Tennis Tips - April 4 - April 10

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Linda Fruhvirtova to beat Ana Konjuh at 2.00 with Bet365

I don't trust Fruhvirtova to be a strong favorite yet, but she's the underdog against Konjuh, who was struggling physically in her most recent matches and who's on a poor streak in any case. Fruhvirtova will have to calm down from all the adrenaline, but, if she does, she will beat Konjuh I feel. At 2.00, this looks worth a shot to me.

[raduvlad1995]

well there were a couple of great weeks there, reached 5k in Miami and now it's a weird feeling to have just atp 250 tourneys for betting, guess monte carlo is almost here. Any players you guys expect good things from this week in houston or marakech ?

[rainz]

I got Djere at @1.7 against Lehecka, Lehecka showed up awful at the start of clay season, on the other hand clay is the favorite surface for Djere and he always show good fight there.

[neilovan]

2 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

well there were a couple of great weeks there, reached 5k in Miami and now it's a weird feeling to have just atp 250 tourneys for betting, guess monte carlo is almost here. Any players you guys expect good things from this week in houston or marakech ?

I tend to bet slightly smaller in the ATP 250 level events. Just one bet today a mixture of tennis , some cricket and Arsenal later. I think on a slow day, sometimes the best is not to go looking for trouble and dig yourself a hole. So for me, a small bet; 

Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson . Wolf on a stinker of a run and Brooksby comfortable here.

Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia  . Begu should be too good. 

Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra  .  Kvitova to play like we expect and win comfortably here. 

 

Not crazy about many of the other low priced favorites.

[Foo_Fighter]

18 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Linda Fruhvirtova to beat Ana Konjuh at 2.00 with Bet365

I don't trust Fruhvirtova to be a strong favorite yet, but she's the underdog against Konjuh, who was struggling physically in her most recent matches and who's on a poor streak in any case. Fruhvirtova will have to calm down from all the adrenaline, but, if she does, she will beat Konjuh I feel. At 2.00, this looks worth a shot to me.

Linda delivers ?

[CzechPunter]

Sloane Stephens to beat Qinwen Zheng at 1.74 with Pinnacle

Stephens has always done reasonably well in Charleston and there's good crowd support out there this week, with even Heather Watson receiving a lot of cheers in the qualifying match against Eikeri. Not what you typically see, but, if it works in anyone's favour here, it has to be Stephens. Zheng is rising overall and she has more potential than the American going forward, but she's never played on this strange clay before, so she has two challenges to beat. Also, she has gone slightly off the boil after the strong showing during the Australian swing.

[neilovan]

19 hours ago, neilovan said:

I tend to bet slightly smaller in the ATP 250 level events. Just one bet today a mixture of tennis , some cricket and Arsenal later. I think on a slow day, sometimes the best is not to go looking for trouble and dig yourself a hole. So for me, a small bet; 

Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson . Wolf on a stinker of a run and Brooksby comfortable here.

Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia  . Begu should be too good. 

Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra  .  Kvitova to play like we expect and win comfortably here. 

 

Not crazy about many of the other low priced favorites.

Finally, one of runners quits when behind. Thanks Kvitova.

[raduvlad1995]

20 hours ago, neilovan said:

I tend to bet slightly smaller in the ATP 250 level events. Just one bet today a mixture of tennis , some cricket and Arsenal later. I think on a slow day, sometimes the best is not to go looking for trouble and dig yourself a hole. So for me, a small bet; 

Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson . Wolf on a stinker of a run and Brooksby comfortable here.

Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia  . Begu should be too good. 

Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra  .  Kvitova to play like we expect and win comfortably here. 

 

Not crazy about many of the other low priced favorites.

you think brooksby can handle clay well ? I mean yeah wolf probably ain t great either but still

[neilovan]

36 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

you think brooksby can handle clay well ? I mean yeah wolf probably ain t great either but still

I wish I could give you a definitive answer. Wolf has been losing matches, most of them quite close. Brooksby on a better run of form. This was just a very small bet for me but I still have 2 legs outstanding (Brooksby and IPL today);

 

Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.19

Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia 2-Way Odds (12) - 2WON1.39

Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra   2-Way Odds (12) - 2VOID1.30

Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Two way - 2WON1.65

Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Two way - 12.05

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal FC Totals 2.5 - oWON2.1

 

Looking at today's matches I see squat.  Software liked Brengle to beat McNally and Riske to beat Navvaro. If I had to pick a couple of matches to go with those two I would be going with Jordan Thompson and Tommy Paul to also win. 

If I had to go long shots, I would be looking at Dzumhur to beat Vavassori and Kotov to beat Versasco (both suspended from yesterday - Marrakech). I would be betting both of these as singles, and I think at least one of them wins.

 

 

[raduvlad1995]

35 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I wish I could give you a definitive answer. Wolf has been losing matches, most of them quite close. Brooksby on a better run of form. This was just a very small bet for me but I still have 2 legs outstanding (Brooksby and IPL today);

 

Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.19

Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia 2-Way Odds (12) - 2WON1.39

Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra   2-Way Odds (12) - 2VOID1.30

Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Two way - 2WON1.65

Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Two way - 12.05

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal FC Totals 2.5 - oWON2.1

 

Looking at today's matches I see squat.  Software liked Brengle to beat McNally and Riske to beat Navvaro. If I had to pick a couple of matches to go with those two I would be going with Jordan Thompson and Tommy Paul to also win. 

If I had to go long shots, I would be looking at Dzumhur to beat Vavassori and Kotov to beat Versasco (both suspended from yesterday - Marrakech). I would be betting both of these as singles, and I think at least one of them wins.

 

 

opinion on kyrgios-mackie mc donald ? I think mackie is prety solid on clay and nick's serve wouldn t be that much of an weapone here, nvm that his body might not hold up

[neilovan]

4 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

opinion on kyrgios-mackie mc donald ? I think mackie is prety solid on clay and nick's serve wouldn t be that much of an weapone here, nvm that his body might not hold up

I'm not touching Kyrigos. I think he has a lot of talent, but is just too prone to irrational behavior. Just too emotional for me, and I would rather try elsewhere. My feeling is that he will already be bored and looking forward to going home. He's been on the road at least 6 weeks. Would not surprise me if he tanked this match.

Bizarre that both longshots won;

Dzumhur to beat Vavassori and Kotov to beat Versasco 

Edited April 5, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

8 hours ago, neilovan said:

I wish I could give you a definitive answer. Wolf has been losing matches, most of them quite close. Brooksby on a better run of form. This was just a very small bet for me but I still have 2 legs outstanding (Brooksby and IPL today);

 

Wolf, Jeffrey John vs Brooksby, Jenson 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.19 

Wang, Xinyu vs Begu, Irina-Camelia 2-Way Odds (12) - 2WON1.39

Frech, Magdalena vs Kvitova, Petra   2-Way Odds (12) - 2VOID1.30

Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Lucknow Super Giants Two way - 2WON1.65

Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Two way - 12.05

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal FC Totals 2.5 - oWON2.1

 

And a double explosion as Brooksby goes belly up, and the Royals lose when they should have won. Oh, well, small bet ...

[rainz]

I will give a try to McDonald @2.6. McDonald is decent clay-court player, you can't say that about Kyrgios. In my opinion he is overvalued due the recent nice results on hard. Its last tournament for Kyrgios to fly back home. Clay, he hate it, I dont think that he will be super fighting for win he got already satisfying run, most likely he give a try to clay to test it and finish the US trip.

[raduvlad1995]

8 hours ago, rainz said:

I will give a try to McDonald @2.6. McDonald is decent clay-court player, you can't say that about Kyrgios. In my opinion he is overvalued due the recent nice results on hard. Its last tournament for Kyrgios to fly back home. Clay, he hate it, I dont think that he will be super fighting for win he got already satisfying run, most likely he give a try to clay to test it and finish the US trip.

kyrgios ain t bad on clay actualy, he's good on all surfaces when he focuses. I mean yes, clay is his last favorite but he ain t bad on it. 

[CzechPunter]

Sara Errani (+1.5 sets) to beat Dayana Yastremska at 1.85 with Unibet

It's been quite a while since I last backed Errani, but this looks like a good opportunity to me. Sure, Yastremska has the right sort of power to blow Errani off the court in the ideal circumstances and that's reflected in the odds. However, she's been all over the place for months now and Errani will make her play that one extra shot or even two extra shots, which means two extra chances for her to make an unforced error. Indoors, this would be a complete no-starter, but I'm happy to risk in on clay (even though on one quite a bit above the sea level).

[raduvlad1995]

musetti- taberner and djere jaziri opinions ? I believe djere should 100% win that match he has all that he needs against jaziri on clay, and unfortunately I don t know much about taberner , but shouldn t musetti on clay be skilled enough to win that ? his odds are high and worth a shot IMO.

[CzechPunter]

Djere should definitely win, but betting on 1.12 in Marrakech isn't something I would want to do.

[CzechPunter]

Well, Errani did have two set balls?.

[CzechPunter]

Anhelina Kalinina to beat Alize Cornet at 2.00 with 1xBet (odds just being released)

If you can get anything above 1.80+ on Kalinina, I think it's completely worth it. She's been on fire recently and beating Sasnovich and Rybakina back-to-back is way more impressive than beating Parks and Baptiste. Cornet has done relatively little of note in previous tournaments as well - watched her against Riske and she was a mess.

 

[Torque]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Anhelina Kalinina to beat Alize Cornet at 2.00 with 1xBet (odds just being released)

If you can get anything above 1.80+ on Kalinina, I think it's completely worth it. She's been on fire recently and beating Sasnovich and Rybakina back-to-back is way more impressive than beating Parks and Baptiste. Cornet has done relatively little of note in previous tournaments as well - watched her against Riske and she was a mess.

 

I'm very surprised you're using that bookmaker.

[raduvlad1995]

3 hours ago, Torque said:

I'm very surprised you're using that bookmaker.

are 1xbet a russian site ?

[raduvlad1995]

federico coria over basic IMO, definetly a better claycourter that plays consistent tennis.

[CzechPunter]

I'm not, I used a local one instead, but I always prefer saying at least something available than nothing at all. Was more like an early notice than anything. Now 2.00 at Pinnacle, way preferable.

[Torque]

7 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

are 1xbet a russian site ?

As I understand it yes - although it's seldom a clear cut thing.

[CzechPunter]

Kalinina gets the win, but it was quite rough!

[neilovan]

Some matches that I like today. 

Coria v Gasquet.  Coria will have some characteristics in his game, that you can derive from his homeland. Probably grew up developing and playing game at sea level and on clay court. SO you know, solid, if unspectacular serve, fit and strong, clay court specialist. On a grass court  he gets blitzed, but on clay, a very tough opponent. I expect him to triumph over Gasquet here.

In the WTA I think Irena Bara beats Rakhimova. Rakhimova young, and not in great form, losing 3 of her last 4 tournaments in 1st round. For me a close match.

Musetti v Laslo Djere. Djere has given Musetti a lot of problems in games they have played. The last 3 meetings have all gone 3 sets and been very close. I don't think there is much between these two, but Musetti definitely has clay court pedigree. I expect a tough match going over 22.5 games  (1.9). 

My two low priced bets would be Jabeur to beat Vandeweghe and Fritz to beat Garin. Will take them as a quad with Musetti over 22.5 games, and Coria win.

WIll take Bara as a small stake single.

 

 

 

[Robinnho]

42 minutes ago, neilovan said:

My two low priced bets would be Jabeur to beat Vandeweghe and Fritz to beat Garin. Will take them as a quad with Musetti over 22.5 games, and Coria win.

WIll take Bara as a small stake single.

 

 

 

Jabeur to beat Kalinina OR Anisimova to beat Vandeweghe?

Edited April 8, 2022 by Robinnho

[CzechPunter]

I wouldn't take either myself, honestly, Vandeweghe is living a charmed life in Charleston and Kalinina is on a superb run as well. Obviously they are a fair bit worse than Jabeur/Anisimova, but the odds just don't work for me, even though I'm not against short odds in principle. With Kalinina, I think she can spring up a surprise if she's on. With Anisimova, I'm afraid she can have one of her meltdowns.

[neilovan]

3 hours ago, Robinnho said:

Jabeur to beat Kalinina OR Anisimova to beat Vandeweghe?

Sorry, my mind is like a scrambled egg at the moment. I think Jabeur is well on the comeback road. She was very suspect a few weeks ago, but is finding her groove. For me vandeweghe is probably not 100% match fit. May feel some serious aches and pains after 5 matches in a week. SO it is Jabeur over Kalinina and Anismova over Coco. I think clay (especially green), is probably a perfect surface for Jabeur, and CHarleston is the only tourn that uses it.

Actually went this way in the end...

Coria, Federico vs Gasquet, Richard 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.52

Garin, Cristian vs Fritz, Taylor 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.30

Jabeur, Ons vs Kalinina, Anhelina 2-Way Odds (12) - 11.31

Musetti, Lorenzo vs Djere, Laslo Totals number of games 22.5 - o1.88

Edited April 8, 2022 by neilovan