Data
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Posts posted by Data
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England v Ireland quoted at 23 for the draw . . . value??!? I think that's tempting. I'm sure it will be low scoring whatever.
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From tomorrow's fixture list I'm going with a couple of mini performances. . .
Oldham v Portsmouth, BUY home spread of 18-21
Plymouth v Bristol Rovers, BUY home spread of 20-23Keep on diggin' !!
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A 10 point loss, so my bottomless pit gets a little deeper and the sides ever more slippery. Still I'm up for a challenge and this weekend will signal the start of my great recovery.
Perhaps?!?
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9 hours ago, Tiffy said:
Any value in buying the Bradford Mini Performance tonight against Wigan?
Wigan have a big game in the cup against Swansea at the weekend, and I'd be surprised if they didn't have 1 eye on this going into tonight's game.
SX go 12-15 on the Bradford MP. If the game finishes 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, then we could be in profit, especially with a few corners thrown in.
Don't confuse the "Performance" and "Mini Performance" markets. Mini Performance only looks at win/draw/lose, goals scored and clean sheet, with deductions for red cards.
Whereas Performance markets also include corners and yellow card elements, and crucially has different points values for the elementsA 0-0 result mini performance, each team only get 10 pts (5pts draw + 5pts clean sheet)
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Simply to say "Well, that didn't go to plan" would be somewhat of an understatement. Far worse than random in fact, a blind man on a galloping horse at midnight with no moon . . . .
If you can keep your head when all around are losing theirs, you've obviously not fully grasped the situation. A loss of 129 points from the weekend drags this project down to a minus 168.80 to carry forward. Teresa May says "I'm not a quitter", which is hardly an endorsement of such an outlook on life, but hey ho, I've got a very deep hole to drag myself out of with not many weeks of the season to redress the situation.
So, a fresh assessment of my selection methods is obviously needed here. With that in mind, tonight I'm going for what my gut tells me looks a risky punt, but my new method of appraisals suggests it looks to be value.
Sheff Utd v Burton, buy Burton the 7-10 MP
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For this weekend the matches that I have rated outside of the spread quotes are . . .
MINI PERFORMANCES Home Away Bournemouth v Tottenham 10 13 31 34 SellA Stoke v Man City 6 9 39 42 SellA Hull v Norwich 18 21 16 19 BuyA Wigan v Scnuthorpe 28 31 9 12 BuyA Forest Green v Notts County 16 19 20 23 BuyH SellA Dag and Red v Tranmere 15 18 21 24 SellA WINDEX Home Away Ipswich v Sheff Utd 10 11.5 12 13.5 BUYH Forest Green v Notts County 9.5 11 12.4 13.9 BUYH Yeovil v Newport 11 12.5 10.9 12.4 BUYH Dag and Red v Tranmere 9 10.5 13.1 14.6 BUYH Mini performances are 1pt bets, Windex at 2 pts.
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3 hours ago, Tiffy said:
SHEFF WEDS V BOLTON
SX have the mini performance on Bolton at 12-15. They've not lost in 4, and Wednesday seem to be in aright mess at the moment. Do either of you think that there is any value in them to come away with something here?
I am tempted to back either this or a fixed odds U2.5 goals for the match.
On my figures I have their respective mini-perfs at 24.88 & 14.99. Inside, but at the upper end of both team's quotes.
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Rochdale v Fleetwood was NOT a system bet, only Premiership & Championship games qualify.
Sunday's game Brighton v Arsenal though was a bet, a winning one too, Bet365 odds of 4.2!
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Yes, will carry on - the bookies satchels are full of money from those who quit when they're losing.
However, as you'll understand, the roller coaster journey of spread betting can make those used to traditional odds feel a little breathless at times. -
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After the weekend's weather-hit fixture list I'm back on track - and adding some variety into the mix.
Mini Performances: (1point bets)
Fulham v Sheff Utd: Sell the away side's 13-16
Walsall v Rochdale: Buy home spread of 16-19 (SX)
Mansfield v Lincoln: Buy home spread of 19-22WINDEX: (2pt bets)
(each team 25pts a win, 10pts a draw, else 0pts)Birmingham v Middbro: Buy Home windex of 7.5-9 (SPIN)
Fulham v Sheff Utd: Buy Home windex of 14.5-16 (SPIN)
Walsall v Rochdale: Buy Home windex of 10.3-11.8 (SX) -
-9 was the outcome this evening leaving the winning pot now at +13 from 9 bets. See if I can steer away from the red this coming weekend.
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Just one pick from the midweek league games . . .
Reading (v Sheffield Utd). BUY Reading's 16-19
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-35 from that little lot doesn't exactly fill me with optimism. I'll continue to monitor though
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Well, back down to earth with a -19 point loss from my weekend picks. Landing a -15 for a red card did most of the damage I suppose, but taking the occasional dismissal is an inbuilt hazard that is inevitable with mini performances.
Now standing at +22 from eight bets, onward and upward.
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These are totally speculative mini performance buys in European football. I'm simply applying the same selection principles as I do with English leagues. But they were developed using English results data, and Euro leagues tend to have greater disparity between the top & bottom clubs.
So, currently this is purely to allow me to see if the ideas work well in the European sphere.Home Away Leganes v Las Palmas 23 26 10 13 BuyA Sevilla v Atletico Madrid 14 17 19 22 BuyH Bordeaux v Nice 21 24 12 15 BuyA PSG v Marseille 40 43 8 11 BuyA Inter v Benevento 38 41 5 8 BuyA Anderlecht v Mouscron 34 37 7 10 BuyA Chaves v Estoril Praia 23 26 12 15 BuyA Portimonense v Porto 8 11 32 35 BuyH -
Another to add to my weekend list
Fulham (v Wolves) 17-20 BUY
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They're marking 'em up for the weekend, so going in early. There may be more to follow . . .
Burton (v Milwall) a BUY @ 13-16
Sunderland (v Boro) a BUY @ 13-16
(Wigan v) Rochdale a BUY @ 7-10 (SX)
(Sutton v ) Guiseley a BUY @ 7-10
Woking (v Boreham Wood) a BUY @ 14-17 (SPIN) -
A nice +14 from the game, not sure how you'd quantify +41 from 2 bets in terms of ROI though.
Seems the more I research the luckier I get, only two bets I know but I'm quite optimistic about this. Not had a lucrative footy strategy for a few years, since I did rather well with total goal minutes spreads (unfortunately it didn't roll over well into the following season) However, I must temper my enthusiasm having had more football false dawns than I can count.
What I really enjoy about spread betting is getting away from the stark binary yes/no, win/lose of traditional betting.
Take the match last night . . .
Kickoff: 0-0 I'm standing at -1 point
14' Wolves 1-0, my position now -11
25' Wolves 2-0, my position unchanged
27' Score now 2-1, I'm -1 again
90' 2-2, Norwich score in injury time, I finish +14 -
Tonight I've a fancy for Norwich's chances on their visit to Wolves. So it's a BUY of the 8-11 about Norwich mini perf quoted by both big firms. The 27 points gain from my first win looks big enough to cover any but the most disastrous outcome for Norwich, but hey, I'm expecting to collect!
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IMO the quotes appear to factor in the red card deduction more than necessary, making this (again in my opinion) one of the more favourable markets for buyers. But I know unlike me, you're an enthusiastic buyer anyway.
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A search of this board didn't throw up anyone taking a regular punt on mini performances, so I'll give it a go.
Limited league games in England on an FA Cup weekend, but I've found one quote I think is worth a shot.Crawley have a home mini of 15 - 18 in their match at home to Lincoln City. The home side have picked up in recent games and their table position belies their potential, so a buy of the 18 (currently with both SX & SPIN) looks a decent bet.
** for the uninitiated a team's mini performance is calculated by win=15pts., draw=5pts., clean sheet=5pts, +10pts for each goal scored. However, one sting in the tail is 15pts are deducted for each and every red card conceded.
, but I'd say humility and plain morals are what's needed more in the world.
Over Complicated?
in Footy Chat & Banter
Posted
Missed another bet last weekend, but not a problem because it didn't do the business: Ipswich v Sheff Utd ended as a 0-0 draw.
Since starting this thread we've had just 3 bets . . .
Lost
won at 4.2
Lost
plus 1.2 from 3 bets, ROI% of 40%
Nothing this weekend, but I'll try and keep on top of things.