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Posts posted by Data

  1. Missed another bet last weekend, but not a problem because it didn't do the business: Ipswich v Sheff Utd ended as a 0-0 draw.

    Since starting this thread we've had just 3 bets . . .
    won at 4.2

    plus 1.2 from 3 bets, ROI% of 40%

    Nothing this weekend, but I'll try and keep on top of things.

  2. 9 hours ago, Tiffy said:

    @Data  @harry_rag

    Any value in buying the Bradford Mini Performance tonight against Wigan?

    Wigan have a big game in the cup against Swansea at the weekend, and I'd be surprised if they didn't have 1 eye on this going into tonight's game.

    SX go 12-15 on the Bradford MP.  If the game finishes 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, then we could be in profit, especially with a few corners thrown in. 

    Don't confuse the "Performance" and "Mini Performance" markets. Mini Performance only looks at win/draw/lose, goals scored and clean sheet, with deductions for red cards.
    Whereas Performance markets also include corners and yellow card elements, and crucially has different points values for the elements

    A 0-0 result mini performance, each team only get 10 pts (5pts draw + 5pts clean sheet)


  3. Simply to say "Well, that didn't go to plan" would be somewhat of an understatement. Far worse than random in fact, a blind man on a galloping horse at midnight with no moon . . . .

    If you can keep your head when all around are losing theirs, you've obviously not fully grasped the situation. A loss of 129 points from the weekend drags this project down to a minus 168.80 to carry forward. Teresa May says "I'm not a quitter", which is hardly an endorsement of such an outlook on life, but hey ho, I've got a very deep hole to drag myself out of with not many weeks of the season to redress the situation.

    So, a fresh assessment of my selection methods is obviously needed here. With that in mind, tonight I'm going for what my gut tells me looks a risky punt, but my new method of appraisals suggests it looks to be value.

    Sheff Utd v Burton, buy Burton the 7-10 MP

  4. @harry_rag  @Tiffy

    For this weekend the matches that I have rated outside of the spread quotes are . . .

    MINI PERFORMANCES Home Away      
    Bournemouth v Tottenham 10 13 31 34   SellA  
    Stoke v Man City 6 9 39 42   SellA  
    Hull v Norwich 18 21 16 19     BuyA
    Wigan v Scnuthorpe 28 31 9 12     BuyA
    Forest Green v Notts County 16 19 20 23 BuyH SellA  
    Dag and Red v Tranmere 15 18 21 24   SellA  


    WINDEX Home Away  
    Ipswich v Sheff Utd 10 11.5 12 13.5 BUYH
    Forest Green v Notts County 9.5 11 12.4 13.9 BUYH
    Yeovil v Newport 11 12.5 10.9 12.4 BUYH
    Dag and Red v Tranmere 9 10.5 13.1 14.6 BUYH

    Mini performances are 1pt bets, Windex at 2 pts.

  5. 3 hours ago, Tiffy said:

    @waynecoyne @Data


    SX have the mini performance on Bolton at 12-15. They've not lost in 4, and Wednesday seem to be in aright mess at the moment. Do either of you think that there is any value in them to come away with something here?

    I am tempted to back either this or a fixed odds U2.5 goals for the match.

    On my figures I have their respective mini-perfs at 24.88 & 14.99. Inside, but at the upper end of both team's quotes.

  6. After the weekend's weather-hit fixture list I'm back on track - and adding some variety into the mix.

    Mini Performances: (1point bets)

    Fulham v Sheff Utd:  Sell the away side's 13-16
    Walsall v Rochdale: Buy home spread of 16-19 (SX)
    Mansfield v Lincoln: Buy home spread of 19-22

    WINDEX: (2pt bets)
    (each team 25pts a win, 10pts a draw, else 0pts)

    Birmingham v Middbro: Buy Home windex of 7.5-9 (SPIN)
    Fulham v Sheff Utd: Buy Home windex of 14.5-16 (SPIN)
    Walsall v Rochdale: Buy Home windex of 10.3-11.8 (SX)

  7. These are totally speculative mini performance buys in European football. I'm simply applying the same selection principles as I do with English leagues. But they were developed using English results data, and Euro leagues tend to have greater disparity between the top & bottom clubs.
    So, currently this is purely to allow me to see if the ideas work well in the European sphere.

      Home Away    
    Leganes v Las Palmas 23 26 10 13   BuyA
    Sevilla v Atletico Madrid 14 17 19 22 BuyH  
    Bordeaux v Nice 21 24 12 15   BuyA
    PSG v Marseille 40 43 8 11   BuyA
    Inter v Benevento 38 41 5 8   BuyA
    Anderlecht v Mouscron 34 37 7 10   BuyA
    Chaves v Estoril Praia 23 26 12 15   BuyA
    Portimonense v Porto 8 11 32 35 BuyH  
  8. A nice +14 from the game, not sure how you'd quantify +41 from 2 bets in terms of ROI though.

    Seems the more I research the luckier I get, only two bets I know but I'm quite optimistic about this. Not had a lucrative footy strategy for a few years, since I did rather well with total goal minutes spreads (unfortunately it didn't roll over well into the following season) However, I must temper my enthusiasm having had more football false dawns than I can count.

    What I really enjoy about spread betting is getting away from the stark binary yes/no, win/lose of traditional betting.

    Take the match last night . . .

    Kickoff: 0-0 I'm standing at -1 point
    14' Wolves 1-0, my position now -11
    25' Wolves 2-0, my position unchanged
    27' Score now 2-1, I'm -1 again
    90' 2-2, Norwich score in injury time, I finish +14

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