skylark2009 Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 A new year looms and so a new glory hunt. After being relatively inactive over the previous twelve months on PL I've decided to try my hand with a new glory hunt. The objective of this glory hunt (as with any) is to try to make a profit over the long term by betting on horse racing. The selection process will simply be horses that I assess as having a 25% or better chance of winning their particular race. I'll also set up four betting banks, each of 250 points and use different staking strategies for each one (using the same selections for each bank). Bank one strategy will use a variable staking method based on my assessed probability combined with the available odds for the selection. There will very likely be selections that have 0pts awarded, effectively making them no-bets with this particular strategy. Bank two strategy will be level stakes, with the stakes being the bank divided by two times the estimated longest losing run or Bank/(LLR*2). The estimated longest losing run for the selection method is around 22.75. So the stakes will be 250/(22.75*2) or 5.5pts rounded. Bank three strategy will start off the same as the level stakes strategy (i.e. the starting stakes will be bank/(LLR*2) or 5.5pts), but when the bank goes into profit then the next stake will be initial stake plus square root of the profit made. Bank four strategy will use percentage stakes, with the stake size being 2.2% of the bank and the starting stakes being 5.5pts. With the exception of the level stakes strategy, as each bank grows or shrinks, then so will the size of the stakes used. The stakes will be adjusted on a daily basis at the end of each betting day. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As of 30/01/2011 I will alter the look of the pre-bet posts and the post-bet result posts. When I post up bets, rather than separating the stakes for the different staking strategies, it will now only show the one stake (the consolidated stake of the four different strategies). The stakes can be separated out if required by refering to previous post-bet result tables used, as the different stakes used will be shown there. In the post-bet results, then the rolling history will now only show the consolidated totals for all banks (it should hopefully make for easier reading), rather than for each separate strategy previously used. I've also changed the title to include points profit/loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Re: Four banks To kick off this GH off, I'll put up two for today. The first one is in the 1.00 race at Lingfield and is the favourite at very cramped odds. The second is the favourite in the 2.30 at Lingfield. #1 1.00 Lingfield Mongoose Alert - stakes 20.4pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 4/9 Stan James #2 2.30 Lingfield Chjimes - stakes 4.1pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 3/1 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Re: Four banks good luck skylark:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Re: Four banks good luck with the hunt lark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted December 31, 2010 Author Share Posted December 31, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Four banks Three bets for today, stakes remain the same for banks three and four and adjusted stakes for bank one can be seen in the previous post. #3 12.55 Cheltenham Karabak - stakes 5.6pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 11/4 Coral (BOG) #4 1.55 Southwell Even Stevens - stakes 12.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 1/1 Stan James #5 2.30 Southwell Boogie Star - stakes 12.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 11/10 Skybey, VCbet (BOG), Bet365 (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Four banks Three for today. #6 2.00 Wolverhampton D'artagnan - stakes 3.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 5/1 Stan James #7 2.25 Hereford Celian - stakes 4.7pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 7/2 Bluesquare #8 2.45 Southwell El Dececy - stakes 2.4pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 4/1 Corals (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Re: Four banks Four bets today. #9 3.00 Kempton Feelin Foxy - stakes 3.3pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 4/1 Skybet #10 3.30 Kempton Rustic Deacon - stakes 11.7pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 11/10 Stan James #11 3.10 Southwell Luck Of The Draw - stakes 19.3pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 1/2 Corals #12 3.50 Leicester Smokey George - stakes 8.9pts 5.5pts 5.5pts 5.5pts @ 1/1 Stan James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 4, 2011 Author Share Posted January 4, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: Four banks :clap great stuff skylark:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Re: Four banks Three bets today. #13 1.25 Lingfield Danzigs Grandchild - stakes 7.8pts 5.5pts 8.9pts 5.7pts@ 5/2 Stan James #14 5.35 Kempton Silaah - stakes 2.7pts 5.5pts 8.9pts 5.7pts @ 11/2 Paddypower (BOG) #15 7.05 Kempton Swimsuit - stakes 13.8pts 5.5pts 8.9pts 5.7pts @ 6/5 VCbet (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: Four banks Two bets today. #16 1.20 Southwell Benato The Great - stakes 9pts 5.5pts 12pts 6.2pts @ 11/10 Corals (BOG) #17 3.50 Southwell Dontpaytheferryman - stakes 22.4pts 5.5pts 12pts 6.2pts @ 4/6 Paddy Power (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Four banks Four bets today. #18 1.40 Lingfield Luck Of The Draw - stakes 17.6pts 5.5pts 11.7pts 6.1pts @ 8/11 Bluesquare #19 2.00 Fontwell Eastwell Smiles - stakes 17.6pts 5.5pts 11.7pts 6.1pts @ 10/11 Corals (BOG) #20 2.10 Lingfield Estonia - stakes 4.6pts 5.5pts 11.7pts 6.1pts @ 3/1 Stan James #21 7.10 Wolverhampton Zafeen's Pearl - stakes 17.6pts 5.5pts 11.7pts 6.1pts @ 10/11 W Hill (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: Four banks Two bets today. #22 2.00 Lingfield Loyal Royal - stakes 2.7pts 5.5pts 11.3pts 6.1pts @ 11/2 Corals (BOG) #23 2.40 Sandown Minella Class - stakes 7.9pts 5.5pts 11.3pts 6.1pts @ 85/40 VCbet (BOG) (2/1 is only available now in a few places) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Four banks I've only managed to finalise one qualifer today, which is Dontpaytheferryman (previous winner for this GH) in the 2.15 at Southwell. Some near misses were Dubai Hills (2.45 Southwell), Even Stevens (3.20 Southwell) and Jessie's Dream (1.20 Leopardstown), these fail on price stipulations that I apply. #24 2.15 Southwell Dontpaytheferryman - stakes 24.5pts 5.5pts 12.3pts 6.2pts @ 1/2 Stan James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: Four banks Three bets for tomorrow. I'll put them up now as I'll be in work and will be unable post them up. #25 2.20 Southwell Finn's Rainbow - stakes 10.5pts 5.5pts 12.8pts 6.3pts @ 6/4 Bet365, VCbet or W Hill - (assessed probability 25% to 33%) #26 2.50 Southwell Powerful Presence - stakes 19.6pts 5.5pts 12.8pts 6.3pts @ best available price or SP tomorrow - (assessed probability 33% to 50%) #27 4.00 Leicester Bromhead - stakes 7pts 5.5pts 12.8pts 6.3 @ 9/4 Bet365 or VCbet - (assessed probability 25% to 33%) I'll place these bets tomorrow as I may get better prices than those listed at present. The points awarded using the variable bank stakes table are price dependant (10.5pts, 19.6pts and 7pts in this case), but I'll stick with these points even if the prices available tomorrow suggest otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Four banks Two bets today, (Scary Movie was a potential third but has since been withdrawn.) Feelin Foxy is a repeat bet for this GH and if given a front running ride today could well get his nose in front again. But Beautiful in the second last race, won over this course last time out and could improve again for this extra furlong today. #28 7.15 Kempton Feelin Foxy - stakes 4.7pts 5.5pts 13.2pts 6.4pts @ 9/2 Corals (BOG) - Assessed probability 25% to 33% #29 6.45 Kempton But Beautiful - stakes 11.7pts 5.5pts 13.2pts 6.4pts @ 5/4 Bet365 (BOG) - Assessed probability 33% to 50% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Four banks feelin foxy 5.15,good luck with these skylark:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Four banks feelin foxy 5.15' date='good luck with these skylark:hope[/quote'] Thanks Twinny. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Re: Four banks A quick scan through tomorrow's racecards indicate there are three possible bets. In the 3.30 Southwell, Dubai Hills is being brought out again quickly after three successive wins, if still racefit he could be on for a four timer. Assessed probability of 50%+ and a likely odds on starting price. In the 4.10 Hereford, Arrayan won five days ago for D Pipe, trainer is having a purple patch at the moment and has 6 wins and 6 places from his last twenty runners. Assessed probability of 33% to 50% and a likely odds on starting price. In the 6.50 Kempton, Double Duchess is the only winner in the field, and her distance win at Southwell last time out may be advantageous here, Assessed probability of 25% to 33% with a likely starting price bigger than 3/1? I'll be home in time tomorrow to post these up properly before the first race, along with the points to be bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skylark2009 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Re: Four banks Today's bets are as in the previous post. #30 3.30 Southwell Dubai Hills - stakes 24.7pts 5.5pts 13.5pts 6.4pts @ 4/11 Corals (BOG) #31 4.10 Hereford Arrayan - stakes 21pts 5.5pts 13.5pts 6.4pts @ 8/13 Bet365 (BOG) #32 6.50 Kempton Double Duchess - stakes 7.5pts 5.5pts 13.5pts 6.4pts @ 9/4 W Hill (BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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