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four-leaf

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  1. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from harry_rag in Rugby Union Bets 2021   
    Can you explain in some more simplier way so I can understand what you had your bet on? I'm swedish and would like to learn about Rugby so I can understand what to bet on when you post.
  2. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - October 11 - October 17   
    Arina Rodionova (+5) to beat Oksana Selekhmeteva at 1.86 with Pinnacle
    I don't really see a reason to have the handicap so big here. Rodionova isn't a great player by any stretch, but she can typically hold her own against these young players. Selekhmeteva just doesn't have the results yet to be such a big favorite here in my opinion.
  3. Confused
    four-leaf reacted to harry_rag in Rugby Union Bets 2021   
    Last 2 bets made up at 50 for a 2 point profit and 0 for 46 points. One that appeals tonight.
    Ulster v Lions: Sell Ulster hotshots for 1 point at 58 with SPIN (Will Addison, Craig Gilroy, Ethan McIlroy, Nathan Doak)
    Insert the usual waffle about why I like the bet; essentially I'm getting a value more like 47. Chance to sell something at >2 tries that seems to be worth just under that mark (hotshots awards 25 points per try scored by the named players).
  4. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CrazySuzy in BillyHills - Remembering One Year On   
    What a lovely post to see. Graham would be proud to know he is remembered. He loved Punters Lounge passionately, and would want everything to carry on and move forward. There is no better legacy than leaving behind work that is built on and taken forward by others for the future. Thank you all for your support and kindness, it is invaluable.
  5. Like
    four-leaf reacted to StevieDay1983 in BillyHills - Remembering One Year On   
    It seems crazy to think that a whole year has gone since our beloved admin BillyHills aka Graham Sarson tragically passed away. Graham is still remembered very fondly here. Even now we still hear positive things about him either through personal memories members have shared or members expressing the influence he had on their own lives or this forum itself.
    On a personal note, I know that Punters Lounge isn't the same without Graham but I think he'd be proud of the legacy he has left. 12 months may have passed but Graham still remains in our hearts and the influence he had on the place you see now is still very much clear. We thought it was only appropriate that we posted some words up one year on so that people can take time to remember Graham and so that his wife Suzy and his family know that we are all still thinking of them during this difficult time.
    BillyHills may no longer be with us but he is still very much in our memories and in our thoughts. ❤️
  6. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Torque in Tennis Tips - October 11 - October 17   
    That's true. You can only go to that particular well so many times though. At the moment, for whatever reason, he doesn't look right to me and with the way Basilashvili can play lights out every now and then, I wouldn't be surprised if Tsitsipas loses. I also wouldn't be surprised though if Basilashvili lost in a sea of unforced errors and so it's not a match I'll be getting involved in. If I were forced to bet on something, it would be a straight bet on Basilashvili rather than any handicaps as I think he'll either win or lose easily.
  7. Like
    four-leaf reacted to carina007 in Tennis Tips - October 11 - October 17   
    In that case I put my money on Basilashvili @4.50
  8. Like
    four-leaf reacted to Foo_Fighter in Tennis Tips - October 11 - October 17   
    Lloyd Harris to win a set at 1.8 with bet365
    Don't know why Ruud is considered such a heavy favorite against Harris tonight. Both players are at their best, Harris is the better server, Ruud is probably the better retriever. Kind of reminds me of David Ferrer in a way. At these odds, I'm going with the young South African to win at least a set.
    Good luck.
  9. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - October 11 - October 17   
    Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+5) to beat Victoria Azarenka at 1.81 with Pinnacle
    Fully agree with @darko08. 
  10. Like
    four-leaf reacted to darko08 in Tennis Tips - October 11 - October 17   
    Sasnovich vs Azarenka - Over 19.5 Games at 1.80 with Pinnacle
    Sasnovich (+ 5.5 Games) to beat Azarenka at 1.68 with Pinnacle
    Sasnovich to beat Azarenka at 4.01 with Pinnacle
    I said on my last pick that Halep was being overrated. She was not playing good and Sasnovich's last results were suggesting that she would have chances to upset Halep.  Well..., I only have seen a short part of that match, but Sasnovich has beat her in 2 sets (7-5, 6-4). She has won all her 3 matches here in straight sets (MC Osorio, Raducanu and Halep). Azarenka's last results are not good. She has not been able to win more than 2 straight matches since she did in Berlin, 4 months ago. In her 1st match here, she benefited from Linette's injury to reach the 2nd round. Now, she has benefited from Kvitova's physical problems to reach the 3rd round (Kvitova needed medical treatment on her thigh in the 1st set). I have seen the whole match and I have to say that it has been really bad. Both players have played really aggressive (as it was expected), but the amount of errors has been excessive. It's also remarkable how bad both players have been with their serve. The first set has been a nightmare. Vika is the best player, but Sasnovich has showed more, much more. These players have never played before.
  11. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - October 4 - October 10   
    Well done from Zidansek!
    Petra Kvitova to beat Viktoria Azarenka at 2.07 with Pinnacle
    These two haven't met since 2019 and it should be an interesting clash. I'm not sure why Kvitova should be the underdog, though. Azarenka was poor against Baptiste, while Kvitova was hitting it like a beast against Rus. If she brings the same level of play, she will crush Azarenka. I'd have Kvitova as a 1.85 sort of favorite here in all honesty.
  12. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - October 4 - October 10   
    Tamara Zidansek to beat Ana Konjuh at 2.27 with Pinnacle
    I saw Konjuh recently and wasn't impressed, the slowish conditions shouldn't suit her style either. Zidansek is way more flexible and I'm not sure why she's such a decent underdog in this one.
  13. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from Torque in Tennis Tips - October 4 - October 10   
    Norrie lost the San Diego final badly to Ruud. A crushing defeat.
  14. Like
    four-leaf reacted to money44 in Tennis Tips - October 4 - October 10   
    Stake amount 100% total(2 bets)
    Martina Trevisan 80% to beat Anett Kontaveit @ odds +550 with William Hill
    Trevisan is one of my favorite players to bet, and in the beginning I lost a couple times on her, and then recovered all loss and large profit after French Open surprises.. I believe she is a good athlete with solid technique and fighting mentality. Hard courts are not her surface at all, but Indian Wells plays different than most hard courts and heavier shots get rewarded nicely by the court. Trevisan won her last match as a small underdog, and it was close.. She worked very hard but was moving very and striking even better. If you look at the past scores for Trevisan and Bouzkova.. I think you would be confused how Martina wins this, but Bouzkova can be tough to beat at times, and I think she wanted to advance in this tournament or atleast take extra payday.  So in long story.. Martina is a player that I expect is good to back moving forwards in the future in clay events and maybe some surprise hardcourt wins. Her doubles partner Cocciaretto also goes overlooked and has flawless technique from the few times I've seen her.  I looked closely @ Kontaveit's results in this tournament and I don't think the conditions are great for her. In 2019 she did well beating Puig, Sevastova, and losing a close match to Pliskova in R16.. But, I can make a case that this is still not impressive for me if players like Puig and Sevastova were not playing in top form.  I think the odds are somewhat reasonable because Trevisan has little history on hardcourts, but I still am going to go with Martina. 
    Tennys Sandgren 20% to beat Cameron Norrie @ odds +425 with William Hill
    Sandgren the journeyman at 30 years old is a pretty solid all around American player.. I don't think the straight sets win over Monteiro in the first round is a bad look at all.. He also had some competitive matches leading up to this tournament.  I'm not sure why Norrie is rated so highly here, and I don't believe he warrants that price.. He's been taken out in the first round each of his times here, and maybe there were some improvements from him in my tennis absence but I still think the odds are exaggerated by a country mile. 
  15. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - October 4 - October 10   
    I will be playing this one, though.
    Elina Svitolina (-1.5 sets) to beat Tereza Martincova at 1.80 with Pinnacle
    The slow conditions should help Svitolina big time in this match-up, Martincova typically needs some help to hit through. The Czech has had some good results lately, but Svitolina is capable of just crushing her if she plays to her standard.
  16. Like
    four-leaf reacted to darko08 in Tennis Tips - October 4 - October 10   
    Harris (-2.5 Games) to beat Davidovich Fokina at 1.85 with Unibet
    Fokina is in a really bad moment. Since the Olympics he only has won 2 of the 7 matches he has played, and those 2 victories have been against Simon and Steve Johnson... He even lost against Trungelliti in the 1st round of the USO. He has been really lucky to face Johnson in the 1st round here, otherwise he probably would have lost again. Harris is in the best moment of his career. He did not play well in San Diego (he struggled to beat Eubanks and he lost against Schwartzmann, after requiring a MTO). Having said this, Harris is still the better player in this moment.
    Dimitrov (-3.5 Games) to beat Altmaier at 1.94 with Unibet
    Dimitrov is miles away from the player he was, but the difference between him and Altmaier is still huge. Altmaier beat Querrey (6-2, 6-4) in his 1st match here, but I would like to point 2 things. Firstly, Querrey is in a really bad moment (7 losing streak). Secondly, Altmaier played his 1st match on hard of the year. Just 1 week ago, he was playing a challenger in Peru (on clay), so he has not prepared this tournament at all. As I said, Dimitrov is not at his best, but he won some matches in San Diego (Fucsovics and Karatsev), and he was close to beat Ruud in the SFs (6-4, 4-6, 6-4). If nothing strange happens, Dimitrov should win this match comfortably.
    Schwartzmann (2-0) to beat Cressy at 1.90 with Unibet
    Cressy has had a lot of problems to reach this round. He even had problems to beat Moriya (6-4, 4-6, 6-3) in his 1st match here, despite being a huge favorite (1.22). He also had problems to beat Coucaud (7-5, 6-7, 6-2) and Djere (6-7, 6-1, 7-5). It seems Cressy's big serve is not as effective as it is in other hard courts. Schwartzmann has not showed his best tennis recently and he was pathetic during the Davis Cup, but I think he should take advantage of these courts slowness to beat Cressy.
    If I don't get profits with these 3 I won't place more bets until the Paris Masters, which is played in November. GL to all of you!
  17. Like
    four-leaf reacted to money44 in Tennis Tips - October 4 - October 10   
    Crazy good call on Gomez @four-leaf Extremely well measured there.  
    I want you guys to know that I have been away from tennis for a long time, and took a couple wrong guesses during Wimbledon this year, and thats about it for the past god knows how long.. So I'm not dialed into these players forms at all or any of the new players really.. I didn't find out Radacanu won the US open until about a month after it happened.  
    I did take a quick look at the lines and tried to find something that might be able to help out.. I'm going to try and post more reliable picks here in my attempt to return here in cooperation... However, this is not one of them just based on the bookmaker odds anyway.  I was hoping for some help and opinions what you guys think. 
    Unofficial play: Renzo Olivo to beat Carballes Baena @ 3.24
    I just don't believe Baena is doing well in this moment.. I think he has lingering injury of some nature.. I don't know what it is at all.. Hamstring or something.. Can be anything.. He retired in August challenger and has had some long tournaments on clay leading up to this event.. I think the conditions favor Olivo for some reason and he might have the fresher legs or ball striking.. I like the fact that Olivo has taken 4 out of the first 5 sets of his first two matches, and only dropping the remaining set 8-6 in a tiebreaker... I haven't seen any recent live match play from him or Baena.. This is purely based on statistics. Also, I don't think it helps Baena's cause here to come in directly off the claycourts when Olivo already has a couple matches under his belt in these heavier conditions... So, I like the bet, and I'd probably rate it @ around 40% chance to win.  This gives around a 10% edge over the implied odds. 
     
     
  18. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from money44 in Tennis Tips - October 4 - October 10   
    Emilio Gomez is pretty solid pick to beat Dr Ivo.
  19. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - October 4 - October 10   
    Lizette Cabrera (+5.5) to beat Magdalena Frech at 1.95 with Pinnacle
    Hontama has dropped big time and I also like this one. Not a huge analysis, it's based mainly of what I saw in Cabrera against Rogers. It was a decent performance despite the awful scoreline and she can still play very good tennis. She won't be competing for the top spots anytime soon, but a slight improvement from last week would see her cover this line comfortably imo.
  20. Like
    four-leaf reacted to CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - October 4 - October 10   
    Mai Hontama to beat Panna Udvardy at 1.52 with Pinnacle
    I'm not convinced that Hontama can become an elite player, but I'm convinced that she's miles above Udvardy on hard courts. Her accomplishments from last week should also provide her with plenty of confidence. Udvardy is mostly a clay court specialist.
  21. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - September 27 - October 3   
    Thanasi Kokkinakis to beat (-1.5 games) Stefano Travaglia at 1.76 with Coolbet
    Thanasi is cruising this week. No set lost yet this week and he seems like he wants this title. Stefano has been struggling badly last two matches so this should be the end of the road for him.
  22. Like
    four-leaf reacted to darko08 in Tennis Tips - September 27 - October 3   
    Rublev to win the ATP San Diego at 1.83 with bet365
    Rublev will play against Norrie in the SFs and then he will play against Ruud or Dimitrov. I haven't much to say. Rublev has destroyed Nakashima (6-2, 6-1) and Schwartzmann (6-1, 7-5). I also have seen Norrie a little bit, and I have to say that I saw him really well. He has beat Koepfer, Evans and Shapo without dropping a single set, but he came here from a 4 losing streak and I think Rublev is just playing too good right now. I'm not worried for that big win over Shapo cause the canadian has been a mess since Wimbledon and now he's free falling. As I said, if Rublev beats Norrie he will face Dimitrov or Ruud. Ruud is the favorite player according to the odds. He has improved a lot on this surface but it's important to remark that his favorite surface is clay and he has never played an ATP final on hard. Regardless of who wins that match Rublev will be the big favorite.
  23. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from darko08 in Tennis Tips - September 27 - October 3   
    Thanasi Kokkinakis to beat (-1.5 games) Stefano Travaglia at 1.76 with Coolbet
    Thanasi is cruising this week. No set lost yet this week and he seems like he wants this title. Stefano has been struggling badly last two matches so this should be the end of the road for him.
  24. Like
    four-leaf got a reaction from CzechPunter in Tennis Tips - September 27 - October 3   
    I have found 2.40 at Coolbet
  25. Like
    four-leaf reacted to StevieDay1983 in Championship Predictions > Oct 1st & 2nd   
    Cardiff vs Reading
    Hello darkness, my old friend. It's that time of the week again when I get to share my thoughts with you about how God damn awful Cardiff are and this week it's the turn of Reading to rock up to the Cardiff City Stadium at 3pm BST on Saturday afternoon and pummel us into the ground in yet another demoralising display of managerial ineptitude and head-scratching decisions when it comes to player selection. This should be fun!
    Cardiff are bog dreadful. If I had to describe how bad we were playing right now I'd say it was the footballing equivalent of Boris Johnson's sex routine. Mick McCarthy continues to stick with the 3-5-2 system that I repeat every week does not work and that we do not possess the players that suit it. How on earth he hasn't even looked at changing our formation at the very least is mind-boggling. The decision to literally play 5 centre backs across our back-line against West Brom in midweek including Mark McGuinness and Ciaron Brown as wing backs with Ryan Giles playing as a second striker and Leandro Bacuna as the AM is quite frankly worthy of requiring him to be sectioned under the mental health act. The general feeling throughout our fan base is that McCarthy is actively seeking to be sacked so he can take the compensation pay packet. It's now 6 defeats from the last 7 across all competitions and we've deserved every single one of those losses. That single win being a 2-1 victory against a lowly Nottingham Forest side that we didn't even really deserve to win. We are now down in 18th place and just 3 points above the relegation zone. Dark times for Cardiff and it's shocking that McCarthy survived after Tuesday night's hammering.
    Reading. Oh, God. If you follow anything I post on Twitter then you'll know that I get on with the Reading fans really well. Apologies for the sarcasm. It's not a club I have a lot of time for and they constantly remind me of their feelings for me because of that. The Royals (see, even their club nickname is arrogant) are in 11th place after a patchy start to their league campaign. Manager Veljko Paunovic guided his team to 7th place last season but they started this season slowly with just 1 win from their opening 7 competitive games including 5 defeats. Form has turned around recently though with the club managing to earn 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches. Attacking midfielder John Swift has been the stand out man for the team with 7 goals to his name already. It'll be interesting to see how the players react to the disappointing 1-0 loss away to rock bottom Derby in midweek.
    As if my Cardiff previews didn't need any more negativity I'm going to throw some head-to-head statistics into the mix. Reading are unbeaten in their last 11 matches with Cardiff across all competitions. The last time Cardiff beat Reading at home was back on 7th November, 2015. 4 of the last 5 meetings have ended in a draw but I can only see one outcome here again. A Reading win and if Cardiff lose this then McCarthy, who is seen as a dead man walking by many already, will surely be relieved of his duties. I'd back anyone to beat us right now and Reading look well worth backing at that price.
    Reading Draw No Bet @ 2.78 with SBK
    Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.96 with Matchbook
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