richard-westwood

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Weather permitting the ITV cameras are at Cheltenham on Friday for four races plus they’re showing a race from Bangor-On-Dee where the best bet comes from. I must admit it’s looking odds on in my opinion that we will lose both fixtures with a sharp frost forecast at both tracks even though Cheltenham are deploying their fleece covers to cover the course. A early morning inspection has been called at both. It maybe a waste of my time but here are my thoughts anyway on the five ITV races.   1.30 Bangor-On-Dee The ITV cameras take in this three mile class 3 handicap chase from Bangor and with eight going to post there appears to be a decent bet here. Anyone that saw David Pipe’s Only The Bold jump his field silly over course and distance on similar ground a fortnight ago will want to be with this progressive looking seven year old who has been risen 10lb for that win. 3lb conditional jockey Fergus Gillard was on board that day and he had the race won some way from home coasting home 9L clear of his field which could easily have been doubled. As long as he’s come out of that race well he will be very hard to beat. Four of his seven rivals are returning from a long absence and the biggest danger to the favourite may well be the in form Venetia Williams trained top weight Fuji Flight under Lucy Turner. Only The Bold is a confident selection.   ONLY THE BOLD 4 points win @ 13/8 BetVictor   1.50 Cheltenham Ten mares go to post for this 2m 4F 127 yard class 3 handicap chase which has a very open look about it. Current favourite is Amy Murphy’s Hawthorn Cottage who made all and hacked up at Warwick on her re-appearance last month beating her four rivals by 30L and more. She’s been pushed up 7lb for that win although her jockey here Niall Houlihan takes off a valuable 3lb. This is a much tougher assignment mind but she should be competitive. Tom Symonds’s Marta Des Mottes followed up a very easy Southwell win with a good 4 1/2L second at Chepstow and is very much a player. Also on the shortlist has to be Ben Case’s Gazette Bourgeoise who showed distinct promise on her fencing debut at Uttoxeter last month despite some novicey jumps and should improve plenty for that. It’s a tough race where stakes should be kept small but I just favour Marta Des Mottes.   MARTA DES MOTTES 1 point each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   2.25 Cheltenham A decent class 1 premier handicap chase over 3m 2F is up next and has attracted a field of nine. Last year’s race was blown away by Venetia William’s Commodore who forced the pace and came home a 15L winner. He wasn’t seen again till running in the Grand National and was always towards the rear completing in 12th place beaten some 120L. First time out is obviously the time to get him and although he’s 9lb higher than last year his trainer is in scintillating form and looks the one to be with here. There’s a definite trip doubt about Gary Moore’s Nassalam whilst cases can be made for the likes of Switch Hitter (first run this season) and Captain Cattistock (2 from 3 at track). If Commodore can get into a rhythm up front he may be able to replicate last’s years victory especially with his trainer in such stunning form.   COMMODORE 2 points win @ 9/2 BetVictor   3.00 Cheltenham A class 3 handicap hurdle run over 2m 179 yards with eleven going to the start is next up. Trainer Milton Harris has had a torrid few weeks been housed up in a Thai hospital following a bout of illness whilst on holiday there but his yard has been kept on the go by his able deputy Steve Charlton and remains in good form. His five year old mare Mullenberg appears to be a step ahead of the handicapper and could easily make it four wins on the bounce following victories at Plumpton, Fakenham and Ludlow rising a stone in the weights. She looks the one they have to beat here. Last year’s winner Lively Citizen appears to save his best for this track with form figures of 121P0 and after two runs this season looks ready to run a big race under his optimum conditions for trainer DJ Jeffreys. Jonjo O’Neill’s Anyharminasking is the only horse to have ever beaten the freak wonder horse Constitution Hill (all be it in an Irish point to point) and was an eye catcher at Huntingdon earlier in the week. He can be competitive along with Fergal O’Brien’s Punctuation who’s also chasing a four timer but has been pulled out twice this season due to drying ground and he might prefer softer conditions than these. Jonathan Burke takes the reigns on Mullenberg and that’ll do for me.   MULLENBERG 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill   3.35 Cheltenham Another handicap to finish the days ITV offerings, this time a ten runner three mile handicap hurdle where the weights are headed by a smart novice chaser from last season of Nicky Henderson’s in Dusart. He was a progressive chaser last season ending up winning at Ayr over three miles and has had a wind operation since we last saw him. Rated 5lb lower over hurdles than fences he could simply blow these away but with 12 stone to carry and a 251 day absence I’ll look elsewhere for some each way value. The one that sticks out to me is the JP McManus owned, Jonjo O’Neill trained Flight Deck. It was quite a warm three mile handicap he ran second in at Carlisle 12 days ago when runner up to Storm Nelson and can race off of the same mark here despite going up 2lb which comes into effect at the weekend. He stays well is in good form and at an each way price can be backed each way. Chris Gordon’s Annual Invictus is two from two at the track and is another to come into the reckoning.   FLIGHT DECK 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 123  

225 chelt 
Captain cattistock  8.8 6/1
Spirit of games    8.6 15/2 
Undersupervision    8.2 13/2 
Eva's oskar    7.9 
Tricky race ....lots in with chances....spiritofgames is course specialist although can never seem to win he always seems to get in money and off a mark of 134 he's relatively well treated so ew bet for certain ....of the others captain cattistock also looks an ew bet so I'll go 5pt ew top 2 

Wins ...+14.00

Wins ...+14.00

Wins ...+14.00

Wins ...+14.00

Wins ...+14.00

Wins ...+14.00

KEMPTON 5.30
PERDIKA
Gets my vote to land the four timer on handicap debut.
Form franked by abbey's dream in the previous race who set a mild pace but otherwise had every chance.
Very light treated on ratings and races off lower weight than in previous runs in stakes races.
Going to go off a better price than expected as well.
 

Best of luck with that, I guess anything may happen as flagged up by @richard-westwood

I do get quite a,few races like this but not quite so bad as this one lol ?....and I just scrub them and look elsewhere .....just no point betting for the sake of it in a bad race imo ....even if sometimes  I really fancy a bet unless there's a definate edge in the numbers in yiur favour then your blindly rolling the dice ?...fastest route to the poorhouse ?

I do get quite a,few races like this but not quite so bad as this one lol ?....and I just scrub them and look elsewhere .....just no point betting for the sake of it in a bad race imo ....even if sometimes  I really fancy a bet unless there's a definate edge in the numbers in yiur favour then your blindly rolling the dice ?...fastest route to the poorhouse ?

I am changing tactics.  I will view with suspicion any selection of Spotlight and Timeform + ATR from now on, especially when the RP and Timeform club together to recommend a selection.  Further, I will most likely choose a selection where the markets go for one and the RP and ATR slag them off
1150 Lin La Rav 13/2
1.25 Lin Total Commitment 4/1 (1pt win at 5.1)
1 x 1 pt ew double = poss return of 41.64
Singles and savers
11.50 Granary Queen @The Brigadier's selection despite RP & TF 1 pt win 4.2
1.25 Lin Emperor Spirit 1 pt win at 3.5
= 5 pts stakes
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Granary Queen left with too much to do again; perhaps they should change the jockey nets time.
I'll have another 1 pt on Total Commitment in the 1.25 at 5.1 = 6 pts now staked
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Sod's law Grrrr.  RP/SL and TF selection beats my horse by a head
I'll try a 1 pt win on @Zilzalianselection Master Of Chant at 8 and an insurance bet of 1 pt on @richard-westwoodselection Perdika at 2.30
Also will place 1 pt ew on Rainbow Dreamer in the 8.00 at Kempton at 10/1.  This is @The Brigadier's selection for the race.  May as well back an outsider if all the horses are so closely rated ?
= 10 points staked today
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I think I was a little unlucky with Total Commitment being beaten a head by would you believe the RP & Timeform selection on a day when I announced that I would be viewing these and the Big 3 selections with scepticism.  Tyger Bay drifted from 3/1 to 15/2 but won anyway.  Good luck to his backers they thoroughly deserve their winnings.  Just one insurance winner (should have done a forecast; isn't hindsight wonderful; great run from Master OF Chant) and a place winner. needed Tom Marquand on Rainbow Dreamer, haha. All this created a loss of -4.71 = MTD loss of -20.80 & YTD of -284.12
Inspections at Newcastle and Warwick later plus this cold snap could decimate a lot of racing so I'll wait and see what's on offer before doing any work on it all
 
 

Many thanks.  It is just as valuable to know that all are so close that you don't recommend a bet.  Good luck with your other bet later.

Sorry to disappoint but race is like ...wow .....9 horses within .2 of each other ....like the most open race I've ever rated ....an absolute...no no for me ...lol ....I can't even highlite an ew bet ....its just too close 

Yes ....I'll run it through ....just give me like half hour lol 

2 gg's today master of chant 530Kemp notebook horse better than its last race
Omega 335 leic potentially a very good import from germany where it was trained by peter shiergan now with milton harris great price at  25/1 

530 kemp 
Perdika   8.4 2.46 
Low price this one but next horse is 7.6 so top rated is waayy in front so I'll be interested to see how this pans out ....I'll try 10pt win on betfair 

530 kemp 
Perdika   8.4 2.46 
Low price this one but next horse is 7.6 so top rated is waayy in front so I'll be interested to see how this pans out ....I'll try 10pt win on betfair 

530 kemp 
Perdika   8.4 2.46 
Low price this one but next horse is 7.6 so top rated is waayy in front so I'll be interested to see how this pans out ....I'll try 10pt win on betfair 

530 kemp 
Perdika   8.4 2.46 
Low price this one but next horse is 7.6 so top rated is waayy in front so I'll be interested to see how this pans out ....I'll try 10pt win on betfair 

Hipop Des Ongrias wins at 3/1, Alligator Alley wins at 6/4, 2 losers and a NR for a profit of 1.50 points
Total 31 from 162, LSP 4.82 POINTS

1st 3rd 4th ...??