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Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Atko

By Atko
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

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CzechPunter

CzechPunter

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) It must be a horrible feeling, so many people watching and you are almost not able to win a point on your serve. I feel a little bit pity for him. Hope he can win a game. Just one. Come on :D Edit: Meanwhile, Schwank was even easier than I could predict. That was truly a gift, hope somebody followed. Hopefully Schnyder can learn from Mayer. Edit2: I did not go against Jankovic in the end, hopefully I will not regret it in the end. And CAN I CATCH A BREAK FINALLY? Date....4-1 up in the third set, serving for the match at 5-4, lost 5-7. Kamke and Date, I am not happy at all. Ah well, life goes on. I guess it is time to find another solid underdog that is going to lose from a dominating position :(. By the way, the head flying off Radwanska's racquet was hilarious :D.

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captaincool

captaincool

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

It must be a horrible feeling, so many people watching and you are almost not able to win a point on your serve. I feel a little bit pity for him. Hope he can win a game. Just one. Come on :D Edit: Meanwhile, Schwank was even easier than I could predict. That was truly a gift, hope somebody followed. Hopefully Schnyder can learn from Mayer. Edit2: Thankfully I did not go against Jankovic. Thanks guys for not convincing me :D And CAN I CATCH A BREAK FINALLY? Date....4-1 up in the third set, serving for the match at 5-4, lost 5-7. Kamke and Date, I am not happy at all. Ah well, life goes on. I guess it is time to find another solid underdog that is going to lose from a dominating position :(. By the way, the head flying off Radwanska's racquet was hilarious :D.
Radwanska match was absolute torture to watch and not just from a punting perspective. I've never seen two players serve as badly as that. Don't speak to soon about the Jankovic match - my least favourite player is up to her usual tricks in the second set.... Looks like Ebden is making a game of it against Russell. He was two sets down and 4-1 behind in the third, he's now serving to take the match into a final set. Hoping the crowd can take him there. :hope
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red_impact

red_impact

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Australian Open 2011 - Mens - Milos Raonic vs Bjorn Phau (Handicap 2-way - Won games) Milos Raonic -2.5 1.83 Win Australian Open 2011 - Mens - David Nalbandian vs Lleyton Hewitt (Matchwinner) Lleyton Hewitt 2.10 Pending Australian Open 2011 - Mens - Donald Young vs Marin Cilic (Setbet) Marin Cilic to win 3 - 0 2.20 Win Australian Open 2011 - Mens - Rui Machado vs Santiago Giraldo (Handicap 2-way - Won games) Santiago Giraldo -7.5 1.83 Win Australian Open 2011 - Mens - Dudi Sela vs Juan Martin Del Potro (Setbet) Juan Martin Del Potro to win 3 - 0 2.75 Win Australian Open 2011 - Mens - Gilles Muller vs Simon Stadler (Totalt games 2-way) Under 36.5 2.10 Win Only 5€ stake but I'm happy if it works. Only Hewitt left. Sorry for not posting any of these but my confidence is not high in betting. I follow on Del Potro here, Raonic I saw in asia before doing very well and Phau is trash to me. Someone posted about Raonic here to. Giraldo was very good in both Brisbane and Auckland so I took him for granted to cover. Cilic opponent is totally trash to so I could not see anything then Cilic in 3.

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slovenian_better

slovenian_better

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Florian Mayer - Kei Nishikori 1 1,44 @bet365 Florian has been playing really good tennis in this year, beating Davidenko in 4 sets in first round. In Sydney he lost to Troicki, who has been playing also great. Nishikori is perspective young player, but Mayer has more experiences and he uses a lot of slices and spins on his backhand, which is unpleasant to everyone. Nishikori beat Fognini in first round who is player for clay courts. It's not that Nishikori is bad, but Florian really plays good and he should win this one. In this year he had 2 loses, one to Troicki, other to Stepanek. But both have increased their form this year, so thoses 2 loses arent important in match against Nishikori, who is at the moment in worse form than Radek and Viktor.

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homunculus

homunculus

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Zvonareva vs Bammer: Bammer +1.5 set @Pinnacle 4' date=34 (1 unit) LOSS Stepanek vs Gremelmayr: under 35 games @Pinnacle 1,909 (2 units) WIN
Reasonable profit today. Bammer played like as if she already had a back flight booked. OK, this was an action shot anyway. Stepanek bet was pretty comfortable win.
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IAmGooner

IAmGooner

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Vinci (to bt Molik) x Stakhovsky (to bt Brands) @ 1.773 (Bet365:3pts)
LOSS....choke from Vinci serving for it. Thats life. Some nice winners in here last night, well done to many!...:)...i failed to pull the trigger on all my leans discussed in here y'day Zaka, Barrois and Petrova....but there'll be more chances.
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Atko

Atko

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

- Alexandr Dolgopolov -5 games AH (vs Mikhail Kukushkin) @ 2.05 with Pinnacle (8/10) WIN - Juan Martin Del Potro -5 games AH (vs Dudi Sela) @ 1.877 with Pinnacle (7/10) PUSH - David Ferrer -6 games (vs Jarkko Nieminen) @ 2.02 with Pinnacle (6/10) LOSS - Milos Raonic (vs Bjorn Phau) @ 2.00 with Stan James (6/10) WIN - Kei Nishikori (vs Fabio Fognini) x Thomaz Bellucci (vs Ricardo Mello) @ 1.97 with Stan James (5/10) WIN - Andreas Seppi (vs Arnaud Clement) x Albert Montanes (vs Dustin Brown) @ 1.96 with Stan James (5/10) WIN - Denis Istomin -1.5 sets AH (vs Jan Hernych) @ 2.13 with 188bet (5/10) LOSS
Good profit in the end. Dolgopolov covered the line in exemplary fashion to net the big one, Raonic was comfortable, although Del Potro squandered a 5-2 lead when serving for the second set that would have covered the line. A push is fine though. Ferrer was a shocker, went AWOL in the third and that killed the bet. Istomin was a terrible call - should have stayed away - but both doubles came in. Nishikori was easy enough but Montanes, Bellucci and Seppi all went the distance. Seppi's comeback was incredible. Stamina won the day though, as expected. Also a big thanks to homunculus, who I followed on the Stepanek unders. Capped off a nice day's work. Well done to all other winners too, some cracking shouts :ok
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fishy25

fishy25

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

Not a great start yesterday but hope for better today. Agreeing with Atko with regards to Ferrer and Dolgopolov. Was also hoping to take unders on the Soderling match but the price is terrible for what the bet actually is. Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Mikhail Kukushkin- Dolgopolov -4.5 handicap- 4/5 Bet365- (5/10) Dolgopolov has really came of sorts in the last year, leading to a top 50 spot for the Ukranian. Already had a couple of warm ups down under, so he'll certainly be settled and raring to go. IMO, he's the kind of player who will beat other guys around the same ability level or slightly lower 9/10 times now as he's matured in the past 12 months. It's only where he'll play the top 20 players where he struggles, but he's still young enough to develop his game further. As Atko pointed out, he does prefer the clay but he certainly is no mug on other surfaces, shown by impressive wins over Baghdatis and Youzhny last year. Kukushkin is a good draw from Dolgopolov here, as he's only played two matches in Australia to warm up, with indifferent results against players well below Dolgopolov's standard. Last season, Kukushkin barely beat anyone of note on the outdoor hard courts, which are slower. H2H is 2-0 in Dolgopolov's favour, he should make it 3 without much trouble. Jarkko Nieminen vs David Ferrer- Ferrer -6.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Terrible odds if compared to what Atko got for what is ironically a slightly riskier bet as well but still happy to take it. Ferrer is one of those guys when looked at, you wouldn't expect him to be any good at catching a ball let alone tennis but what I really like about him is he's clever. He knows he's not going to serve ace after ace, nor winner after winner but what he will do is gradually grind down his opponent into making mistakes which is what has made him such a good player. Coming in with good form as well, winning in Auckland beating 4 guys who are certainly no pushovers. The Fin on the other hand is likely to be struggling with fitness concerns here. Had to retire against Gil last week due to a knee injury, which is far from perfect preparation for a grand slam. This could be perfect for Ferrer as he'll make Nieminen run all over the place and monouevre the ball cleverly. Feel it might be a close first set, but if Ferrer gets throught this, it could be all one way traffic. Just to show I'm not copying all of Atko's picks with a different write up with poorer odds :lol : Rui Machado vs Santiago Giraldo- Giraldo -7.5 handicap- Evens Bet365- (4/10) Took a handicap last week with Giraldo against Montanes and he came through so will back him once again here. Although it's a big handicap for someone outside the top 50, Giraldo can certainly cover it if he plays like he's done for the past 2 weeks. Impressive wins over Simon, Montanes and Bellucci will give him alot of confidence going into this week. A year ago, he produced a fine display in the first round knocking out Robredo in straights so he'll not be scared of the ocassion. His opponent only played a total of 5 matches on the hard last year, and those were all qualifiers against lesser players. Then in preparation for this week, he lost both his matches this year against Falla, who is not fo Giraldo's quality, so don't see how Machado is going to seriously trouble the Colombian here. This isn't clay and Giraldo is no qualifier, so hoping for an easy win for him here. Bojana Jovanovski vs Kai-Chen Chang- Jananovski -4.5 handicap- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Have to favour the young Serbian here after the strides she made last week. Won 7 matches on on the trot, including wins against Kanepi, Rezai and Pennett before narrowly falling to Li. She played some really impressive tennis though and looks like she has worked hard over the off season to improve her game. Last season she was getting through the qualifiers but mostly getting hammered in the first round by a seeded player. She should have some confidence though from last week and in the women's game, confidence plays a large part. Chang hasn't played a match this season and was playing carpet events at the back end of last year. This is a complete contrast to what is in store today against a very much in form Jovanovski. They've played eachother twice, with the Serbian winning both, last of those coming last year where she covered this handicap. Hopefully she'll carry her good form into this week and take this one with the handicap.
WIN LOSS WIN WIN Not bad, little frustrated that Ferrer couldn't make it a full house but decent profit. Was a little fortunate with Giraldo and Jovanovski though to be honest.
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captaincool

captaincool

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

I don't fancy getting too heavily involved in the Australian Open yet, but I've gone for the following tonight Tsonga to beat Petzschner 3-0 @1.83 - Coral Petzchner won his first game in ages when he beat De Bakker in Auckland, but then got badly beaten by Nalbandian in the next round. Even when at his best, the German is barely a match for the top players and at the moment, he's way off that. Tsonga is coming back to the top of his game and just looks like being too strong today. There's always a risk Tsonga will do something daft, but I'll take that risk tonight. Radwanska, Schnyder & Ivanovic treble @3.2 - Coral I fancy Radwanska to be too good for Krumm, even with question marks over the Pole's foot. She's seeded 12th here, while Klumm has only won one of her last 7 Grand Slam first round matches. That too me is too big a gap to be bridged by a lack of fitness. Besides, 40-year-old Krumm hardly looked sharp when losing to Kerber (who went out in round 1) and Bondarenko. Adding in Ivanovic, who I expect big things from this year. She sounds like she has things back together again and her form at the end of the year was excellent. Makarova tends to get beat when she plays against those better than her and former number one Ivanovic is definitely that. The Serb won in straight sets at the US Open and I think something similar tonight. Finally, Schnyder was to me, a no brainer against the qualifier Tsurenko, who came through qualifying, but has played 2 top 100 players in the last 2 months and lost to both (Bondarenko and Garrigues). One of the posters above me made a case for Tsurenko though and has me slightly worried.... Schwank, Ebden, Dolgopolov treble @4.3 - Coral This is a risky one, but I placed the bets at a local bookie, so it's more about interest at the moment and I couldn't decide which of the first two I liked better. Schwank, as someone said, has been playing poorly, but he's lost to decent players, whereas everyone beats Mayer at the moment. I think Schwank has enough about him to take what could be an ugly match. Matthew Ebden should give Australia at least one player in round two. The 23-year-old played really well last week and is a decent challenger player, who hasn't quite done as well as he maybe should have. Michael Russell is simply too old for me and he's on his way out. He retired against Harrison last week and I just don't think he'll handle best of 5 against a hungry player cheered on by a full house in Melbourne. Dolgopolov should simply be too good for Kukushin. The Ukrainian is in good form and his last five losses have been to Federer, Baghdatis, Simon, Roddick and Tursunov. Only the latter is a bad result. Kukushkin has been losing in qualifiers to challengers recently and he lost twice to Dolgopolov last year, so won't exactly go into the game confident of winning. :hope
Awful. The Tsonga one hurts, because it was so badly wrong at such a poor price. Live and learn I guess. Mens treble was close - Ebden would have won the match if he'd taken the 4th set. Women's treble was simply hopeless - Ivanovic and Schnyder lost and Radwanska was hardly a good pick, given how she played. Will come back with some more tonight, but not a good start.
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CzechPunter

CzechPunter

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) This is quite tough. Money-wise, the event is not bad by any means, I am still managing a tiny profit from my bets. However, I have never felt so gutted as I am feeling now. If I look at it from a distance, I cannot see what I have done wrong. Kamke was trading at about 1.15 when he had the break balls in the third. Date Krumm was about the same when she was *4-1 up and Radwanska took a medical timeout. Hewitt was a little bit below 1.2 when he had the break balls (or shall I say match balls) to go double break up in the fourth. So frustrating. On one hand, I am finding the value bets and I do not want to quit the events, because I really think I am not doing anything wrong. On the other hand, the prospect of facing another such match is hardly appealing. I am probably slightly off-topic, but what would you do guys? Perhaps you disagree with me - maybe I am doing something wrong, but I really do not know what. So tell me.

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captaincool

captaincool

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January)

This is quite tough. Money-wise, the event is not bad by any means, I am still managing a tiny profit from my bets. However, I have never felt so gutted as I am feeling now. If I look at it from a distance, I cannot see what I have done wrong. Kamke was trading at about 1.15 when he had the break balls in the third. Date Krumm was about the same when she was *4-1 up and Radwanska took a medical timeout. Hewitt was a little bit below 1.2 when he had the break balls (or shall I say match balls) to go double break up in the fourth. So frustrating. On one hand, I am finding the value bets and I do not want to quit the events, because I really think I am not doing anything wrong. On the other hand, the prospect of facing another such match is hardly appealing. I am probably slightly off-topic, but what would you do guys? Perhaps you disagree with me - maybe I am doing something wrong, but I really do not know what. So tell me.
I wouldn't get too bothered by it. Those are only three matches, everyone gets unlucky sometimes. You do also have to remember that one of the reasons these players are looking like value underdogs to you is because: A - They are capable of playing well B - Their opponents are capable of not turning up/making mistakes The same is, therefore, true of their opponents, who are, inevitably, higher ranked players and, theoretically, not as inclined to those mistakes/more able to win crucial points. I'm not trying to be down on your picks, they have been great so far, as have everyone else's here (bar mine!) but I think you need to have a little perspective and not get carried away with three bets just hitting the net cord (as it were). Alternatively, post the three games you fancy upsets in tonight and we can all take the overs and handicaps? ;)
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CzechPunter

CzechPunter

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Re: Tennis - The Australian Open (17-30 January) Thanks for the kind words. I am not the person that goes "f**k Date, f**k Kamke, everyone is a cheat" whenever a thing goes wrong. I am sure that they have tried their best too and that they are pretty frustrated as well, no question about that. Meanwhile, Hewitt has not converted two match points. Ah well, I guess I will pick some upsets tonight. Just remember to go for the handicap, not the outright :D.

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