Serie A & B Predictions > Mar 12th - 17th

[StevieDay1983]

[StevieDay1983]

Here are the odds and ratings for this weekend's Italian Serie A and B matches heading our way. It was a productive week for you all last round. @betcatalog and @StefanBB, you got decent profit from the Juventus win over Lazio. In fact, Stefan, you were just the one goal off that heroic correct score punt coming in. The Inter versus Atalanta game was as close as was expected so it's a shame the odd goal stopped that tip from coming in for Stefan but luckily, @ALEXXXXXXXX came in good with the backing of a home win! What bets are you all looking at this week? Let's look to continue this winning run!

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

Atalanta

They are sitting the fifth place in the table of the League, only three points ahead of Napoli. If they do not win over Spezia in the upcoming game, they will rank lower.

 

Spezia

As the newly-promoted this season, they are lack of League experience, getting 6W-8D-12L in 26 rounds. Besides, they are in poor state, which have been winless for four matches.

 

Verdict:

They draw with each other at 0-0 in last clash this season. Although Altalanta play better than Spezia, they have prepare for the UEFA Champions League next week. Perhaps it is a good chance for Spezia to take points from Atalanta in the upcoming game.

 

Atalanta VS Spezia

Prediction: draw

[malabgd]

Atalanta Bergamo vs Spezia Calcio

 

 

Atalanta Bergamo

Doubtful: Zapata (25/9 f, 2nd top scorer)

Out (injuries/other): Hateboer (17/2 d), Šutalo (7/0 d)

Suspended:

 

Spezia Calcio

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Provedel (22/0 first goalkeeper), Ramos (5/0 d), Mattiello (1/0 d), Saponara (5/0 m), Agoume (10/0 m)

Suspended:

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

 

Interesting facts based only on statistics

Atalanta Bergamo scored at least one goal in 85% of home games.

Atalanta Bergamo scored at least two goals in 62% of home games.

62% chance that both Atalanta Bergamo and Spezia Calcio will score in this game.

58% chance that both team will score and goal count will be over 2.5 goals.

92% chance that there will be more than 1 goal in this game.

81% chance that there will be more than 2 goals in this game.

47% chance that there will be more than 3 goals in this game.

23% chance that there will be more than 5 goals in this game.

31% chance that there will be a draw at half-time and Atalanta Bergamo will win a game.

[_Ghost_]

Here's my weekend tissue - Q is the quality of the match, basically the mean of the 2 sides ratings. As teams are rated between 0-1, the match quality will also be between 0-1, the higher the better.

[Mrsha]

Date	Home	Away	h%	d%	a%	jwb1%	RawG	aTG1m	HpC	ApC	TotC
13/03/2021	Sassuolo	Hellas Verona	43.3%	25.4%	31.3%	22.9%	2.64	2.65	5.85	5.68	11.53
13/03/2021	Benevento	Fiorentina	27.2%	28.8%	44.0%	25.0%	2.12	2.31	3.85	6.09	9.94
13/03/2021	Genoa	Udinese	27.7%	31.7%	40.6%	25.0%	1.84	2.13	3.63	4.81	8.45
14/03/2021	Bologna	Sampdoria	36.8%	24.7%	38.5%	20.9%	2.82	2.77	5.66	6.10	11.76
14/03/2021	Torino	Internazionale	9.2%	15.4%	75.4%	23.4%	3.14	2.98	3.31	6.18	9.49
14/03/2021	Parma	Roma	12.9%	17.6%	69.5%	23.9%	3.16	2.99	2.99	5.70	8.68
14/03/2021	Cagliari	Juventus	9.8%	17.6%	72.6%	25.4%	2.79	2.75	4.73	7.33	12.06
14/03/2021	Milan	Napoli	37.0%	23.6%	39.4%	20.6%	3.03	2.91	4.68	6.00	10.68
* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)   Sassuolo dnb @1.88 – hosts had superb last season and didn’t start this one badly either, but their form deteriorated in recent months, performances were really below par and injury situation didn’t help. It is better now, and we can expect this offensive side to pick up more points in remaining games, perhaps remind us what they looked like for most of last season. Verona are well organized side, always difficult to play against, but at current prices I’m happy to go against them. In case of low scoring first half, over1.25 at 1.95ish mark could be worth a shot – current db price for overs is not tempting, and huge market move b4 kick off is unlikely; but both these teams are basically safe from relegation (even though in theory they should still be careful) and we can expect gpg in their games to go up, this especially goes for Sassuolo (who on first sight have ‘high’ 3.2 gpg average this season, but just 14 of 25 games went over 2.5 line). Napoli dnb @2.02 in big evening game tomorrow, very important for both sides, who seem to be getting back on track  after recent slumps. Still, for Milan this game is sandwiched between big euro games vs ManU, it’s definitely distraction especially now after excellent result and overall display in first leg. Much more was expected from Napoli this season, they should’ve been fighting for title, but quite a few things went wrong, not only problems with injuries or some questionable coaching decisions, there was clearly some bad luck factor present as well – before this game Napoli are leading the league in shots on target differential, and are second in total shots differential, with only Atalanta better. They will be fresher of the two here, motivation is not in doubt, quality difference with full squads maybe on Milan’s side, but just maybe – and in current circumstances with Milan’s heavy schedule and more problems on injury front, it’s actually on Napoli’s side. Probaby some more comments later or tomorrow, cheers

[StefanBB]

Milan vs Napoli

Milan hasn’t lost hope to end this Serie A campaign as champions. They celebrated an important 2:0 victory away to Verona in the latest round. It came in the perfect moment after dropping two points in a draw against Udinese. Stefano Pioli’s side had a very tough challenge at Old Trafford last Thursday when they earned a 1:1 draw against Manchester United. Although they were trailing 1:0, Simon Kjaer’s stoppage-time goal can only boost the home side’s confidence. However, another tight match is ahead of the Rossoneri, and they need to search for a win to remain in the title race. Milan is six points behind Inter, who is in excellent form. The hosts haven’t been too confident at home lately, though. Milan celebrated just twice on the previous five occasions, and they need to be more stable at San Siro. The home side will have severe selection troubles, especially in the final third, as Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Mario Mandzukic, and Ante Rebic will be out of the protocol.

Napoli sits in 6^th place, and the team from southern Italy wants to get into the top four. Gennaro Gattuso’s side has been involved in very exciting games lately. The visitors are five points behind the fourth-placed Atalanta, but with two games in hand. Lorenzo Insigne and the lads put excellent performances at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. However, their real troubles come when playing on the road. Napoli managed to pick up only a point from the last four outings. They were very close to beating Sassuolo, but the game ended in a 3:3 draw. Napoli needs to improve their displays when playing away from home if they want to book a Champions League ticket

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

It is going to be a tight clash, and Napoli is not without a chance since Milan has injury troubles. Therefore, we think the visitors can get back home with at least a point from this clash.

Goals Market Prediction

Napoli has been involved in many efficient matches lately, and this one shouldn’t be much different. We should see goals in both nets as we don’t believe either of the sides will keep the clean sheet.

Napoli AH +0 @ 2.00

BTTS Yes @ 1.60

Correct score 1:2 @ 10.00

[betcatalog]

Milan have shown resilience and have impressed against Roma, Verona and Manchester United in recent games, despite missing key players. Although her impressive form at the beginning of the season has declined, she can still remain in the battle for the glory of the title with her first victory at the San Siro in a month. The less-impressive record away from Napoli is ready to continue this weekend, but due to the excellent selections of both clubs, having a lot of quality I will go with scoring more than two goals.
AC MILAN vs SSC NAPOLI @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.78

[_Ghost_]

Torino host Sassoulo this midweek and my numbers make Torino slight jollies. When I looked yesterday the market favoured the away side but this has corrected itself over the course of the day. There is a touch of value in the overs and BTTS Yes, and it's a couple of long-shot correct scores which satisfy both the aforementioned and favour the home side that look the position of maximum value.

0.25pt Torino to win 4-1 @ 45/1 (Betvictor)

0.25pt Torino to win 4-2  @ 90/1 (Betvictor)

[Mrsha]

Torino

Sassuolo

39.3%

23.2%

37.5%

20.3%

3.13

2.98

5.37

5.80

11.17

* short v of model numbers,  with % for h-d-a and jolly win by 1;  raw and adjusted TG number and corner kicks (h-a-tot)

Toro-Sassuolo over 2.75 @2.04 – agreed with previous post regarding btw and overs, this should be a fine game, with Torino hungry for points, Sassuolo relaxed and seemingly back on track after some bad run and injury problems, neither should be happy with a draw. Visitors could keep some of their big guns on bench ahead of Inter game, but in general you can expect some better performances and def higher number of goals in their games until the end of season. Torino are in red zone now, but certainly deserve a lot better fate, they had some v good performances before covid problems postponed a couple of games, if they get to that level safety should be reached without much problems, despite situation not looking so good at the moment. Nothing on hcap before lineups here, however goals should be on the menu regardless of coaching decisions, down to over 2.75 @1.97 seems ok, but wouldn’t expect price to move much during the day anyway.