skylark2009 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Re: Four banks Late with these today, but three bets today. #33 4.10 Wolverhampton Kheley - stakes 7.9pts 5.5pts 13.6pts 6.4pts @ 11/4 Corals (BOG) and VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #34 4.40 Wolverhampton Itsthursdayalready - stakes 7.9pts 5.5pts 13.6pts 6.4pts @ 5/2 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #35 7.10 Wolverhampton French Hollow - stakes 11.8pts 5.5pts 13.6pts 6.4pts @ 5/4 Skybet and Stan James - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Four banks Two bets for today. The first is A Media Luz in the first at Kempton, This one goes against my normal method of 'last time out winner' picks. A Media Luz was 2nd last time out and reading through her form have put her in the 33% to 50% probability bracket.The 3rd in her last race (Mark Twain beaten by 22L) has gone on to win next time out. Her trainer is firing at the moment and currently and has had 7 winners and 7 places from his last 20 runners, and 9 winners and 4 places from his last 20 runners here at Kempton. The second bet is on Edgeworth in the first at Lingfield and won last time out. Assessed probability of 25% to 33%. Could put in a decent effort here, returning to a handicap after running creditably in claimers previously. NB. I see this more as an E/W or place bet. #36 11.50 Kempton A Media Luz - stakes 9.3pts 5.5pts 12.9pts 6.3pts @ 2/1 Bet365 (BOG) #37 12.45 Lingfield Edgeworth - stakes 3.4pts 5.5pts 12.9pts 6.3pts @ 11/2 Stan James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: Four banks Only one bet today. In the 3.20 at Wolverhampton Rhythm Stick runs after a 31 day rest, Franny Norton on board again after winning on him on his two prevoius runs. Rhythm Stick beat Dontpaytheferryman in his last race and Dontpaytheferryman then went on to win his next three races on the bounce (Dontpaytheferryman put up twice for this GH, winnng twice). I've put Rhythm Stick in the 33% to 50% bracket giving him 12.2pts on the variable stakes. Some near misses, Manmoon (7th and 1st next two races), Flying Squad (1st and 1st next two races) and Lukie Victor (1st next race) just miss out on SP stipulations and going conditions, they ran against each other in the backend of Nov 2010 coming first, second and third in that race. All are running again today in different races over the sticks. It would be interesting to see if the form of that race pans out again today. #38 3.20 Wolverhampton Rhythm Stick - stakes 12.2pts 5.5pts 10.9pts 6.1pts @ 11/8 Corals (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Re: Four banks Two bets for today. #39 3.25 Newcastle Do It For Dalkey - stakes 12.1pts 5.5pts 12.6pts 6.3pts @ 15/8 Stan James and VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #40 3.40 Lingfield Memorabilia - stakes 13pts 5.5pts 12.6pts 6.3pts @ 15/8 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Re: Four banks Two bets today and both are at very short odds today. Orpenindeed's price at the time of posting is around 2/5 at best (converted to a probability, bookies rate this as a 71.5% of winning), Munsef's best price is 8/15 with Coral (rated as a 65% chance of winning). I've assessed both as 50%+ and both have 30.6pts awarded with the variable stakes bank. Both will need to win today to realise a profit, as only one winner could produce a loss of up to 34pts or lose 112pts if both lose from the overall profits to date. Two to watch - Not part of this GH, but Kingsfort and Aspectoflove are running over in Dubai at Meydan racecourse. Both are capable horses and could run into the places or even win (but this is just my opinion of course. :tongue2). #41 4.50 Wolverhampton Orpenindeed - stakes 30.6pts 5.5pts 13.3pts 6.4pts @ 2/5 Bet365 (BOG) #42 5.50 Wolverhampton Munsef - stakes 30.6pts 5.5pts 13.3pts 6.4pts @ 8/15 Coral (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: Four banks One bet only today. #43 5.05 Wolverhampton Juarla - stakes 12.8pts 5.5pts 12.8pts 6.4pts @ 11/8 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Four banks Three bets today. Two odds on shots and one at 7/2. Hopefully one or two could win pushing this GH forward again. #44 2.25 Ascot Master Minded - stakes 28.1pts 5.5pts 11.8pts 6.2pts @ 4/5 VCbet (BOG) and W Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #45 2.35 Lingfield Insolenceofoffice - stakes 28.1pts 5.5pts 11.8pts 6.2pts @ 4/6 Paddy power (BOG) and VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #46 3.40 Lingfield Anne Of Kiev - stakes 5.8pts 5.5pts 11.8pts 6.2pts @ 7/2 Coral (BOG) and Boylesport (BOG)- assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: Four banks Three bets again today. The first is Realt Dubh in the 1.45 Leopardstown. I've rated this as a 25% to 33% chance and the current price means it is awarded 8.1pts on the variable stakes. I rate Flat Out in the same race as the danger here, but Realt Dubh gets the nod as a consequence of his course/distance win. I'm half tempted here to place a saver bet on Flat Out of 15pts @ 5/2, which would cover all losses from all banks if Flat Out wins (this isn't part of this GH though). The second is a soft option really. Hurricane Fly in the 2.45 Leopardstown is a very capable horse and should dominate this race. The 1/2 on offer with a number of bookmakers means they rate him as a 66% chance, but given what he has achieved to date I would rate him higher. Assessed probabilty 50%+ The last bet is Better Self in the 3.15 at Kempton, given the official ratings may have 1lb in hand of So Is She. Assessed probability of 33% to 50%. #47 1.45 Leopardstown Realt Dubh - stakes 8.1pts 5.5pts 15pts 6.8pts @ 5/2 Bet365 (BOG) #48 2.45 Leopardstown Hurricane Fly - stakes 29.7pts 5.5pts 15pts 6.8pts @ 1/2 Paddy Power (BOG) and Bet 365 (BOG) #49 3.15 Kempton Better Self - stakes 13pts 5.5pts 15pts 6.8pts @ 11/10 Boylesports (BOG) and W Hill (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: Four banks Overall profit/loss for all banks stands at +494.65pts with a yield of 28.73%. :loon Pretty insane... nice one :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Re: Four banks Pretty insane... nice one :clap It is pretty mad so far thanks Aldric. :ok Missed two yesterday and another again today due to work, but I will be able to put one up in the 4.20 at Southwell. #50 4.20 Southwell West Leake Melody - stakes 13.9pts 5.5pts 18pts 7.4pts @ 6/4 Coral (BOG) and Paddy Power (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Re: Four banks Just one today. #51 7.05 Kempton Stirling Bridge - stakes 14.5.pts 5.5pts 17.3pts 7.3pts @ 6/4 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Re: Four banks Three qualifiers in races while I'll be at work today. No prices available so I'll use Betfair prices as a guide to determine the variable stakes. #52 1.30 Lingfield Chevise - stakes 31.7 5.5pts 16.5pts 7.1pts @ SP or best price achievable - assessed probability 50%+, odds very likely to be less then 1/1. #53 1.50 Doncaster Andhaar - stakes 8.7pts 5.5pts 16.5pts 7.1pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probability 25% to 33%, odds likely to be 2/1 to 3/1. #54 2.15 Lingfield Aquilifer - stakes 8.7pts 5.5pts 16.5pts 7.1pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probability 25% to 33%, odds likely to be 2/1 to 3/1. Some near misses in early races - King Benny - should go well but may be seen to better effect over further than todays distance. I Confess and Silver Guest - both miss out on price stipulations. Douglas Julian - not proven over today's distance, has won on heavy though which should help today. It looks likely that there will be one or more qualifiers in the later races at Wolverhampton, but I should be home by then and be able to post sometime after 2pm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Re: Four banks Update to previous post. Prices taken for bets 52 to 54 Bet #52 Chevise - 2/5 with Skybet Bet #53 Andhaar - 11/4 with Skybet Bet #54 Aquilifer - 9/4 with Skybet A further two qualifiers at Wolverhampton. #55 6.10 Wolverhampton Sloop Johnb - stakes 12.9pts 5.5pts 16.5pts 7.1pts @ 5/4 Coral (BOG) and VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #56 7.10 Wolverhampton Radiator Rooney - stakes 6.5pts 5.5pts 16.5pts 7.1pts @ 7/2 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Four banks Five bets today (placed early so prices may have changed). Local Hero in the first at Cheltenham is a 25% to 33% chance. He's won his last two races and looks a progressive type with conditions to suit today. He has A P McCoy riding again, who has had 6 wins and 4 placed from his last 20 rides. The dangers are Akula and Maoi Chinn Tire, who could both cause an upset here. Price 2/1 Buaiteoir in the 1.25 Lingfield is a 14pt bet using variable stakes (assessed probability 25% to 33%). I also rate him as a 60%+ chance of running into a place. The dangers are the next three in the betting, Kilburn, Blue Moon and Kiss A Prince. Kilburn won last time out, but may find his HR rating too much today. Blue Moon and Kiss A prince are both dropping in the ratings and are both only 4lbs higher than their last winning ratings. Price 7/4 As a side note to the Buaiteoir bet - Wilfred Pickles is running in the first race at Lingfield, 4th behind Buaiteoir last time out beaten by 1½ lengths. The form of that race should be franked if Wilfred Pickles wins his race. I would have put this one up as a bet also, except that it would have been awarded 0 points in the variable stakes as I would rate this as a 25% to 33% chance of winning. Kingscroft in the 1.55 Lingfield is rated as a 50%+ chance of winning and should definately run into a place today. Of the other last time out winners, Rylee Mooch or Imogen Louise may prove to be the biggest threats. Rylee Mooch won here yesterday but could possibly be held by his penalty (claimer takes 3lbs off this) and is also up in class. Imogen Louise beat a previous selection for this GH (Insolenceofoffice) and is also up in class today. Price 4/5 In the 3.05 at Cheltenham there are two bets, Backspin and Bob's Worth are both rated at 25% to 33%. The variable stakes bank (given the current prices available) will produce a near natural 'dutched' bet, but I think it is best to 'dutch' the points for banks two, three and four for equal profits if either won. Missed the 2/1 - 15/8 price on Backspin, got 7/4. Bob's Worth price 9/2, the points for banks two, three and four have been dutched with these two prices. #57 12.55 Cheltenham Local Hero - stakes 9.4pts 5.5pts 17.7pts 7.1pts @ 2/1 Stan James #58 1.25 Lingfield Buaiteoir - stakes 14pts 5.5pts 17.7pts 7.1pts @ 7/4 VCbet (BOG) and W Hill (BOG) #59 1.55 Lingfield Kingscroft - stakes 34.2pts 5.5pts 17.7pts 7.1pts @ 4/5 Bet365 (BOG) #60 3.05 Cheltenham Backspin - stakes 14pts 7.3pts 23.6pts 9.9pts @ 7/4 Bet365 (BOG) - NB This bet and bet #61 are a dutched bet #61 3.05 Cheltenham Bob's Worth - stakes 6.1pts 3.7pts 11.8pts 4.9pts @ 9/2 Paddy Power (BOG) - NB This bet and bet #60 are a dutched bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Four banks Five bets again today (including another dutched bet). Bets placed around 10am, so prices may well be different. #62 1.50 Punchestown Big Zeb - stakes 37.7pts 5.5pts 19.9pts 7.9pts @ 4/5 W Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #63 2.35 Hereford Williams Wishes - stakes 37.7pts 5.5pts 19.9pts 7.9pts @ 4/11 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #64 2.45 Kempton Mr Optimistic - stakes 10.3pts 5.5pts 19.9pts 7.9pts @ 9/4 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% - dutched with bet #65 #65 2.45 Kempton Morermaloke - stakes 10.3pts 5.5pts 19.9pts 7.9pts @ 9/4 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% - dutched with bet #64 #66 2.55 Fakenham Ray Mond - stakes 10.3pts 5.5pts 19.9pts 7.9pts @ 5/2 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +473.63pts Two bets today. #67 3.15 Wolverhampton: Memorabilia - all stakes 56.8pts @ 5/6 Bet365 (BOG) and VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #68 4.20 Wolverhampton: Broughtons Day - all stakes 39.6pts @ 5/2 Bet365 (BOG) and Coral (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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