Data
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Posts posted by Data
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Apologies, some of the above fixture list got massively screwed up somewhere along the cut / paste / transfer.
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Still looking at this idea I dug a little deeper.
ELO has to begin somewhere, a start point where each team's ratings are equal, from then forward the ratings evolve in line with results (or in this case the bookmaker odds). So I created the run from 2015-16 season and carried over the ratings from season to season allowing the ratings plenty of time to mature.
Examining the results from English Premier through to National League and using criteria which dictates . . .
If home team odds are <= away team odds, bet on home win, else bet away win.
Seasons 2021-22 & 2022-23 using the above trigger gave a 50.3% success when applied to bookies odds (B365 as per football-data)
The same set of games when applying to my ELO predicted odds gave a 49.2% success rate. Given that bookie odds are one of the most accurate result predictors, to be just 1.1% below that threshold I find encouraging.With the fact that bookie odds are very hard to beat when looking at the entire fixture list, I turned my attention to where these ELO odds differed most significantly from the book.
There was little encouragement when looking at the games where ELO odds for a home win were much shorter than B365, at the other end however where ELO home odds were far higher did hit on enough good away returns to turn a decent profit. Very few bets however and a poor strike rate - still, a profit nevertheless. However, I'm always wary of profits from low strike rates.
Bookie odds will move subject to where the money is going, so can we assume that where the odds offered are well below where ELO suggests they should be?
Using the above situation did make a small gain over the past two seasons, although mainly odds-on it displays a pleasingly high strike rate, so may be worth following. The triggers discussed above give the following for this weekend. (B365 odds as per Football-data)
Chelsea - Brentford 1.64 4.12 5.3 home bet Arsenal - Sheffield United 1.13 9.52 21.2 home bet Southampton - Birmingham 1.59 4.1 5.41 home bet Leeds - Huddersfield 1.35 5.08 8.42 home bet Sunderland - Norwich 2.07 3.62 3.37 home bet Middlesbrough - Stoke 1.76 3.82 4.4 home bet Ipswich - Plymouth 1.38 5.15 7.14 home bet Cardiff - Preston 2.03 3.39 3.72 home bet Blackpool - Peterboro 2.24 3.34 3.08 home bet Stockport - Tranmere 1.32 5.01 8.68 home bet Mansfield - Walsall 1.49 4.28 5.91 home bet Gillingham - Newport County 1.88 3.47 3.94 home bet Forest Green - Crawley Town 2.15 3.56 3.09 home bet Doncaster - Grimsby 2.2 3.45 3.07 home bet Barrow - Salford 1.93 3.52 3.7 home bet Accrington - Colchester 2.07 3.54 3.27 home bet Gateshead - Dag and Red 1.46 4.54 5.53 home bet Liverpool - Nott'm Forest 1.27 6.29 10.22 home bet Aston Villa - Luton 1.28 6.1 10.65 home bet Morecambe - Wrexham 2.34 3.73 2.65 away win -
Reading v Portsmouth (2) 2.00 Exeter v Lincoln (2) 3.20 £43 double -
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Clermont v Paris SG (2) 1.44 Mainz v Leverkusen (2) 1.55 £27 double -
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02/09/23 Oxford v Port Vale (1) 1.80 02/09/23 Portsmouth v Peterbro (1) 2.37 £10.00 Double -
26/08/23 Mansfield v Stockport (1) 2.20 26/08/23 Peterborough v Derby (1) 2.60 £10.00 Double -
I'm in here I'm sure! . . . and I'm going with
Fulham
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19/08/23 Reading v Stevenage (2) 2.75 19/08/23 Crawley v Gillingham (X) 3.10 £10.00 Double -
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A little bit short notice with this invitation, but I've been playing a football correct score on-line football competition that I've entered for the last 3 seasons and have signed up again for the coming season.
https://predict-the-score.webador.co.uk/It's a not-for-profit correct score competition that donates part of the proceeds to a food bank and the rest shared amongst competition winners. It does require a £30 entry fee and I find it great fun, maybe because I have been fortunate to be successful in each of my three terms. So I could do with some decent competition!
The organiser is always looking to boost the number of competitors and this notification has been cleared with forum admins. However, the late in the day posting of this allows not much more than 24 hours to get yourselves registered. But I can give a heads up again next season in good time.
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Did anyone step up to help you to at least try to semi-automate the massive task of collating weekly results, wins & losses?
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@avongirl Now I'm sure there would be someone on here with the expertise and time to help sort you an automated or semi-automated app to help with the task?
Anybody?? 🤞
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Liverpool v Aston Villa (2) 6.50 Nottm Forest v Arsenal (1) 5.00 £10 Double -
Well, not a great example there. 21 points lost from 75 games! Such is life.
Sticking with this idea though, still an overall profit from two full seasons.Onward & (hopefully) upward!
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The final two columns are an attempt to indicate the teams who are more or less likely to throw up unexpected results. It is a rather crude & rudimentary device, I hope others will point out it's shortcomings, I do admit it doesn't seem to be of much help!
It is calculated as follows; Using the home odds for each preceding game during the season.
If the home side wins BOTH teams are awarded 1- (homeodds/1)
Otherwise BOTH teams are awarded (homeodds/1)
The figure in the columns are the average of each team to date, home team first, then away team.Leeds to win against Man City anyone? The machine thinks it's worthwhile !!?
Bundesliga 20230505 1=2 A 1.67 4.4 5.8 Bayer Leverkusen v FC Koln A 232-255 -12 0.455 0.459 WIN @ 5.80 Bundesliga 20230505 2=3 A 1.74 4.2 5.36 Mainz v Schalke H 278-237 52 0.465 0.407 Premier League 20230506 3.6 3.64 2.25 Bournemouth v Chelsea H 294-226 79 0.387 0.45 Premier League 20230506 1.51 5.3 6.5 Liverpool v Brentford D 242-257 -4 0.448 0.487 Premier League 20230506 1.2 9.6 19 Manchester City v Leeds A 236-263 -16 0.27 0.468 Premier League 20230506 1.84 4.1 4.6 Tottenham v Crystal Palace A 226-259 -22 0.412 0.409 Premier League 20230506 3.15 3.4 2.55 Wolves v Aston Villa A 214-288 -63 0.443 0.444 Bundesliga 20230506 3.53 3.4 2.34 Augsburg v Union Berlin A 273-294 -10 0.447 0.478 Bundesliga 20230506 1.95 4.1 4.17 B. Monchengladbach v Bochum A 256-313 -46 0.526 0.432 Bundesliga 20230506 4.2 3.79 1.97 Freiburg v RB Leipzig H 276-236 51 0.412 0.414 Bundesliga 20230506 3.2 3.69 2.35 Hertha Berlin v Stuttgart H 213-217 7 0.393 0.442 Bundesliga 20230506 2.4 3.8 3.05 Hoffenheim v Eintracht Frank A 258-295 -26 0.448 0.463 Bundesliga 20230506 9.5 6.7 1.35 Werder Bremen v Bayern Munic H 249-239 21 0.458 0.378 Ligue 1 20230506 2.45 3.74 3.2 Lens v Marseille D 246-266 -9 0.376 0.35 Ligue 1 20230506 2.67 3.4 2.94 Nice v Rennes H 287-221 77 0.433 0.462 Ligue 1 20230506 3.55 3.98 2.12 Reims v Lille A 230-262 -21 0.433 0.411 Serie A 20230506 2.05 3.62 4.4 AC Milan v Lazio H 216-212 15 0.428 0.433 Serie A 20230506 3.3 3.3 2.55 AS Roma v Inter H 155-134 32 0.403 0.399 Serie A 20230506 2.43 3.51 3.2 Cremonese v Spezia A 198-246 -37 0.384 0.378 Premier League 20230507 2.5 3.95 2.88 Newcastle v Arsenal H 277-246 42 0.392 0.345 Premier League 20230507 3.6 3.9 2.13 West Ham v Manchester Utd A 208-245 -26 0.408 0.448 League One 20230507 3.65 3.8 2.1 Burton v MK Dons H 238-205 44 0.468 0.428 League One 20230507 2.7 3.75 2.61 Barnsley v Peterborough H 276-230 57 0.443 0.465 League One 20230507 3 3.6 2.49 Bristol Rovers v Bolton H 260-257 14 0.455 0.451 League One 20230507 1.47 4.7 8.5 Cambridge Utd v Forest Green H 240-111 140 0.452 0.408 League One 20230507 2.65 3.75 2.81 Cheltenham v Charlton H 273-235 49 0.457 0.461 League One 20230507 2.45 3.85 3.1 Exeter v Morecambe A 244-279 -24 0.459 0.427 League One 20230507 7.5 5.1 1.44 Fleetwood v Ipswich H 276-258 29 0.461 0.339 League One 20230507 2.11 3.75 3.8 Lincoln v Shrewsbury H 303-244 70 0.47 0.449 League One 20230507 1.6 4.5 6 Oxford Utd v Accrington H 224-220 15 0.464 0.42 League One 20230507 4.4 4.2 1.8 Port Vale v Plymouth A 205-276 -60 0.458 0.456 League One 20230507 2.1 3.85 3.48 Portsmouth v Wycombe H 260-251 20 0.433 0.484 League One 20230507 2.65 3.69 2.75 Sheffield Wed v Derby H 242-226 27 0.384 0.424 Bundesliga 20230507 1.55 5.3 6.3 Dortmund v Wolfsburg A 222-339 -106 0.403 0.444 Ligue 1 20230507 3.61 3.55 2.24 AC Ajaccio v Toulouse A 151-227 -65 0.393 0.431 Ligue 1 20230507 2.47 3.45 3.21 Auxerre v Clermont A 244-315 -60 0.397 0.452 Ligue 1 20230507 6.5 5.1 1.52 Angers v Monaco A 100-204 -93 0.37 0.399 Ligue 1 20230507 1.72 4.5 4.9 Lyon v Montpellier A 229-332 -92 0.453 0.416 Ligue 1 20230507 2.46 3.55 3.12 Lorient v Brest H 247-246 12 0.46 0.407 Ligue 1 20230507 2.92 3.5 2.65 Nantes v Strasbourg H 245-153 103 0.404 0.439 Ligue 1 20230507 9.5 6.5 1.36 Troyes v Paris SG H 227-185 53 0.374 0.311 Serie A 20230507 2.45 3.4 3.18 Atalanta v Juventus A 180-218 -27 0.409 0.418 Serie A 20230507 2.27 3.2 3.86 Lecce v Verona H 213-103 121 0.433 0.421 Serie A 20230507 1.92 3.91 4.33 Napoli v Fiorentina H 298-229 80 0.334 0.431 Serie A 20230507 2.05 3.45 4.3 Torino v Monza H 249-244 16 0.44 0.438 Premier League 20230508 1.4 5.5 9.2 Brighton v Everton H 259-255 15 0.446 0.446 Premier League 20230508 2.76 3.75 2.68 Fulham v Leicester H 291-240 62 0.414 0.415 Premier League 20230508 2.2 3.67 3.54 Nottingham v Southampton H 270-262 19 0.407 0.404 Championship 20230508 4.1 3.7 2.01 Birmingham v Sheffield Utd H 293-242 63 0.457 0.44 Championship 20230508 1.36 5.6 11 Burnley v Cardiff H 309-191 130 0.387 0.467 Championship 20230508 2.1 3.6 3.8 Huddersfield v Reading H 291-292 11 0.466 0.45 Championship 20230508 1.67 4.2 5.53 Luton v Hull H 273-271 14 0.441 0.474 Championship 20230508 2.56 3.72 2.96 Middlesbrough v Coventry H 275-270 17 0.479 0.458 Championship 20230508 1.95 3.86 4.07 Millwall v Blackburn H 267-254 25 0.493 0.512 Championship 20230508 1.57 4.75 6.5 Norwich v Blackpool D 192-210 -6 0.45 0.45 Championship 20230508 4 3.84 1.96 Preston v Sunderland H 254-254 12 0.458 0.464 Championship 20230508 2.45 3.66 3 QPR v Bristol City A 208-285 -65 0.479 0.472 Championship 20230508 3.2 3.72 2.36 Swansea v West Brom H 251-208 55 0.447 0.476 Championship 20230508 2.4 3.6 3.03 Watford v Stoke H 236-173 75 0.502 0.475 Championship 20230508 2.12 3.8 3.6 Wigan v Rotherham A 209-290 -69 0.434 0.475 League Two 20230508 2.01 3.6 4.2 Bradford City v Leyton Orien H 260-270 1 0.486 0.438 League Two 20230508 3.4 3.4 2.39 Barrow v Stevenage H 284-118 177 0.502 0.41 League Two 20230508 4 3.71 2.05 Colchester v Mansfield H 262-223 50 0.459 0.483 League Two 20230508 1.91 3.71 4.5 Grimsby v AFC Wimbledon A 208-257 -38 0.481 0.472 League Two 20230508 2.05 3.8 3.8 Harrogate v Rochdale H 258-122 147 0.472 0.456 League Two 20230508 1.67 4 5.75 Newport v Crewe A 101-274 -162 0.451 0.464 League Two 20230508 1.9 3.88 4.33 Swindon v Crawley A 252-277 -14 0.486 0.47 League Two 20230508 1.5 4.5 7.5 Salford v Gillingham H 239-202 48 0.479 0.47 League Two 20230508 1.2 7.5 18 Stockport County v Hartlepoo A 185-240 -44 0.453 0.427 League Two 20230508 3.4 3.45 2.26 Sutton v Carlisle A 124-276 -141 0.469 0.448 League Two 20230508 5.25 4 1.71 Tranmere v Northampton A 276-304 -17 0.49 0.442 League Two 20230508 1.81 3.79 5 Walsall v Doncaster D 255-274 -8 0.467 0.489 Serie A 20230508 2.35 3.35 3.85 Empoli v Salernitana H 231-234 8 0.454 0.434 Serie A 20230508 2.42 3.57 3.1 Sassuolo v Bologna A 242-265 -12 0.459 0.458 Serie A 20230508 1.55 4.5 7 Udinese v Sampdoria H 227-116 122 0.465 0.353 -
Further number crunching with this idea I've switched from maximising results to squeezing the best profits. Strike rates take a hit as would be expected, but overall the returns do show a slight improvement. Losing runs will be longer but the bitter pill sweetened somewhat by a smattering of juicy prices.
What it churns out from two full seasons examining English leagues down to National League plus Sc Prem and major leagues from Germany, France, Italy & Spain is a remarkable (well it seems remarkable to me!) 6,418 bets showing a loss of just 4.09 points to average odds (at time of harvesting)
Still looking for ways to home in on the best bets, but it appears that excluding some competitions might be of merit. Unsurprisingly I guess lower leagues prove the less reliable, eliminating English League 2 & National League would leave the method with a record of +78.94 from 4688 bets. Not enough to retire on, bet headed in the right direction.
The first table below shows results from season 21-22. The second table is cumulative, i.e. the sum of BOTH seasons, up to last evening.
2021-22 season profit/loss 22.35 38.52 -12.47 -21.96 -8.28 -15.16 -27.34 -24.72 -13.15 21.91 ROI 9.59% 8.48% -4.21% -4.90% -1.86% -5.25% -6.67% -8.27% -7.56% 7.61% league Bundesliga Championship LaLiga League One League Two Ligue 1 National League Premier League Sco Premiership Serie A %winners 38.63% 42.51% 36.49% 40.40% 41.57% 33.56% 42.68% 36.79% 42.53% 38.19% This season profit/loss 18.85 57.83 7.04 -3.09 -44.49 10.45 -38.54 -16.91 -9.48 14.25 (including above) ROI 4.36% 6.48% 1.30% -0.35% -5.07% 1.94% -4.52% -3.05% -2.99% 2.67% league Bundesliga Championship LaLiga League One League Two Ligue 1 National League Premier League Sco Premiership Serie A %winners 37.96% 40.43% 38.82% 41.48% 38.77% 37.55% 42.56% 38.09% 43.85% 38.46%
Division 1 - 2023/24 Season 2 Week 1 Selections
in Football Tipster Competition
Posted
Burnley v West Ham (2) 2.00
Swindon v Mansfield (2) 2.00
£25 double