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Data

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Posts posted by Data

  1. Still looking at this idea I dug a little deeper.
    ELO has to begin somewhere, a start point where each team's ratings are equal, from then forward the ratings evolve in line with results (or in this case the bookmaker odds). So I created the run from 2015-16 season and carried over the ratings from season to season allowing the ratings plenty of time to mature.
    Examining the results from English Premier through to National League and using criteria which dictates . . .
    If home team odds are <= away team odds, bet on home win, else bet away win.
    Seasons 2021-22 & 2022-23 using the above trigger gave a 50.3% success when applied to bookies odds (B365 as per football-data)
    The same set of games when applying to my ELO predicted odds gave a 49.2% success rate. Given that bookie odds are one of the most accurate result predictors, to be just 1.1% below that threshold I find encouraging.

    With the fact that bookie odds are very hard to beat when looking at the entire fixture list, I turned my attention to where these ELO odds differed most significantly from the book.
    There was little encouragement when looking at the games where ELO odds for a home win were much shorter than B365, at the other end however where ELO home odds were far higher did hit on enough good away returns to turn a decent profit. Very few bets however and a poor strike rate - still, a profit nevertheless. However, I'm always wary of profits from low strike rates.
    Bookie odds will move subject to where the money is going, so can we assume that where the odds offered are well below where ELO suggests they should be?
    Using the above situation did make a small gain over the past two seasons, although mainly odds-on it displays a pleasingly high strike rate, so may be worth following. The triggers discussed above give the following for this weekend. (B365 odds as per Football-data)
     

    Chelsea - Brentford   1.64 4.12 5.3 home bet  
    Arsenal - Sheffield United 1.13 9.52 21.2 home bet  
    Southampton - Birmingham 1.59 4.1 5.41 home bet  
    Leeds - Huddersfield 1.35 5.08 8.42 home bet  
    Sunderland - Norwich 2.07 3.62 3.37 home bet  
    Middlesbrough - Stoke 1.76 3.82 4.4 home bet  
    Ipswich - Plymouth   1.38 5.15 7.14 home bet  
    Cardiff - Preston   2.03 3.39 3.72 home bet  
    Blackpool - Peterboro 2.24 3.34 3.08 home bet  
    Stockport - Tranmere 1.32 5.01 8.68 home bet  
    Mansfield - Walsall   1.49 4.28 5.91 home bet  
    Gillingham - Newport County 1.88 3.47 3.94 home bet  
    Forest Green - Crawley Town 2.15 3.56 3.09 home bet  
    Doncaster - Grimsby 2.2 3.45 3.07 home bet  
    Barrow - Salford   1.93 3.52 3.7 home bet  
    Accrington - Colchester 2.07 3.54 3.27 home bet  
    Gateshead - Dag and Red 1.46 4.54 5.53 home bet  
    Liverpool - Nott'm Forest 1.27 6.29 10.22 home bet  
    Aston Villa - Luton   1.28 6.1 10.65 home bet  
    Morecambe - Wrexham 2.34 3.73 2.65   away win
  2. A little bit short notice with this invitation, but I've been playing a football correct score on-line football competition that I've entered for the last 3 seasons and have signed up again for the coming season.
    https://predict-the-score.webador.co.uk/

    It's a not-for-profit correct score competition that donates part of the proceeds to a food bank and the rest shared amongst competition winners. It does require a £30 entry fee and I find it great fun, maybe because I have been fortunate to be successful in each of my three terms. So I could do with some decent competition!

    The organiser is always looking to boost the number of competitors and this notification has been cleared with forum admins. However, the late in the day posting of this allows not much more than 24 hours to get yourselves registered. But I can give a heads up again next season in good time.

  3. The final two columns are an attempt to indicate the teams who are more or less likely to throw up unexpected results. It is a rather crude & rudimentary device, I hope others will point out it's shortcomings, I do admit it doesn't seem to be of much help!

    It is calculated as follows; Using the home odds for each preceding game during the season.
    If the home side wins BOTH teams are awarded 1- (homeodds/1)
    Otherwise BOTH teams are awarded (homeodds/1)
    The figure in the columns are the average of each team to date, home team first, then away team.

    Leeds to win against Man City anyone?  The machine thinks it's worthwhile !!?

    Bundesliga 20230505 1=2 A 1.67 4.4 5.8 Bayer Leverkusen v FC Koln A 232-255 -12 0.455 0.459   WIN @ 5.80
    Bundesliga 20230505 2=3 A 1.74 4.2 5.36 Mainz v Schalke H 278-237 52 0.465 0.407  
                               
    Premier League 20230506     3.6 3.64 2.25 Bournemouth v Chelsea H 294-226 79 0.387 0.45  
    Premier League 20230506     1.51 5.3 6.5 Liverpool v Brentford D 242-257 -4 0.448 0.487  
    Premier League 20230506     1.2 9.6 19 Manchester City v Leeds A 236-263 -16 0.27 0.468  
    Premier League 20230506     1.84 4.1 4.6 Tottenham v Crystal Palace A 226-259 -22 0.412 0.409  
    Premier League 20230506     3.15 3.4 2.55 Wolves v Aston Villa A 214-288 -63 0.443 0.444  
                               
    Bundesliga 20230506     3.53 3.4 2.34 Augsburg v Union Berlin A 273-294 -10 0.447 0.478  
    Bundesliga 20230506     1.95 4.1 4.17 B. Monchengladbach v Bochum A 256-313 -46 0.526 0.432  
    Bundesliga 20230506     4.2 3.79 1.97 Freiburg v RB Leipzig H 276-236 51 0.412 0.414  
    Bundesliga 20230506     3.2 3.69 2.35 Hertha Berlin v Stuttgart H 213-217 7 0.393 0.442  
    Bundesliga 20230506     2.4 3.8 3.05 Hoffenheim v Eintracht Frank A 258-295 -26 0.448 0.463  
    Bundesliga 20230506     9.5 6.7 1.35 Werder Bremen v Bayern Munic H 249-239 21 0.458 0.378  
                               
    Ligue 1 20230506     2.45 3.74 3.2 Lens v Marseille D 246-266 -9 0.376 0.35  
    Ligue 1 20230506     2.67 3.4 2.94 Nice v Rennes H 287-221 77 0.433 0.462  
    Ligue 1 20230506     3.55 3.98 2.12 Reims v Lille A 230-262 -21 0.433 0.411  
                               
    Serie A 20230506     2.05 3.62 4.4 AC Milan v Lazio H 216-212 15 0.428 0.433  
    Serie A 20230506     3.3 3.3 2.55 AS Roma v Inter H 155-134 32 0.403 0.399  
    Serie A 20230506     2.43 3.51 3.2 Cremonese v Spezia A 198-246 -37 0.384 0.378  
                               
    Premier League 20230507     2.5 3.95 2.88 Newcastle v Arsenal H 277-246 42 0.392 0.345  
    Premier League 20230507     3.6 3.9 2.13 West Ham v Manchester Utd A 208-245 -26 0.408 0.448  
                               
    League One 20230507     3.65 3.8 2.1 Burton v MK Dons H 238-205 44 0.468 0.428  
    League One 20230507     2.7 3.75 2.61 Barnsley v Peterborough H 276-230 57 0.443 0.465  
    League One 20230507     3 3.6 2.49 Bristol Rovers v Bolton H 260-257 14 0.455 0.451  
    League One 20230507     1.47 4.7 8.5 Cambridge Utd v Forest Green H 240-111 140 0.452 0.408  
    League One 20230507     2.65 3.75 2.81 Cheltenham v Charlton H 273-235 49 0.457 0.461  
    League One 20230507     2.45 3.85 3.1 Exeter v Morecambe A 244-279 -24 0.459 0.427  
    League One 20230507     7.5 5.1 1.44 Fleetwood v Ipswich H 276-258 29 0.461 0.339  
    League One 20230507     2.11 3.75 3.8 Lincoln v Shrewsbury H 303-244 70 0.47 0.449  
    League One 20230507     1.6 4.5 6 Oxford Utd v Accrington H 224-220 15 0.464 0.42  
    League One 20230507     4.4 4.2 1.8 Port Vale v Plymouth A 205-276 -60 0.458 0.456  
    League One 20230507     2.1 3.85 3.48 Portsmouth v Wycombe H 260-251 20 0.433 0.484  
    League One 20230507     2.65 3.69 2.75 Sheffield Wed v Derby H 242-226 27 0.384 0.424  
                               
    Bundesliga 20230507     1.55 5.3 6.3 Dortmund v Wolfsburg A 222-339 -106 0.403 0.444  
                               
    Ligue 1 20230507     3.61 3.55 2.24 AC Ajaccio v Toulouse A 151-227 -65 0.393 0.431  
    Ligue 1 20230507     2.47 3.45 3.21 Auxerre v Clermont A 244-315 -60 0.397 0.452  
    Ligue 1 20230507     6.5 5.1 1.52 Angers v Monaco A 100-204 -93 0.37 0.399  
    Ligue 1 20230507     1.72 4.5 4.9 Lyon v Montpellier A 229-332 -92 0.453 0.416  
    Ligue 1 20230507     2.46 3.55 3.12 Lorient v Brest H 247-246 12 0.46 0.407  
    Ligue 1 20230507     2.92 3.5 2.65 Nantes v Strasbourg H 245-153 103 0.404 0.439  
    Ligue 1 20230507     9.5 6.5 1.36 Troyes v Paris SG H 227-185 53 0.374 0.311  
                               
    Serie A 20230507     2.45 3.4 3.18 Atalanta v Juventus A 180-218 -27 0.409 0.418  
    Serie A 20230507     2.27 3.2 3.86 Lecce v Verona H 213-103 121 0.433 0.421  
    Serie A 20230507     1.92 3.91 4.33 Napoli v Fiorentina H 298-229 80 0.334 0.431  
    Serie A 20230507     2.05 3.45 4.3 Torino v Monza H 249-244 16 0.44 0.438  
                               
    Premier League 20230508     1.4 5.5 9.2 Brighton v Everton H 259-255 15 0.446 0.446  
    Premier League 20230508     2.76 3.75 2.68 Fulham v Leicester H 291-240 62 0.414 0.415  
    Premier League 20230508     2.2 3.67 3.54 Nottingham v Southampton H 270-262 19 0.407 0.404  
                               
    Championship 20230508     4.1 3.7 2.01 Birmingham v Sheffield Utd H 293-242 63 0.457 0.44  
    Championship 20230508     1.36 5.6 11 Burnley v Cardiff H 309-191 130 0.387 0.467  
    Championship 20230508     2.1 3.6 3.8 Huddersfield v Reading H 291-292 11 0.466 0.45  
    Championship 20230508     1.67 4.2 5.53 Luton v Hull H 273-271 14 0.441 0.474  
    Championship 20230508     2.56 3.72 2.96 Middlesbrough v Coventry H 275-270 17 0.479 0.458  
    Championship 20230508     1.95 3.86 4.07 Millwall v Blackburn H 267-254 25 0.493 0.512  
    Championship 20230508     1.57 4.75 6.5 Norwich v Blackpool D 192-210 -6 0.45 0.45  
    Championship 20230508     4 3.84 1.96 Preston v Sunderland H 254-254 12 0.458 0.464  
    Championship 20230508     2.45 3.66 3 QPR v Bristol City A 208-285 -65 0.479 0.472  
    Championship 20230508     3.2 3.72 2.36 Swansea v West Brom H 251-208 55 0.447 0.476  
    Championship 20230508     2.4 3.6 3.03 Watford v Stoke H 236-173 75 0.502 0.475  
    Championship 20230508     2.12 3.8 3.6 Wigan v Rotherham A 209-290 -69 0.434 0.475  
                               
    League Two 20230508     2.01 3.6 4.2 Bradford City v Leyton Orien H 260-270 1 0.486 0.438  
    League Two 20230508     3.4 3.4 2.39 Barrow v Stevenage H 284-118 177 0.502 0.41  
    League Two 20230508     4 3.71 2.05 Colchester v Mansfield H 262-223 50 0.459 0.483  
    League Two 20230508     1.91 3.71 4.5 Grimsby v AFC Wimbledon A 208-257 -38 0.481 0.472  
    League Two 20230508     2.05 3.8 3.8 Harrogate v Rochdale H 258-122 147 0.472 0.456  
    League Two 20230508     1.67 4 5.75 Newport v Crewe A 101-274 -162 0.451 0.464  
    League Two 20230508     1.9 3.88 4.33 Swindon v Crawley A 252-277 -14 0.486 0.47  
    League Two 20230508     1.5 4.5 7.5 Salford v Gillingham H 239-202 48 0.479 0.47  
    League Two 20230508     1.2 7.5 18 Stockport County v Hartlepoo A 185-240 -44 0.453 0.427  
    League Two 20230508     3.4 3.45 2.26 Sutton v Carlisle A 124-276 -141 0.469 0.448  
    League Two 20230508     5.25 4 1.71 Tranmere v Northampton A 276-304 -17 0.49 0.442  
    League Two 20230508     1.81 3.79 5 Walsall v Doncaster D 255-274 -8 0.467 0.489  
                               
    Serie A 20230508     2.35 3.35 3.85 Empoli v Salernitana H 231-234 8 0.454 0.434  
    Serie A 20230508     2.42 3.57 3.1 Sassuolo v Bologna A 242-265 -12 0.459 0.458  
    Serie A 20230508     1.55 4.5 7 Udinese v Sampdoria H 227-116 122 0.465 0.353  

     

  4. Further number crunching with this idea I've switched from maximising results to squeezing the best profits. Strike rates take a hit as would be expected, but overall the returns do show a slight improvement. Losing runs will be longer but the bitter pill sweetened somewhat by a smattering of juicy prices.

    What it churns out from two full seasons examining English leagues down to National League plus Sc Prem and major leagues from Germany, France, Italy & Spain is a remarkable (well it seems remarkable to me!) 6,418 bets showing a loss of just 4.09 points to average odds (at time of harvesting)

    Still looking for ways to home in on the best bets, but it appears that excluding some competitions might be of merit. Unsurprisingly I guess lower leagues prove the less reliable, eliminating English League 2 & National League would leave the method with a record of +78.94 from 4688 bets. Not enough to retire on, bet headed in the right direction.

    The first table below shows results from season 21-22. The second table is cumulative, i.e. the sum of BOTH seasons, up to last evening.

    2021-22 season profit/loss 22.35  38.52  -12.47  -21.96  -8.28  -15.16  -27.34  -24.72  -13.15  21.91 
      ROI 9.59% 8.48% -4.21% -4.90% -1.86% -5.25% -6.67% -8.27% -7.56% 7.61%
      league Bundesliga Championship LaLiga League One League Two Ligue 1 National League Premier League Sco Premiership Serie A
      %winners 38.63% 42.51% 36.49% 40.40% 41.57% 33.56% 42.68% 36.79% 42.53% 38.19%
                           
                           
    This season profit/loss 18.85  57.83  7.04  -3.09  -44.49  10.45  -38.54  -16.91  -9.48  14.25 
    (including above) ROI 4.36% 6.48% 1.30% -0.35% -5.07% 1.94% -4.52% -3.05% -2.99% 2.67%
      league Bundesliga Championship LaLiga League One League Two Ligue 1 National League Premier League Sco Premiership Serie A
      %winners 37.96% 40.43% 38.82% 41.48% 38.77% 37.55% 42.56% 38.09% 43.85% 38.46%

     

     

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