Data
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Posts posted by Data
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14 correct from the 38 picks (including the Brazil games) is not a start I would have wished for. -12.83 from a 33.8% strike rate and a -33.76% yield. But this thread is experimental and my thinking-in-progress, so all is far from doom & gloom.
My neural net classifier gives a binary decision on each game. For my first run, with last weekend's fixtures I merely selected the outcome with the highest network 'probability' for every match, with a no bet where two oucomes were too close to call. Better I think to select only the very best of the picks where the net is suggesting a near certainty. I'm not naive enough to think such games will be anywhere near the certainty suggested, but they will be the cream of the crop.
Elsewhere I've expressed my opinion that football draws are probably the hardest outcome to predict, and my weekend sample, although comparatively small, suggested 7 such outcomes - and every single one failed! Not a proof by any means, but something to keep in my mind.
So, the Brazil net newly trained with the latest results and bearing the above thoughts in mind, we have three midweek selections; ALL HOME WINS:-
BRAZIL A 23-Aug-18 01:00 Palmeiras Botafogo RJ 1.44 23-Aug-18 01:00 Sport Recife America MG 1.91 23-Aug-18 01:45 Fluminense Corinthians 2.23 -
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4 hours ago, keef75 said:
. . . and I need to cross check team names are consistent in each league over the course of the season, I noticed some small differences in the Premiership teams that I had to change before it all worked properly.
Team names can be a nightmare when trawling information from multiple sources. The number of variants appears to be directly proportional with the obscurity of the league.
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Many football rating methods are compiled on a match-by-match basis in real time, inasmuch a ratings is assessed for a game at hand, then using the result of said game, the rating is adjusted accordingly. The most recent match therefore has perhaps too much of an influence on how the new rating moves.
This approach presented here also uses past results to calculate the outcome, but it looks at ALL previous game results and treats them as equally important. Trends therefore are not picked up, whichever way a team's form is heading is totally ignored. A good or bad thing? . . . let's find out.
I'm using neural/genetic machine learning to process season-to-date league results to find the best fit of correct home, draw, away predictions to then apply to the next set of fixtures. In order allow the algorithms enough relevant information and data it is thought necessary to employ only where a league season is half completed.
Other caveats include no leagues of more than 20 teams so as not to overwhelm the net (and take far longer to process). No leagues with too few teams either where teams may play each other more than twice ~ nothing confuses artificial intelligence more than encountering the same situation with different outcomes, e.g. United v City showing one home win and one away win.
Having churned through a few leagues here's what it gives for this weekend; (odds are Oddsportal average odds from 50 odd bookies)
CHILE 18-Aug-18 16:00 San Luis U. Espanola A 2.57 3.28 2.59 18-Aug-18 19:00 Antofagasta Union La Calera nobet 1.94 3.54 3.57 18-Aug-18 21:30 U. De Chile O'Higgins A 1.64 4.01 4.51 19-Aug-18 00:00 Everton Huachipato H 2.04 3.27 3.52 19-Aug-18 16:00 Deportes Iquique Colo Colo A 3.19 3.51 2.05 19-Aug-18 19:00 U. De Concepcion Deportes Temuco H 1.83 3.43 3.99 19-Aug-18 21:30 U. Catolica Curico Unido H 1.72 3.57 4.45 SWEDEN 18-Aug-18 15:00 Malmo FF Trelleborgs H 1.15 7.89 17.16 19-Aug-18 14:00 Elfsborg Norrkoping X 2.87 3.44 2.36 19-Aug-18 14:00 Sundsvall Hacken H 3.26 3.51 2.13 19-Aug-18 16:30 Brommapojkarna AIK nobet 7.98 4.47 1.4 19-Aug-18 16:30 Djurgarden Kalmar H 1.65 3.63 5.53 20-Aug-18 18:00 Hammarby Orebro H 1.43 4.64 6.64 20-Aug-18 18:00 Goteborg Ostersunds A 2.93 3.25 2.41 JAPAN 19-Aug-18 05:00 Sapporo FC Tokyo X 2.79 3.27 2.45 19-Aug-18 10:00 Nagoya Sagan Tosu X 2.9 3.4 2.3 19-Aug-18 10:00 Shimizu Urawa H 3.54 3.38 2.03 19-Aug-18 10:00 V-Varen Nagasaki C-Osaka X 3.43 3.4 2.05 19-Aug-18 10:30 Kashima Yokohama M. A 1.92 3.77 3.53 19-Aug-18 11:00 Hiroshima Kawasaki Frontale A 2.88 3.41 2.32 19-Aug-18 11:00 Iwata Kashiwa A 2.74 3.17 2.55 19-Aug-18 11:00 Shonan Kobe X 3.23 3.42 2.13 19-Aug-18 11:00 Vegalta Sendai G-Osaka A 2.09 3.53 3.22 CHINA 18-Aug-18 12:35 Beijing Renhe Beijing Guoan A 7.35 5.74 1.31 18-Aug-18 12:35 Chongqing Lifan Shanghai SIPG A 7.94 5.83 1.29 18-Aug-18 12:35 Dalian Yifang F.C. Henan Jianye H 1.91 3.48 3.77 18-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou R&F Changchun Yatai A 2.14 3.62 3.01 18-Aug-18 12:35 Guizhou Zhicheng Shandong Luneng A 6.24 4.93 1.4 18-Aug-18 12:35 Tianjin Teda Jiangsu Suning nobet 2.43 3.38 2.71 19-Aug-18 12:35 Guangzhou Evergrande Tianjin Quanjian H 1.07 10.81 22.57 19-Aug-18 12:35 Hebei Shanghai Shenhua H 2.09 3.72 3.01 I also processed Brazil Serie A, but they're not quite half way through their season yet, but here are the forecasts anyway;
BRAZIL OddsPortal average odds 18-Aug-18 20:00 Santos Sport Recife H 1.51 4.01 6.46 18-Aug-18 23:00 Corinthians Gremio A 2.97 2.92 2.58 19-Aug-18 15:00 Atletico-PR Flamengo RJ H 2.74 3.12 2.62 19-Aug-18 15:00 Internacional Parana H 1.38 4.4 8.74 19-Aug-18 20:00 Botafogo RJ Atletico-MG X 2.36 3.31 2.92 19-Aug-18 20:00 Cruzeiro Bahia H 1.44 3.98 8.2 19-Aug-18 20:00 Vitoria Palmeiras X 3.42 3.4 2.08 19-Aug-18 23:00 America MG Fluminense H 2.31 3.09 3.19 19-Aug-18 23:00 Sao Paulo Chapecoense-SC H 1.39 4.31 8.88 21-Aug-18 00:00 Vasco Ceara A 1.75 3.36 4.91 - harry_rag and thecurlyone1
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A new season beckons and the home win system bets begin.
1.7 pts profit from 5 bets, carried forward from last seasonOddschecker best odds at the time of posting are quoted;
Chelsea v Arsenal 1.83
Man City v Huddersfield 1.1
Tottenham v Fulham 1.3West Brom v QPR 1.71
Sheff Utd v Norwich 2.15
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Best of luck with this @neilovan
I've had over 20 years with ML models, wouldn't go anywhere without them and my betting wallet has seen the benefit. Just a personal view here, but I find it strange that you've focused your attention on football draws.Your past data will show that a level stake bet on each of home win, draw and away win will show the biggest loss to be in the draw column. Does this suggest that the bookies tend to underprice the draw because it is sooo difficult to predict with any degree of certainty?
Again, I won't knock your project here, but maybe turning your attention to home wins could (would?) allow a higher win% from more bets? But I'm probably preaching to the converted and you have tried that route and dismissed it.
However, fortune favours the brave, so good hunting. I'll be interested to see how it pans out.
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Excellent thread @FootballBettingPredictor and I'm sure you'll take the @moggis veiled criticisms above with a pinch of salt. Keep up the good work and show that those who post specific selections for peer review and real-time accounting are worth a thousand of the posters who offer unqualified and unproven opinion.
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I'd been making extensive use of PL racecards section. But after today, I'll be checking carefully.
The 2:10 at Hamilton has favourite odds of 5.5? If only! How on earth does this happen?
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Everybody and his dog 'knows' this is going to be a high scoring game. Just the occasion when, because each team also know the dangers of their opponents attack, they will concentrate more on not giving anything away.
For me it has all the hallmarks of a 0-0 at 90 minutes.
Having said that, should a goal be scored in the first half, then the game profile changes and a hat-full is possible. But for me that doesn't make the odds of 23.0 available for 0-0 correct score (Skybet) a poor value bet, even if used as a small stake saver with whatever else you think may happen.
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22 hours ago, moggis said:
I was about to congratulate you on being a successful soccer bettor following your first two paragraphs but then you seem to not be a profitable football bettor according to the third paragraph?
So I take it your 6 figure winnings ( I assume you meant profits ?) are on other sports ? I’m curious to know which sports and if it’s not too much trouble what it is about you that you think enabled you to win? I’m also surprised to see thst none of your accounts has been closed .
My winnings were predominantly from horse racing daily markets.
I suppose my research allowed me a better idea of the outcomes. There are acquaintances who have won more money than I with spread betting and still have their accounts open. In my experience spread firms are much more tolerant than traditional bookies. For example I also had winning sports spread accounts with IGIndex, Spreadfair, City Index, etc., before they ceased operations, none of them were closed down.
The 'good times' were up to about 3 years ago, at which time it appeared the spread firms' improved their analysis and my edge was eroding. I took a 1 year sabbatical, but 'missed' the buzz and have been active again for the past couple of years. Much reduced stakes now though, and far fewer opportunities, over this time I'm just over 12K in front, but it's an enjoyable hobby!
22 hours ago, moggis said:Finally,I’m sorry to correct you but with respect you’re wrong to say football is hard to crack.
As I said earlier long term football markets are easy to beat.
Apologies. I always think of football betting on a game by game basis and individual matches.
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54 minutes ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:
The bookmakers don't care who win's as long as the book is balanced. When Compiling odds they need to know where the money could be going.
True up to a point, so long as the winnings aren't going disproportionately to an individual. Accountant led management dictates the firm can do without winning punters. The only exception in my experience are the two UK based spread firms (NOT the Irish outfit who also only cater for losers)
My winning accounts are still active after more than 20 years. Okay, every bet I place is 'referred to trader' and occasionally (rather than usually) my stake is restricted or the quote shifted ~ but never a hint of account closure (and my total winnings are into six-figures)
54 minutes ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:myself and many other people will try to work towards a long term profitable system/project. Most fail and I will most likely be one of them as well but it won't stop me from trying
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Football is heavily analysed by possibly millions of people and consequently extremely difficult to crack. But like you it won't stop me trying either, I've not beaten the book over the long term, but I'm enjoying the research.
"Focus on the journey, not the destination. Joy is found not in finishing an activity but in doing it."
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My final-game-of-season fears were realised, the goalfest in the Tottenham game (5-4) put paid to my attempt to recover losses by the season end. Today's reversal leaves my deficit at -89.55.
However, given that I was trying to recover from disastrous mini performance losses of 539.55, these total goals & superiority spreads have served me well.
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A 0-0 draw is the worst result to have when you're buying total goals, so today's two bets send me into a loss.
70 staked, 3W 4L, -16.00
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No luck with today's result:
40 staked, 1W 3L, -11.50
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A couple of slight reversals from today's two, but still in profit
30 pts staked, 1W 2L, profit 2pts
Henan Jianye v Beijing Renhe kicks off 12:35 tomorrow.
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Return from today's 5 bets was 2 wins
50 pts staked, 2W 3L profit 7.5pts
So, a decent enough start. Tokyo v Sapporo kicks off at 8:00 tomorrow morning.
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Following closely on the heels of my China Super League spreads, we'll see how I can do with Japanese league football spreads;
All 10 point bets
GOAL SUPERIORITY Shimizu Shonan Bellmare 0.35 - 0.55 SELL V-Varen-Naqasaki Naqoja 0.2 - 0.4 BUY Tokyo Sapporo 0.25 - 0.45 SELL TOTAL GOALS Jubilo Vissel Kobe 2.45 - 2.65 BUY Veqalta Sendai Hiroshima 2.25 - 2.45 BUY Marinos Gamba 2.9 - 3.1 BUY Tokyo Sapporo 2.4 - 2.6 BUY All quotes are from Spreadex, can't see any J-League quotes with SPIN!
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Well, a lucky start maybe? First game on the list is a winner for me, ending 2-2, so a 10pt profit to start us off.
Looking forward now to the next two games, tomorrow at 12:35
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Pure speculation on my part, but thought I'd process a summer football programme to see me through my own football spread betting close season.
I have no betting records for this, but based upon as many past results as I could muster (but not as many as I'd like) I'm chancing my arm on the following . . .
All 10 point buy or sells for this weekend;
Home Team Advantage Beijing Guoan v Guangzhou R&F 1 - 1.2 (SPIN) SELL Guangzhou Evergrande v Hebei CFFC 0.55 - 0.75 BUY Total Goals Spread Shanghai Shenhua v Chongqing Lifan 2.85 - 3.05 BUY Henan Jianye v Beijing Renhe 2.15 - 2.35 BUY -
One last to game to add to my list of 25 point total goal sells.
Man United v Watford 3.15 - 3.35 (SPIN) SELL -
Thanks @harry_rag
Shifting markets to a much lower spread volatility in order retrieve my losses meant I'd never manage to recover the -539.55 using 1 point stakes, so near the end of the season too. I'm not there yet, but hopefully this will have been one of those occasions where 'speculate to accumulate' works out well.
There, that's probably totally jinxed my weekend final bets!
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With just 29.55pts to recover my final spread betting stakes are adjusted accordingly;
Final Premiership games 2017-18 (Sunday 13 May), 25 point total goal sells
Liverpool v Brighton 3.4 - 3.6 SELL Southampton v Man City 3.05 - 3.25 (SX) SELL Swansea v Stoke 2.7 - 2.9 SELL Tottenham v Leicester 3.35 - 3.55 SELL -
On 07/05/2018 at 7:39 PM, Data said:
Fortune favours the brave?Wednesday Premiership games, all 100pt sell total goals bets; games at ...
Chelsea at 3.1
Leicester at 3.1
Man City at 3.5
Spurs at 3.45A good night for my recovery prospects, In game order;
+110
-90
-55
+245210 pts profit this evening, now just -29.55 losses left to recover. Almost there!
Over Complicated?
in Footy Chat & Banter
Posted
Tomorrow;
Blackburn v Reading 1.73
Weekend;
Watford v Crystal Palace 2.50