ivanhoe

there's a couple of prices I like in Miami today
Storm Sanders at 2.75 vs. Cocciaretto. I watched a couple of Storm's matches this year and was impressed. She defeated Putinseva and Tomljanovic at Adelaide, before losing to Bencic. Cocciaretto I've only seen when she lost to Bouchard in Mexico, but she struggled to hit the ball over the net and looked dreadful. I know she has a lot of wins but most are against players significantly worse than Sanders. 
Marta Kostyuk at 2.62 vs. Pironkova. I see this being a close match. but Kostyuk on her day is unplayable, so happy to take her at longer odds. 
 

Ann Li to win the WTA Monterrey at 10.00 with bet365
I have been following Ann Li for a long time. She is one of the most improved players during the last year and she will be soon in the top 20. This year she has a 6-1 record. She won against Kudermetova, Cirstea and Brady in the Grampians Trophy. In the AO she destroyed Shuai Zhang and Cornet, before losing against Sabalenka (the only player who has defeat her in 2021). The main risk here will be her first matches cause she hasn't played since her match against Sabalenka, but if she wins them she will be a strong candidate to get the title. She's priced at 1.50 against Rus but the value is on her taking the title for the reasons I have explained. If she wins against Rus she will play against Zarazua/Zidansek and then Lin Zhu/Bouchard/Gracheva/Saisai in the QFs. I like the fact that she won't face a strong opponent in the first 3 matches and this is a good opportunity for her to get some rythmn after spent 1 month without playing.

Date
Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
13/03/2021
Sassuolo
Hellas Verona
43.3%
25.4%
31.3%
22.9%
2.64
2.65
5.85
5.68
11.53
13/03/2021
Benevento
Fiorentina
27.2%
28.8%
44.0%
25.0%
2.12
2.31
3.85
6.09
9.94
13/03/2021
Genoa
Udinese
27.7%
31.7%
40.6%
25.0%
1.84
2.13
3.63
4.81
8.45
14/03/2021
Bologna
Sampdoria
36.8%
24.7%
38.5%
20.9%
2.82
2.77
5.66
6.10
11.76
14/03/2021
Torino
Internazionale
9.2%
15.4%
75.4%
23.4%
3.14
2.98
3.31
6.18
9.49
14/03/2021
Parma
Roma
12.9%
17.6%
69.5%
23.9%
3.16
2.99
2.99
5.70
8.68
14/03/2021
Cagliari
Juventus
9.8%
17.6%
72.6%
25.4%
2.79
2.75
4.73
7.33
12.06
14/03/2021
Milan
Napoli
37.0%
23.6%
39.4%
20.6%
3.03
2.91
4.68
6.00
10.68
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
 
Sassuolo dnb @1.88 – hosts had superb last season and didn’t start this one badly either, but their form deteriorated in recent months, performances were really below par and injury situation didn’t help. It is better now, and we can expect this offensive side to pick up more points in remaining games, perhaps remind us what they looked like for most of last season. Verona are well organized side, always difficult to play against, but at current prices I’m happy to go against them. In case of low scoring first half, over1.25 at 1.95ish mark could be worth a shot – current db price for overs is not tempting, and huge market move b4 kick off is unlikely; but both these teams are basically safe from relegation (even though in theory they should still be careful) and we can expect gpg in their games to go up, this especially goes for Sassuolo (who on first sight have ‘high’ 3.2 gpg average this season, but just 14 of 25 games went over 2.5 line).
Napoli dnb @2.02 in big evening game tomorrow, very important for both sides, who seem to be getting back on track  after recent slumps. Still, for Milan this game is sandwiched between big euro games vs ManU, it’s definitely distraction especially now after excellent result and overall display in first leg. Much more was expected from Napoli this season, they should’ve been fighting for title, but quite a few things went wrong, not only problems with injuries or some questionable coaching decisions, there was clearly some bad luck factor present as well – before this game Napoli are leading the league in shots on target differential, and are second in total shots differential, with only Atalanta better. They will be fresher of the two here, motivation is not in doubt, quality difference with full squads maybe on Milan’s side, but just maybe – and in current circumstances with Milan’s heavy schedule and more problems on injury front, it’s actually on Napoli’s side.
Probaby some more comments later or tomorrow, cheers

Leicester vs Sheffield United
The second game of the day in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon is a clash between Champions League-chasing Leicester and relegation-bound Sheffield United at 2pm GMT from the King Power Stadium. The home side are right in the mix to qualify for Europe's elite club competition but can they inflict more heartbreak on a visiting side who confirmed the departure of their manager Chris Wilder on Saturday.
Leicester put a swift end to their two games without a win by beating relegation battlers Brighton by a 2-1 score last weekend. Brendan Rodgers' side is still without key creative midfielder Harvey Barnes and James Maddison but the team is boosted by the anticipated returns of Jonny Evans, Ayoze Perez, and Dennis Praet. The Foxes are in 3rd place and 5 points inside the top four whilst also being just 1 point behind 2nd placed Manchester United. There is reason for Leicester fans to be concerned here though. Only 19 of the club's 53 points earned this season have come at home and top scorer Jamie Vardy has only scored 1 goal in his last 14 games in all competitions. However, Vardy has scored or assisted in each of his last 3 matches against Sheffield United.
Sheffield United were rocked by the mutually agreed termination of Wilder's contract. Many felt the man who was a Blades fan himself would have been the ideal candidate to bring the team straight back up from the Championship. The board's decision to seemingly place former Bournemouth manager Jason Tindall in caretaker charge hasn't exactly been well-received either. The club are rooted to the foot of the league table on 14 points and now 12 points adrift of safety. It's now 11 defeats from their last 13 away league games. Each of their 4 wins in the league have come in midweek matches this season.
I'm not really sure where to start with this. Yes, Leicester have key absentees but what on earth are Sheffield United doing getting rid of Wilder? I feel it's a similar situation to Burnley and Sean Dyche. I'm adamant he'd have been the right man to take them into the Championship campaign next season and get them back up. It's a ruthless game and I'm not a big fan of Tindall. I thought he was very mediocre at Bournemouth with the players he had at his disposal and the funds available. I'm not convinced we'll see a new manager bounce because a lot of the United players seemed very fond of Wilder. I can only back a home win here.
Draw HT/ Leicester FT @ 4.60 with SBK
Leicester to Win to Nil @ 2.30 with BetVictor

Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
Brest
Dijon
55.9%
24.2%
19.9%
26.1%
2.54
2.55
5.76
4.03
9.78
Olympique Lyonnais
Rennes
57.9%
23.2%
18.9%
25.7%
2.71
2.67
4.47
4.51
8.98
Metz
Angers SCO
43.0%
29.7%
27.4%
25.2%
2.07
2.25
5.31
5.43
10.74
Nice
Nimes
51.5%
24.1%
24.5%
24.5%
2.77
2.70
4.78
4.70
9.48
Saint-Etienne
Lens
35.8%
27.9%
36.3%
21.7%
2.36
2.44
4.81
4.80
9.61
Bordeaux
PSG
12.2%
19.0%
68.8%
25.3%
2.84
2.75
4.11
6.03
10.14
Lille
Olympique Marseille
53.1%
28.3%
18.6%
28.2%
2.00
2.20
4.48
3.40
7.89
Montpellier
Lorient
51.8%
22.1%
26.1%
22.9%
3.23
3.00
5.27
4.65
9.92
Nantes
Reims
34.4%
32.6%
33.0%
23.0%
1.82
2.09
4.18
3.29
7.48
Strasbourg
Monaco
26.4%
23.5%
50.1%
23.6%
2.95
2.82
3.08
5.18
8.26
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
Not a lot re hcaps, but a few totals look interesting. First, an ugly looking under 3 @1.86 in Lyon, this is above 5% value even if we go with 2.90 TG number. Perhaps 2.85 as some sort of max to bet off, so down to under 3 @1.77 or under 2.75 @2.05 still fine for cheeky shot. There is preference for Rennes on hcap, which seems even uglier to unders, with visitors in v bad form, no wins in last 7 and 4 straight losses (1 in Cup), so perhaps coaching change that followed was not a big surprise – but it is doubtful how much it will help them long term, as coach Julien Stephan left after 2 and a half years having left a strong mark here with Rennes playing CL and LE as well as winning Coupe de France with him on helm. Lyon have Paqueta suspended following his red card at Marseille, and after a strong run they dropped points in 2 of their last 3 (almost in all 3 actually, as halftime 3-0 lead at Brest almost got to 3-3 in the end), title race in France really heated up with 4 clubs in it and PSG not even close to any sort of domination they had in previous years. Various problems and injuries at PSG played their part here, but it is fair to say that Lyon have been probably the best French side so far. If you want a bizarre h2h info, you should look no further than this fixture: despite consistently being one of the top French teams in last couple of decades, Lyon always had problems with Rennes at home – incredibly, they only won 3 out of last 15 home league games v Rennes, losing last 3 (last 4 if we also include a semifinal cup game from 2 seasons ago, with Rennes winning competition in the end). Strasbourg-Monaco over 2.5 @1.95 is also worth a punt, I was hoping for evens here and it could get there eventually (price improved in last several hours), but this is already enough. Monaco are the form team in France and somewhat surprising title hopefuls after going 10-2-0 in their last 12 league games, they are certainly happy with 2 consecutive clean sheets as well, but this is side whose 21 of 27 league games this season finished over 2.5 line. Strasbourg should’ve conceded more goals at Lille at the weekend, as hosts were wasteful from some promising position, missing the target most of the time, with gk Kawashima also playing his part – however, Strasbourg could have scored more as well, actually could have won it in dying minutes. They are now unbeaten in 3, like to play more open than average French side and have a good oppo in Monaco here, with recent h2h also favoring goals, last 7 between the two all ended over 2.5 line (this is from last 3 seasons plus reverse fixture this season, as next h2h piece of info would take us to year 2008). Next one is Montpellier-Lorient over 2.5 @1.93 – crystal clear model bet, though it has to be said that Montpellier’s key forward Delort is still out. This bet currently works off TG 2.90 as well, so with no further disastrous team-news or bad weather conditions, I’m happy to risk it (would set o2.5 @1.87 and o2.75 @2.08 as some min prices to bet). Nothing on hcap, but was hoping for better price on hosts tbh, perhaps if tomorrow market goes for Lorient and price on Montpellier improves, some rough target would be -1/2 @2.12. Just looking now at corners market for fun, maybe under 9 corners @1.95 in Nantes is worth some beer money. Originaly, hcaps on Nimes and Metz seemed interesting, but quite a bit of chaos with team-news (and no important confirmations yet) means I’ll pass for now. No rain or stronger winds for these games tomorrow, weather should be fine, clear. Cheers

Hi,  there is no new topic on PL forum for this round (not sure if we are allowed to open these, as they contain some standard odds-rtgs data), so with previous post in this topic previewing game for tomorrow, I will also leave my Italy Serie B comments for tomorrow here, please if moderator can later put the post to appropriate midweek thread (if someone opens it)...
Home
Away
h%
d%
a%
jwb1%
RawG
aTG1m
HpC
ApC
TotC
Frosinone
Monza
20.4%
35.9%
43.7%
27.2%
1.90
2.08
4.67
5.36
10.03
Cittadella
Pescara
57.6%
29.1%
13.3%
26.7%
2.49
2.47
6.44
3.60
10.04
Ascoli
Pisa
31.1%
32.2%
36.7%
22.6%
2.53
2.49
4.99
4.29
9.28
Lecce
Virtus Entella
59.7%
26.2%
14.1%
24.4%
3.05
2.83
5.28
3.75
9.03
Vicenza Virtus
Cremonese
34.9%
33.8%
31.3%
22.1%
2.31
2.35
4.62
4.55
9.16
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)
Monza -1/4 @2.11 is a bet, although tbh I was hoping for a bit better price, and it may improve later on, but this is already enough to recommend it. Monza are a serious promotion contender this season, no real weak spots in this side, though their form is not so good, with just 3 wins in last 9 games, and not undeservedly so, as performances dropped a bit recently as well, highlighted with saturday's 0-0 at home v fellow promotion hopefuls Cittadella, in a game where Monza were outplayed in general and probably should be happy with a point in the end. Two of their biggest stars Boateng and Balotelli are out for this one, but while the former is not irrelevant, Mario's absence should make no difference at all. Youngster Pirola who impressed in last two games will also sit this one out, but except for full 90 mins of playtime in those last 2 games he has just 35 more minutes this season. After 25 games, Monza's +2.20 shtgt differential is the best in the league, while their +4.05 total shots diff is 4th best, there is really little doubt this side is placed in current standings where they should be - and pretty much same can be said for mid-placed Frosinone, who should not flirt with relegation but also should have nothing to do with promotion race... though with playoff system in place, you never know. If Monza's form has dropped a bit in last several weeks, Frosinone's has pretty much plummeted, with just 1 single win in last 13 games, and it was a lucky one, 3-2 away win against the run of play at bottom-placed Entella. Hosts have more quality on paper than what they are showing on field, there are some high profile names for Serie B here, with several of them playing for Frosi in Serie A two seasons ago; and vast majority from last season's playoff run are also here... but this is simply not a good enough 'team', it's the second season in a row they seem to be missing something, they were lucky to get into playoffs last season in first place, then proceeded to almost win it, as they had Spezia on the ropes in that last game, but it wasn't to be. While I was hoping for dnb 180 or -1/4 220+, current price is still high enough as some min to bet would be in range of 203 -1/4.
Lecce-Entella over 2.5 @1.93 is also a bet, though admittedly this line feels too high for Serie B; but first, it is chaotic Lecce who are involved, this is the team whose games (deservedly) had default TG line set to 3.0 this season as well; and on the other side it is Entella, who are leaking goals but also playing with more ambition in recent weeks, their current table position won't be helped with many draws, though they would certainly be happy with one tomorrow. Expected this to be set at 2.75 with overs priced around evens, so really can't resist this, it's basically 17-18 pts from current market price (o2.5 @1.93 / o2.75 @2.19). Lecce won reverse fixture 5-1, can't expect anything similar this time around, but both teams to score and then some more is realistic, keeping clean sheets is not their strength, Entella haven't done so in last 8, crazy Lecce in last 7 (or in 21 of last 23 if you like that more).
While model likes Pisa for tomorrow, this is the game I would disagree with numbers, as Ascoli are one of the most improved sides in last month, their results improved but their performances merited even more, in fact in last 5 games their +6 shots differential and +3.2 shtgt diff are respectively 2nd best and best in the league, this was enough for just 1-2-2 record, and this run included games against Lecce, Salernitana, Pordenone and Frosinone, who are all either in playoff position or close, with only Reggiana in lower part of table (game that Ascoli lost 0-1, but had man disadvantage for 50+ mins and outshot hosts 20-9, on tgt 9-2); prior to this run they beat Brescia 2-1 at home winning shot attempts 25-6 (6-2 on tgt) and had a goalless draw in even game v very good Chievo side. Pisa are a tricky oppo to play against, and current price on Ascoli (208 -1/4) doesn't attract me enough, but in case of some huge move on visitors tomorrow, dnb 187ish on hosts would do it for anti-model bet. All of Pisa's 12 away games had 2 goals or more in it, model has this one at 2.50ish for TG, in case of price improvement overs could be interesting for bet, my current target is over 2.25 @2.03 (in case of 0-0 or 1 goal first half, rough halftime targets would be over 1 @1.75 or over 1.25 @2.25).
For all 3 mentioned games weather should be fine tomorrow, 10-13^c during games, clear or v little precip, no problems.

Uggghhhh, not looking forward to this one @StevieDay1983
Palace probably have the strongest squad of players in their entire history this season (2 decent players for every position) but this has led to a ridiculous amount of rotation. The back four in particular has been laughable, would be interested if someone could tell me the last time Palace started the same back four; two league games in a row?!?! This has led to Palace having the 4th worst defence in the Premier League at the time of writing this (42 goals conceded from 24 games). Must Hodgson take some of the blame for said rotation? It's hard to say because you don't know what goes on behind the scenes with fatigue and niggling injuries. I will say that it is very difficult for the team to generate a cohesion and understanding between players when they start one week and are dropped the next. This has now affected confidence in a noticeable way and Palace have played poorly in their last two games.
What about Brighton? Who knows, even if fans were allowed in the stadium they would probably only defect to Torquay or the Scilly Isles within minutes where the clackers come cheap and the song sheets are free. Don't ask @Tiffy about the game, I've heard he's at Jamaica Inn negotiating a hostile takeover of Rye Rovers with his Peruvian business associates.

I will share this with you from experience which relates to a practice that i religiously carry out before every tournament and especially in relation to Grand slams. I emphasize, especially Grand slams. It is also applicable to every sport and 8 times out of 10 will send you in the right direction especially in the early rounds of tournaments. First rule, do not ever ask why a certain price is high or low and then resort to reason it out ordinarily bounded by head knowledge. You will always be misled 9 times out of 10. I have said this so many times, that the odds always determine the outcome of any match or event. You just need to be able to train your spirit man or inner self to be able to understand and translate these odd movements to put to positive use.

I have been studying the science of odds movements for over 20 years now and still studying. The results are amazing and thought-provoking. There are two characteristics that constantly and positively influences all markets in relation to betting namely, market moves and market forces. Market moves are the deliberate involuntary movements of odds in whatever direction that precisely indicate who the winner will be depending one one's ability to translate the particular movement. Market force is the resultant influence of the movement of odds on the general outcome. That is to say that the market force always has the power to control the outcome of any game taking into account before hand all possible permutations and external factors like rain, defaults, injury, covid, you name it. When you come to understand the influence and dynamics of odds on the market, it almost makes you believe that the result of any given game is settled even before a racket touches a ball. I use "almost" because I do not want to be the one to unveil what has been a hidden fact for years and turn to be the subject of intense questioning. There is so much to write about on this topic with so little time to do it. Most people who have been involved in gambling for at least 5 years will attest to the fact that certain things have happened to them in way of betting outcomes that they have found very hard to explain. Some include How some bets have suddenly been lost from impregnable winning positions defying all plausible explanation. Why the last leg of a parlay is always a loser 9 times out of 10. What odds and cashouts were made to accomplish, why when you change your mind, it is to lose, Why when you take the cashout early the selection goes on to win and lose most times you leave the cashout. Why everyone focuses on the same games even from a list of over 100 match entries. The list goes on.

Here is what i am going to share with you and trust me, it will constantly help you as long as you remember to use it. Before any tournament especially grand slams, take a screen shot of the odds the first time they come out from whatever website you use. On the desktop you can just right click on the long list and save it. Next day repeat the same thing maybe at the same time or just a bit earlier. Repeat again next day. Save individually. Study very closely the movement of odds in relation to the various matches over that time frame and especially a few hours before the start of play. Some will not move. Focus on the ones that move and closely monitor. You will come to realize over time that the odds actually have a final say over the results most times, again I emphasize, depending on how you have trained your spirit man to bookmark these various changes on the charts.

Once you have successfully been able to train yourself for some time to understand these sequences at least over time, you will then in most cases be able to use your bookmarking ability to good effect and get better as the months and years go on. In other words you will eventually be able to mentally make up your own odds in your head which would automatically tally with the bookmakers odds even before you see the market. You always know something is wrong when the bookmaker's odds is far from what is the product of your mental precision. That really becomes your first point of diagnosis. You then proceed to check your charts going days back, then check current form, and a few other external factors for further confirmation.  Remember the movement of odds and the consequent indication of market forces are much much more important than the subject of the activity. Good luck!

Leeds vs Crystal Palace
The Monday night football game in the Premier League this week is an 8pm GMT kick-off between Leeds and Crystal Palace at Elland Road. This is a game the home side will feel they need to win if they want to consolidate their mid-table league position against a travelling team that come into this match having won back-to-back games against fellow mid-table rivals.
Leeds remain the great entertainers this season but as wonderful as it is to watch from a neutral perspective it's becoming frustrating for the Whites fans to see their team endure such inconsistent results. Marcelo Bielsa's side are in 11th place with 9 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses this season. It's impossible to tell which Leeds will turn up. Will it be the Leeds that beat West Brom 5-0 away or will it be the Leeds that lost 4-1 at home to Leicester? Speaking of 4-1, that's the score-line that Crystal Palace beat Leeds by in their meeting at Selhurst Park earlier this season. Recent form isn't very good with Leeds losing 4 of their last 6 matches. The team has also failed to earn a clean sheet in this calendar year so far. Interestingly, Leeds games have averaged 3.52 goals per game in the league.
Crystal Palace will understandably feel like this is a game they can win after their convincing victory over Leeds in their last league encounter. Roy Hodgson's teams have won their last 2 league games and currently sit in 13th place. The team will have to handle this game without leading man Wilfried Zaha but the form of Eberechi Eze in recent games should give them hope. The absence of Zaha will be a concern though given the fact they have lost 16 of the last 18 games he's not played in. The Eagles are without a win in their last 8 league games played on a Monday night. They have also lost on each of their last 5 visits to Elland Road across all competitions.
I think if Zaha was playing in this game then I'd have a confidence in Crystal Palace to get the job done. Unfortunately, he's missing after picking up that hamstring injury against Newcastle and I think this could cause problems. Leeds are a relentless force and with the home side winning 8 of the last 10 meetings in this fixture it feels like Leeds are due some revenge.
Leeds to Win @ 1.94 with Novibet
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.73 with SBK

Ashleigh Barty to win the 1st quarter at 2.87 with bet365
Barty will face Kovinic in the 1st round, Sorribes/Gavrilova in the 2nd round, S.Zheng/Krejcikova/Trevisan/Alexandrova in the 3rd round, Kontaveit/Sasnovich/Kr.Pliskova/Watson/F.Jones/Rogers/Danilovic/Martic in the 4th round and Bencic/Davis/Kuznetsova/Strycova/Zhu/Osuigwe/Leylah/Mertens/Muchova/Ostapenko/Barthel/Cocciaretto/Collins/Bogdan/Paolini/Ka.Pliskova in the QFs. IMO I don't see too many players there who can beat her and she has a big advantage: she can win most of the players  without even playing good... Alexandrova in the 3rd round could trouble her a little bit but I can't imagine her winning the match. Then Kontaveit, Rogers and Martic in the 4th round. I watched her against Rogers and despite dropping a set against her the sensation of superiority was clear. Martic is far from her best form and Kontaveit hasn't showed her best tennis recently either so I don't see them as big threats for Barty. In the QFs the player I fear the most is Mertens. I don't expect too much from Karolina Pliskova, and Bencic's form is really poor as well. Collins is a player to be considered but, as I said, I think Barty has been lucky with the draw and I expect her to win this quarter.
Danielle Collins (vs Bogdan) + Iga Swiatek (vs Rus) at 1.61 with 888
Bogdan ended 2020 with a negative record (7-8). She has played a couple of matches here, winning against Rakhimova and losing against Barty, both in straight sets. As I said before, Collins has played her best tennis ever here in Australia and she has done well recently, winning against Bonaventure, Stojanovic and Karolina Pliskova. She finally lost against Serena but she took a set from her (2-6, 6-4, 6-10). 
Rus' record in Australia is pretty bad and she hasn't done well recently.
She lost her last match played here against Venus (6-1, 6-3) and she also lost in the 1s round in Abu Dhabi against Xiyu Wang. Swiatek has played a couple of matches here. She won against her best friend Kaja Juvan in the 1st round but then lost in 2 sets against Alexandrova. The current RG champion did well here the last year. She won against Babos, Carla Suárez Navarro and Vekic, all of them in straight sets, and finally lost against Kontaveit in a tight match.
Victoria Azarenka (vs Pegula) + Nadia Podoroska (vs McHale) at 1.82 with 888
Azarenka has withdrawn from her QFs match against Kontaveit. She said she had a lower back problem but it's pretty obvious she had nothing and she did to be fit for the AO. Osaka also has withdrawn from her match against Mertens... They just don't want to risk the AO. Pegula's record on hard courts is impressive, but the 99% of her victories are on american soil. The only time she has played the AO 
was in 2020 and she lost in 2 sets against Towsend while Azarenka has won the whole tournament 2 times... Pegula has won here against Mladenovic and Barthel, and she has lost against Kenin in a 3 set match. In Abu Dhabi she lost in the 1st round against Svitolina, in straight sets. Azarenka has won her only match here against Putintseva. Despite being Pegula a good hard court player it would shock me a lot to see Azarenka losing this match considering how good she has been playing, especially in the USO. McHale was one of the players who was under a strict quarantine. She has  lost in her only match played here against Kontaveit (1-6, 3-6) and that's the only one she has played since RG. As I said before, Podoroska is in her best moment right now. She has won here against Jones, Minnen and Kvitova. She finally lost against Vondrousova despite taking the 1st set.
Sorana Cirstea to beat Patricia Maria Tig at 1.52 with 888
Cirstea is in a good form. She comes from winning an ITF tournament in Dubai, where she beat Blinkova, Cocciaretto, Krejcikova, Hercog and Siniakova. She has won against Kalashnikova and Bencic, both in 2 sets, and she's still to play against Ann Li in so she's currently in a 7 winning streak. Tig has lost the only match she has played here against Babos (6-7, 3-6). Cirstea is in a good form and feels so much better than Tig on hard courts so I expect her to win this match.
Barbora Krejcikova to beat Saisai Zheng at 1.53 with 888
I haven't seen Saisai for a while... looks like she has been a little bit inactive due to the pandemic. She has played 1 match here, against Begu (6-3, 5-7, 4-6) and then she has no matches played since February 2020. In the other side, Krejcikova looks great. As I said before, the former world number 1 on doubles had a great 2020 on singles, and looks like that good form is still going on in 2021 cause she has won here against Davis and Rybakina and she’s still to play against Brady.
Anastasija Pavlyuchenkova to beat Naomi Osaka at 5.00 with bet365
Osaka has been really unlucky. As I said before, Pavlyuchenkova always has played really well here. The last year here she lost against Gauff in the 3rd round while Pavlyuchenkova reached the QFs, where she lost against Muguruza in a tight match. Before that she beat Kerber and Karolina Pliskova. Osaka is the big favorite but it deserves a try at these odds.
I know some tournaments still on but i'm out for the weekend. GL.

Alright, it's the first Grand Slam of the season and it should be a good one!
Ashley Barty to win the 1st quarter at 3.00 with Bet365
Following @darko08 on this one, especially since it's now drifted out to 3.00. Same reasoning.
Naomi Osaka to win the 3rd quarter at 3.10 with Bet365
The second and fourth quarter look messy to me, but I'll stick with the favorites in the first and third one. Osaka has looked good so far in this season and has the right mentality as well. The rest of the field looks undercooked, so there's not as much danger as she would've faced in other quarters.
Matteo Berrettini to go further than Stan Wawrinka at 2.50 with Bet365
Although Berrettini did lose against Medvedev, he's had some seriously good efforts recently and his draw doesn't look impossible. Stan, on the other hand, hasn't played much and he hasn't played at all against top opposition. One has to wonder a bit about his fitness levels as well, so I'm more than happy to take the top 10 player over the aging former top 10 player here.
Viktoria Azarenka to go further than Bianca Andreescu at 2.00 with Bet365
Bianca hasn't played a match for more than a year, yet she's favored to go pretty far here. I get that she's strong and talented, but come on. There's a reason why everyone was itching to play the preparatory tournaments, you do need match practice in the world of tennis unless you are Federer. She has a tricky draw as well and I wouldn't be that shocked to see her fall in the early rounds. Buzarnescu can be tricky to navigate and then she'll have Hsieh or Pironkova, both quite tricky in different respects.
Alex Bolt to beat Norbert Gombos at 1.91 with William Hill
Bolt had a good run in the preparatory tournaments and he's always played well above his usual level in home conditions. He gives it his all in Melbourne year in year out. Gombos has only played one match this year, losing tamely against Purcell, so what exactly makes him the fav here is beyond me. He is the superior player overall, but the situational factors speak against him a lot.
Yoshihito Nishioka (-1.5 sets) to beat Pedro Martinez at 1.96 with Unibet
Nishioka did have a tough time in the ATP Cup, but he was playing decently by my standard's. He could've easily grabbed a set of Pella and Martinez will be a solid step down in terms of quality. Nishioka has all the right weapons to just outplay Martinez and I think that he'll be ready for this challenge. He looked really ambitious against Pella, wanted to win but things didn't go his way. Martinez should be an easier task.
Good luck to everyone guys!

Can someone please explain why the odds on Burnley are so juicy. I`m not saying this just because they beat Liverpool - they`ve shown incredible team spirit  and have been rock solid at the back this season. They are a hardworking, physical team. They lack creativity but are SO difficult to break. Oh yes, I must mention goalkeeper Nick Pope who has been in tremendous form recently. I have 4,00 on Burnley at my local bookie which I find a value. I also like the option that Villa won`t score twice @1,75. That`s definitely too much if you ask me. 

Katarina Zavatska (2-0) to beat Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva at 1.85 with William Hill
Andrezieux-Boutheon ITF
Kasintseva is a 15 years old player who won the 2020 AO Girls' Singles. She has won against Lu Jia-Jing (7-6, 6-4) in her 1st round here but IMO she's still too young to beat Zavatska. The ukranian player has won easily against Gatto-Monticone (6-4, 6-1) in her first round here. I like the fact that Zavatska won easily in the qualy of the AO against Clara Tauson (6-3, 6-3), the player who won the 2019 AO Girls' Single. Tauson is 3 years older than Kasintseva and she's currently so much better player than her. She even has won the Fujairah ITF 2021, beating players like Gasanova or Golubic in the Final. I watched her and the current level of Tauson is really high.

Brighton vs Fulham
It's great to see everyone contributing and covering so many different games from these midweek fixtures. Some great tips being posted so far so let's hope the results fall in our favour tonight as the second of three nights of top flight action take place. I'm going to cover the relegation battle between Brighton and Fulham that's set to kick-off at 7:30pm GMT on Wednesday night from the Amex Stadium.
Brighton will come into this game boosted by a huge 1-0 win away to an erratic Leeds in their last league game. Graham Potter's side picked up their first league win after a winless run of 9 matches. The 3 points picked up in that victory has moved the club 5 points clear of the relegation zone and that gap will be extended with a win here against 18th placed Fulham. The Seagulls are still yet to win a league game at home this season though with it now being 13 league matches at home since they last tasted victory. A win here would only be the second time under Potter's management that Brighton will have won back-to-back league games. To add to the pessimism, Brighton have never won a Premier League game on a Wednesday having drawn 5 and lost 5.
Fulham had looked to be turning a corner as they ground out draws against superior opposition but Scott Parker's side failed to pick up a win in any of those matches. The Cottagers are down in 18th place still and 5 points adrift of safety. It's also now 8 league games without a win and the 3-0 loss at home to Burnley in the FA Cup 4th Round has seen more defeat thrown at them. That has extended their losing run in all competitions to three matches. Defence remains a problem for Parker with only West Brom and Sheffield United keeping fewer clean sheets than the London club this season.
Is this the game where experience at this level really tells? This is a huge match for both of these teams. We could either see Brighton pull away from the relegation zone and inflict a psychological blow to their opponents or we could see Fulham claw their way back out of trouble. Or the teams could nullify each other in a totally uninspiring affair. I've praised Brighton a lot this season and feel a good run of results is always just around the corner. I know a lot of pundits and tipsters are torn between the home win and draw. I think Brighton's home form is the sticking point for me so I'm going to go for a draw.
Draw @ 3.50 with RedZone
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.74 with SBK

Bayer Leverkusen vs Fortuna Dusseldorf
The Bundesliga game that's drawing my attention is one that seems like a foregone conclusion but could still offer some value with the right bets. European qualification chasing Bayer Leverkusen face bottom-placed Fortuna Dusseldorf in a 5pm GMT kick-off on Sunday afternoon from the BayArena. Will the outcome go the way the bookies, ELO ratings, and statistics suggest?
Bayer Leverkusen are up amongst the leading pack under manager Peter Bosz. The club are currently positioned inside the Europa League qualification spots in 6th place and they're only 5 points off the pace of the Champions League qualification berths. Back-to-back wins in the league on the road were the perfect response to two consecutive defeats in the league. Their last game at home saw them lose 1-0 to Hertha Berlin in a disappointing results but before that they'd only lost 1 of their previous 7 home league matches.
Fortuna Dusseldorf appear to be heading back down to Bundesliga II with the team sat bottom of the German top flight. Head coach Freidhelm Funkel's men are only 3 points off safety but that gap can seem like a million miles when your form isn't very good. Just 1 win in their last 8 league games including losing 4 of their last 5 league games has contributed to their drop to the foot of the table. The fact they haven't won on the road in the league since the opening day of the season is also a big concern coming into this match.
I have to back all the signs that are pointing towards a solid home win here. It's not quite at that stage of the season where teams down the bottom start realising the severity of their situation and spring surprise results. Bayer Leverkusen will have their eyes on that elusive 4th place in the table with a win taking them within touching distance of it. Fortuna Dusseldorf could potentially move out of the bottom three with a victory but I don't think they'll get it.
Bayer Leverkusen -1 @ 2.29 with SportNation
Bayer Leverkusen HT/FT @ 2.05 with Coral
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Bayern - Schalke    total goals  2-3
Usually I don`t like these kind of bets but I think this is the most probable outcome of this match. Schalke were underachieving in the previous seasons and something has changed this season - especially defensive wise. Their back line looks really solid and my impression is that they hevae finally become the team. I don`t want to talk about Bayern much because you know the whole story. All I can say is that don`t expect an easy match for them and that the odds are WAY TO LOW on Bayern win. I wouldn`t like to pick the winner of the match but I see it ending in something like 2-0, 2-1 or 1-1.

Freiburg - Paderborn        1
Freiburg are a team that is usually closer to the bottom than to the top half of the standings but this year circumstances have been a bit different. They`re currently holding the 7th position which gives them hope they can qualify for European competition(s) - after all, they`re only 6 points behind Gladbach that is 4th and being 4th means you`ve qualified for Champions League ! Freiburg have been more than solid throughout of the season - especially at home having lost to Koln and Bayern only. They managed to draw with Dortmund and beat teams like Leipzig or Frankfurt. A very successful campaign so far.
Paderborn are a different story I`m afraid. Of course they won`t give up but I think they won`t be enough for them to stay up. They didn`t want to change their offensive approach which was their trademark in 2 Bundesliga and hats off to that, but  Bundesliga teams are a few steps above those who play in 2 Bundesliga and Paderborn are paying the price. Their defence is leaking and have difficulties dealing with Bundesliga forwards and I expect something similar to happen today.
I have to admit I expected a lower price on Freiburg and that scares me a bit (bookies know everything!!) but I simply can`t see Freiburg not winning this one.

Gauff/Mcnally to beat Shibahara/Aoyama at 1.64 with Marathonbet
I repeat with Gauff/Mcnally. The first time these Japanese players played together was 6 months before in San Jose where they reached the Final and lost it against Melichar/Peschke in straight sets. After that they have played 7 more tournaments together with some good results (they won the Kremlin Cup and the Tianjin Open and reached the Semifinals in the China Open where they beat Mladenovic/Babos in straight sets). In this 2020 they lost in Brisbane in the first round against Melichar/Yifan (6-2, 6-4) and in the second round in Adelaide against Kenin/Mattek-Sands (7-6, 7-6). Here in the AO the have win against Van Uytvanck/Minnen (7-5, 7-6) in the first round and passed directly in the third round (WO). I’m not going to talk again of Gauff/Mcnally. Just say they have win in in straight sets against Peschke/Schuurs (6-3, 6-4). 
Milos Raonic to beat Marin Cilic at 1.57 with 888
Raonic has win his 3 matches here without dropping a single set. Tsitsipas was outclassed by Raonic. The Canadian had 6 BP (converting 2 of them) and conceded 0. Cilic has been my nightmare in this AO. The only 2 matches he has played well were the ones I did bet against him. Anyway, he almost lost against Paire and played another 5 set match against Bautista. Raonic serve hasn’t been broke in 3 matches so I don’t expect Cilic to have so many BP. 
Roger Federer vs Marton Fucsovics Over 34.5 Games at 1.82 with 888
Fucsovics is playing really well and I think he will trouble Federer more than the odds suggest. 
Ons Jabeur to beat Qiang Wang at 2.75 with bet365
Jabeur has given to me some money in this AO. I took her against Konta and Garcia but I had no balls to repeat with her against Woz… Bad deal. Now she plays against the player who has caused the bigger upset of this tournament. Just 3 weeks ago Jabeur was destroyed by Wang (6-3, 6-0) in Shenzhen. Despite that loss I think Jabeur is heavily underrated. She’s not as consistent as Wang but she’s more talented and has more variety than her. After that match in Shenzhen she did very well in Hobart winning 3 matches and losing finally against Muguruza in a 3 set match (including a close TB in the final one). She has win here against Konta, Garcia and Wozniacki so to me all the value is on Jabeur.
 

Wasn't impressed by him at all against Seppi and Moutet. Too many cheap mistakes and he's struggled heavily against Isner in the past. That said, Isner was crap against Humbert when I last saw him.

I watched him yesterday vs Lajovic. Even the commentators said that playing vs Schwatrzman is like playing against a brick wall.??? He`s defensively one of of the best players on the tour together with Djokovic. These odds are certainly inviting and definitely worth a risk.

Also thinking about Diego stealing a set off Djokovic, the odds are certainly juicy and, even though he doesn't have any big weapons, he'll be there as he was against Rafa in 2018. Hasn't even dropped a set yet, which is sort of incredible given that he doesn't have a serve to fall back on, while Djokovic has. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but yeah, I'm going to go for it at 2.89 with Pinnacle. Diego just sort of has this habit of not falling apart and he can run all day long, while his groundstrokes are as good as they are when it comes to the big guys. Having no serve means that he just can't be among the top guys, but he's not Nishioka-like if you want to make comparisons, he's much hardier and mentally apt. He took a set of Medvedev in the ATP Cup, so I am going to have a sporting play based on the odds alone.

Monfils - Gulbis  1
I simply can not ignore Monfils here. He`s like a box of chocolates...You never know what you`re going to get. He is also a player who is always a joy to watch, one of the players I would always pay for the ticket just to see him in action. Tennis avant-garde. He`s definitely past his prime  but I`ve always thought that he deserved a bit more in his career - especially on Grand Slam tournaments. Gulbis has risen from the dead here but I doubt he can take something out of this match. Last year he had 8-30 (?!) record. When Gulbis was younger everbody was talking (including Niki Pilic) that there is a great career ahead of him  but it simply didn`t happen. I don`t want to call Ernests a spoiled brat but he threw his talent away. By the way, the record between these two is 3-0 in Mofils` favour.
So...We have a guy who deserves a lot more on the Grand Slam level and a guy who doesn`t deserve anything. Monfils all the way for me.
Mertens - C.C. Bellis  over 20,5
Those who follow the tennis section here could`ve read what I said about Bellis. I`ve read what you guys wrote about the match and I can not but to agree with you though I think Mertens will have a bit more difficult task here. I watched Mertens in Wimbledon last year and was impressed with her ability to endure long rallies and powerful shots she is able to produce. Bellis`s style is different - shorter rallies, change of pace and not-so-powerful but precise and delicate shots. That`s why I think she`ll give Mertens a bit of a headache - at least in one the sets. I agree with you that Bellis`s chances to win this are not big simply because she hasn`t played for a long time on this level and that`s why I`ll also try the correct score: 2-1 Mertens.
Vekic - Swiatek     1
As I`ve said before, Donna is completely focused on tennis and will do her best to reach the final stages of AO. Reaching the 3rd round is her best result ever. I believe Swiatek is an ideal opponent for Donna and I have to say that the draw has been rather kind to her this year. She`s definitely aware of that and I think she won`t miss this chance to confirm herself as a player capable of performing well on the biggest of tournaments.
 
 

Gauff/Mcnally to beat Peschke/Schuurs at 1.88 with 888
I barely bet on doubles but I like the odds for this one. Gauff and Mcnally are good friends and very good doubles players. They always play together and despite their age they won in Washington (without dropping a single set) and Luxembourg. Peschke and Schuurs are playing together for the first time for this Australian season. They lost against Jurak/Rosolska (6-4, 6-3) in the first round in Brisbane and they retired in Adelaide in the second round after winning against Halep/Olaru (7-6, 4-6, 10-3). Gauff/Mcnally won against Arruaberrena/Voracova (6-1, 7-6) and Moore/Rodionova (6-3, 6-2) in Auckland. Schuurs is the most dangerous player but Peschke's age (44) and the fact they have never played together before are the reasons I think there is value on the young pair.
 

Simona Halep to beat Yulia Putintseva at 1.46 with Pinnacle
I guess I need to gain my confidence somewhere and this looks decent enough. Collins was having fitness issues before her match against Yulia and she was just outlasted by the feisty girl, but this should be a completely even footing matchup-wise with Halep being just better overall. The small blip against Dart is somewhat worrisome I guess, but she refocused quickly and got the job done, so, in the end, she should win this.

Changed my mind too Over 2.50 @1.97. Wolves are scoring most of the time at home and Liverpool, eventhough they didn't concede in last 7 premier league matches, still looks vulnerable at times. Combined with fact that Liverpool looked tired last 15 minutes in Devils game, I think goals are coming in from Wolves side. And if Liverpool is a little more efficient they can also easily score 2 goals. 1-2 or 2-2 most likely outcomes.