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Posts posted by Data

  1. Selling the spreads has always been my golden rule. Anytime I've been tempted with buying it's always come back to bite me in the end.

    Regarding your final question, I've always thought that some of the 'exotic' multi factored bets must only attract thrill seekers, and as such they will probably be looking at the (incorrectly) perceived profit potential of buying. Never actually been motivated enough to follow the theory through though and check the make-ups.

    Another area of interest might be any market where the possible up side dwarfs whatever might be gained from selling, e.g. where the spread contains a multiplication factor, first half points * second half points, multi corners, multi bookings, etc.

  2. 20 hours ago, liero1 said:

    interesting, following this!

    could you show the predicted probability of your bet selection if possible?


    There are in fact three individual probabilities (Home, Draw or Away) for each of the three models, so trying to combine these is not I suggest very useful. My trigger for a bet is where all three indicate >0.95 probability. The correct score element is merely the most common score of the particular HDA selection.


    19 hours ago, Zico10 said:

    Like the look of this. I love a correct score bet! Like you say they are difficult to predict but I do a correct score heinz each week in the hope I get lucky just once. 

    More fun and better prospects than buying a Lotto ticket for sure. My own correct score preference though is one accumulator on all selections with a win single on each ~ I reckon your chances of winning more and losing less are enhanced. Not maybe as good a return as your full cover if ALL selection win, but still a bonanza payout without risking as much on staking. Also works with no matter how many selections, saves struggling to find bets you may not have made by making up the number of bets required for your exotic bet.

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