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Tennis Tips - March 27 - April 2


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Petra Kvitova to beat Varvara Gracheva at 1.50 with William Hill

Varvara Gracheva has some tremendous form to her name, but I'll side with Kvitova for the second time in Miami. For one, Gracheva hasn't played against many players with this sort of raw power recently, and that's where her weakness lies imo, she just isn't able to hit back with the same sort of power. This might upset @money44, but I'm just not seeing it for Gracheva :(.

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Well. It doesn't upset me at all. I always like to hear your thoughts, and respect your tennis opinions at the highest level. I completely disagree with you betting that price on Kvitova because her serve is a massive liability. Gracheva has been consistently underrated in recent matches. I watched some of her highlights, and her game seems really nice to me. 

Kvitova would have more of an advantage in slower hard courts, clay, or grass courts in my opinion. I will admit that I am not following Petra at all in Miami, and could easily be wrong about this. But, I will guess this is going to be a tight match. 

Update: I have reviewed Petra's last match in Miami briefly, and I agree with Czech Punter that Petra Kvitova is indeed in top form right, and I will most likely be looking for a different bet because I cannot trust Gracheva enough to win this. 

Edited by money44
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@CzechPunter I know you will find this one strange, but any opinion on the chances of Trevisan today? She is a player that is under-estimated at times. What are the chances she finally learned how to play on hard courts, and cause a huge upset. Well, we can look at her recent results, and she's having some success.. I don't really rate her last win vs Claire Liu much, but she's beaten Hibino in straights, beaten Brengle, and three sets with Muchova at Indian Wells. I have been suspicious of a surprise here. I've seen some film on Trevisan's matches, and her footwork and ball striking looks great to me.. If she is aggressive off the Ostapenko second serve, and can move her around there should be a chance.. Any opinions?

I am now considering a Trevisan/Alexandrova 12.53 parlayI will have fun more fun with this bet, and perhaps do singles also which is undecided. However.. I think the chances of this hitting are relatively similar to my last suggestion in which the estimate could have been high. But ultimately, I am trying to decide if Trevisan will actually get this thing done, and maybe ride her solo to begin today's matches. 

Update: still searching for a bet to make, and have not found anything reliable.. Good luck!

Edited by money44
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Quentin Halys to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 2.62 with bet365

Altug Celikbilek to beat Antoine Escoffier at 2.25 with bet365 (Challenger Lille, France)

Alexis Galarneau to beat Jan Choinski at 2.2 with bet365 (Challenger Mexico City)

Haddad Maia/Olmos to beat Fernandez/Townsend at 2.2 with bet365

These are the matches I like the most from today's tennis coupon as a whole. Good luck.

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6 hours ago, Swami said:

Don’t like anything today, except for the 2-0 Ostapenko I already posted about in the previous thread. The second week of a 1000 is generally kind of boring betting wise ?

I honestly don't know how someone could consider backing Ostapenko to win in her current form. The thought never crossed my mind. She is a fade player, and dissapoints alot of the time. I do believe she has a chance to come back and win the match tho.

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16 minutes ago, money44 said:

I honestly don't know how someone could consider backing Ostapenko to win in her current form. The thought never crossed my mind. She is a fade player, and dissapoints alot of the time. I do believe she has a chance to come back and win the match tho.

I’m sorry if you lost money following my bet, or if you didn’t bet on Trevisan after reading my comment. You’ll get the next one, and if you will not, it won’t be a tragedy… 

Actually, I didn’t see the match, so I don’t know how it happened that Ostapenko was kind of trashed by Trevisan ?, biggest upset of the tournament so far imo…

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yesterday in ATP the last 5 matches the dogs or small dogs won,

today i am liking 3 small dogs in Rune , Van De Zand, Khachanov, but because of yesterday's results i am afraid of taking them because what is the probability that so many dogs or small dogs win in two straight days

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Tisitsipas vs. Kachanov @1.86

Tsitsipas not in a good shape lately, hence the odds… but he is 6-1 in previous matches against Kachanov, with 4-0 on hard courts, that should give him good chances to take this one.

Based on the form, one should back Sonego today, who played really well against Tiafoe and faces now Cerundolo, who defeated an unrecognisable FAA. Sonego is not the most reliable player and I don’t know how he matches with Cerundolo, so probably I’ll pass

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1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Tsatsiki will get the job done

Tsitsipas odds keep rising, now 2.1 on my book, that’s a big jump… the only thing that comes in mind is that words got out he might have some physical issues, otherwise a 0.25 rise in few hours is difficult to understand ?

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8 minutes ago, Swami said:

Tsitsipas odds keep rising, now 2.1 on my book, that’s a big jump… the only thing that comes in mind is that words got out he might have some physical issues, otherwise a 0.25 rise in few hours is difficult to understand ?

I'm really not into betting on ATP tonight, not even challengers or ITF. Only women appeal now. I've got a bet on Federica Di Sarra at 9.00 x the stake in-play and she's up 5-3 in third. I got her while being up 3-2 in second which she took by 6-4 so I'll give ATP a rest today.

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2 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Di Sarra is hardly on fire, it's more a case of Dodin not being on fire.

Yes, I was told the same happened in the Trevisan-Ostapenko match, with Jelena in disbelief for how she was playing badly… ?

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Some datas you might want to write down in your betting notebook… Andreescu retired 3 times in her very young career while playing in Miami ?2019 -2021 - 2023… being Andreescu injury-prone I think there is also a mental factor in those injuries… or some kind of curse maybe… 

 

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Nadia Podoroska (+1.5 sets) to beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto at 1.70 with Pinnacle

I saw both Podoroska and Cocciaretto in the previous round, and Podoroska looked much better in the tricky conditions. She also has more power in her shots, and that should do her a lot of good in this match-up given the conditions, especially if Cocciaretto is as defensively minded as in round one. I like the odds for Podoroska to win at least a set.

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Taylor Fritz to win a set - Yes at 2.00 with bet365

Alcaraz the rightful favorite, but I happen to disagree with how the experts rate the two opponents. Both players have yet to drop a set in Miami. Fritz dismantled Rune (6-3, 6-4) and all the hype around him, whereas the Spaniard faced Tommy Paul, and prevailed quite easily in straight sets (6-4, 6-4) as well. If I try to break down the individual elements of both players' game I'll probably come down to this:

Better FH - Alcaraz

Better BH - Taylor Fritz

Better Serve - Taylor Fritz

Better Volley - Alcaraz

Better Smash & Overhead - Taylor Fritz 

Better Drop shot - Alcaraz

Better Slice - Taylor Fritz 

Better Retrieving skills - Alcaraz

Better Stamina - Alcaraz 

Better Tactical player - Taylor Fritz 

 

Looks like a well balanced combat, doesn't it? Where on earth did they find these odds?!?

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