Tennis Tips - January 3 - January 9

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Happy New Year everyone and here we go, starting with the ATP Cup!

 

[Foo_Fighter]

Happy New Year folks. Wishing you and your families health. Peace, love, happiness and success. May 2022 be a really good year.

[CzechPunter]

Daria Saville to beat Katie Boulter at 1.54 with Pinnacle

For all the upset potential Boulter typically has, I do not fancy her at all. Saville, formerly Gavrilova, seems highly motivated and full of energy after skipping quite some time due to COVID. Now she's up and running in conditions that suit her and against an opponent that hasn't been too great lately.

[delfino]

For me, is Tsitsipas to beat Diego Swartchsman -or something- @1.72 bet365

Reasoning : I heard Tsitsipas a week ago talking in a Youtube video, and he said that he is now 100% fit after a treatment he received during the off period. He also stated that his target for the new tennis season is a grand slam title.

So, i go with the confident one. 

Good luck punters! I think is value bet

 

[Torque]

9 minutes ago, delfino said:

For me, is Tsitsipas to beat Diego Swartchsman -or something- @1.72 bet365

Reasoning : I heard Tsitsipas a week ago talking in a Youtube video, and he said that he is now 100% fit after a treatment he received during the off period. He also stated that his target for the new tennis season is a grand slam title.

So, i go with the confident one. 

Good luck punters! I think is value bet

 

He can't be 100% fit @delfino If he was he wouldn't have pulled out of his first match at the ATP Cup and his elbow wouldn't be strapped.

[Lorenzi Musetti]

16 minutes ago, delfino said:

For me, is Tsitsipas to beat Diego Swartchsman -or something- @1.72 bet365

Reasoning : I heard Tsitsipas a week ago talking in a Youtube video, and he said that he is now 100% fit after a treatment he received during the off period. He also stated that his target for the new tennis season is a grand slam title.

So, i go with the confident one. 

Good luck punters! I think is value bet

 

He skipped his Match against Hurkacz yesterday because of Elbow problems and its quite possible he won't play tomorrow...and for sure he is not 100% fit yet

[CzechPunter]

Jaqueline Cristian to beat Kaia Kanepi at 2.35 with Unibet

I'm completely happy to chance Cristian at these odds. She was good at the end of the last season, very good in fact. Kanepi finished with a retirement due to an injury and hasn't played for a couple of months, while Cristian was competing with top women and matching most of them well. Kanepi might be way more experienced, but she's bound to decline, so having her as such a big favourite here doesn't make much sense to me.

[Judeksi]

J.Millman to beat T.Kokkinakis at 2.16 with Marathonbet

Thanasi had plenty of wins at the end of last season but most of those came against weaker opponents, he still lost to players like Viola, Horansky, Zuk and O'Connell, all of whose ranking is over 160. I usually trust Millman in these conditions, he's a good hard court player and he fights for every point and is alright mentally compared to Kokkinakis. I think this will be tight and I don't think Kokkinakis is there mentally to win these kind of tight matches yet. He can obviously prove me wrong here but I gotta take Millman with odds over 2.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Judeksi

[Torque]

4 hours ago, Judeksi said:

J.Millman to beat T.Kokkinakis at 2.16 with Marathonbet

Thanasi had plenty of wins at the end of last season but most of those came against weaker opponents, he still lost to players like Viola, Horansky, Zuk and O'Connell, all of whose ranking is over 160. I usually trust Millman in these conditions, he's a good hard court player and he fights for every point and is alright mentally compared to Kokkinakis. I think this will be tight and I don't think Kokkinakis is there mentally to win these kind of tight matches yet. He can obviously prove me wrong here but I gotta take Millman with odds over 2.

Agree with this one. Millman should win through consistency alone. Kokkinakis has plenty of talent, but as you mentioned he often loses to players that aren't as good as him.

[Torque]

Ok so the new season is here and there's a ton of tennis going on down under ahead of the Australian Open. I've always thought it's a time to tread carefully, as there's no form to go on and it's impossible to know who's had a good off-season and who hasn't, but there's still a few WTA spots that look worth an interest.

First off, Saville might be able to push Swiatek in Adelaide. She's a better player than her current ranking suggests and Swiatek still performs best on clay. Also, Swiatek didn't finish last season that well and has changed her coaching situation and that can sometimes be disruptive and require some time to bed in. Hon beat Kvitova yesterday and Aiava also got a good win, so it could be that in testing conditions the home players have an advantage.

I also want to side with Garcia against Sevastova in Melbourne. The odds have this as a coin flip, but I'd have Garcia as a slight favourite. If it weren't for Garcia losing to Sevastova in this part of the world and also her mediocre season last year then I think she would be at least a slight favourite, but this is a new season and Garcia has more upside going forward than Sevastova does.

I'm also trying a treble of shorties that will hopefully come through. Svitolina should be beating Gasanova without to much trouble, especially as motivation should be there to make a good start to the season. Li should get past Sherif and she's one to look out for this season - a Grand Slam run wouldn't surprise me. Sherif prefers clay and Li did well this time last season. Finally, I'll take Golubic to get the better of Davis. Her price is the biggest of the three, but she started last season with a lot of wins and Davis was one of the players she beat in that run.

As an aside, I wouldn't put anyone off betting against Medvedev when he plays De Minaur. He was complaining about the conditions after his loss to Humbert, and after catching the end of that match if things aren't going his way it's entirely possible that he'll start to play like he doesn't care. That can work and can see him fly through service holds with first serve second serves (if that makes sense) but it also leaves him vulnerable to double-faults and so it could also see him being broken very easily. As mentioned above, home players are much more likely to be able to deal with the conditions and so a De Minaur win is more likely than the prices suggest.

15pts Saville to beat Swiatek @ 4.50 365

25pts Garcia to beat Sevastova @ 1.90 365

10pts Svitolina (vs. Gasanova) x Li (vs. Sherif) x Golubic (vs. Davis) @ 2.28 365

[CzechPunter]

Dominic Stricker to beat Jesper De Jong at 1.77 with Unibet

I'd have Stricker as a bigger favorite in this one. He's more talented than De Jong and he's also more of a hard court player than De Jong is. The one match he's already had here was nothing special, but it could prove to be useful given that De Jong hasn't played yet.

[Torque]

16 hours ago, Torque said:

Ok so the new season is here and there's a ton of tennis going on down under ahead of the Australian Open. I've always thought it's a time to tread carefully, as there's no form to go on and it's impossible to know who's had a good off-season and who hasn't, but there's still a few WTA spots that look worth an interest.

First off, Saville might be able to push Swiatek in Adelaide. She's a better player than her current ranking suggests and Swiatek still performs best on clay. Also, Swiatek didn't finish last season that well and has changed her coaching situation and that can sometimes be disruptive and require some time to bed in. Hon beat Kvitova yesterday and Aiava also got a good win, so it could be that in testing conditions the home players have an advantage.

I also want to side with Garcia against Sevastova in Melbourne. The odds have this as a coin flip, but I'd have Garcia as a slight favourite. If it weren't for Garcia losing to Sevastova in this part of the world and also her mediocre season last year then I think she would be at least a slight favourite, but this is a new season and Garcia has more upside going forward than Sevastova does.

I'm also trying a treble of shorties that will hopefully come through. Svitolina should be beating Gasanova without to much trouble, especially as motivation should be there to make a good start to the season. Li should get past Sherif and she's one to look out for this season - a Grand Slam run wouldn't surprise me. Sherif prefers clay and Li did well this time last season. Finally, I'll take Golubic to get the better of Davis. Her price is the biggest of the three, but she started last season with a lot of wins and Davis was one of the players she beat in that run.

As an aside, I wouldn't put anyone off betting against Medvedev when he plays De Minaur. He was complaining about the conditions after his loss to Humbert, and after catching the end of that match if things aren't going his way it's entirely possible that he'll start to play like he doesn't care. That can work and can see him fly through service holds with first serve second serves (if that makes sense) but it also leaves him vulnerable to double-faults and so it could also see him being broken very easily. As mentioned above, home players are much more likely to be able to deal with the conditions and so a De Minaur win is more likely than the prices suggest.

15pts Saville to beat Swiatek @ 4.50 365

25pts Garcia to beat Sevastova @ 1.90 365

10pts Svitolina (vs. Gasanova) x Li (vs. Sherif) x Golubic (vs. Davis) @ 2.28 365

Bad start to the year. Saville was never really in it - had massive problems holding serve, Garcia was a disappointment and Svitolina sunk the treble as a 1.14 favourite with a really poor display where she seemed to be hoping that she could win through errors from Gasanova which never really came. I'm not sure where she is in the betting for the Australian Open, probably somewhere near the top, but based on that performance she's got absolutely no chance. Gasanova went to town on her second serve, which looked a real liability. On top of that, Medvedev destroyed De Minaur - so much for my idea that the conditions could hamper him and Kokkinakis, who I thought would lose to the consistent Millman, won in straights.

[Torque]

Talk of a possible renaissance for Murray looks like it needs to be shelved as well. Losing to Bagnis on a hard court, when Bagnis has less wins on hard in his entire career than I have digits on one hand, has got to be one of the worst results of Murray's career. It wasn't just that he lost, it was the way that he lost. Dropping the first set after creating numerous break point opportunities and then being broken having failed to save the only one he faced, then going a break ahead in the second only to give it back and then finally going behind in the final set and serving to make Bagnis serve for the win, he failed to hold from 40-0. Bagnis finished with a Nadal-esque 11 out of 13 break points saved, whilst Murray saved only 2 out of 6 and that was what decided the match in the end - Bagnis played the big points much better than Murray did, to the point that Murray almost made Bagnis look like Nadal.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, you've got to be wondering about Murray at the moment. Terribly unfortunate, but it is what it is.

[Torque]

There's two I like on the Men's side in Melbourne. Baez is the first and he plays against Ruusuvuori, who broke out a couple of seasons ago but has stagnated slightly since. Baez on the other hand is on a nice upward curve and gave a good account of himself at the Next Gen, which suggests he might not just be a player for clay. The other player I want to take a chance on is Hijikata, who plays against Cressy. Both have come through qualifying by winning two matches, but Hijikata beat better players in Kudla and Laaksonen. Cressy should be the favourite, but he's way too erratic for me and if his serve fails him then Hijikata should have every chance and especially if he can get to grips with Cressy's unorthodox style.

15pts Baez to beat Ruusuvuori @ 2.75 365

20pts Hijikata to beat Cressy @ 3.20 365

[CzechPunter]

Sorana Cirstea to beat Amanda Anisimova at 2.10 with William Hill

Sorana was freerolling it against Gracheva in the previous round and the same flow will see her beat Anisimova here. Obviously, there are no guarantees for that to happen, but I'd have Cirstea as the slight favourite here all things considered. Anisimova doesn't have the best of defensive games.

[Torque]

Sabalenka 18 double-faults  You'd think she'd have worked on her serve since last season finished, but it looks as though some things never change.

[Torque]

Oh and 49 unforced errors in two sets 

Edited January 5, 2022 by Torque

[Torque]

12 hours ago, Torque said:

There's two I like on the Men's side in Melbourne. Baez is the first and he plays against Ruusuvuori, who broke out a couple of seasons ago but has stagnated slightly since. Baez on the other hand is on a nice upward curve and gave a good account of himself at the Next Gen, which suggests he might not just be a player for clay. The other player I want to take a chance on is Hijikata, who plays against Cressy. Both have come through qualifying by winning two matches, but Hijikata beat better players in Kudla and Laaksonen. Cressy should be the favourite, but he's way too erratic for me and if his serve fails him then Hijikata should have every chance and especially if he can get to grips with Cressy's unorthodox style.

15pts Baez to beat Ruusuvuori @ 2.75 365

20pts Hijikata to beat Cressy @ 3.20 365

Another washout unfortunately. Baez dropped a close first set against Ruusuvuori and then fell behind straight away in the second and never recovered - work for Baez to do on hard as Ruusuvuori was a worthy winner. Hijikata never turned up against Cressy and was on the back foot immediately when he was broken in his opening service game, and from there it turned into a bit of a horror show with Cressy dishing out a second set bagel and covering an 8.5 game line which I couldn't even see prices for given it was so unlikely. It's impossible to legislate for that kind of underperformance from any player and the only protection against it is other bets where players do perform as expected,

[four-leaf]

18 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Yeah, you've got to be wondering about Murray at the moment. Terribly unfortunate, but it is what it is.

Murray is more to fade or stay away nowadays

[CzechPunter]

 

[Torque]

Hopefully third time lucky tonight 

Two matches catch my eye in Melbourne and that's Sasnovich v Peterson and Rakhimova v Sorribes Tormo. The first match is a coin toss but my preference is for Sasnovich, who has won three matches cleanly to get to this stage compared to Peterson who has one win which took three sets - Sasnovich also has a good record in Australia. In the second match it's a similar situation as Rakhimova has won three matches without dropping a set whilst Sorribes Tormo went the distance against Haddad Maia in her only match so far. In all honesty, anything could happen in this match but given Sorribes Tormo seems to get involved in a lot of three set matches if this goes all the way as well then Rakhimova will be a shorter price than the one I've taken ahead of the start.

I'm also taking a short price double which looks like it should come in, and that's Vika to beat Hon and Golubic to beat Pattinama Kerkhove. Both players had good wins in the last round and are arguably playing lesser opponents this time around. Hon did beat Kvitova but that seemed to be mostly about Kvitova's errors and although Pattinama Kerkhove won her last match in straight sets she wasn't all that convincing and nearly got taken to a third set from 5-1 up.

Finally I'm taking a couple of outright positions. First up in Adelaide I'm backing Tommy Paul to start the year like he finished the last by winning a title. He plays Daniel next which I think he'll come through and then after that most likely the top seed Monfils, but I don't think he has anything to fear in that one. Monfils has seldom been a consistent player and for most of last season he found wins very difficult to come by, so Paul should have every chance of winning and making it to the last four. At that point it'll either be Kokkinakis or Mikael Ymer for a place in the final followed by Khachanov or maybe Cilic in the title match. I think Paul continues his progression up the rankings this season and a win here will be a good place to start.

I also want to oppose Osaka in Melbourne, so I'm backing Halep in the Summer Set 1 Tournament. She came through her match against Aiava without too much fuss and next she faces compatriot Ruse who she beat last season and I think she comes through that. A slight concern is the quick turnover between matches, but as it's the start of the season a quick turnover shouldn't be so much of a problem. After Ruse she should have the beating of all the other players in her bracket and so she should make the final, where she might face Osaka. However, Osaka has a history of pulling out of tournaments in the latter stages when there's a Grand Slam around the corner and if she picks up any sort of niggle - which must be a possibility after so much time out - then I don't see her trying to play through it.

 

30pts Sasnovich to beat Peterson @ 1.952 Victor

65pts Rakhimova to beat Sorribes Tormo @ 2.60 Victor

10pts Azarenka (vs. Hon) x Golubic (vs. Pattinama Kerkhove) @ 1.55 365

15pts Paul to win ATP Adelaide @ 8.84 Betfair Exchange

35pts Halep to win WTA Melbourne Summer Set 1 @ 3.75 365

Edited January 6, 2022 by Torque

[CzechPunter]

Was looking to pile up on Kokkinakis, but I was hoping for something like 1.80 against Ymer. The current odds aren't quite there for me, despite his good form and the fact that he has everyone behind him. 

[Torque]

Each to their own @CzechPunter but I think you've had a result leaving Kokkinakis alone. He's inconsistent, injury prone and has flattered to deceive for years now. A couple of decent wins at this tournament doesn't change anything for me - I'd want to see some good results for a much longer spell of time. If anything, Ymer at odds against is appealing. He at least has been making steady upward progress the last few years.

[CzechPunter]

Well, not a good start for either of us @Torque, but that's just how it goes sometimes. We had a really good year in 2021, so I reckon a downswing had to come at some point. Don't see much in the early odds, but will check back later.

[liquidglass]

12 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Was looking to pile up on Kokkinakis, but I was hoping for something like 1.80 against Ymer. The current odds aren't quite there for me, despite his good form and the fact that he has everyone behind him. 

A good bet is always about trying to sense the right time or period to invest in an upward trend. Despite what has happened to Kokkinakis in the past, this is the beginning of the season and at least it looks like he will hold up physically till the end of this very tournament. We also know what his ability is when on song. I think he is a very attractive bet. Happy New Year all!

[Torque]

20 hours ago, Torque said:

Hopefully third time lucky tonight 

Two matches catch my eye in Melbourne and that's Sasnovich v Peterson and Rakhimova v Sorribes Tormo. The first match is a coin toss but my preference is for Sasnovich, who has won three matches cleanly to get to this stage compared to Peterson who has one win which took three sets - Sasnovich also has a good record in Australia. In the second match it's a similar situation as Rakhimova has won three matches without dropping a set whilst Sorribes Tormo went the distance against Haddad Maia in her only match so far. In all honesty, anything could happen in this match but given Sorribes Tormo seems to get involved in a lot of three set matches if this goes all the way as well then Rakhimova will be a shorter price than the one I've taken ahead of the start.

I'm also taking a short price double which looks like it should come in, and that's Vika to beat Hon and Golubic to beat Pattinama Kerkhove. Both players had good wins in the last round and are arguably playing lesser opponents this time around. Hon did beat Kvitova but that seemed to be mostly about Kvitova's errors and although Pattinama Kerkhove won her last match in straight sets she wasn't all that convincing and nearly got taken to a third set from 5-1 up.

Finally I'm taking a couple of outright positions. First up in Adelaide I'm backing Tommy Paul to start the year like he finished the last by winning a title. He plays Daniel next which I think he'll come through and then after that most likely the top seed Monfils, but I don't think he has anything to fear in that one. Monfils has seldom been a consistent player and for most of last season he found wins very difficult to come by, so Paul should have every chance of winning and making it to the last four. At that point it'll either be Kokkinakis or Mikael Ymer for a place in the final followed by Khachanov or maybe Cilic in the title match. I think Paul continues his progression up the rankings this season and a win here will be a good place to start.

I also want to oppose Osaka in Melbourne, so I'm backing Halep in the Summer Set 1 Tournament. She came through her match against Aiava without too much fuss and next she faces compatriot Ruse who she beat last season and I think she comes through that. A slight concern is the quick turnover between matches, but as it's the start of the season a quick turnover shouldn't be so much of a problem. After Ruse she should have the beating of all the other players in her bracket and so she should make the final, where she might face Osaka. However, Osaka has a history of pulling out of tournaments in the latter stages when there's a Grand Slam around the corner and if she picks up any sort of niggle - which must be a possibility after so much time out - then I don't see her trying to play through it.

 

30pts Sasnovich to beat Peterson @ 1.952 Victor

65pts Rakhimova to beat Sorribes Tormo @ 2.60 Victor

10pts Azarenka (vs. Hon) x Golubic (vs. Pattinama Kerkhove) @ 1.55 365

15pts Paul to win ATP Adelaide @ 8.84 Betfair Exchange

35pts Halep to win WTA Melbourne Summer Set 1 @ 3.75 365

Sasnovich and Rakhimova won, as did Vika and Golubic for the double. Paul and Halep also made it to the next round; Halep convincingly and Paul less so. A fortunate day 

I seem to be in the minority about Kokkinakis - fingers crossed he wins for those backing him.

[Torque]

Things start to get quieter now as tournaments head towards their conclusions, but there's still a few bets I like the look of. First of all I want to add some cover to my Paul outright bet in Adelaide by backing Khachanov from the other half of the draw - that way a Paul-Khachanov final would guarantee a return. I've gone for Khachanov because I can't see him losing to Gerasimov in his next match and then after that he'll probably play Cilic for a place in the final. Cilic has been in decline for a couple of seasons now, so you'd fancy Khachanov to win that and make the final. I'm also going to dip my toe into the ATP Cup, by backing both underdogs in the outright market. I don't think there's all that much between the remaining teams and Canada in particular have played well, particularly in knocking out Germany in the last round. 

I'm also taking Barty to prevail in Adelaide, as I think she's the one to beat in home conditions. That said, she has a tricky match next up against Kenin who beat her in the AO a couple of years ago. It's fair to say though that Kenin isn't operating at that level just now and so Barty should find a way to win like she did against Gauff in the last round. After that she would play either Vika or Swiatek and from my perspective hopefully Swiatek who I'm still not convinced by on hard courts. The final - if she makes it that far - could turn out to be the easiest match to win to take the title, as the other half of the draw is the weakest one. I'm sure Barty wouldn't mind facing Rogers in the final, after losing to her at the US Open last season.

Over in Melbourne, it looks as though all the remaining players have a realistic chance of taking the title but I'm going to take a punt on Tauson because of her strong record in tournaments like this during last season. There's also a single in Melbourne that I want to play which is Anisimova to beat Begu. Anisimova should kick on this season after a disrupted couple of years and this is a winnable match against a veteran who plays best on clay, despite some good recent results on hard. I'd have Anisimova as a slightly bigger favourite for this and so I think she's worth backing.

 

30pts Khachanov to win ATP Adelaide @ 4.33 Betfair Sportsbook

10pts Canada to win ATP Cup @ 4.50 Betfair Sportsbook

10pts Poland to win ATP Cup @ 6.50 365

20pts Barty to win WTA Adelaide @ 2.80 Betfair Sportsbook

25pts Tauson to win WTA Melbourne Summer Set 2 @ 4.33 Betfair Sportsbook

40pts Anisimova to beat Begu @ 1.62 Boylesports

 

[CzechPunter]

Keeping my powder dry so far, but I'll check the odds later on again.