skylark2009 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +247.71pts Seven selections today including 1 dutched bet (ie variable stakes remain the same, level stakes, sqrt stakes and % stakes points dutched) and two very short prices. Bets placed around 10.30am. On the dutched bet Jack's Revenge has previously beaten Ace Master and is weighted today to probably confirm placings again, but Ace Master won well two days ago and could be on the upgrade. #101 1.50 Southwell: Jack's Revenge - all stakes 49.3pts @ 6/4 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ - dutched with bet #102 #102 1.50 Southwell: Ace Master - all stakes 23.3pts @ 4/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% - dutched with bet #101 #103 3.40 Ffos Las: Kerada - all stakes 54.3pts at 4/9 W Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #104 3.50 Kelso: Peddlers Cross: all stakes @ 2/11 Skybet - assessed probability 50%+ #105 4.25 Southwell: Steed - all stakes 36.4pts @ 6/4 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #106 5.05 Southwell: Almahaza - all stakes 35.3pts @ 11/10 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #107 7.30 Wolverhampton: Kingscroft - all stakes 36.4pts @ 9/4 Stan James - assessed probability 33% to 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 17, 2011 Author Share Posted February 17, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +247.71pts Seven selections today including 1 dutched bet (ie variable stakes remain the same, level stakes, sqrt stakes and % stakes points dutched) and two very short prices. Bets placed around 10.30am. On the dutched bet Jack's Revenge has previously beaten Ace Master and is weighted today to probably confirm placings again, but Ace Master won well two days ago and could be on the upgrade. #101 1.50 Southwell: Jack's Revenge - all stakes 49.3pts @ 6/4 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ - dutched with bet #102 #102 1.50 Southwell: Ace Master - all stakes 23.3pts @ 4/1 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% - dutched with bet #101 #103 3.40 Ffos Las: Kerada - all stakes 54.3pts at 4/9 W Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #104 3.50 Kelso: Peddlers Cross: all stakes 54.3pts @ 2/11 Skybet - assessed probability 50%+ #105 4.25 Southwell: Steed - all stakes 36.4pts @ 6/4 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #106 5.05 Southwell: Almahaza - all stakes 35.3pts @ 11/10 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #107 7.30 Wolverhampton: Kingscroft - all stakes 36.4pts @ 9/4 Stan James - assessed probability 33% to 50% Peddlers Cross bet is for 54.3pts @ 2/11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +266.14pts Four bets today (all shorties). #108 3.00 Newbury: Aiteen Thirtythree - all stakes 48.2pts @ 5/6 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #109 3.55 Sandown: Megastar - all stakes 55.6pts @ 8/15 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #110 4.15 Fakenham: Massini Man - all stakes 48.2pts @ 10/11 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #111 5.10 Lingfield: Aquilifer - 37.1pts @ 1/1 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 18, 2011 Author Share Posted February 18, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +270.28pts Seven bets today. #112 1.40 Haydock: Local Hero - 31.7pts @ 5/2 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #113 2.10 Haydock: Court In Motion - 48.5pts @ 4/5 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #114 2.45 Haydock: Any Given Day - 31.7pts @ 9/4 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #115 3.00 Ascot: Riverside Theatre - 37.2pts @ 7/4 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #116 4.05 Ascot: Sprinter Sacre - 55.9pts @ 4/7 Coral (BOG) and VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #117 5.05 Haydock: Baby Run - 55.9pts @ 8/13 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #118 5.20 Wincanton: Smad Place - 55.9pts @ 1/4 W Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 19, 2011 Author Share Posted February 19, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +303.8pts Four bets today. #119 2.20 Kempton: Chevise - all stakes 58.4PTS @ 8/13 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #120 3.05 Naas: Golden Silver - all stakes 58.4pts @ 1/6 Stan James - assessed probability 50%+ #121 4.10 Naas: Roi Du Mee - all stakes 38.4pts @ 6/4 Coral (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #122 5.10 Naas: Mississippi River - all stakes 38.4pts @ 7/4 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 20, 2011 Author Share Posted February 20, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +368.67pts In work early tomorrow, so I'll put these up tonight. The variable points will be awarded using current Betfair prices and the bets placed tomorrow at either SP or best odds achievable. 3.20 Hereford. Difficult one to call. I see it being between Listenlook, Wigmore Hall and Simply Wings. Simply Wings has a 7lb advantage against Listenlook and Wigmore Hall, who both carry 7lbs extra as a result of previous winning hurdle form. Simply Wings ran well last time out while carrying topweight to come second to The Gripper who was carrying 22lbs less. Listenlook won last time out at Chepstow and looks capable of improving on that run, he also has shown consistent form in point to points over in Ireland last year. Wigmore Hall is a course/distance winner but struggled last time out in a 3M hurdle race at Cheltenham (maybe a combintion of course and extra distance found him out?), however the form of the horses coming out of his last race looks good with two winning next time out, two coming second next time out and a further two winning on their second run after the race. With A P McCoy aboard and a return to 2M 6F I'll put up Wigmore Hall as a tentative 25% chance with Listenlook and Simply Wings as 24% or 23% chances. Expected price of between 2/1 and 3/1. 3.50 Hereford Royal Chatelier is the only course and distance winner in the field and isn't carrying any penalty as a result of his win here last time out. The jockey is also taking a further 3lb off today. None of the other horses in the field really stand out and the 2/1 for Royal Chatelier available on Betfair looks fair. Assessed probability of 33% to 50%. Expected price of between 1/1 and 2/1. 5.20 Hereford Decent Lord is the standout horse here, winner of his last start and also a course/distance winner on his penultimate start. Acts on the going and looks to have conditions to suit. The dangers are Galantos and Seasonselite. Assessed probability of 33% to 50%. Expected price of less than 1/1. Some near misses. Bright Sparky (won three days ago over course and distance) in the 3.00 Wolverhampton misses out primarily because this race looks scrappy, these amateur races can be hit or miss affairs. Erinjay in the 4.00 Wolverhampton looks to have conditions in his favour, but again this looks lika a muddling race. His form is best at kempton and he has yet to prove himself here at Wolverhampton. Hawaass has the best official rating in the race and I Confess won three days ago could also cause an upset. #123 3.20 Hereford: Wigmore Hall - 34.6pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probabilty 25% to 33% - expected price of between 2/1 and 3/1 #124 3.50 Hereford: Royal Chatelier - 41.3pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probability 33% to 50% - expected price of between 1/1 to 2/1 #125 5.20 Hereford: Decent Lord - 53.7pts at SP or best odds achievable - assessed probability 33% to 50% - expected price of less than 1/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +368.67pts #123 3.20 Hereford: Wigmore Hall - 34.6pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probabilty 25% to 33% - expected price of between 2/1 and 3/1 #124 3.50 Hereford: Royal Chatelier - 41.3pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probability 33% to 50% - expected price of between 1/1 to 2/1 #125 5.20 Hereford: Decent Lord - 53.7pts at SP or best odds achievable - assessed probability 33% to 50% - expected price of less than 1/1 Bets placed around 9.30am #123 Wigmore Hall @ 11/4 Bet365 (BOG) #124 Royal Chatelier @ 2/1 Bet365 (BOG) #125 Decent Lord @ 1/1 Paddy Power (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +368.67pts 3.20 Hereford. Difficult one to call. I see it being between Listenlook, Wigmore Hall and Simply Wings. Simply Wings has a 7lb advantage against Listenlook and Wigmore Hall, who both carry 7lbs extra as a result of previous winning hurdle form. Simply Wings ran well last time out while carrying topweight to come second to The Gripper who was carrying 22lbs less. Listenlook won last time out at Chepstow and looks capable of improving on that run, he also has shown consistent form in point to points over in Ireland last year. Wigmore Hall is a course/distance winner but struggled last time out in a 3M hurdle race at Cheltenham (maybe a combintion of course and extra distance found him out?), however the form of the horses coming out of his last race looks good with two winning next time out, two coming second next time out and a further two winning on their second run after the race. With A P McCoy aboard and a return to 2M 6F I'll put up Wigmore Hall as a tentative 25% chance with Listenlook and Simply Wings as 24% or 23% chances. Expected price of between 2/1 and 3/1. #123 3.20 Hereford: Wigmore Hall - 34.6pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probabilty 25% to 33% - expected price of between 2/1 and 3/1 I've just noticed this, I've put Wigmore Hall when it should actually be Old Wigmore. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +346.47pts Six bets tomorrow, with the exception of the last bet they will be placed tomorrow at SP or best odds achievable. #126 1.50 Southwell: La Estrella - all stakes 61.7pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probability 50%+ - expected price of less than 1/1 #127 2.00 Taunton: Qozak - all stakes 61.7pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probability 50%+ - expected price of less than 1/1 #128 2.30 Taunton: Dark Lover - all stakes 52.8pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probability 33% to 50% - expected price of less than 1/1 #129 3.25 Southwell: Reachforthebucks - all stakes 61.7pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probability 50%+ - expected price of less than 1/1 #130 4.15 Taunton: Just Amazing - all stakes 52.8pts @ SP or best odds achievable - assessed probability 33% to 50% - expected price of less than 1/1 #131 4.35 Southwell: Stanley Rigby - all stakes 40.4pts @ 6/4 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +346.47pts Prices taken La Estrella @ 4/6 Skybet Qozak @ 4/7 Skybet Dark Lover @ 4/6 Skybet Reachforthebucks @ 2/7 Bet365 (BOG) Just Amazing @ 8/13 Stan James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +492.03pts Only two bets for today (a third, Christmas Aria is now a non runner) #132 5.25 Ludlow: Swingkeel - all stakes 52.8pts @ 4/5 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #133 7.35 Kempton: Songjiang - all stakes 52.8pts @ 13/8 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +525.03pts Six bets today. #134 3.35 Huntingdon: Minella Class - all stakes 61.7pts @ 8/11 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #135 3.45 Southwell: Honkers Bonkers - all stakes 46.9pts @ 6/4 Coral (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #136 4.10 Huntingdon: Honourable Arthur - all stakes 32.2pts @ 4/1 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #137 4.40 Huntingdon: Decent Lord - all stakes 40.6pts @ 11/8 Skybet - assessed probability 33% to 50% #138 5.35 Meydan: Mahbooba - all stakes 61.7pts @ 2/5 Padd Power (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #139 8.40 Kempton: Reachforthebucks - all stakes 72.2pts @ 1/3 VCbet (BOG)- assessed probability 50%+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 25, 2011 Author Share Posted February 25, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +454.11pts Just two bets today #140 3.15 Warwick: Basford Bob - all stakes 33.9pts @ 1/1 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #141 3.40 Lingfield: Malice Or Mischief - all stakes 47pts @ 4/5 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +454.11pts Four bets today. #142 2.25 Kempton: Captain Chris - all stakes 47.50pts @ 4/9 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #143 2.45 Newcastle: Battle Group - all stakes 26.1pts @ 5/1 Bluesquare - assessed probability 25% to 33% #144 3.35 Kempton: Sire De Grugy - all stakes 28.3pts @ 7/2 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #145 3.50 Newcastle: Bollin Felix - all stakes 47.5pts @ 5/6 Bet365 (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +748.06pts fantastic stuff skylark:dude,i hope you had a few little multi,s away from this thread Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +748.06pts fantastic stuff skylark:dude' date='i hope you had a few little multi,s away from this thread[/quote'] Thanks Twinny. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted February 26, 2011 Share Posted February 26, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +748.06pts Awesome results, well done mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 26, 2011 Author Share Posted February 26, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +748.06pts Awesome results' date=' well done mate :ok[/quote'] Thanks Aldric. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +748.06pts I missed a R4 of 15p in the £ on the Bollin Felix bet yesterday (bet #145) which will be applied in todays results. It reduced the total profit yesterday by 6pts. NB points have been awarded for today's bets using the tables in yesterday's results post. Onto today's bets, four in total, one of which is a dutched bet. As with previous dutched bets, the variable stakes remain unaltered with the stakes for banks two, three and four being dutched. If only the two shorties win then a small loss will be realised, so today's bets rely upon any one of the two dutched horses winning to show a profit. #146 2.30 Towcester: Whoops A Daisy - all stakes 56.9pts @ 11/10 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ #147 3.45 Fontwell: Celestial Halo - all stakes 44.4pts @ 13/8 Coral (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% - dutched with bet #148 #148 3.45 Fontwell: Karabak - all stakes 31.5pts @ 5/2 Paddy Power (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% - dutched with bet #147 #149 4.55 Leopardstown: Waheeb - all stakes 56.9pts @ 1/3 W Hill (BOG) - assessed probability 50%+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 27, 2011 Author Share Posted February 27, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted February 28, 2011 Author Share Posted February 28, 2011 Re: Four banks - four staking strategies: +900.32pts Five bets today. (Most bets placed approx 9.00 am) #150 2.20 Plumpton: Promised Wings - all stakes 37.3pts @ 10/3 B365 (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% #151 3.30 Wolverhampton: Dubai Hills - all stakes 45.5pts @ 6/4 B365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #152 3.40 Catterick: A Bridge Too Far - all stakes 45.5pts @ 6/4 VCbet (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #153 4.10 Catterick: Silent Cliche - all stakes 45.5pts @ 6/4 B365 (BOG) - assessed probability 33% to 50% #154 4.50 Plumton: Master D'or - all stakes 37.3pts @ 10/3 Coral (BOG) - assessed probability 25% to 33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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