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StevieDay1983

FA Cup Predictions > Jan 16th & 17th

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Mansfield v Cardiff City

Mansfield: Kane Hemmings (18/7 f, 2nd top scorer), Zander Diamond (12/3 d, captain), Johnny Hunt (15/0 m)(all doubtful), David Mirfin (12/1 d)

Cardiff City: Yanic Wildschut (1/0 f, cup-tied), Craig Bryson (13/1 m), Kadeem Harris (0/0 m), Aron Gunnarsson (12/0 m), Lee Peltier (21/0 d), Matthew Connolly (1/0 d), Danny Ward (18/4 f), Lee Camp (0/0 g)

 

West Ham v Shrewsbury

West Ham: Javier Hernández (17/4 f, 2nd top scorer), Reece Oxford (0/0 d)(both doubtful), Andy Carroll (12/2 f), Michail Antonio (15/1 m), Sam Byram (0/0 d), Winston Reid (16/0 d), Diafra Sakho (14/2 f), Edimilson Fernandes (7/0 m), Jose Fonte (8/0 d)

Shrewsbury: Zak Jules (0/0 d, doubtful), Junior Brown (15/1 d)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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Football Facts and Streaks regarding FA Cup

There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Leicester's last 3 games in FA Cup.
Reading have failed to score in their last 3 games in FA Cup.
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 6 games in FA Cup.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 87% of Fleetwood's last 15 games in FA Cup.

You can find interesting 58 Football Betting Streaks for 16.01.2018 on this link ... http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-streaks-16-01-2018

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Mansfield vs Cardiff

Due to all the hype surrounding the appointment of Ryan Giggs as Wales national team manager, you'd be forgiven for forgetting that Cardiff are playing this game tonight. The winners will enjoy a home tie against Premier League leaders Manchester City. Usually, I would have said this would be a struggle for us and that we'd be fielding a weakened side. However, after the demolition of Sunderland on the weekend and the potential money-spinning game against City as a reward, I think Warnock will field a side that should take the win here.

Cardiff to win @ 2.20 with Coral

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.73 with Betfair

@waynecoyne, @malabgd, @Magic0024, @andrewcalo, @Neubs, @Arkadi Manucharov, @Jamesboaz, @Tiffy, @RealUnited, @allthethings, @Bronxie, @jamiedavies02, @slipkid, @DW_United, @sajtion, @fat, @Pep004, @allyhibs, @betcatalog, @6avin24, @PokerWolf1, @Papa Lazarou, @godofhorses, and @Darran, what do you guys think of the matches tonight and tomorrow?

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I'm not sure I have any thoughts, but I do have numbers.

I spent some time isolating the FA Cup replays from the larger database of FA Cup matches. I'll post as I go through it...I'm home in bed, medicated, after throwing out my back somehow.

So here's a rhetorical question: You managed a draw at home as an underdog to a prohibitive favorite (odds 2.00 or under). In the replay, you're away and now a bigger underdog: Today, you're Stevenage and Carlisle.

My data goes back to 2010-11. There have been seven previous matches where the dog is under 6.5 away (the three dogs with even higher odds lost and didn't score).

Everton (6.30) drew at Chelsea, won on penalties in 2011 in the round of 16. Two premier squads, maybe not a huge surprise.

Sutton (6.23) beat AFC Wimbledon 3-1 last season in the round of 32.

Kidderminster (6.21) won at Peterborough 3-2 in 2014 in the round of 32.

Redbridge (5.81) drew at Oxford City, won in ET in 2014 in the round of 128.

Woking (5.66) won 3-0 at Bury this year in the round of 128.

Notts County (5.62) lost 2-0 at Peterborough last season in the round of 64.

Lincoln City (4.94) drew at Walsall, won in ET in 2012 in the round of 128.

This is a huge surprise to me. Away dogs with odds under 6.50, who were also home dogs in the first match, went 3-3-1 overall, including 2-0-0 in this round. I believe in most cases these are matches featuring sides from different leagues.

More as I dig stuff up.

 

Edited by allthethings
Oops, I meant 3-3-1; I was discounting the Prem/Prem match

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Just now, andrewcalo said:

@StevieDay1983 what about injuries?

Well, Hemmings is expected back for Mansfield. We still have a fair few players missing. Gunnarsson still on the physio table is the big one. Others such as Morrison and Pilkington are returning now though so that's improving availability. The only other injured players aren't really considered as first team starters anyway such as Peltier, Camp, Harris, and Connolly.

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Shrewsbury belongs to a group where they managed a draw at home in a match where the opponent's odds were over 2.0. Using all of these matches, the away dogs in the replay went 2-5-15 if their odds were greater than 5.00, but 1-4-4 if their odds were greater than 5.80 and just 0-1-3 if their odds were greater than 6.00 (Shrews are currently 6.83). However, in the round of 32, they've gone 0-1-9 (they went 0-3-3 in round of 64 matches). I would swerve, because history suggests that as the field gets winnowed, the minnows do less well.

There's one other way to sort the data...among all the first matches where neither side was even money or better, there are a group (which includes Shrews) that had odds of greater than 3.00 at home, meaning their opponents weren't huge favorites with odds in the 2.01 to 2.30 range or so. Sides with odds away of greater than 5.00 went 1-3-11, those with odds of greater than 6.00 went 0-1-3. Swerve.

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Cardiff are currently priced at 2.13. Mansfield got the draw as a huge dog of 7.05 in the first match. Let's sort this one two ways.

Mansfield have the second highest odds among sides who don't face a prohibitive favorite  of 2.00 or less in the replay. The home sides of better than 3.00 in this group have gone 5-4-4 (1-1-2 in the round of 32).

They are also among the sides in this group that had the highest odds away in the first match (7.05). Sides that were above 6.00 away in the first match and then played a side away of over 2.00 odds went 2-3-1 in the replay, 1-2-1 in the round 32.

This seems like a crapshoot. Swerve.

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Finally, Fleetwood, currently 11.71 (I use BetExplorer for averaged odds, by the way). All dogs in the replay of greater than 10.00 have gone 0-2-16, 0-1-3 in the round of 32. Make the group bigger: Dogs of greater than 8.00 have gone 2-4-31 in the replay, 0-2-6 in the round of 32.

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4 minutes ago, allthethings said:

Finally, Fleetwood, currently 11.71 (I use BetExplorer for averaged odds, by the way). All dogs in the replay of greater than 10.00 have gone 0-2-16, 0-1-3 in the round of 32. Make the group bigger: Dogs of greater than 8.00 have gone 2-4-31 in the replay, 0-2-6 in the round of 32.

No more? Are you including Carlisle as a team similar to Shrewsbury then?

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glen loovens is suspended for sheffield wednesday after being sent off on friday.

Wednesday performed well and contrary to my pessimism and slurs about their commitment, they battled well.

Luhukay seems to have them organised and played three centre backs on friday. Connor o'grady may come in for loovens.

luhukay said one young player may start tonight-clare and thorniley were other possibles but are cup tied.

Wednesday still have alot of injuries and i think this will be close. I backed the draw earlier in the week as it was nearly 4/1

but do not have a strong opinion.

 

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17 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

No more? Are you including Carlisle as a team similar to Shrewsbury then?

I grouped Carlisle with Stevenage because the public perception of the sides was similar in the first match. Stevenage were 3.92 at home, Carlisle were 3.9. Moreover, public perception is similar in the replay: Stevenage 6.05, Carlisle 5.64. And previous sides in this situation have done really well.

If a side manage a draw at home, there are several narratives that people cling to to explain it. The dog was better than anybody thought, the favorite was worse. The dog was lucky. The dog was at home. The sides matched up more evenly than expected. Whatever people are telling themselves, the difference in leagues, and the fact that the lower-league side is now away, is enough to push the odds from 4 to 6. Yet, they frequently have done well in the second match, too.

Shrews are different in that public perception of West Ham was lower in the first match. They were favored (2.15), but a draw didn't come as a huge surprise. Now, though, they're at home, and Shrews are 6.83 away. Maybe they just had one bad match? Maybe Shrews were just lucky? All the same narratives (which are what drive odds higher or lower), but the starting point was different: WHU were plus money away. There was doubt.

Sides in that group, big dogs away, haven't done well at all in the replay.

Edited by allthethings

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Ah I see, right.

I am coming back with an ACCA now. Well, in 30 minutes.

I did very well on the Bristol c Man U game, as you know, what I did not broadcast is that on the Sunday of the round of 32 I made £540 on a £5 bet and could have made £1700 had I not cashed out. Proof below.

I am studying homes draws aways and will use this info to assess too. coming back with my findings shortly.

p.s. I used your stats to guess the outcomes of those three FA Cup fixtures, along with the fact that we were way down on the average number of home wins for this Sunday. Last three years have seen double digit home wins, 11, 12, 12, and we were on 7 or 8 by then. So there had to be more home wins then jsut Tottenham and possible Brighton. Then I just had to use this together with your stats, and I too ka guess that Leeds would muck up again, and Shrewsbury would shine and hold West Ham. 

Forest was the one I was particularly concerned about, however I got lucky with the crap team Wenger put out.

 

NF.png

Edited by andrewcalo

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By the way, if you just look at odds in the replay, it looks a bit different. Here's the record of away dogs to a favorite of under 2.00 in the round of 32, sorted by away odds level:

Up to 3.99 0-0-3

4.0 to 4.99 2-5-5

5.0 to 5.99 0-1-6 (Carlisle). The one draw was Crystal Palace 5.85, lost at Stoke 4-1 in ET in 2013.

6.0 to 7.99 2-0-6 (Shrews, Stevenage). The two wins were Kidderminster and Sutton, as noted above.

8.0 and up 0-2-6 (Fleetwood). The two draws were Droylsden 8.1 at Orient, lost 8-2 after ET, Reading 13.22 beat Liverpool in ET, both in 2010.

Carlisle and Stevenage are in the group of sides that have gone 2-0-0 (3-3-1 overall) in this situation. Shrews are in a group that have gone 0-1-9, 0-1-3 or some such, depending on how you sort it.

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FA cup third round replay results

2014 5h  1d  3a  

2015 4h  2d  1a   

2016 6h  2d  2a   

2017 5h  0d  4a

This suggests on averages alone that we will see 4 home, 1 draw, 3 away.

Though you have to take into account swings away from the average that must right themselves.

I would say we are looking at 4-5 home wins, 1-2 draws, and 2 aways. 

Edited by andrewcalo

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21 minutes ago, andrewcalo said:

FA cup third round replay results

2014 5h  1d  3a  

2015 4h  2d  1a   

2016 6h  2d  2a   

2017 5h  0d  4a

This suggests on averages alone that we will see 4 home, 1 draw, 1 away.

Though you have to take into account swings away from the average that must right themselves.

I would say we are looking at 4-5 home wins, 1-2 draws, and 2 aways. 

I don't ascribe anything to that...in a year in which the favorites were all away or all at home, what would the numbers tell you? There is so much variance from round to round, year to year. Actually, people have said the same to me about what I do, and I agree that past trends don't predict future results (as they say with regard to stocks). But public perception is pretty consistent, and pretty consistently wrong, and odds, which reflect public perception, fall into certain patterns. For example, I've started quantifying seasonal tendencies, such as the first weeks after the winter break...but they're still based on odds, rather than roulette (if black wins ten times in a row, it has to win red now!).

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So taking into account all things, I am putting this ACCA down:

 

Swansea

Wigan

Cardiff

Stevenage +1

Shrewsbury +1

Carlisle +1

 

Courtesy of @betcatalog

Marseille and O 2.5

Nice Monaco BTTS

 

Total odds 675. Worth a quid.

 

Of course there might be more than 4 home wins, and that mucks it up for us, but this is kind of the logic behind big ACCa betting - you are taking a huge risk anyway. Might as well stake your hand on some consistent system and the risk will land once every while.

ATM it is landing for me once a month lol.

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