Data
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Posts posted by Data
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For today;
ITALY SAT 21/4 Sassuolo v Fiorentina SELL HOME 16-19
FINLA SAT 21/4 Inter Turku v TPS Turku SELL AWAY 13-16
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On 15/04/2018 at 11:57 AM, harry_rag said:
Another nilling. Surely someone is making hay by fading these selections by now? The thread's a goldmine in that respect!
1559 points risked and 1194 returned, -365 points with an ROI of -23.41%.
19 winners from 66 bets.
We all know what is certain happen if anyone did oppose all your spreads (or mine!) with cash . . .
So, the sooner they start the better.
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A welcome +14 yesterday, two winning days on the bounce (although only +15 in total). Just enough however to get me to below the -400 mark, now -399.80 from 84.
Being in deficit with this 'playing for points' exercise is one thing, but my real money horseracing spreads dealt me a severe blow with yesterday's changing going, several hundreds down on the day!
![:\](/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
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Another for today,
SUN 14:00 Antalya v Konyaspor (TURK) SELL AWAY 17 - 20
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Man City's losing streak comes to an end, so now 0.2 profit from 4 bets, ROI% of 5%
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Wow! a 1 point profit from yesterday's pair. Now -413.80 from 79
One more from today's programme,
SUN 18:00 Benfica v Porto SELL AWAY 14-17. . . and @harry_rag with no tries for Quins, we're both having a miserable time, eh?
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Well, Friday's pick leaves me another 16 points deeper in the mire, now -414.80 from 77 bets. Let's see what my Saturday pairing brings.
Another Sunday pick to add to my woes,
SUN 15:00 America Mineiro v Sport Recife (BRAZ) SELL AWAY 12-15 -
-398.80 from 76 bets, my best shot at reducing the losses this weekend is . . .
FRI 17:30 Furth v Regensbug (GER2) SELL AWAY 19-22
SAT 15:00 Norwich v Cardiff (CHAM) SELL HOME 17-20
SAT 16:00 Portimonense v Estoril (PORT) SELL AWAY 14-17
SUN 13:30 Newcastle v Arsenal (PREM) SELL AWAY 23-26
SUN 16:00 Martimo v Moreirense (PORT) SELL AWAY 13-16
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These system bets are unfortunately few and far between, but such patience is often rewarded by profits. We have a system bet this weekend, and a cracker it is too. . .
Tottenham v Manchester City ~ Home win (Oddschecker current best odds 2.68)
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My strategy yesterday was to use my home-grown football ratings, which simply forecast each game as home,away or draw, and sell the forecast losing side's spread. No parameters other than that, so no minimum spread price or anything. I wondered how to proceed with my draw predictions and opted to sell whichever team had the highest spread quote. Big mistake that, the bets where my prediction suggested a drawn game produced a loss of over 100 points ~ if I'd ignored them I'd have been in profit.
Such is the process of strategy development. We learn from such things and move on. The frustrating part is that my HDA predictions made a profit from traditional odds (using "average odds" from OddsPortal) of +5.54 to 1 point stakes. (and no, my prediction system doesn't always profit like that).
A work in progress here and a big deficit to recover, onward and upward.
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20 hours ago, harry_rag said:
Good luck! Makes my bet a day look a little lacking in ambition.
I rather think it makes your bet of the day look as if it is made with discipline and self control.
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Whoops, I'm first through the -400 barrier, whoever said Fortune favours the brave?
29 bets, 14 won, 13 lost, 1 break even and a postponement. -96 on the night, now standing at -404.80 from 74. A loss per point staked greater than the 3 point spread, so this really is poor forecasting.
Still, another couple tonight;
Wolves v Derby Sell Derby 8-11
Oldham v Walsall Sell Walsall (no quotes yet) -
After another rethink a change of tactic once more. This time I'm throwing the kitchen sink at the problem, using my own ratings method and back to relying on my long held view that selling is the most profitable. So a whole hat full of spread mini-performance sells on tonight's domestic programme.
Home mini Away mini 20 - 23 15 - 18 Aston Villa - Cardiff SellHOME 22 - 25 13 - 16 Bristol City - Birmingham SellAWAY 12 - 15 22 - 25 Burton - Hull SellAWAY 36 - 39 8 - 11 Fulham - Reading SellAWAY 18 - 21 17 - 20 Ipswich - Barnsley SellAWAY 16 - 19 22 - 25 Nott'm Forest - Brentford SellHOME 27 - 30 12 - 15 Preston - Leeds SellAWAY 24 - 27 13 - 16 QPR - Sheffield Weds SellAWAY 20 - 23 14 - 17 Sheffield United - Middlesbrough SellAWAY 19 - 22 19 - 22 Sunderland - Norwich SellAWAY 12 - 15 22 - 25 Bolton - Millwall SellAWAY 26 - 29 11 - 14 Blackpool - Northampton SellHOME 10 - 13 26 - 29 Gillingham - Blackburn SellHOME 20 - 23 16 - 19 Oxford - Fleetwood Town SellAWAY 12 - 15 23 - 26 Rochdale - Wigan SellHOME 15 - 18 19 - 22 AFC Wimbledon - Charlton SellAWAY 19 - 22 17 - 20 Morecambe - Chesterfield SellHOME 17 - 20 18 - 21 Stevenage - Mansfield SellAWAY 27 - 30 11 - 14 Swindon - Yeovil SellAWAY 22 - 25 15 - 18 Barrow - Eastleigh SellHOME 20 - 23 14 - 17 Boreham Wood - Macclesfield SellHOME 13 - 16 24 - 27 Chester - Bromley SellHOME 20 - 23 15 - 18 Ebbsfleet - Wrexham SellAWAY 13 - 16 23 - 26 Halifax - Sutton SellHOME 14 - 17 22 - 25 Guiseley - Dag and Red SellAWAY 24 - 27 15 - 18 Maidenhead - Woking SellAWAY 22 - 25 13 - 16 Solihull - Maidstone SellHOME 15 - 18 22 - 25 Torquay - Fylde SellHOME 33 - 36 7 - 10 Tranmere - Gateshead SellAWAY -
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So, another 18 points in a downward direction, pushing through the -300 barrier.
-308.80 from 46
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Another one for today's games,
SAT D1 Hamburger SV - Schalke BUY AWAY 22-25
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Mini performances for Saturday & Sunday ...
SAT SCP Partick Thistle - Kilmarnock BUY AWAY 19-22 (SX)
SUN MLS Chicago Fire - Columbus Crew BUY AWAY 18-21 (SX)
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On 04/04/2018 at 10:47 PM, Tiffy said:
Hang on a minute...." these threads are in danger of becoming exciting now there is a real contest on
Really???!? I'm sure @harry_rag would agree that if we two wannabe's with a combined -600 points (even though determined to redress the situation) could provide a little excitement into anyone else's life other than our own, we will be a little happier in our task, no matter what the outcome.
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Now standing -290.80 from 43 bets, yet I still keep pluggin' away. Recovery seems a distant dream now, so damage limitation is the goal. Some no doubt would say stopping now would be my best chance limiting damage, but where's the fun in that.
I will be back with more for the coming weekend.
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. . . and to finish of this Easter weekend, tonight I go . . .
Belenenses Porto FC BUYaway 33 - 36 -
. . . and Sunday games
Groningen Ajax Amsterdam BUYaway 39 - 42 Atletico Madrid La Coruna BUYhome 33 - 36 spin -
More mini performance bets for tomorrow, let's begin this grand comeback. Those who follow this will easily spot my change of tack!
Saturday games
Everton Manchester City BUYaway 34 - 37 Las Palmas Real Madrid BUYaway 36 - 39 sx Sevilla Barcelona FC BUYaway 26 - 29 spin Bologna Roma AS BUYaway 27 - 30 spin Lazio Roma Benevento BUYhome 40 - 43 spin Sassuolo Napoli BUYaway 33 - 36 spin Eindhoven PSV Breda NAC BUYhome 42 - 45 Benfica Lisabon Guimaraes BUYhome 42 - 45 -
On 27/03/2018 at 10:27 AM, Tiffy said:
I have a mate who loves to bet on the horses. I always joke that I am going to lay everything he backs, as he never seems to get a winner.
Think I may do the same with you
But let's face it, I've had a dreadful season so far. My wife said to me "I do t know why you spend so much time reading & researching, you don't win anything" She is right. I worked out that if I had a part time job, on minimum wage, and worked the hours instead, I would be better off!
But where is the fun in that?
Dead right! Enjoy the ride, eh?
I also used to do the minimum wage comparison, but now I prefer to liken it to a current tax-free savings account. Just how much would I need on deposit to make the equivalent interest. (But not from this thread obviously!)
The Daily Spread
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
I feel your pain.