Posts posted by Data
Have I killed a robin, or is this is some form of reverse Midas, whatever I touch, the exact opposite turns to gold. There's a fortune to be made merely betting the other team where I'm expressing a preference.
Real Zaragoza (WWWWW) at home to Sevilla B (LLLLL) and the away side takes the game 0-1 at a whopping 9/1, Real only managing a single shot on target!
Now -238.80 from 32. Has anyone ever been soooo wrong before I wonder?
The car crash continues. This is getting personal now that the deficit has crashed through the -200 barrier. Now standing a loss of 202.80 from 31 bets.
Having trawled through these records I now have from the past few weeks I have reconfigured my strategy (once again!). Determined to make this work I'm going for a . . .
home buy of Real Zaragoza's mini-perf in La Liga 2 at 33-36 (SX)
Thanks - I know I need it. Big time!
Missed another bet last weekend, but not a problem because it didn't do the business: Ipswich v Sheff Utd ended as a 0-0 draw.
Since starting this thread we've had just 3 bets . . .
won at 4.2
plus 1.2 from 3 bets, ROI% of 40%
Nothing this weekend, but I'll try and keep on top of things.
England v Ireland quoted at 23 for the draw . . . value??!? I think that's tempting. I'm sure it will be low scoring whatever.
From tomorrow's fixture list I'm going with a couple of mini performances. . .
Oldham v Portsmouth, BUY home spread of 18-21
Plymouth v Bristol Rovers, BUY home spread of 20-23
Keep on diggin' !!
A 10 point loss, so my bottomless pit gets a little deeper and the sides ever more slippery. Still I'm up for a challenge and this weekend will signal the start of my great recovery.
9 hours ago, Tiffy said:
Any value in buying the Bradford Mini Performance tonight against Wigan?
Wigan have a big game in the cup against Swansea at the weekend, and I'd be surprised if they didn't have 1 eye on this going into tonight's game.
SX go 12-15 on the Bradford MP. If the game finishes 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, then we could be in profit, especially with a few corners thrown in.
Don't confuse the "Performance" and "Mini Performance" markets. Mini Performance only looks at win/draw/lose, goals scored and clean sheet, with deductions for red cards.
Whereas Performance markets also include corners and yellow card elements, and crucially has different points values for the elements
A 0-0 result mini performance, each team only get 10 pts (5pts draw + 5pts clean sheet)
Simply to say "Well, that didn't go to plan" would be somewhat of an understatement. Far worse than random in fact, a blind man on a galloping horse at midnight with no moon . . . .
If you can keep your head when all around are losing theirs, you've obviously not fully grasped the situation. A loss of 129 points from the weekend drags this project down to a minus 168.80 to carry forward. Teresa May says "I'm not a quitter", which is hardly an endorsement of such an outlook on life, but hey ho, I've got a very deep hole to drag myself out of with not many weeks of the season to redress the situation.
So, a fresh assessment of my selection methods is obviously needed here. With that in mind, tonight I'm going for what my gut tells me looks a risky punt, but my new method of appraisals suggests it looks to be value.
Sheff Utd v Burton, buy Burton the 7-10 MP
For this weekend the matches that I have rated outside of the spread quotes are . . .
MINI PERFORMANCES Home Away Bournemouth v Tottenham 10 13 31 34 SellA Stoke v Man City 6 9 39 42 SellA Hull v Norwich 18 21 16 19 BuyA Wigan v Scnuthorpe 28 31 9 12 BuyA Forest Green v Notts County 16 19 20 23 BuyH SellA Dag and Red v Tranmere 15 18 21 24 SellA WINDEX Home Away Ipswich v Sheff Utd 10 11.5 12 13.5 BUYH Forest Green v Notts County 9.5 11 12.4 13.9 BUYH Yeovil v Newport 11 12.5 10.9 12.4 BUYH Dag and Red v Tranmere 9 10.5 13.1 14.6 BUYH
Mini performances are 1pt bets, Windex at 2 pts.
3 hours ago, Tiffy said:
SHEFF WEDS V BOLTON
SX have the mini performance on Bolton at 12-15. They've not lost in 4, and Wednesday seem to be in aright mess at the moment. Do either of you think that there is any value in them to come away with something here?
I am tempted to back either this or a fixed odds U2.5 goals for the match.
On my figures I have their respective mini-perfs at 24.88 & 14.99. Inside, but at the upper end of both team's quotes.
Rochdale v Fleetwood was NOT a system bet, only Premiership & Championship games qualify.
Sunday's game Brighton v Arsenal though was a bet, a winning one too, Bet365 odds of 4.2!
Yes, will carry on - the bookies satchels are full of money from those who quit when they're losing.
However, as you'll understand, the roller coaster journey of spread betting can make those used to traditional odds feel a little breathless at times.
After the weekend's weather-hit fixture list I'm back on track - and adding some variety into the mix.
Mini Performances: (1point bets)
Fulham v Sheff Utd: Sell the away side's 13-16
Walsall v Rochdale: Buy home spread of 16-19 (SX)
Mansfield v Lincoln: Buy home spread of 19-22
WINDEX: (2pt bets)
(each team 25pts a win, 10pts a draw, else 0pts)
Birmingham v Middbro: Buy Home windex of 7.5-9 (SPIN)
Fulham v Sheff Utd: Buy Home windex of 14.5-16 (SPIN)
Walsall v Rochdale: Buy Home windex of 10.3-11.8 (SX)
-9 was the outcome this evening leaving the winning pot now at +13 from 9 bets. See if I can steer away from the red this coming weekend.
Just one pick from the midweek league games . . .
Reading (v Sheffield Utd). BUY Reading's 16-19
-35 from that little lot doesn't exactly fill me with optimism. I'll continue to monitor though
Well, back down to earth with a -19 point loss from my weekend picks. Landing a -15 for a red card did most of the damage I suppose, but taking the occasional dismissal is an inbuilt hazard that is inevitable with mini performances.
Now standing at +22 from eight bets, onward and upward.
These are totally speculative mini performance buys in European football. I'm simply applying the same selection principles as I do with English leagues. But they were developed using English results data, and Euro leagues tend to have greater disparity between the top & bottom clubs.
So, currently this is purely to allow me to see if the ideas work well in the European sphere.
Home Away Leganes v Las Palmas 23 26 10 13 BuyA Sevilla v Atletico Madrid 14 17 19 22 BuyH Bordeaux v Nice 21 24 12 15 BuyA PSG v Marseille 40 43 8 11 BuyA Inter v Benevento 38 41 5 8 BuyA Anderlecht v Mouscron 34 37 7 10 BuyA Chaves v Estoril Praia 23 26 12 15 BuyA Portimonense v Porto 8 11 32 35 BuyH
Another to add to my weekend list
Fulham (v Wolves) 17-20 BUY
They're marking 'em up for the weekend, so going in early. There may be more to follow . . .
Burton (v Milwall) a BUY @ 13-16
Sunderland (v Boro) a BUY @ 13-16
(Wigan v) Rochdale a BUY @ 7-10 (SX)
(Sutton v ) Guiseley a BUY @ 7-10
Woking (v Boreham Wood) a BUY @ 14-17 (SPIN)
Football Mini-Performance Spreads
in Betting Systems & Strategy
A sucker for punishment, I'm buying Perugia away mini (Serie B) tonight at 18-21 (SX)