BBOTD - 21/1/11

[tgc100969]

3.20 Chepstow Skippers Lad 0.5pts e/w BOG Willhills Absolutely chucked in on last seasons form around this time of year. Ignore last couple of runs over further this is his distance. Only real issue is he makes an early mistake as can lose confidence during his races. Big fancy at a nice price to come back to form over right distance with handicapper giving him a chance.

[tgc100969]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11

3.20 Chepstow Skippers Lad 0.5pts e/w BOG Willhills Absolutely chucked in on last seasons form around this time of year. Ignore last couple of runs over further this is his distance. Only real issue is he makes an early mistake as can lose confidence during his races. Big fancy at a nice price to come back to form over right distance with handicapper giving him a chance.

Sorry forgot price its 25/1:hope

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 3.20 Chepstow Hobbs Dream 11/4 william hill win This will be a real slog in the conditions but this horse has already shown he relishes this heavy ground. Won its last 2 races very easily over this sort of trip and is clearly on the improve. Don't think the penalty will stop this horse today even though this represents a step up in class.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 4:15 Ling - Rubenstar Was going for his third straight win 2 days ago in a clamier but could only manage 3rd, although he returns to handicap company today and has Spencer taking the ride. He has won on the 8yo previously over CD and the relatively in-form Rubenstar can do it again. win @ sp

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 2:30 Lingfield - Moremaloke - Back He boasts the best form in the race and therefore the highest rating. He is really nicely favourably treated at the weights in relation to his rating and it would be desperately disappointing if he wasn't good enough to get a win here 1pt win @ SP

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 2nd Choice due to Catterick being frozen off. Last 4 races reads: 3333 the filly just doesn,t want to put her head in front, Jockey Ryan Clark takes off 5lb and must find the combination to her winning one day, today might be it. There's not much to beat in this race and i'll take yet another chance on her popping her cherry at the 15th attempt. 4:35 Wolverhampton Force to Spend. 1pt win 7/2 most firms.

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 4:15 Lingfield - Cut And Thrust - e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Well bred 5 year old who should be much better than he has proved to be, but I think he has his best chance to gain a victory that has eluded him for just over 2 years. He's a former Michael Jarvis trained gelding, who cost 85,000gns as a yearling but never justified that price tag and was eventually sold out of Jarvis' for 5,000gns in October of '09. However, he's highly interesting now returning to the scene of 2 of his best performances, having won here over C&D and run a fine race when coming clear with polytrack specialist, Sarah's Art, in a similar handicap over C&D when making his debut for the Mark Wellings yard. That was a very impressive run and he was only caught in the final strides of the race, in which the leading 2 pulled over 2 lengths clear of the field having taken advantage of the pace setters going off to fast in front. I'm expecting a similarly run race here, as there are a number of front runners in the field which may set it up for something coming from behind, which could be Cut And Thrust, who seems highly suited by truly run races. His course and distance form of 1-2 shows he handles conditions with ease and he hasn't been running too badly prior to a 2 month break, which he now returns from. His record fresh reads ; 6-9-4, but that doesn't tell the whole story as he wasn't beaten too far on those occasions and all were at Kempton, a track he'd be much less suited to, despite having won there before. Last time out, Cut And Thrust was sent off as a 9/2 shot in a similar contest at Wolverhampton. The final result of 7th place from 10 runners doesn't look in any way impressive, however, he was on the inside rail when making a move but couldn't get a clear run through and it was game over. That's the worst place to be positioned at Wolverhampton and I think the 4 length defeat shouldn't be taken as a bad performance in a race that didn't pan out to suit, so hopefully things go better here today. Liam Jones takes the ride today, for the 2nd time on this fellow. He's bang in form and riding at the top of his game having had 9 winners from 29 rides since the beginning of December. The only time he rode Cut And Thrust was on quick ground at Leicester, in which he finished last but he's not a good horse on the turf at all. Jones only comes for 1 ride today and rode a good winner here at Lingfield yesterday. The Mark Wellings yard didn't have a winner in all of 2010 but they don't have many horses at all and only had 26 runners in the whole year. Wellings travels a total of 320 miles to bring out his only runner of the day to his favourite track and I'm hoping that it's not all in vein, as the horse is clearly suited to Lingfield and looks very well handicapped now that he's on his last winning mark and 2lbs lower than when losing out narrowly to the rapid finishing Sarah's Art. The key to his chances are a very good gallop, which I'm anticipating and hoping for, as he's bred to get further but has lots of speed. The "slingshot" effect at Lingfield seems exactly what he enjoys and he'll hopefully come into the home straight down the middle of the track before powering home. He's drawn in stall 11, which is usually not a place to be but it should ensure he'll get a nice sit on the outside, where I'd much rather see him positioned as he'll not end up on the rail like last time out at Wolverhampton. I can't really get my head around the fact that he's priced as the 20/1 outsider of the field, as he's an 8/1 shot in my book with very solid place claims. I'm playing decent each way stakes here as he's vastly overpriced and I don't expect it to be around come race time, although he rarely ever shortens in the market. There are many dangers in what's a trappy affair but I believe he's the best handicapped and most likely to be suited by how this could pan out, so hopefully it'll all go to plan. If there's a slow gallop then I wouldn't give him much hope but it seems likely that they will go off fairly hard in front and play into the hands of this well handicapped 5 year old.

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 2.20 Catterick Carrietau ew 8/1 Bet >365 Course and distance winner who can bounce back today after poor performance last time out Wetherby. Carrietau is an out and out front runner and there does not appear to be a lot of pace in the race. If given a soft lead will try to make all here.

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 Single 21 Jan 2011 - 2:55 Catterick - Win Best Odds Guaranteed! Bureaucrat @ 20/1 Stake : £1.00 Bureaucrat i feel is a big price @ 20/1,in its 48 runs to date has an excellent strike rate of 10 wins over 20 percent including a class 2 contest,Bureaucrat has won over this distance before,Bureucrat ran 20 days after nearly a year off and should come on for that run. 1 point win placed with will hill

[Tamagin]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 3.05 Lingfield – INDIAN VIOLET 1pt win 8-1 Skybet After two wins here at Lingfield Indian Violet has been a bit disappointing in his two runs since but I believe there are good reasons to forgive those runs. His run at Kempton saw him hang and in my opinion he looked not to enjoy going right handed and ran no race at all that day. Last time out he returned to Lingfield but they went no pace which caused him to run keenly. The trip of 12f was a little further than he would prefer which showed when he weakened a furlong this was also a class higher as well. He drops back to a class 6 race today over 10f and from stall 2 which should be ideal today and he looks massively overpriced at 8-1

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 3.40pm @ Lingfield 'Lopinot' 14/1 Ladrokes BOG I fancy a few today but this looks the standout bet at the prices. Go back 4 runs (and 9 months) and won a competitive handicap, little done since but goes well fresh, has Crowley onboard, a decent draw and runs off the same mark as that last win. I think it's overpriced, I think it's decent value. 1 point win

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 19:35 Wolv Francis Albert - Still seeking first win in this class 7. Stall 9 should not be a problem as long as it bolts out of the stalls like it can do. Last 2 runs been very slow out the stalls and thus not interested but prior to that it bolts out. Very strong front runner who lets itself down here or there with drifting last few yards etc and needs to put all the pieces together. If does a great chance at 16/1 0.5EW V/C

[SIG]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 14.30 Lingfield Not much going on today - The only selection I can find is for Morermaloke. He is the stand-out selection in a weak field, the only threat coming from Pinapple Pete but I don't think he has the class to beat More to the line. Morermaloke - 1pt Win - 1/3 @ Ladbrokes

[zoolander]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 Lingfield 4:15 Advertisement 7-2 BET365(BOG) 1 Point WIN Noseda yard is on fire lately running at 40+% strike rate. I had this narrowed this down to Rubenstar and Advertisement but now Rubenstar has been pulled Advertisement is clear favorite in my eyes and still at a good price despite the non runner. George Baker gets the leg up makes the claim stronger. Up in weights from recent runs but shouldnt make too much of a difference as i cant see a serious danger as the rest of the field looks weak.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 4.35 Wolverhampton Metropolitan Chief 14/1 William Will E/W Think this one has a good each way chance. Don't see why it is such a big price compared to back bacarra when it was only 2 lengths behind that one last time out. Very bad race but just think this one is over priced. Decent run last time out. Won over CD and good jockey on board.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 6.35 Wolv - Il Battista - win at 6/1 BOG bet365 There's a few lightly raced maiden winners in this race who could be anything, but I think the most exposed horse in the field has a good chance. He put up an improved performance last time chasing home Fred Willets at Southwell with multiple winners in 3rd and 4th That was over 6F and the step up to 7F tonight will be in his favour He's a front runner - he's also got plenty of stamina as he's already won over 7F at Southwell I think he has to make all and burn them off tonight I suppose there is a doubt that he might be a 'Southwell horse' as his best performances have come there but he ran ok in a much better race at Lingfield and has some g/f form on turf so hopefully he's not a one surface horse. The track at Wolves is still riding a bit slow I've got him well clear on the speed figs but the other lightly raced ones are open to improvement, so it's more the way i envisage the race panning out than the figs which draws me to him.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 Kammamuri 3.05 Lingfield. 0.5 points each way. Showed fair form in Italy and wasn't allowed to show best in a falsely run race in England last time. Can do much better than that, so worth another chance off the same mark of 64. Could have that extra gear when needed.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 3.40 ling Sasheen monster price, denied by small margin lto and rejuvenated by headgear. Big run expected. 6/1 vc ew

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 3:05 Edgeworth @ Lingfield - Been in good form and can be excused for latest run when it was a beaten favourite.Is a course and distance winner and runs off the same mark as its last three races although it has won off a higher mark.Good jockey booked to ride in Chris Catlin who was onboard the horse for its last two races so knows how it runs 1 pt win bet @ 9/2 VCBet

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 JEMIMAVILLE 4.35 Wolverhampton. 0.5 points each way. Gets in again off a mark of 49 and does have the ability and bare form to go well today. The trip and surface aren't a concern and the race should throw up enough pace. Can be a bit hit and miss, but won't get many better chance to score in a handicap.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 7.35 Wolverhampton Last race of the day for my other bet for the day and its a pretty weak affair and in my opinion should be cominated by the 4 at the top of the market, I am going to oppose Cheveyo simply because he appears to flatter in the finishing and hangs badly and puts me off for win purposes and also those runs are on the fibresand and not polytrack. Also going to oppose current favourite Duke of Rainford who beat my 2 selections last time out beating Bluebok by 1/2 length but he didnt get the clearest passage and gets a 6lb turn around in the weights which looks more than enough for 1/2 length and he has been running consistently recently and is well handicapped last winning off a 12lb higher mark! The other I am gonna back is Tyrannorsaurus Rex who again finished behind Duke Of Rainford by 3 lengths, and has been running better than form figures suggest he does need to find a race falling apart after it has been run at a strong pace as he has to be produced extremely late and often takes the hard route through but again is very well handicapped now 22lb lower than last win on turf and if building on recent promise has to be involved in such a weak affair! 1pt win Bluebok 7/2 Bet365

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 17:05 Wolverhampton The in-form Tom Dascombe sends just the two horses to Wolverhampton tonight and his best chances seems to lie in this race. Place and Chips came off from a break last time out over this course and distance and he looked much improved from previous efforts. Travelled well throughout the race and had he been in a better position may have got a lot closer. Stayed on well from the back of the field to finish just two lengths off the eventual winner who he reopposes here tonight off 5lb better terms which I believe will be enough to see a reverse in the placings, especially if Richard Kingscote rides him a lot more positively. Juarla looks to be the main danger for me despite the 5lb rise after appreciating the step back in trip over this course and distance LTO. Still lightly raced so there could well be another win for him over this trip here today considering last time out was his first attempt at the minimum trip but my money is going on Place and Chips to reverse the form. 1pt win Place and Chips @ 3/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 7.05 Wolves: Muqalad 1pt win @ 7/1 Will Hill BOG This is not a good contest and a case can be made for a few. However think this one has a chance. Has had three starts in handicap company, all of which leave a lot to be desired, however as a consequence has dropped to a handy looking mark on best form shown in maiden company and with trainer in decent looking form at the minute, previous running could be left behind here tonight at a decent price. Been a bit of money about for it today too.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 6:35 Wolves Acclamazing 1pt win - 7/2 (VC) Think the Botti three year old will go off shorter than this and 5/2 is a tad generous. Is the only one with a course and distance win in the field and has only had two starts so is open to plenty of improvement. Il Battista will do well to win off 85 and looks more suited to Southwell than Wolves. Madam Mayem took four starts to get off the mark in a poor maiden and steps up to 7f for the first time. Amwell Pinot has had chances to get off the mark in handicap company, hasn't taken it and is still being raised a couple of lbs for his efforts. Swimsuit is back down to 7f but is a woeful price based on the one workmanlike win in a poor small field at 4/9 with the runner-up and third well beaten on their next starts. Silver Turn also beat a small field at Southwell and has been given quite a harsh mark imo. Acclamazing fought gamely to see off March On Beetroot who went on to beat Kingscroft who recently won nicely at odds-on. Looks to me like the horse is best handicapped out of the lot and is generous at 5/2. Now out to 7/2 which might be a big price.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 late bets

19:35 Wolv Francis Albert - Still seeking first win in this class 7. Stall 9 should not be a problem as long as it bolts out of the stalls like it can do. Last 2 runs been very slow out the stalls and thus not interested but prior to that it bolts out. Very strong front runner who lets itself down here or there with drifting last few yards etc and needs to put all the pieces together. If does a great chance at 16/1 0.5EW V/C

6.35 Wolv - Il Battista - win at 6/1 BOG bet365 There's a few lightly raced maiden winners in this race who could be anything, but I think the most exposed horse in the field has a good chance. He put up an improved performance last time chasing home Fred Willets at Southwell with multiple winners in 3rd and 4th That was over 6F and the step up to 7F tonight will be in his favour He's a front runner - he's also got plenty of stamina as he's already won over 7F at Southwell I think he has to make all and burn them off tonight I suppose there is a doubt that he might be a 'Southwell horse' as his best performances have come there but he ran ok in a much better race at Lingfield and has some g/f form on turf so hopefully he's not a one surface horse. The track at Wolves is still riding a bit slow I've got him well clear on the speed figs but the other lightly raced ones are open to improvement, so it's more the way i envisage the race panning out than the figs which draws me to him.

7.35 Wolverhampton Last race of the day for my other bet for the day and its a pretty weak affair and in my opinion should be cominated by the 4 at the top of the market, I am going to oppose Cheveyo simply because he appears to flatter in the finishing and hangs badly and puts me off for win purposes and also those runs are on the fibresand and not polytrack. Also going to oppose current favourite Duke of Rainford who beat my 2 selections last time out beating Bluebok by 1/2 length but he didnt get the clearest passage and gets a 6lb turn around in the weights which looks more than enough for 1/2 length and he has been running consistently recently and is well handicapped last winning off a 12lb higher mark! The other I am gonna back is Tyrannorsaurus Rex who again finished behind Duke Of Rainford by 3 lengths, and has been running better than form figures suggest he does need to find a race falling apart after it has been run at a strong pace as he has to be produced extremely late and often takes the hard route through but again is very well handicapped now 22lb lower than last win on turf and if building on recent promise has to be involved in such a weak affair! 1pt win Bluebok 7/2 Bet365

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD - 21/1/11 7.35 wolves Tyrannosaurus Rex must have a chance here. Racing of a very low mark and back at a track he likes. Trainer starting to fire and apart from Duke of Rainford the oppostion is nothing special. 1 Pt win 11/2 Bet365