Two banks - *CLOSED* - Total profit 693.18pts (434.9pts plus 258.28pts banked)

[skylark2009]

[twinny]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +502.19pts excellent stuff skylark:dude keep it up:hope

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +502.19pts

excellent stuff skylark:dude keep it up:hope

Thanks Twinny, hope to keep the winners coming. Two bets again today.

#69 3.30 Southwell: Sir Louis - all stakes 45.2pts @ 13/8 Bet365 - assessed probability 25% to 33% #70 4.30 Southwell: Double Duchess - all stakes 45.8pts @ 13/8 Bet365 - assessed probability 33% to 50%

The first is Sir Louis in the 3.30 at Southwell, I've put this in the 25% to 33% bracket with variable points of 14.8. He has conditions to suit today and could still be on the upgrade. Won his last two races here over today's distance. Price 13/8 The second is Double Duchess in the 4.30 at Southwell, a previous losing qualifier for this GH. Gets another chance today. This one is in the 33% to 50% group and is awarded 15.4pts in the variable bank. She has won over course and distance twice previously and the trainer has had 5 wins from his last 20 here at Southwell. price 13/8 Some near misses - These just miss out falling into the 25% to 33% bracket. Carnac in the first at Southwell is unpenalised for his win in an apprentice handicap, also has 5lb's taken off by his claimer. Ingleby Arch and Bonnie Prince Blue (a potential dutched bet) in the 3.00 Southwell, both miss the 25% to 33% group. Ingleby Arch is a seven time course/distance winner and has conditions to suit. Bonnie Prince Blue is a three time course/distance winner, beat Punching (also in this race) last time out who went on to win next time out.

[skylark2009]

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +411.19pts Three bets today, including one incredibly short price. Gibb River's current price of 2/11 means the market assesses this horses chance at around 85%. Looking back over the last 10 years SP's, there have been approx 300 horses that have returned SP's of 2/11 or shorter and 280 of these won their race giving a strike rate of approx 90% (a possible 5% edge). Looks to be plenty of place value here as the next best prices are 20/1. Fredo has been 2nd on each of his last four outings and may be able to get his nose in front today. Frequency won yesterday and could be well treated as a result in this claimer today.

#71 3.20 Wincanton: Gibb River - all stakes 62pts @ 2/11 VCbet (BOG) and Boylesports (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #72 4.10 Towcester: Fredo - all stakes 43pts @ 5/4 W Hill (BOG) and VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #73 5.30 Wolverhampton: Frequency - all stakes 48.7pts @ 1/1 Bet365 (BOG) and Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probaility 50%+

[skylark2009]

[twinny]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +524.91pts

Three out of three today. :ok nice one again skylark:cheers

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +524.91pts Four for today, any two winning would realise a profit.

#74 2.50 Lingfield: Black Baccara - all stakes 38.3pts @ 10/3 Stan James - assessed probability 25% to 33% #75 4.00 Lingfield: Better Self - all stakes 40.8pts @ 5/2 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #76 4.15 Chepstow: Massini Sunset - all stakes 38.3pts @ 10/3 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probabiltiy 25% to 33% #77 5.30 Wolverhampton: Princess Gail - all stakes 52.9pts @ 1/1 Stan James - assessed probability 50%+

[skylark2009]

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +354.61pts Just the one bet today.

#78 3.25 Lingfield: Lovers Causeway - all stakes 35.7pts @ 9/4 Coral (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33%

[skylark2009]

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +318.91pts One bet for tomorrow. In the 3.30 at Wolverhampton Orpenindeed is running. He has conditions to suit and has 11lbs in hand of his nearest rival (The Big Hearth). He's won his last two races here at Wolverhampton (both at 6F), but has previously won over 7F here. I rate this as a 50%+ chance of winning and expect him to start odds on, so he will have 32.3pts awarded using the variable stakes table.

#79 3.30 Wolverhampton: Orpenindeed - all stakes 58.1pts @ best odds achievable or SP - assessed probability 50%+

[skylark2009]

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +260.81pts One today.

#80 6.10 Kempton: Fastinthestraight - all stakes 37.4pts @ 5/4 Coral (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50%

Some near misses. Just miss the 25% to 33% bracket. Mandy's Hero just misses out, Hinton Admiral and Lastkingofscotland (form of last race franked today when The Happy Hammer won earlier at Lingfield). Kuala Limper just fails.

[skylark2009]

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +307.56pts Three bets in early races plus one possible in a later race at Kempton. Of the three early bets, two are running in the same race and will be dutched for equal profits with banks two, three and four (bank one points awarded as normal). The dutched points have been assessed using current Betfair prices as there are no other bookies offering prices at the time of posting. The dutched horses are Rosewood Lad (assessed price of 2/1) and Mush Mir (assessed price of 4/1) in the 2.50 at Southwell. The later potential bet (Layla's Dancer in the 6.10 Kempton) has a chance of becoming a non runner as he is running again only one day after winning at Lingfield. I'll confirm this one tomorrow.

#81 2.10 Huntingdon: Silver Dollars - all stakes 31.2pts @ 9/2 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #82 2.50 Southwell: Rosewood Lad - all stakes 42.2pts @ best odds achievable or SP - assessed probability 33% to 50% - dutched with bet #83 #83 2.50 Southwell Mush Mir - all stakes @ 24.7pts @ best odds achievable or SP - assessed probability 25% to 33% - dutched with bet #82

[skylark2009]

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +320.61pts Three for tomorrow. The variable points have been awarded by using the current Betfair prices available to give an assessed price. Marodima in the 1.30 Kempton won last time out, carrying a 7lb penalty which is reduced to only 2lbs by his 5lb claiming jockey. Has won over today's distance 10 times and has notched up two successive wins on several occasions. Expected price of around 7/2. Assessed probability of 25% to 33%. In the 1.45 Southwell, Verrazano is a course/distance winner last time out. Trainer is in good form, 6 wins from his last 20 runners and also 6 wins from his last 20 runners at Southwell. Jockey/trainer combo is 7 wins from their last 20 and 6 wins from their last 20 at Southwell. Expected price of less than 2/1. Assessed probability of 33% to 50%. In the last race at Wolverhampton, On The Cusp is engaged to run again after winning at Southwell the previous day. Could run well again in this class 7 handicap. Expected price of bigger than 5/1. Assessed probability of 25% to 33%.

#84 1.30 Kempton: Marodima - all stakes 32.8pts @ best odds achievable or SP - assessed probability 25% to 33% #85 1.45 Southwell: Verrazano - all stakes 39.1pts @ best odds achievable or SP - assessed probability 33% to 50% #86 8.10 Wolverhampton: On The Cusp - all stakes 29.7pts @ best achievable odds or SP - assessed probability 25% to 33%

[skylark2009]

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +248.71pts Six bets today.

#86 1.20 Newbury: Al Ferof - all stakes 36.3pts @ 1/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probablity 33% to 50% #87 1.30 Lingfield: A Little Bit Dusty - all stakes 41.8pts @ 6/4 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #88 1.50 Ayr: Yes Tom - all stakes 47.6pts @ 4/5 bET365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #89 2.45 Leopardstown: Zaidpour - all stakes 36.3pts @ 6/5 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #90 3.15 Leopardstown: Joncol - all stakes 32.7pts @ 13/8 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #91 7.50 Wolverhampton: Bentley - all stakes 27.4pts @ 13/2 Stan James - assessed probability 25% to 33%

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +248.71pts

Six bets today.

#86 1.20 Newbury: Al Ferof - all stakes 36.3pts @ 1/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probablity 33% to 50% #87 1.30 Lingfield: A Little Bit Dusty - all stakes 41.8pts @ 6/4 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #88 1.50 Ayr: Yes Tom - all stakes 47.6pts @ 4/5 bET365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #89 2.45 Leopardstown: Zaidpour - all stakes 36.3pts @ 6/5 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #90 3.15 Leopardstown: Joncol -

all stakes 36pts

@ 13/8 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #91 7.50 Wolverhampton: Bentley - all stakes 27.4pts @ 13/2 Stan James - assessed probability 25% to 33%

Correction to the Joncol bet, it should be 36pts @ 13/8 not 32.7pts as in the previous post. (Made a typo in the level stakes cell in the spreadsheet)

[League1_punter]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +248.71pts :clap Good start with the biggy winning! Sad scenes at Newbury

[skylark2009]

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +275.20pts Two bets today.

#92 4.20 Catterick: Heavenly Chorus - all stakes 29.5pts @ 4/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #93 5.10 Wolverhampton: Elvira Delight - all stakes 43.1pts @ 7/4 Coral (BOG) - assessed probabilty 50%+

Heavenly Chorus just scrapes in as a 25% chance with Double Vodka rated at around 23%. Heavenly Chorus has conditions to suit today but is currently drifting in the market while Double Vodka looks to be coming into form. Elvira Delight was rated initially at around 63% but reduced to 53% as a result of the obvious danger Lexi's Boy. She should go well today and looks progressive while Lexi's Boy could have a little bit more in hand than the winning margin in his last race suggests. Some near misses. In the 2.40 Wolverhampton Frequency (around a 23% chance to win) is looking to win for a third successive time. He has Apache Ridge held on previous form on the weights today. Restless bay in this race looks to be the best at todays weights with an OR of 68 and carrying 8-7 today. While Frequency may struggle to win today, he could be capable of running into a place. Black Coffee and Elijah Pepper both miss out in what looks like a competitive handicap in the 4.10 Wolverhampton. A fair few closely rated horses in this race, with three last time out winners (Star Links now a non runner) and two 2nds last time out head the market. Black Coffee looks to be progressive with three previous wins over this course and distance while Elijah Pepper is consistent of late and has two course/distance wins.

[skylark2009]

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +202.6pts Four today (bets placed at around 10.00am)

#94 3.50 Southwell: Mush Mir - all stakes 33.5pts @ 6/4 vcBET (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #95 4.20 Southwell: Ridgeway Hawk - all stakes 27.8pts @ 7/2 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #96 4.50 Southwell: Home - all stakes 51.1pts @ 4/6 BetFred (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #97 5.00 Folkestone: Dantes Storm - all stakes 45.1pts @ 4/5 Stan James - assessed probability 33% to 50%

[skylark2009]

[twinny]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +210.03pts profit is profit m8,keep up the good work skylark:hope

[skylark2009]

Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +210.03pts Three bets for today.

#98 1.50 Musselburgh: Blenheim Brook - all stakes 51.7pts @ 4/9 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #99 2.10 Leicester: Phar Again - all stakes 28.3pts @ 10/3 BetFred (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #100 4.10 Leicester: What Of It - all stakes 34.4pts @ 5/4 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50%

[skylark2009]