Tennis Tips - January 10 - January 16

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Sofia Kenin to beat Daria Kasatkina at 1.97 with Pinnacle

Not having Kasatkina as the favorite here at all. She played well last week, only falling to Barty, which is no shame at all. Kasatkina was absolutely flat against Anisimova and her serve variation is ridiculous at the moment, she's throwing in a lot of easy serves for players to just put away, which Anisimova was doing all match long. Kenin could be on the same track and I'd have her 1.70 tops.

[CzechPunter]

Missed opportunities really costing Kenin there...Australia still beyond me!

Christopher O'Connell to beat Sebastian Baez at 1.83 with Boylesports

O'Connell has been performing admirably so far this year. He choked against Thompson in the end, but has won 4 sets in a row since then against admirable opposition. Baez is still more of a clay courter and has had to play much longer qualifying matches. He even had a reasonably tough time against an unknown in the first qualifying round, where he wasn't able to dominate as much as he'd like to.

[CzechPunter]

Katie Boulter to beat Emina Bektas at 1.54 with Pinnacle

Also going for this one, Boulter looked good despite losing against Saville, just another level to the ITF tournaments that Bektas still spends most of her time on. I don't expect a complete crushing, but the conditions should suit Boulter and she's the better player as well. 

[CzechPunter]

@Robinho@TorqueAny bets you having?

[Torque]

Just looking now @CzechPunter Agree about O'Connell btw.

[Torque]

Having had a look at all the cards, I'm going to back Lajovic against Davidovich Fokina in Sydney, purely because I can't see why Lajovic is such a big dog. Both players haven't got good results on hard recently and both have had struggles with fitness and injuries, but in the plus column for Lajovic is that he's had some matches this season whereas this will be the first match of the year for Davidovich Fokina and also that Lajovic won the last time they played each other.

I'm also going to back Davis to beat Teichmann in Adelaide. Similarly to Davidovich Fokina, Teichmann hasn't yet played this season and so there's no yardstick for what her level might be. Davis isn't the greatest player and she wasn't very impressive in qualifying for the main draw, but at least she has some wins behind her and one thing she doesn't lack is heart. She'll leave everything out on the court and that could be enough to get the win, particularly if Teichmann is rusty and below par.

 

35pts Lajovic to beat Davidovich Fokina @ 2.63 Betfair Sportsbook

25pts Davis to beat Teichmann @ 3.00 365

[CzechPunter]

Nothing going right at the moment, O'Connell failing to convert his BPs and then losing the TB and Boulter playing like a complete amateur...well, it was like this in the last season as well and no worries in the end, so let's hope for another turnaround asap!

Elias Ymer to beat Mario Martinez Vilella at 1.65 with Pinnacle

Remember back when MMV was doing a lot of damage against better players last year? Well, he finished the season on a real low and it's still impossible to say if he's improved or not, since beating Dudi Sela means nothing nowadays. Ymer has a legitimate win over Kovalik and should have the fitness advantage as well.

[Torque]

7 hours ago, Torque said:

Just looking now @CzechPunter Agree about O'Connell btw.

That was a tough loss. Final set breakers going against you are always the worst way to lose. It evens out though - eventually 

[neilovan]

Been watching some of the warm ups for the Aussie open. After a seriously long flight, and the Christmas/New Year layoff, players competing in their first match are definitely at risk. Combo of rustiness and jet lag is not a good one.

Jessica Pegula lost two matches in a row (at odds of 1.2 to 10). I fully expected her to beat Garcia today, but she was crap. Had a huge chance in second set, being 0-40 up and could not take any of those chances. Lost the breaker badly, playing too fast, like the match is a sprint.

Raducanu is playing some hideous tennis. US open just a total perfect storm fluke. Rybakina just destroyed her love and one in about 45 minutes. Demolition. In this form she simply can't beat anyone. Rybakina to play Garcia next, and I think she wins this one.

Sabalenka first match lose, Petra Kvitova looks right out of form. Kenin played a reasonably close set and then gave up/collapsed against Kasatkina (bagel in second set).

Francis Tiafoe has started the season badly, losing both his matches this year. Would be staying away from 

Aussie heat is pretty intense, especially for those players living in cooler climates. Someone like Allison van Uytvanck just gets fried out there. Not backable, with little chance of winning a 3 set match.

Some form players that hit the ground running and look good. Clara Tauson, Konteviet, Badosa, Ons Jabuer, Bencic, Kokkinakis is probably good for a couple of match wins in Aussie Open.

 

For tomorrow I do like a couple of upsets.

I think Muguruza loses to ALexandrova.  Kasatkina will beat Mertens.

In Aussie Open qualifying I do like DOlehide and Volynets to win. I think Rebecca Marino also dominates behind a strong serve and wins.

 

Kvitova can't beat Jabeur with her present form, especially if it's a hot day, which will suite the woman from Tunisia

Konteveit will bash Ruse, Bencic similar over Dodin, Samsonova over Parrizas-Dias, Paolini over Davis

Madison Keyes looks in great form, and I expect her to beat Martincova quite easily. My number 1 bet. SHe is a fantastic ball striker, and can beat anyone if slightly tuned in and ready to play.

Would be taking a 5 legged bet of:

Bencic,

Krejcikova,

Keyes,

Konteveit,

Jabeur

all to win at 2.6 to 1.

 

 

 

Edited January 11, 2022 by neilovan

[Lorenzi Musetti]

I agree with Kvitova, she looks like crap in her matches and she got problems with hot conditions in the past. Jabeur is the better player but had never won a set against kvitova in three matches. It won't be easy for Jabeur.

[Torque]

18 hours ago, Torque said:

35pts Lajovic to beat Davidovich Fokina @ 2.63 Betfair Sportsbook

25pts Davis to beat Teichmann @ 3.00 365

Both winners but plenty of luck involved. Lajovic somehow won the first set of his match despite facing numerous break points and Davis won despite Teichmann serving for a straight sets win. The bad luck will come eventually so might as well enjoy the good while it's here.

[CzechPunter]

Well, seems like I need to recuperate a bit before the Aussie open and think things through...will be back with a full preview though!

[Torque]

Just the one for me today and that's Munar to beat Cilic. It's a bit of a speculative one - Munar rarely wins on hard but he has some nice wins on the surface already this season including beating Anderson who I see as a similar player to Cilic. The other thing that makes me want to fade Cilic is that he picked up a couple of wins last week and might consider that preparation enough for the AO. If that's the case he might not be too bothered about this tournament, plus his decline over the last few years has seen him lose to plenty of players of a similar level to Munar.

 

15pts Munar to beat Cilic @ 3.00 365

[neilovan]

Bencic,

Krejcikova,

Keyes Win

Konteveit Win

Jabeur Win

all to win at 2.6 to 1. 

Looking OK so far. Krejcikova and Bencic playing at moment, with rain delay. Krejcikova cruising, Bencic back from a set down and 5-4 down to be leading 5-6. Pity, as she was on a roll, but maybe they would have taken a break after the second set.

[CzechPunter]

Looking good enough! Ymer got the job done in the end as well, so perhaps not all is that bad!

[Torque]

Should have put up Monteiro. Least surprising retirement from Monfils ever 

[Torque]

15 hours ago, Torque said:

15pts Munar to beat Cilic @ 3.00 365

Munar was never really in it, despite a close first set. Cilic was always in control and Munar would have been practically stealing if he'd managed to win.