Racing Chat - Wednesday 7th December

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

Lucky 15 with BET365

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Hexham	0.30	New Zealander	25/1
Dundalk	1.30	Chimeric	33/1
Lingfield	2.00	Marion's Boy	11/2
Hexham	2.50	Chemical Warfare	5/1

[kensland]

Leicester. 

Single. 

3.35. Oxygen     7/2        unpl

Good luck all. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by kensland

[Sporting Sam]

Lingfield 1250

SHE'S A MIRAGE

each way

First run for David Evans today.

Directly weighted under the favourite and drawn alongside that runner too.

So if the odds on favourite does not go through with his winning effort due to the penalty she's a mirage is potentially in the prime position to benefit. Trainer certainly knows how to exploit that aspect of physics.

The form is also interesting as this runner drawn in stall 6, although still a maiden has never run in this class before.

* Travelling companion Dr Mozart is now a non runner, so this is yard's only runner.

Placed just once, but that once was third at Bath to Lezoo. 

Also raced against remarkable force and Dramatised so has always kept good company.

Has all the hallmarks of a David Evans plot horse and if not today it won't be long before this one is winning. On final run Hannon took care to introduce this one on the all weather and the jockey duly took the scenic route around the chelmsford track getting a good run into the horse without raising any eyebrows.

Edited December 7, 2022 by sporting sam

[azzybear]

ower starlight 11.20 

[azzybear]

lough carra 12.10

[azzybear]

granary queen 11.50 

[richard-westwood]

530 kemp 

Perdika   8.4 2.46 

Low price this one but next horse is 7.6 so top rated is waayy in front so I'll be interested to see how this pans out ....I'll try 10pt win on betfair 

[The Equaliser]

I am changing tactics.  I will view with suspicion any selection of Spotlight and Timeform + ATR from now on, especially when the RP and Timeform club together to recommend a selection.  Further, I will most likely choose a selection where the markets go for one and the RP and ATR slag them off

1150 Lin La Rav 13/2

1.25 Lin Total Commitment 4/1 (1pt win at 5.1)

1 x 1 pt ew double = poss return of 41.64

Singles and savers

11.50 Granary Queen @The Brigadier's selection despite RP & TF 1 pt win 4.2

1.25 Lin Emperor Spirit 1 pt win at 3.5

= 5 pts stakes

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Granary Queen left with too much to do again; perhaps they should change the jockey nets time.

I'll have another 1 pt on Total Commitment in the 1.25 at 5.1 = 6 pts now staked

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sod's law Grrrr.  RP/SL and TF selection beats my horse by a head

I'll try a 1 pt win on @Zilzalianselection Master Of Chant at 8 and an insurance bet of 1 pt on @richard-westwoodselection Perdika at 2.30

Also will place 1 pt ew on Rainbow Dreamer in the 8.00 at Kempton at 10/1.  This is @The Brigadier's selection for the race.  May as well back an outsider if all the horses are so closely rated ?

= 10 points staked today

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think I was a little unlucky with Total Commitment being beaten a head by would you believe the RP & Timeform selection on a day when I announced that I would be viewing these and the Big 3 selections with scepticism.  Tyger Bay drifted from 3/1 to 15/2 but won anyway.  Good luck to his backers they thoroughly deserve their winnings.  Just one insurance winner (should have done a forecast; isn't hindsight wonderful; great run from Master OF Chant) and a place winner. needed Tom Marquand on Rainbow Dreamer, haha. All this created a loss of -4.71 = MTD loss of -20.80 & YTD of -284.12

Inspections at Newcastle and Warwick later plus this cold snap could decimate a lot of racing so I'll wait and see what's on offer before doing any work on it all

 

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[fd1972uk]

Late bet on granary queen lin

[The Equaliser]

38 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

530 kemp 

Perdika   8.4 2.46 

Low price this one but next horse is 7.6 so top rated is waayy in front so I'll be interested to see how this pans out ....I'll try 10pt win on betfair 

Good luck with that one.  I seem to

remember someone saying never follow 2 year old form into handicap company.  However, sometimes it is good to follow a horse until it stops winning.

Is there any chance of you doing ratings for the 8.00 at Kempton tonight? 

Edited December 7, 2022 by The Equaliser

[Zilzalian]

2 gg's today master of chant 530Kemp notebook horse better than its last race

Omega 335 leic potentially a very good import from germany where it was trained by peter shiergan now with milton harris great price at  25/1 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Zilzalian

[richard-westwood]

19 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Good luck with that one.  I seem to

remember someone saying never follow 2 year old form into handicap company.  However, sometimes it is good to follow a horse until it stops winning.

Is there any chance of you doing ratings for the 8.00 at Kempton tonight? 

Yes ....I'll run it through ....just give me like half hour lol 

[richard-westwood]

39 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Good luck with that one.  I seem to

remember someone saying never follow 2 year old form into handicap company.  However, sometimes it is good to follow a horse until it stops winning.

Is there any chance of you doing ratings for the 8.00 at Kempton tonight? 

Sorry to disappoint but race is like ...wow .....9 horses within .2 of each other ....like the most open race I've ever rated ....an absolute...no no for me ...lol ....I can't even highlite an ew bet ....its just too close 

Edited December 7, 2022 by richard-westwood

[The Equaliser]

7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Sorry to disappoint but race is like ...wow .....9 horses within .2 of each other ....like the most open race I've ever rated ....an absolute...no no for me ...lol ....I can't even highlite an ew bet ....its just too close 

Many thanks.  It is just as valuable to know that all are so close that you don't recommend a bet.  Good luck with your other bet later.

[richard-westwood]

12 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks.  It is just as valuable to know that all are so close that you don't recommend a bet.  Good luck with your other bet later.

I do get quite a,few races like this but not quite so bad as this one lol ?....and I just scrub them and look elsewhere .....just no point betting for the sake of it in a bad race imo ....even if sometimes  I really fancy a bet unless there's a definate edge in the numbers in yiur favour then your blindly rolling the dice ?...fastest route to the poorhouse ?

[fd1972uk]

310 lin motatabeeq

445 dun cyclamen

Kem dbl

1730 pedrika

1930 gurkha girl

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I am changing tactics.  I will view with suspicion any selection of Spotlight and Timeform + ATR from now on, especially when the RP and Timeform club together to recommend a selection.  Further, I will most likely choose a selection where the markets go for one and the RP and ATR slag them off

1150 Lin La Rav 13/2

1.25 Lin Total Commitment 4/1 (1pt win at 5.1)

1 x 1 pt ew double = poss return of 41.64

Singles and savers

11.50 Granary Queen @The Brigadier's selection despite RP & TF 1 pt win 4.2

1.25 Lin Emperor Spirit 1 pt win at 3.5

= 5 pts stakes

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Granary Queen left with too much to do again; perhaps they should change the jockey nets time.

I'll have another 1 pt on Total Commitment in the 1.25 at 5.1 = 6 pts now staked

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sod's law Grrrr.  RP/SL and TF selection beats my horse by a head

I'll try a 1 pt win on @Zilzalianselection Master Of Chant at 8 and an insurance bet of 1 pt on @richard-westwoodselection Perdika at 2.30

Also will place 1 pt ew on Rainbow Dreamer in the 8.00 at Kempton at 10/1.  This is @The Brigadier's selection for the race.  May as well back an outsider if all the horses are so closely rated ?

= 10 points staked today

going tc on the 8.00 rainbow dreamer (doesn't win in big fields) with the 2 charlton gg's.

[The Equaliser]

25 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

going tc on the 8.00 rainbow dreamer (doesn't win in big fields) with the 2 charlton gg's.

Best of luck with that, I guess anything may happen as flagged up by @richard-westwood

[Bang on]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks.  It is just as valuable to know that all are so close that you don't recommend a bet.  Good luck with your other bet later.

And yet you still bet in the race . If you don't have a solid opinion, there are other races. Personally, my Nap for today is in the race so I have also had a bet.

[The Equaliser]

47 minutes ago, Bang on said:

And yet you still bet in the race . If you don't have a solid opinion, there are other races. Personally, my Nap for today is in the race so I have also had a bet.

Haha, you are right of course.  However, @The Brigadierput up Rainbow Dreamer at 5/1 so I figured that since there is little between the runners according to @richard-westwoodthen if I back my selection ew at 10/1 then I stand a good as chance as any of getting some sort of return.  Your horse is rock solid in the market and I sincerely wish you all the best with that one

The Brigadier

8pm

Kempton

Rainbow Dreamer

 

5/1

bet365" data-ratio="40.94" style="width:100px;" width="342" src="https://www.punterslounge.com/static/img/sources/bet365.png" />

A cracking two mile class 2 handicap with £41k of prize money up for grabs. There’s many interlinked form lines from recent races here and it’s Alan King’s nine year old who maybe able to see them all off if repeating his latest course and distance victory. That came three weeks ago when he saw off four of today’s rivals. A 3lb rise may not stop him being competitive again at a track where he thrives at having won 5 of his 6 starts here. Rossa Ryan rode the veteran for the first time last time and retains the partnership tonight.

8:00

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by The Equaliser

[Sporting Sam]

 

KEMPTON 5.30

PERDIKA

Gets my vote to land the four timer on handicap debut.

Form franked by abbey's dream in the previous race who set a mild pace but otherwise had every chance.

Very light treated on ratings and races off lower weight than in previous runs in stakes races.

Going to go off a better price than expected as well.

 

[richard-westwood]

6 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

530 kemp 

Perdika   8.4 2.46 

Low price this one but next horse is 7.6 so top rated is waayy in front so I'll be interested to see how this pans out ....I'll try 10pt win on betfair 

Wins ...+14.00

[Zilzalian]

great race this 8:00 at kempton. not sure why bandonelli is fave but appleby and buick are what they are. withhold once a nothumbaland plate winner and highly fancied for the melbourne cup until it got injured and not been at its best since is intriguing seemed to have a lot left last time out but imperium ought to be fav. with a couple of outsiders to note namely juan bermudez and the johnson gg temporize. the king horse hasnt won before with this many runners but is quite solid and had a few of these behind last time. heather main has island brave running again and also could pinch it. like i said a great race this.

[Sporting Sam]

8.30

Junkano 

Win 

Won a class two off 77.

No suprise if yard dropping other runner out from up the handicap tactical in favour of this runner.

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

21 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

5yo selections

Lucky 15 with BET365

COURSE	TIME	SELECTION	ODDS
Hexham	0.30	New Zealander	25/1
Dundalk	1.30	Chimeric	33/1
Lingfield	2.00	Marion's Boy	11/2
Hexham	2.50	Chemical Warfare	5/1

2 losers and 2 NRs.

A quick question, with the 2 NRs I was expecting £1.20 back from my investment of £1.50 as only the double and 2 singles were still valid. It's not a big deal but is my logic wrong somewhere (I don't make these type of bets very often).

[harry_rag]

13 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

2 losers and 2 NRs.

A quick question, with the 2 NRs I was expecting £1.20 back from my investment of £1.50 as only the double and 2 singles were still valid. It's not a big deal but is my logic wrong somewhere (I don't make these type of bets very often).

2 non runners means 2 singles and a double are void. So I’d expect your return to be 30p. The fourfold becomes a double on the remaining selections, the trebles are reduced to doubles and singles and the doubles involving the NRs to singles.

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

2 non runners means 2 singles and a double are void. So I’d expect your return to be 30p. The fourfold becomes a double on the remaining selections, the trebles are reduced to doubles and singles and the doubles involving the NRs to singles.

Thanks for that. Makes sense now.