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Re: Staking Plans

but BH wouldn't like it.
To be honest Ginge I dont know why I bother with you, you dont believe Sig, but beleive this, my post wasnt just an independant view of things around here. Lets just leave it at that shall we?? Unless you must have the last word as usual.
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Re: Staking Plans What should have been a good discussion thread was taken off the rails by Ginge attacking another poster and calling them a liar, there is no need for it really is there? I remember Billy The Punter coming under a similar attack when Ginge did not believe his claims of being a pro punter, seemed to steal his thunder. Ginge, you are a well respected poster but at times your single mindedness and attitude really let you down. Anyone dares to question your methods and you go on the attack, happened on here and happened on TRF too didn't it when someone questioned you? The concern I have is that lurkers considering signing up may think twice if they feel their posts are going to get attacked and ripped to bits by a cyber bully, doesn't reflect the general good feeling among posters on ATR. :ok

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Re: Staking Plans Great character assasination there Mowgli, well done! :clap Question: Do you really think that post difuses the situation or enflames it? I thought BH did not want me to comment further on my reasons? I was going to pm him about my reasons, but will have to put it on here now. Have you got BTP's permission to rekindle old disputes like that? I thought we'd settled that, but as you've made it public, will need to defend myself on something that I believed had been done with pms. At the time of Billy's leaving I was getting on reasonably well with him, we'd forgotten our differences. I am going to have to defend myself strongly on here with your attack Mowgli.

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Re: Staking Plans Now Open pm to BH. SIG's first post did say “what I'd like is to get an idea of how the rest of you guys manage this side of your betting and any views you may have on staking plans and even money management in general”. I thought he was going to give us “an idea of how” his staking plan worked. Especially after making the claims of significant profit, made purely because of his staking plan. Though of course he does not have to do so. As you know, I am always happy to describe how I do things, responding to SIG's initial question by explaining my staking plan with # 2. Am also happy to answer any questions put to me. As I did with SIG's questions to me in # 4 and answered in # 22 and 23. Am sorry if this has led me to being frustrated when others fail to reciprocate. Again, I recognise they do not have to. I note you asked for “more details” BH in # 5.It does leave a feeling (rightly or wrongly) there is something to hide. I was doing what SIG wanted, giving “an idea of how I manage” and “views” I “have on staking plans and even money management”. I was giving my views, to beware of staking plans which rely on sequence and / or are accompanied by outlandish, unsubstantiated claims. Given the lack of information I tried to guess SIG's system and asked a question in # 28 how his staking plan would work given the 6 different sets of 20 races with 10 winners in each example. I did say in that post “I expect I've got your staking plan wrong”, expecting to be put right. But was told it did not relate to his staking because my sample did not have “the high strike rate and short losing runs”. So I changed the sample to a high strike rate and short losing runs, showing winners outnumbering losers by 2 to 1 in # 34. Yet was greeted by what I took (rightly or wrongly) to be a snide remark by yourself (# 35), seemingly suggesting I was wrong to want an answer. Adding to my frustration. With this, I felt the need to defend myself, and possibly over-stepped the mark in doing so, and going on for too long. If you feel I did so, then I apologise. My concern was for other punters who are easily led. Most staking plans do not significantly increase profits, and most rely on winners occurring in a particular order. And there is no knowing whether SIG's staking plan is one of that type, without further information which was not forthcoming. With a system that bets at long odds on; probabilities mean it can go on producing good results for far longer than others. An answer to my question in # 34 would have proven either way, whether it is likely to remain profitable (does / does not rely on sequence). At least if SIG does work that out himself (without necessarily telling us): He will know IF “sequence” does NOT effect his results greatly; the system is likely to remain profitable in the long term. So hopefully, SIG can take something positive out of my ramblings. Unfortunately we will not know the results. My concern comes from knowing how so called “Staking Plans” in the racing world have been sold in the past. Wanting punters to send say a month of results to them. Then selling a “Staking Plan” that enables a set of results to make a profit / more profit. If the month's results had been spaced out, with winners coming after a long line of losers in fig 1: (fig 1) L, L, L, L, 3/1 W, L, L, L, 5/1 W, L, L, 2/1, L, L, L 4/1, L, L, L, W Evens. Which with betting level stakes breaks even. With the above sequence the punter may be advised to “Increase stakes after a loser”: 1 point win bet Increase by 1 point after each loser. After a winner stakes go back to 1 point. Results in a 30 point profit. Once putting the staking plan in to practice however, if the winners come in a different order as in fig 2 a loss is made: L, L, L, L, L, L, L, L, W Evens, W 5/1, W 4/1, L, W 3/1, W 2/1, L, L, L, L, L, L. Results in a 32 point loss. If however the punter sent original results like fig 2 (breaking even at level stakes instead of -32). He might be advised: “Decrease stakes after a loser”. 1 point win bets until a winner. Then x stake by 4. Decrease stake by 1 point after each loser until 1 point is reached. Then back to the start (always increase x 4 after a winner). So with past (known) results, instead of breaking even he'd make a 30 point profit. Where as after putting the system in to practice, the results might come as Fig 1 (well spaced out). In which case a 21 point loss is made. I say again, most staking plans rely on sequence. We do not know if SIG's staking plan relies on sequence, because he won't answer any questions. What we do know is: SIG said last year had an average price of “just short of 3/1”, with a longest losing run of 2 which only happened once; means he must have had results similar to below (fig 3). I have worked it out to 70% strike rate, same as he claims for 2011. It might be slightly different for 2010, but with the longest losing run being 2 which only happened once, it is difficult to see any other way it could have worked out any differently. Unless as well as the above duck egg stat, by some massive coincidence it went one winner, one loser, one winner, one loser throughout the whole season to make a 50% strike rate. (fig 3) W 2/1 (33.3%), L, W 6/4 (40%), W 3/1 (25%), W 5/2 (28.6), L, W 3/1 (25), L, W 5/1 (16.7), W 9/1 (10), L, L, W 7/1 (12.5), W 7/1 (12.5), L, W Evens (50), W 14/1 (6.7), W 4/6 (60), W 11/1 (8.3), W 11/4 (26.7) All 14 winners out of 20 races (70%) add up to 355.3, divided by the 14 winners means an average price of 25.4 which is between 11/4 (26.7% and 3/1 (25%) “just short of 3/1”. For a punter to do this for 20 races is remarkable. For a punter to maintain this strike rate throughout the year at an average price of just short of 3/1 is unbelievable. In January SIG had at least 26 bets, so if that rate is typical, there would be 312 bets last year (12 x 26). So to get the full picture of how well SIG did in 2010, we must add 15.6 times those 20 (fig 3) all in a row (without the one occasion of two duck eggs together). Though I am surprised such a remarkable Staking Plan did not make greater profit. 2, 1.5, 3, 2.5, 3, 5, 9, 10, 7, 7, 1, 14, 0.66, 11, 2.75 79.41 = + 73.41 x 15.6 gives a 1145.196 point profit for a 1 point even stake on 2010. So what would it be with SIG's amazing staking plan? Why the same staking plan / system should produce an average price of 3/1 in 2010, with prices as in fig 3, and then suddenly change on January 1st to practically all odds-on bets (for an average 2011 price of 1\2); is very strange indeed. Unless of course the staking plan only started in December, and /or only had 10 bets in the whole year, winning between 4 and 7. In which case calling it a “year” is misleading; and total of bets would not be enough to proof a staking plan with such a short average price accounting for a high strike rate. I do think if members claim a high percentage of profit which is highly unlikely if not downright impossible; members should be allowed to ask them to justify those statistics, by explaining how it works. Otherwise it just encourages members to claim anything. I am not suggesting SIG is trying to sell his staking plan. But by being so vociferous about how staking plans can improve profit, it sends out a signal to vulnerable punters (like cpo who does not even know how to work out his winnings) who may be fooled by statistics like figures (1 and 2) above. I sometimes speak out when I think some members might be vulnerable to misleading information. Even if that upsets one or two; or those who simply don't understand the mathematics of betting, and so don't understand the problems I am seeking to address. Sorry if I have taken it too far. Mark

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Re: Staking Plans Samba, I wrote that yesterday, and had intended to send it as a pm to BH this morning after I'd checked it. However, with Mowgli's attack on me, calling me a "cyber bully", I had to make my explanation public. I wish there had been no need to put it on here. As I never sent it as a pm, I am quite entitled to post it here.:ok

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Re: Staking Plans

Samba, I wrote that yesterday, and had intended to send it as a pm to BH this morning after I'd checked it. However, with Mowgli's attack on me, calling me a "cyber bully", I had to make my explanation public. I wish there had been no need to put it on here. As I never sent it as a pm, I am quite entitled to post it here.:ok
I was just teasing :ok fwiw, I think the basis of the point you were making is a valid one. It's just the 'dog with a bone' style that :wall people! lol
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Re: Staking Plans If SIG and the mods are agreeable, and in the interests of "general good feeling": As a gesture of good will. I would have no objection to # 35 to 51, and 60 onwards (inclusive) to be deleted. And, if you wish; for the thread to be locked. Sorry if I've taken my opinions too far, I only had the interests of vulnerable members at heart.

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Re: Staking Plans Ginge, thanks for the message! I dont give a monkeys about you questioning people on their methods or claims, in fact its quite healthy on a public forum and people can learn from others. All i said was that you had gone far enough in demanding a response from Sig and thought it was becoming aggressive behaviour, you say frustrating, I accept that but it was like a jockey whipping a horse excessively without giving it time to respond and i felt the need as my role as one of 7 mods (i might add) to have a word. You say you did it for the sake of the members on the PL, well how do you think a few of your posts look to some, even the new member in post #62 commented on it, lots of members dislike me for being so called 'PL Police like' at times, well thats what i am asked to do and have to play devils advocate at times, if people cant see that then fine but i wont stand by and see new or old members 'attacked' like that. I did ask Sig about his plan, he never offered it, i didnt ask him again, thats fine. Lets move on, we have a good atmosphere on the ATR generally and that includes you. :ok

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Re: Staking Plans Here's my take, Ginge, I think you make many valid points here, and also in other arguments had between yourself and others. However, for newer posters, your posting tone becomes both aggressive and confrontational very quickly. Your post to mowgli is just ridiculous IMO, and has actually made me wonder where you feel you stand more than the rest of the thread: Do you really think that post difuses the situation or enflames it? It wasnt overly relevant to the situation, more just an observation of what this thread turned into, along with past threads. I thought BH did not want me to comment further on my reasons? I was going to pm him about my reasons, but will have to put it on here now. You'll have to put it on here because you've got to have the last word ? Have you got BTP's permission to rekindle old disputes like that? Why would anyone need to get a banned poster's "permission" :unsure to post an old dispute which, arguably, you caused. I am going to have to defend myself strongly on here with your attack Mowgli. Or you could bite your tongue for once, and do yourself a favour ? Ginge, dont get me wrong, I actually have a lot of respect for both your posts with regard to tipping, and also your posts with regard to racing which is probably the reason I have stayed out of some of these disputes in the past. But posts like the above cross the line IMO, especially when they aren't one off's. I should note, no doubt mowgli will be on to defend himself, but character assasination ??!

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Re: Staking Plans

If SIG and the mods are agreeable, and in the interests of "general good feeling": As a gesture of good will. I would have no objection to # 35 to 51, and 60 onwards (inclusive) to be deleted. And, if you wish; for the thread to be locked. Sorry if I've taken my opinions too far, I only had the interests of vulnerable members at heart.
Blimey, you must be the new PL owner?:loon I will be back to this thread very shortly...
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Re: Staking Plans I posted in this thread because I don't want it made to appear like a personal vendetta from BH against Ginge, it isn't. It's often BH that ends up pulling posters for lack of reasoning etc, it was usually me a while back when we got a load over from Betfair etc. I didn't want this all being put on BH. I felt the attack on SIG was out of order but I'd restrained from saying anything. I had made my feelings known in private. I mentioned BTP because he was a new poster when he came under attack too. I've got PL's best interests at heart and felt it didn't reflect well on would be new posters. Ginge - when you are giving advice you are one if the most helpful posters to new punters on here, hence me nominating you for Master Mentor in those awards. You might not believe what someone posts but there is a way of going about it. If SIG was running a thread or a system he'd be asked for reasoning, explanations etc but he was simply asking about staking plans, not claiming he's PL's answer to Patrick Veitch. :D If you want to discuss anything further by pm feel free to contact me.

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Re: Staking Plans It's simple as this Ginge. You force your opinions on people and you sound arrogant when doing so. Arrogance isn't something that is associated with PL, it's something I've always tried to drum into members to not be. There's no doubt you have knowledge, but there's limits to how far you should go with it. :ok Sig, I'll PM this as well, but please stop using red text, it's very harsh on the eyes mate. ;)

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Re: Staking Plans Personally I started last season with a 50 pt betting bank and a staking plan between 0.25 pt - 3 pts (i.e 12 fold difference between min and max strength bets). This accomodated all losing runs nicely as the average bet was around 1 pt and there were very few max bets throughout the season. At the turn of the year the bank had grown to 250 pts (sorry Ginge can't provide the link as its deemed as advertising!!) which then allowed me to increase the £'s per point, and now a 1 pt bet now is bigger than the equivalent 1 pt bet would have been 12 months ago. But that is it now, stakes will stay that level for all of next season. What I have done is narrow down my scale though, to 0.5 - 2 pts as I didnt want such a large discrepency between the min and max bets. So now I have four strengths of bet - most bets are minimum strength because those formlines havent been boosted. The more boosts the form has and the greater the percieved value, the greater the bet. However, both ticks are needed to blow a full 2 pts, so if there is a horse available at 33/1 I think should be 14/1 it could only get 2 pt treatment if that form has also been rubber stamped, otherwise its 1 pt max. Similarly, if the form has been franked massively but the perceived value is only slightly above my 'true' odds it doesn't get the full treatment. As others have said, staking is somthing I have never been fully happy with but since September this has generally worked well for me. Interesting thread (arguments aside!)

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Re: Staking Plans Interesting title:Staking Plans.. Few years ago i got busted without using staking plan.:wall I was making money constantly and then BOOM..following my gut feeling i put 25% from my bank on one bet..and then i wanted to recover faster and bet another 25% and in the end i bet everything left :) u know this story, almost everybody(semi pro or pro bettor) have done this,sometime in your life :) So after days and nights searching i find out that neither Martingale is working(maybe 50% Martingale system betting on draws is profitable and i would love to discuss this one with someone) neither Fabounachi(or what ever his name was). Betting to take fixed amount is very risky(betting on odds 1.90 to get 1 point, u must bet 1.11 points and after bad losing strike from 9 lost and 1 (last) won u have staked 1755.62 pts to get 1 pt profit :) And so on and so..Now i'm using one staking plan also risky but profitable. Its combination between "Ratchet staking" and my staking.Here we go: 1)Must have initial bank: Lets say its 1000 euros, or pounds or better said points. 2)Initial bank:2% from the bank 3)only one bet per day:odds always 1.80 and over 4)when lost bet tomorrow on the same amount 5)when win bet the winnings tomorrow 6)if u won tomorrow take the winnings and start new serie(the day after tomorrow) 7)recalculate your bet size only when get to 1100 pts Example: 30 days in a month:30 bets I and my fellas always get to 60%+ won picks:18 bets won out of 30 (-20)WW(+64.8) (-20)L (-20)WL (-20)WL (-20)L (-20)L (-20)L (-20)L (-20)WW(+64.8) (-20)L (-20)WW(+64.8) (-20)WW(+64.8) (-20)L (-20)WW(+64.8) (-20)L (-20)WL (-20)WW(+64.8) (-20)WL (-20)WW(+64.8) staked:19 seriesx20=380 pts earned:7x64.8=453.6 pts profit:73.6 pts *note: I'm talking here about betting on flat odds(1.80) not considering the higher odds(like 2.20, 2.50 or higher which i use)

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Re: Staking Plans

Sorry I haven't been about much lately - I've had a limited internet connection which just gave me enough time to get my selections together and the money on and little time to read and respond to anything. Ginge - I completely welcome your contribution to this thread and having read through your responses and indeed your own thread, I echo a number of others posts stating that you are a minefield of information and have a real understanding and passion for this sport. My intention with this thread was simply to ask how other PL members manage this side of their betting. I never expected detailed accounts, just a general overview of how people approach this side of things. I quoted some numbers in my first post which were correct at the time of posting and which I fully standby. Maybe I was wrong not to explain these in more detail but I was/am in the middle of moving house and didn't have the time to begin to explain how my plan works other than the explaination I offered in my second post.
I can understand now why you did not respond to my questions earlier SIG. Had you said that you did not have time etc. and would get back to me later: It could have saved my frustration. I am sorry some of my points seem a little too forceful, they weren't meant as "demands". Just thought (it seems wrongly) you were avoiding my questions. :ok
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Re: Staking Plans

I didn't expect those numbers I quoted to come under such heavy scrutiny, something I didn't have time to respond properly which led to you piling on the pressure, demanding a detailed explaination and when that wasn't forthcoming, implying that I was lying. I agree that you are right to ask for more details but your method in doing so could use some refinement. You said that you only had the best interests of the more vunerable PL members at heart which is honorable but I never once tried to sell them anything or even tell them to use a particular plan. The only advice I ever offered in this thread was that anyone wanting to try out a staking plan should first have a look at the % staking approach which I believe is a good starting point for anyone. I don't think that offering this piece of advice is wrong and deserves such a harsh line of defence.
As I said SIG, without more information from you than was forthcoming. Why should anyone believe you? If I came on here and said I made a profit on the horses; I would not expect anyone to believe me. Now, after members can see my thoughts and tips, I hope members would believe me. But if they don't that's fine too, they don't have to. Even though in effect, they are "calling me a liar". Hopefully, given time, I will believe you in all your claims. Please don't take offence at that. I am always sceptical, because I know how hard it is to make a profit. I never thought you were trying to sell anything SIG. It's just you imply that a staking plan can transform a marginal profit (at level stakes) in to a massive profit. Of course it is possible, but it can also be a high risk strategy. Most punters are probably aware of this, but more vulnerable ones may not. They might be looking at staking plans and be vulnerable to people who do sell staking plans. Especially if on threads like this, there are claims of massive profits. You do seem to extoll the virtues of staking plans, and imply there is little risk.
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Re: Staking Plans

You also said it is a failing of yours to go on the attack which is fine - We all have our short-comings! The only advice I would offer you is to tune it down a bit. Make your point and then wait for a response. If the response you get isn't what you want or what you expected, then certainly ask again and if the response still doesn't satisfy you, then you win. You don't need to go as far as to imply someone is lying just because they haven't the want or the time to fully explain themselves. Aggressive questioning and demands, regardless of the reasons for them will only piss people off. As an old friend of mine used to tell me when I got all heated up, take a chill pill and relax :)
I never said attacking paople was a failing of mine. Now, I might say you are lying there, but will put it down as a misunderstanding. All I did was agree with Samba, that I can be like a dog with a bone sometimes. As I said earlier, the simple coutesy of "I have not got time at the moment to respond to your questions, but will later" would have lessened my frustration SIG. I guess we all have failings.;)
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Re: Staking Plans

I don't want this thread locked as some people have made a great contrubition to it as it has been insightful to see how people approach this side of things. I still believe that anyone who currently bets to and makes a profit with even stakes can improve this margin by employing the correct staking plan. For example, let's take a look at the system numbers I quoted in the very first post... The selection method is something I developed last year. After much testing and refining, it produced a decent result last year. The numbers I quoted are from a part of this system - The selections that have a rating above a certian number are used as plays for this system. Using this method produced wonderful results last year but being mister perfect, I spent most of Christmas refining it more and back-testing to produce what I currently have now. Let's look at January's results....
I don't want it locked either SIG, just made the offer because I know Paul Ross does not like it when there is confrontation.:ok I agree, staking plans can improve profit, I use one (of sorts) myself. You have made some worthwhile points on here yourself. It was the claim of massive (unexplained) profits due to the staking plan and implying there was little risk; that I thought dangerous for vulnerable punters to see. Am sorry I misunderstood your "growth figures" I am not used to working with "banks", and always work out growth as profit on stakes. You do it differently, realise that now. Am grateful to Skylark for putting me right. It is a shame you let me waffle on for so long without doing the same. It could have been made clearer too what you meant; but I suppose you are right. You did not realise it was going to be looked in to in such detail. I have no problem believing your January bets / statistics SIG, the strike rate and average price taken are totally believable. Will come back to them. It is the average price of 3/1 in 2010 that I had a problem with, and the fact you said your longest losing run using this system was two, and that only happened once. Now it is zero, because the double duck eggs happened in 2011 not 2010. As I showed in fig 3 of # 66. An average price of 3/1 with only one losing run of just two during a whole year; if the frequency of bets is the same as january 2011 - is impossible. Anyone with any knowledge of percentages can see it is impossible. However... Earlier in this thread I asked you if you'd made any mistakes in your first post. You said NOT. In the first post you said your system produced an average price of 3/1 for 2010. In your last post, you NOW say it has been CHANGED, refined. SO IT WAS A DIFFERENT SYSTEM. There WERE INNACURACIES IN THAT FIRST POST. NO WONDER I CAME TO THE WRONG CONCLUSION WHEN THE INFORMATION YOU GAVE WAS INCORRECT. Despite me asking you! In the first post, the ! on 3/1 implies last years staking plan worked better than this years, so why change the plan?
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Re: Staking Plans

A) 000000111111111111 B) 111111111111000000 C) 111111000000111111 D) 111100011110001111 E) 000111111111111000 F) 110110110110110110 G) 011011011011011011 H) 110011110011110011 I) 001111001111001111 J) 111100111100111100 K) 101101101101101101 L) 011011011011011011
SIG, As I said, most "staking plans" rely on SEQUENCE to make a good profit. For your own benifit, it would be good for you to work out what your system would do in all the above sequences. Given a price of 1\2 for every winner, 12 winners in 18 races in each. At level stakes every set of 18 works out at breaking even. If your staking plan produces vastly different results ie some brilliant results, some awful, with all the rest in between - then your staking plan is probably not as good as you think it is. If it goes bust or nearly bust in any set of 18 races, then you are likely to stuggle when eventually that set of circumstances appears in your results. If it gives results of either side of breaking even, with most producing good results - it will probably remain profitable. You don't have to tell me / us the results. Just thought it might give you an idea whether your system would ever fail, given the inevitable losing run. Would not like to see you lose everything.:ok
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Re: Staking Plans

I can understand now why you did not respond to my questions earlier SIG. Had you said that you did not have time etc. and would get back to me later: It could have saved my frustration. I am sorry some of my points seem a little too forceful' date=' they weren't meant as "demands". Just thought (it seems wrongly) you were avoiding my questions. :ok[/quote'] From post 40, one of the many times I mentioned it...
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Re: Staking Plans SIG... Why dont you keep the auld gobble shut, i read all of Ginge's posts and he ask plain simple questions that you couldnt answer. Yes, he can talk a lot.... BUT the man knows what he is talking about and he has my respect and im sure nearly everybody on this site's respect too!! I am only responding as in your last post you tried to imply Ginge is a billy-no-mates on the site which aint true.. :ok Now can ya stop bitching!! :zzz:loon

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Re: Staking Plans

SIG... Why dont you keep the auld gobble shut, i read all of Ginge's posts and he ask plain simple questions that you couldnt answer.
Sure... that sort of attitude is gonna attract and keep new members. If you have a problem, or don't agree then there are other ways to go about it... that there is just downright rude and IMO uncalled for. (no doubt many will disagree).
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