andrewcalo

We almost won it last time, and would have if the blind ref hadn't sent our man off (red card was later rescinded).
Don't pay to much attention to the press conference in this case - Carvalhal is rotating the squad because he's a new manager trying to get a fix on a first team he likes.
I said at least a draw last time so I'm on that again.
And the Liberty Stadium is not an easy place to get a result on a cold South Wales night.

So taking into account all things, I am putting this ACCA down:
 
Swansea
Wigan
Cardiff
Stevenage +1
Shrewsbury +1
Carlisle +1
 
Courtesy of @betcatalog
Marseille and O 2.5
Nice Monaco BTTS
 
Total odds 675. Worth a quid.
 
Of course there might be more than 4 home wins, and that mucks it up for us, but this is kind of the logic behind big ACCa betting - you are taking a huge risk anyway. Might as well stake your hand on some consistent system and the risk will land once every while.
ATM it is landing for me once a month lol.

So taking into account all things, I am putting this ACCA down:
 
Swansea
Wigan
Cardiff
Stevenage +1
Shrewsbury +1
Carlisle +1
 
Courtesy of @betcatalog
Marseille and O 2.5
Nice Monaco BTTS
 
Total odds 675. Worth a quid.
 
Of course there might be more than 4 home wins, and that mucks it up for us, but this is kind of the logic behind big ACCa betting - you are taking a huge risk anyway. Might as well stake your hand on some consistent system and the risk will land once every while.
ATM it is landing for me once a month lol.

Wednesday team:
dawson(3rd choice keeper)
hunt venancio o'grady (u23 player) nielsson (u23 player) fox
butterfield jones boyd
nuhiu mattias
8 changes from Friday-3 kids in defence
anyone's game

I don't ascribe anything to that...in a year in which the favorites were all away or all at home, what would the numbers tell you? There is so much variance from round to round, year to year. Actually, people have said the same to me about what I do, and I agree that past trends don't predict future results (as they say with regard to stocks). But public perception is pretty consistent, and pretty consistently wrong, and odds, which reflect public perception, fall into certain patterns. For example, I've started quantifying seasonal tendencies, such as the first weeks after the winter break...but they're still based on odds, rather than roulette (if black wins ten times in a row, it has to win red now!).

glen loovens is suspended for sheffield wednesday after being sent off on friday.
Wednesday performed well and contrary to my pessimism and slurs about their commitment, they battled well.
Luhukay seems to have them organised and played three centre backs on friday. Connor o'grady may come in for loovens.
luhukay said one young player may start tonight-clare and thorniley were other possibles but are cup tied.
Wednesday still have alot of injuries and i think this will be close. I backed the draw earlier in the week as it was nearly 4/1
but do not have a strong opinion.
 

By the way, if you just look at odds in the replay, it looks a bit different. Here's the record of away dogs to a favorite of under 2.00 in the round of 32, sorted by away odds level:
Up to 3.99 0-0-3
4.0 to 4.99 2-5-5
5.0 to 5.99 0-1-6 (Carlisle). The one draw was Crystal Palace 5.85, lost at Stoke 4-1 in ET in 2013.
6.0 to 7.99 2-0-6 (Shrews, Stevenage). The two wins were Kidderminster and Sutton, as noted above.
8.0 and up 0-2-6 (Fleetwood). The two draws were Droylsden 8.1 at Orient, lost 8-2 after ET, Reading 13.22 beat Liverpool in ET, both in 2010.
Carlisle and Stevenage are in the group of sides that have gone 2-0-0 (3-3-1 overall) in this situation. Shrews are in a group that have gone 0-1-9, 0-1-3 or some such, depending on how you sort it.

Cardiff are currently priced at 2.13. Mansfield got the draw as a huge dog of 7.05 in the first match. Let's sort this one two ways.
Mansfield have the second highest odds among sides who don't face a prohibitive favorite  of 2.00 or less in the replay. The home sides of better than 3.00 in this group have gone 5-4-4 (1-1-2 in the round of 32).
They are also among the sides in this group that had the highest odds away in the first match (7.05). Sides that were above 6.00 away in the first match and then played a side away of over 2.00 odds went 2-3-1 in the replay, 1-2-1 in the round 32.
This seems like a crapshoot. Swerve.

Shrewsbury belongs to a group where they managed a draw at home in a match where the opponent's odds were over 2.0. Using all of these matches, the away dogs in the replay went 2-5-15 if their odds were greater than 5.00, but 1-4-4 if their odds were greater than 5.80 and just 0-1-3 if their odds were greater than 6.00 (Shrews are currently 6.83). However, in the round of 32, they've gone 0-1-9 (they went 0-3-3 in round of 64 matches). I would swerve, because history suggests that as the field gets winnowed, the minnows do less well.
There's one other way to sort the data...among all the first matches where neither side was even money or better, there are a group (which includes Shrews) that had odds of greater than 3.00 at home, meaning their opponents weren't huge favorites with odds in the 2.01 to 2.30 range or so. Sides with odds away of greater than 5.00 went 1-3-11, those with odds of greater than 6.00 went 0-1-3. Swerve.

I'm not sure I have any thoughts, but I do have numbers.
I spent some time isolating the FA Cup replays from the larger database of FA Cup matches. I'll post as I go through it...I'm home in bed, medicated, after throwing out my back somehow.
So here's a rhetorical question: You managed a draw at home as an underdog to a prohibitive favorite (odds 2.00 or under). In the replay, you're away and now a bigger underdog: Today, you're Stevenage and Carlisle.
My data goes back to 2010-11. There have been seven previous matches where the dog is under 6.5 away (the three dogs with even higher odds lost and didn't score).
Everton (6.30) drew at Chelsea, won on penalties in 2011 in the round of 16. Two premier squads, maybe not a huge surprise.
Sutton (6.23) beat AFC Wimbledon 3-1 last season in the round of 32.
Kidderminster (6.21) won at Peterborough 3-2 in 2014 in the round of 32.
Redbridge (5.81) drew at Oxford City, won in ET in 2014 in the round of 128.
Woking (5.66) won 3-0 at Bury this year in the round of 128.
Notts County (5.62) lost 2-0 at Peterborough last season in the round of 64.
Lincoln City (4.94) drew at Walsall, won in ET in 2012 in the round of 128.
This is a huge surprise to me. Away dogs with odds under 6.50, who were also home dogs in the first match, went 3-3-1 overall, including 2-0-0 in this round. I believe in most cases these are matches featuring sides from different leagues.
More as I dig stuff up.
 

To me , the fixtures this week (apart from the Liverpool v Man City game), are a hand grenade.
Three big teams at ridiculously low odds. Chelsea, Tottenham and Man United. The biggest odds on offer (1.32) for the home win, are lousy. The implied probability (for the win) is around 75% for each of these games. Leicester are capable of surprising Chelsea, while Stoke and Everton will play an 11 man defense and hope for a break away or set piece goal. Not a place for the smart money ! 

The other games are a lottery, which is suggested by the price. Can you really pick a winner (with confidence) between Crystal Palace and Burnley, Huddersfield and West Ham, WBA and Brighton or Watford v Southampton. My feeling is NO. These teams are so inconsistent, and totally unpredictable. Is there any team closer to Watford in blowing games, and throwing wins away? 

Crystal Palace are even money to beat Burnley . Really ! What nonsense. Burnley have lost 2 away league games this season (Leicester and Man City). I would'nt touch Palace with a 10 ft pole here.
Just a week for leaving the cash in the wallet !
 
If I had to bet on something, I would take Southampton to beat Watford away for 2 main reasons.
1) Saints away record has been proo, but no team in the EPL has had a tougher away schedule last 5 games.
2) Watford are just a crazy team. They are liable to blow them selves up at any moment, have a guy sent off, or just collapse. No team in the EPL has squandered a lead more than them ...
 

Leverkusen has a total of 12 goals in 17 goals and five in eight home games. Excellent teams both are expected to have a very good match, with phases and goals on either side, have very good attacking lines and can score one goal
BAYER LEVERKUSEN vs BAYERN MUNICH @@ Both team to score, odds 1.53

Cardiff vs Sunderland
This preview is a strange one for me to write. All season I have been so positive about Cardiff's form but right now we are struggling. We have lost four league games on the bounce and struggled against Mansfield in the FA Cup. The simple reason for this has been injuries to the spine of our team. We have been missing Morrison in defence, Gunnarsson in midfield, and Zohore up front at various points in that run. Gunnarsson is the big miss and he's set to be out until well into February. Until he returns or we bring in more depth in that position we will be fighting an uphill battle, such is his dominance in the middle of the park. Coleman has ignited some improvement in the Black Cats. They have only lost 2 of their 6 league games so he's turned them into a difficult team to beat. This isn't going to be a pretty game. Both teams are struggling to score right now. If you're planning on watching it on Sky Sports this Saturday lunch time, I wouldn't bother!
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.73 with Betfair
Sunderland +1 @ 2.20 with Stan James
@waynecoyne, @sajtion, @canaries91, @Mindfulness, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @CloughandTaylor, @Tiffy, @PokerWolf1, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @willie82, @Neubs, @Papa Lazarou, @kulikTS, and @the bastardian, what do you guys think of these tips and the other matches taking place in the Championship this weekend?

Hi all,
Just a quick post to explain a few changes around the place. Due to a lack of activity on the less popular leagues, we are stream-lining our focus. We will be posting up round-by-round odds and ratings plus previews for a selection of games for the Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two, SPL, Scottish Championship, Champions League, Europa League, FA Cup, EFL Cup, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A, and Brazilian Serie A.
However, all other leagues will be trimmed to just a single thread to cover the action of the whole season. Members are encouraged to still post their thoughts on those leagues. If a league begins to generate enough interest then we will look to cover it more in-depth. A few leagues such as the MLS, A-League, and Belgian Pro League have gone through periods of popularity in the past. If that happens in the future then we will look to cover them more.
Anyway, we hope the more in-depth coverage of the most popular leagues will help make this forum more active and useful for you all when it comes to betting on football.
Don't forget, tell your friends about the forum. The more chat and tips we have, the more we can smash those wins! If you are also a fan of a team then please do share your tips for each of your club's games. Nobody knows a team like their own fans! 

Failure is the greatest teacher! 

to PL @robertdinero! We've got weekly threads for tips and then special ones for Grand Slams, as you've surely noticed. There are, of course, some differences when it comes to betting small x betting big, but we are a forum that does not discriminate in this regard, so keep that in mind.

Always such an underrated bet the Draw/Win for favourites, and a bet I'm a huge fan of.  

Just a great day, as things broke right everywhere. The 5.0 to 8.0 wins included three I took (Peterborough, Dons and Notts County) and one I didn't (Coventry), and the 3.0 to 5.0 draws included three I took (Stevenage, Peterborough and Carlisle) out of seven, with odds around 3.4 to 3.6 for X. In all, finished 6-8 for +15 units in FAC. Thanks where they're due to Andrew C, who gave me the push toward the historical draw in the latter case and away from the recent wins.

"For this round, over the past seven seasons, dogs in the 3.0 to 5.0 range tend to draw when they get a result, whereas those in the 5.0 to 8.0 range tend to win when they get a result. One thing that is hurting my brain is that the past three season have seen those in the 4.0 to 5.0 range have been winning rather than drawing. Last season Derby and Leicester won away, the previous year Burnley and Walsall, Sheffield Utd in 2015."
@allthethings - one reason is because since the last 2/3 seasons fixtures have congested a lot - teams don't want to face a replay, and go all out for the win. If you look at the fixtures you mentioned, the dogs won because they are classically counterattacking teams - Leicester, Burnley, Walsall...
 
 

Haha, learned from the best mate!... Well, I didn't because the bet didn't come in but yeah, got to love a corners bet if nothing else stands out. I was tempted to back Van Dijk to score but wasn't 100% sure he would start. Always worth backing a debutant to score or a player playing against his old club to score. Or Shane Long scoring against Cardiff!

"For this round, over the past seven seasons, dogs in the 3.0 to 5.0 range tend to draw when they get a result, whereas those in the 5.0 to 8.0 range tend to win when they get a result. One thing that is hurting my brain is that the past three season have seen those in the 4.0 to 5.0 range have been winning rather than drawing. Last season Derby and Leicester won away, the previous year Burnley and Walsall, Sheffield Utd in 2015."
@allthethings - one reason is because since the last 2/3 seasons fixtures have congested a lot - teams don't want to face a replay, and go all out for the win. If you look at the fixtures you mentioned, the dogs won because they are classically counterattacking teams - Leicester, Burnley, Walsall...
 
 

Fascinating odds movement today, dunno if anyone saw it. When I first looked at the overs in the Man Utd match, the odds on offer for o2.5 was 1.8. By the time it kicked off, the odds on offer were o3 for 1.8. The odds in the Liverpool match started at about 1.9 for o3, ended at 1.7 for o2.5.
So of course the match with the money flooding toward overs finished under, and vice versa.
For this round, over the past seven seasons, dogs in the 3.0 to 5.0 range tend to draw when they get a result, whereas those in the 5.0 to 8.0 range tend to win when they get a result. One thing that is hurting my brain is that the past three season have seen those in the 4.0 to 5.0 range have been winning rather than drawing. Last season Derby and Leicester won away, the previous year Burnley and Walsall, Sheffield Utd in 2015.
One thing I will say is that the odds already reflect sides that have recent success, like Swans. Rarely do these tendencies carry over from season to season...you have much better luck selecting a side that comes seemingly out of nowhere.
Regardless...tomorrow looking at Peterborough, Wigan and Dons away, Carlisle and Coventry at home, among a few others. I'll pull the trigger close to kickoff after seeing where the money goes...typically I do the opposite.

Tip of the hat to Bellerin for making that second tip come in at the death!  Never in doubt!

Not yet, next week.
Get in Palace 

I've backed them, can't resist the price.