relf Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins All the best to the start of the season! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi Barn, Higher odds = lower stakes => sounds very logic, but it's still on theory, did you test it based on results of last seasons ? :) I haven't tested this in detail with last season's data, but it is the way I've been betting and has been back-tested before then. The ROI tends to be similar to level stakes, though I prefer it as this system could quite easily highlight a 16/1 shot and 9/4 shot on the same weekend, and I wouldn't like to be betting/risking the same amount on both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Good luck for this season:ok would it be convenient for you to backtest this new staking plan and let us know the results? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gunnar Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi, Bairn. Thank you for posting all these picks. Keep up the great work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugo88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Thanks Bairn1, used +0.5 AH on these plays, don't know if it will show profit. Hope this thread is profitable for you and everyone else. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins DateMatchOddsP/LP/L Cum 27/08/2011 Preston 2 - 0 Notts County4.33-£7.50£492.50 27/08/2011 Shrewsbury 2 - 1 Swindon3.5-£9.50£483.00 27/08/2011 Oxford 1 - 1 Aldershot4.2-£8.00£475.00 27/08/2011 Port Vale 2 - 3 Southend3.25£23.63£498.63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jango Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Good picks, just got unlucky with aldershot's red card, otherwise they would have won I believe. Decent start to the season anyway. Thank you! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inchicore_saint Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Only seen this thread today, keep up the good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delpieuro Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins i have a question, as this system wins alot, is it real bookies try to close ur account if u win alot ? and how much is alot? :P thank you ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
v-zero Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins i have a question' date=' as this system wins alot, is it real bookies try to close ur account if u win alot ? and how much is alot? :P thank you ...[/quote'] Any long-term profitability will lead to limited stakes being allowed, any very long-term profitability will lead to account closure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Any long-term profitability will lead to limited stakes being allowed' date=' any very long-term profitability will lead to account closure.[/quote'] No true in all circumstances. I was recently looking through the millions of accounts at Coral and there are many consistent winners who have a "dangerous indicator' of 0%. As long as your activity is deemed appropiate and not suspicious (arbing, massive sums of a marginal market) you'll be fine. They should be commended for it. This behaviour is not true of all bookies I have to agree with V-Zero on that front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Depends on the book really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inchicore_saint Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Wonder will Rotherham away to Swindon or Dagenham away to Hereford be on the list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins i have a question' date=' as this system wins alot, is it real bookies try to close ur account if u win alot ? and how much is alot? :P thank you ...[/quote'] With a few bookies such as Stan James and SportingBet I was only £100 or so in profit and my stakes were severely limited meaning it was no longer worth while me betting with them. With Victor Chandler I was about level before winning a few hundred pounds on an ante-post accumulator and my account was closed. With some other bookies, I've won a lot more and can still place bets, and with some others I'm down, so they are obviously happy to keep taking my money! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 3 for tomorrow... 03/09/2011 | Hartlepool v Exeter | £9.00 at 3.6 (Tote) 03/09/2011 | Sheffield United v Bury | £6.50 at 5 (Ladbrokes) 03/09/2011 | Forest Green v Grimsby | £9.50 at 3.5 (BlueSquare) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Re: closing accounts hi Bairns great thread I had the same problem with bet365 and corbett sport with another system When they realised I was winning they reduced my stakes Bet365 had given me a double up bonus of £200 and I eventually managed to lose all the money laying it off into my betfair account These bookies dont mind taking your money but when you get a decent strategy going they are very quick to close your accounts Keep the tips coming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inchicore_saint Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins 3 for tomorrow... 03/09/2011 | Hartlepool v Exeter | £9.00 at 3.6 (Tote) 03/09/2011 | Sheffield United v Bury | £6.50 at 5 (Ladbrokes) 03/09/2011 | Forest Green v Grimsby | £9.50 at 3.5 (BlueSquare) Thanks for the tips, today was the first time I bet on them so not a bad start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knobbo Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Thanks for the tips' date=' today was the first time I bet on them so not a bad start.[/quote'] If you want a few euros just lump on Rovers to win the league! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenberg99 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Just read this mate. Good work! Im going to follow you as of next week and see how I get on. To all the people asking for his workings and theory. Leave the bloke to it and enjoy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inchicore_saint Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins If you want a few euros just lump on Rovers to win the league! :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 03/09/2011 Hartlepool 2 - 0 Exeter3.6-£9.00£489.63 03/09/2011 Sheffield United 4 - 0 Bury5-£6.50£483.13 03/09/2011 Forest Green 0 - 1 Grimsby3.5£23.75£506.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lojze365 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Hi everyone, I`m to this forum and I wanna say thanks to Bairn and others who are giving out their knowledge for helping others. Bairn, how much time did you dedicate to all this ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winningbin Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I think the topic is useful, yeah, no doubt ! All of topics here are very useful for us here, for only US here. However, just imagine all of punters in this world look in these topics here this forum, at that time, with who we will bet ? :loon I laugh when somebody says how to beat bookies, in fact we don't fight against bookies, we fight against each other. :D Or in this case, we - the group of punters here - fight with other groups outside this forum. Hope all of others out there don't join this. Hi everyone, I`m to this forum and I wanna say thanks to Bairn and others who are giving out their knowledge for helping others. Bairn, how much time did you dedicate to all this ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Another 3 for Saturday... 10/09/2011 | Cardiff v Doncaster | £5.50 at 6 (Ladbrokes) 10/09/2011 | Charlton v Exeter | £5.50 at 6 (BetFred) 10/09/2011 | Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet | £7.00 at 5 (Ladbrokes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Punt_4THEE_Profit_ Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Have you a running P/L? Edit; Sorry only read the actual thread there now as I didn't see when I first clicked in it is 20 pages long! Ridiculous how many accounts have been created to just try and get this formula!Great work man, Keep it up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyVadah Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Just a question, if one were to stake on Draw no Bet instead of a straight away team win, would that tend to limit the profit or limit the losses? DnB odds are still generally pretty good anyway. Based on the above 3 selections, the odds are 3.75 DnB. I know this would depend on the number of draws vs losses in the picks, but it would be interesting to know the difference based on last season, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inchicore_saint Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Another 3 for Saturday... 10/09/2011 | Cardiff v Doncaster | £5.50 at 6 (Ladbrokes) 10/09/2011 | Charlton v Exeter | £5.50 at 6 (BetFred) 10/09/2011 | Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet | £7.00 at 5 (Ladbrokes) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 10, 2011 Author Share Posted September 10, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Just a question, if one were to stake on Draw no Bet instead of a straight away team win, would that tend to limit the profit or limit the losses? DnB odds are still generally pretty good anyway. Based on the above 3 selections, the odds are 3.75 DnB. I know this would depend on the number of draws vs losses in the picks, but it would be interesting to know the difference based on last season, I wouldn't be able to test this without the exact odds, but I'd be pretty sure this would still give a good profit. However, the system would've lost a lot more if betting on draws that it would have if betting on homes, so I think that the ROI would be a lot lower than if simply betting on aways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn1 Posted September 11, 2011 Author Share Posted September 11, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 10/09/2011 Cardiff 2 - 0 Doncaster6-£5.50£501.38 10/09/2011 Charlton 2 - 0 Exeter6-£5.50£495.88 10/09/2011 Kidderminster 2 - 2 Ebbsfleet5-£7.00£488.88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Punt_4THEE_Profit_ Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins DateMatchOddsP/LBank (£500 start) 10/09/2011 Cardiff 2 - 0 Doncaster6-£5.50£501.38 10/09/2011 Charlton 2 - 0 Exeter6-£5.50£495.88 10/09/2011 Kidderminster 2 - 2 Ebbsfleet5-£7.00£488.88 To be honest I thought Cardiff and Charlton would definitely win so I did back Ebbsfleet...close in the end :ok How many times have you had a week with not one winner? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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