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Data

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Posts posted by Data

  1. Midweek games saw a £350 stake return £310 winnings for a net -£40.

    Bringing our total stake / return to £730 staked with £805 winnings, a 10% ROI

    The synopsis below;

                result     pred CS odds
    11.2.20 19:45   Barnsley   Birmingham 0 1   2~2  
    11.2.20 19:45   Blackburn   Hull 3 0   1~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Brentford   Leeds 1 1   1~0  
    11.2.20 19:45   Nottingham   Charlton 0 1   2~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Swansea   Q.P.R. 0 0   1~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Wigan   Middlesbrough 2 2   1~1  
    12.2.20 19:45   Bristol City   Derby 3 2   2~1  
    12.2.20 19:45   Huddersfield   Cardiff 0 3   1~1  
    12.2.20 19:45   Luton   Sheffield Wednesday 1 0   2~1  
    12.2.20 19:45   Millwall   Fulham 1 1   1~0  
    12.2.20 20:00   Reading   West Bromwich 1 2   0~1  
    12.2.20 20:00   Stoke   Preston 0 2   1~1  
                         
    11.2.20 19:45   AFC Wimbledon   Ipswich 0 0   1~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Blackpool   Gillingham 2 3   1~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Burton   Oxford 2 2   1~0  
    11.2.20 19:45   Coventry   Portsmouth 1 0   1~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Doncaster   Bolton 2 1   2~1 8.5
    11.2.20 19:45   Lincoln   Milton Keynes 1 1   1~1 6.5
    11.2.20 19:45   Peterborough   Southend 4 0   2~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Shrewsbury   Accrington Stanley 0 2   1~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Sunderland   Rochdale 3 0   1~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Tranmere   Bristol Rovers 0 0   1~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Wycombe   Fleetwood Town 0 1   3~1  
                         
    11.2.20 19:45   Bradford   Stevenage 3 1   1~0  
    11.2.20 19:45   Carlisle   Cheltenham 0 1   0~1 7.5
    11.2.20 19:45   Colchester   Grimsby 2 3   2~0  
    11.2.20 19:45   Crewe   Crawley Town 2 1   2~1 8.5
    11.2.20 19:45   Exeter   Oldham 5 1   1~0  
    11.2.20 19:45   Forest Green   Port Vale 2 3   1~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Leyton   Mansfield 2 1   1~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Morecambe   Macclesfield 2 0   1~0  
    11.2.20 19:45   Newport   Walsall 0 0   1~0  
    11.2.20 19:45   Northampton   Swindon 0 1   2~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Salford City   Plymouth 2 3   1~1  
    11.2.20 19:45   Scnuthorpe   Cambridge 0 2   1~1  

     

    National League results were unspectacular;

    11.2.20 19:45   Solihull   Barnet 1 0   1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Eastleigh   Fylde 2 2   2~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Harrogate Town   Yeovil 3 0   1~1

    NL ongoing account now reads staked £70, winnings £65 for a £5 overall loss.

     

  2. Thirty five midweek games to process, at £10 per bet we have a £350 investment, they are ...

    Date Time   Home - Away        
    11.2.20 19:45   Barnsley   Birmingham       2~2
    11.2.20 19:45   Blackburn   Hull       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Brentford   Leeds       1~0
    11.2.20 19:45   Nottingham   Charlton       2~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Swansea   Q.P.R.       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Wigan   Middlesbrough       1~1
    12.2.20 19:45   Bristol City   Derby       2~1
    12.2.20 19:45   Huddersfield   Cardiff       1~1
    12.2.20 19:45   Luton   Sheffield Wednesday       2~1
    12.2.20 19:45   Millwall   Fulham       1~0
    12.2.20 20:00   Reading   West Bromwich       0~1
    12.2.20 20:00   Stoke   Preston       1~1
                       
    11.2.20 19:45   AFC Wimbledon   Ipswich       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Blackpool   Gillingham       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Burton   Oxford       1~0
    11.2.20 19:45   Coventry   Portsmouth       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Doncaster   Bolton       2~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Lincoln   Milton Keynes       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Peterborough   Southend       2~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Shrewsbury   Accrington Stanley       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Sunderland   Rochdale       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Tranmere   Bristol Rovers       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Wycombe   Fleetwood Town       3~1
                       
    11.2.20 19:45   Bradford   Stevenage       1~0
    11.2.20 19:45   Carlisle   Cheltenham       0~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Colchester   Grimsby       2~0
    11.2.20 19:45   Crewe   Crawley Town       2~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Exeter   Oldham       1~0
    11.2.20 19:45   Forest Green   Port Vale       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Leyton   Mansfield       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Morecambe   Macclesfield       1~0
    11.2.20 19:45   Newport   Walsall       1~0
    11.2.20 19:45   Northampton   Swindon       2~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Salford City   Plymouth       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Scnuthorpe   Cambridge       1~1

     

    And for information only three National League games NOT included in this project.

    11.2.20 19:45   Solihull   Barnet       1~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Eastleigh   Fylde       2~1
    11.2.20 19:45   Harrogate Town   Yeovil       1~1
  3. The first tranche of fixtures brings with it a happy & profitable return.

    The £380 staked yields a healthy return of £495. The winning bets with Bet365 odds are indicated below in the full listing.

                result     pred CS odds
    8.2.20 12:30   Everton   Crystal Palace 3 1   0~1  
    8.2.20 17:30   Brighton   Watford 1 1   1~0  
    9.2.20 14:00   Sheffield United   Bournemouth 2 1   1~0  
    9.2.20 16:30   Manchester City   West Ham postp     3~0  
                         
    7.2.20 19:45   Bristol City   Birmingham 1 3   1~1  
    8.2.20 12:30   Wigan   Preston 1 2   0~0  
    8.2.20 13:30   Barnsley   Sheffield Wednesday 1 1   1~2  
    8.2.20 15:00   Blackburn   Fulham 0 1   1~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Brentford   Middlesbrough 3 2   1~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Huddersfield   Q.P.R. 2 0   1~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Luton   Cardiff 0 1   2~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Reading   Hull 1 1   1~1 7.0
    8.2.20 15:00   Stoke   Charlton 3 1   1~2  
    8.2.20 15:00   Swansea   Derby 2 3   2~0  
    8.2.20 17:30   Nottingham   Leeds 2 0   1~1  
    9.2.20 13:30   Millwall   West Bromwich 0 2   1~1  
                         
    7.2.20 19:45   Lincoln   Rotherham 0 1   2~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   AFC Wimbledon   Fleetwood Town 1 2   2~2  
    8.2.20 15:00   Blackpool   Southend 2 1   2~2  
    8.2.20 15:00   Burton   Gillingham 0 0   0~0 8.5
    8.2.20 15:00   Coventry   Bolton 2 1   3~0  
    8.2.20 15:00   Doncaster   Rochdale 1 1   2~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Peterborough   Oxford 4 0   1~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Shrewsbury   Milton Keynes 1 1   1~1 6.5
    8.2.20 15:00   Sunderland   Ipswich 1 0   1~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Tranmere   Portsmouth 0 2   1~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Wycombe   Bristol Rovers 3 1   2~0  
                         
    8.2.20 15:00   Bradford   Grimsby 1 1   1~1 6.0
    8.2.20 15:00   Carlisle   Swindon 1 1   1~2  
    8.2.20 15:00   Colchester   Plymouth 3 0   0~2  
    8.2.20 15:00   Crewe   Oldham 2 1   2~1 8.5
    8.2.20 15:00   Exeter   Stevenage 2 1   1~0  
    8.2.20 15:00   Forest Green   Walsall 1 2   1~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Leyton   Macclesfield 1 1   1~1 7.0
    8.2.20 15:00   Morecambe   Mansfield 1 1   1~1 6.0
    8.2.20 15:00   Newport   Cambridge 0 1   1~0  
    8.2.20 15:00   Northampton   Port Vale 0 1   2~0  
    8.2.20 15:00   Salford City   Crawley Town 0 0   1~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Scnuthorpe   Cheltenham 1 0   1~1  

    Shrewd betting or just lucky? Who knows, the next bunch of fixtures may well reverse the early trend.

    National League, ignored as far as this betting regime goes had only four fixtures this weekend and bucking the evidence I'd seen since January 1st, a single winning score showed a profit. £40 stake returned £65.

    8.2.20 13:00   Chesterfield   Wrexham 3 2   0~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Bromley   Solihull 2 2   1~1  
    8.2.20 15:00   Dagenham & Redbridge Stockport 1 1   1~1 6.5
    8.2.20 15:00   Hartlepool   Aldershot 2 0   1~1  

    Sod's law might dictate that fortunes are completely reversed by the season end, National League with a profit, Prem - L2 a loss?
    Such is betting . . .

  4. From today until the end of the English season I'll be setting out Excel Solver selections for correct scores from the English leagues and putting a notional £10 bet on each one (that will run into one hellofa stake total by the end).
    Experience this season has shown that the National league is not a happy hunting ground for correct score picks so this exercise will concentrate on Premier, Championship, League One & League Two.
    I'll publish the National League picks anyway (I have it all set up so no hassle) but they'll be just for curiosity value and not part of the betting returns.

    Starting Profit/Loss £0.00

    Predictions for 7/8 February 2020

    8.2.20 12:30 Everton   Crystal Palace     0~1
    8.2.20 17:30 Brighton   Watford     1~0
    9.2.20 14:00 Sheffield United   Bournemouth     1~0
    9.2.20 16:30 Manchester City   West Ham     3~0
                   
    7.2.20 19:45 Bristol City   Birmingham     1~1
    8.2.20 12:30 Wigan   Preston     0~0
    8.2.20 13:30 Barnsley   Sheffield Wednesday     1~2
    8.2.20 15:00 Blackburn   Fulham     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Brentford   Middlesbrough     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Huddersfield   Q.P.R.     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Luton   Cardiff     2~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Reading   Hull     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Stoke   Charlton     1~2
    8.2.20 15:00 Swansea   Derby     2~0
    8.2.20 17:30 Nottingham   Leeds     1~1
    9.2.20 13:30 Millwall   West Bromwich     1~1
                   
    7.2.20 19:45 Lincoln   Rotherham     2~1
    8.2.20 15:00 AFC Wimbledon   Fleetwood Town     2~2
    8.2.20 15:00 Blackpool   Southend     2~2
    8.2.20 15:00 Burton   Gillingham     0~0
    8.2.20 15:00 Coventry   Bolton     3~0
    8.2.20 15:00 Doncaster   Rochdale     2~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Peterborough   Oxford     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Shrewsbury   Milton Keynes     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Sunderland   Ipswich     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Tranmere   Portsmouth     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Wycombe   Bristol Rovers     2~0
                   
    8.2.20 15:00 Bradford   Grimsby     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Carlisle   Swindon     1~2
    8.2.20 15:00 Colchester   Plymouth     0~2
    8.2.20 15:00 Crewe   Oldham     2~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Exeter   Stevenage     1~0
    8.2.20 15:00 Forest Green   Walsall     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Leyton   Macclesfield     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Morecambe   Mansfield     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Newport   Cambridge     1~0
    8.2.20 15:00 Northampton   Port Vale     2~0
    8.2.20 15:00 Salford City   Crawley Town     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Scnuthorpe   Cheltenham     1~1

    for info only

               

     

    8.2.20 13:00 Chesterfield   Wrexham     0~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Bromley   Solihull     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Dagenham & Redbridge Stockport     1~1
    8.2.20 15:00 Hartlepool   Aldershot     1~1
  5. Although this idea appears to have shown a profit since January 1st (if we exclude the National League) much of the testing had been done incognito with nothing proved up front, which is not an ethical way to proceed. In light of that I'll start a new thread, Correct Scores (second shift), where I'll publish all the predictions beforehand and take it through to the season end. So, I'm drawing a line under this particular thread . . . here's the line . . .

    ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  6. On 2/1/2020 at 1:03 PM, Data said:

    Just for curiosity value, the other English divisions ...

    £10 correct score result on each!?!   £550 total stake, absolute madness.

    £550 staked returned £545.
    7 winning correct scores from the 55 selections, with B365 closing odds between 9.00 & 6.00. ALMOST breaking even in such a high mark-up area is good going I reckon.

    The Conference (sorry! National League) was the difference between profit & loss, showing a complete blank return from the 12 games. I've said before that the Championship provided poor results using this technique, but that loss pales into insignificance when compared to the National League where the last 3 fixture days have yielded 35 straight failures.

    This season's returns league by league (since 1st January)

    Premier League,  50 bets, 8 winners, +0.28 returned per each 1 point bet
    Championship,  51,  4,  -0.46 for each 1 point bet
    League One,   56,  8,  +0.14 per bet
    League Two,  72,  13,  +0.25 per bet
    National League,   59,  3,  -0.65 per bet

    ALL:  288 bets, 22 points loss
    ALL (without National League):  229 bets, 16.5 points profit.

    I'm inclined to keep this going for a while yet, but I'll not bother with the lowest league!

     

  7. Just for curiosity value, the other English divisions ...

    £10 correct score result on each!?!   £550 total stake, absolute madness.

     

    1.2.20 12:30 Leicester   Chelsea     2~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Bournemouth   Aston Villa     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Crystal Palace   Sheffield United     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Liverpool   Southampton     2~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Newcastle   Norwich     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Watford   Everton     0~2
    1.2.20 15:00 West Ham   Brighton     2~1
    1.2.20 17:30 Manchester United   Wolverhampton Wanderers     2~1
    2.2.20 14:00 Burnley   Arsenal     2~1
    2.2.20 16:30 Tottenham   Manchester City     1~2
                   
    1.2.20 12:30 Hull   Brentford     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Birmingham   Nottingham     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Charlton   Barnsley     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Fulham   Huddersfield     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Leeds   Wigan     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Middlesbrough   Blackburn     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Preston   Swansea     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Q.P.R.   Bristol City     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Sheffield Wednesday   Millwall     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 West Bromwich   Luton     2~1
                   
    1.2.20 15:00 Accrington Stanley   AFC Wimbledon     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Bolton   Tranmere     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Bristol Rovers   Coventry     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Fleetwood Town   Doncaster     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Ipswich   Peterborough     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Milton Keynes   Wycombe     0~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Oxford   Blackpool     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Portsmouth   Sunderland     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Rochdale   Shrewsbury     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Rotherham   Burton     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Southend   Lincoln     0~3
                   
    1.2.20 15:00 Cambridge   Colchester     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Cheltenham   Morecambe     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Crawley Town   Scnuthorpe     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Grimsby   Forest Green     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Macclesfield   Northampton     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Mansfield   Carlisle     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Oldham   Bradford     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Plymouth   Newport     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Port Vale   Salford City     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Stevenage   Leyton     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Swindon   Exeter     2~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Walsall   Crewe     1~2
                   
    1.2.20 15:00 Fylde   Boreham Wood     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Aldershot   Harrogate Town     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Barnet   Hartlepool     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Barrow   Torquay     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Eastleigh   Woking     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Ebbsfleet United   Sutton UTD     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Halifax   Bromley     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Solihull   Maidenhead United     2~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Stockport   Dover Athletic     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Wrexham   Dagenham & Redbridge     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Yeovil   Chorley     1~0
    1.2.20 17:20 Notts County   Chesterfield     2~1
  8. . . . and my take on the weekend's Premier fixtures

    1.2.20 12:30 Leicester Chelsea   2~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Bournemouth Aston Villa   1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Crystal Palace Sheffield United 0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Liverpool Southampton   2~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Newcastle Norwich   1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Watford Everton   0~2
    1.2.20 15:00 West Ham Brighton   2~1
    1.2.20 17:30 Man United Wolves 2~1
    2.2.20 14:00 Burnley Arsenal   2~1
    2.2.20 16:30 Tottenham Manchester City 1~2
  9. 55 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

    Well I'm a very light user and I only pay 2%. I think they have a variety of "reward" options now and I'm on "Basic" where I just pay 2%. I think the higher rates offer more potential rewards but none that would be worth my while.

    harry_rag Is that 2% with Betfair?

  10. On 1/20/2020 at 10:28 PM, froment said:

    and it does not incorporate comission at betting exchange, you need to deduct it from your winnings; Betfair has 7% basic commission.

    Not having done any exchange betting for a good while I was astounded to read this and realise that Betfair basic commission is now 7%

    IMO that really stinks and smacks of blatant profiteering by the market leader, abusing & exploiting their dominant position. Whatever happened to economies of scale?

  11. Wow, swamping me with your metaphors, jugular dog tails & fish. I think I know where you're coming from, my mantra was always odds of evens or better, strike rate of 60% or better.

    Rather unfair of you I think though to refer to the 80% you ignore as "crap", I've known a few who knew how to deal with extended losing runs and made profits from value betting in that area. Each to his own.

    This is merely an academic exercise for me to see what develops, because every now and again an offshoot idea leads me to more lucrative areas/methods.

    Still, we both had a very profitable correct score return in midweek,  :ok  :nana

  12. On 1/21/2020 at 4:13 PM, Valiant Thor said:

    Hi Data

    Not a lover of correct score prediction mainly due to the abysmal overound placed on them, but I do like a bit of stats analysis .

     

    Exactly my sentiments, but maybe like me you enjoy the chase even more than the kill, find investigating & number crunching extremely therapeutic.
    All too easy in this challenge to have the solutions throwing up a disproportionate number of 1-1 draws, being the most frequent of scores as you've pointed out. Also predicting too few games where one or both team fails to score, where as your stats indicate the home team fails to score in over 20% of games, which increases to over 30% when looking at away team scores. I'm trying to address this by minimizing the error of goals scored by each team rather than aiming for 12X accuracy.

    I've used the same technique now with Championship and L1 & L2 games since Jan 1st, and overall the method just about breaks even which is very encouraging in such a high overround environment. L1 & L2 both show profits, it's the Championship which has spoiled the party where returns have been abysmal!

  13. Liverpool saved the weekend for the strategy with a 2-0 victory at 8.00, so not a total wipe out.
    Ongoing returns now stand at 33pts returned from 30pts staked, ROI 10%

    This week's projected scores are as follows;

    Bournemouth Brighton 1~1
    Aston Villa Watford 1~1
    Everton Newcastle 1~0
    Sheffield Utd Man City 0~1
    Crystal Palace Southamptn 1~1
    Chelsea Arsenal 2~1
    Leicester West Ham 1~0
    Tottenham Norwich 2~1
    Man United Burnley 2~1
    Wolves Liverpool 1~2
  14. Here's a bit of speculative fun, with looking at making a profit from one of the most difficult of football markets.

    Using Excel's "Solver" I processed the Premier league results to date grid by allocating an adjustable variable for each team's home/away attack/defence ratings to drill down to the best fit of correct scores to the games played to date. Once the best fit is arrived at then simply applying the finished formula to the next set of games.

    I figured (rightly or wrongly) that the strategy would need at least half of the season completed in order to have a healthy sample size to be anywhere near "reliable", for this reason I'm only concerned with games from January 1st onwards. The two game days so far this season have given 3 correct from the 20 games played, bet365 odds for these were 8.00 (twice) and 9.00 from indicating two 1~1 results and a 2~1.

    Thus far then 25pts return from 20pts staked. Here's this weekend's Excel predictions, can it keep up the profitable momentum?

    Watford Tottenham 2~2
    Arsenal Sheff United 0~1
    Brighton Aston Villa 2~2
    Man City Crystal Palace 1~1
    Norwich Bournemouth 2~1
    Southampt Wolves 1~2
    West Ham Everton 2~1
    Newcastle Chelsea 1~2
    Burnley Leicester 0~2
    Liverpool Man United 2~0
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