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Data

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    Correct scores (what? again?)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    On 2/1/2020 at 1:03 PM, Data said:

    Just for curiosity value, the other English divisions ...

    £10 correct score result on each!?!   £550 total stake, absolute madness.

    £550 staked returned £545.
    7 winning correct scores from the 55 selections, with B365 closing odds between 9.00 & 6.00. ALMOST breaking even in such a high mark-up area is good going I reckon.

    The Conference (sorry! National League) was the difference between profit & loss, showing a complete blank return from the 12 games. I've said before that the Championship provided poor results using this technique, but that loss pales into insignificance when compared to the National League where the last 3 fixture days have yielded 35 straight failures.

    This season's returns league by league (since 1st January)

    Premier League,  50 bets, 8 winners, +0.28 returned per each 1 point bet
    Championship,  51,  4,  -0.46 for each 1 point bet
    League One,   56,  8,  +0.14 per bet
    League Two,  72,  13,  +0.25 per bet
    National League,   59,  3,  -0.65 per bet

    ALL:  288 bets, 22 points loss
    ALL (without National League):  229 bets, 16.5 points profit.

    I'm inclined to keep this going for a while yet, but I'll not bother with the lowest league!

     

    Correct scores (what? again?)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Just for curiosity value, the other English divisions ...

    £10 correct score result on each!?!   £550 total stake, absolute madness.

     

    1.2.20 12:30 Leicester   Chelsea     2~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Bournemouth   Aston Villa     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Crystal Palace   Sheffield United     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Liverpool   Southampton     2~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Newcastle   Norwich     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Watford   Everton     0~2
    1.2.20 15:00 West Ham   Brighton     2~1
    1.2.20 17:30 Manchester United   Wolverhampton Wanderers     2~1
    2.2.20 14:00 Burnley   Arsenal     2~1
    2.2.20 16:30 Tottenham   Manchester City     1~2
                   
    1.2.20 12:30 Hull   Brentford     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Birmingham   Nottingham     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Charlton   Barnsley     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Fulham   Huddersfield     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Leeds   Wigan     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Middlesbrough   Blackburn     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Preston   Swansea     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Q.P.R.   Bristol City     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Sheffield Wednesday   Millwall     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 West Bromwich   Luton     2~1
                   
    1.2.20 15:00 Accrington Stanley   AFC Wimbledon     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Bolton   Tranmere     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Bristol Rovers   Coventry     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Fleetwood Town   Doncaster     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Ipswich   Peterborough     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Milton Keynes   Wycombe     0~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Oxford   Blackpool     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Portsmouth   Sunderland     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Rochdale   Shrewsbury     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Rotherham   Burton     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Southend   Lincoln     0~3
                   
    1.2.20 15:00 Cambridge   Colchester     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Cheltenham   Morecambe     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Crawley Town   Scnuthorpe     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Grimsby   Forest Green     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Macclesfield   Northampton     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Mansfield   Carlisle     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Oldham   Bradford     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Plymouth   Newport     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Port Vale   Salford City     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Stevenage   Leyton     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Swindon   Exeter     2~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Walsall   Crewe     1~2
                   
    1.2.20 15:00 Fylde   Boreham Wood     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Aldershot   Harrogate Town     1~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Barnet   Hartlepool     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Barrow   Torquay     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Eastleigh   Woking     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Ebbsfleet United   Sutton UTD     2~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Halifax   Bromley     1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Solihull   Maidenhead United     2~2
    1.2.20 15:00 Stockport   Dover Athletic     0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Wrexham   Dagenham & Redbridge     1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Yeovil   Chorley     1~0
    1.2.20 17:20 Notts County   Chesterfield     2~1

    Correct scores (what? again?)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    . . . and my take on the weekend's Premier fixtures

    1.2.20 12:30 Leicester Chelsea   2~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Bournemouth Aston Villa   1~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Crystal Palace Sheffield United 0~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Liverpool Southampton   2~1
    1.2.20 15:00 Newcastle Norwich   1~0
    1.2.20 15:00 Watford Everton   0~2
    1.2.20 15:00 West Ham Brighton   2~1
    1.2.20 17:30 Man United Wolves 2~1
    2.2.20 14:00 Burnley Arsenal   2~1
    2.2.20 16:30 Tottenham Manchester City 1~2

    Betting exchange question

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    55 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

    Well I'm a very light user and I only pay 2%. I think they have a variety of "reward" options now and I'm on "Basic" where I just pay 2%. I think the higher rates offer more potential rewards but none that would be worth my while.

    harry_rag Is that 2% with Betfair?

    Betting exchange question

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    On 1/20/2020 at 10:28 PM, froment said:

    and it does not incorporate comission at betting exchange, you need to deduct it from your winnings; Betfair has 7% basic commission.

    Not having done any exchange betting for a good while I was astounded to read this and realise that Betfair basic commission is now 7%

    IMO that really stinks and smacks of blatant profiteering by the market leader, abusing & exploiting their dominant position. Whatever happened to economies of scale?

    Correct scores (what? again?)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Wow, swamping me with your metaphors, jugular dog tails & fish. I think I know where you're coming from, my mantra was always odds of evens or better, strike rate of 60% or better.

    Rather unfair of you I think though to refer to the 80% you ignore as "crap", I've known a few who knew how to deal with extended losing runs and made profits from value betting in that area. Each to his own.

    This is merely an academic exercise for me to see what develops, because every now and again an offshoot idea leads me to more lucrative areas/methods.

    Still, we both had a very profitable correct score return in midweek,  :ok  :nana

    Correct scores (what? again?)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    On 1/21/2020 at 4:13 PM, Valiant Thor said:

    Hi Data

    Not a lover of correct score prediction mainly due to the abysmal overound placed on them, but I do like a bit of stats analysis .

     

    Exactly my sentiments, but maybe like me you enjoy the chase even more than the kill, find investigating & number crunching extremely therapeutic.
    All too easy in this challenge to have the solutions throwing up a disproportionate number of 1-1 draws, being the most frequent of scores as you've pointed out. Also predicting too few games where one or both team fails to score, where as your stats indicate the home team fails to score in over 20% of games, which increases to over 30% when looking at away team scores. I'm trying to address this by minimizing the error of goals scored by each team rather than aiming for 12X accuracy.

    I've used the same technique now with Championship and L1 & L2 games since Jan 1st, and overall the method just about breaks even which is very encouraging in such a high overround environment. L1 & L2 both show profits, it's the Championship which has spoiled the party where returns have been abysmal!

    Correct scores (what? again?)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Liverpool saved the weekend for the strategy with a 2-0 victory at 8.00, so not a total wipe out.
    Ongoing returns now stand at 33pts returned from 30pts staked, ROI 10%

    This week's projected scores are as follows;

    Bournemouth Brighton 1~1
    Aston Villa Watford 1~1
    Everton Newcastle 1~0
    Sheffield Utd Man City 0~1
    Crystal Palace Southamptn 1~1
    Chelsea Arsenal 2~1
    Leicester West Ham 1~0
    Tottenham Norwich 2~1
    Man United Burnley 2~1
    Wolves Liverpool 1~2

    Correct scores (what? again?)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Here's a bit of speculative fun, with looking at making a profit from one of the most difficult of football markets.

    Using Excel's "Solver" I processed the Premier league results to date grid by allocating an adjustable variable for each team's home/away attack/defence ratings to drill down to the best fit of correct scores to the games played to date. Once the best fit is arrived at then simply applying the finished formula to the next set of games.

    I figured (rightly or wrongly) that the strategy would need at least half of the season completed in order to have a healthy sample size to be anywhere near "reliable", for this reason I'm only concerned with games from January 1st onwards. The two game days so far this season have given 3 correct from the 20 games played, bet365 odds for these were 8.00 (twice) and 9.00 from indicating two 1~1 results and a 2~1.

    Thus far then 25pts return from 20pts staked. Here's this weekend's Excel predictions, can it keep up the profitable momentum?

    Watford Tottenham 2~2
    Arsenal Sheff United 0~1
    Brighton Aston Villa 2~2
    Man City Crystal Palace 1~1
    Norwich Bournemouth 2~1
    Southampt Wolves 1~2
    West Ham Everton 2~1
    Newcastle Chelsea 1~2
    Burnley Leicester 0~2
    Liverpool Man United 2~0
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