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Data

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Posts posted by Data

  1. I omitted to detail my methodology here.

    It's nothing complicated, merely red & yellow card records for each of home team, away team & referee from previous seasons, then via regression using Excel to best fit an estimate from these data.

    Use the regression equation on current season stats and compare against the spread. Anything with a 10 point 'edge' is a bet.

  2. Saturday 4 November Football Bookings Spreads

    Only looking at Sporting Index (SPIN) & Spreadex (SX)
    If quote is better with one firm it will be marked, otherwise the quote was the same with both (at the time of writing)

    Dortmund v Bayern Munich  SELL @ 43 (SX)
    Genoa v Sampdoria   SELL @ 74 (SPIN)
    La Coruna v Ath Madrid   SELL @ 54

  3. Acronym:  Here's Another Spread Betting Entry, Expertly Named.

    As primarily a spread bettor for over 20 years, here's my attempt to profit from the football spreads.

    Yield, or ROI doesn't easily fit the spread betting format, because unlike tradition betting, a specific risk/reward for each bet is often unknown. In my opinion ROI is also of very limited and/or no value whatsoever with traditional betting strategies either, but maybe that's a topic for another time.

    By far the majority of my spread betting, which is also true of other spread betters I know, is as a seller - or going low on the quotes. It is also true in my experience that a successful spread better has more winning bets than losing ones. In the vast majority of cases the spreader who shows a 50% strike rate will be breaking even, any less than that and you'll be a loser long term. My own 20 odd year regime as a spread winner shows me close to 66% strike rate, around 2 wins for every loss.

    I need to start with a bankroll. Again, in rough & ready terms for each bet a spread seller can, in the vast majority of cases hope to stay within a win or loss calculated by the width of the spread (e.g. 10-12 would = 2) multiplied by 15. Okay, it can occasionally go outside of these parameters, but we're dealing with unknowns here, and the 15 * spreadwidth should suffice.

    In this series I'll be looking at football bookings markets which have a spread width of 4, so my win/loss for each bet @ 1 point would be 60 points.

    For bankroll size I'll assume a worst case of an expected 50% strike rate. Using the common Excel formula for longest losing run viz: 500 bets, 0.5 strike rate,  =LN(500)/-LN((1-0.5)))  the result can be rounded up to 9. My starting bankroll will therefore be 60pts * 9 = 540pts.

    For each bet in the series I will report profit/loss to 1 point bets, and report this progress as a percentage of the starting bank, NOT each stake in turn, which IMHO will show a far more informative yield on what I needed to start this project.

    I've shown profits on other threads on this board, but we'll start with a level playing field here, no profits, no loss, start bank 540pts.

  4. 14 hours ago, harry_rag said:

    ... just look at the outcome of your bets).

    In my case there's a lot to be said for that approach to maintain my sanity. I NEVER watch if my money is riding on an event.

    Sky advertising tells us something like "It's more interesting/exciting when you've got a bet on". Not for me it ain't.

    I can cope with being several hundreds up or down after the results without showing or feeling emotion. But watching the situation unfold fuels my inner demons.

  5. I didn't, no issues with that however it was just a fraction of a point short of my trigger point.

    Always follow what my calculations tell me to do. I'll be on Premiership games from now on, so I'll likely see more action on the bookings front ~ a minimum of 4 home/away games is the basis of my figures.

  6. I've turned my attention to football bookings, an area I've never looked at before. Using the results from the football-data site I've found that combining each team's red/yellow card stats with those of the match referee is quite a powerful predictor.

    As a spread better mainly, I'm disappointed to find it's only televised matches and the Premiership have bookings spreads.

    On my figures (10pts yellow, 25pts red) Sunday's Derby v Forest looks way over-priced, with Spreadex going 50-54 (SI are 48-52). Not quite a bet against my trigger point but only fractionally short. I know there's a great deal of rivalry between these two close neighbours, is that the reason for the high quote? Looking back over the past 5 years of this fixture the average make-up has been 40 ~ so are local derbies always so over-rated?

    I've had a quick look at regular bookies for red/yellow card markets but failed to find one that quotes outside the Premiership and/or televised games. Does anyone know of a bookie who quotes for lower league bookings markets? (total cards - not which team most cards or odd/even cards)
     

  7. 15 hours ago, harry_rag said:

    It's always been a bit of a problem for recording the ROI on spread bets.

    Maybe the problem is the ROI/Yield figure we all seem to use regardless, I'm not sure it ever reveals the true profit/loss of a series of bets as well as excluding spread betting performance from the bigger picture.

    Perhaps it's time for an alternative measure of success/failure?  On a new thread though ... I'm thinking.

  8. Speaking purely on a personal level, psychology/mindset is key.

    Learn, if you can, to accept losing in exactly the same way as winning. When I see a punter fist the air after a win, I also see an indiscipline that would not work for me. If you're so elated with a win, then you're likely to be equally downcast with a loss. Such emotional roller-coasters can be the downfall of even the best punter. My personal test with this is if my wife can detect from my mood, actions, temper, if I've had a chunky win today or a heavy loss. She always has to ask. Adrenaline junkie I am not, but emotionally stagnent ... possibly!

    Contrary to other views, I don't believe an in-depth knowledge of your sport is necessary either, in fact in my case it can be a hinderence. I have much less of a knowledge of the sport which makes up the major part betting than the average bookies shop regular, but I probably have a better understanding of using and applying statistics.

    Crunching the numbers works for me, but gut feeling, based upon my expertise(??) is something to completely ignore. If the calculation says bet, but I feel it looks unlikely, I ignore the stats at my peril, and inevitably to the detriment of my bank.

    Also make sure you'll be able to bet what you want, when you want, a simple fact which unfortunately is a facility denied by all too many bookies. I've been primarily a spread bettor for the past 20 years and have found them to be very tolerant of winning accounts (Irish based Sportsspreads excepted).

    If you're looking to make 200-300 per month, bear in mind just what that entails. At a 10% margin you'd be staking 2000-3000 per month. Would that be by 20-30 x 100 stakes, or 2-300 x 10 stakes? To make a full-time return those figures get multiplied by 10. After any preparatory work, placing a bet takes time, placing many, many bets without making errors, takes a great deal of time.
     

  9. On 26/04/2017 at 9:48 AM, dm85 said:

    I have downloaded cgmbet free version and was asking for some input on if the full version was worth the money and if anyone uses it and what strategys they apply to pick winners.

    I've used CGMbet over an extended period (more than a single season) and, although a creditable project, at this still early stage in its development IMO it contains too many errors to base any serious betting on its outputs.

    I have every respect for the project's founder Mihai and wish him every success, he's quick to respond to queries and errors that are notified, but I feel it is still work-in-progress.

    I've now been using an alternative football database/analysis tool for almost 2 years now that is far superior and I wouldn't want to be without.

  10. On 17/09/2017 at 8:36 PM, harry_rag said:

    2 hotshots tries for a make up of 50 and a 26 point profit.

    1 winner from 3 spreadbets, Buys at 28, 38 and 24 have yielded make-ups of 25, 0 and 50 which means I'm now 15 points down with an ROI of -16.67%.

    Interesting use of an ROI figure with spread betting, which cannot be used if a maximum downside is not known.

    Do you restrict your spreads to only those which have an absolute worst=case?

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