Valiant Thor

Cant do related bets anymore, rules were changes mid way through last season.
Has to go down as a single on first named bet.

1.50 Wolv FIZZY FEET @ 9/2 BetVictor

*Guys/Gals
There may not be a table on Wednesday evening.
Travelling down to Leicester and not back until Thursday PM
Will catch up

A lot of races but not much substance
2.50 Ponte VENTURA OCEAN @ 6/4 B365

I can see where Henry TD is coming from in trying to verify the profitability of a system based on early prices. I think to find all the relevant data would be a big task.
Personally when I am testing a system I like to make a profit at SP in the knowledge that in reality I could improve that by 10% by using early prices or BSP.
To judge a system on profitability based on BOG may turn out to be a waste of time because if you do hit on a good system it will not be long before the bookies will not allow you to bet at BOG anyway.

Thats a great attitude mate, some of the younger member could learn from that

Valiant,
I'm the same, don't make that much on my own accounts because of bookies restrictions but enough for a few beers. I've set up accounts for my daughter now she's got her own house / address and she's raking in the money by using all the free bet offers and laying on the exchanges. I only give her my best bet of the day, wish I could have been so disciplined on my own accounts in the past !

In my tracks to follow thread its quite surprising how well i do at some courses and absolute rubbish at others. I cant see any rhyme or reason for it to be honest.
They are quite fair figures too as they include every race not just the 'easy' ones.
Warwick is particularly poor over sticks as is Nottingham on the flat?
Personally I cant stand Ayr, just cant seem to work out the draw/pace of the place.
Over jumps i dont do well at Hexham and avoid it totally now, so many horses cant act around that track. Never known a place to have so many 'good things' turned over.
*Valiant, well done on your stats, I hope you are retired in Barbados or somewhere

Interesting thanks for the stats Valiant Thor,  you've got an impressive strike rate. I see you're doing great at Brighton may just persevere with that course, going check out my results I see how they compare.

You got me thinking there @Johnrobertson
I only keep 3yrs of stats on my comp just for yearly graph comparison all other years are on a separate HD
Since I started betting seriously 10yr ago I've had 4438 bets up to yesterday with 1740 winners and a 39% sr,
Not surprised twig hopping tracks are near the bottom,but surprised to see them at the top as well albeit from a small sample size as I dont back that many twig hoppers.
Newbury doesn't actually fair as bad as I first thought (just proves the vileness of variance over a short 3yr time span)

Thanks for the informed answer
All my betting is pure data related
But I just cant see any correlation whatsoever with withdrawn horses and race outcomes, it is nothing that can be predicted pre race (unless the race is fixed),If your doing it post race then its totally irrelevant due to the confines of previous statement.
Even after a horse is withdrawn a total change in the market occurs, horses are backed that wouldn't normally be backed ,false favs & numerous other anomalies , best of luck but you seem to be looking for a black cat in a coal cellar IMO

2.25 Chest  THE TRADER @ 11/10 B365

The forecast is exactly the same as the sp or did you not notice that
so that would make the 8/1 for Veruc Delicia wrong as it did not run
So he is not right
As for R4 if its 10p in the pound just multiply the net by .9 then add your stake
How hard is that
 BH wonders why discussion is dying on this forum
I wonder why
Heres the R4 deductions
Odds Deduction 1/9 or shorter 90p (in £) 2/11 to 2/17 85p 1/4 to 1/5 80p 3/10 to 2/7 75p  2/5 to 1/3 70p 8/15 to 4/9 65p 8/13 to 4/7 60p 4/5 to 4/6 55p 20/21 to 5/6 50p Evens (1/1) to 6/5 45p 5/4 to 6/4 40p 13/8 to 7/4 35p 15/8 to 9/4 30p 5/2 to 3/1 25p 10/3 to 4/1 20p 9/2 to 11/2 15p 6/1 to 9/1 10p 10/1 to 14/1 5p  

Unfortunately the forecast in SL is dynamic so it reverts to the SP after the race.
I think @HenryTD requires the pre-race forecast

8.45 Epsom HYANNA @ 11/10 Coral

8.45 Epsom HYANNA @ 11/10 Coral

Sorry TabCor few more quid in the red

 

Yup, we removed them this morning, however there’s a number of companies lined up to take over, so probably not the end for SunBets...

5.30 Bev ISLAND SONG @ 13/8 Coral

It sometimes looks that way as results tend to come in clusters and over a small sample can look that way.
As the sample size increases you will find results tend to revert back around the mean.
19 year Fav win rate by month 156,898 races in total

Try using an ad blocker
I found mine used to be slow due to having to wait for all the adds for bookies to load on rh side
Just turned it off and refreshed still loading fine with adds
Maybe a old corrupt cookie still on your system, possibly clear and give it another try.
Try DuckDuckGo as a browser as it doesn't harvest your information or bombard you with targeted adverts/sites like google / firefox or edge which may also be a cause cause slow web transfers
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It sometimes looks that way as results tend to come in clusters and over a small sample can look that way.
As the sample size increases you will find results tend to revert back around the mean.
19 year Fav win rate by month 156,898 races in total

Im not an advocate of backing multiple horses in the same race as its hard enough to beat the bookmaker without betting against yourself in the process,but each to their own.
You need 2 races in 3 (66%) min correct to make a profit , anything under that you will lose money, no staking plan in the world can change that.
Your using variable staking per bet making you risk bearing so your variance per bet graphed out will look like a map of the alps.
For a start make your bets more risk averse.(the longer you stay in the game the more chance you have)
Have a fixed common denominator say 30pts per race for all races ( or whatever denomination you feel comfortable with) and dutch all the horses for that day together to give an equal payout whichever wins
ie 1 race 30pts dutched between 3 horses or 2 races = 60pts dutched between 6 horses etc etc
This wont make losing races into winners but should reduce the variance .
As mentioned before , if possible try and stick to non-handicap races, if non opt for the better class Handicap races over lower ones, as handicap races by nature are there to be exploited by trainers.
If you have multiple races in a day try to keep it to the the race you think is the best bet for the day, more races and higher volume betting only makes you lose faster if your not hitting your winning %age just the same as increasing stakes after a loser would
Apart from the above keep detailed record and you'll soon see where the problems lie.
ATB
VT
 

Mathletics by Wayne Winstone....About how to use stats to predict (rate/rank) sports ,mainly yank sports but can be adapted for football .
Stastistical Thinking in Sports by Jim Albert & Ruud Koning.....Statistical modelling in sports, football ,baseball,tennis & hockey , quite math heavy.
Optimization Modeling with Spreadsheets by Kenneth Baker....Linear/non linear programming in excel using solver, quite math heavy
Build Your Own Expert System by Chris Naylor.....First book that got me interested in (A.I.) sports modelling back in 1983 on a 16k Sinclair ZX Spectrum in BASIC . Principles still hold up today and IMO a very easy insight into computer modelling although you would have to adapt the BASIC code yourself to suit python which would be the language of choice now.
A bit geeky but those should keep you busy for a while.