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Posts posted by Data

  1. Pure speculation on my part, but thought I'd process a summer football programme to see me through my own football spread betting close season.

    I have no betting records for this, but based upon as many past results as I could muster (but not as many as I'd like) I'm chancing my arm on the following . . .

    All 10 point buy or sells for this weekend;

    Home Team Advantage    
    Beijing Guoan v Guangzhou R&F 1 - 1.2 (SPIN) SELL
    Guangzhou Evergrande v Hebei CFFC 0.55 - 0.75 BUY
    Total Goals Spread    
    Shanghai Shenhua v Chongqing Lifan 2.85 - 3.05 BUY
    Henan Jianye v Beijing Renhe 2.15 - 2.35 BUY
  2. Thanks @harry_rag

    Shifting markets to a much lower spread volatility in order retrieve my losses meant I'd never manage to recover the -539.55 using 1 point stakes, so near the end of the season too. I'm not there yet, but hopefully this will have been one of those occasions where 'speculate to accumulate' works out well.

    There, that's probably totally jinxed my weekend  final bets!

  3. With just 29.55pts to recover my final spread betting stakes are adjusted accordingly;

    Final Premiership games 2017-18 (Sunday 13 May), 25 point total goal sells

    Liverpool v Brighton 3.4 - 3.6 SELL
    Southampton v Man City 3.05 - 3.25 (SX) SELL
    Swansea v Stoke 2.7 - 2.9 SELL
    Tottenham v Leicester 3.35 - 3.55 SELL
  4. On 07/05/2018 at 7:39 PM, Data said:

    Fortune favours the brave?

    Wednesday Premiership games, all 100pt sell total goals bets; games at ...
    Chelsea        at 3.1
    Leicester    at 3.1
    Man City    at 3.5
    Spurs        at 3.45


    A good night for my recovery prospects, In game order;

    210 pts profit this evening, now just -29.55 losses left to recover. Almost there!  :cow

  5. Tough decision for a seller of total goals. On the one hand end of season games tend to be full of goals, frequently averaging over 3 goals per game. However, this feature is catered for with the spread firm's higher quotes.
    It may be better to leave these final few Premier games alone, but that would set in stone my big losses carried over from my mini-performances experiment.
    So, I'm grasping the nettle, because not ALL the games are full of goals. And, after all, betting is about pitching your opinion against that of the bookie, so I'm going for it.
    Fortune favours the brave?

    Wednesday Premiership games, all 100pt sell total goals bets; games at ...
    Chelsea        at 3.1
    Leicester    at 3.1
    Man City    at 3.5
    Spurs        at 3.45

  6. End of season madness with hundreds of points at risk, continues. Div 1 & 2 total goals bets for the weekend are;

    AFC Wimbledon v Bury 2.55 - 2.75 SELL
    Doncaster v Wigan 2.5 - 2.7 SELL
    Fleetwood v Walsall 2.45 - 2.65 SELL
    Gillingham v Plymouth 2.5 - 2.7 SELL
    Cambridge Utd v Port Vale 2.5 - 2.7 SELL
    Exeter v Colchester 2.55 - 2.75 SELL
    Forest Green v Grimsby 2.6 - 2.8 SELL
    Coventry v Morecambe 2.1 - 2.3 BUY
  7. Almost my final roll of the dice . . . the first batch of weekend, all total goal sells, same stakes as previous posts.

    04/05/2018 20:00 Brighton v Man Utd 2.55 - 2.75 SELL
    05/05/2018 15:00 Bournemouth v Swansea 2.6 - 2.8 SELL
    05/05/2018 15:00 Leicester v West Ham 2.6 - 2.8 SELL
    06/05/2018 12:30 Bolton v Nottingham Forest 2.6 - 2.8 SELL
    06/05/2018 12:30 Brentford v Hull 3.35 - 3.55 SELL
    06/05/2018 12:30 Cardiff v Reading 2.9 - 3.1 SELL
    06/05/2018 12:30 Millwall v Aston Villa 2.6 - 2.8 SELL
    06/05/2018 12:30 Sheff Wed v Norwich 2.9 - 3.1 SELL
    06/05/2018 13:30 Man City v Huddersfield 3.7 - 3.9 SELL
  8. -43 points there, so a wise move of mine to step away from these bets.

    But, with 16 bets, it means that reversing every one of them would have cost 16 times the spread width (3) = 48.
    So a loss of -5 by opposing everything. Better, but still a loss.

    Mini performances? I'll pass. Can anyone else crack this market?

  9. Well done @harry_rag showing that sticking with your principles through all adversities comes good in the end. Only wish I had displayed a similar discipline!  :notworthy

    On 26/04/2018 at 10:03 PM, harry_rag said:

    I actually considered closing out the bet at 68 at half time and spent the first part of the second half thinking I'd regret not doing so. Needless to say, I'm glad I followed my "rule" of "never close out a bet".

    My rule also is never to close a spread early. Crazily, even on the odd occasion where I've placed a trade incorrectly / or on the wrong team (somehow easier to do with the diversity of markets available) I'll let the bet run.

  10. Just for reference, had I continued with the mini-performances here's the games I'd have been going with. SX quotes from yesterday. Now I've abandoned this strategy it might be interesting to see if they profit, or if has been the case, will reversing every bet show a better return?

    Southampton v Bournemouth   27 - 30 12 - 15 BuyA
    Swansea v Chelsea   8 - 11 29 - 32 BuyH
    Aston Villa v Derby   23 - 26 13 - 16 BuyH
    Barnsley v Brentford   16 - 19 25 - 28 SellA
    Nottingham v Bristol City   20 - 23 19 - 22 SellA
    Bristol Rovers v Gillingham   21 - 24 15 - 18 SellA
    Oldham v Doncaster   23 - 26 13 - 16 BuyA
    Accrington Stanley v Lincoln   20 - 23 16 - 19 BuyH
    Chesterfield v Wycombe   12 - 15 27 - 30 SellA
    Gateshead v Leyton   19 - 22 18 - 21 BuyA
    Torquay v Ebbsfleet United   14 - 17 23 - 26 SellA
    Tranmere v Hartlepool   27 - 30 13 - 16 SellA
  11. 4 hours ago, harry_rag said:

    Lots of luck. If anyone can do it, I’m sure you can!

    Your encouragement indicates you have more confidence in my ability than I have, but gives me an extra incentive.

    A couple more 100 point total goal spread bets for the weekend . . .

    Maidstone v Halifax    SELL 2.55-2.75(SX)
    Sutton v Aldershot    SELL 2.5-2.7

  12. After getting to the depths of -539.55 I'm waiving the white flag with mini performances, and, for the time being at least giving up this task in favour of simpler football spreads. However, by deviating from the title of this thread it seems as good a time as any to shift my progress to the more appropriate Glory Hunters.

    I'll be taking my deficit with me and try to repair the damage done before the season ends.

  13. Over on another thread I lost shed loads attempting to profit from spread betting mini-performances. It got to be a bit of an obsession with bet after bet going against me. I'm abandoning mini-performances as a bad job and will attempt to pay off my notional debt by tackling much simpler and more straightforward football spread bets, namely superiorities and total goal markets. It also seems that Glory Hunters is a far more appropriate thread heading for my latest paper venture. Several hundred points to recoup before the season ends, so here goes nothin'.

    Total Goal spreads
    Burnley v Brighton    BUY  2.1-2.3
    Huddersfield v Everton    BUY  2.05-2.25
    Sheff Utd v Preston    SELL 2.6-2.8(SPIN)
    Blackpool v Shrewsbury    BUY  2.15-2.35
    Bristol R v Gillingham    SELL 2.45-2.65
    Bury v Portsmouth    SELL 2.45-2.65
    Charlton v Blackburn    SELL 2.45-2.65
    Grimsby v Notts C    SELL 2.45-2.65
    Port Vale v Carlisle    SELL 2.45-2.65

    Superiority spreads
    Swansea v Chelsea    Sell Away 1.0-1.2
    Aston V v Derby        Buy Home 0.4-0.6(SX)
    Accrington v Lincoln    Buy Home 0.05-0.25
    Chesterfield v Wycombe    Sell Away 0.75-0.95
    All quotes available at Spreadex and Sporting Index unless specified.

    Into battle I go.charge.jpg.0bdcee4f2dcae9592590dd71d61eeb4f.jpg

  14. Abandon hope all ye who enter here . . .

    Another dreadful weekend now standing at -522.80 from 98 bets. Sh1t or bust until the season end, all guns blazin'

    1 point Mini Performance spreads;
    Doncaster v Blackburn        SELL AWAY 26-29
    Morecambe v Cambridge        BUY AWAY  15-18
    Torquay v Guisley        SELL AWAY 14-17

    25 point Total Goal spreads;
    Bradford v MK Dons        SELL 2.55-2.75
    Doncaster v Blackburn        SELL 2.5-2.7
    Coventry v Lincoln        BUY  2.1-2.3
    Gateshead v Ebbsfleet        SELL 2.5-2.7
    Tranmere v Solihull        SELL 2.6-2.8

    Can this actually get worse? (answers not required, thanks)

  15. . . . and even more, from our domestic programme;

    Birmingham v Sheff Utd        SELL AWAY 19-22
    Ipswich v A Villa        SELL AWAY 26-29
    Sheff Wed v Reading        SELL AWAY 15-18
    Fleetwood v Wigan        SELL AWAY 28-31 (SPIN)
    Eastleigh v Macclesfield    SELL AWAY 25-28
    Chester v Maidstone        SELL AWAY 28-31
    Leyton v Wrexham        SELL AWAY 16-19

  16. And from Sunday's fixtures I'm going . . .  SX unless stated.

    BRAZA SUN 22/4  Ceara v Sao Paulo        SELL HOME  15-18
    PREMI SUN 22/4  Stoke v Burnley            SELL HOME  20-23
    BUND2 SUN 22/4  Erzgebirge v Duisburg          SELL AWAY  15-18
    CHINA SUN 22/4  Dalian Yifang v Tianjin Quan    SELL HOME  16-19
    CHINA SUN 22/4  Jiangsu Suning v Sh Shenhua    SELL HOME  25-28 (SPIN)

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