Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November

[wizzkid walter]

2:50 Lingfield - Fashionable Gal - Back Has come 2nd on his last 2 starts and that is the ouststanding form on the table in this race. Will be fine on the surface having run 2 good races at Wolverhampton and should break the maiden tag at the 4th time of asking here 1pt win @ sp

[chris34]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 2.20 Lingfield Good race with many having a good chance if repeating certain pieces of form. Avertor was staying on very strongly at the death last time out over 6f and certainly suggests the step up in trip to 7f looks sure to suit but the more interesting runner for me is Lowther who caused a couple of upsets last year including 2nd in the silver cup at ayr last year off a mark of 92, rated just 85 now after a few disappointments this season, but back to form last time out with the eye shields back on only 3/4l down on the winner and Winston replaces apprentice and something I have noticed before this yard they use apprentices to run down marks/run them into form then put a professional up when ready! 1pt win Lowther 7/1 hills

[jayalexander]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 3:50 Lingfield - Strike Force Not priced up as of yet, but amateur races tend to feature attractive odds, which leads me to tip Strike Force. He has raced three times in the past month and has registered a win, while he races again after 2 days rest (I hope). A quick play around on Massey has shown that Lingfield has a more favourable strike rate over other AW tracks for runners in a similar position. He is dropping back 1f for this and the last time this happened, he won at 12/1. He has a regular amateur on board (17 rides, 1 win), although the win came this summer. I think it'll be 2 wins in 18 after this! Win @ sp

[Monterosso]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 2:20 Lingfield - Elspeth's Boy - e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Fine looking price for a fine looking horse. He's a well bred 3 year old who belied odds of 33/1 to win on debut over this 7 furlong trip at Wolverhampton, he was the deemed good enough to run in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket but this was certainly a step too far for the well bred Tiznow colt. His sire was a mighty fine all weather horse and this one could well prove a decent type too. Elspeth's Boy only managed to beat home 2 rivals in his 2 races after his Group 1 race and was then off the track until making a comeback at Kempton 3 weeks ago. He ran a very respectable race, coming 6th in the end, just shy of 4 lengths off the winner. His passage through was not without interference as he very nearly ran into the back of another horse (opponent cut across) then had to check his stride and switch left, this cost him any chance of winning but he probably wouldn't of anyways. He traveled like a dream throughout that race and seemed to be staying on well before being forced to check his stride, he may also have needed the run so it certainly seems like a good run after over 4 months off. He'll strip fitter for having that run and has dropped another 3lbs in the handicap for his last run, all leaving him on a very attractive mark of 76. What interests me is the run at Kempton, it's a notoriously slow surface in comparison to Lingfield and I think this should suit him a lot more, he did win at Wolverhampton on the AW and that's only second to Lingfield in terms of surface speed. He should relish this surface and with a likely strong pace he'll have everything to suit, he's also relatively well drawn in stall 3. Elspeth's Boy is trained by Jim Best, the yard is in fine condition at the moment with 5 winners from 17 runners so far this month and this is their only runner today at a track where they done well at in recent times. Luke Morris is an interesting jockey booking, he's a decent jockey and rides well around here, his strike rate is 10% but when riding for Best at Lingfield he is 2 from 3 (66%), both at good prices of 11/2 and 7/1. Morris will be the key to getting this one to win as the horse seems to need some coaxing along when asked to pick up, with the likely strong gallop I reckon he could be staying on as well as anything if he can just grab the lead late on, he'd certainly be hard to pass if doing so. There are some good types in this race with the likes of Regeneration and Avertor lining up but the latter is tough to win with and unproven over this trip, the former is too short for me and looks a little high in the weight, added to that is Mr. Spencer taking the ride, opposable based on that alone! My selection has to overturn form with Lowther, to which he finished 1.5 lengths behind last time out, however, there is a 9lb swing the Best horses favour here and that rival is half the price at 6/1, madness. Also given my selection potential liking for the surface, I do not think 12/1 is justified, I had him priced up as an 11/2 shot and should place if coming on for that run. Small each way stakes for this one as it's a very tough race and one could come out of the woodwork, I'm hoping the one who does that is the Jim Best 3 year old who is open to a lot more improvement on only his 6th career run.

[calculus]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 3.40 Hexham - Manxman (6/4 Bet365) 1pt Win I've had more seconds than Augustus Gloop during the last week, so hopefully this fellow can put an end to the losing run. Finished a nose ahead of Marsh Warbler last time out, that one has gone on to win impressively, got a bit outpaced that day so ought to be suited by a more testing ground and course today. Also given a good write up by Ferdy in his stable tour.

[andyjkmak]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 1.20 Lingfield Know how you feel Calculus( Augustus Gloop, Love it :lol ) Malice or Mischief looks to have a really good chance here as I think this slight drop back in distance may be ideal after a good run last time out. Callan takes the ride and should get the best out of this one. Obvious dangers in the top two in the betting but I think the odds on offer for this one make it a much better bet. 1 Pt win 13/2 Skybet

[Lars]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 14:10 Hexham This is quite a nice looking handicap hurdle, for Hexham standards anyway. With the ground being as testing as it is, I think that Mister Pete may have been lined up for this sort of race, and he has a big chance today. A three-time winner over hurdles, he had a very decent start to 2010, winning twice in comprehensive fashion over this trip at Newcastle, both on soft or heavy ground. The second victory (off 6lbs lower than he runs off today) was a particularly nice run, making all and streaking away to win by 7 lengths. The one he beat that day went on to win twice in his next two runs so that gave the form a boost. Mister Pete has been disappointing since then however, although there are excuses. His next run, perhaps came too soon for him (only 11 days later). He drifted in the market and that day was obviously not going to be his day and the yard knew that. Had a spin on the flat and that wasn’t a great performance either. Although, he’d never really performed at that trip on the flat. His last run over hurdles last season was also a poor effort, although the fact there was no jockey claim effectively meant he was running off 15lbs higher than he last won off. It also was in a 0-125 affair, so much better company than he’s used to, perhaps providing ample excuses to his poor run. He made his return from the summer break over an inadequate trip of 2 miles last month. The ground was also probably too quick for him, and he looked desperately in need of the run that day. Will strip much fitter from that performance I’d expect, and now he has ground/trip to suit, he’s a big player. Interestingly, Alexander Voy (a jockey whose worth every bit of his 5lb claim) takes the ride again. He was in charge when winning on both occasions at Newcastle, an obviously positive move. Fair Spin seems the obvious danger and he’ll go off favourite. He gets to run off the same mark as when winning last time, and the trip doesn’t look much of a problem, having won over CD before. His last run wasn’t in the greatest of company and this is a lot more competitive. Slowly rising in the weights, and although he may win again, he could be worth opposing at a price that is likely to be too short. Chris Grant is a shrewd operator and wouldn’t be surprised if this one was backed early doors. Even if not, this one has a good chance of at least making the places, if not better. He gets his ideal ground, ideal trip, ideal jockey, and looks to be on a very fair mark. He’s back in a reasonable class of contest now, and at a likely double figure price, he’s worth a decent bet I feel. Mister Pete; EW @ 11/1 Betfred (bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 300 Warwick : High Benefit (10/11 Bet365) The novice race at Warewick we have a warm fav in High Benefit, the mare was impressive when winning a bumper and then was third in the big race at Punchestown, she really ought to win here for Alan King. Not a lot of form to look at elsewhere, I suppose Prince Of Denial has the best form but didnt look to progressive last time and it wouldnt surprise me to see other unexposed types chasing the fav home. Though she would be more like 4/7 so the price is value to me.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November My bet of the day from saturday goes again today,like most of my selections of late it fell..same conditions ,easier race,same write up. 12.55 LIMERICK HIGHLAND BRAVE(>Ladbrokes 14-1 1pt ew) Highland brave possibly found last months class 1 race too hot and didn't jump the best,but the race today is not to that level..This one went off 25-1 on saturday and was brought down early after a good gamble on course...This race is easier The selection used to race on the flat for jim bolger,and if the pace isnt too much in this poor race,this one would run the others into the ground in a finish as long as it had something in the tank.. Ran a good race in september behind the likes of big game hunter and high magic,i dont think anything as good as that in this race,claimer takes off handy 5 pound and the trainer can pull off a gamble

[loadsamoney]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 5.10 kempton coax 9/2 stan james 1pt win coax 4th on debut over 6f at warwick seemed to enjoy the step up in trip to 7f last time out at ayr where he finished 3rd behind fine threads on heavy ground only beaten two lengths.this red ransom colt trained by mark johnston i think will find kemptons surface more to his liking and looks sure to run a big race

[Aidymac]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November Coax - Kempton 5:10 Money coming for this Mark Johnston horse (8/1 into 7/2) and it had 2 respectable maiden runs to date finishing 4th and 3rd respectively. Has found a handy race here and only finished 2 lengths down on its last run so this fella could bounce out in front and may not be caught. 1 Point Win @ 4/1 (Boylesports) BOG

[markmywords]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 14:10 Hexham Kempski - All five wins come from heavy going doing front running 20F. Last winning a class 3 off a mark of 112 his highest winning mark. Running off 95 today lowest mark since winning DEc 06. Ryan Mania taking another 3lb off. 0.5EW 50/1 Victor Chandler.

[Trotter]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November Ling 12.20 - Bilko pak - win at 6/4 BOG with bet365 Looks a 2 horse race on paper with Takeaway the favourite and my selection as 2nd favourite. There doesn't seem much between them in form terms, both have been running well in claimers around the all weather tracks. I'm partly going on ratings - my selection is slighty better in on ORs, he's better in on RPRs and I've got him in front on speed figures. Why not pick the one with the better ratings ? Trip - the suggestion is that Bilko didn't quite see out 7F at Wolves whereas Takeaway didn't quite see out 8F at Kemp and that Takeaway will be suited by returning to 7F and bolko should go back to 6F Well, the 7F here is a bit easier than at Wolves - i reckon Bilko will be OK here at 7F but it might be a bit sharp for Takeaway.

[kroni]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 2:10 Hexham - KINGS GUARD @ 9/1 E-W VC Lightly raced only had 6 starts and only 1 peace of decent form when winning here last year over 3 mile on soft. Had a recent run from long lay off over 2 mile which i think was too short, 2 1/2 mile today should suit much better in this heavy ground, has seen a bit of support in the market also.

[wafer]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 7:10 Beauchamp Viceroy @ Kempton - Won here at Kempton in April in a class 2,stepped down in class LTO and finished 3rd at Wolverhampton.The return to Kempton and is off the same mark as last run 0.5pt E/W bet @ 14/1 VCBet

[Aidymac]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November

14:10 Hexham Kempski - All five wins come from heavy going doing front running 20F. Last winning a class 3 off a mark of 112 his highest winning mark. Running off 95 today lowest mark since winning DEc 06. Ryan Mania taking another 3lb off. 0.5EW 50/1 Victor Chandler.

:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap

[markmywords]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November deat heat cheers mate

[Falbrav]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November SIR BOSS 3.20 Lingfield. 0.5 points each way. Weighted to go well and capable of finding a little more. Trip and surface fine and I'd be surprised if he's not fighting out the finish. 8/1 is an outstanding price.

[Lars]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November

14:10 Hexham Kempski - All five wins come from heavy going doing front running 20F. Last winning a class 3 off a mark of 112 his highest winning mark. Running off 95 today lowest mark since winning DEc 06. Ryan Mania taking another 3lb off. 0.5EW 50/1 Victor Chandler.

Very nice pick, I was on the horse that finished third (just behind). Only had one look at the finish but I was sure Kempski had held on. Dead Heat seems a little odd, although it might just be the camera angle.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 15:20 Lingfield Lady Lam is the one for me in this race. This 4 year old seems on the upgrade with two very good runs on the AW at Kempton in her last two runs. She has racked up 4 wins in total this year and is now on a mark of 64 having been sent handicapping off a mark of 49 back in March this year so that just outlines how well she has done this season. Has only faced this trip once previously on turf but they way she stayed on in her last two races at Kempton certainly suggests to me that she will apprciate this trip. This is an amateurs race and today's jockey takes off 3lbs which effectively makes her 1lb better of than her win at Kempton LTO. 1pt Win Lady Lam @ 3/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November Relative Strength 3.50 Lingfield. 1 point win. Likes the trip and surface and weighted to get involved in the outcome. Should have the race run to suit and therefore has every chance of winning this.

[Dtrains]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 6.40 Pearl Arch caught the eye when beating a good field last time over 7f at kemp staying on at the end so todays trip of a 1mile should pose no problem he beat a couple of good sorts that day and the 6lb rise may not stop him. 1pt win

[kerznerpunt]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 6. 10 Kempton, Traphalgar, 1pt win at 9/1 with Bet365 Reasoning coming shortly but their off in 3 minutes ;)

[kerznerpunt]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November

6. 10 Kempton' date=' [b']Traphalgar, 1pt win at 9/1 with Bet365 Reasoning coming shortly but their off in 3 minutes ;)

He is the best on official ratings, maybe was not at his best when last seen and have to overcome a break but if hes anywhere near the form he has shown last year, he should be tough to beat. Like the trainer as hes able to get something out of bad material and 9/1 looks overpriced for Traphalgar.

[fintron]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November 7.10 Kempton Beauchamp Viceroy - looks a bet for the traders does this. Could enjoy run of the race and goes well over poly and over trip. Been running in good form of late and very able Dane O'Neill takes the ride for a yard that have banged in a few winners in recent days. Can be backed at 18.0 and should trade at half of that in running IMO. If he does lose it is likely to be headed inside the final furlong. By that time the price should have tumbled in running, assuming he tries to make all as he usually does. For comp purposes 14/1 VC Bet, 1 pt win.

[Trotter]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November Looks like the old thread is well in profit today ! Well done lads..............:clap

[fintron]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November

7.10 Kempton Beauchamp Viceroy - looks a bet for the traders does this. Could enjoy run of the race and goes well over poly and over trip. Been running in good form of late and very able Dane O'Neill takes the ride for a yard that have banged in a few winners in recent days. Can be backed at 18.0 and should trade at half of that in running IMO. If he does lose it is likely to be headed inside the final furlong. By that time the price should have tumbled in running, assuming he tries to make all as he usually does. For comp purposes 14/1 VC Bet, 1 pt win.

traded at 1.43 in running so the lay trade never in doubt. mugged inside the last 50 yards into 2nd though :\ When your lucks out its out!

[fintron]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November

Looks like the old thread is well in profit today ! Well done lads..............:clap

great day lads :clap

[Trotter]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November

traded at 1.43 in running so the lay trade never in doubt. mugged inside the last 50 yards into 2nd though :\ When your lucks out its out!

I was really keen on Beauchamp when i looked at the race last night, thinking that this was his Champion Stakes whereas the others were just having run outs before shipping to Dubai.......... But I hadn't noticed the whacking 8lb penalty........that's what put me off this morning.............in the end that 8 lbs probably made the difference !

[fintron]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Wednesday 17th November

I was really keen on Beauchamp when i looked at the race last night, thinking that this was his Champion Stakes whereas the others were just having run outs before shipping to Dubai.......... But I hadn't noticed the whacking 8lb penalty........that's what put me off this morning.............in the end that 8 lbs probably made the difference !

Yeah the penalty certainly proved key. Oh well, just one of those things I suppose, swings and roundabouts as they say! well done to the other winners today, Chris' pick on Lowther was a belter as that race looked superb. Was on Regeneration myself but that was unp.