four-leaf

Taylor Fritz to win a set - Yes at 2.00 with bet365
Alcaraz the rightful favorite, but I happen to disagree with how the experts rate the two opponents. Both players have yet to drop a set in Miami. Fritz dismantled Rune (6-3, 6-4) and all the hype around him, whereas the Spaniard faced Tommy Paul, and prevailed quite easily in straight sets (6-4, 6-4) as well. If I try to break down the individual elements of both players' game I'll probably come down to this:
Better FH - Alcaraz
Better BH - Taylor Fritz
Better Serve - Taylor Fritz
Better Volley - Alcaraz
Better Smash & Overhead - Taylor Fritz 
Better Drop shot - Alcaraz
Better Slice - Taylor Fritz 
Better Retrieving skills - Alcaraz
Better Stamina - Alcaraz 
Better Tactical player - Taylor Fritz 
 
Looks like a well balanced combat, doesn't it? Where on earth did they find these odds?!?

Nadia Podoroska (+1.5 sets) to beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto at 1.70 with Pinnacle
I saw both Podoroska and Cocciaretto in the previous round, and Podoroska looked much better in the tricky conditions. She also has more power in her shots, and that should do her a lot of good in this match-up given the conditions, especially if Cocciaretto is as defensively minded as in round one. I like the odds for Podoroska to win at least a set.

I was thinking of going Murphy -2,5 but odds are too low at 1,70 , and the handicap -3,5 is i feel a bit too risky ;
if Murphy wins the 1st frame i might bet live Milkins +4,5

Second day at the Tour Championship and it's Ali Carter taking on Kyren Wilson to find out who will be playing Ding in the Semi Finals. Wilson has beaten Carter in the last couple of matches now. He has beaten him over shorter formats, which really is the majority format with Snooker. You don't really see too much of the longer format now and Carter most certainly doesn't play a great deal of the 'best of 10s' and you'd have to give the nod to Kyren in terms of his experience on both the one table format aswell as the 'best of 21' structure.
Carters had some great form recently and won the German Masters but we're being critical, I'm not sure he beats the best players to a high degree. When he played in the Euro Masters he got to the Semi-Finals and actually went out to Kyren Wilson. To get there he has beaten Wu Yize, Grace, Bingham, Cahill and Reanne Evans. He does beat players that he's supposed to but unless it's a best of 7 I just feel like he is vulernable to this longer format and I think Kyren wins. Even the German Masters win for Carter. He beat Carrington, Robbie Williams, handed a walkover and then beat Heathcote, Junxu and Milkins. Only to get Tom Ford in a final. You couldn't ask for a nicer route.
I'm going to give both players to hit 2+ centuries a go in this mach also. I do think we'll see atleast 16-17 frames and the bet although the bet i'd really like is Wilson to win and hit 2+ centuries, I've yet to see it so at 9/2 (in my mind) I'm betting on Carter to hit a couple, too. One thing Carter is doing well is score heavily when he's in.

4pts K.Wilson (-1.5 frame handicap) to beat A.Carter evens bet365
2pts Both players 2+ centuries 9/2 skybet
 

I'll also add this bet tomorrow. 
Murphy hit a 143 in his defeat against Cahill last week. He hit a 140 in the previous round and breaks of 141 and 145 in the final of the Players. He has already hit a 147 this season in the win over Daniel Wells at the Welsh Open. In which he also hit a 145. This was only a month ago. Milkins also despite his recent form being perhaps low par has also hit a 147 this season in the QF of the German Masters against Wakelin. He has also hit a 146 this season.
So both players have hit a 147. Both are wide open players who attack and score well. 22/1. I'll have a half point on that.
0.5pts 147 in the match 22/1 bet365

Was a dire 2nd session. No centuries but a 99 for K.Wilson and 92 for Carter. Ended 1 century a piece but atleast the handicap bet came in I suppose. 

Tsatsiki will get the job done

8 frames. All done until 7pm

Tisitsipas vs. Kachanov @1.86
Tsitsipas not in a good shape lately, hence the odds… but he is 6-1 in previous matches against Kachanov, with 4-0 on hard courts, that should give him good chances to take this one.
Based on the form, one should back Sonego today, who played really well against Tiafoe and faces now Cerundolo, who defeated an unrecognisable FAA. Sonego is not the most reliable player and I don’t know how he matches with Cerundolo, so probably I’ll pass

@CzechPunter I know you will find this one strange, but any opinion on the chances of Trevisan today? She is a player that is under-estimated at times. What are the chances she finally learned how to play on hard courts, and cause a huge upset. Well, we can look at her recent results, and she's having some success.. I don't really rate her last win vs Claire Liu much, but she's beaten Hibino in straights, beaten Brengle, and three sets with Muchova at Indian Wells. I have been suspicious of a surprise here. I've seen some film on Trevisan's matches, and her footwork and ball striking looks great to me.. If she is aggressive off the Ostapenko second serve, and can move her around there should be a chance.. Any opinions?
I am now considering a Trevisan/Alexandrova 12.53 parlay. I will have fun more fun with this bet, and perhaps do singles also which is undecided. However.. I think the chances of this hitting are relatively similar to my last suggestion in which the estimate could have been high. But ultimately, I am trying to decide if Trevisan will actually get this thing done, and maybe ride her solo to begin today's matches. 
Update: still searching for a bet to make, and have not found anything reliable.. Good luck!

@Fader backed Kyren Wilson -1.5 in-play along with under 18.5 games in Jessika Ponchet/Amandine Hesse also in-play. I got above 3 times the stake.

@Fader I think you can be cool.. Ding's gonna win.

@Nes* why so confused? Zandschulp did fine.

Thanks, backed u on Ding, 5-3 up now and 5 to go. I suspect he'll win it in the end.

@Nes* why so confused? Zandschulp did fine.

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to beat (-1.5 sets) Sonya Kenin at 2.32 with Unibet
I'm on Bianca tonight because she's been quite reasonable with her game this week and it seems to work for here. I even think she's won Miami before in 2019 or if it was Indian Wells, don't remember but anyway she's got 3 straight 2-0 victories in this matchup. I know Kenin has some connections to Miami being there already at 6 years old and being walked around by Kim Clijsters and saying hello to Andy Roddick. She also wanted to get a haircut at the venue as she told Kim but that was another story. However Bianca is ranked 32 right now and Kenin has made progress with her game but she even lost 2-0 before to Bianca in Miami and the other two times was in Toronto and a smaller ITF. Kenin isn't there yet to challenge Bianca who did well enough by taking out Sakkari to be able to take out Sonya in straights again. So I think this 2.32 price should be taken. Depending on how the match evolves there might be some higher odds to come by in-play but I'm just not gonna sit and wait for that to happen. BTW doesn't Andreescu sound romanian?
Varvara Gracheva to beat (-1.5 sets) Magdalena Frech at 1.94 with Unibet
Varvara has it in her to progress further in this tournament. I don't expect her to win by numbers like 6-2 again because Ons Jabeur is playing much worse than Magdalena is right now. Ons just isn't top 10 quality anymore, not even top 50 to be honest. Varvara however is going forward and has the game to keep playing good enough again to get by Magdalena in straights. Magdalena had some difficulties for a set with Erika Andreeva and it doesn't look good ahead of this matchup so it's gonna be very risky to go against Varvara in this match, even going for Magdalena to take a set could be highly risky. I might be reluctant to take Varvara to cover -4.5 games handicap because like I've said I can't expect Magdalena to play as bad as Ons did and being completely run over tonight since I think there is a chance she'll cover 4.5 games. Even if it gets tight with some tie-break Varvara hasn't shown anything lately suggesting that she would lose a breaker to her polish counterpart. What Varvara does on court now is equal to an inform player in the top 30.
Double at 4.50 with Unibet
Surely should be other bookies like Pinnacle or so outthere offering slightly improved price so go for other bookies if you guys like but I'm gonna stick with my bookie on this one. I don't even like Pinnacle that much because of their turnover requirement of 3 times the deposit.
Back this tonight and it might give a chance for a happy day.

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to beat (-1.5 sets) Sonya Kenin at 2.32 with Unibet
I'm on Bianca tonight because she's been quite reasonable with her game this week and it seems to work for here. I even think she's won Miami before in 2019 or if it was Indian Wells, don't remember but anyway she's got 3 straight 2-0 victories in this matchup. I know Kenin has some connections to Miami being there already at 6 years old and being walked around by Kim Clijsters and saying hello to Andy Roddick. She also wanted to get a haircut at the venue as she told Kim but that was another story. However Bianca is ranked 32 right now and Kenin has made progress with her game but she even lost 2-0 before to Bianca in Miami and the other two times was in Toronto and a smaller ITF. Kenin isn't there yet to challenge Bianca who did well enough by taking out Sakkari to be able to take out Sonya in straights again. So I think this 2.32 price should be taken. Depending on how the match evolves there might be some higher odds to come by in-play but I'm just not gonna sit and wait for that to happen. BTW doesn't Andreescu sound romanian?
Varvara Gracheva to beat (-1.5 sets) Magdalena Frech at 1.94 with Unibet
Varvara has it in her to progress further in this tournament. I don't expect her to win by numbers like 6-2 again because Ons Jabeur is playing much worse than Magdalena is right now. Ons just isn't top 10 quality anymore, not even top 50 to be honest. Varvara however is going forward and has the game to keep playing good enough again to get by Magdalena in straights. Magdalena had some difficulties for a set with Erika Andreeva and it doesn't look good ahead of this matchup so it's gonna be very risky to go against Varvara in this match, even going for Magdalena to take a set could be highly risky. I might be reluctant to take Varvara to cover -4.5 games handicap because like I've said I can't expect Magdalena to play as bad as Ons did and being completely run over tonight since I think there is a chance she'll cover 4.5 games. Even if it gets tight with some tie-break Varvara hasn't shown anything lately suggesting that she would lose a breaker to her polish counterpart. What Varvara does on court now is equal to an inform player in the top 30.
Double at 4.50 with Unibet
Surely should be other bookies like Pinnacle or so outthere offering slightly improved price so go for other bookies if you guys like but I'm gonna stick with my bookie on this one. I don't even like Pinnacle that much because of their turnover requirement of 3 times the deposit.
Back this tonight and it might give a chance for a happy day.

Gonna back you on Zandschulp @Swami

Van De Zandschulp @3.9 vs. Ruud
Going against Ruud here, he is not playing his best tennis lately and H2H in favour of Van De Zandschulp 2-1, with one on hard court won 3-1 by Botic at the USO 2021.
I take also Van De Zandschulp + 1,5 sets @2.1
 

I like the odds but I will stay away from that match anyway, not sure in anything

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to beat (-1.5 sets) Sonya Kenin at 2.32 with Unibet
I'm on Bianca tonight because she's been quite reasonable with her game this week and it seems to work for here. I even think she's won Miami before in 2019 or if it was Indian Wells, don't remember but anyway she's got 3 straight 2-0 victories in this matchup. I know Kenin has some connections to Miami being there already at 6 years old and being walked around by Kim Clijsters and saying hello to Andy Roddick. She also wanted to get a haircut at the venue as she told Kim but that was another story. However Bianca is ranked 32 right now and Kenin has made progress with her game but she even lost 2-0 before to Bianca in Miami and the other two times was in Toronto and a smaller ITF. Kenin isn't there yet to challenge Bianca who did well enough by taking out Sakkari to be able to take out Sonya in straights again. So I think this 2.32 price should be taken. Depending on how the match evolves there might be some higher odds to come by in-play but I'm just not gonna sit and wait for that to happen. BTW doesn't Andreescu sound romanian?
Varvara Gracheva to beat (-1.5 sets) Magdalena Frech at 1.94 with Unibet
Varvara has it in her to progress further in this tournament. I don't expect her to win by numbers like 6-2 again because Ons Jabeur is playing much worse than Magdalena is right now. Ons just isn't top 10 quality anymore, not even top 50 to be honest. Varvara however is going forward and has the game to keep playing good enough again to get by Magdalena in straights. Magdalena had some difficulties for a set with Erika Andreeva and it doesn't look good ahead of this matchup so it's gonna be very risky to go against Varvara in this match, even going for Magdalena to take a set could be highly risky. I might be reluctant to take Varvara to cover -4.5 games handicap because like I've said I can't expect Magdalena to play as bad as Ons did and being completely run over tonight since I think there is a chance she'll cover 4.5 games. Even if it gets tight with some tie-break Varvara hasn't shown anything lately suggesting that she would lose a breaker to her polish counterpart. What Varvara does on court now is equal to an inform player in the top 30.
Double at 4.50 with Unibet
Surely should be other bookies like Pinnacle or so outthere offering slightly improved price so go for other bookies if you guys like but I'm gonna stick with my bookie on this one. I don't even like Pinnacle that much because of their turnover requirement of 3 times the deposit.
Back this tonight and it might give a chance for a happy day.

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to beat (-1.5 sets) Sonya Kenin at 2.32 with Unibet
I'm on Bianca tonight because she's been quite reasonable with her game this week and it seems to work for here. I even think she's won Miami before in 2019 or if it was Indian Wells, don't remember but anyway she's got 3 straight 2-0 victories in this matchup. I know Kenin has some connections to Miami being there already at 6 years old and being walked around by Kim Clijsters and saying hello to Andy Roddick. She also wanted to get a haircut at the venue as she told Kim but that was another story. However Bianca is ranked 32 right now and Kenin has made progress with her game but she even lost 2-0 before to Bianca in Miami and the other two times was in Toronto and a smaller ITF. Kenin isn't there yet to challenge Bianca who did well enough by taking out Sakkari to be able to take out Sonya in straights again. So I think this 2.32 price should be taken. Depending on how the match evolves there might be some higher odds to come by in-play but I'm just not gonna sit and wait for that to happen. BTW doesn't Andreescu sound romanian?
Varvara Gracheva to beat (-1.5 sets) Magdalena Frech at 1.94 with Unibet
Varvara has it in her to progress further in this tournament. I don't expect her to win by numbers like 6-2 again because Ons Jabeur is playing much worse than Magdalena is right now. Ons just isn't top 10 quality anymore, not even top 50 to be honest. Varvara however is going forward and has the game to keep playing good enough again to get by Magdalena in straights. Magdalena had some difficulties for a set with Erika Andreeva and it doesn't look good ahead of this matchup so it's gonna be very risky to go against Varvara in this match, even going for Magdalena to take a set could be highly risky. I might be reluctant to take Varvara to cover -4.5 games handicap because like I've said I can't expect Magdalena to play as bad as Ons did and being completely run over tonight since I think there is a chance she'll cover 4.5 games. Even if it gets tight with some tie-break Varvara hasn't shown anything lately suggesting that she would lose a breaker to her polish counterpart. What Varvara does on court now is equal to an inform player in the top 30.
Double at 4.50 with Unibet
Surely should be other bookies like Pinnacle or so outthere offering slightly improved price so go for other bookies if you guys like but I'm gonna stick with my bookie on this one. I don't even like Pinnacle that much because of their turnover requirement of 3 times the deposit.
Back this tonight and it might give a chance for a happy day.

Bianca Vanessa Andreescu to beat (-1.5 sets) Sonya Kenin at 2.32 with Unibet
I'm on Bianca tonight because she's been quite reasonable with her game this week and it seems to work for here. I even think she's won Miami before in 2019 or if it was Indian Wells, don't remember but anyway she's got 3 straight 2-0 victories in this matchup. I know Kenin has some connections to Miami being there already at 6 years old and being walked around by Kim Clijsters and saying hello to Andy Roddick. She also wanted to get a haircut at the venue as she told Kim but that was another story. However Bianca is ranked 32 right now and Kenin has made progress with her game but she even lost 2-0 before to Bianca in Miami and the other two times was in Toronto and a smaller ITF. Kenin isn't there yet to challenge Bianca who did well enough by taking out Sakkari to be able to take out Sonya in straights again. So I think this 2.32 price should be taken. Depending on how the match evolves there might be some higher odds to come by in-play but I'm just not gonna sit and wait for that to happen. BTW doesn't Andreescu sound romanian?
Varvara Gracheva to beat (-1.5 sets) Magdalena Frech at 1.94 with Unibet
Varvara has it in her to progress further in this tournament. I don't expect her to win by numbers like 6-2 again because Ons Jabeur is playing much worse than Magdalena is right now. Ons just isn't top 10 quality anymore, not even top 50 to be honest. Varvara however is going forward and has the game to keep playing good enough again to get by Magdalena in straights. Magdalena had some difficulties for a set with Erika Andreeva and it doesn't look good ahead of this matchup so it's gonna be very risky to go against Varvara in this match, even going for Magdalena to take a set could be highly risky. I might be reluctant to take Varvara to cover -4.5 games handicap because like I've said I can't expect Magdalena to play as bad as Ons did and being completely run over tonight since I think there is a chance she'll cover 4.5 games. Even if it gets tight with some tie-break Varvara hasn't shown anything lately suggesting that she would lose a breaker to her polish counterpart. What Varvara does on court now is equal to an inform player in the top 30.
Double at 4.50 with Unibet
Surely should be other bookies like Pinnacle or so outthere offering slightly improved price so go for other bookies if you guys like but I'm gonna stick with my bookie on this one. I don't even like Pinnacle that much because of their turnover requirement of 3 times the deposit.
Back this tonight and it might give a chance for a happy day.

@Foo_Fighter Rybakina gonna pay for her lack of game next week. Someone can knock her out this time.

I'm all over Nishioka tonight.
Yoshihito Nishioka to beat (-1.5 games) Alex Molcan at 1.95 with Unibet
Molcan seems so unfit today compared to last season. He's doing his first full season as a top 100 player but he is not convincing. Not even on clay where he should feel as most comfortable. Easy cover for Yoshi.