Data
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I've been looking further into various options for this experiment in artificial intellingence football predictions. Using goal differences instead of simply the three options of Home/Away/Draw that I began with didn't appear to get me any closer to a solution. However, using a classification method with correct scores did show some promise . . .
Again, nothing but current league results to date (where the engine assumes each team's home & away results are two distinctly separate individual teams). Results used are all those where the home and away sides scored 2 goals or fewer, and other scores are all lumped together as "other". This approach I figured was working with more than 50% of all results, and I wasn't really bothered about attempting to predict EVERY game, rather than to concentrate on those games where scores were more 'reasonable' and as such perhaps allowing a little more confidence in the outcomes.
We shall see, can this possibly make a level stake profit?
The 3 most common football outcomes are 1-0, 1-1 & 0-1. So, I'll use these scores as control variables, logging the percentage hit rate and profit/loss for each and comparing progress.
Japan 26-Aug-18 11:00 Shonan FC Tokyo 2~0 Japan 26-Aug-18 11:00 Sagan Tosu G-Osaka 1~0 China 26-Aug-18 12:35 Jiangsu Suning Guangzhou R&F 2~2 Belarus 26-Aug-18 13:45 Smolevichi STI Brest 2~0 Sweden 26-Aug-18 14:00 Malmo FF Sirius 1~1 Sweden 26-Aug-18 14:00 Ostersunds Sundsvall 1~1 Iceland 26-Aug-18 15:00 KR Reykjavik Vestmannaeyjar 0~1 Brazil 26-Aug-18 15:00 Sao Paulo Ceara 1~0 Chile 26-Aug-18 16:00 Palestino San Luis 1~1 Sweden 26-Aug-18 16:30 Djurgarden Elfsborg 1~0 Norway 26-Aug-18 17:00 Rosenborg Stromsgodset 2~2 Iceland 26-Aug-18 19:00 Keflavik Hafnarfjordur 1~1 Norway 26-Aug-18 19:00 Valerenga Brann 2~2 Brazil 26-Aug-18 20:00 Internacional Palmeiras 1~0 Brazil 26-Aug-18 20:00 Vitoria Atletico-MG 1~0 Chile 26-Aug-18 21:30 Union La Calera Deportes Iquique 0~0 Brazil 26-Aug-18 23:00 Vasco Chapecoense-SC 1~0 Chile 27-Aug-18 00:00 A. Italiano U. Catolica 2~2 Belarus 27-Aug-18 17:00 Slutsk Luch Minsk 1~1 Sweden 27-Aug-18 18:00 Norrkoping Goteborg 1~0 Iceland 27-Aug-18 19:00 Fylkir Grindavik 1~1 -
Is this where I register my interest for inclusion in the next Football Tipster Competition?
Do I get a reminder when the next mini-season begins?
Ta!
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Two from three for a profit is okay. But I've re-analysed and re-thought my methods.
I'm still using nothing more than season results to date to build the networks, no odds are used, no winning margins, just the season's win, draw & away records. I do have a very small sample now to help see how it is performing, and near to perfect P=1 is required to trigger a bet ~ but still work in progress.
This weeknend's matches are reprinted here in full showing all network P values for HOME,DRAW or AWAY.
My best bets are shown to the right hand side.country date KO home team away team OddsH OddsD OddsA Phome Pdraw Paway My Pick BRAZIL 23/08/2018 23:30 Flamengo RJ Vitoria 1.36 5.28 13.93 0.9350 0.0170 0.0480 BELARUS 24/08/2018 16:45 FC Minsk Zhodino 3.78 3.10 1.93 0.0000 0.9997 0.0003 BRAZIL 24/08/2018 00:00 Atletico-MG Vasco 1.58 4.32 6.50 0.9981 0.0001 0.0018 CHINA 24/08/2018 12:35 Tianjin Quanjian Guizhou Zhicheng 1.92 3.80 4.03 0.9993 0.0007 0.0000 HOME JAPAN 24/08/2018 11:00 Kashima Iwata 2.00 3.75 4.33 0.3913 0.5997 0.0090 BELARUS 25/08/2018 13:45 Gorodeja Isloch Minsk 2.42 2.73 3.08 0.0000 0.0232 0.9768 BELARUS 25/08/2018 15:45 BATE Vitebsk 1.40 3.84 7.41 0.5029 0.4971 0.0000 BELARUS 25/08/2018 17:45 Neman Torpedo Minsk 1.41 3.70 7.99 0.1481 0.1408 0.7111 CHILE 25/08/2018 00:00 Curico Unido U. De Concepcion 2.61 3.38 2.80 0.0000 0.0135 0.9865 CHILE 25/08/2018 16:00 Colo Colo U. De Chile 2.10 3.60 3.80 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 AWAY CHILE 25/08/2018 19:00 Deportes Temuco Everton 2.31 3.44 3.30 0.9981 0.0018 0.0002 CHILE 25/08/2018 21:30 Huachipato Antofagasta 2.51 3.40 3.03 0.0006 0.5082 0.4912 CHINA 25/08/2018 12:35 Chongqing Lifan Dalian Yifang F.C. 2.32 3.66 3.04 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 AWAY CHINA 25/08/2018 12:35 Shandong Luneng Guangzhou Evergrande 3.12 3.74 2.21 0.4912 0.5088 0.0000 CHINA 25/08/2018 12:35 Shanghai SIPG Henan Jianye 1.12 9.70 27.00 0.9935 0.0000 0.0065 CHINA 25/08/2018 12:35 Tianjin Teda Beijing Guoan 5.45 4.30 1.62 0.0000 0.0004 0.9995 ICELAND 25/08/2018 18:00 Stjarnan Breidablik 1.97 3.76 4.00 0.0001 0.7302 0.2697 ICELAND 25/08/2018 18:00 Vikingur Reykjavik KA Akureyri 2.64 3.60 2.76 0.0000 0.0132 0.9868 ICELAND 25/08/2018 21:00 Valur Fjolnir 1.46 4.97 8.00 0.5246 0.4754 0.0000 JAPAN 25/08/2018 11:00 C-Osaka Hiroshima 2.48 3.62 3.00 0.0034 0.2566 0.7399 JAPAN 25/08/2018 11:00 Kashiwa V-Varen Nagasaki 1.80 3.92 5.25 0.8272 0.0001 0.1727 JAPAN 25/08/2018 11:00 Kawasaki Frontale Vegalta Sendai 1.61 4.50 6.50 0.0103 0.0017 0.9881 JAPAN 25/08/2018 11:00 Shimizu Sapporo 2.52 3.52 3.00 0.0000 0.4876 0.5124 NORWAY 25/08/2018 17:00 Haugesund Stabaek 1.82 3.91 4.83 0.9746 0.0253 0.0001 NORWAY 25/08/2018 17:00 Molde Ranheim 1.44 5.25 9.17 0.7594 0.0002 0.2404 NORWAY 25/08/2018 17:00 Sandefjord Lillestrom 3.10 3.50 2.53 0.5435 0.0003 0.4562 NORWAY 25/08/2018 17:00 Sarpsborg 08 Kristiansund 1.83 4.00 4.65 0.9991 0.0009 0.0000 HOME NORWAY 25/08/2018 17:00 Tromso Bodo/Glimt 2.02 3.75 3.95 0.0000 0.9906 0.0094 BELARUS 26/08/2018 13:45 Smolevichi STI Brest 8.10 4.36 1.33 0.0001 0.9785 0.0214 BELARUS 26/08/2018 15:45 Shakhtyor Soligorsk Dnepr Mogilev 1.22 4.98 11.56 0.5000 0.5000 0.0000 BELARUS 26/08/2018 17:45 FC Gomel Din. Minsk 6.42 3.49 1.51 0.0000 0.5000 0.5000 CHILE 26/08/2018 00:00 O'Higgins U. Espanola 2.32 3.40 3.36 0.1187 0.0077 0.8736 CHILE 26/08/2018 16:00 Palestino San Luis 1.82 3.70 4.90 0.9999 0.0001 0.0000 HOME CHILE 26/08/2018 21:30 Union La Calera Deportes Iquique 2.16 3.44 3.70 0.0000 0.4826 0.5174 CHINA 26/08/2018 11:00 Changchun Yatai Hebei 2.86 3.70 2.41 0.4842 0.0318 0.4841 CHINA 26/08/2018 12:35 Jiangsu Suning Guangzhou R&F 1.92 3.68 4.14 0.6025 0.3969 0.0006 CHINA 26/08/2018 12:35 Shanghai Shenhua Beijing Renhe 1.72 3.80 5.30 0.0011 0.9988 0.0000 ICELAND 26/08/2018 15:00 KR Reykjavik Vestmannaeyjar 1.62 4.09 6.55 0.5304 0.4696 0.0000 ICELAND 26/08/2018 19:00 Keflavik Hafnarfjordur 9.50 5.80 1.36 0.0000 0.4922 0.5078 JAPAN 26/08/2018 10:00 Kobe Yokohama M. 2.09 3.92 3.75 0.9973 0.0026 0.0001 JAPAN 26/08/2018 10:00 Nagoya Urawa 3.60 3.90 2.15 0.0002 0.9207 0.0791 JAPAN 26/08/2018 11:00 Sagan Tosu G-Osaka 2.32 3.48 3.60 0.9531 0.0469 0.0000 JAPAN 26/08/2018 11:00 Shonan FC Tokyo 3.79 3.60 2.10 0.0028 0.4840 0.5132 NORWAY 26/08/2018 17:00 Rosenborg Stromsgodset 1.56 4.50 7.00 0.4876 0.5014 0.0110 NORWAY 26/08/2018 19:00 Valerenga Brann 2.80 3.55 2.74 0.0000 0.4651 0.5349 SWEDEN 26/08/2018 14:00 Hacken Brommapojkarna 1.26 7.00 14.50 0.9854 0.0146 0.0000 SWEDEN 26/08/2018 14:00 Malmo FF Sirius 1.33 6.10 10.75 0.8920 0.1078 0.0003 SWEDEN 26/08/2018 14:00 Ostersunds Sundsvall 1.80 4.00 5.00 0.8661 0.1325 0.0015 SWEDEN 26/08/2018 16:30 AIK Trelleborgs 1.20 8.00 27.50 0.5003 0.4997 0.0000 SWEDEN 26/08/2018 16:30 Djurgarden Elfsborg 1.79 3.90 5.05 0.8053 0.0000 0.1947 BELARUS 27/08/2018 17:00 Slutsk Luch Minsk 1.31 4.46 8.63 0.9142 0.0005 0.0852 CHILE 27/08/2018 00:00 A. Italiano U. Catolica 3.22 3.50 2.37 0.0000 0.4993 0.5007 ICELAND 27/08/2018 19:00 Fylkir Grindavik 2.22 3.54 3.46 0.9985 0.0000 0.0015 NORWAY 27/08/2018 18:00 Start Odd 2.75 3.60 2.85 0.2554 0.3096 0.4350 SWEDEN 27/08/2018 18:00 Dalkurd Hammarby 5.83 4.20 1.66 0.3092 0.3995 0.2913 SWEDEN 27/08/2018 18:00 Kalmar Orebro 1.83 4.05 4.55 0.3716 0.6284 0.0000 SWEDEN 27/08/2018 18:00 Norrkoping Goteborg 1.65 4.20 6.00 0.4999 0.0004 0.4998 -
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14 correct from the 38 picks (including the Brazil games) is not a start I would have wished for. -12.83 from a 33.8% strike rate and a -33.76% yield. But this thread is experimental and my thinking-in-progress, so all is far from doom & gloom.
My neural net classifier gives a binary decision on each game. For my first run, with last weekend's fixtures I merely selected the outcome with the highest network 'probability' for every match, with a no bet where two oucomes were too close to call. Better I think to select only the very best of the picks where the net is suggesting a near certainty. I'm not naive enough to think such games will be anywhere near the certainty suggested, but they will be the cream of the crop.
Elsewhere I've expressed my opinion that football draws are probably the hardest outcome to predict, and my weekend sample, although comparatively small, suggested 7 such outcomes - and every single one failed! Not a proof by any means, but something to keep in my mind.
So, the Brazil net newly trained with the latest results and bearing the above thoughts in mind, we have three midweek selections; ALL HOME WINS:-
BRAZIL A 23-Aug-18 01:00 Palmeiras Botafogo RJ 1.44 23-Aug-18 01:00 Sport Recife America MG 1.91 23-Aug-18 01:45 Fluminense Corinthians 2.23 -
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4 hours ago, keef75 said:
. . . and I need to cross check team names are consistent in each league over the course of the season, I noticed some small differences in the Premiership teams that I had to change before it all worked properly.
Team names can be a nightmare when trawling information from multiple sources. The number of variants appears to be directly proportional with the obscurity of the league.
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Many football rating methods are compiled on a match-by-match basis in real time, inasmuch a ratings is assessed for a game at hand, then using the result of said game, the rating is adjusted accordingly. The most recent match therefore has perhaps too much of an influence on how the new rating moves.
This approach presented here also uses past results to calculate the outcome, but it looks at ALL previous game results and treats them as equally important. Trends therefore are not picked up, whichever way a team's form is heading is totally ignored. A good or bad thing? . . . let's find out.
I'm using neural/genetic machine learning to process season-to-date league results to find the best fit of correct home, draw, away predictions to then apply to the next set of fixtures. In order allow the algorithms enough relevant information and data it is thought necessary to employ only where a league season is half completed.
Other caveats include no leagues of more than 20 teams so as not to overwhelm the net (and take far longer to process). No leagues with too few teams either where teams may play each other more than twice ~ nothing confuses artificial intelligence more than encountering the same situation with different outcomes, e.g. United v City showing one home win and one away win.
Having churned through a few leagues here's what it gives for this weekend; (odds are Oddsportal average odds from 50 odd bookies)
CHILE 18-Aug-18 16:00 San Luis U. Espanola A 2.57 3.28 2.59 18-Aug-18 19:00 Antofagasta Union La Calera nobet 1.94 3.54 3.57 18-Aug-18 21:30 U. De Chile O'Higgins A 1.64 4.01 4.51 19-Aug-18 00:00 Everton Huachipato H 2.04 3.27 3.52 19-Aug-18 16:00 Deportes Iquique Colo Colo A 3.19 3.51 2.05 19-Aug-18 19:00 U. De Concepcion Deportes Temuco H 1.83 3.43 3.99 19-Aug-18 21:30 U. Catolica Curico Unido H 1.72 3.57 4.45 SWEDEN 18-Aug-18 15:00 Malmo FF Trelleborgs H 1.15 7.89 17.16 19-Aug-18 14:00 Elfsborg Norrkoping X 2.87 3.44 2.36 19-Aug-18 14:00 Sundsvall Hacken H 3.26 3.51 2.13 19-Aug-18 16:30 Brommapojkarna AIK nobet 7.98 4.47 1.4 19-Aug-18 16:30 Djurgarden Kalmar H 1.65 3.63 5.53 20-Aug-18 18:00 Hammarby Orebro H 1.43 4.64 6.64 20-Aug-18 18:00 Goteborg Ostersunds A 2.93 3.25 2.41 JAPAN 19-Aug-18 05:00 Sapporo FC Tokyo X 2.79 3.27 2.45 19-Aug-18 10:00 Nagoya Sagan Tosu X 2.9 3.4 2.3 19-Aug-18 10:00 Shimizu Urawa H 3.54 3.38 2.03 19-Aug-18 10:00 V-Varen Nagasaki C-Osaka X 3.43 3.4 2.05 19-Aug-18 10:30 Kashima Yokohama M. A 1.92 3.77 3.53 19-Aug-18 11:00 Hiroshima Kawasaki Frontale A 2.88 3.41 2.32 19-Aug-18 11:00 Iwata Kashiwa A 2.74 3.17 2.55 19-Aug-18 11:00 Shonan Kobe X 3.23 3.42 2.13 19-Aug-18 11:00 Vegalta Sendai G-Osaka A 2.09 3.53 3.22 CHINA 18-Aug-18 12:35 Beijing Renhe Beijing Guoan A 7.35 5.74 1.31 18-Aug-18 12:35 Chongqing Lifan Shanghai SIPG A 7.94 5.83 1.29 18-Aug-18 12:35 Dalian Yifang F.C. Henan Jianye H 1.91 3.48 3.77 18-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou R&F Changchun Yatai A 2.14 3.62 3.01 18-Aug-18 12:35 Guizhou Zhicheng Shandong Luneng A 6.24 4.93 1.4 18-Aug-18 12:35 Tianjin Teda Jiangsu Suning nobet 2.43 3.38 2.71 19-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou Evergrande Tianjin Quanjian H 1.07 10.81 22.57 19-Aug-18 12:35 Hebei Shanghai Shenhua H 2.09 3.72 3.01 I also processed Brazil Serie A, but they're not quite half way through their season yet, but here are the forecasts anyway;
BRAZIL OddsPortal average odds 18-Aug-18 20:00 Santos Sport Recife H 1.51 4.01 6.46 18-Aug-18 23:00 Corinthians Gremio A 2.97 2.92 2.58 19-Aug-18 15:00 Atletico-PR Flamengo RJ H 2.74 3.12 2.62 19-Aug-18 15:00 Internacional Parana H 1.38 4.4 8.74 19-Aug-18 20:00 Botafogo RJ Atletico-MG X 2.36 3.31 2.92 19-Aug-18 20:00 Cruzeiro Bahia H 1.44 3.98 8.2 19-Aug-18 20:00 Vitoria Palmeiras X 3.42 3.4 2.08 19-Aug-18 23:00 America MG Fluminense H 2.31 3.09 3.19 19-Aug-18 23:00 Sao Paulo Chapecoense-SC H 1.39 4.31 8.88 21-Aug-18 00:00 Vasco Ceara A 1.75 3.36 4.91 - thecurlyone1 and harry_rag
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A new season beckons and the home win system bets begin.
1.7 pts profit from 5 bets, carried forward from last seasonOddschecker best odds at the time of posting are quoted;
Chelsea v Arsenal 1.83
Man City v Huddersfield 1.1
Tottenham v Fulham 1.3West Brom v QPR 1.71
Sheff Utd v Norwich 2.15
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Best of luck with this @neilovan
I've had over 20 years with ML models, wouldn't go anywhere without them and my betting wallet has seen the benefit. Just a personal view here, but I find it strange that you've focused your attention on football draws.Your past data will show that a level stake bet on each of home win, draw and away win will show the biggest loss to be in the draw column. Does this suggest that the bookies tend to underprice the draw because it is sooo difficult to predict with any degree of certainty?
Again, I won't knock your project here, but maybe turning your attention to home wins could (would?) allow a higher win% from more bets? But I'm probably preaching to the converted and you have tried that route and dismissed it.
However, fortune favours the brave, so good hunting. I'll be interested to see how it pans out.
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Excellent thread @FootballBettingPredictor and I'm sure you'll take the @moggis veiled criticisms above with a pinch of salt. Keep up the good work and show that those who post specific selections for peer review and real-time accounting are worth a thousand of the posters who offer unqualified and unproven opinion.
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I'd been making extensive use of PL racecards section. But after today, I'll be checking carefully.
The 2:10 at Hamilton has favourite odds of 5.5? If only! How on earth does this happen?
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Everybody and his dog 'knows' this is going to be a high scoring game. Just the occasion when, because each team also know the dangers of their opponents attack, they will concentrate more on not giving anything away.
For me it has all the hallmarks of a 0-0 at 90 minutes.
Having said that, should a goal be scored in the first half, then the game profile changes and a hat-full is possible. But for me that doesn't make the odds of 23.0 available for 0-0 correct score (Skybet) a poor value bet, even if used as a small stake saver with whatever else you think may happen.
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22 hours ago, moggis said:
I was about to congratulate you on being a successful soccer bettor following your first two paragraphs but then you seem to not be a profitable football bettor according to the third paragraph?
So I take it your 6 figure winnings ( I assume you meant profits ?) are on other sports ? I’m curious to know which sports and if it’s not too much trouble what it is about you that you think enabled you to win? I’m also surprised to see thst none of your accounts has been closed .
My winnings were predominantly from horse racing daily markets.
I suppose my research allowed me a better idea of the outcomes. There are acquaintances who have won more money than I with spread betting and still have their accounts open. In my experience spread firms are much more tolerant than traditional bookies. For example I also had winning sports spread accounts with IGIndex, Spreadfair, City Index, etc., before they ceased operations, none of them were closed down.
The 'good times' were up to about 3 years ago, at which time it appeared the spread firms' improved their analysis and my edge was eroding. I took a 1 year sabbatical, but 'missed' the buzz and have been active again for the past couple of years. Much reduced stakes now though, and far fewer opportunities, over this time I'm just over 12K in front, but it's an enjoyable hobby!
22 hours ago, moggis said:Finally,I’m sorry to correct you but with respect you’re wrong to say football is hard to crack.
As I said earlier long term football markets are easy to beat.
Apologies. I always think of football betting on a game by game basis and individual matches.
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54 minutes ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:
The bookmakers don't care who win's as long as the book is balanced. When Compiling odds they need to know where the money could be going.
True up to a point, so long as the winnings aren't going disproportionately to an individual. Accountant led management dictates the firm can do without winning punters. The only exception in my experience are the two UK based spread firms (NOT the Irish outfit who also only cater for losers)
My winning accounts are still active after more than 20 years. Okay, every bet I place is 'referred to trader' and occasionally (rather than usually) my stake is restricted or the quote shifted ~ but never a hint of account closure (and my total winnings are into six-figures)
54 minutes ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:myself and many other people will try to work towards a long term profitable system/project. Most fail and I will most likely be one of them as well but it won't stop me from trying
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Football is heavily analysed by possibly millions of people and consequently extremely difficult to crack. But like you it won't stop me trying either, I've not beaten the book over the long term, but I'm enjoying the research.
"Focus on the journey, not the destination. Joy is found not in finishing an activity but in doing it."
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My final-game-of-season fears were realised, the goalfest in the Tottenham game (5-4) put paid to my attempt to recover losses by the season end. Today's reversal leaves my deficit at -89.55.
However, given that I was trying to recover from disastrous mini performance losses of 539.55, these total goals & superiority spreads have served me well.
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A 0-0 draw is the worst result to have when you're buying total goals, so today's two bets send me into a loss.
70 staked, 3W 4L, -16.00
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No luck with today's result:
40 staked, 1W 3L, -11.50
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A couple of slight reversals from today's two, but still in profit
30 pts staked, 1W 2L, profit 2pts
Henan Jianye v Beijing Renhe kicks off 12:35 tomorrow.
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Return from today's 5 bets was 2 wins
50 pts staked, 2W 3L profit 7.5pts
So, a decent enough start. Tokyo v Sapporo kicks off at 8:00 tomorrow morning.
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Following closely on the heels of my China Super League spreads, we'll see how I can do with Japanese league football spreads;
All 10 point bets
GOAL SUPERIORITY Shimizu Shonan Bellmare 0.35 - 0.55 SELL V-Varen-Naqasaki Naqoja 0.2 - 0.4 BUY Tokyo Sapporo 0.25 - 0.45 SELL TOTAL GOALS Jubilo Vissel Kobe 2.45 - 2.65 BUY Veqalta Sendai Hiroshima 2.25 - 2.45 BUY Marinos Gamba 2.9 - 3.1 BUY Tokyo Sapporo 2.4 - 2.6 BUY All quotes are from Spreadex, can't see any J-League quotes with SPIN!
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Well, a lucky start maybe? First game on the list is a winner for me, ending 2-2, so a 10pt profit to start us off.
Looking forward now to the next two games, tomorrow at 12:35
Division 8 - Week 3 Selections
in Football Tipster Competition
Posted
Sorry 'bout that
Oh dear.
Ta