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buga00

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  1. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > 9th Sep   
    Boreham Wood v Leyton Orient The home side got off to a very strong start to the season, but they are now without a win in three. I put them up to beat Tranmere at a big price in the first of those games and they blew a 2 goal lead that day and it may have just affected their confidence a little. They were pretty poor at Barrow last weekend and it was more comfortable for Barrow than the 2-1 scoreline suggests. I put up Leyton Orient on the handicap last week and in the end they covered it with ease. Their two defeats so far have both come on 3G pitches and its clear they struggled to cope with the different pitch. They have won their other two away games and as I said last week they should continue to get better. I'm surprised they are as big as 113/50 with Marathon to win this as I would make them slight favourites.   Sutton v Gateshead Given Sutton couldn't win away from home last season it is rather surprising to see that they have better away form than home form so far this season. It seems last weekend they put in a rare bad performance at home when losing 2-0 to Maidenhead. Their other defeat at home came to Maidstone who of course also play on a 3G pitch. I think they have a great chance of bouncing back against a Gateshead side who not only haven't won in 3 games, but have only picked up 1 point on their travels so far. Sutton should be a shade of odds on so Marathon's 28/25 appeals.   AFC Telford v Harrogate Telford have had real issues at home so far this season have lost all 4 games and conceding 12 goals in the process. Harrogate have had a really strong start to the season and look almost certain to be in the promotion picture come April. Granted they have only picked up 1 point from their last two games, but then they played Brackley who also had a 100% record at the time and then they went down 2-1 to ante-post favourites Salford. They were probably unlucky not to pick up a point on Tuesday night and they should appreciate playing a lesser side than either of those two. Harrogate are odds on across the board apart from Marathon who are a shade of odds against and that is appealing.    Redditch v Chesham The home side make plenty of appeal here. It could be argued they have had a fairly kind fixture list so far having played two of the weakest sides in the division, but they did put 5 past Dunstable and 4 past Dorchester. They also beat Farnborough 3-1 and their only defeat was against Kettering who have won all five of their games so far. Chesham have struggled in their last two league games having surprisingly lost 5-0 to Basingstoke and then only beating a Kings Langley side who played the last half an hour with 9 men 1-0 to a late scrappy goal. I think Redditch should be odds on so am more than happy to take 6/5 with Marathon on the home win and I just make them the best bet of the weekend.
  2. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Sep 4th & 5th   
    Braintree v Welling
    I didn’t expect Braintree to be doing so well after relegation last season, but they have only lost one of their first 8 games and have set up a solid base for the rest of the season. They had to come from behind on Saturday against Oxford City, but it was their 5th win of the season and an odds against quote (albeit only very slightly above evens with Marathon) to beat Welling looks worth taking. Welling have only won once this season and although a draw at Bath on Saturday was a decent result, they did lose two of their best players to injury in the first half. This is another very tough away game for them and I like the chances of a home win.
    Chippenham v Gloucester City
    The prices for this game make little sense to me. Gloucester started the season terribly, but have really turned it around having won four games on the bounce, including a very good 3-2 victory at St Albans on Saturday. City were struggling to score goals so the fact they have 8 in their last 3 games is a big reason behind their improvement in form. Chippenham have been a bit inconsistent so far this season with some very good results, mixed in with some disappointing ones like their 4-2 loss to Eastbourne on Saturday. They have also conceded 15 goals so far this season and although they have scored 14 it is clear defensively they have issues. Given they are 4 points behind City I can’t understand why they are odds on with most bookies for this game. It is almost like bookies have priced it up based on the fact City only had 1 point from their first 4 games not on the fact they have won their last 4. 14/5 with Bet 365 is way bigger than it should be about an away win. At the prices they look the joint best bet of the night along with Braintree.
    Poole v Hemel Hempstead
    Hemel have been a little disappointing after a decent start to the season and they have only picked up 1 point in their last 4 games. They should have been out of sight against Truro on Saturday as they had quite a few chances in the first half, but they only put one away and they ended up losing the game 2-1. Poole have also picked up just the 1 point in their last 4 games and that came on Saturday when they blew a 2 goal lead against bottom side Whitehawk. That is a pretty shocking effort and I don’t think Poole are anywhere near as strong as they were last season. Hemel’s side look stronger on paper and I still think they can play a part in the promotion picture.  Whatever they do in the future though they certainly look too big a price at 68/25 with Marathon to win this game.
    Stockport v Southport
    Like Braintree I certainly didn’t see Southport’s cracking start coming. I wouldn’t have even had them that close to the promotion picture and yet they currently sit in 3rd place having lost just once. That was an unfortunate defeat to Salford last Monday and it was a game they didn’t deserve to lose. They bounced straight back with a good 2-0 win against Darlington on Saturday and they look over priced to beat a Stockport who have yet to really convince so far this season. I did put them up last Monday, but they were poor in a 3-1 defeat at Tamworth and then they only drew at home to Bradford Park Avenue on Saturday. Southport should be a much tougher test and it is hard to understand why they are 23/10 with Betfred and BetVictor.
    Workington v Warrington
    Granted the division is very tight after 6 games, but it has been very pleasing to see Warrington topping the table having put them up at 33/1 ante-post. To be fair they under performed in only beating Grimsby Borough 1-0 in the FA Cup on Saturday as they are 3 tiers below them, but amazingly that was their first win in the competition since they famously beat Exeter on the BBC. Workington are out of the FA Cup losing 1-0 to Scarborough who play in the league below so it was a bit of an upset. They have only won once in the league and that came on the first day of the season against a poor Halesowen side. Granted they have drawn their last 3 league matches, but I think Warrington should be favourites here and am happy to back them at BetVictor’s 9/5.
  3. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Sep 2nd   
    Hartlepool v Maidstone.
    Hartlepool may have got their first win of the season on Monday, but I am still keen to take them on.  Maidstone have had a cracking start to the season and have carried on their good end of season form from last season. They look big at just over 11/4 with Marathon.
    Leyton Orient v Guiseley
    Orient are doing much better than I thought they would early doors, although it has to be said they have had a fairly kind fixture list and that continues on Saturday when they face a managerless Guiseley who haven’t even put a caretaker manager in place for this match so they really will be mangerless! I mentioned on Monday about Guiseley’s awful away form and the two added together should mean a fairly comfortable afternoon for Orient. They are 29/20 (various) to make up the -1 handicap.
    Torquay v Chester
    Torquay look hopeless at the moment and although Chester aren’t that much better they certainly perform better away than at home as proven when they beat Aldershot last Saturday which was their first win of the season. These two sides should be much closer together in the betting and Chester are very much a value play at 12/5 with Bet 365.
    Hampton & Richmond v Dartford
    Dartford lost their first game of the season on Monday, but that was to an East Thurrock side who are still unbeaten. They can bounce back here against a Hampton side who have yet to really convince so far this season. Marathon go 9/5 about an away win and I would make Dartford favourites.
    Billericay v Didcot.
    For the 2nd season running bookmakers have left the 1st Qualifying Round of the FA Cup alone, but this game is being streamed on the BBC website at 12.30pm. It is no surprise the BBC have gone with this game given all that is going on there at the moment. It also isn’t surprising that they are bigging this game up as a massive one given the cameras are there. Didcot are doing well so far this season at a step below their hosts, but given what Billericay have done to teams in their own division recently I can’t see anything but an easy home win. They will want to put on a show and prove to everyone how good they are and that makes the 5/4 with Paddy Power that they over come the -2 handicap very attractive and for the 3rd time this season I make them the Naps.
  4. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Aug 28th   
    On holiday at the moment so just very brief thoughts
    AFC Fylde v Barrow
    These two sides are liking to draw so far this season, but I think the home team look in better shape and should hopefully build on Saturday's win. Barrow did well enough to get a draw on Saturday in their first game since Paul Cox quit, but it sounds like all is not well there if he wanted to quit and Fylde seem a fair price
    Guiseley v Hartlepool
    Obviously I didn't see Guiseley's game on BT Sport on Saturday, but it sounded like that was a good thing as they lost in a dull game 2-0. It's early days, but they have lost all 3 away games conceding 9 and scoring 0. At home they have won once and drawn twice in 3 games so it does seem they are focusing on home points. I don't need to add more to what I wrote on Saturday about Hartlepool and 21/10 about a home win is a big price.
    Maidstone v Dagenham & Redbridge
    Going with the same bet as Saturday which won with ease and would have been successful in 4 out of 6 of Maidstone's games. It is even money again with Skybet.
    Boston v Nuneaton
    Granted Nuneaton's away form hasn't been great to say the least, they have shown glimmers of fair form. Boston aren't anything special and ended Saturday's game with 9 men. These two should be closer in the betting than they are and 61/25 with Marathon is a big price.
    Darlington v Spennymoor
    Darlington haven't won in 3 now and the last two results will have been especially disappointing. Spennymoor continue to defy their silly 100/1 price for the title that Betway went and very nearly beat Salford on Saturday. 11/5 an away win Marathon looks a spot of value.
    Tamworth v Stockport
    One point separates these two sides, but I think Stockport look the stronger and I am not surprised they are being backed. 19/10 with Marathon still looks value though.
    Farnborough v Slough
    Farnbrough won their first game of the season and have lost their next 3, where as Slough have done the complete opposite. Slough are looking good after that defeat to Kettering, who have won all 4 of their games, and they can win again at 6/5.
    Thurrock v Billericay
    God knows how Kingstonian beat Billericay because they have been terrible since. Glenn's side have won all 3 games since and in the end hammered Burgess Hill 6-1 on Saturday. Thurrock did play on Friday night, but I doubt that will be much of an advantage over Billericay. They won although they had lost their other 3 games and beating pointless Worthing 3-2 doesn't say a great deal. I am amazed Billericay aren't much shorter and a shade of odds on looks a cracking price. They look the Nap of the day.
  5. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Aug 25th & 26th   
    Macclesfield v Dover
    Must admit I am not sure why this game takes place on Friday night, but hopefully it can give me a good start to the weekend. My tip for Dover to go down is already looking pretty bad given their strong start to the season. Their only defeat so far came against Bromley when in fact they were by far the better team and should really have won rather than suffering a 2-1 defeat. They got a solid draw against Barrow last Saturday and they look over priced to beat a Macclesfield side who look pretty average so far this season. Their only win so far came against Wrexham on the first day of the season, but they were fortunate to pick up the 3 points that day. Since then they have drawn at home to Hartlepool and Bromley before conceding two late goals against Sutton and then being well beaten 3-0 by Gateshead last weekend. Dover have looked the better side of the two so far and William Hill’s 11/5 looks too big.
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Bromley
    When John Still won the league with Luton he set them up to be very hard to score goals against in the early part of the season. It worked well although they scored very few, but he then worked on that once they were solid defensively. It is then surprising to see how bad Dagenham have defended so far this season. They have conceded in every game so far including two 2-2 draws and a 3-3 draw. At the other end, as those 3 results show, they don’t have any issues either and given their other 2 results were 2-1 victories that obviously means they have scored at least twice in all 5 matches so far this season. To be fair to Bromley they have only conceded twice this season, but that was against teams who haven’t exactly been prolific in their other games this season and I think they will find it much harder to keep Dagenham out. Bromley have scored 10 goals so far and although 6 did come against Lincoln it does show they have goals in them and they are sure to get a few chances against Dagenham’s dodgy defence. The bet I like here is for there to be over 2.5 goals and both teams to score which is even money with Coral and Stan James. That bet will have won in every Dagenham game this season.
    Hartlepool v AFC Fylde
    Two sides who have yet to win this season, but the away team have looked the better side to me. In my ante-post preview I was concerned about Hartlepool’s choice of manager and I really do think his lack of knowledge when it comes to this league has been a big issue as to why they have only 2 points on the board. I also talked about how Padraig Almond was going to be a key player for them and he left for Newport this week. That is a big blow for them especially as they have only scored 3 goals so far this season. Amazingly Fylde have drawn 4 of their 5 games so far with the only blip the 4-1 defeat to Maidenhead when Dave Tarpey scored all 4 goals. The last two Saturday’s they have conceded 90th minute equalizers and they aren’t far away from getting that crucial win. They have conceded 12 goals so far, but given Hartlepool’s lack of fire power hopefully that shouldn’t be too much of a concern and they do have goals in them so even if Hartlepool did manage 1 I would still be pretty hopeful Fylde could score at least 2. Marathon have them a shade bigger than 5/2 and that looks huge. They are my Nap of the day.
    Tranmere v Boreham Wood
    It is hard to know what has gone wrong so far this season for Tranmere and although it is early stages I am worried about my ante-post bet on them. They have only won once so far and that 3-1 victory over Woking are the only goals they have scored so far. That is a big concern as they should really be a team full of goals. On paper they also had a pretty easy start to the season so the fact they have only picked up 5 points is disappointing. Obviously for ante-post reasons I hope they can get 3 points on Saturday, but I have to back Boreham Wood here at 23/5 with Marathon. Wood certainly have had no issues with scoring goals and they are the leagues joint top scorers on 13 with Aldershot, who they beat 2-1 last Saturday. There may have been a bit of fortune in both their goals, but they were the better team and deserved the win. I would still have Tranmere as favourites for this game, but there is no way that Wood should be that big given the current form of both sides and they are worth a bet.
    Hungerford v Gloucester City
    My team Gloucester have had a very slow start to the season and only had a point on the board prior to a really good 1-0 win over Hemel last Saturday. That was a much improved performance and hopefully that will kick start Gloucester’s season. On the back of that I can’t really understand why Marathon have an away win priced up at 100/30 especially as Hungerford have the same points tally as City. Hungerford picked up their 4 points in their first two games and have lost their following 3. They also lost their manager last weekend who resigned after the Welling game saying he had already made up his mind to leave and then a couple of days later ended up as Wealdstone manager despite the fact he said in a statement that he was going to take a break! Why he just couldn’t have been honest I don’t know, but he has also taking his coaching team with him which has left two senior players in charge at Hungerford. That has to have had some sort of affect on the players and although they should still be favs these two sides should be much closer in the betting.
    Dorking Wanderers v Staines Town
    Staines have made a really good start to the season. They played well at Dulwich in their opener when getting a 1-1 draw and then they have scored 11 without reply when beating Tooting 6-0 and Kingstonian 5-0. Promoted Dorking did win their only home game 4-1 against Met Police, but they have lost their other two games and this looks their toughest test yet. I certainly am not saying Staines are going to score in big numbers again, but after such a promising start to the season they should be capable of picking up three more points. BetVictor are biggest at 11/8.
  6. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > Aug 14th - 16th   
    Solihull v Barrow
    Solihull have got off to a terrible start to the new season. They were well outclassed at Leyton Orient last Tuesday night when losing 3-1 and then it got even worse at Boreham Wood on Saturday as they lost 4-1. They have taken the gamble of mainly recruiting from lower down the pyramid and so far it isn't working as they are struggling to get up to speed. Now this is their first home game of the season so that might help matters, but I have to back Barrow here given Solihull's first two efforts of the season. I put up Barrow last Tuesday when they were held to a disappointing 0-0 draw with Halifax, but they followed that up with a good 3-0 win over Woking on Saturday. I think they should be odds on for this so am happy to take the 11/10 with Stan James. 
    Sutton v Macclesfield
    Sutton had a great result at the weekend when they won 1-0 at Tranmere. That could spell a change to their away form this season, but having said that they won at Lincoln last August and then it was months before they added to that away victory. Tranmere will obviously be hoping that is a good omen! Back to Sutton and they look set to be as strong at home as they were last season based on their dominant win at Leyton Orient on the first day of the season. Macclesfield are unbeaten having won once and drawn twice, but they have been pretty unconvincing so  far and I think Sutton will have too much for them on their 3G pitch. Skybet's 11/10 is too big for me.
    Woking v Eastleigh
    Woking did manage to win their first game of the season when impressing against Gateshead, but things have not gone so well in their two away games since conceding 3 at Tranmere and Barrow. The visit of Eastleigh will be another stiff test for them and my concerns that I had pre-season about Woking remain, that is that they look possible relegation candidates this season. Eastleigh on the other-hand will be hoping to be in the play-of picture and after playing out a dull 0-0 with Bromley first up they beat Sutton last Tuesday and then got a good point against Dagenham on Saturday. I'm surprised Eastleigh are as big as 11/8 (various) and that is well worth taking. 
    Tamworth v Boston
    Down into the National League North now and Tamworth have had a very mixed start to the season. They beat Leamington 1-0 last Tuesday, but either side of that they lost to Bradford and Blyth, who put 4 past them on Saturday. Whilst Tamworth were conceding 4, Boston weren't doing an awful lot as their game against Spennymoor got called off as Spennymoor weren't able to reach the ground in time. At this stage of the season when the games are coming thick and fast I do think that could be an advantage for Boston. They had a nightmare start to the season as Southport beat them 4-0, but they bounced back beating Alfreton 3-1 last Tuesday. If they can take that performance into this then they will have a much better chance than the odds of 23/10 (Bet 365) suggest.
    Truro City v Bath City
    Truro have made a cracking start to the season having won twice and then being involved in a 2-2 draw at Concord on Saturday. That doesn't tell the whole story though as Truro scored twice in the last 6 minutes before Concord equalised in the last minute. They are certainly looking a lot stronger than last season and they host a Bath side who have lost all 3 matches so far. They did take the lead against Chelmsford on Saturday, but they conceded twice in the 2nd half to make it 3 defeats on the bounce. I just can't understand how Bath are favourites for this given both teams respective results so far this term and the fact a trip to Truro on a Tuesday night is hardly the easiest one of the season. The home side should be favourites so the 15/8 with Marathona and Bet365 makes a lot of appeal.
    Whitby Town v Stalybridge Celtic
    Celtic were one of my ante-post picks for the Evo-Stik Northern Premier title this season and they got off to a great start when beating Nantwich 1-0 on Saturday. The match report suggests it should have been more than the 1 as well which bodes well. Their hosts tonight started their season with a 1-0 defeat to Barwell. I thought the bookies underrated Celtic before the season started and I think that is also borne out in the prices for this game and BetVictor's 19/10 is too big.
    Lowestoft v Billericay
    Despite my thoughts on what is going on at Billericay I have to bet with my head and although Tamplin is no manager they clearly should be winning this game. I thought that an odds against price about them would be hardly seen all season, so it was with great surprise to see that they are odds against for this game tonight. At the end of the day that price makes no sense given the respective sides and as much as it would be funny if they failed to win again, I can't let them go unbacked at odds against. They are 6/5 with Marathon to beat the home side who lost at Leatherhead on Saturday.
  7. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Weekend Non-League 1st April   
    Another quiet one for me but there look to be a couple of bets worth having.
    Bath v Maidenhead
    Maidenhead seem to be over their little blip and still have the title in their own hands. I was surprised to see odds against (11/10 bwin) about them to win this match especially as Bath have little to play for now. Bath have lost their last two including a shock defeat to Gosport and it will be disappointing if Maidenhead can't keep the gap they have over Ebbsfleet.
    Frickley v Grantham
    The problem this season is that all of the leagues have a few teams who are awful and at this stage of the season the prices have got very short on their opponents. Here is one game though where I think the bookies have missed a trick. Frickley had been doing OK, but they have lost their last 6 games. That has included defeats to Halesowen and they are the only team the woeful Ilkeston have beaten in their last 8 games. Grantham still have a chance of the play-offs and have only lost once in their last 10 games. It would be a surprise if they didn't follow up their superb win at Stourbridge last Saturday with another 3 points here. BetVictor's 11/10 looks big.
  8. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Weekend > Mar 24th & 25th   
    Don't fancy a great deal this weekend but have a couple of singles at biggish prices and a treble.
    Dagenham & Redbridge v York
    Dagenham are blowing very hot and cold at the moment, but by all accounts Aldershot were every bit as dominate as their 3-0 victory suggests on Tuesday and that followed the defeat at Barrow on Saturday. All of a sudden their pretty much guaranteed play-off place isn't looking so certain and York look value here. I still think York will survive and they picked up a big 3 points on Tuesday night. That followed them coming back from 2 down at Sutton to get a 2-2 draw which is a decent effort given how strong Sutton have been at home this season. They still only have won away victory which came at North Ferriby on Boxing Day and they have drawn all 5 away league games since then. Given that stat you would think covering the draw would be a wise way to go, but John Still has said he doesn't want to go for draws and they have only drawn 4 times all season. With that in mind the outright win on York at 33/10 with Marathon is the way to go.
    Guiseley v Dover
    Only Lincoln have better home form in their last 10 home games than Guiseley and it is rather odd that their only defeat in that time came against North Ferriby. They have beaten Lincoln at home in that time and in their last two home games they have beaten play-off chasing Barrow and Aldershot. That means they are are going to be dangerous for another play-off chasing side in Dover. Now Dover do have Ricky Miller back for this which is obviously a plus, but they lost four of their last five away games with just a win against North Ferriby in that spell. I think the home side should be slight favourites for this match given how strong they are at home so the 21/10 is certainly worth taking.
    Treble
    The collapse of St Albans is one of the strangest things of the season. They were going so strongly that the Racing Post put them up as a bet to win the league in their half-term report over Christmas. It has been downhill ever since though and they only have one win and one draw in their last 10 games. They probably reached a new low on Saturday when losing 4-0 to Gosport, a side who hadn't won since October! With Dartford going for the play-offs and in good form they should win this. Bishops Stortford sacked their manager after an 8-0 defeat to Ebbsfleet on Tuesday. They now face the other side going for the title in Maidenhead and although I doubt they will score 8 they should have a comfortable afternoon. The other team is Buxton in the Evo-Stik Northern Premier who go to bottom side Skelmersdale. The home side lost 10-1 on Tuesday night and again I am not expecting that here, but it should be an easy win for Buxton. The treble pays 1.8/1 with Marathon.
  9. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Midweek > Mar 20th - 22nd   
    3 bets for me. Happy to oppose Sutton away from home again although there are obviously on a 3g pitch this time and they were unlucky to lose at Aldershot on Saturday. Maidstone though have had a couple of weeks off so will be fresh and had found their form prior to their break so they are just about value. Lincoln are now odds on but I think they are still worth backing. Boreham Wood can't score goals (bar a freak 5-0 defeat of Dover) and Lincoln should have too much for them. Chester are in woeful form at the moment and they looked very low in confidence in a poor game against Eastleigh on Saturday which they ended up losing 1-0. Macclesfield will hopefully take their FA Trophy performances over Tranmere into this game.
  10. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Weekend > Mar 18th   
    No preview but 3 bets. Very strong on Aldershot who should be odds on really. Lowestoft in good form against an out of form Worthing looks value at 21/10 and a treble on Blyth, Nantwich and Billericay.
  11. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Weekend > Mar 11th & 12th   
    Eastleigh v Barrow

    Eastleigh continue to look poor and some of their defending against York last weekend was shambolic. Barrow are just struggling for a bit of consistency so far in 2017 and it is no doubt frustrating for Paul Cox that two of their 3 victories so far this year have come against Lincoln and then Tranmere on Tuesday night. So given they have beaten 2 of the top 3 sides he must be wondering why they are dropping points elsewhere. Their away form does worry me slightly and they have only won two of their last 10 away matches having drawn 5 of them. However, with Eastleigh looking so bad you have to hope Barrow take Tuesday night’s performance into this game and if they do the 13/8 (various) about them getting 3 points is a fair price.

    Woking v Boreham Wood

    Boreham Wood are lucky they have picked up so many points earlier in the season because they have only picked up 7 in their last 10 matches and they have only won once (against Torquay) in their last 14 games. That win was away from home, but they have only picked up one more point on the road in their last 10 away games. Woking are having to rely on their home form to try and escape relegation and their only defeats in their last 9 home league games have been against Aldershot and Tranmere. Gary Hill was no doubt disappointed they lost away at North Ferriby last weekend, but they have only picked up 3 wins on the road and this looks a very winnable game for them. William Hill’s 29/20 about a home win is certainly value in my view.

    Welling v Poole

    Poole are in superb form at the moment as they try and cement a play-off place (although their ground needs to improved if they are to be allowed to complete in them). They have only lost once in their last ten games and that defeat was against Ebbsfleet who are in the title battle with Maidenhead. Away from home they are unbeaten in their last 6 and as their game was called off last weekend they come into this match fresh which given the heavy pitches at the moment is a big plus. Welling have struggled since Jamie Day left and they were very poor when losing to Whitehawk last Saturday. Marathon are 63/50 about an away win and that is way bigger than anyone else at the time of writing. Even at the general 11/10 I think it is a fair price.

    Grantham v Ilkeston

    I haven’t written about Ilkeston too much of late, but the farce off the pitch took another step-up this week as it was announced the players, who are full-time, have not been paid. They didn’t turn up to training on Thursday because they said they didn’t have enough money to pay for petrol to get there. Now that is hardly the best prep for a game especially given how bad they have been performing. Grantham are still bang in play-off contention and really should be able to at least cover the -1 handicap which is 6/5 with Stan James.

  12. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Midweek > Mar 6th - 8th   
    Just the one bet from me and after Billericay finally coming good for me on Saturday I am with them again at 11/10. After posting my preview last week things got a bit odd at the club as the manager decided to leave and the owner has taken charge until the end of the season. It is an odd one that you would hope isn't a long term thing but the new owner seems on a bit of an ego trip at the moment. I do think it will come crashing down at some point in the future, but it is hard not to see them winning the league in a canter next season. Granted they lost to Grays recently but you would hope they can get the better of another team in the relegation zone in Hendon.
  13. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League weekend 4th March   
    Worcester v Darlington

    As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago Worcester aren’t in a great place at the moment both on and off the pitch and they were hopeless last weekend against Altrincham. That 2-0 defeat at Altrincham was just their 2nd win of the season and their first at home and even if Worcester don’t take voluntary relegation they will probably be going down anyway. Saturday sees play-off hopefuls Darlington visit and although they have been rather in and out of late, they were a bit unlucky to lose 3-2 to Harrogate last Saturday as they had a man sent off and they then comfortably saw off Altrincham in the week. They should have too much for Worcester and I am surprised they aren’t shorter than they are. Marathon are best at 22/25.

    Harlow v Billericay

    It is amazing that the only two games Billericay have failed to win of late have been the two times I have tipped them up. First of all they lost to Grays then on Tuesday they drew 2-2 with Enfield. They were 2 up and then had man sent off and that completely changed the game. Amazingly Billericay have signed Paul Konchesky this week and if it wasn’t already clear they were splashing the cash that signing certainly is. Harlow are actually above them in the table, but there is no doubt in my mind Billericay have the best squad in the division at the moment and I am happy to back them at Marathon’s 13/10.

  14. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Midweek > Feb 20th - 22nd   
    Just the one bet from me Macclesfield at 2/1 to beat Eastleigh. See no reason not to carry on opposing the home side.
  15. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Weekend > Feb 18th   
    I actually think Barrow are on the short side. They have been struggling to win football matches and although Torquay aren't great Barrow hardly seem a team you want to be lumping on at short odds at the moment. Look much better odds on shots this weekend.
  16. Like
    buga00 reacted to Tanktop in Weekend > Feb 18th   
    Nice one @sammydubs youve done some of the write up for me already! Was also going to go for Burgess hill and Barrow (Torquay are going to have a very long round trip as well!). My other ones are:
    Bromley v Solihull
    Bromley are on form at the  minute, winning 6 and losing 2 of their last 8 home games. the losses against Forest Green and Dover, Solihull are W2 D2 L3 in the lat 8 away, including a defeat to lowly Woking on Tuesday.
    http://www.solihullmoorsfc.co.uk/news/details.php?news_id=12567
    Bromley @ 1.95
     
    Dartford v Chelmsford
    Six wins in a row have propelled Dartford up the table, they have lost 1 and won 7 of their last 8 (and all but 2 of those games have had 4 or more goals), and lost once at home all season, at the minute theyre scoring goals for fun. Chelmsford City have playoff aspirations of their own and were in with a shout of the title race up until mid October. The Essex club went seven games without a win, drawing six of them. The Clarets have since got back to winning ways, with defeat at Ebbsfleet United an exception, yet on the weekend they shared the points with St Albans City to drop two in a frustrating afternoon. Stringer noted his attack wasn’t clinical enough, a problem he’s noticed with frequency this campaign. They have won once in the last 6 away matches. They have won 4 league matches since october 22nd (W4 D7 L7), but these 4 wins were against teams in the bottom 4 (whitehawk, truro and Bishops stortford x2)
    http://www.dartfordfc.com/match-preview-dartford-vs-chelmsford-city/ - Dartford preview
    http://nonleague.pitchero.com/news/big-test-for-clarets-against-darts-53437/ - Chelmsford preview
    Dartford @ 1.80
  17. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Weekend > Feb 18th   
    Interesting game between two teams going for promotion, but I don't really have a view either way. I tend to find games like that are usually priced up about right especially at Step 3 level.
  18. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Weekend > Feb 18th   
    Eastleigh v Tranmere
    I am rather surprised that Eastleigh have struggled so much since Martin Allen took over as manager, but then I was surprised they have been selling a few of their best players. On the other side of things the players who Allen has brought in haven’t been up to the standard of the players who left. They have only won one league game since Allen took over and they aren’t going to get anywhere near the play-offs. They suffered another home defeat to Braintree in the week as well. I can’t help but feel Tranmere’s title chances went when Bromley scored a late equalizer last Saturday, but they are still going to give it a go I am sure and they are certainly worthy of their place in the top 4. Eastleigh look there for the taking at the moment and Marathon’s 29/20 about an away win looks a good price.
     
    Boreham Wood v York
    Boreham Wood won’t allow opposing teams to film matches at Meadow Park, but given there have only been 21 goals in their home league matches, I don’t think people have been missing out on much. The home side are also currently bottom in the last 10 form table with just one win aganst Torquay in that spell. As mentioned a couple of weeks ago York are certainly improving and in the league they have only lost once since Boxing Day. They have had a pretty tough run of fixtures as well although they were certainly guilty of not putting the game to bed against Maidstone last weekend. I still think York will survive and I certainly think they now have a better team than their hosts. Marathon are a best price of 63/25 on an away win and that really does look overpriced.
     
    Nuneaton v Bradford Park Avenue
    Tommy Wright’s honeymoon as new Nuneaton manager is well and truly over and following a superb run of form, they are now in a desperate run of form having lost their last three league games. Granted they have been against 3 sides in the top 5, but they have been well beaten each time. Bradford will be easier, but they have had two decent victories and although Gainsborough had their keeper sent off after 8 minutes it was pleasing to see Bradford go on and win comfortably. Bradford’s away form has been decent in recent weeks with them wining four of their last six on the road and the two defeats narrow 1-0 losses to Salford and Harrogate. At the price of 23/10 (Marathon) they look a sporting play.
     
    Double
    Worcester are in big trouble on and off the field. Off the field they are short of money and even if they do avoid relegation it looks like they might have to take voluntary relegation to keep the club alive. On the pitch they don’t have a manger and are starting to lose some of their better players as they need to lower the wage bill. Harrogate beat them easily last weekend and given Halifax have won five and drawn one in their last six games they shouldn’t have too many issues gaining another 3 points here. Billericay are the total opposite to Worcester in that they have the cash to get in players and have made plenty of eye-catching signings in recent weeks.
    They struggled to gel to start with, but are now really hitting top gear and ran out 6-0 winners against 2nd place Needham Market on Wednesday night. They have also beaten 3rd place Havant recently and although the play-offs look like a step too far this season, they look strong title contenders for next season. Grays have won 2 and lost 8 of their last ten games and are detached at the bottom of the division. If they keep up the level they showed on Wednesday Billericay should win this Essex derby with ease and the 15/8 on the -1 handicap is also worth taking. The double pays 1.74/1 with Marathon.
  19. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Midweek Non League 14th-15th February   
    Guiseley v Sutton
    I think it is fairly obvious who I am tipping up here. Again I just don’t understand the prices and how bookies can make Sutton favourites. The reasons for taking them on are obviously the same on Saturday and the fact they lost 3-0 adds to the reasons. Going all the way up to Leeds on a Tuesday evening is probably the last thing they want at the moment and I am sure they just want Monday night to come. Guiseley might be in the relegation zone, but their home has been superb in recent months. Ever since they got their first win of the season when beating York 6-1 they have not been beaten at home in the league, that’s a run of 9 games which features just 3 draws. They only just kept that run going on Saturday as they equalised with the last kick of the game against Eastleigh. They played well again though and they are clearly relying on their home form to keep them up. If you can get on with Skybet then they are biggest at 7/4, but even at lesser odds they still rate fantastic value and I make them a max bet.

    Ilkeston v Coalville
    The fact Ilkeston didn’t play on Saturday and Coalville did (a 0-0 draw with Stafford) is a slight concern, but otherwise they look a solid bet at 5/6. I don’t really need to repeat myself about Ilkeston. Coalville might only be 17th in the league, but their away form has been good on the whole. Granted they have lost their last two, but Spennymoor and Stourbridge are two of the best sides in the division. Prior to that they had won 4 on the bounce on their travels and they should be more than capable of getting back to winning ways here. The 5/6 about an away seems a fair.
  20. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Midweek Non League 23rd-24th January   
    Hungerford v Whitehawk
    Needless to say I am opposing Whitehawk in this game on Monday night and I can't believe the price on the home side. Hungerford are unbeaten in 9 games and have only lost 3 games at home all season. They are having a very good first season at this level and still have a chance of sneaking into the play-offs. Just to repeat Whitehawk's recent poor form. They have only picked up one point in their last 7 league games and having seen the goals they conceded in their Trophy defeat to Dulwich last week it is easy to see why they are struggling. Marathon go 20/21 about a home win and I think that is massive, so big in fact I make them a max bet.

    Needham Market v Merstham
    Again regular readers will know opposing Merstham away from home has been a profitable bet this season as they have yet to win and picked up just 4 points. Indeed they are currently 6 games without a win home or away and they are currently in the relegation zone. Needham on the other hand moved into 2nd place with a great 3-1 win over title favourites Havant & Waterlooville. The home side have also just lost twice at home all season. The fact they played on Saturday and Merstham didn't is a slight concern so it does reduce stakes slightly, but even so Needham should really be shorter than the 4/5 Marathon and Betfred make them. Anyone who wants to do the double it pays 5/2 with Marathon.
  21. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Weekend > Jan 20th & 21st   
    Whitehawk v Hemel Hempstead
    I don't really need to repeat what I wrote about Whitehawk last week and despite going a goal up they still managed to be well beaten. I have watched the goals and some of the defending was shocking. It was easy to see why they are struggling at the moment and Hemel look a cracking bet. Hemel were on a shocking run of form themselves, but they have turned it around and are now unbeaten in their last 6 league games winning 4 and drawing 2. It is hard to see the home side adding to their one point in their last seven league games and I can't understand why the bookies have them as favourites. Betway's 17/10 about an away win looks very generous.
     
    Ilkeston v Corby
    Obviously it isn't a surprise I am taking on Ilkeston, but let this fact sink in for a second, they are favourites to win this match. Yes you read that right Ilkeston who have lost their last 7 games and have only picked up 2 points in their last 13 matches are favourites to win a game of football. Now Corby have only won 4 games all season and have been pretty hopeless for most of it, but finally they are improving and they had gone 4 games unbeaten prior to losing on Wednesday night, 2-1 to Coalville. It was probably the right result, but it still wasn't a bad effort especially in the context of this game. The only possible advantage Ilkeston have is the fact they haven't had a game for two weeks and that does bring confidence down slightly, but even so Corby should probably be a shade of odds on not just over 6/4 with Marathon.
     
    Treble
    Needless to say I think it is worth opposing Margate and Gosport again and they travel to East Thurrock and Hampton & Richmond respectively. The other team is Leamington who are top of the Evo-Stik Southern Premier and go to Cinderford. Long time readers will know that Cinderford were a team I opposed a fair bit earlier in the season, but annoyingly they managed to pick up some of their 12 points in a couple of games I opposed them in. Indeed their last win was when I tipped Chippenham to beat them. That was 9 games ago and they have picked up just one point since. The treble pays 1.2/1 with Marathon.
  22. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Midweek Non League 16th-17th January   
    I have a treble which pays 9/4 with Marathon. Tonight Hitchin host Dorchester and should add another 3 points. They have only lost once in their last 8 and didn't play on Saturday. Dorchester did and lost to St Neots who hadn't won since November. Dorchester haven't won in 6 now. The other two are no surprise as they take on Ilkeston and Skelmersdale. Hednesford travel to Ilkeston and although they have lost their last 3, they didn't play on Saturday and Ilkeston ended up losing to Sutton Coldfield. You would expect them to be too good. Top of the table Blyth go to Skelmersdale and you would hope for a similar result to that of Saturday when they lost to Stourbridge.
  23. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Weekend > Jan14th   
    Nuneaton v Guiseley

    When Darlington equalized in the 90th minute last weekend I couldn’t believe, but a couple of minutes later it was all smiles as Nuneaton found a winner to win their 7th consecutive match. Now Guiseley are in fair form themselves at the moment and manager Adam Lockwood even won manager of the month, but they are still to win away from home in the league. Now possibly things might be a little different as Guiseley might be more likely to go for the win in a cup tie, but given Nuneaton’s superb run of form they have to be worth a punt at Marathon’s 39/20.

    Whitehawk v Dulwich

    I am backing my local team Dulwich to cause an upset this weekend. Unfortunately I have yet to make it to a Dulwich game this season and disappointingly for them they have been drawing too many games. That is going to cost them the title, but they have the quality there to reach the play-offs and these two sides might even swap places at the end of the season. Whitehawk had an upturn in form when Richard Hill took over as manager, but it has gone the other way since he left. They have picked up just one point in their last 7 league matches and their last win was against bottom side Margate. They are only above the relegation zone on goal difference and it is easy to think that Dulwich are the better side at the moment so Marathon’s 109/50 is well worth taking.

    Worthing v Sutton

    I am kicking myself a little for not opposing Sutton at Braintree in mid-week given their terrible away form, but hopefully backing Worthing will be profitable. I feel like a broken record as I have written this sentence so many times, but Sutton have won just one away game all season in the League. What is also crucial here is Sutton have their big FA Cup 3rd Round replay next week and given they put out a weakened side against Dover prior to their 2nd Round match it is easy to see them doing the same here. Worthing also play on a 3g pitch so that might help Sutton, but Worthing are currently top of the Ryman Premier last 10 matches form table. They are unbeaten in 8 and have won 6 of those games. That is impressive form and even if Sutton don’t rest some of their stars the 13/5 (William Hill) about a home win looks a tasty price.

    Margate v Poole

    I didn’t oppose Margate last weekend as they played Bishop’s Stortford who were bottom. Even so they easily beat Margate 3-0 and it really is looking a desperate situation for them. Now Poole are obviously very short but Paddy Power are evens for them to cover the -1 handicap and that looks big.

    Skelmersdale v Stourbridge

    I’m not opposing Ilkeston this week as they go to a Sutton Coldfield side who aren’t great and I don’t really want to back at 8/11. Instead I prefer the 5/6 (Bet 365) about Stourbridge. Now Stourbridge are out of the FA Cup they can focus on the league and making sure they are in the play-offs at the very least. They have to be considered an outside bet for the title as well as long as their busy schedule doesn’t affect them too much. Sometimes cup runs can distract sides, but that has not been the case with Stourbridge. They are unbeaten in 9 league games and won 6 of those. That is a staggering run of form and given they won a league cup match on Tuesday night you can’t even say there might be a hangover after the Wycombe defeat. Skelmersdale are bottom of the table and their only win in their last 10 league matches was against Ilkeston. Stourbridge look a cracking bet and I make them a maximum bet.

  24. Like
    buga00 reacted to StevieDay1983 in Midweek > Jan 10th   


    A few fixtures tomorrow night for us to look over. @addpea, @bromsgrovegreen, @dawwe92, @Woodgate, @buga00, and @Carl Iles, are you lads thinking of a midweek bet here?
  25. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Festive Fixtures > Dec 31st - Jan 2nd   
    Fixtures are all over the place with the Ryman Prem fitting in two sets of fixtures and the other leagues one albeit on different days.
    Maidstone v Dover

    There are two live games on BT Sport over New Year and I think both are worth having a bet in. It starts with the Kent Derby on New Years Day and Dover look just the right side of value at even money. All the National League teams who played each other on Boxing Day have the reverse fixture on Sunday so we have some very recent form to go on. Now these two teams drew and it was a fair reflection of the game, but Dover are much better than Maidstone and I expect them to make their quality count in front of the cameras. Their away form is solid and they are unbeaten in their last 4 on the travels including a 1-1 draw at Forest Green. Maidstone’s home form has been poor all season and although annoyingly they have won two of the times I have taken them on within their last 6 home games, it has been a profitable strategy taking them on at home. In their last home game they lost to North Ferriby which really is poor especially as they conceded two to them and they had only scored 3 on their travels before that! Dover are bang in the play-off picture whereas Maidstone are dropping like a stone towards the relegation zone and we should be seeing an away win here.

    Dagenham & Redbridge v Braintree

    Having backed Braintree for relegation their recent upturn in form has not been good to see from that point of view, however I am happy to back them to do the double over Dagenham after beating them 3-2 on Monday. Braintree have only lost one of their last seven league matches (1-0 to Tranmere) and will fancy their chances of beating a Dagenham side who haven’t really played well for a few weeks now. The win at Dover was good, but bar that they have only managed to beat York and Maidstone in their last 8 league games. They do deserve some credit for getting a draw against Solihull after being 3 down, but they look a long way from the side who topped the table earlier in the season. Only York have a worse last six home game record and Braintree’s away form is actually better than their home form. This game is live on BT Sport on Monday night and at 41/10 Braintree are way overpriced on current form.

    Gloucester City v Brackley

    Gloucester are on a terrible run of form at the moment having lost their last 6 league games. However they have had a very tough run of fixtures given that includes 4 of the current top 6 in the National League North and Stockport who are 8th. Gloucester’s good form came when the fixture list was good and the fact they are playing the better teams, plus a few injuries has meant they are much closer to their true position in the league. I am sure they will be winning again soon, but Brackley beat them fairly comfortably 3-0 on Monday and I think it will be more of the same on Sunday. Brackley have won 6 of their last 7 games and look genuine play-off contenders. They look a fair price at 6/5 (Marathon) to do the double over Gloucester.

    Merstham v Burgess Hill

    Regular readers will know I have been keen to take on Merstham away from home because they have a dreadful away record. At home though it is a completely different story as they have lost just twice and won six, whereas they have yet to win on their travels. Burgess Hill have only managed one away win themselves and thus at 23/20 the home side look well worth a bet on for this game on New Years Eve.

    Ilkeston v Matlock

    No need to repeat myself here regarding Ilkeston and I can’t believe the bookmakers haven’t caught on yet as Matlock are too big at 4/5. Mickleover ended up putting 7 past Ilkeston and although that probably won’t happen here Matlock are a better team than Mickleover, indeed given their games in hand they have to be considered title contenders at the moment. In their last two games they have beaten Whitby and Buxton who are 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Evo-Stik Northern Premier at the moment. To me Matlock are essentially a max bet at 4/5, but I am going to put 4 points on the win and a point on the -1 at 2/1 because it will be disappointing if Matlock don’t win this with ease. This game takes place on Monday.

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