BBOTD 8th Nov

[fintron]

3.10 Wolverhampton Avid Kale has shown an ability to run well on artifical surfaces and over this distance and looks capable of winning a nursery in time whilst John Best's Fosterkane hinted a drop back in trip would suit when failing to see out a mile at Kempton last month. However, if GENTLEMAN IS BACK runs his race he should be very touch to beat. John Gosden's Johannesburg colt was off the mark over this track and trip in September and with the smart second franking the form with two subsequent wins its very hard to see the selection getting turned over tomorrow. Evs William Hill, 1 pt win.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov 3:10 Wolverhampton - Gentleman Is Back - Back Looks to have an outstanding opportunity here. Followed up a nice debut 4th by winning lto. Finished really strongly that day, getting up late to prevail by a neck. He may still have been a tad babyish that day, so the experience of a 2nd run may well bring about marked further improvement here. John Gosden has had a brilliant season and although it's a shame Buick isn't riding, Havlin is solid enough and should be able to get the job done nicely here 1pt win @ 5/6 William Hill BOG

[Dtrains]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov Good evening all, long time no see internet connection issues hopefully i will be back for good :hope 3.10 Gentleman is back is a fairly strong selection the form of the maiden win is working out very well with flag officer coming out and winning a maiden then a nursery off 80 the 3rd an 4th horses that day (tasfeya and irons of fire) have also come out and won there maidens all in all the selection could be well above the mark of 80 he has been alloted and should scoot up here to land the spoils for john gosden. 1pt win 5/6 hills

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov 2:45 Southwell - Hot Tottie - e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Relatively lightly raced 6 year old who has only really impressed on one occasion when coming a half length second to a horse rated 115 in her prime, that run was in March of this year and my selection was quite unlucky not to be winning that race having been hampered mid race. She comes here on the back of a 5th place on her reappearance after being off the track since June, she ran decent in defeat over 2m 6 at Exeter and should strip much fitter for having had that run just over 1 month ago. She was 19 lengths behind Miss Saffron that day but she showed enough in defeat to make me believe that a mark of 90 is certainly not beyond her capabilities, she has been dropped a further 6lbs in weight for that run and a total of a stone since making her handicap debut off a mark of 104. Promising young claimer Ian Popham takes off a valuable 5lbs in weight too which should certainly help and leaves her with a riding weight of 10st 12lbs. Popham has been picking up some rides for Paul Nicholls of late so he's certainly a capable jockey and he comes here for just 1 ride, he should also be full of confidence having ridden Nicholls' horse Meanus Dandy to an easy win in a Listed event at Wincanton on Saturday. He was also on board my selection for her last run and should know a lot more about her now having had that experience. Hot Tottie now steps back to 2m 4f, a trip which should be her optimum and will more than likely end up tackling good ground unless it rains a lot more overnight, these conditions shouldn't be of any bother and the sharp flat nature of the Southwell track should be ideal for her. From a quality point of view this race doesn't look that tough at all and if this Mare can get her jumping spot on she must have a good chance, she tends to jump a little slowly at times but now has first time cheekpieces on to help her concentrate, if they have the desired effect she could be too good for this field. Hot Tottie is trained by Jeremy Scott, he doesn't have many runners at Southwell having only sent a total of 6 to run here in the past but it's quite interesting that the last 3 he sent here have came 1st and he only sends out 2 today. The majority of his recent runners have been performing well and I'm hoping he'll be trying to get a good tune out of this Mare soon enough, she was pulled out of a race a couple of weeks ago too, hopefully in preference of taking the spoils in what looks a very winnable race for a horse with any hint of ability. 12/1 looks a tasty price to me and she's worth decent sized each way stakes, she has also shifted in from 14/1 so far this morning but I still believe it's value and I had her marked up as a 13/2 shot in my book. Her best efforts have come when racing prominent, she didn't do that last time out but raced to a level that should be good enough to compete here assuming she puts her best foot forward and comes on for the run, getting the jumping spot on will also be hugely vital as I believe she lost around 2 lengths per jump on 3 or 4 occasions last time out, possibly some ring rust due to having 4 months off but she should be a lot fitter and hopefully can prove up to the task here. It's a poor race involving a hell of a lot of poor horses and I'm hoping she'll place at least, she certainly has the capabilities to do so and if running like she did at Exeter when 2nd she should have enough to win this.

[kerznerpunt]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov 2.25 Carlisle, Diamond Frontier, 3pt win at 7/4 with Bet365 - BOG Et Maintenant impressed me on his penultimate start but have something to prove right now, while i always thought of Hockenheim being a useful sort at this level but he have to prove something aswell. Sotovik arrives here bidding for a hattrick but i dont think hes good enough /progressive enough to defy his penalty here especially against the bold-jumping Diamond Frontier. This horse looked above average when winning last time out in the mud and im very confident he handles a mark of 124. 7/4 looks a cracking price to me and indeed he should be near odds-on in my opinion, at all i expect him to take all the beating if tuned up for his reappereance.

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov 4.45 Wolverhampton - Spectait (17/2 VC) 1pt Win Rattled off a hat-trick over course and distance in early 2009 but has been handicapped out of it ever since, has finally dropped to below last winning AW mark and is returned to a class 4 race for the first time since winning the first two legs of the hat trick in 2009. In all probability is not as good as he was but this is the first time he's had everything in his favour in a while and as such is worth chancing at the price.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov 3.30 CARLISLE BENEOCH 9-1 1pt ew(WILLIAM HILL) This one takes a big jump in class here,but this class 4 race isnt the strongest..Dead 8 go to post for this Cubby Construction Handicap Chase (CLASS 4) and if the selection is on the ball should place at least.. Ran 8th to moment of madness in may of this year,before been off track for 143 days,maybe there was a problem i don't know..But it returned in October at hexham,ran a good race finishing 19l off sierra victor.. That was a good pipe opener and i think connections have started to get a handle on this one,it has pulled up a lot in the past and possibly had a hidden problem but now they step it up to class 4,with the same jockey as last time,the very capable ryan mania who also takes off a handy 3 pound with his claim.. Last race was on good to soft ground so the ground is no problem,aving finihed 2nd here over C&D last year on heavy ground to Nelliedone that by a neck it would appear that it acts best when there is cut in the ground..

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov 4.45 Wolves Cobo Bay has slipped down to a very low mark and back on a track he likes could well lead them the whole way. Only won a couple of claimers this year but must be in with a chance here having won off higher marks in the past. 1 Pt win 9/1 VCBet

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov Wolv 1.30 - Conry - win at 11/4 BOG with Laddies Comes here as a well handicapped horse in pretty good form Runs off 8 lbs below his last winning mark and no less than 11 lbs below his mark last time out when he finished a half length 2nd at catterick His AW record is poor - 6-0-0 - but he has ran well here when beaten 1.5 lenghs by regeneration in a similar race to today a few runs ago. He finished 7th which masks how close up he was. He's 6lbs lower today than for that run I'm normally a bit dubious about horses who are handicapped well below their last winning mark as there's usually a reason why, but this one appears to be in good nick, acts at the track and has been given a real chance by the assessor.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov 1250 Carlisle: Dove Hill (2/1 Stan James) The novice race at Carlisle has only 4 runners and two of them are newcomers, having said that the two with form could fight out the finish. Dove Hill ran a nice race on debut and looks sure to improve and Bring On The Judge comes up from the Twiston Davies yard, he has solid form, the ground may be the key if it keeps raining and Dove Hill has won over 3 miles on heavy.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov 1.30 Wolverhampton So AW kicks off daily today and rather a piss poor opening event, Conry ran a good race last time out that was on soft ground on turf last week and his AW mark is 11lb lower, but has always lacked any serious threat of form on the AW even after running well on turf which is concerning. Just Timmy Marcus and Lord Of The Dance both often run well round here but struggle to win and also drop back in trip which I dont feel they need. Any money for the Irish raider would always look significant around here but 3lb out of handicap is a concern. I was hoping for a little bigger price about Kings Caprice but I think the old boy could still be the one to give a chance to at the prices, he stayed on well on penultimate start at 6f at windsor and stepped up on that effort when 6th by just 2 lengths again staying on strongly, runs off same mark today and is very dangerously handicapped on his best younger day form being rated as high as 104 in his prime!! The other interesting runner for me is another old boy Compton Micky who is out of the handicap by a massive 11lb out of the handicap BUT young apprentice claims 7lb of that back and he shaped VERY encouringingly on return from 4 years on the missing list when staying on 3rd at southwell over 6f, steps upto 7f today its a shame yard didnt wait for a southwell handicap opening but having said that he could still go well at a massive price! 0.5pt e/w Kings Caprice 15/2 Hills

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov Sorry BH that price has gone, i'l take 6/1 VC

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov MICKWELL BAY 1.10 Southwell. 1 point win. New yard and drops to a very attractive mark of 75. Trip and ground shouldn't be a concern and no surprise to see an improved performance today.

[ogii55]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov Wolv 16.15 Lady Brickhouse 1 pt W VC/Will Hill 34.00 It will be the first ride on such a long trip. The animal showed very nice qualities last time in Wolvs on 9 f, where finished forth but was almost in line with the winner and other two placers. Very experienced on sands with 16 runs so far (huge exp for a 3 years old). Saleem Golam rode the horse last five times, scoring a 50/1 second in Class 5 race (now Class 6).

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov SUZHOU 1.30 Wolverhampton. 0.5 points each way. Needs to show improvement, but the visor goes on today and that, I think, will bring out enough improvement to see her go close today. The trip and surface fine and Cathy Gannon as good as most men.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov 3:55 Tharaya @ Southwell - Been running well this year with two wins and a second LTO only going down by three quarters of a length.Has won over course and distance in April winning that by twelve lengths and uis sure to go close again 1 pt Win bet @ 4/1 Ladbrokes

[StuSimmy]

Re: BBOTD 8th Nov 15:40 Wolverhampton Cheery Cat looks one of the likely winners in this race having won previously over course and distance earlier this year in March. He has now dropped 2lbs below this mark which will be the first time he has returned to this course off a lower mark. His three runs over this CD after the win were not the best efforts but they all came off marks over 55. Was a decen enough 3rd on his latest outing on Halloween at Lingfield over this trip, lost 2nd place in the final strides after he couldn't match the pace of the evntual winner. Same jockey on board today and runs off a similar mark so he should have strong claims. 1pt win Cheery Cat @ 9/2 (>Bet365 - BOG)