO she should be the favourite for this one as she possess better qualities than Dushevina, there is just all about american's bad results till now but another tournament is another chance, so great value here. Good Luck!

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 I like some bets from the WTA and Zagreb, will come back with San Jose later if I like something there. Meanwhile, Andujar won very easily, but Brown is still a clown it seems and Levine was stunned by Blake's presence I guess. Here's a hoping for a better day today :hope. (5/10) T.Berdych (-3.5) to bt. G.Garcia-Lopez @ 1.92 at Pinnacle Berdych has a lot of ambitions in this tournament and Garcia-Lopez is having an average season so far. His showing in Zagreb was awful and he was blown off the court by Murray. Berdych is worse than Murray, but surely much better than Lacko and Dodig, so I can see him running away with this. (3/10) I.Ljubicic to bt. S.Stakhovsky @ 1.97 at Pinnacle One thing - if Ljubicic starts losing this kind of matches, I cannot see him staying in tennis for much longer. I can accept the defeat to Dodig, but if he loses here, I will strongly reconsider my opinion of him. Stakhovsky is no world-beater and surely cannot outpower him, so the only question here is whether the Croat still has it in him. I think he does, but a loss here would reveal a lot. (3/10) K.Zakopalova (-2) to bt. T.Bacsinszky @ 1.96 at Pinnacle Hard to see past Klara here. She beat Baczinsky once already and it was a comfortable win. She has rediscovered some form at the beginning of the season, while you just couldn't trust Timea. The odds are good and Zakopalova likes the conditions from what I know, so this looks nice. She is in pretty good form, after all. (3/10) M.Oudin (+3.5) to bt. V.Dushevina @ 1.87 at Pinnacle Outright is a good choice too, but I prefer the handicap. The reason while Oudin looks in such a bad form is obvious - she had tough opponents. You cannot expect her to beat Clijsters in Belgium, but you certainly can expect her to push Dushevina hard. Dushevina has a loss to Cirstea and a struggle with Camerin this year and both are much worse than Oudin. The conditions will suit Oudin after the Fed Cup and I can see her getting something from this match. (2/10) J.Dokic to bt. L.Safarova @ 3.00 at Ladbrokes There is a reason why I am taking the lower odds, but at a one-ball bookie. Not many of those have the match offered. The thing is, Safarova has some problems with her leg and she pulled out of a Fed Cup match in which she had a lot of trouble against a 17-year old unknown. Dokic is much better player than that one and Safarova might pull out again. Lower stakes are recommended though, as this is a pretty risky bet.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Ok, here's round two with some more bets. Interesting day for sure. San Jose has way too many tricky matches. (3/10) I.Andreev (-3) to bt. L.Mayer @ 1.92 at Pinnacle I said it a lot of times and I will say it again. Mayer is not a player that can challenge the top order, to which Andreev is somewhat returning. He lost in the last match, but only just and Mayer is a step down in quality. Andreev is class above right now and the handicap is reasonable on clay. (3/10) Rui Machado (-2) to bt. F.Bagnis @ 1.85 at Pinnacle A solid ATP player against a challenger-level youngster. With fancy name, however. Nevertheless, Machado should get some wins under the belt this year - his losses, after all, were against good opponents and you cannot blame him for losing to Bellucci or Giraldo. Beat Bagnis already, which is also nice to see. Phew. Too many bets. Fingers crossed.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Like most of your bets Czech. You've pushed the boat out today :tongue2 Only guy I'd be really concerned about is Machado. Bagnis is a decent player, up-and-coming clay courter. Qualified here and also qualified last week - took a set off Giraldo, which looks like decent form considering Santi made the final. Machado should win but don't think that'll be straightforward. Concur in principle on Andreev and we have the same Berdych bet in essence. That line does seem low - hopefully Tomas smashes him. Oh, and we've also got the Robredo-Fognini re-match tonight. That'll be worth watching, considering the fireworks that happened in the Santiago semi-final last weekend :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Hopefully the boat will not go down :D Yep, but I still rate Machado higher and he must be hungry for some wins. He was not playing that bad so far this season, considering his losses. And the Robredo-Fognini match is ONLY for watching though, I cannot see a bet there. That can really go any possible way.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Taking two for now, haven't got much time so doing these write ups fairly quickly. Vesna Manasieva vs Petra Kvitova- Kvitova -5.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (6/10) Taking the handicap with this one rather than the unders as it's at a slightly more attractive price. Already spoke alot about Kvitova with my outright pick and expect her to have a decent week in Paris and she should cruise through this one. She's in superb form, backed up by wins over Hantuchova and Cibulkova on the indoor courts, both players of a much higher standard than her opponent today. Manasieva struggled in qualification in Paris, needing at least one tie break in every match and 3 sets in her first qualifier. Granted in the AO she beat Bartoli but this was just a one off and she was brought back to earth when Sevastova hammered her. The only meeting between the two ocurred back in 08 in a challenger on hard, where Kvitova won 6-2 6-3. She's an even better player now and a similiar score is likely IMO. Milos Raonic vs Xavier Malisse- Over 22.5 games- 8/11 Bet365- (5/10) Not the most attractive odds in the world but agreeing with Atko when saying this is more than likely going to be extremely tight. Raonic's serve at times is simply unreturnable and when it does come back over the net, it's usually a smash winner for the Canadian due to the power he produces on that serve. Malisse is similiar, when on song, his serve is effective and powerful and from watching Raonic at the AO, his return game isn't the greatest in the world. Doubt there will be many opportunities for either player to break serve leading to tie breaks and a couple of those like in their last meeting would cover the overs here.

[martinhattrick]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 what about Giraldo´s price? is there something i am missing? he can´t be paying 1.74 against an average player such as Melo unless something happened to him...

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Well, he blew the finals just a few days ago, so there are many questions. What is his attitude? What is his fitness condition? How much has he adapted to the new conditions (which are supposedly quite different from the last tournament)? With no answers, the price is about right I think.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

what about Giraldo´s price? is there something i am missing? he can´t be paying 1.74 against an average player such as Melo unless something happened to him...

Possible fatigue. He played a lot of three setters last week and served for the title against Robredo. Mentally, he could be suspect, especially as Santiago was his first final, he won't be used to all the rigours that come with that. One must remember that clay is also not his best surface - he prefers hard courts - and if he does well on clay, it's generally on the quicker courts. Pretty sure the courts at Costa do Sauipe are slower than Santiago, certainly looked that way yesterday. Mello is content in these conditions and is playing in his home country. Not a great player but certainly capable of beating someone like Giraldo if the Colombian doesn't fire. Definitely a dangerous match to put cash on ...

[Alex_B]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 I must be out of my mind here..... My bet was : Ernests Gulbis vs Thiemo de Bakker And the game is : Philipp Petzschner vs Thiemo de Bakker ?????? What's going on??? :puke

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 Ernests Gulbis probably pulled out, so Petzschner was given the entry as the lucky loser. That is what I assume at least.

[Alex_B]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 ok...my bet was 5 minutes before the game started....:\

[laszlo75]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

	08/02/2011 Due to fever Ernests Gulbis had withdrawn from his singles match today against Thiemo De Bakker

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

	08/02/2011 Due to fever Ernests Gulbis had withdrawn from his singles match today against Thiemo De Bakker

Probably due to a hangover more like ... Ernie loves a party, and let's face it, he's in the right country to do it. Probably still lording it up 50kms up the roa d in the 'Dam.

[laszlo75]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

	08/02/2011 Due to fever Ernests Gulbis had withdrawn from his singles match today against Thiemo De Bakker

http://www.abnamrowtt.nl/main.cfm?lang=1&c_id=92&site_id=9&main_id=92&pers_id=297

[Alex_B]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13 thanks guys, but my bet is still on....that's weird!!! :rollin

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - February 7-13

Sport	Tennis
Event	Melanie Oudin vs. Vera Dushevina
Selection	Oudin
Strength	10/10
Date	08/02/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.60
Reasoning	Well, four defeates in a row have created these odds on a probable Melanie Oudin's victory, the american girl has lost twice from Klara Zakopalova and recently and Fed Cup from Belgium (Klijsters and Wickmayer). Of course that Melanie Oudin didn't played her best tennis in these games as it looks quite strange to lose five games in a new season and win only one time against not a difficult opponent like Ling Zhang. If to judge from the results opint of view Melanie Oudin's form didn't looked good at all in 2011, no doubts about that, but despite these results she has been competitive in both of the games against Klara Zakopalova and also in her game against Maria Kirilenko. Today the ameican player will have another task which could not be such difficult as the odds suggest, from the class point of view Vera Dushevina is not the better player as she is even under Oudin's class, Vera possess a quite nice forehand and she can hit some nice winners, she can also hit with the backhand nice and powerful shots but she lakcs many times the accuracy, lacks the stability. On the other hand Oudin did played some nice tennis last year here at Paris, on this surface, remember when she was eliminated only by Dementieva in a quality game. Oudin likes this surface and also this tournament and IMO she should be the favourite for this one as she possess better qualities than Dushevina, there is just all about american's bad results till now but another tournament is another chance, so great value here. Good Luck!

Good post, good reasoning. Well played!