richard-westwood

Personally the horse that stands out for me in the betting is ,,found ..the 10.0 on betfair looks huge at the moment .....found has collateral form with postponed and was beaten by him but this is a quicker track and will suit her much better ....also comes to hand this time of year and is out of Galileo which is perfect for the arc ......o brien will have her primed to perfection and females have a good record in the race ,...just looks vastly overpriced 
Found 10pts win 10.0 betfair 

Just had a quick look at the horses entered without going into it at much depth.......let's see who turns up !
Just a general thought though
The Arc is the top race in Europe........the Arc winner should be the top horse in Europe or in the top handful
So I don't like going for horses that get beat quite often. If they're in the top handful of European horses they should be winning the races that are just below the Arc !
For example Found keeps finishing 2nd.........if she was an Arc winner she should be winning some of those races
So my shortlist of horses who win a lot......Almanzor (last I heard wasn't an intended runner), Postponed, Harzand, Makahiki, Order of St George, Left Hand

415 Ayr bronze cup
Sir Billy Wright  98.88
Ballymore castle  98.86
Giant spark   98.83
Giant spark is a big improver and could run well but bookies taking no chances atv5/1 so no value in that as needs to improve again .ballymore castle looks the strongest of the fahey team so warrants respect as hes not here to make numbers up and 12/1 looks a decent price ...Sir Billy Wright is an interesting horse in this ....ran a stinker last time but needs 6f so forgiven that run ....now returns to optimum trip and has the services of decent claimer Clifford Lee ...the combination looks decent especially at 20/1!....
Sir Billy Wright 5 ptsew 20/1 lads
Ballymore castle 5 pts ew 12/1 bv
 

430 thirsk
Cruiseyothelimit   98.80
Trickydicky   98.78
Windforpower  98.77
Tricky 20 runner hcap ....hard to choose which one is most likely to give its good running but cruisetothelimit has been showing signs of a return to peak form and he's a good horse if he can find peak form now ....Tricky dicky has been running consistently well and should be in the shake up again but value lies with cruisetothelimit at 7/1 as opposed to 9/2....of the others windforpower is a dark horse ...has been running consistently ok until last time when had troubled run ....has been put in here at 40/1 and that's vastly overpriced in the bulk of his form so possible ew shot
Cruisetothelimit  4 Pts win 7/1 p.p
Windforpower 2 pts ew  40/1 bet365

4 selections on the all weather today.
3.10 Kempton – Dubai Dunes – Represents Godolphin and looks a likely type on debut. Vibes from gallops is positive.
4.15 Kempton – Musaanada – Haggas trained, expensive two year old that could be anything for this in form yard. Nothing much to fear from the rest of the field so a chance is taken on this beautifully bred filly.
5.25 Wolverhampton – Harbour Lighting – If taking to the all weather looks a big player in this.
6.55 Wolverhampton – Confident Kid – Trainer has a fine record at the track and the horse has the form to take this maiden.

Limato   99.41
Suedous  99.35
Limatos recent run against M eccas Angel reads very well and it was a very fast time in the process so should run a huge race if conditions remain on the good side....of the others ...suedois has collateral form withnlimato putting him with a couple of lengths and in these sprints anything can happen so at 12/1 he looks big value .....I'll take these two against the field in a classy race 
Limato 7 pts win 11/2 betfred 
Suedois 3 pts win 12/1 bet365 

As far as I believe its weight adjusted so debut was higher because it carried more Weight  that day so was allotted a higher rating so in this case 6lbs higher 

Ebor 
Top tug   99.01
Shrewd   98.98 
Antiquarian  98.93
Huge amount of value here in top two ....both have posted decent efforts recently ....Top tug especially looks nicely weighted in this and could run a big race ....Shrewd has a claimer on board but 7lb claim wil help if jockeys good enough and Clifford Lee is looking a fair claimer ....at 20/1 outstanding value in a wide open race ....
top tug   5pts ew 20/1 pp
Shrewd  5 Pts ew 20/1 pp

Rated this  
Caitlin Mohr   98.88
An saigdhur 98.84
Dream walker  98.81
Currently dream walker sets the standard after a narrow win lto but 7/1 in such an open race is a little cramped ....Caitlin Mor looks my idea of the winner ...has decent form recently when just behind dream walker before going on to place at listed level ....that's good form so the 14/1 with bet365 now he's scraped in off bottom weight is a bit silly ....of the others an saigdhur is progressive and might not be finished yet 20/1 is overpriced as well 
Cailin mor 5 pts win 14/1 bet365
An saigdhur 5 pts win 20/1 bet365 

Rated this  
Caitlin Mohr   98.88
An saigdhur 98.84
Dream walker  98.81
Currently dream walker sets the standard after a narrow win lto but 7/1 in such an open race is a little cramped ....Caitlin Mor looks my idea of the winner ...has decent form recently when just behind dream walker before going on to place at listed level ....that's good form so the 14/1 with bet365 now he's scraped in off bottom weight is a bit silly ....of the others an saigdhur is progressive and might not be finished yet 20/1 is overpriced as well 
Cailin mor 5 pts win 14/1 bet365
An saigdhur 5 pts win 20/1 bet365 

Tote Scoop6
No winner last week as everyone was knocked out after 3 legs.
Win Fund starts at £213,628 and the Bonus Fund stands at £62,371.
Last weeks place fund paid out £82.60 and there was 264 winners.
 
This weeks action;

 
Selections:
Leg 1: Chancery 12/1 Skybet (Scarlet Dragon)
Just a 19 runner handicap to start the ball rolling and plenty in with a chance. I like Chancery now he has dropped back down the handicap and the O'Meara yard is in better form. The likely favourite will be Scarlet Dragon who followed up a victory at Newbury with a fine 4th at Goodwood last time out. Yard is flying at the moment and looks sure to be involved.
Leg 2: Scottish 4/1 William Hill (Custom Cut)
Group 3 action over 9f and the Godolphin runner Scottish will be hard to beat. He has improved since joining Charlie Appleby and ran well at haydock last time out in similar company. David O'Meara has won this for the last 2 years and he saddles Custom Cut who has yet to show the form he was in last year.
Leg 3: Shraaoh 7/2 Skybet (Regal Monarch)
The Melrose handicap over the Ebor trip of 14f and the Sir Michael Stoute trained Shraaoh is the warm favourite. Ridden by Frankie Vettori he will have a lot of support and will be out to gain compensation for a narrow defeat at Goodwood recently. I prefer Regal Monarch out of the two Mark Johnston runners and Aidan O'Briens pair should also be on the shortlist in a wide open affair.
Leg 4: South Seas 5/2 Bet365 (Total Star)
The Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown is our next race over 7f and we have a dozen useful looking colts lining up. The favourite is South Seas trained by Andrew Balding, he has won his two starts at Windsor and Haydock. Eight of these won last time out and have bags of potential including Total Star who looks one for the shortlist.
Leg 5: Oasis Fantasy 7/1 Paddy Power (Revolutionist)
Both Fire Fighting and Oasis Fantasy line up again after their terrific tussle last time out. Ed Dunlops charge is better off at the weights on this occasion and should reverse that form now. The Mark Johnston second string Revolutionist shouldn't be ignored and looks value at a big price while Hugo Palmer's Bandar is chasing a hat-trick and is clearly improving fast.
Leg 6: Top Tug 20/1 BetVictor (Antiquarium)
The Ebor Handicap with 20 runners lining up for the 1m6f trip. A decent renewal led by the Godolphin runner Antiquarium who won the Northumberland Plate last time out at Newcastle. This is a different test but the horse is obviously in good heart and should go close off his revised mark. Alan Kings horses are in good form and he runs Top Tug, he moves up to this trip for the first time and could be dangerous of those towards the bottom off the handicap. He has good course form as well and looks a big price.
 

1st and 3rd ...wrong way round but who cares ...10/1 

Off and running ...boom

Nice one Richard. Some late money and a nice place.

Cork 555
Tithonus   98.79
Count of carabass 98.79
Interesting race ....huge support for the fav tithonus here at 7/4 but interesting runner in count of carabass who has same rating but looks poor on paper ....was 6th last time but average of 5  horses that beat him was 64 and he has been dropped to 47!,...as a result....odds 14/1....seems good value to me 
Count of carabass 3pts ew 14/1 generally 

625 cork
Clear focus   98.75
Enter the red   98.73 
These two have been running well lately and should handle conditions well ......lots of value in clear focus at 14/1 as he wascrunning well at 6f last time before fading at the 7f so return to 6f should be perfect ....il try ew doubles with above racevtoo
Clear focus 5 pts win 14/1 lads
Enter the red 5 pts win 11/2 lads 2 x
2 x 2pt ew doubles with 555 cork 

Cork 555
Tithonus   98.79
Count of carabass 98.79
Interesting race ....huge support for the fav tithonus here at 7/4 but interesting runner in count of carabass who has same rating but looks poor on paper ....was 6th last time but average of 5  horses that beat him was 64 and he has been dropped to 47!,...as a result....odds 14/1....seems good value to me 
Count of carabass 3pts ew 14/1 generally 

Just went to back Enter The Red, obviously a mistake on Betway's website because they had it priced at 151/2 rather than 11/2!! They let me have place a max of £5 ew, took the bet and then voided my bet haha 

Well done BH great shout. 

The Gurkha 
 
 

Well the one i wanted couldnt win but at least clawed a decrnt bit back on kimbrella ....fight another day 

Time for a good old fashioned gamble .....ante post bets gone down the pan ...always the risk ....55 pts returned today so il keep my stake money and try a double up with the profits for a big payout 
Gigaset international  
Mutawathea    99.28
Withersea  99,21
Suzie conniseur  99.19
At this stage it looks an easy choice to double up .....I was looking for a horse that got good form at the distance ..,speed ....and is nicely weighted ....muthawathea ticks all three .....I'm going to have to take a chance on the draw ....ideally I'd want a rail draw either side but at 14/1 bet365 are being very very generous so I'll risk 20 pts ew and go for a jackpot payout ....c'mon me beauty ..boooom
Muthawathea 20 pts ew 14/1 bet365

Time for a good old fashioned gamble .....ante post bets gone down the pan ...always the risk ....55 pts returned today so il keep my stake money and try a double up with the profits for a big payout 
Gigaset international  
Mutawathea    99.28
Withersea  99,21
Suzie conniseur  99.19
At this stage it looks an easy choice to double up .....I was looking for a horse that got good form at the distance ..,speed ....and is nicely weighted ....muthawathea ticks all three .....I'm going to have to take a chance on the draw ....ideally I'd want a rail draw either side but at 14/1 bet365 are being very very generous so I'll risk 20 pts ew and go for a jackpot payout ....c'mon me beauty ..boooom
Muthawathea 20 pts ew 14/1 bet365

Nice one Billy ...well done ...

Three bells wins ...nice price 55 pts returned