Robinnho

Linda Fruhvirtova to beat Ana Konjuh at 2.00 with Bet365
I don't trust Fruhvirtova to be a strong favorite yet, but she's the underdog against Konjuh, who was struggling physically in her most recent matches and who's on a poor streak in any case. Fruhvirtova will have to calm down from all the adrenaline, but, if she does, she will beat Konjuh I feel. At 2.00, this looks worth a shot to me.

Veronika Kudermetova to beat Marie Bouzkova at 1.80 with BetVictor
There were plenty of scenes in the Osaka Kudermetova match, Osaka making a drama out of nothing again, but Kudermetova played well and let's not underestimate that. I think that her power will be too much for Bouzkova to cope here, she's struggled with that before and she might struggle with that easily again. She's also played a lot of tennis recently, so that's hardly a plus. I was expecting 1.66 for Kudermetova here, so I'll take everything above.

F.Bagnis to beat L.Harris @2.55 (local bookie Soccerbet)

Harris is tragic since the start of the season. Last weekend he struggled big against Israel in Davic Cup. He won (very close match) against No.659 and then lost to No.350 in ATP rankings..Bagnis is clay court specialist,but conditions in IW are very slow so that could give him a solid chance against a player completely out of shape..great value odds.

On to today and again there's not much time until play starts. I'm taking three singles and then one short price treble - all with 365 - starting with Brooksby to beat Khachanov. On a faster surface I might be in two minds about this match, but as it is I think Brooksby deserves to be favourite as he's got more to his game than Khachanov does and that's usually rewarded on slower surfaces like this one. Then I'm backing Van Uytvanck against Rybakina. She's been playing well recently and Rybakina has been dealing with some physical issues so the price on Van Uytvanck appeals. My final single is a bit of a punt as I'm going to take Saville to beat Jabeur. Her ranking is completely false and she's had plenty of wins so far this season including three here. This is Jabeur's first match of the tournament so Saville might be able to catch her cold. As for the treble, I can't see too many problems for any of Nadal, Kyrgios or Vika. Korda is far too inconsistent on serve to trouble Nadal, Kyrgios looks as though he's motivated and having just flattened one clay court player he should be able to take care of Delbonis easily enough. Vika should also be beating Sharma who's fairly limited.
30pts Brooksby to beat Khachanov @ 1.90
25pts Van Uytvanck to beat Rybakina @ 3.20
20pts Saville to beat Jabeur @ 5.00
10pts Nadal (vs. Korda) x Kyrgios (vs. Delbonis) x Azarenka (vs. Sharma) @ 1.56

Not a great season so far, but I'll keep digging as always.
Tereza Martincova (+4.5) to beat Paula Badosa at 1.93 with Pinnacle
This one I actually like a lot, Martincova was on fire against Watson, serving well despite the tricky conditions and she was punishing from the baseline as well, some great hitting. She has a 3-0 record over Badosa as well, though it is aging by now. If Badosa starts a bit slowly, she'll be in for some trouble and I think that Martincova can keep things tight even if Badosa plays her decent standard.

Not much time so just a few words about who I'm backing today. I'm starting with Daniel to beat Murray, as the price for him to win bearing in mind he beat him recently at the AO is just too big. Then I'm backing Nakashima as he's a justified favourite in conditions that his opponent Mannarino will not like.
60pts Daniel to beat Murray @ 3.50 Victor
35pts Nakashima to beat Mannarino @ 1.73 Boyles

I'm backing three in Indian Wells today. First I'll take Coric to beat Davidovich Fokina. He's not played since last year and that's factored into his price, but I think it's been factored in a little too much. The conditions should help Davidovich Fokina and he should be the favourite, but I can't have him as short as he is. I'll also back Eubanks to beat Cressy. He's got two solid wins in qualifying behind him, whilst Cressy has lost his last three and his form has - not surprisingly - tailed off after a strong start to the season. Finally I'm going with Linette over Petkovic in what should be a very even match. I give Linette the slightest of edges as the conditions seem to suit her better, as evidenced by her better record at this tournament compared to Petkovic.
10pts Coric to beat Davidovich Fokina @ 4.00 365
30pts Eubanks to beat Cressy @ 2.63 Boyles
25pts Linette to beat Petkovic @ 2.00 365

Arantxa Rus to beat Katie Volynets at 1.60 with BetVictor
I've been rather disappointed with Volynets lately, she hasn't had any good results despite showing some promise very early on in the season. It just seems that she isn't ready to compete at the highest level, while Rus certainly is. She had a decent showing last week and just hasn't been losing to players of Volynets' level so far in this season.

I think Zhang is underrated against Rus. 2.56 is pretty high for Zhang. Indoor-hard suits better to her game than for Rus. the dutch doesnt have a good record against Top100 players especially on hardcourt

I see the posts regarding Shapavalov and Zverev and for me this match goes in fav of the fav. There is simply no comparison between the two. Shapavalov fell of a cliff after WImbledon while Zverev is getting better and better.  I think the victory at the Olympics has given Zverev the belief, because the way he dismantled Djoko there was frightening. Nobody is playing better 1st strike tennis , behind the serve than him.
Looking for 3 low priced winner today, taken all as singles;
1/23/2022 G Monfils v M Kecmanovic G Monfils 0.22 1/23/2022 A Barty v V Anismova A Barty 0.27 1/23/2022 S Halep v E Cornet S Halep 0.15  
 

Kaia Kanepi 2-0 v Maddison Inglis 1.80 (Bet365)
For me its about levels. Inglis is playing her first match on RLA (Centre Court) and I'm not sure if she can raise her levels to stay in this one, no matter the home support. She hasn't much WTA tour experience too.
She had a good win v out of sorts (possibly hampered by a back injury) Fernandez and scraped past the young qualifier Baptiste. During the match she didn't have an easy service hold and I think that will spell trouble v a player like Kanepi. Inglis also lost 2-6 1-6 v Zidansek and 1-6 3-6 v Rogers in Adelaide, I think it will be a blueprint of how this match will go. 
 

Having watched most of the ATP cup, and the woman's and men's warm up tournaments, one thing is clear. Travel to Australia is a long journey, and jet-lag and acclimation are playing a big part. Those who have not played a warm up match or two have not that fared well. Normally jet -leg is worse when going West to East, so maybe for players from the USA it is less, but a few weeks of settling in definitely make a big difference here.
So most top players who warmed up at the ATP cup will be ready to go (Bautista Agut, Shapavalov, Creeno-Busta , Auger Alliasime, Medvedev, Zverev etc).
Pegula lost two matches in a row, and could easily have been 0 and 3 today.
Tiafoe lost two matches in a row
Kvitova looks in poor form.
Medvedev lost 1st match, ATP cup.
Lloyd Harris played really badly (I think over 66 unforced errors)
K Andersen lost both his matches in Aus.
Radacanu got demolished.
One guy that has played a lot of matches in Aus that I think is rock solid is Dan Evans. He did well in the ATP cup, (3 singles win and 2 doubles wins) and won 2 matches in Sydney (lost very close to Karatsev in semi). He will be ready, which can't be said about his opponent (Goffin), who comes back after long injury. At Sydney he retired a set down against Murray. Evans only 1.28 for the win, but I think he does it easily. You can't buy 5 set match fitness. Only comes from playing.
My 2nd pick is Casper Ruud over ALex Molcan. Ruud played ATP cup, did pretty well, rested last week. He should be a solid winner here.
My 3rd Pick is Diego Schwartzman. Again, someone who played ATP cup (beat Basilashvilli and Tsitsipas), and rested last week. He plays Filip Krajinovic and should just be too strong in what is a clash of very similar styles.
My last pick in this grouping is Ugo Humbert playing Richard Gasquet. Humbert played ATP (had terrific victory over Medvedev). He plays Richard Gasquet, who's tennis pro days are coming to an end. Gasquet also not played a competitive match in Aus this year, so he's just there to get the 1st round money and go home.
So the 4 legged bet gives odds of 14 to 10 which is fine for me. 
Humbert, Evans, Schwartzman, Ruud
 

No Vaccine, no French Open for Djokovic, says France's sports ministry.
PARIS (REUTERS) - Novak Djokovic could be barred from playing in the French Open as things stand after France's sports ministry said on Monday (Jan 17) there would be no exemption from its new vaccine pass law.

Alright, guys! We’re just in time for the first Grand Slam of the new season and I’d like to wish everyone the best of luck! The lead-up has been largely overshadowed by the Djokovic saga, but that’s just how it was bound to be given what he triggered by his antics. It’s also a big bother for the pre-tournament betting, as he shouldn’t play, but who knows – the lawyers might score a good one and have it overturned just in time.
For that reason, I’m not going to place any long term bets just yet, especially since there are still two finals to go in a few hours. Andy Murray has recovered nicely from the Bagnis debacle and is now in the finals against Karatsev, while Kokkinakis is living the Aussie dream. As for the match bets, I’m decided on these so far:
Yulia Putintseva (-4.5) to beat Harmony Tan at 1.89 with Unibet
Putintseva is yet to play in this season, but she should be way too strong for Harmony Tan if she’s reasonably fit. I saw Tan lose against Potapova and she just looked like a walking bye in that match, horrible movement, poor unforced errors, bad everything. She had some decent results at the very end of the previous season in Linz, but she also lost to unknown players a bit before that. I don’t trust her at all and Putintseva is a player that will draw unforced errors from her.
Su Jeong Jang to beat Danka Kovinic at 1.95 with Pinnacle
Kovinic is playing with no belief these days and she’ll be up against Jang, who I was impressed with during the qualifiers. I saw her against Errani and Masarova and she looked very decent in both matches. She can run all day from the back of the baseline, she basically beat Errani at her own game in their showdown.
Katie Volynets to beat Beatriz Haddad Maia at 2.03 with Pinnacle
Above evens for a 6-0 qualifier? Count me in! I admit that I haven’t seen Haddad Maia recently, but she didn’t crush a 900-ranked player and then lost a set against Dabrowski, who’s a doubles specialist. That’s not a good start to the season and it just shows that she’s still struggling. Volynets has nothing to lose here, she has plenty of form and she beat Haddad Maia in Wimbledon last year. I don’t see a reason to have her as the underdog here.
Priscilla Hon (+6) to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Yeah, Vondrousova is the favourite and I’ll be rooting for her, but +6 is a disrespectful handicap honestly. Hon should believe in herself after beating Kvitova and then troubling Azarenka for a large chunk of the match, while her loss against Cristian was very tight as well. Vondrousova is yet to get going this year, she had two hard-fought matches so far and 6 games is a lot to cover imo.
Heather Watson to beat Mayar Sherif 1.73 with William Hill
Watson is not the above average player she once was anymore, but she still has enough power to outplay Sherif, who has no real weapons. This is just a wrong match-up and, unless Watson goes missing big time, she should be comfortable in this one.
Matteo Berretini (-1.5 sets) to beat Brandon Nakashima at 1.83 with Sbobet
The only one I like in men’s in the first round so far. Berretini might be 1-2 for the season, but he played very well against Medvedev and Humbert, while Nakashima folded quite tamely against Opelka. Beating Fognini and Vesely, well, let’s just say that this doesn’t count for that much these days.

He's playing in the new range of striped pajamas ? 
Looking at the woman's seeds. DO any of them look weak?
1. Ashleigh Barty (AUS): +275
2. Aryna Sabalenka (BLR): +1800
3. Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP): +1000
4. Barbora Krejcikova (CZE): +2000WON
5. Maria Sakkari (GRE): +2500WON
6. Anett Kontaveit (EST): +1400WON
7. Iga Swiatek (POL): +1200WON
8. Paula Badosa (ESP): +1600WON
9. Ons Jabeur (TUN): +4000 WITHDRAWAL
10. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS): +3000WON
11. Sofia Kenin (USA): +5000 LOST
12. Elena Rybakina (KAZ): +1600WON
13. Naomi Osaka (JPN): +500WON
14. Simona Halep (ROU): +1200
15. Elina Svitolina (UKR): +4000WON
16. Angelique Kerber (GER): +4500
17. Emma Raducanu (GBR): +2500
18. Coco Gauff (USA):  UNEXPECTED LOSS
19. Elise Mertens (BEL): +5000WON
20. Petra Kvitova (CZE): +5000LOST 
21. Jessica Pegula (USA): +6000WON
22. Belinda Bencic (SUI): +3000WON
23. Leylah Fernandez (CAN): +3000UNEXPECTED LOSS
24. Victoria Azarenka (BLR): +3000WON
25. Daria Kasatkina (RUS): +5000WON
26. Jelena Ostapenko (LAT): +8000
27. Danielle Collins (USA): +4000
28. Veronika Kudermetova (RUS): OTBWON
29. Tamara Zidansek (SLO): +15000
30. Camila Giorgi (ITA): +5000WON
31. Marketa Vondrousova (CZE): +5000WON
32. Sara Sorribes Tormo (ESP): +20000WON
If you exclude the bold'ed players, could you easily win 26  of 32 bets in the first round? Would you make money?
Definitely see Kenin losing to Keys
Pegula struggling with Kalinina
Kvitova has a tough opponent in Cirstea who beat her last time out.
Mertens probably loses to Zvonareva
Radacanu loses to Stephens
Vondrousova losing to Hon. None of the above 6 has been playing particularly well.
Outsider to go go go deep. Clara Tauson

Men's seeds
1.  
2. Daniil Medvedev (RUS): +225WON
3. Alexander Zverev (GER): +380WON
4. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE): +3000
5. Andrey Rublev (RUS): +3000WON
6. Rafael Nadal (ESP): +1100WON
7. Matteo Berrettini (ITA): +3500WON
8. Casper Ruud (NOR): +5000
9. Felix Auger-Aliassime (CAN): +4000
10. Hubert Hurkacz (POL): +5000WON
11. Jannik Sinner (ITA): +2500WON
12. Cameron Norrie (GBR): +5000  CALLED THIS ONE
13. Diego Schwartzman (ARG): +13000WON
14. Denis Shapovalov (CAN): +10000WON
15. Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP): +8000WON
16. Cristian Garin (CHI): +40000WON
17. Gael Monfils (FRA): +20000WON
18. Aslan Karatsev (RUS): +10000WON
19. Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP): +10000WON
20. Taylor Fritz (USA): +15000
21. Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO): +8000
22. John Isner (USA): +15000
23. Reilly Opelka (USA): OTBWON
24. Daniel Evans (GBR): +10000
25. Lorenzo Sonego (ITA): +13000
26. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL): +20000WON
27. Marin Cilic (CRO): +15000WON
28. Karen Khachanov (RUS): +10000WON
29. Ugo Humbert (FRA): +8000 UNEXPECTED LOSS
30. Lloyd Harris (RSA): +20000 UNEXPECTED LOSS ? Ridiculous to play no warm up matches
31. Carlos Alcaraz (ESP): +4000WON
32. Alex de Minaur (AUS): +10000
Norrie has a very tough draw against Korda. Could be done first round.
De Minaur playing against Musetti could see an upset.
Basilashvili gets a quick chance at revenge against Murray, who will prob be too strong.

Men's draw: https://ausopen.com/draws#!mens-singles
Women's draw: https://ausopen.com/draws#!womens-singles

Just the one for me today and that's Munar to beat Cilic. It's a bit of a speculative one - Munar rarely wins on hard but he has some nice wins on the surface already this season including beating Anderson who I see as a similar player to Cilic. The other thing that makes me want to fade Cilic is that he picked up a couple of wins last week and might consider that preparation enough for the AO. If that's the case he might not be too bothered about this tournament, plus his decline over the last few years has seen him lose to plenty of players of a similar level to Munar.
 
15pts Munar to beat Cilic @ 3.00 365

Been watching some of the warm ups for the Aussie open. After a seriously long flight, and the Christmas/New Year layoff, players competing in their first match are definitely at risk. Combo of rustiness and jet lag is not a good one.
Jessica Pegula lost two matches in a row (at odds of 1.2 to 10). I fully expected her to beat Garcia today, but she was crap. Had a huge chance in second set, being 0-40 up and could not take any of those chances. Lost the breaker badly, playing too fast, like the match is a sprint.
Raducanu is playing some hideous tennis. US open just a total perfect storm fluke. Rybakina just destroyed her love and one in about 45 minutes. Demolition. In this form she simply can't beat anyone. Rybakina to play Garcia next, and I think she wins this one.
Sabalenka first match lose, Petra Kvitova looks right out of form. Kenin played a reasonably close set and then gave up/collapsed against Kasatkina (bagel in second set).
Francis Tiafoe has started the season badly, losing both his matches this year. Would be staying away from 
Aussie heat is pretty intense, especially for those players living in cooler climates. Someone like Allison van Uytvanck just gets fried out there. Not backable, with little chance of winning a 3 set match.
Some form players that hit the ground running and look good. Clara Tauson, Konteviet, Badosa, Ons Jabuer, Bencic, Kokkinakis is probably good for a couple of match wins in Aussie Open.
 
For tomorrow I do like a couple of upsets.
I think Muguruza loses to ALexandrova.  Kasatkina will beat Mertens.
In Aussie Open qualifying I do like DOlehide and Volynets to win. I think Rebecca Marino also dominates behind a strong serve and wins.
 
Kvitova can't beat Jabeur with her present form, especially if it's a hot day, which will suite the woman from Tunisia
Konteveit will bash Ruse, Bencic similar over Dodin, Samsonova over Parrizas-Dias, Paolini over Davis
Madison Keyes looks in great form, and I expect her to beat Martincova quite easily. My number 1 bet. SHe is a fantastic ball striker, and can beat anyone if slightly tuned in and ready to play.
Would be taking a 5 legged bet of:
Bencic,
Krejcikova,
Keyes,
Konteveit,
Jabeur
all to win at 2.6 to 1.
 
 
 

Katie Boulter to beat Emina Bektas at 1.54 with Pinnacle
Also going for this one, Boulter looked good despite losing against Saville, just another level to the ITF tournaments that Bektas still spends most of her time on. I don't expect a complete crushing, but the conditions should suit Boulter and she's the better player as well. 

As tournaments reach the last four stage, I'm adding a few more outrights. I'm replacing the Paul bet with a bet on Kokkinakis - as I've said before I'm not convinced by him, but at the same time I don't trust Monfils to beat him at such a short price. If Kokkinakis makes the final, the outright price will look good. Ahead of the last ATP Cup semi-final, I'm going to back Spain to take the title. If Canada beat Russia - and I think there's a good chance of that - then the price for Spain to win should drop. I don't have any strong feeling about who'll come out on top in Melbourne, except that Nadal is a vulnerable favourite based on performances so far. Having said that I'm not convinced Ruusuvuori will be able to beat him. Cressy has done well this week and his serve and volley style has caused problems for everyone he's played, so I'm putting a small stake on him.
In Adelaide, I'm already on Barty but I want to cover that with a bet on Rybakina who's in the other half of the draw. She should make the final and I'll be hoping it's against Barty, but if it isn't then at least I'll have an interest in the final. Last of all I'm going back in on Halep in Melbourne as she's still a nice price to win bearing in mind she's favoured to win her semi - perhaps it's to do with her struggles in the last round - and she's more than capable of giving Osaka a match if that's who she meets in the final. If it's Kudermetova, Halep should be the favourite.
 
10pts Kokkinakis to win ATP Adelaide @ 7.08 Betfair Exchange
45pts Spain to win ATP Cup @ 1.89 Betfair Exchange
2pts Cressy to win ATP Melbourne @ 12.27 Betfair Exchange
25pts Rybakina to win WTA Adelaide @ 4.00 Betfair Sportsbook
60pts Halep to win WTA Melbourne Summer Set 1 @ 2.88 Betfair Exchange

Hopefully third time lucky tonight 
Two matches catch my eye in Melbourne and that's Sasnovich v Peterson and Rakhimova v Sorribes Tormo. The first match is a coin toss but my preference is for Sasnovich, who has won three matches cleanly to get to this stage compared to Peterson who has one win which took three sets - Sasnovich also has a good record in Australia. In the second match it's a similar situation as Rakhimova has won three matches without dropping a set whilst Sorribes Tormo went the distance against Haddad Maia in her only match so far. In all honesty, anything could happen in this match but given Sorribes Tormo seems to get involved in a lot of three set matches if this goes all the way as well then Rakhimova will be a shorter price than the one I've taken ahead of the start.
I'm also taking a short price double which looks like it should come in, and that's Vika to beat Hon and Golubic to beat Pattinama Kerkhove. Both players had good wins in the last round and are arguably playing lesser opponents this time around. Hon did beat Kvitova but that seemed to be mostly about Kvitova's errors and although Pattinama Kerkhove won her last match in straight sets she wasn't all that convincing and nearly got taken to a third set from 5-1 up.
Finally I'm taking a couple of outright positions. First up in Adelaide I'm backing Tommy Paul to start the year like he finished the last by winning a title. He plays Daniel next which I think he'll come through and then after that most likely the top seed Monfils, but I don't think he has anything to fear in that one. Monfils has seldom been a consistent player and for most of last season he found wins very difficult to come by, so Paul should have every chance of winning and making it to the last four. At that point it'll either be Kokkinakis or Mikael Ymer for a place in the final followed by Khachanov or maybe Cilic in the title match. I think Paul continues his progression up the rankings this season and a win here will be a good place to start.
I also want to oppose Osaka in Melbourne, so I'm backing Halep in the Summer Set 1 Tournament. She came through her match against Aiava without too much fuss and next she faces compatriot Ruse who she beat last season and I think she comes through that. A slight concern is the quick turnover between matches, but as it's the start of the season a quick turnover shouldn't be so much of a problem. After Ruse she should have the beating of all the other players in her bracket and so she should make the final, where she might face Osaka. However, Osaka has a history of pulling out of tournaments in the latter stages when there's a Grand Slam around the corner and if she picks up any sort of niggle - which must be a possibility after so much time out - then I don't see her trying to play through it.
 
30pts Sasnovich to beat Peterson @ 1.952 Victor
65pts Rakhimova to beat Sorribes Tormo @ 2.60 Victor
10pts Azarenka (vs. Hon) x Golubic (vs. Pattinama Kerkhove) @ 1.55 365
15pts Paul to win ATP Adelaide @ 8.84 Betfair Exchange
35pts Halep to win WTA Melbourne Summer Set 1 @ 3.75 365

Dominic Stricker to beat Jesper De Jong at 1.77 with Unibet
I'd have Stricker as a bigger favorite in this one. He's more talented than De Jong and he's also more of a hard court player than De Jong is. The one match he's already had here was nothing special, but it could prove to be useful given that De Jong hasn't played yet.

Ok so the new season is here and there's a ton of tennis going on down under ahead of the Australian Open. I've always thought it's a time to tread carefully, as there's no form to go on and it's impossible to know who's had a good off-season and who hasn't, but there's still a few WTA spots that look worth an interest.
First off, Saville might be able to push Swiatek in Adelaide. She's a better player than her current ranking suggests and Swiatek still performs best on clay. Also, Swiatek didn't finish last season that well and has changed her coaching situation and that can sometimes be disruptive and require some time to bed in. Hon beat Kvitova yesterday and Aiava also got a good win, so it could be that in testing conditions the home players have an advantage.
I also want to side with Garcia against Sevastova in Melbourne. The odds have this as a coin flip, but I'd have Garcia as a slight favourite. If it weren't for Garcia losing to Sevastova in this part of the world and also her mediocre season last year then I think she would be at least a slight favourite, but this is a new season and Garcia has more upside going forward than Sevastova does.
I'm also trying a treble of shorties that will hopefully come through. Svitolina should be beating Gasanova without to much trouble, especially as motivation should be there to make a good start to the season. Li should get past Sherif and she's one to look out for this season - a Grand Slam run wouldn't surprise me. Sherif prefers clay and Li did well this time last season. Finally, I'll take Golubic to get the better of Davis. Her price is the biggest of the three, but she started last season with a lot of wins and Davis was one of the players she beat in that run.
As an aside, I wouldn't put anyone off betting against Medvedev when he plays De Minaur. He was complaining about the conditions after his loss to Humbert, and after catching the end of that match if things aren't going his way it's entirely possible that he'll start to play like he doesn't care. That can work and can see him fly through service holds with first serve second serves (if that makes sense) but it also leaves him vulnerable to double-faults and so it could also see him being broken very easily. As mentioned above, home players are much more likely to be able to deal with the conditions and so a De Minaur win is more likely than the prices suggest.
15pts Saville to beat Swiatek @ 4.50 365
25pts Garcia to beat Sevastova @ 1.90 365
10pts Svitolina (vs. Gasanova) x Li (vs. Sherif) x Golubic (vs. Davis) @ 2.28 365