Data
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My analysis for the weekend; (average odds from OddsPortal this morning)
Bund 20230310 1.71 4.3 5.75 FC Koln v Bochum H Bund 20230311 1.88 4 4.44 Ein Fran v Stuttgar H Bund 20230311 2.99 3.62 2.52 Hertha v Mainz H Bund 20230311 1.46 5.4 7.8 RB Leipz v M'gladba H Bund 20230311 4.9 4.4 1.74 Schalke v Dortmund A Bund 20230311 1.16 12 22 Bayern M v Augsburg H Bund 20230312 3.45 4 2.2 Werder B v Leverkus A Bund 20230312 2.31 3.4 3.65 Wolfsbur v Union Be H Bund 20230312 2 3.86 4.1 Freiburg v Hoffenhe H -
73 weekend fixtures found 36 correct, a positive return of +2.03.
Over this series 218 correct from 464 games, a profit of +1.68. Or as stated earlier, round about half the picks correct and around break-even.
That's all for the time being while I subject the method to further scrutiny.
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An overabundance of draws in the 22 midweek games, not good for this prediction model, so a 2 point loss.
Bund 20230303 2.33 3.9 3.2 Dortmund v RB Leipz H 293-272 31 1~0 Cham 20230303 3.39 3.32 2.38 Hull v West Bro A 215-309 -84 0~2 Conf 20230303 1.77 3.95 4.6 Southend v Barnet A 256-283 -17 1~3 Prem 20230304 1.83 4 4.76 Brighton v West Ham H 266-248 29 1~0 Prem 20230304 1.69 4.18 5.8 Chelsea v Leeds H 265-259 17 1~0 Prem 20230304 3.52 3.54 2.28 Wolves v Tottenha A 259-287 -17 0~1 Prem 20230304 2.79 3.52 2.78 Southamp v Leiceste D 236-250 -3 1~1 Prem 20230304 1.51 5.1 7.5 Man City v Newcastl H 336-324 23 2~1 Prem 20230304 1.25 7.1 15 Arsenal v Bournemo H 311-242 80 2~0 Prem 20230304 2.13 3.5 4.1 Aston Vi v Crystal H 271-266 16 1~0 Bund 20230304 2.44 3.55 3.16 Bochum v Schalke H 234-203 41 2~1 Bund 20230304 1.98 4 4.12 Mainz v Hoffenhe H 261-228 43 3~1 Bund 20230304 1.98 3.47 4.6 Union Be v FC Koln H 275-215 70 2~0 Bund 20230304 7.5 5.4 1.46 Stuttgar v Bayern M A 239-288 -39 0~2 Bund 20230304 2.4 3.7 3.09 Augsburg v Werder B A 220-256 -26 0~2 Bund 20230304 2.57 3.73 2.82 M'gladba v Freiburg A 230-266 -26 0~1 ScPr 20230304 1.18 7.94 18.1 Rangers v Kilmarno H 275-204 82 1~0 ScPr 20230304 2.6 3.25 3 Ross Cou v Motherwe H 206-194 23 1~0 ScPr 20230304 3.23 3.53 2.3 Dundee U v Aberdeen A 204-250 -35 0~1 ScPr 20230304 1.79 3.85 5 Hearts v St Johns H 252-227 36 3~2 ScPr 20230304 3.06 3.3 2.57 Livingst v Hibernia H 245-253 3 1~0 Cham 20230304 2.35 3.36 3.39 Cardiff v Bristol A 242-270 -18 0~1 Cham 20230304 6.63 4 1.62 Blackpoo v Burnley A 229-323 -84 0~1 Cham 20230304 3.41 3.3 2.35 Huddersf v Coventry A 244-263 -9 0~1 Cham 20230304 2.05 3.6 4.1 Luton v Swansea H 276-257 29 1~0 Cham 20230304 1.48 4.65 8 Middlesb v Reading H 267-252 25 1~0 Cham 20230304 2.64 3.35 3.03 Millwall v Norwich A 258-279 -11 0~1 Cham 20230304 2.94 3.4 2.62 Rotherha v QPR H 243-211 42 2~0 Cham 20230304 2.35 3.38 3.37 Sunderla v Stoke H 256-225 41 1~0 Cham 20230304 1.86 3.6 5.11 Watford v Preston H 338-311 37 2~0 Cham 20230304 2.42 3.2 3.45 Wigan v Birmingh A 170-244 -64 0~1 Cham 20230304 3.85 3.6 2.1 Blackbur v Sheffiel A 248-344 -86 0~1 Lg 1 20230304 2.35 3.4 3.35 Accringt v Forest G H 214-210 14 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 3.5 3.6 2.19 Bristol v Barnsley A 196-265 -59 1~2 Lg 1 20230304 3.68 3.52 2.11 Cambridg v Portsmou A 178-249 -61 0~2 Lg 1 20230304 2.55 3.35 3.06 Cheltenh v Fleetwoo H 200-207 3 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 1.68 3.97 6 Derby v Shrewsbu H 261-248 23 2~1 Lg 1 20230304 1.34 6 11 Ipswich v Burton H 271-247 34 2~1 Lg 1 20230304 2.7 3.34 2.8 Lincoln v Oxford H 242-195 57 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 2.03 3.79 4 Plymouth v Charlton H 287-258 39 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 2.05 3.5 4.15 Port Val v Milton K D 198-213 -5 0~0 Lg 1 20230304 1.8 4 5 Sheffiel v Peterbor H 281-246 45 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 2.1 3.5 3.86 Wycombe v Exeter H 252-238 24 1~0 Lg 1 20230304 5.5 3.84 1.73 Morecamb v Bolton A 194-255 -51 1~2 Lg 2 20230304 1.91 3.5 4.5 Bradford v Colchest H 333-224 119 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 1.93 3.66 5.28 Carlisle v Grimsby H 254-263 1 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 2.9 3.3 2.64 Harrogat v Gillingh A 221-249 -18 0~2 Lg 2 20230304 2.07 3.4 4.33 Leyton O v Swindon A 279-348 -59 1~2 Lg 2 20230304 1.53 4.3 7 Northamp v Crawley H 292-236 66 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 4.75 3.6 1.83 Rochdale v Stevenag A 173-275 -92 1~2 Lg 2 20230304 2.3 3.5 3.3 Salford v Newport H 314-221 103 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 1.67 3.75 6 Stockpor v Doncaste H 246-248 8 2~0 Lg 2 20230304 1.73 3.86 5.5 Sutton v Crewe H 257-234 33 2~1 Lg 2 20230304 1.83 3.8 4.75 Tranmere v Hartlepo H 230-198 42 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 2.25 3.2 3.8 Walsall v Barrow H 270-262 18 1~0 Lg 2 20230304 3.36 3.26 2.35 AFC Wimb v Mansfiel A 253-280 -17 0~1 Conf 20230304 2.25 3.65 3.3 Aldersho v Torquay H 229-197 42 1~0 Conf 20230304 5 4.1 1.7 Bromley v Notts Co A 258-292 -24 1~2 Conf 20230304 2.17 3.6 3.5 Dag and v York H 244-188 66 2~1 Conf 20230304 2.94 3.72 2.35 Dorking v Halifax A 208-239 -21 0~1 Conf 20230304 3.55 3.6 2.18 Gateshea v Chesterf A 208-274 -56 1~2 Conf 20230304 2.88 3.35 2.5 Oldham v Boreham A 243-272 -19 0~1 Conf 20230304 3.38 3.6 2.23 Scnuthor v Eastleig H 254-247 17 2~1 Conf 20230304 1.63 4.5 5 Solihull v Maidston H 245-191 64 3~0 Conf 20230304 2.9 3.59 2.4 Wealdsto v Altrinch H 248-250 8 3~1 Conf 20230304 4 3.5 2.03 Yeovil v Woking H 261-259 12 1~0 Conf 20230304 6 4.35 1.54 Maidenhe v Wrexham A 254-283 -19 1~2 Prem 20230305 2.83 3.22 2.95 Nott'm F v Everton H 255-238 28 1~0 Prem 20230305 2.5 3.9 2.95 Liverpoo v Man Unit A 251-333 -71 0~1 Bund 20230305 2.51 3.65 2.94 Wolfsbur v Ein Fran A 257-274 -7 1~3 Bund 20230305 1.59 4.6 6.13 Leverkus v Hertha H 279-237 52 1~0 ScPr 20230305 13 6.5 1.26 St Mirre v Celtic A 258-290 -21 0~1 Prem 20230306 2.06 3.78 3.88 Brentfor v Fulham A 272-298 -15 0~1 For the weekend . . .
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The weekend group of 70 games yielded 40 wins (57.1%) for a 20.47 profit (at Friday's average odds)
Since starting this revisit we have predicted 369 games, with 172 correct (46.5%) and a return of +1.97
An awful lot of betting for a meagre return. Now if only there was a way of filtering the best bets.
22 midweek games . . .Cham 20230228 2.87 3.3 2.75 Preston v Coventry H 316-279 47 1~0 Cham 20230228 2.35 3.2 3.74 Luton v Millwall H 293-274 29 1~0 Lg 1 20230228 1.4 5.1 10 Derby v Cheltenh H 252-202 60 1~0 Lg 1 20230228 2.3 3.3 3.6 Lincoln v Milton K H 247-218 39 1~0 Lg 1 20230228 1.7 4.13 5.25 Peterbor v Charlton H 240-180 70 3~1 Lg 1 20230228 2.7 3.41 2.75 Portsmou v Bolton H 263-261 12 1~0 Lg 2 20230228 1.7 3.96 5.5 Tranmere v Crawley A 181-258 -67 0~2 Lg 2 20230228 3.95 3.2 2.17 AFC Wimb v Stevenag A 244-277 -23 0~1 Lg 2 20230228 2.74 3.24 2.9 Barrow v Salford A 264-316 -42 0~1 Lg 2 20230228 2.81 3.1 2.83 Gillingh v Bradford H 252-245 17 1~0 Lg 2 20230228 3.71 3.4 2.15 Harrogat v Northamp A 219-294 -65 0~2 Conf 20230228 1.91 3.8 4.03 Barnet v Oldham H 280-248 42 2~1 Conf 20230228 1.55 4.53 6.23 Boreham v Dorking H 287-245 52 2~0 Conf 20230228 2.1 3.5 3.79 Eastleig v York H 258-242 26 1~0 Conf 20230228 2.17 3.4 3.6 Halifax v Wealdsto A 244-263 -9 0~1 Conf 20230228 2.57 3.5 2.85 Maidenhe v Dag and H 264-254 20 1~0 Conf 20230228 2.25 3.65 3.15 Maidston v Scnuthor A 232-259 -17 0~1 Conf 20230228 2.85 3.5 2.5 Torquay v Bromley A 234-252 -8 0~1 Conf 20230228 1.79 3.95 4.8 Wrexham v Chesterf H 275-283 2 3~1 Conf 20230228 3 3.41 2.43 Yeovil v Altrinch A 246-264 -8 0~1 Prem 20230301 1.38 5.4 11 Arsenal v Everton H 295-231 75 2~0 Prem 20230301 1.52 4.8 7.1 Liverpoo v Wolves H 244-252 3 2~1 -
A Championship full house with Saturday's predictions . . .
game pred ratings Adv outcome Friday Av. Odds West Bro v Middlesb H 282-269 23 ✅ 2.48 Coventry v Sunderla H 281-280 11 ✅ 2.30 Birmingh v Luton A 209-294 -75 ✅ 2.63 Bristol v Hull H 248-243 15 ✅ 2.40 Burnley v Huddersf H 279-212 77 ✅ 1.42 Norwich v Cardiff H 247-220 37 ✅ 1.74 Preston v Wigan H 258-234 34 ✅ 2.42 QPR v Blackbur A 259-286 -17 ✅ 3.90 Reading v Blackpoo H 260-197 73 ✅ 2.13 Sheffiel v Watford H 281-272 19 ✅ 1.88 Stoke v Millwall A 189-276 -77 ✅ 3.25 But not too bad with yesterday's Bundesliga and League 1 either
game pred ratings Adv outcome Friday Av. Odds Hoffenhe v Dortmund A 239-294 -45 ✅ 1.82 RB Leipz v Ein Fran H 273-275 8 ✅ 1.75 Werder B v Bochum H 257-233 34 ✅ 2.10 Schalke v Stuttgar D 224-235 -1 ❌ FC Koln v Wolfsbur A 236-258 -12 ✅ 3.11 Hertha v Augsburg H 235-245 0 ✅ 2.20 Barnsley v Derby H 253-260 3 ✅ 2.95 Bolton v Port Val H 284-227 67 ✅ 1.68 Burton v Accringt A 186-242 -46 ❌ Charlton v Sheffiel A 258-280 -12 ✅ 2.01 Exeter v Cambridg H 210-177 43 ✅ 1.91 Fleetwoo v Morecamb H 248-233 25 ✅ 1.85 Forest G v Lincoln A 169-270 -91 ❌ Milton K v Ipswich A 172-270 -88 ✅ 1.60 Peterbor v Plymouth A 255-286 -21 ❌ Portsmou v Cheltenh H 258-229 39 ✅ 1.80 Shrewsbu v Wycombe A 220-261 -31 ❌ Oxford v Bristol A 184-223 -29 ✅ 4.00 -
And for the weekend . . .
Prem 20230224 2.60 3.37 3.21 Fulham v Wolves H 288-256 43 2~1
Bund 20230224 2.16 3.86 3.50 Mainz v M'gladba H 262-231 41 2~1
Prem 20230225 4.90 4.10 1.79 Crystal v Liverpoo H 266-251 26 2~1
Prem 20230225 2.62 3.31 3.06 Everton v Aston Vi H 238-231 18 1~0
Prem 20230225 2.02 3.72 4.10 Leeds v Southamp H 229-213 27 1~0
Prem 20230225 5.01 4.30 1.74 Leiceste v Arsenal A 250-310 -49 0~1
Prem 20230225 1.83 3.70 5.20 West Ham v Nott'm F A 228-255 -16 0~2
Prem 20230225 11.00 6.20 1.35 Bournemo v Man City A 239-336 -86 0~1Bund 20230225 4.20 4.50 1.82 Hoffenhe v Dortmund A 239-294 -45 1~2
Bund 20230225 1.75 4.30 4.90 RB Leipz v Ein Fran H 273-275 8 3~0
Bund 20230225 2.10 3.81 3.67 Werder B v Bochum H 257-233 34 1~0
Bund 20230225 3.05 3.50 2.52 Schalke v Stuttgar D 224-235 -1 2~2
Bund 20230225 2.43 3.60 3.11 FC Koln v Wolfsbur A 236-258 -12 0~1
Bund 20230225 2.20 3.76 3.47 Hertha v Augsburg H 235-245 0 2~1ScPr 20230225 2.55 3.30 3.06 Kilmarno v Motherwe H 245-187 69 1~0
ScPr 20230225 2.66 3.22 2.93 Ross Cou v Dundee U A 199-254 -44 0~1
ScPr 20230225 2.94 3.18 2.70 St Johns v St Mirre A 220-261 -30 0~1
ScPr 20230225 1.92 3.70 4.40 Aberdeen v Livingst H 253-246 18 1~0Cham 20230225 2.48 3.50 3.04 West Bro v Middlesb H 282-269 23 1~0
Cham 20230225 2.30 3.47 3.47 Coventry v Sunderla H 281-280 11 1~0
Cham 20230225 3.20 3.25 2.63 Birmingh v Luton A 209-294 -75 1~2
Cham 20230225 2.40 3.55 3.20 Bristol v Hull H 248-243 15 2~0
Cham 20230225 1.42 5.10 9.00 Burnley v Huddersf H 279-212 77 2~1
Cham 20230225 1.74 3.88 5.20 Norwich v Cardiff H 247-220 37 1~0
Cham 20230225 2.42 3.33 3.35 Preston v Wigan H 258-234 34 2~1
Cham 20230225 2.23 3.40 3.90 QPR v Blackbur A 259-286 -17 0~1
Cham 20230225 2.13 3.66 3.75 Reading v Blackpoo H 260-197 73 2~1
Cham 20230225 1.88 3.76 4.60 Sheffiel v Watford H 281-272 19 2~0
Cham 20230225 2.50 3.20 3.25 Stoke v Millwall A 189-276 -77 0~1Lg 1 20230225 2.95 3.40 2.60 Barnsley v Derby H 253-260 3 2~0
Lg 1 20230225 1.68 4.05 5.65 Bolton v Port Val H 284-227 67 1~0
Lg 1 20230225 1.85 4.00 4.50 Burton v Accringt A 186-242 -46 0~1
Lg 1 20230225 4.00 3.67 2.01 Charlton v Sheffiel A 258-280 -12 0~1
Lg 1 20230225 1.91 3.55 4.60 Exeter v Cambridg H 210-177 43 1~0
Lg 1 20230225 1.85 3.67 4.75 Fleetwoo v Morecamb H 248-233 25 1~0
Lg 1 20230225 2.90 3.30 2.68 Forest G v Lincoln A 169-270 -91 1~2
Lg 1 20230225 6.75 4.05 1.60 Milton K v Ipswich A 172-270 -88 0~1
Lg 1 20230225 2.06 3.75 3.70 Peterbor v Plymouth A 255-286 -21 0~1
Lg 1 20230225 1.80 3.90 4.80 Portsmou v Cheltenh H 258-229 39 1~0
Lg 1 20230225 2.74 3.30 2.81 Shrewsbu v Wycombe A 220-261 -31 0~1
Lg 1 20230225 1.97 3.92 4.00 Oxford v Bristol A 184-223 -29 1~2Lg 2 20230225 1.91 3.60 5.07 Stevenag v Tranmere H 275-251 34 1~0
Lg 2 20230225 1.83 3.88 4.75 Swindon v Harrogat H 237-241 6 1~0
Lg 2 20230225 4.20 3.40 2.11 Barrow v Stockpor H 260-265 5 2~1
Lg 2 20230225 3.20 3.20 2.50 Colchest v Northamp A 240-292 -42 0~2
Lg 2 20230225 4.00 3.44 2.05 Crawley v Carlisle H 256-254 12 2~1
Lg 2 20230225 2.44 3.35 3.22 Crewe v Rochdale H 257-193 74 1~0
Lg 2 20230225 2.63 3.60 2.86 Doncaste v Bradford H 258-243 25 1~0
Lg 2 20230225 2.40 3.15 3.47 Gillingh v AFC Wimb D 259-273 -4 0~0
Lg 2 20230225 3.10 3.30 2.49 Grimsby v Leyton O A 210-279 -59 0~1
Lg 2 20230225 3.47 3.25 2.29 Hartlepo v Walsall A 218-281 -53 1~2
Lg 2 20230225 2.05 3.55 3.92 Mansfiel v Salford H 278-284 4 1~0
Lg 2 20230225 2.38 3.30 3.27 Newport v Sutton A 241-267 -16 0~1Conf 20230225 2.33 3.61 2.97 Altrinch v Solihull H 250-245 15 1~0
Conf 20230225 1.97 3.82 3.62 Barnet v Aldersho H 283-229 64 2~0
Conf 20230225 1.61 4.15 5.87 Boreham v Scnuthor H 272-254 28 1~0
Conf 20230225 1.47 4.50 7.40 Chesterf v Oldham H 274-243 41 2~1
Conf 20230225 2.37 3.40 3.11 Eastleig v Bromley H 249-244 15 1~0
Conf 20230225 2.30 3.35 3.30 Halifax v Maidenhe D 239-251 -2 0~0
Conf 20230225 3.30 3.49 2.27 Maidston v Gateshea A 191-208 -7 0~3
Conf 20230225 3.65 3.58 2.10 Torquay v Southend A 197-256 -49 0~1
Conf 20230225 1.58 4.25 6.00 Woking v Wealdsto H 259-248 21 2~0
Conf 20230225 1.15 8.73 18.03 Wrexham v Dorking H 283-208 85 2~0
Conf 20230225 2.35 3.25 3.50 York v Yeovil A 188-261 -63 0~2
Conf 20230225 1.30 6.04 10.17 Notts Co v Dag and H 292-244 58 1~0Prem 20230226 2.63 3.56 2.96 Tottenha v Chelsea H 287-275 23 1~0
Bund 20230226 1.36 5.90 10.00 Bayern M v Union Be H 289-276 23 2~0
Bund 20230226 2.25 3.74 3.34 Freiburg v Leverkus H 267-246 31 1~0Cham 20230227 1.63 4.20 6.50 Swansea v Rotherha H 261-211 60 3~0
Lg 1 20230228 1.95 3.60 3.85 Peterbor v Charlton H 255-258 7 3~1
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A weekend that lived up to expectation. 50% strike rate and a positive return.
+6.42 from the 73 games with 37 winners and profits from 5 of the 7 leagues processed.
Let's see what the midweek games can do for us.
Cham 20230221 3.13 3.30 2.53 Millwall v Burnley H 276-279 7 2~0
Cham 20230221 1.75 4.00 5.37 Norwich v Birmingh H 247-196 61 2~1
Cham 20230221 3.80 3.50 2.21 Rotherha v Sunderla A 231-280 -39 0~2
Cham 20230221 2.23 3.44 3.75 Swansea v Stoke H 261-249 22 1~0
Cham 20230221 2.01 3.60 4.02 Blackbur v Blackpoo H 286-227 69 2~1Lg 1 20230221 3.54 3.45 2.25 Morecamb v Port Val D 255-269 -4 1~1
Lg 1 20230221 2.13 3.50 3.80 Fleetwoo v Cambridg H 270-195 85 1~0Lg 2 20230221 5.09 3.75 1.78 Rochdale v Stockpor A 199-284 -75 1~2
Lg 2 20230221 1.83 3.62 5.30 Walsall v Crewe H 262-239 33 3~0
Lg 2 20230221 1.94 3.70 4.16 Grimsby v Harrogat H 222-223 9 1~0
Lg 2 20230221 3.50 3.36 2.25 Hartlepo v Newport H 234-177 67 2~0Conf 20230221 2.17 3.68 3.30 Barnet v Altrinch H 283-250 43 2~0
Conf 20230221 1.55 4.40 6.50 Chesterf v Wealdsto H 274-248 36 2~0
Conf 20230221 2.15 3.77 3.38 Dag and v Aldersho H 244-229 25 1~0
Conf 20230221 2.45 3.72 2.84 Dorking v Torquay H 208-197 21 1~0
Conf 20230221 2.31 3.63 3.27 Gateshea v Oldham A 208-243 -25 1~3
Conf 20230221 2.75 3.45 2.66 Halifax v Solihull H 239-245 4 1~0
Conf 20230221 2.38 3.40 3.41 Maidenhe v Yeovil D 250-261 -1 1~1
Conf 20230221 2.85 3.59 2.53 Maidston v Eastleig A 191-249 -48 0~1
Conf 20230221 1.52 4.50 7.00 Notts Co v Southend H 292-256 46 1~0
Conf 20230221 1.85 3.75 4.50 Woking v Bromley H 259-244 25 1~0
Conf 20230221 1.22 7.50 15.00 Wrexham v Scnuthor H 283-254 39 3~1
Conf 20230221 3.14 3.40 2.48 York v Boreham A 188-272 -74 0~1 -
18/02/23 Stuttgart v Koln (2) 2.87 18/02/23 Accrington v Shrewsbury (2) 2.25 19/02/23 Motherwell v Hearts (2) 2.30 £6.50 Treble -
Yet another poor return midweek of -5.75 from the 46 matches. Ongoing, -21.31 from 204
Looking for a better end result from this weekend.
Bund 20230217 2.73 3.75 2.70 Augsburg v Hoffenhe H 221-229 2 1~0
Cham 20230217 2.10 3.34 4.30 Cardiff v Reading A 243-263 -10 0~1
Prem 20230218 2.70 3.65 2.83 Newcastl v Liverpoo H 314-251 73 1~0
Prem 20230218 4.60 3.90 1.87 Aston Vi v Arsenal A 241-300 -49 0~2
Prem 20230218 1.91 3.67 4.75 Brentfor v Crystal H 244-249 5 1~0
Prem 20230218 1.71 4.20 5.60 Brighton v Fulham H 275-278 7 1~0
Prem 20230218 1.40 5.00 10.08 Chelsea v Southamp H 266-216 60 1~0
Prem 20230218 2.55 3.40 3.10 Everton v Leeds H 240-229 21 1~0
Prem 20230218 11.00 5.80 1.35 Nott'm F v Man City A 255-325 -60 0~1
Prem 20230218 1.72 3.93 6.00 Wolves v Bournemo H 256-232 34 1~0Bund 20230218 3.23 3.63 2.36 Bochum v Freiburg A 237-253 -6 0~2
Bund 20230218 2.50 3.60 3.00 Stuttgar v FC Koln H 231-216 25 2~0
Bund 20230218 3.41 3.76 2.22 Wolfsbur v RB Leipz H 261-253 18 2~0
Bund 20230218 1.64 4.70 5.30 Ein Fran v Werder B H 253-257 6 2~0
Bund 20230218 7.50 6.00 1.43 M'gladba v Bayern M A 231-285 -44 0~2ScPr 20230218 1.18 8.70 19.00 Celtic v Aberdeen H 295-254 51 2~1
ScPr 20230218 2.34 3.30 3.50 Dundee U v St Johns A 246-264 -8 1~2
ScPr 20230218 1.77 4.00 5.03 Hibernia v Kilmarno H 248-246 12 1~0
ScPr 20230218 9.00 5.15 1.38 Livingst v Rangers A 264-282 -8 1~2
ScPr 20230218 1.95 3.48 4.70 St Mirre v Ross Cou H 245-243 12 1~0Cham 20230218 3.21 3.40 2.47 Blackpoo v Stoke A 230-255 -15 0~1
Cham 20230218 2.72 3.30 2.87 Huddersf v Birmingh A 245-278 -23 0~1
Cham 20230218 2.20 3.40 3.82 Hull v Preston H 246-221 35 2~1
Cham 20230218 3.55 3.36 2.29 Luton v Burnley H 290-275 25 1~0
Cham 20230218 1.67 4.11 5.80 Middlesb v QPR H 268-243 35 1~0
Cham 20230218 3.52 3.53 2.21 Rotherha v Coventry H 244-254 0 1~0
Cham 20230218 2.10 3.57 3.90 Sunderla v Bristol H 274-243 41 2~1
Cham 20230218 3.82 3.60 2.10 Wigan v Norwich A 221-249 -18 0~1
Cham 20230218 2.83 3.40 2.67 Millwall v Sheffiel A 259-283 -14 0~1
Cham 20230218 2.85 3.50 2.64 Blackbur v Swansea H 284-258 36 2~1Lg 1 20230218 1.67 4.10 5.70 Plymouth v Fleetwoo H 296-218 88 2~1
Lg 1 20230218 2.49 3.40 3.10 Port Val v Exeter H 237-247 0 1~0
Lg 1 20230218 1.46 4.75 8.40 Sheffiel v Milton K H 259-202 67 1~0
Lg 1 20230218 3.00 3.51 2.45 Wycombe v Bolton A 261-300 -29 1~2
Lg 1 20230218 3.30 3.40 2.37 Accringt v Shrewsbu A 228-260 -22 0~1
Lg 1 20230218 2.31 3.58 3.40 Bristol v Bolton A 231-300 -59 1~2
Lg 1 20230218 3.42 3.50 2.25 Cambridg v Oxford A 193-234 -31 1~2
Lg 1 20230218 3.63 3.40 2.21 Cheltenh v Barnsley A 215-281 -56 0~1
Lg 1 20230218 1.62 4.25 6.00 Derby v Charlton A 256-276 -10 0~1
Lg 1 20230218 1.29 6.00 12.00 Ipswich v Forest G H 270-219 61 1~0
Lg 1 20230218 2.89 3.30 2.70 Lincoln v Portsmou D 247-258 -1 1~1
Lg 1 20230218 4.94 4.05 1.74 Morecamb v Peterbor H 245-255 0 1~0Lg 2 20230218 2.23 3.40 3.68 Stockpor v Stevenag H 297-276 31 1~0
Lg 2 20230218 2.05 3.40 4.20 Sutton v Doncaste H 248-255 3 2~1
Lg 2 20230218 2.87 3.16 2.82 Tranmere v Mansfiel A 260-291 -21 1~2
Lg 2 20230218 2.38 3.40 3.28 Walsall v Newport H 261-262 9 1~0
Lg 2 20230218 2.06 3.42 4.00 Northamp v Grimsby H 303-234 79 2~1
Lg 2 20230218 1.90 3.61 4.50 AFC Wimb v Hartlepo H 269-233 46 2~0
Lg 2 20230218 2.06 3.50 4.10 Bradford v Barrow H 280-242 48 1~0
Lg 2 20230218 2.08 3.50 4.00 Carlisle v Colchest H 281-250 41 1~0
Lg 2 20230218 2.05 3.51 4.00 Harrogat v Crewe A 228-244 -6 0~1
Lg 2 20230218 1.58 4.20 6.52 Leyton O v Crawley H 270-232 48 1~0
Lg 2 20230218 3.21 3.25 2.48 Rochdale v Gillingh A 204-246 -32 1~2
Lg 2 20230218 2.35 3.52 3.09 Salford v Swindon H 264-258 16 2~0Conf 20230218 6.70 4.70 1.46 Aldersho v Wrexham A 228-269 -31 1~2
Conf 20230218 3.31 3.42 2.24 Altrinch v Woking A 239-268 -19 1~2
Conf 20230218 1.67 4.30 4.80 Bromley v Dorking H 252-235 27 3~0
Conf 20230218 2.31 3.40 3.30 Eastleig v Maidenhe H 246-249 7 1~0
Conf 20230218 1.95 3.82 3.80 Oldham v Maidston H 241-211 40 3~2
Conf 20230218 3.32 3.62 2.15 Scnuthor v Dag and H 252-244 18 1~0
Conf 20230218 3.95 3.95 1.94 Solihull v Chesterf A 244-273 -19 1~2
Conf 20230218 1.80 3.90 4.75 Southend v Gateshea H 255-207 58 2~0
Conf 20230218 3.20 3.65 2.30 Torquay v Barnet A 226-279 -43 1~3
Conf 20230218 2.46 3.43 2.95 Wealdsto v York H 245-221 34 1~0
Conf 20230218 8.50 4.75 1.42 Yeovil v Notts Co A 260-291 -21 1~2
Conf 20230218 1.90 3.50 4.75 Boreham v Halifax H 279-225 64 1~0Prem 20230219 1.88 3.90 4.75 Tottenha v West Ham H 277-228 59 1~0
Prem 20230219 1.66 4.50 5.50 Man Unit v Leiceste H 303-260 53 2~1Bund 20230219 1.37 6.00 9.50 Dortmund v Hertha H 274-238 46 1~0
Bund 20230219 1.88 4.10 4.30 Leverkus v Mainz H 250-242 18 2~0
Bund 20230219 1.64 4.00 6.60 Union Be v Schalke H 256-204 62 2~1ScPr 20230219 3.29 3.60 2.32 Motherwe v Hearts A 231-259 -18 1~2
Cham 20230220 2.78 3.45 2.75 Watford v West Bro H 289-260 39 2~1
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Little to write home about from that weekend. Only 22 correct results from 59, way below what I'd expect, giving an overall loss of 12.58.
Ongoing that leaves account showing 158 bets and -15.56.Undaunted, let's see if the midweek fixtures can do better . . .
Cham 20230214 2.30 3.34 3.50 Birmingh v Cardiff H 242-238 14 2~0
Cham 20230214 2.60 3.33 3.00 Coventry v Millwall H 254-256 8 1~0
Cham 20230214 1.87 3.81 4.80 Norwich v Hull A 246-268 -12 0~1
Cham 20230214 2.50 3.35 3.10 QPR v Sunderla H 258-268 0 2~1
Cham 20230214 1.70 4.00 5.60 Burnley v Watford H 284-256 38 3~0
Cham 20230214 2.02 3.45 4.20 Reading v Rotherha H 244-244 10 3~0Lg 1 20230214 3.73 3.56 2.11 Accringt v Wycombe A 228-261 -23 0~3
Lg 1 20230214 1.69 3.95 5.75 Bolton v Milton K H 281-212 79 1~0
Lg 1 20230214 6.00 4.20 1.60 Bristol v Ipswich A 236-270 -24 0~2
Lg 1 20230214 2.75 3.26 2.85 Cambridg v Cheltenh D 203-215 -2 0~0
Lg 1 20230214 1.42 4.71 8.93 Derby v Lincoln D 256-270 -4 0~0
Lg 1 20230214 2.33 3.30 3.53 Exeter v Shrewsbu D 267-280 -3 1~1
Lg 1 20230214 3.65 3.58 2.18 Fleetwoo v Peterbor A 205-262 -47 1~2
Lg 1 20230214 2.88 3.45 2.58 Forest G v Charlton A 219-284 -55 1~2
Lg 1 20230214 2.51 3.60 2.86 Oxford v Plymouth A 234-286 -42 0~1
Lg 1 20230214 3.54 3.40 2.25 Port Val v Barnsley H 237-239 8 1~0
Lg 1 20230214 1.78 3.85 5.00 Portsmou v Burton H 258-241 27 2~1
Lg 1 20230214 1.32 6.00 14.00 Sheffiel v Morecamb H 280-246 44 1~0Lg 2 20230214 2.67 3.22 3.00 Bradford v Tranmere H 280-249 41 1~0
Lg 2 20230214 2.23 3.28 3.82 Carlisle v Mansfiel H 281-263 28 1~0
Lg 2 20230214 2.75 3.20 2.88 Colchest v Walsall A 217-261 -34 0~1
Lg 2 20230214 2.38 3.30 3.31 Crewe v Hartlepo H 234-222 22 1~0
Lg 2 20230214 2.30 3.30 3.57 Doncaste v Barrow H 284-229 65 2~1
Lg 2 20230214 2.69 3.14 3.00 Gillingh v Grimsby A 246-267 -11 0~2
Lg 2 20230214 1.67 3.95 6.50 Leyton O v Rochdale H 300-244 66 1~0
Lg 2 20230214 3.15 3.24 2.52 Newport v Stevenag A 212-316 -94 0~1
Lg 2 20230214 1.95 3.40 4.70 Northamp v AFC Wimb H 313-268 55 2~1
Lg 2 20230214 1.93 3.60 4.33 Salford v Harrogat H 255-218 47 1~0
Lg 2 20230214 1.42 5.06 9.00 Stockpor v Crawley H 247-233 24 1~0
Lg 2 20230214 2.28 3.35 3.54 Sutton v Swindon A 238-259 -11 1~2Conf 20230214 4.50 3.83 1.85 Aldersho v Chesterf A 228-273 -35 1~2
Conf 20230214 2.21 3.60 3.27 Altrinch v Bromley H 249-252 7 2~1
Conf 20230214 2.22 3.45 3.40 Boreham v Solihull H 271-264 17 1~0
Conf 20230214 2.22 3.68 3.20 Dag and v Eastleig H 244-246 8 2~1
Conf 20230214 1.44 5.10 6.40 Notts Co v Barnet H 291-282 19 1~0
Conf 20230214 2.55 3.45 2.85 Oldham v Gateshea H 257-207 60 2~0
Conf 20230214 1.70 3.80 5.42 Southend v Halifax H 255-228 37 1~0
Conf 20230214 1.62 4.20 5.50 Wrexham v Woking H 282-267 25 1~0Prem 20230215 3.05 3.65 2.51 Arsenal v Man City H 290-282 19 2~1
ScPr 20230215 2.67 3.28 3.00 Motherwe v St Mirre A 231-265 -23 1~2
Cham 20230215 1.90 3.45 4.90 Stoke v Huddersf A 226-245 -9 0~1
Cham 20230215 1.70 4.10 5.30 Swansea v Blackpoo H 257-230 37 2~0
Cham 20230215 2.10 3.52 3.90 Sheffiel v Middlesb H 295-265 40 1~0
Cham 20230215 1.72 3.88 5.60 West Bro v Blackbur H 260-249 21 1~0
Cham 20230215 2.06 3.50 4.14 Bristol v Wigan A 242-261 -9 1~2
Cham 20230215 3.02 3.15 2.68 Preston v Luton A 271-297 -16 0~2
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11/02/23 Hoffeniem v Leverkusen (2) 2.30 11/02/23 Crystal P v Brighton (2) 2.00 11/02/23 Cardiff v Middlesbro (2) 2.10 £13 Treble -
Football forecasting can be very frustrating, last night who would have predicted that Leeds with no win in their previous 7 would go 2 up at Old Trafford? Anyhow, the midweek 10 reduced the ongoing return by 0.59. Overall then to date, 99 bets yielding a minus 2.98 return from 45 winners.
This outcome has been pretty much as I'd expected. A return to the odds displayed close to break even and a strike rate just below 50%. That is not the bad news it may first appear. Average odds by their nature ensure prices both above and below should be easily available. Alternatively, using exchanges will provide better returns, even with commission taken into account.
Having a fixture list where predictions break even at average odds is a far better base line to work from than the bare list. Added to which strike rates close to 50% give a better chance of avoiding those ruinous long losing runs.
Beware the false prophets!
In order to keep this realistic I gather average odds from OddsPortal. Not fool proof of course, grab them one hour earlier or later and market dynamics have changed, getting more evident as kick off time gets closer.
What are not used here are 'best' prices, although many who report on theoretical results do so using 'best' (including now & then in these forums). Best odds are far more volatile than average, added to which are they really ever available? The logistics of maintaining dozens of accounts to gain these odds in the first instance would be overwhelming - but in football betting there are SO many simultaneous start times to cope with as well.
Just for interest I replaced my average odds for OddsPortal best odds over the 99 bets. Surprise, surprise it turns a small loss into a small profit (but in my view the cheats way of massaging results)
Of course, best odds also reflect prices as they were at the 'off', not the best available in the days leading up to the game.
Something for the weekend Sir? (you'd have to be over a certain age to recognise this saying)
Bund 20230210 3.69 3.75 1.97 Schalke v Wolfsbur A 234-258 -14 0~2
Cham 20230210 3.63 3.35 2.07 Birmingh v West Bro A 234-260 -16 1~2
Prem 20230211 3.76 3.50 2.04 Crystal v Brighton H 266-244 33 2~1
Prem 20230211 1.93 3.58 4.11 Fulham v Nott'm F H 258-256 13 2~1
Prem 20230211 3.35 3.62 2.14 Leiceste v Tottenha A 230-287 -46 0~1
Prem 20230211 2.95 3.17 2.58 Southamp v Wolves A 226-259 -22 0~1
Prem 20230211 6.48 4.12 1.55 Bournemo v Newcastl A 242-324 -71 0~3
Prem 20230211 3.34 3.31 2.27 West Ham v Chelsea A 208-255 -36 0~2
Prem 20230211 1.41 4.87 7.99 Arsenal v Brentfor H 310-243 78 3~2Bund 20230211 1.84 3.71 4.30 Freiburg v Stuttgar H 267-237 40 2~0
Bund 20230211 2.98 3.66 2.29 Hoffenhe v Leverkus H 239-246 3 1~0
Bund 20230211 1.81 3.86 4.24 Mainz v Augsburg H 243-221 32 1~0
Bund 20230211 3.97 4.19 1.80 Werder B v Dortmund H 257-264 3 2~0
Bund 20230211 1.73 3.73 5.09 RB Leipz v Union Be H 263-256 17 2~0
Bund 20230211 1.13 9.53 17.49 Bayern M v Bochum H 292-243 59 2~0Cham 20230211 2.11 3.42 3.43 Blackpoo v Rotherha D 230-244 -4 1~1
Cham 20230211 2.91 3.41 2.37 Bristol v Norwich A 231-260 -19 1~2
Cham 20230211 1.53 4.00 6.44 Burnley v Preston A 282-324 -32 0~1
Cham 20230211 3.43 3.39 2.12 Cardiff v Middlesb A 223-288 -55 1~2
Cham 20230211 2.23 3.37 3.19 Coventry v Luton A 244-297 -43 0~1
Cham 20230211 2.59 3.15 2.83 QPR v Millwall A 212-249 -27 0~1
Cham 20230211 1.88 3.50 4.16 Sheffiel v Swansea H 345-258 97 1~0
Cham 20230211 2.04 3.33 3.72 Stoke v Hull A 226-261 -25 0~1
Cham 20230211 1.88 3.49 4.18 Sunderla v Reading H 261-234 37 2~1
Cham 20230211 1.94 3.45 3.97 Watford v Blackbur H 339-249 100 1~0
Cham 20230211 2.30 3.18 3.26 Wigan v Huddersf H 261-245 26 2~1Lg 1 20230211 1.52 4.14 5.88 Barnsley v Cambridg H 280-183 107 1~0
Lg 1 20230211 2.48 3.40 2.69 Burton v Exeter A 222-247 -15 0~2
Lg 1 20230211 1.94 3.54 3.69 Charlton v Fleetwoo H 244-229 25 2~1
Lg 1 20230211 2.14 3.28 3.40 Cheltenh v Accringt H 225-228 7 1~0
Lg 1 20230211 2.11 3.34 3.38 Ipswich v Sheffiel H 270-259 21 3~0
Lg 1 20230211 2.22 3.31 3.16 Lincoln v Bristol A 231-261 -20 1~2
Lg 1 20230211 2.47 3.30 2.77 Milton K v Oxford H 212-174 48 1~0
Lg 1 20230211 2.42 3.31 2.81 Morecamb v Forest G H 233-189 54 1~0
Lg 1 20230211 2.22 3.40 3.11 Peterbor v Bolton H 255-264 1 1~0
Lg 1 20230211 1.97 3.53 3.63 Plymouth v Portsmou H 274-258 26 2~1
Lg 1 20230211 2.37 3.12 3.09 Shrewsbu v Port Val H 260-237 33 2~1
Lg 1 20230211 3.28 3.42 2.13 Wycombe v Derby A 241-274 -23 0~1Lg 2 20230211 2.86 3.16 2.48 AFC Wimb v Carlisle D 258-271 -3 1~1
Lg 2 20230211 2.32 3.07 3.20 Barrow v Newport H 233-216 27 1~0
Lg 2 20230211 2.26 3.20 3.17 Crawley v Crewe D 231-244 -3 0~0
Lg 2 20230211 2.05 3.32 3.57 Grimsby v Colchest H 236-217 29 1~0
Lg 2 20230211 4.02 3.57 1.85 Harrogat v Stockpor A 228-247 -9 0~1
Lg 2 20230211 3.31 3.24 2.18 Hartlepo v Sutton A 229-248 -9 1~2
Lg 2 20230211 1.78 3.54 4.44 Mansfiel v Gillingh H 263-245 28 1~0
Lg 2 20230211 3.68 3.27 2.03 Rochdale v Northamp A 200-303 -93 1~2
Lg 2 20230211 1.79 3.50 4.46 Stevenag v Bradford H 286-280 16 1~0
Lg 2 20230211 2.02 3.37 3.62 Swindon v Doncaste H 259-237 32 3~0
Lg 2 20230211 2.14 3.21 3.42 Tranmere v Salford A 241-275 -24 0~2
Lg 2 20230211 2.51 2.98 2.97 Walsall v Leyton O A 261-290 -19 0~2Conf 20230211 2.61 3.35 2.46 Dag and v Solihull A 244-264 -10 0~2
Conf 20230211 1.90 3.31 3.85 Woking v Boreham H 267-271 6 1~0
Conf 20230211 1.20 6.15 10.71 Wrexham v Wealdsto H 282-247 45 2~1
Conf 20230211 3.13 3.57 2.04 Chesterf v Notts Co D 273-285 -2 2~2Prem 20230212 1.24 6.65 12.16 Man City v Aston Vi H 282-251 42 2~1
Prem 20230212 3.96 3.86 1.88 Leeds v Man Unit A 239-283 -33 0~1Bund 20230212 2.82 3.59 2.41 Hertha v M'gladba A 235-261 -16 0~1
Bund 20230212 2.72 3.56 2.51 FC Koln v Ein Fran A 226-278 -42 1~2Prem 20230213 1.53 4.38 6.23 Liverpoo v Everton H 251-207 55 1~0
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Despite a 6 out of 6 Sunday & Monday the profit gained served only to reduce the losses suffered during Saturday's car crash of a day. It was a day of many shock results I'm sure will have been reflected among the PL Tipster Competition.
The +5.75 profit from the preceding midweek has therefor been eroded down to a less than satisfactory -2.39Just a few league games midweek as we make an effort to return to the black.
Cham 20230207 2.19 3.23 3.46 Blackpoo v Huddersf H 230-238 2 1~0
Lg 1 20230207 1.92 3.48 3.88 Port Val v Accringt H 237-228 19 1~0
Lg 2 20230207 4.08 3.25 1.94 Crewe v Leyton O A 234-271 -27 1~2
Lg 2 20230207 2.84 3.17 2.49 Doncaste v Tranmere A 236-260 -14 0~1Conf 20230207 2.10 3.34 3.20 Chesterf v Woking H 273-268 15 2~0
Conf 20230207 2.29 3.28 2.90 Halifax v Barnet A 236-282 -36 0~2
Conf 20230207 4.08 3.34 1.84 Maidenhe v Southend H 249-255 4 1~0
Conf 20230207 2.34 3.37 2.74 Oldham v Dag and H 242-244 8 2~0
Conf 20230207 2.93 3.36 2.23 York v Solihull A 231-268 -27 0~2Prem 20230208 1.48 4.76 6.30 Man Unit v Leeds H 283-239 55 2~1
- harry_rag and thecurlyone1
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04/02/23 L. Orient v AFC Wimb (2) 4.33 05/02/23 Nottm Forest v Leeds (1) 2.60 £6.00 Double -
The midweek results 31Jan-01 Feb
game pred ratings diff outcome AvOdds Ross Cou v Hibernia A 213-248 -24 Luton v Cardiff H 297-218 89 RESULT 1.95 Crewe v Stockpor D 234-247 -3 RESULT 3.74 Salford v Walsall H 255-261 4 RESULT 2.31 Carlisle v Barrow H 277-228 59 RESULT 2.1 Aldersho v Boreham A 218-271 -43 RESULT 2.4 Eastleig v Barnet A 246-282 -26 RESULT 2.96 Solihull v Notts Co A 264-285 -11 RESULT 1.52 Woking v Torquay H 267-248 29 Yeovil v Wealdsto H 260-237 33 Motherwe v St Johns A 201-224 -12 RESULT 3.7 Aberdeen v St Mirre H 254-255 10 Celtic v Livingst H 285-245 51 RESULT 1.1 Hearts v Rangers D 258-272 -3 Kilmarno v Dundee U A 218-246 -17 Oxford v Barnsley D 270-280 0 16 games, returned 21.78 to 1pt level stakes.
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Prem 20230203 1.63 4.05 5.59 Chelsea v Fulham H 255-258 8 2~1
Bund 20230203 4.26 3.92 1.81 Augsburg v Leverkus A 221-246 -15 1~2
Cham 20230203 1.77 3.63 4.64 West Bro v Coventry H 250-244 16 1~0
Conf 20230203 3.05 3.36 2.15 Scnuthor v Barnet A 243-282 -29 0~2
Prem 20230204 1.35 5.16 9.31 Brighton v Bournemo H 284-226 69 2~0
Prem 20230204 1.40 4.77 8.40 Man Unit v Crystal H 283-266 28 1~0
Prem 20230204 4.01 3.81 1.89 Wolves v Liverpoo D 259-271 -1 0~0
Prem 20230204 1.64 3.84 5.81 Newcastl v West Ham H 324-218 117 1~0
Prem 20230204 8.08 4.66 1.42 Everton v Arsenal A 207-310 -92 0~2
Prem 20230204 1.99 3.62 3.81 Aston Vi v Leiceste H 251-230 32 2~1
Prem 20230204 1.89 3.64 4.23 Brentfor v Southamp D 243-256 -2 1~1Bund 20230204 1.68 4.16 4.80 Dortmund v Freiburg H 264-267 7 1~0
Bund 20230204 1.48 4.62 6.46 Ein Fran v Hertha H 278-235 53 1~0
Bund 20230204 1.99 3.39 4.07 Union Be v Mainz H 256-243 23 2~1
Bund 20230204 1.53 4.62 5.73 M'gladba v Schalke H 261-234 37 3~1
Bund 20230204 3.74 3.74 1.97 FC Koln v RB Leipz A 226-263 -27 1~2
Bund 20230204 2.86 3.62 2.40 Bochum v Hoffenhe H 243-239 14 3~1ScPr 20230204 2.18 3.20 3.43 Livingst v Kilmarno H 250-249 12 1~0
ScPr 20230204 1.13 8.40 18.04 Rangers v Ross Cou H 282-243 50 1~0
ScPr 20230204 2.73 3.27 2.56 St Mirre v Hibernia H 265-258 18 1~0
ScPr 20230204 2.03 3.45 3.58 Aberdeen v Motherwe H 254-231 34 1~0
ScPr 20230204 1.68 3.89 4.76 Hearts v Dundee U H 261-246 26 1~0Cham 20230204 4.92 3.77 1.70 Rotherha v Sheffiel A 244-345 -91 0~2
Cham 20230204 3.07 3.17 2.41 Huddersf v QPR H 238-212 36 1~0
Cham 20230204 2.16 3.24 3.51 Hull v Cardiff H 296-218 88 2~1
Cham 20230204 2.26 3.22 3.29 Luton v Stoke H 297-226 81 3~1
Cham 20230204 1.54 4.03 6.28 Middlesb v Blackpoo H 330-230 110 1~0
Cham 20230204 2.09 3.33 3.61 Millwall v Sunderla H 249-257 2 2~0
Cham 20230204 2.43 3.20 3.00 Preston v Bristol H 324-231 103 2~1
Cham 20230204 2.84 3.20 2.55 Reading v Watford A 233-339 -96 0~1
Cham 20230204 1.85 3.54 4.33 Swansea v Birmingh H 258-229 39 1~0
Cham 20230204 2.54 3.32 2.76 Norwich v Burnley H 280-282 8 1~0Lg 1 20230204 1.50 4.15 6.22 Bolton v Cheltenh H 264-235 39 1~0
Lg 1 20230204 2.18 3.43 3.16 Bristol v Milton K H 261-212 59 1~0
Lg 1 20230204 6.77 4.42 1.44 Cambridg v Ipswich A 242-270 -18 0~2
Lg 1 20230204 1.31 5.08 9.23 Derby v Morecamb H 274-233 51 2~1
Lg 1 20230204 2.36 3.27 2.95 Exeter v Charlton H 247-244 13 3~1
Lg 1 20230204 2.14 3.29 3.35 Fleetwoo v Burton H 229-228 11 2~1
Lg 1 20230204 3.77 3.64 1.90 Forest G v Peterbor A 189-255 -56 1~2
Lg 1 20230204 1.99 3.40 3.65 Oxford v Shrewsbu H 270-260 20 2~1
Lg 1 20230204 2.48 3.25 2.80 Port Val v Wycombe H 251-241 20 1~0
Lg 1 20230204 2.39 3.35 2.85 Portsmou v Barnsley A 258-280 -12 0~1
Lg 1 20230204 1.68 3.72 4.97 Sheffiel v Plymouth D 259-274 -5 2~2
Lg 1 20230204 2.25 3.28 3.14 Accringt v Lincoln H 228-231 7 2~0Lg 2 20230204 2.57 3.19 2.72 Bradford v Mansfiel H 280-261 29 2~1
Lg 2 20230204 1.63 3.80 5.18 Carlisle v Harrogat H 277-218 69 1~0
Lg 2 20230204 2.55 3.13 2.79 Colchest v Barrow H 217-228 -1 1~0
Lg 2 20230204 3.31 3.26 2.16 Crewe v Grimsby H 234-237 7 1~0
Lg 2 20230204 1.89 3.59 3.84 Doncaste v Hartlepo H 236-229 17 2~1
Lg 2 20230204 1.93 3.37 3.96 Gillingh v Crawley H 246-233 23 1~0
Lg 2 20230204 1.81 3.37 4.52 Leyton O v AFC Wimb A 250-268 -8 1~2
Lg 2 20230204 2.05 3.21 3.68 Northamp v Walsall H 303-261 52 2~1
Lg 2 20230204 1.95 3.36 3.85 Salford v Rochdale H 255-194 71 1~0
Lg 2 20230204 1.73 3.47 4.91 Stockpor v Tranmere H 247-245 12 1~0
Lg 2 20230204 3.19 3.19 2.26 Sutton v Stevenag A 238-266 -18 1~2
Lg 2 20230204 2.54 3.21 2.75 Newport v Swindon A 210-259 -39 0~1Conf 20230204 1.93 3.68 3.39 Aldersho v Dorking A 218-235 -7 0~1
Conf 20230204 3.10 3.27 2.18 Boreham v Chesterf H 271-273 8 1~0
Conf 20230204 1.92 3.48 3.60 Bromley v Maidenhe H 242-239 13 1~0
Conf 20230204 3.23 3.22 2.14 Eastleig v Woking A 246-267 -11 0~2
Conf 20230204 2.47 3.11 2.76 Oldham v Halifax H 252-228 34 1~0
Conf 20230204 1.98 3.58 3.30 Solihull v Gateshea H 264-197 77 2~1
Conf 20230204 1.55 3.93 5.35 Southend v York H 255-221 44 1~0
Conf 20230204 8.20 5.12 1.30 Torquay v Notts Co A 248-285 -27 1~3
Conf 20230204 2.56 3.41 2.47 Wealdsto v Dag and H 237-233 14 1~0
Conf 20230204 2.07 3.41 3.23 Yeovil v Maidston H 260-200 70 1~0
Conf 20230204 4.30 4.16 1.63 Altrinch v Wrexham A 242-282 -30 0~2Prem 20230205 4.43 4.13 1.74 Tottenha v Man City H 287-282 16 1~0
Prem 20230205 2.64 3.41 2.69 Nott'm F v Leeds H 238-239 10 1~0Bund 20230205 2.08 3.72 3.39 Stuttgar v Werder B A 237-257 -10 0~1
Bund 20230205 5.00 4.58 1.60 Wolfsbur v Bayern M A 258-292 -24 0~2ScPr 20230205 12.27 6.44 1.21 St Johns v Celtic A 214-295 -70 0~1
Cham 20230206 1.96 3.44 3.88 Blackbur v Wigan D 246-261 -5 1~1
The scores to the extreme right are derived from my prediction (HDA) then using the most frequent score from the two teams results this season. They are there as a gesture, not as a serious attempt to make a profit!
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Returning to a method I've mentioned on here some time ago, although for me it has never gone away, just been further developed to squeeze out a better performance. Simply put, examining all a season's league results to date and finding the best fit ratings that would have explained those results. Then apply these to the next set of games.
When I first began with this I was minimising the error from previous games of goals scored by each team, the actual results were irrelevant. It worked up to a point, but did not come close to a profit (I use average odds for my profit loss summaries)
I've now switched to maximising the number of correct results (HDA) I can elicit by calculating ratings for past results. The best fit can be derived by using a separate rating for home and away performances, unfortunately this does not give the best results when extrapolated. Indeed, a single rating for a team's overall strength, although not fitting past results so well, does do better going forward.
When such apparent anomalies occur I can't be alone in digging around for a good reason why this should be. And here is where we can easily fall into the trap of shoe horning a theory to support the findings. I've always considered that teams can have seemingly different fortunes when on the road than their home results would support. But maybe, just maybe, the fixture list may conspire to give easier games at home or away which skew our expectations for certain teams - or is it merely a statistical variance within the tolerances of what can be expected?
Anyway, I favoured the single rating for each team because it shows over many seasons to be a superior predictor of future outcomes. Not many midweek games, but a sample nevertheless. I'll endeavour to upload the weekend's predictions sometime on Friday.
ScPr 20230131 3.69 3.47 1.99 Ross Cou v Hibernia A 213-248 -24 Cham 20230131 1.95 3.4 4.2 Luton v Cardiff H 297-218 89 Lg 2 20230131 5.28 3.74 1.63 Crewe v Stockpor D 234-247 -3 Lg 2 20230131 2.31 3.14 3.1 Salford v Walsall H 255-261 4 Lg 2 20230131 2.1 3.27 3.46 Carlisle v Barrow H 277-228 59 Conf 20230131 2.79 3.21 2.4 Aldersho v Boreham A 218-271 -43 Conf 20230131 2.22 3.36 2.96 Eastleig v Barnet A 246-282 -26 Conf 20230131 5.07 4.31 1.52 Solihull v Notts Co A 264-285 -11 Conf 20230131 1.41 4.51 6.46 Woking v Torquay H 267-248 29 Conf 20230131 2.43 3.12 2.82 Yeovil v Wealdsto H 260-237 33 ScPr 20230201 2.06 3.22 3.7 Motherwe v St Johns A 201-224 -12 ScPr 20230201 1.95 3.43 3.83 Aberdeen v St Mirre H 254-255 10 ScPr 20230201 1.1 9.36 21.3 Celtic v Livingst H 285-245 51 ScPr 20230201 5.11 4.3 1.57 Hearts v Rangers D 258-272 -3 ScPr 20230201 2.38 3.22 3 Kilmarno v Dundee U A 218-246 -17 Lg 1 20230201 2.4 3.4 2.75 Oxford v Barnsley D 270-280 0 -
21/01/23 Bremen v Wolfsburg (2) 2.15 21/01/23 Troyes v Lens (2) 1.65 £9.00 Double -
21/01/23 Leicester v Brighton (2) 2.05 21/01/23 C. Palace v Newcastle (2) 1.83 £14.00 Double -
14-Jan-23 Accrington v Bristol R (2) 2.37 15-Jan-23 Angers v Clermont (2) 2.90 £20 Double -
07-Jan-23 Gillingham v Leicester (1) 15.00 £5 Single -
31-Dec-22 Brighton v Arsenal (2) 2.10 02-Jan-23 QPR v Sheffield Utd (2) 2.40 £33 Double -
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Fader, Sorry, must be a mammoth task keeping this list up to date which is much appreciated.
But have you missed adding my Belgium v Canada 6pts to my total?
Division 8 - Season 3 Week 1 Selections
in Football Tipster Competition
Posted