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Tennis Tips - January 25 - January 31


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So, we have two Challengers on offer this week, Antalya and Quimper. Next week should be way better, but that's what we have to do with for now. As a highlight, we'll see Pouille returning to the courts after a long absence. He's going to play against Horansky today in Quimper. Edit: Not today, the match has been moved to Wednesday.

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Paolo Lorenzi (+4.5 Games) to beat Daniel Altmaier at 1.83 with bet365

I'm not agree with these odds. Probably you will remember this player for his incredible run in RG 2020, where he beat Feliciano, Struff and Berrettini, all of them in straight sets... He finally lost against Carreño, also in straight sets. Well, since RG he has played 3 matches: Laaksonen (6-3, 3-6, 6-7), Gerasimov (1-6, 0-6) and Marchenko (4-6, 2-3). This will be his 1st match since October 2020, when he had to retire from his match against Marchenko due to his hip physical problems. I know Lorenzi's best days are gone, but at least he has been active and playing matches unlike the german player. 

The single victory is paid at 3.50 with bet365

Be careful, I base this bet mostly on Altmaier's lack of matches and his continued physical problems.

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Qumpier Challenger,January 27.
L.Pouille to beat F.Horansky @1.60 (local bookie Mozzartbet)

I know that Poullie haven't play a single match for long time,but i guess that he's injury-free and ready for the new season. Home conditions should suit him as well so i'm taking this price on him to win the match. 

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UTR Pro Mens Tennis Series Europe/ Barcelona
Genov to beat Roca Batalla @ 4,5 (PaddyPower) (I use the Betfair Exchange myself though)

 

I mostly post in-play tips for Betfair, but for now I have a pre-match one, so let's hope it won't turn out a complete disaster lol. The bet is based on two things. First on Genovs match against  Canas Garcia yesterday. He did pretty well and came close to even winning in the third set tiebreak. I know Roca Batalla is a big step up from Canas Garcia, but there comes the second reason. Roca Batalla, after winning the first set against Lobato lost that match and had a injury - i believe it was his back - at the end of that match. He couldn't move fully normally so I doubt he will be fully fit today. 

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Sure, Pouille playing in the 50% of his capacity is enough to destroy him. Horansky best surface is clay, by far... As I said, he has a negative record on this surface and the last time he won a match on this surface was in 2019 (Bratislava challenger). He never has been in the top 150 and the only time he has been in the main draw of an ATP event was 3 years ago (Lyon). I guess if Pouille plays this tournament is because he's in a decent form. Besides, he has won his doubles match... So, considering all I have said, how is Pouille priced at 1.60¿? I find it a little bit strange, but we'll see. I expect Pouille to win this "easily", though.

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It's not impossible. I have won all the bets I have posted here since I returned, 1 month ago. This one was a trap... I had my doubts, but I finally have been fooled by the bookies. You never can take a player that has been out of the courts that long. The last time he won a match was in 2019... Unfortunately for us, Pouille was in a worse shape than we thought and his opponent was the right one to make us think that this could be his first victory. Bad deal.

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57 minutes ago, darko08 said:

It's not impossible. I have won all the bets I have posted here since I returned, 1 month ago. This one was a trap... I had my doubts, but I finally have been fooled by the bookies. You never can take a player that has been out of the courts that long. The last time he won a match was in 2019... Unfortunately for us, Pouille was in a worse shape than we thought and his opponent was the right one to make us think that this could be his first victory. Bad deal.

 All depends on the player, take Del Potro for instance. The 4 times he came back from major injury, the next year he won his opening match (all ATP).

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Katarina Zavatska (2-0) to beat Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva at 1.85 with William Hill

Andrezieux-Boutheon ITF

Kasintseva is a 15 years old player who won the 2020 AO Girls' Singles. She has won against Lu Jia-Jing (7-6, 6-4) in her 1st round here but IMO she's still too young to beat Zavatska. The ukranian player has won easily against Gatto-Monticone (6-4, 6-1) in her first round here. I like the fact that Zavatska won easily in the qualy of the AO against Clara Tauson (6-3, 6-3), the player who won the 2019 AO Girls' Single. Tauson is 3 years older than Kasintseva and she's currently so much better player than her. She even has won the Fujairah ITF 2021, beating players like Gasanova or Golubic in the Final. I watched her and the current level of Tauson is really high.

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On 1/25/2021 at 2:23 PM, darko08 said:

Paolo Lorenzi (+4.5 Games) to beat Daniel Altmaier at 1.83 with bet365

I'm not agree with these odds. Probably you will remember this player for his incredible run in RG 2020, where he beat Feliciano, Struff and Berrettini, all of them in straight sets... He finally lost against Carreño, also in straight sets. Well, since RG he has played 3 matches: Laaksonen (6-3, 3-6, 6-7), Gerasimov (1-6, 0-6) and Marchenko (4-6, 2-3). This will be his 1st match since October 2020, when he had to retire from his match against Marchenko due to his hip physical problems. I know Lorenzi's best days are gone, but at least he has been active and playing matches unlike the german player. 

The single victory is paid at 3.50 with bet365

Be careful, I base this bet mostly on Altmaier's lack of matches and his continued physical problems.

6-4, 6-2. Easy victory for Lorenzi. As I said, there is never value on a player that has been out of the courts for a long time...No matter how juicy the odds are... This particular case was even more clear because Altmaier contracted Covid during the first week of January. I'm really happy with this one. A prove of how much profit you can make in tennis if you have the right info!

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Winning streaks never last, it's all about the general trend. I have a slight itch to go against Nakashima tomorrow, has anyone seen Lestienne this week?

I did not. I only have watched Nakashima. He looks good. I watched him against Gaio, he totally destroyed him, but that was expected.

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2 hours ago, darko08 said:

Thanks @CzechPunter! Unfortunately, my winning streak has ended today. Zavatska has dropped a set against the teenager (6-1, 3-6, 6-2). I should have posted the games handicap, not the 2-0...

I bet on Zavatska's victory! That was a good tip! Thanks for!

Edited by csori
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Illya Marchenko to beat Benjamin Bonzi at 1.83 with William Hill

Today I have watched Bonzi against Maden and I have to say that the match has been horrible...Especially the third set. None of them was capable of keep his services (6 consecutive breaks at the final 6 games of that set...!). I have seen Bonzi a little bit tired... The french player reached the Final in Istanbul the last week. In his first match here he played a long match against Huesler and today he has played another long match so I expect that Marchenko will be more fresh than him. Marchenko has won easily in 2 sets against Barrere in his last round here.

Edited by darko08
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Since the start of the second set I knew something was wrong. The way Marchenko has thrown the match in the 9th game of the final set with 3 DF has been simply pathetic. I'm going to rest for the next ATP/WTA events that are around the corner. As I said before, I never have been a fan of these Challengers...

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