Data
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Posts posted by Data
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. . . however, because of the -539.55 deficit from my mini performances I brought over to here, I still need to catch up another 239.55 on the final Premiership games to make me feel better.
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End of season madness with hundreds of points at risk, continues. Div 1 & 2 total goals bets for the weekend are;
AFC Wimbledon v Bury 2.55 - 2.75 SELL Doncaster v Wigan 2.5 - 2.7 SELL Fleetwood v Walsall 2.45 - 2.65 SELL Gillingham v Plymouth 2.5 - 2.7 SELL Cambridge Utd v Port Vale 2.5 - 2.7 SELL Exeter v Colchester 2.55 - 2.75 SELL Forest Green v Grimsby 2.6 - 2.8 SELL Coventry v Morecambe 2.1 - 2.3 BUY -
Almost my final roll of the dice . . . the first batch of weekend, all total goal sells, same stakes as previous posts.
04/05/2018 20:00 Brighton v Man Utd 2.55 - 2.75 SELL 05/05/2018 15:00 Bournemouth v Swansea 2.6 - 2.8 SELL 05/05/2018 15:00 Leicester v West Ham 2.6 - 2.8 SELL 06/05/2018 12:30 Bolton v Nottingham Forest 2.6 - 2.8 SELL 06/05/2018 12:30 Brentford v Hull 3.35 - 3.55 SELL 06/05/2018 12:30 Cardiff v Reading 2.9 - 3.1 SELL 06/05/2018 12:30 Millwall v Aston Villa 2.6 - 2.8 SELL 06/05/2018 12:30 Sheff Wed v Norwich 2.9 - 3.1 SELL 06/05/2018 13:30 Man City v Huddersfield 3.7 - 3.9 SELL -
Oh, your message reminds me, there was a system bet last weekend. Burton v Bolton did the business for us at 2.50.
Now 1.7 profit from 5 bets, a 34% yield. Slow maybe, but productive.
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-43 points there, so a wise move of mine to step away from these bets.
But, with 16 bets, it means that reversing every one of them would have cost 16 times the spread width (3) = 48.
So a loss of -5 by opposing everything. Better, but still a loss.Mini performances? I'll pass. Can anyone else crack this market?
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Well done @harry_rag showing that sticking with your principles through all adversities comes good in the end. Only wish I had displayed a similar discipline!
On 26/04/2018 at 10:03 PM, harry_rag said:I actually considered closing out the bet at 68 at half time and spent the first part of the second half thinking I'd regret not doing so. Needless to say, I'm glad I followed my "rule" of "never close out a bet".
My rule also is never to close a spread early. Crazily, even on the odd occasion where I've placed a trade incorrectly / or on the wrong team (somehow easier to do with the diversity of markets available) I'll let the bet run.
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. . . and now a few more have been priced up four additional minis;
Newcastle v West Brom 23 - 26 12 - 15 SellA West Ham v Manchester C 7 - 10 37 - 40 SellA Manchester Utd v Arsenal 33 - 36 9 - 12 BuyA Woking v Dover 20 - 23 20 - 23 SellA -
Just for reference, had I continued with the mini-performances here's the games I'd have been going with. SX quotes from yesterday. Now I've abandoned this strategy it might be interesting to see if they profit, or if has been the case, will reversing every bet show a better return?
Southampton v Bournemouth 27 - 30 12 - 15 BuyA Swansea v Chelsea 8 - 11 29 - 32 BuyH Aston Villa v Derby 23 - 26 13 - 16 BuyH Barnsley v Brentford 16 - 19 25 - 28 SellA Nottingham v Bristol City 20 - 23 19 - 22 SellA Bristol Rovers v Gillingham 21 - 24 15 - 18 SellA Oldham v Doncaster 23 - 26 13 - 16 BuyA Accrington Stanley v Lincoln 20 - 23 16 - 19 BuyH Chesterfield v Wycombe 12 - 15 27 - 30 SellA Gateshead v Leyton 19 - 22 18 - 21 BuyA Torquay v Ebbsfleet United 14 - 17 23 - 26 SellA Tranmere v Hartlepool 27 - 30 13 - 16 SellA -
4 hours ago, harry_rag said:
Lots of luck. If anyone can do it, I’m sure you can!
Your encouragement indicates you have more confidence in my ability than I have, but gives me an extra incentive.
A couple more 100 point total goal spread bets for the weekend . . .
Maidstone v Halifax SELL 2.55-2.75(SX)
Sutton v Aldershot SELL 2.5-2.7
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Oh, just read that NO editing is allowed in this section and I forgot to mention my stakes for these bets.
100 points per bet (well, I do have a rather large hole to fill from my previous endeavours)
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After getting to the depths of -539.55 I'm waiving the white flag with mini performances, and, for the time being at least giving up this task in favour of simpler football spreads. However, by deviating from the title of this thread it seems as good a time as any to shift my progress to the more appropriate Glory Hunters.
I'll be taking my deficit with me and try to repair the damage done before the season ends.
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Over on another thread I lost shed loads attempting to profit from spread betting mini-performances. It got to be a bit of an obsession with bet after bet going against me. I'm abandoning mini-performances as a bad job and will attempt to pay off my notional debt by tackling much simpler and more straightforward football spread bets, namely superiorities and total goal markets. It also seems that Glory Hunters is a far more appropriate thread heading for my latest paper venture. Several hundred points to recoup before the season ends, so here goes nothin'.
Total Goal spreads
Burnley v Brighton BUY 2.1-2.3
Huddersfield v Everton BUY 2.05-2.25
Sheff Utd v Preston SELL 2.6-2.8(SPIN)
Blackpool v Shrewsbury BUY 2.15-2.35
Bristol R v Gillingham SELL 2.45-2.65
Bury v Portsmouth SELL 2.45-2.65
Charlton v Blackburn SELL 2.45-2.65
Grimsby v Notts C SELL 2.45-2.65
Port Vale v Carlisle SELL 2.45-2.65Superiority spreads
Swansea v Chelsea Sell Away 1.0-1.2
Aston V v Derby Buy Home 0.4-0.6(SX)
Accrington v Lincoln Buy Home 0.05-0.25
Chesterfield v Wycombe Sell Away 0.75-0.95
All quotes available at Spreadex and Sporting Index unless specified.Into battle I go.
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It's only valid when real money is staked and the more staked, the greater the positive influence on our forum posted spread bets. Should be worth a shot, you first though
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Abandon hope all ye who enter here . . .
Another dreadful weekend now standing at -522.80 from 98 bets. Sh1t or bust until the season end, all guns blazin'
1 point Mini Performance spreads;
Doncaster v Blackburn SELL AWAY 26-29
Morecambe v Cambridge BUY AWAY 15-18
Torquay v Guisley SELL AWAY 14-1725 point Total Goal spreads;
Bradford v MK Dons SELL 2.55-2.75
Doncaster v Blackburn SELL 2.5-2.7
Coventry v Lincoln BUY 2.1-2.3
Gateshead v Ebbsfleet SELL 2.5-2.7
Tranmere v Solihull SELL 2.6-2.8Can this actually get worse? (answers not required, thanks)
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. . . and even more, from our domestic programme;
Birmingham v Sheff Utd SELL AWAY 19-22
Ipswich v A Villa SELL AWAY 26-29
Sheff Wed v Reading SELL AWAY 15-18
Fleetwood v Wigan SELL AWAY 28-31 (SPIN)
Eastleigh v Macclesfield SELL AWAY 25-28
Chester v Maidstone SELL AWAY 28-31
Leyton v Wrexham SELL AWAY 16-19
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And from Sunday's fixtures I'm going . . . SX unless stated.
BRAZA SUN 22/4 Ceara v Sao Paulo SELL HOME 15-18
PREMI SUN 22/4 Stoke v Burnley SELL HOME 20-23
BUND2 SUN 22/4 Erzgebirge v Duisburg SELL AWAY 15-18
CHINA SUN 22/4 Dalian Yifang v Tianjin Quan SELL HOME 16-19
CHINA SUN 22/4 Jiangsu Suning v Sh Shenhua SELL HOME 25-28 (SPIN)
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For today;
ITALY SAT 21/4 Sassuolo v Fiorentina SELL HOME 16-19
FINLA SAT 21/4 Inter Turku v TPS Turku SELL AWAY 13-16
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On 15/04/2018 at 11:57 AM, harry_rag said:
Another nilling. Surely someone is making hay by fading these selections by now? The thread's a goldmine in that respect!
1559 points risked and 1194 returned, -365 points with an ROI of -23.41%.
19 winners from 66 bets.
We all know what is certain happen if anyone did oppose all your spreads (or mine!) with cash . . .
So, the sooner they start the better.
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A welcome +14 yesterday, two winning days on the bounce (although only +15 in total). Just enough however to get me to below the -400 mark, now -399.80 from 84.
Being in deficit with this 'playing for points' exercise is one thing, but my real money horseracing spreads dealt me a severe blow with yesterday's changing going, several hundreds down on the day!
![:\](/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
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Another for today,
SUN 14:00 Antalya v Konyaspor (TURK) SELL AWAY 17 - 20
Footy Spreads (an attempted recovery)
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Tough decision for a seller of total goals. On the one hand end of season games tend to be full of goals, frequently averaging over 3 goals per game. However, this feature is catered for with the spread firm's higher quotes.
It may be better to leave these final few Premier games alone, but that would set in stone my big losses carried over from my mini-performances experiment.
So, I'm grasping the nettle, because not ALL the games are full of goals. And, after all, betting is about pitching your opinion against that of the bookie, so I'm going for it.
Fortune favours the brave?
Wednesday Premiership games, all 100pt sell total goals bets; games at ...
Chelsea at 3.1
Leicester at 3.1
Man City at 3.5
Spurs at 3.45