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buga00

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    buga00 reacted to BillyHills in Latest Tables - Week 1   
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    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > August 10th   
    Having struggled a little on the Nap front last season it was good to go 2/2 on that front with Eastbourne winning. It was also good to get the first big priced winner of the season thanks to Aldershot and Guiseley's thrashing of Bradford Park Avenue helped make it a profitable night. 3 of the Step 3 leagues get underway on Saturday to bring us up to 6 leagues and I have 8 bets across them.
    Previews to follow
    Bromley v Torquay
    It was a rude awakening for Torquay fans on Tuesday night as they were hammered 3-0 by Solihull. Gary Johnson called the Torquay performance inept and the worst he has seen since he joined the club. To be fair to the players though they were playing the team who finished 2nd last season and should be a play-off side this and that is a massive step-up from a very poor National League South. This will be another very tough game for them and whilst they will have got a kick up the arse from Gary, this is a good Bromley side who might for me look stronger than Torquay. They had a very comfortable win on Tuesday against Ebbsfleet and whilst this is harder they should be shorter than 6/4 to claim another 3 points.
    Notts County v Barnet
    Notts County got their first point of the season on Tuesday when drawing with 1-1 with Stockport. It was more proof though that they are struggling to come to terms with football at this level and that a team who signed 6 players 48 hours before the season started are struggling to gel. I wasn't certain of taking them on with Eastleigh or Stockport but I think Barnet are well worth backing. Barnet have 4 points from their first 2 games and have played well in both although the concern is both their goals have come from penalties. They need to take their chances, but I think they will certainly be capable of creating a few here and for me they should be no bigger than 2/1 and probably a bit shorter than that. Barnet for me are a step-up from the two opponents County have faced so far.
    Woking v Harrogate
    Woking played well in the first half against Aldershot on Tuesday, but they weren't so good in the 2nd half and Aldershot were able to take the derby day victory. I think Woking will struggle this season and I can't understand why Harrogate aren't clear favs for this game. They were involved in a great 2-2 draw with Solihull on day 1 and then were comfortable 3-0 winners at Barrow on Tuesday. Barrow is a tough place to go and it wouldn't be a big surprise if that was their heaviest defeat at home this season. Those two performances suggest Harrogate will be up their again this season and despite Woking's win at Dagenham I still think they will be in a relegation battle. Hopefully Harrogate can make their superior quality pay.
    Alfreton v Blyth Spartans
    This is a value play for me because Alfreton have been hammered in the betting from the opening prices and Blyth have drifted out to way too big a price. Blyth lost to Gloucester on the opening day of the season and I certainly don't think they will be a play-off contender as they were last season, but then Alfreton don't look like they will be anything special either. They have flattered to deceive for the last two seasons and my initial feeling is they will be no higher than mid-table. This game is currently priced up as if it is against title contenders and relegation fodder which isn't how I have seen it at all. Blyth have also had a week off as their game against Spennymoor was called off and that means they have 90 minutes less in their legs and extra training to get things right ahead of this game.
    Bradford Park Avenue v Kidderminster
    Just before I started to write the preview for this game it was announced that BPA had sacked their manager. We usually see the odd casualty during August, but for someone to be sacked with less than a week gone of the season is highly unusual. As I wrote in the preview for their game on Tuesday they had to be really bad to lose 5-0 to Curzon and then they went and lost 5-0 again to Guiseley. It's hard to know if they have done the right thing to sack the manager or not. I guess you could give him time to turn it around, but it would seem he has recruited poorly and its going to be hard when the fixtures come so fast in August for someone else to come in and change things quickly. I'm certainly happy to back Kidderminster here. Now Kiddie haven't exactly looked great themselves and I'm not sure I would want to be backing them at 11/8 to win away at anyone else in the league, but this is the right time to be playing BPA. Kiddie have the players to hurt them even if they look a little bit short of play-off contenders at the moment and they look a good bet to win this.
    Braintree v Wealdstone
    I saw Wealdstone in action on Tuesday night when they lost 1-0 to Dulwich. They will probably consider themselves unlucky to lose as they were very much on top when Dulwich scored the only goal of the game and the continued to see plenty of the ball. The problem was they didn't really test the keeper too much during the game despite some good build up play, although Dulwich looked really solid in defence and that was a big part in them keeping a clean sheet. They both look teams capable of being play-off contenders and both look better teams than they were last season. As I mentioned in my ante-post preview I don't think Braintree will do a great deal this season and they have lost their first two games although to be fair they were tough ones against Bath and Billericay. They actually played well against Braintree going down 3-2, but that was a local derby against the team everyone in the league will want to beat. I think they will suffer a bit of a comedown in this and their squad is very inexperienced this season. They also looked weak in defence and Wealdstone should be able to take full advantage. They are a big price and I make them the Nap's of the day.
    Weymouth v Chelmsford 
    I was a bit surprised that Chelmsford lost to Concord on Tuesday, but it suggests that like last season they could have issues away from home. Weymouth have put in two really good performances in their first two games back at this level beating Maidstone and drawing at home to Bath. Those suggest they will be a force to be reckoned with in NLS this season and it is hard to understand why Marathon have got them bigger than 2/1. I would have them at around 5/4 myself and they have a real chance of winning this.
    Merstham v Hornchurch
    Just one bet at Step 3 for me this weekend and although I hope Hornchurch don't win the title I certainly can see them getting their campaign off to a winning start. Merstham lost their manager and most of their squad to Kingstonian over the summer and they really are a shadow of the side who made the play-offs last season. They look likely to be struggling at the wrong end of the table given the strength of their side and Hornchurch ought to be odds on really.
    Bromley 1pt @ 31/20 with BetVictor
    Barnet 1pt @ 33/10 with BetVictor
    Harrogate 2pts @ 17/10 with BetVictor and Betway
    Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 5/1 with Boylesports (19/4 with BetVictor, 9/2 with Betfred)
    Kidderminster 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor
    Wealdstone 2.5pts @ 17/10 with BetVictor
    Weymouth 1pt @ 41/20 with Marathon
    Hornchurch 2pts @ 11/8 with Marathon
     
  3. Thanks
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > August 6th   
    Bit of a disappointing opening day of the season with only Dulwich winning although at least they were the Naps. Telford and Boston ought to have won as should the double, but that's the way it goes sometimes. There were some interesting results and I was kicking myself for not opposing Notts County who couldn't even muster a shot on target against Eastleigh. It seems to me they are a long way from having a side being competitive at the right end of the table and as much as I would love to oppose them on Tuesday night they host a Stockport side who looked pretty poor in the live game against Maidenhead so it's hard to want to back them after that even against Notts County. There are 7 teams I do like the look off though.
    Solihull Moors v Torquay
    As I wrote in my ante-post preview I thought that Torquay were, along with Notts County, the worst value to win the title. They won their first game back at this level when beating Boreham Wood 2-1 on Saturday, but they were up against 10 men for a lot of the game which would clearly made things easier for them. This game will be a much tougher test as they face last year's runners-up. Solihull got off to a solid start at the weekend drawing 2-2 with Harrogate in an exciting game which really should have been the live TV choice. They were really hard to beat at home last season and I fully expect it to be the same this time around. I think they should be closer to even money, to beat a team they should finish above come the end of the season, than they are so at 6/5 they look worth backing.
    Woking v Aldershot
    Both teams I tipped to go down won on Saturday although that still doesn't mean they won't be in a relegation scrap and I think the odds compliers have over reacted to Woking's win at Dagenham on Saturday. I just wonder if it was a good time to face Dagenham though who have had a big change in players and look like they might take a bit of time to gel. Granted Aldershot have had an even bigger turnover, but they also have a brand new manager which means it is a bit of a different story. They held their own against title favs Fylde on Saturday and that will give them a bit of confidence in this big local derby. I'd imagine both these sides will be in a relegation scrap and therefore the 3/1 on offer about the away side looks big as I wouldn't go any bigger than 2s myself.
    Yeovil v Eastleigh
    Eastleigh face the other relegated side after beating Notts County on Saturday. It doesn't sound like they played especially well and there is every chance they faced Notts County at the right time, but they could easily be facing Yeovil at the right time as well. Granted it as only a penalty that beat them on Saturday against Barnet. They did start off well, but manager Darren Sarll mentioned after the game that it was going to be a massive learning curve for a group of players who have been forced together late on. Eastleigh are a more settled side, albeit one who looks weaker on paper than last years, but their experience at this level could prove to be the deciding factor here as it did for them on Saturday. They look a big price at 12/5.
    Eastbourne v Tonbridge
    I think Eastbourne look the best bet of the night. They held out until injury time against Billericay and although disappointing to lose so late on I would imagine Lee Bradbury was happy enough with the performance. They should be more than capable of picking up the 3 points here as I am happy to continue to take on Tonbridge. Dulwich went down to 10 men early on, but were still able to take the lead and although Tonbridge ended up with their keeper being sent off and had an outfielder in goal, but Dulwich manager Gavin Rose decided to play it safe and just hold on for the 2-1 win rather than go for the 3rd goal. It worked nicely as although Tonbridge tried to find an equaliser Dulwich saw the game out. Eastbourne look capable of improving on their poor season last time around and look an a better side than Tonbridge who may well go straight back down. The home side look a fair price at 11/8.
    Dorking v Hemel Hempstead
    Hemel were very impressive on Saturday and arguably put in the most impressive performance in the division beating Hungerford 4-1. Sammy Moore has put together a decent side and although Dorking should go well this season they are missing some key players at the moment and that could prove key in a fixture against one of the leagues better sides. Dorking beat Slough thanks to a controversial injury time goal after the linesman put his flag up for offside only to put it down again and the Slough defence had stopped. Slough can consider themselves unfortunate to have lost that and Hemel will be even stronger opposition. Marathon are way overpriced on the away win for me at 93/50. 
    Concord v Chelmsford
    I got Concord wrong on Saturday as they ended up with a very comfortable 3-0 victory over Oxford City, but I am taking them on again here against a Chelmsford side who also had a 3 goal win beating Hampton 4-1. I think my problem with going with Oxford on Saturday was that I was keen to take on Concord and I didn't think Oxford were going to be as bad as they were, but I clearly overrated the Oxford side. Chelmsford are certainly much better than Oxford and I am prepared to back them here to hopefully back up my view that Concord will not do a great deal this season. I would certainly have Chelmsford as favs here and not as big as Marathon's 17/10.
    Bradford Park Avenue v Guiseley
    Just the one bet in the National League North on Tuesday. I was tempted to back Hereford to beat Gloucester as I think they will in a game where there are likely to be more away fans than home fans, but I think the price is about right so am leaving it (whilst obviously hoping Gloucester can somehow manage a win). Instead I will back Guislely at just under 6/4 to beat their Yorkshire rivals. As much as I didn't expect BPA to do much this season I certainly would not have thought they would have lost 5-0 to Curzon Ashton. Now granted their could be a positive response to that drubbing, but if you are losing 5-0 to Curzon that suggests you aren't very good. Now I would have had Guiseley as another bottom 6 side ahead of Saturday, but they were impressive in beating Kings Lynn 3-0 and with a performance like that behind them they will be full of confidence going into this. If BPA are every bit as bad as that opening day defeat suggests they are then the away side have to be backed.
    Solihull 1pt @ 121/100 with Marathon
    Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor
    Eastleigh 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor
    Eastbourne 2pts @ 11/8 with BetVictor
    Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 93/50 with Marathon
    Chelmsford 1pt @ 17/10 with Marathon
    Guiseley 1pt @ 147/100 with Marathon
  4. Thanks
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Ante-Post 2019/20   
    It seems to come around quicker every year, but it is again that time where I try and predict the winners of 7 leagues from the National League at Step 1 to the 4 leagues now sponsored by BetVictor at Step 3. Last season was just under 20pts profit following on from the previous two seasons which were over 20pts. Only one season in the 11 seasons I have done online has seen me make a loss on the ante-post bets. I feel it right to put a disclaimer at the start. Those of you who follow me on Twitter will probably have seen it hasn't exactly been a great summer wise for me after complications with my new-born son and for obvious reasons I haven't felt quite on top of things as I would be in an ideal summer. Therefore I have to thank former member of this forum Shipsupstreets or Paul as he is also known for providing me with his intensive notes so I could get up to speed. I obviously did have some teams in mind, but certainly Step 3 was one I really needed more research on and he has saved me a lot of time. With that out of the way lets move on to the preview itself.
     
    National League
    Two things to note when it comes to the National League is that favourites have a pretty rotten record and that teams coming down from League 2 really struggle to go back up at the first time of asking. Cheltenham won the title and Bristol Rovers went up via the play-offs, but that is it. Notts County have to defy both those stats although I just don't understand why they are market leaders. They are a team who have had well documented off the field issues and are lucky to not have been wound up, but fortunately for fans new buyers have been found. The club have been unable to sign any players due to a transfer embargo although they have had players playing in friendlies in the hope of signing when things are sorted out. The problem is though how on earth can any wage budget been set so how does Neil Ardley know what he has got to play with so who knows how many he will be able to sign. On the pitch they have done pretty well in pre-season friendlies which did surprise me I must admit, but I stopped using them as a pointer to the season ahead long ago. They look really poor favourites for me and I just can't see them winning the title as I write this. After that it is hard to be confident about how they will go with so many unknowns, but it would be a hell of an achievement for them to win the title and they help make the market.
     
    To be fair Notts County aren't favourites with every bookie (9/1 with Betway and BetVictor who have them as 3rd in the betting) with Chesterfield and AFC Fylde heading some bookies lists although both are also as big as 9/1. Starting with Chesterfield and I can certainly see them going much closer to getting back to the Football League than they did last season. You may remember they became the draw specialists under Marten Allen which became an easy way to make money for a good few weeks. They did improve under John Sheridan and they look to have a solid squad ahead of the season. What you have to ask yourself though is they are basically attempting to do what Leyton Orient did last season and are they actually as good as them? In my view they have a lesser manager and not as strong a squad and for that reason they look play-off hopefuls rather than possible title winners.
     
    AFC Fylde were one of my bets for the title last season, but they were really frustrating. They hardly lost a game, but they continually drew games away from home that they needed to win if they were going to win the title. Dave Challinor needs to change that this season. What he also needs to change is the reliance on Danny Rowe. They have been very lucky that he hasn't had a mid-long term injury as without his goals they would struggle. They play-off final and FA Trophy Final highlighted that perfectly for me. To be fair to Challinor he has certainly tried to address that issue so it might not be as big an issue as it has been the last two seasons. The other big issue is how play-off final losers always seem to suffer from a hangover. I thought Tranmere would get away with it two seasons ago and it was their slow start which stopped them from winning the title as they were the best team in the league by a mile that season (something highlighted by the fact they went up again last season whereas Macclesfield were nearly relegated). The interesting thing with Fylde though is that winning the FA Trophy might just help them get over that hangover, because they ended the season winning a trophy rather than losing a play-off final. I will be kicking myself a bit if they did win the title, but in what is a wide open league this year I want to be backing teams at double figures and as much as I think they will be in the play-offs at least I think the juice has gone from the price.
     
    Having said I want to be backing a team at a double figure price Wrexham just creep into being 10/1 and they are my idea of the champions this season. I don't need to be telling Wrexham fans that they have been in this division for way too long and they really have had a rollercoaster of emotions trying to get out of the league including bumping in Fleetwood when they probably had their best ever season at this level. What they have really lacked in the last two seasons is goals and to a lesser fact having a manager poached from them during the season. Hopefully this season they will score plenty of goals and Bryan Hughes won't be tempted away from the Racecourse Ground. The fact their leading scorer had six last season tells a story, but Hughes has gone all out to rectify that and I really think he has. What they have been very good at is keeping the goals out at the other end of pitch and their defence has basically stayed intact which is very good news. They clearly haven't been far away from title winners the last two seasons and they now look to have the potential to be champions with the squad they have and they are my main bet.
     
    Torquay are next in the betting and I just don't get it. I know Paul has them as possible play-off contenders and they might be capable of sneaking into 7th especially as they have a superb manager in Gary Johnson who got a Cheltenham team who weren't the best squad in the league to win the title 3 years ago. Maybe he is the reason why they are so short, but I would be amazed if they won the title. Given my own side have been in the National League South the last two seasons I have watched a lot of it and the standard has been shocking especially last season. Havant and Braintree went up two seasons ago and both came straight back down last season which tells you all you need to know. Now I certainly don't think Torquay will be going down and they were certainly the best team in the division over the last two years. For Johnson to take them from where they were when he took over to winning the league in a canter was impressive stuff, but the fact the league was so bad really helped with that. Johnson hasn't added too much to that squad, but for me they are top half/outside play-off hopefuls and no more than that.
     
    Harrogate are next in and they had a surprisingly good first ever season at this level reaching the play-offs. They do actually look stronger than last time around and I do think they will be in and around the play-offs again, but they really faded in the 2nd half of the season and I have always had my doubts about Simon Weaver as a manager which for me will stop them from being possible title winners.
     
    We then come to Barnet. I was confident of them having a good season last year with them getting 
    John Still in as manager and him then building a really promising squad. Still left at Christmas as things hadn't quite gone to plan and Darren Currie took over. What was especially frustrating was their FA Cup run showed they had serious potential in that squad last season and they were superb against Brentford in one of the best games I have seen in a long time. They also went on a decent run towards the back end of the season again showing what might have been. If Currie can get them to be consistent then they could be in for a very good season and I am tempted to go in again, but ultimately I just wonder if they might need another season before being true title candidates so I am passing at this stage. 
     
    Can Solihull go one better than last season? In a word no. Fair play to Tim Flowers as although I certainly thought they shouldn't have been relegations favourites, I didn't think they would be capable of finishing 2nd. When they signed Paul McCallum from Eastleigh I thought it was a real sign of intent, but then nothing else really happened as far as really strong signings went so to me they look weaker than last season. Possible play-off contenders again, but hard to see them making that step up to winning the title.
     
    Peter Taylor's Dagenham & Redbridge are next in the betting and they certainly look a more promising prospect than at this stage last season when they had no money and looked real relegation candidates. A takeover meant money could be spent and they did enough to comfortably survive. I had them as a possible team to back at the end of last season given money was to be spent, but it then looks like they haven't actually got that much too spend as I am a bit underwhelmed by the signings. I am also doubtful about Peter Taylor being the right man for the job so I am happy to look elsewhere.
     
    Stockport finally got themselves out of the National League last season after getting the better of Chorley in a case of the slow starters (they went out to at least 25/1 for the title having been favs) beating the fast starters. They still aren't fully full time and that is always going to be a hindrance in this league. Top half maybe but hard to see anymore than that. Yeovil are also back at this level for the first time in even longer although of course coming in the other direction. Like Notts County they weren't in great shape, but their takeover happened in mid-June which has helped them. I always like a manager to have non-league experience and Darren Sarll doesn't have that. They look solid enough but I think it will be a year of mid-table obscurity for them.
     
    That's every team at 20/1 or shorter mentioned and I have two at bigger prices worth backing. First up is Hartlepool who look a massive price at 33/1. They have suffered badly with picking the wrong manager in their first two seasons at this level, but Craig Hignett looks the right man for the job and he certainly improved them when he took over last term. Based on that and the squad he has I think they should be around half that price and I expect them to have a much better season than their last two. I am also having a small investment in Bromley. One of the smaller teams in the league tend to be surprise promotion candidates and it could well be Bromley this year. They just missed out on the play-offs two years ago when a FA Trophy run got in the way a bit and then they went backwards last season finishing 14 points off the play-offs. I have however been really impressed with their signings over the summer and they look a club on the up having just opened up their brand new stand. They look to be building for life as a possible Football League club and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if they were that in a years time. They certainly make more appeal at 25/1 than a few teams shorter than them in the betting.
     
    Some people might fancy Dover, but I think Hessenthaler needs another season to completely change them around although they maybe sniffing around the play-offs. McCallum choosing Solihull over Eastleigh spoke volumes for me and I find it hard to see them reaching the play-offs again. Gary Hill did  a wonder job when he took over at Ebbsfleet last season given the off the pitch issues. They won't be getting promotion, but they should go better than their outsider tags. I can also see Boreham Wood having a better season. They really struggled last term after losing the play-off final to Tranmere last May and they look stronger this time around.
     
    Bet365 have a handicap market and I think Hartlepool getting 18 points and Bromley getting 15 points are worth a small bet e/w at 18/1.
     
    I love getting involved with the relegation market and there looks come cracking value again this year. Aldershot are odds on after being reprieved thanks to Gateshead and they will more than likely be in for another season of struggle, but make no appeal at the price. Alan Devonshire continues to defy the odds at Maidenhead and I wouldn't want to back against him doing the same again this season. I mention above that Boreham Wood should improve and I'm surprised to see Dover so short as well. Chorley could struggle, but I think they are capable of getting the right side of the line. We have the bizarre scenario of Notts County not being listed with Paddy's and Betfair and only 5/2 with BetVictor. In my view they will either go bust or be capable of surviving so I certainly wont be backing them. Another team with issues Ebbsfleet are the same price, but like Maidenhead the manager is more than capable of keeping them up.
     
    The two teams I like are Woking and Halifax. As I mention above the National League South was very low on quality last season and the bet on Braintree to come straight back down always looked like being a winner last term. Woking could well do exactly the same as them having been relegated and then winning the play-offs at the first time of asking. Granted they finished 2nd to Braintree's 7th, but I don't think there was a great deal of difference between the teams in the play-offs last season. They didn't really push Torquay close as they were only as close for so long because of Torquay's poor start before Johnson came in as manager. They don't look to have a strong side and I will be shocked if they don't struggle. They should be much shorter than 5/2 to go down. The other team I am backing is Halifax at 2/1. Jamie Fullarton resigned as manager a couple of weeks ago in very mysterious circumstances. That suggests something might not be right at the club and it is hardly ideal for your manager to leave so close to the season starting. With August being such a busy month the new manager Pete Wild who is not only going to have missed out on a pre-season, but is going to have little time in between matches to work on things and get new players in. Granted that will still give them plenty of times to sort things around, but they have a weak squad and things might not be right at the club. Also Pete Wild's knowledge of Non-League football is unlikely to be strong and he is very inexperienced. This is going to be a very tough first full time managerial job
     
    Finally I usually leave the top goalscorer market alone as it is always tricky and has seen some surprise winners, but if Danny Rowe stays fit it is almost impossible to not see him in the top 4 at the end of the season. If he was ever going to leave Fylde it would have been over the summer and given he hasn't (they don't exactly need the money) he will be there until April. Fylde will be up there and he will be scoring 20+ goals if he stays fit. Not only are BetVictor top price at 6/1, but they are also going 4 places which looks an e/w steal to me. Bet365's 11/2 first 3 is also more than acceptable.
     
    NB Notts County take over confirmed on Friday 26th July.
     
    National League South
    I am writing this on Thursday evening and it is probably a good thing I am as otherwise I would have had to rewrite the preview as big news came out which has changed my view point on the league a bit. I have been very keen on Havant & Waterlooville all summer. Paul Doswell was a good appointment as manager back in May and it is clear from the signings he has made that the club want to be back in the National League at the first time of asking. Given Torquay and Woking managed that last season it is very easy to see them following suit as their squad looks a cut above all bar one team in the division. Doswell has taking some Sutton players with him and I would say they look a stronger side than they did last season. I still think there is some juice in the price at 9/2.
     
    They were going to be one of my biggest ante-post bets and Billericay were just going to be savers, but all that changed when Matt Rhead was announced on Thursday evening. That is a huge signing at this level and although he isn't a prolific scorer, they have Jake Robinson for that, he will help create plenty of goals and he will be able to boss so many defences in this league. He isn't the only good signing either with the likes of Ronnie Henry also joining. Now I obviously have to mention the owner and as he calls himself joint-manager Glenn Tamplin. I really wish he wasn't anywhere near the dugout as I think he is a hindrance there having witnessed it for myself last season. That was in October before the bizarre actions off the pitch. The Non-League Paper ran a story saying they money had run out and they were up for sale and Jake Robinson left amongst others. I never really believed the story though as they still had a good squad although in the end they couldn't recover from a bad spell and even getting Robinson back wasn't enough to see them in the play-offs. I put them up as my strongest bet last season as I couldn't see them out of the 3 and obviously there is a concern that Tamplin could mess things up again, but they have the best squad in the division in what is still a weak league, Havant aside and I honestly can't see anyone else other than the above two teams winning it so I am having the same amount on both teams.
     
    Maidstone are next in the betting, but they don't excite me and I am not sure John Still is the right man for the job. No doubt Chelmsford will be up there again as they nearly always are. One year they will gain promotion, but they are going to have to attempt it via the play-offs for me. Sammy Moore left Concord in mysterious circumstances, but ended up at Hemel and has taken Concords best players with him. Concord finished 7th last season and Hemel should be play-off contenders. Bath look solid enough again and should be in and around the play-offs. Welling lost out in the play-off final, but Steve King has left and the budget cut so I can't see them finishing anywhere near the 3rd place King got them to last season. Braintree have got no chance and quotes of 12-14/1 is ludicrous. They have slashed the wage budget and signed a load of young players from leagues below. They will be nearer the relegation zone than the play-offs. Dartford blew a play-off place with a woeful end to the season, but they will be going for one again this term. I can see Eastbourne going better than their big odds suggest as they seem to be giving new manager Lee Bradbury money to invest.
     
    I am going to throw in a 3rd small e/w bet to the Havant and Billericay bets and that is my local team Dulwich Hamlet. I actually think Dulwich would have pipped Billericay to the Ryman Premier title two seasons ago had Dulwich not had to move grounds during the season. They were allowed back home half way through the season and were regularly getting crowds in the high 2000's on their return. I went to one game in January and didn't get into the ground until 30 minutes in because of the queues to get in. I am fully expecting them to be the best supported team in the division and with the off the field issues looking better they clearly have money to spend based on the players they have been signing. Gavin Rose is a superb manager and he got his eye in last season and has said he is wanting a play-off place this time around. He has signed well and although on paper they aren't as strong as Havant or Billericay I think they will be capable of pushing them close and at 20/1 they offer each/way value. 
     
    National League North
    I have made a right mess of this division the last couple of seasons. Choosing York over Salford two years ago and then getting nowhere near with my 3 picks last season. Hopefully I can do better this time around and having initially thought York were poor favourites I am now tipping them to win the title at 5/1. Steve Watson came in during last season and steadied the ship, but he has made some impressive signings and Steve McNulty is a huge one in defence. I don't think the league looks quite as strong as it has in the last couple of seasons and they look more than capable of making that step-up from their first two disappointing seasons at this level.
     
    The main dangers for me are Spennymoor and they look a very fair price at 10/1 to go along side York in the portfolio. They would have been in the play-offs two seasons ago, but for having to play a huge number of games in the last couple of months. Then last season they lost in the play-off final to Chorley in a penalty shoot-out. The squad looks strong again and they really ought to be challenging for the title.
     
    Chester are 2nd in the betting, but I am just not sure about them this season. Johnson and Morley had an OK first season in charge, but they seem to be talking down their chances a bit and I'm not sure the squad is strong enough to be going for the title. It could be that the managers need another season to get things right.
     
    Altrincham look pretty solid again and they should be in the play-off mix. Brackley might drop back a bit as they look weaker than their last couple of seasons. Hereford have strengthened well and Marc Richards will be hoping they will be in the play-off hunt otherwise he will be out a job. Kidderminster had a poor season last time around and I don't really see it getting much better for them this time either.
     
    I backed both Boston and Southport last season and I was tempted by both again as Boston look to be better and Southport showed glimpses of how good they could be last season. They are still full time and I think with another summer behind him Liam Watson has strengthened again. I think at 20/1 they are worth a small e/w bet. Darlington also were half tempting as Alun Armstrong did a superb job at Blyth and I think he will get Darlington in the play-off hunt this time around.
     
    BetVictor Northern Premier League
    The only step 3 league I didn't get the winner off last season as South Shields' dreadful early away form stopped them from beating Farsley for the title and then they failed in the play-offs. They are the team to beat for sure and the signing of Jason Gilchrest was very eye-catching. The problem is with BetVictor being first up and also heavily promoting (understandably) their prices it has meant some of their big prices have long gone and it has meant that the other two bookies, Hills and 365, who have priced up the Step 3 leagues have had their card marked. South Shields are priced up at 7/4 and as much as I think they will win it I can't put them up as a single bet at that price. I do suggest sticking them in any multiple bets you do which is what I will be doing. 
     
    Instead I will be putting up 3 e/w against them looking to get at least some e/w money back. Warrington have been strong the last 2 seasons in this division making the play-offs both times and Paul Carden again looks like he has built a squad that look set to challenge for the top spot. 12/1 is a big price about them.  Ashton look like they have an increased budget this season and have attracted some good players from the league above and at 12/1 they look worth backing as well. The final team is Gainsborough. I thought they disappointed a bit last season, but they look to have built a decent squad and at 16/1 they look overpriced.
     
    BetVictor Southern Premier League Central
    BetVictor made a massive rick when putting Tamworth in at 16/1 and no I wasn't in a position to take advantage at the time. Still I think they are just about value at 4/1 with Hills and Bet365. They did pretty well in the 2nd half of last season and they have made some really impressive signings over the summer and look to have the best squad in the division. With Kettering and Kings Lynn gone this league looks weak and Tamworth look by far the most likely winners.
     
    Nuneaton nearly went bust last season, but have had investment and have signed well. They should be play-off contenders, but last season was so bad I just wonder if winning the title is beyond them and they look a bit short in the betting. Stourbridge have a new manager this season in the first time in a long time. They tried to keep with Kettering last year, but were always going to come up short. They should go well again though. Royston and Peterborough Sports warrant mentions as being possible play-off clubs as well.
     
    I am going to back a couple of others though. Now this is one bet that really has been led by Paul as I wouldn't be putting them up without him, but he fancies Bromsgrove Sporting and he has sold me on them as well. They were promoted last season and look capable of going up again this term. 16/1 is on the big side. The other team is Rushall Olympic. I put them up last year and they were a bit disappointing, but were much improved in the 2nd half of the season. I like Liam McDonald as a manger and they have a 3G pitch this term and Liam has built his side around that fact. They could pick up plenty of points at home and at 20/1 they are worth a small bet e/w.
     
    BetVictor Southern Premier League South
    I think this could be the most competitive section with some strong looking teams going for the title. The main bet for me are Weston-Super-Mare who are looking to bounce straight back up. They were woeful last season and deserved to go down, but they have got Scott Bartlett in as manager which I think is a good move and he has signed really impressively. I actually think they have a stronger squad than last year and would be capable of doing OK in the National League South. 10/1 looks a big price to me.
     
    Taunton nearly pipped Weymouth to the title and it is no surprise they are in single figures. They should be a play-off team again, but they don't really look like they have progressed as a squad and they might pay for that. Gosport were woeful last year, but suddenly some money seems to have been found as they have signed pretty well. They look rather short to me in the betting though. Hayes & Yeading walked to the title last season and although they have lost some players, they still look strong and should go well as should Poole.
     
    I haven't mentioned the favourites Salisbury yet and they are the 2nd team I am going to back at 5/1. They had a good first season back at this level and they look capable of progressing past Taunton who have finished above them the last two seasons. The other bet has been that Paul has pointed me in the direction off and that is Chesham. Had a season very much of two halves last time around, but the 2nd half was good. I know I say I don't pay too much attention to pre-season friendlies, but something about one of their games caught my eye. They thrashed Hampton & Richmond a couple of weeks ago and the Hampton Twitter feed mentioned Chesham were playing the game at the sort of intensity you would expect from a league game. That bodes well for the season ahead and at BetVictor's 16/1 they are worth a small e/w bet.
     
    BetVictor Isthmian Premier Division
    The scene of the biggest ante-post winner I have ever had as Dorking won in a canter at 33/1. I also put up Margate, Kingstonian and Enfield and they are the same 3 teams I am going to put up again this year.
     
    Margate were very average until Jay Saunders came in as manager and they improved massively. They went straight to the top of my teams to back for the following season until he then left. A few weeks later however he was back and that is huge. He has already won this league and really should still be Maidstone manager and don't forget last summer Macclesfield tried to get him. He has signed well and I would have them as favourites so 10/1 is a big price.
     
    Kingstonian had a bizarre season last time around. They were terrible, then really good climbing to 2nd and then only got 4 points in 2019 just missing out on being relegated. They have got Merstham manager Hayden Bird in and after he got them to a play-off place last season he has taking 10 of the team with him. That should be to their advantage and they look to have a squad capable of pushing for the title.
     
    Enfield also threatened to play a part in the play-offs at least, but disappointed in the end to finish mid-table. Andy Leese has kept the best of the squad though and looks to have added well to it. They really ought to be capable of being in the play-offs at the very least.
     
    Hornchurch (they have dropped the AFC now) have been backed into market leaders. They were favourites going into last season as well and looked poor ones at that. It proved to be the case as they were miles off the pace from the start. Mark Stimson came in and improved things a bit to be fair. They seem to have a bit of cash and made some decent signings, but quite why they are as short as 7/2 baffles me as I would have them in double figures myself. Outside of that Bognor, Folkestone, Carshalton and Lewes should be capable of being in the play-off hunt.
     
     
    Wrexham 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
    Hartlepool 0.75pts e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365
    Bromley 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Marathon and Betway
    Hartlepool 0.5pts e/w on the handicap @ 18/1with Bet365
    Bromley 0.5pts e/w on the handicap @ 18/1 with Bet365
    Woking to go down 2pts @ 5/2 with BetVictor, Paddy Power and Betfair
    Halifax to go down 1pt @ 2/1 with BetVictor
    Danny Rowe 1.5pts e/w to be top goalscorer @ 6/1 with BetVictor (4 places)
     
    Havant & Waterlooville 2.5pts @ 9/2 with Bet365
    Billericay 2.5pts @ 5/1 with Bet365
    Dulwich Hamlet 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365
     
    York 2pts @ 5/1 with Bet365
    Spennymoor 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
    Southport 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet 365
     
    Warrington 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365
    Ashton 0.75pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor
    Gainsborough 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365 and William Hill
     
    Tamworth 2pts @ 4/1 with Bet365 and William Hill
    Bromsgrove 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor
    Rushall Olympic 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor
     
    Weston-Super-Mare 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
    Salisbury 1pt @ 5/1 with Bet365
    Chesham 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor
     
    Margate 1pts e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
    Kingstonian 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with BetVictor
    Enfield 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365
     
    Total points - 41
     
    NB price on Rowe now gone with BetVictor but still 11/2 with Bet365
  5. Like
    buga00 reacted to BillyHills in Prizes and New Divisions for Next Season   
    New Divisions for next season
    Div 1

     
    Div 2

     
    Div 3

     
    Div 4

     
    Div 5

     
    Div 6

     
    Div 7 

    Div 8

     
    Div 9

     
     
     
     
  6. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > April 27th   
    So we finally reach the last day of the regular season. It was nice to get a profit on Monday with Weston, Dover and Dorking all landing at big odds. This season has been very up and down although still be a decent enough season. The ante-post stuff will show a nice profit and we are basically waiting on who wins the Evo-Stik Southern Premier as Weymouth and Taunton were both covered. I really need it to be Weymouth to help land a lumpy mid-season acca I put on (although Farsley aren't home and hosed yet either), but at least I have Taunton covered. Hopefully it can be a profitable end of the season on the match betting front where I have some big prices again.
    AFC Fylde v Halifax
    It doesn't really matter if Fylde come 4th or 5th and I reckon they might rest a few players in this match with the play-off matches coming thick and fast next week. They are guaranteed a home tie in the first round of matches and will be away in the next tie if they get through anyway so with that in mind Halifax are worth a bet here at 11/2. They beat Wrexham 2-1 on Easter Monday who are the team in 5th at the moment so there is no reason why they can't repeat the same sort of performance here.
    Boreham Wood v Eastleigh
    The home side gave it a good go at Chesterfield for us on Monday, but ended up going down 3-2 after having a man sent off. Eastleigh made sure of their play-off spot by beating Maidenhead and like Fylde it doesn't really matter if they finish 6th or 7th because they will be away in both the possible games anyway and I can imagine that they will rest key players. This gives Wood a chance especially as they have performed well in recent weeks so are worth backing at just over 2/1.
    Bromley v Ebbsfleet
    God knows what is happening behind the scenes at Ebbsfleet, but the players still haven't been paid and it is hard to see how they are going to be overly motivated to put in a performance here for a club that is in a right mess off the pitch. The loss to Dover on Monday meant they can no longer finish in the play-offs so there really is nothing to play for and they were poor in that game as it was. Bromley have drawn 3 of their last 4 so still seem to be trying and they beat Leyton Orient 5 games ago. They should be favs for this and 7/4 looks a huge price.
    Hartlepool v Salford
    Taking a bit of a chance here, but I am backing the home side. I just wonder if Salford will decide to concentrate on the play-offs given they are highly unlikely to catch Leyton Orient. If Orient go in front early on then Salford will know their number is really up and they wont want to be risking injuries ahead of the play-offs. Hartlepool aren't exactly ending the season in great form but they did beat Halifax on Good Friday. Team news could be key, but it might just pay to be ahead of the game here and have a small investment at a big price in the hope Salford have one eye on the play-offs.
    Curzon Ashton v Spennymoor
    Not that long ago Spennymoor were in poor form, but they have won 4 of their last 5 games and are setting themselves up nicely for the play-offs. They got a huge win against at the time league leaders Chorley on Easter Monday and they will be trying here as if they can overtake Brackley then they will have one less game in the play-offs. As I have mentioned a few times of late Curzon have stopped for the season based on their performances and odds against on the away side picking up another win is a big price.
    Eastbourne v Concord
    I really don't get the price of Concord here. I think the bookies are basing it on the fact they are basically certain of a play-off spot, but what they have missed is the fact that they can finish 4th or 5th and that would mean a home tie in the first round of the play-offs. Given how strong they have been at home this season that would be huge if they could overtake Bath and or Chelmsford. God knows where Eastbourne's 6-0 drubbing of Dartford came from given it had been a very long time since they last won prior to that. They then drew with Slough 1-1 on Monday which was a decent effort as well. They are safe now though and with Concord still having something to play for they just should be 9/2.
    Woking v Gloucester City
    I suspect if Gloucester had not come from 2 down to beat Chippenham 3-2 on Monday then Gloucester would not have been such a big price for this because they still would have been fighting for their survival. Fortunately for me and my fellow City supporters we are now safe for another season, but I think we can go out on a win. Our away form has been much stronger than our home form this term, but the key point is that Woking have nothing to play for. They can only finish 2nd now and I really can't believe that they won't be resting players ahead of the play-offs. Why would Alan Dowson risk his key players in a meaningless game a few days ahead of trying to win promotion? 21/5 looks a big price on an away win to me.
    Halifax 1pt @ 11/2 with Ladbrokes and Coral
    Boreham Wood 1pt @ 101/50 with Marathon
    Bromley 2pts @ 7/4 with Marathon
    Hartlepool 1pt @ 21/4 with BetVictor
    Spennymoor 2.5pts @ 21/20 with Marathon
    Concord 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and Betfred
    Gloucester 1pt @ 21/5 with BetVictor
  7. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > April 13th   
    Barnet v Wrexham
    Barnet obviously let us down badly on Tuesday especially given they had gone a goal up, but I think scoring so early has actually gone against them. Given they were playing a relegated side and going a goal up I think they probably thought it was job done. That caught them out, but I think they might be able to bounce straight back here given their performances of late against the better sides in the league. We also have to add to this the fact Wrexham are struggling at the moment. They have lost 4 and won 2 of their last 6 games and the two games they won were against the bottom two sides in the league. Barnet are overpriced at nearly 5/2 so I am happy to back them for a 4th game running.
    Eastleigh v Gateshead
    On paper this is a game between two out of form sides as Eastleigh have lost 4 of their last 5 and Gateshead have picked up just 1 point in their last 5. Gateshead off the field issues have been well publicised and they only have 16 players thanks to cost cutting and a transfer embargo. I think they are running on empty now and fair play to them for going so close to the play-offs, but not surprisingly the off field issues have got in the way. I think we can upgrade Eastleigh's form especially their last two games in the past week. Going up to Fylde is never easy and after being in front they lost 4-2, but they were really unfortunate to lose to Leyton Orient on Tuesday 3-2 after being in front 2-1 at half time. With McCallum still among the goals, especially headers, I think they will prove too strong as they look to keep themselves in the top 7.
    Spennymoor v Brackley
    The home side blew up badly at the back end of last season although that was mainly because they had to cram so many games into such a short space of time. This time around they don't have that excuse and they have won just one of their last 8 games and that was against lowly Guiesely. They then lost 3-0 to Ashton who are likely to be relegated last weekend. Luckily for Spennymoor they already look to have enough points to qualify for the play-offs. Brackley are one place and 3 points above their hosts here and they could hardly be in better form having won 7 of their last 8 games and drawing the other. Win this and they should basically be guaranteed to 3rd place which of course is crucial as it means they play one less game in the play-offs.
    Burgess Hill v Brightlingsea Regent
    Three bets in the Bostik Premier to end with the week with the the first bet being a team looking to avoid relegation and they are showing signs they might just do that having won 3 of their last 4 games. The only defeat was when I put Margate up against them and they managed to beat Merstham in that spell as well. Last week they scored 2 late goals to beat Corinthian-Casuals 2-1. With their opponents not having anything to play for and the fact they have only won 2 of their last 10 games I think the home side are worth backing here.
    Enfield v Carshalton
    Enfield have lost 3 league games on the bounce including to Kingstonian last week which was their first leg win in 3 months. The other crucial thing for me in this fixture is the fact Enfield had the League Cup Final on Wednesday night which they won, but that was the only thing they had left to play for this season and it could be tough for them to get up for this game especially against a team looking to get into the play-offs. Carshalton have only lost once in the last ten, a surprising defeat to Corinthian-Casuals, and they look to have the upper hand for me in this fixture.
    Margate v Potters Bar
    I think we were a bit unlucky not to get paid out on the Margate bet last week as they should really have beaten Bishops Stortford, but I think they can bounce straight back here. Potters Bar did win last week, but that was against bottom side Harlow and it was only their 2nd victory in their last 9 games. Given how good Margate have been since Jay Saunders took over I think they win this.
    Barnet 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon
    Eastleigh 3pts @ 101/100 with Marathon
    Brackley 2pts @ 147/100 with Marathon
    Burgess Hill 1pt @ 6/4 with BetVictor
    Carshalton 2pts @ 6/4 with BetVictor
    Margate 2pts @ 6/5 with BetVictor
  8. Like
    buga00 got a reaction from yossa6133 in Non-League Predictions > April 9th   
    my combo for tonight

  9. Thanks
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > April 9th   
    Maidstone v Barnet
    Maidstone were finally relegated at the weekend and sometimes once a side's relegation is confirmed they can suddenly improve as the pressure is off, but that is my only worry about backing Barnet here as otherwise they look a cracking bet at odds against. Maidstone are bottom and they have been especially bad at home scoring just 15 and winning just twice. I don't really need to repeat what I have written about Barnet the last week as obviously they have won both times for us. They didn't play that well on Saturday, but a lot of that was down to the awful Maidenhead pitch and they still kept another clean sheet whilst nicking a goal. On a 3G pitch there is no excuse for them not to be able to play football. The last goal they let in was 8 games ago against Halifax and given Maidstone can't even average one a game at home surely it will be a case of Barnet only having to score to win this. I don't really get the drift at all and 11/10 looks a cracking price.
    Alfreton v Hereford
    The home side were unbeaten in 6 going into their game against Altrincham on Saturday, but they were then hammered 7-0. It is hard to know quite where that came from and we might see a response tonight, but then again given the team have nothing to play for they might not and Hereford are value to win this. They are in good form as Brackley are the only team to have beaten them in their last 9 games. They came back from 2 down on Saturday to draw 2-2 with 2nd place Stockport and they clearly wanting to finish the season strongly. At 2/1 they look the value call here.
    Barnet 4pts @ 11/10 with BetVictor
    Hereford 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365
  10. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > March 23rd   
    Unusually for me I don't really fancy anything at the prices in any of the 3 National Leagues today so I am going to Step 3 for my bets.
    Bamber Bridge v Farsley Celtic & Burgess Hill v Margate
    Both Farsley and Margate are around even money and I fancy both strongly so I think it is worth putting them in a double which pays 77/25 with Marathon. Bamber Bridge have lost 5 on the bounce and not won in 9. Celtic are top of the table and have won 7 of their last 9 games. Farsley should be shorter than they are to win and the same goes for Margate. I mentioned the other week that they have improved massively since Jay Saunders took over and that has continued. They have won 5 of their last 7 games and although Burgess Hill won last week that was their first victory in a long time. They beat the other out of form side Kingstonian and Margate should have too much for the bottom side.
    Redditch v Tamworth
    I am happy to back Tamworth again given their current form and they were superb last weekend when I put them up to beat Banbury. Redditch should offer a stiffer test, but Tamworth look really good at the moment and I think they can prove too strong for them.
    Farsley/Margate 3pts double @ 77/25 with Marathon
    Tamworth 1pt @ 7/5 with Marathon
     
  11. Like
    buga00 reacted to BillyHills in Latest Tables - Week 2   
  12. Thanks
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > March 15th   
    A good night on Tuesday which was certainly needed. The weather could well play a part in the games this weekend as it is set to be very windy so I am going to keep stakes small, but I like 7 bets. Only time for brief previews again.
    Dover v Halifax
    Granted its another long journey for Halifax after the Barnet game on Tuesday, but the price on them to win this is just too big not to take a chance with. They should never be 16/5 (Coral) as there isn't much between these two and as I wrote last week they continue to be very hard to beat. Some people might want the draw onside, but the away win looks the best value.
    Sutton v Gateshead
    Gateshead continue to somehow be play-off contenders despite having players sold basically behind the managers back and they don't have that many left, but Tuesday's loss to Solihull was their first defeat in 8 games. Clearly the team spirit is huge and that is taking them a long way. Sutton are really struggling at the moment having picked up just 2 points in their last 7 games. They have lost their last 3 including losing 3-0 to Braintree on Tuesday night. The away side look value at 85/40 with BetVictor.
    Darlington v Chester
    Chester let us down last week and it was a shocking goal they conceded as well. As I mentioned in that preview their away form is shocking anyway and they are worth opposing here. Granted Darlington haven't won in 5, but they have had a pretty tough set of fixtures and with Chester away's form they have their easiest game for a while. Marathon's 36/25 is worth taking.
    Guiseley v Curzon Ashton
    Guiseley last won on New Year's Day and they are in danger of a double relegation. They have lost their last 3 games and their last game was the reverse fixture. Take away a 6-0 loss at Altrincham, they have only lost one other against Brackley in their last 10. It makes little sense why Curzon are 21/10 with Marathon for this and they should be shorter.
    East Thurrock v Oxford City
    Granted Oxford nearly got something against Woking on Tuesday night, but their woeful run of results continued. East Thurrock have massively improved in the last couple of weeks. They were unlucky to lose to Torquay and then they beat Billericay and Truro in their last 2 games. Perform like they did in those 3 matches and they win this game. 147/100 with Marathon looks worth taking.
    Slough v Billericay
    Billericay have lost their last couple of games, but they did play well against Torquay last week and with Jake Robinson back they have a strong chance of beating a Slough team who have only won once in their last 6 games. 101/50 with Marathon on the away side is big for the better team out of these two.
    Tamworth v Banbury
    Tamworth are in a rich vein of form having won 5 of their last 6 games which has seen them go clear of the relegation zone. The loss was to another in form team Hitchin. Banbury have also won just two away games all season and this for me looks the best bet of the day at 23/20 with William Hill and BetVictor.
    Halifax 1pt @ 16/5 with Coral
    Gateshead 1pt @ 85/40 with BetVictor
    Darlington 1pt @ 36/25 with Marathon
    Curzon 1pt @ 21/10 with Marathon
    East Thurrock 1pt @ 147/100 with Marathon
    Billericy 1pt @ 101/50 with Marathon
    Tamworth 2pts @ 23/20 with William Hill and BetVictor
  13. Thanks
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > March 12th   
    Just failed to make a profit on Saturday but hopefully that can change on Tuesday night where I have 6 bets. This will be fairly brief as rather busy this week.
    Aldershot v Leyton Orient and Eastleigh v Maidstone
    I know Orient were held to a draw against Aldershot in the reverse fixture and they put in a good performance at Barrow on Saturday when being unfortunate to lose, but Orient really need to pick up 3 points in games like this if they are going to win the league and they should be too good for them. Eastleigh bounced straight back from losing to Halifax by beating Chesterfield 3-2 in an exciting game. Maidstone finally won another game of football by beating Havant, but this is a much tougher test and I can't see them getting anything. The double pays 2.19/1 with Marathon.
    Barnet v Halifax
    Barnet might have got something at Gateshead on Saturday had they not gone down to 10 men as they were a goal up at the time and ended up losing 2-1. Fact is it is 1 win in 9 now and they really need to be careful. I put up Halifax on Saturday and the game was called off so I won't repeat their stats, but given they beat Barnet 3-0 last week it is hard to understand why they are 14/5 (BetVictor) to beat them again here especially given they didn't play on Saturday.
    Bromley v Chesterfield
    Bromley have lost their last 3 although they only lost to a late penalty at Harrogate last week. They were poor on Saturday though as they lost 3-0 to Dagenham who had hardly been in great form of late. As mentioned above Chesterfield more than played their part in the 3-2 defeat to Eastleigh and that was only their 3rd defeat in their last 10 games with the other two coming against Harrogate and Wrexham. They are better than their current league position suggests and they certainly shouldn't be as big for this as they are (13/5 with Marathon)
    Ebbsfleet v Maidenhead
    Ebbsfleet were Halifax's opponents on Saturday so they haven't played either, but I still think Maidenhead offer value here at 19/5 with Marathon. They deserved their win over Sutton on Saturday especially as they only had 10 men for part of the game (Sutton also had a man sent off towards the end) and they are playing really solid as a squad as at the moment. 
    Oxford City v Woking
    God knows how Oxford conceded 5 goals to Hampton on Saturday given Hampton had only scored 4 goals in their previous 9 games. That makes it just 1 win and 1 draw in their last 10 games and they now face title chasing Woking. It is hard to understand why Woking are odds against (11/10 with Marathon) to win this as they should be odds on.
    St Albans v Weston-Super-Mare
    Weston produced a hell of a performance to beat Torquay a couple of weeks ago, but they then lost 5-0 to Wealdstone and could only play out a drab 0-0 draw with fellow bottom 3 side Hungerford. St Albans' home form is superb as they have only lost 1 of their last 10 home games and that was 7 games ago. They beat Dulwich on Saturday in a tough game and I think they will be too strong for the bottom side here. 143/100 with Marathon looks a big price.
    Leyton Orient/Eastleigh 1pt double @ 2.19/1 with Marathon
    Halifax 1pt @ 14/5 with BetVictor
    Chesterfield 1pt @ 13/5 with Marathon
    Maidenhead 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon
    Woking 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Marathon
    St Albans 2pts @ 143/100 with Marathon
  14. Like
    buga00 reacted to BillyHills in Latest Tables - Week 1   
  15. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > March 9th   
    The last 3 match days have been pretty horrendous although at least Chesterfield did win to cover some of Tuesday night's losses. It was doubly annoying that Concord scored a 90th minute winner as not only was the bet on a draw a loser, but Gloucester ended up losing as well. Hopefully the results will make a bit more sense this weekend and I have 7 bets.
    Braintree v Harrogate
    This tip pretty much writes itself and is a follow up from opposing Braintree on Tuesday night. They are playing like a team who know they are going to be relegated and just need putting out of their misery. After a dodgy spell the away side have found their form again having lost just one of their last 6 and that was against an in form, at the time, Ebbsfleet. They should be odds on for to win this and keep themselves in the play-off places.
    Halifax v Ebbsfleet
    I had Eastleigh on my shortlist last week to beat Halifax, but didn't put them up as Halifax are a team who are very hard to beat and they have conceded just 1 goal in their last 9 games. That goal came in their only loss in their last 10 games and was a penalty as well (ironically when I put them up to draw against Chelmsford). So in 9 games they have not conceded from open play. That is some going for a pretty average side, but those points have kept them clear of the relegation zone and crucially they have started winning matches now as they have won 3 of their last 4 including that Eastleigh game. They beat Barnet 3-0 on Tuesday night and I fancy them to beat an Ebbsfleet side whose small squad is now hindering them now they have injury issues. They have only won one of their last 6 although their may well be few goals as they have only once in their last 10 games have they conceded more than 1 goal. That included against Salford last week, but on the other hand they didn't manage one shot in the whole game. With Halifax looking more of an attacking threat of late they are overpriced to win this.
    Maidenhead v Sutton
    Maidenhead needed a late goal to get a point against Dagenham in a game I tipped them up in, but I am backing them again because I think they offer value. I also put Sutton up on Tuesday, but they were comfortably beaten by Salford and that game made it 4 games out of 5 where they have failed to score now. They haven't won in that spell either and as I said on Tuesday Maidenhead are in decent form at the moment. I'd make them slight favourites so the current price looks fair value.
    Chester v Leamington
    Chester's away form is shocking. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games on their travels and they won the other. They are bottom of the last 10 away games form table as well. I point this out to highlight the fact that at home they are a very different side and they sit in 4th in the last 10 home games form table. They have won 6 and lost just twice in that period and that is one of the reasons I make them the best bet of the weekend. The other is that Leamington are in dreadful form. They have lost four on the bounce, have won just one of their last ten and not won in 8 away games. Chester are the stronger team as well and everything points to a home win. There is no way it should be odds against and the price should be nearer the 4/6 mark.
    Eastbourne v Chelmsford
    I did wonder about backing Eastbourne last week given Mark McGhee has taken over as manager and they were playing Hampton, a side who I think deserve to go down. However they played out a dull 0-0 draw and McGhee clearly hadn't managed to get anymore out of his players than the former manager had. They have managed 3 points from 3 draws in their last 8 games now and Chelmsford should prove too good. They have only lost once in their last 10 games and currently sit in 3rd place. I have to say I didn't think a great deal of them when I saw them at Dulwich a couple of months back and they really struggled against Gloucester a couple of weeks ago, but the 3G pitch should suit them better than the mess that is the Evesham pitch. They are a big price to win this and again should really be odds on.
    Wealdstone v Welling
    Welling are a team in good form having lost just 3 in their last 10, but I have to take them on here. They have actually surprised me slightly given they had to reduce the wage budget yet they have still managed to get results, however most of those have come at home. Yes they might have won their last 2 away games, but they came against a badly out of form Oxford City and a Hungerford side in the bottom 3. This is a much different proposition as the home side haven't lost in 2019 which is a run of 11 games now. Hopefully that wont come to an end on Saturday.
    Merstham v Haringey (Bostik Premier)
    3rd plays 2nd here and I can't understand why Merstham aren't favs to win this. They sit 3 points behind Haringey, but they are in much better form. Haringey were top and had built up a healthy lead having gone on a long unbeaten run, but that seems a distant memory as they now sit 11 points behind Dorking (great news for those who backed them after I put them up at 33s) having won just 3 of their last 9 games. Merstham on the other hand are in really good form again having got pass a little 3 game blip where they only picked up a point. They have won all 3 games since and two of those came against sides in good form themselves. I just don't see how the prices are the way they are and the home side should be around the 5/4 mark not 19/10
    Harrogate 2.5pts @ evs with Bet365, William Hill and BetVictor
    Halifax 1pt @ 23/10 with BetVictor
    Maidenhead 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor
    Chester 3pts @ 21/20 with Marathon
    Chelmsford 2pts 131/100 with Marathon
    Wealdstone 1pt @ 139/100 with Marathon
    Merstham 1pt @ 19/10 with BetVictor
  16. Like
    buga00 reacted to BillyHills in Odds - Week 1 (Deadline Sat 3pm)   
    1 x 2
    Dont forget only 50% of bank allowed at any time.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     
     
  17. Like
    buga00 reacted to BillyHills in Division 4 - Week 1 Selections   
  18. Like
    buga00 reacted to BillyHills in New Divisions for next TC   
    Here is the list of totals in order which determines the divisions for the next TC
    Div 1

    Div 2

    Div 3


    Div 4

    Div 5

    Div 6

    Div 7

     
     
  19. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > March 5th   
    Well Saturday was a disaster that I don't want to be repeating anytime soon. Not sure I have ever had a session like that where all the teams have actually lost and not even got a point. There were some bizarre results all over the place though and for no team in the top half of the National League South table to pick up 3 points just highlights that fact. Hopefully we can get some of the losses back on Tuesday night where I have 5 bets.
    Barrow v Leyton Orient
    Barrow lost 3-1 at Barnet for us on Saturday, but I am backing them again here. They gave away 3 sloppy goals and their strikers had an off day as well, but as their manager said afterwards 'we passed them off the park'. Barnet's boss also mentioned that they have played better and lost so I think I was certainly on the right track with tipping them up. I think this game gives them a great chance of bouncing straight back despite the fact they are playing Leyton Orient. Orient won on Saturday at Havant, but they had to work hard for it and it was another below par performance from the title hopefuls. This will be another tough test as Barrow will make things very hard for them at home and I think this game is much close than the bookies think and BetVictor's 31/10 about a home win is well worth backing.
    Braintree v Chesterfield
    Great news for those that backed Braintree to go down as I put up in my ante-post preview because they are as good as down now. All they have to do is finish bottom which was another bet I put up although they will have some competition with Maidstone for that. They were bad on Saturday losing 3-0 to Dover and I think an in form Chesterfield look a good price at 11/8 with Marathon and William Hill. Chesterfield only had their 2nd defeat in their last 10 games on Saturday at Wrexham and they were unfortunate not to pick up a point. Chesterfield know they have to pick up 3 points to ease their relegation fears and they really ought to do it fairly comfortably.
    Maidenhead v Dagenham & Redbridge
    Maidenhead have been in good form in recent weeks and fair play to Alan Devonshire who has turned them around, because they looked to be heading for relegation not so long ago. They had won 3 on the bounce before losing 2-1 at Fylde on Saturday, but that is hardly a disgrace and they took the lead. I think they can join their rivals on Tuesday on 43 points. I have had a love/hate relationship with Dagenham this season, but they are worth opposing for me. I don't think they have been playing that well and they were really lucky to get a point on Saturday at Harrogate scoring the equalizer in the 92nd minute and they only had 3 shots the whole game. Marathon's 7/5 about a home win looks attractive.
    Salford City v Sutton United
    I wrote on Twitter on Friday night about the fact the Racing Post had tipped up Salford on Saturday to beat Ebbsfleet. Now it was a winning tip so fair play for that, but my main issue on the tip was the fact it was factually incorrect. They talked about the quality Salford have shown this season, yet as I wrote when I opposed them last week they have been shocking for about 3 months bar the two wins over Wrexham and Leyton Orient. Salford weren't great on Saturday either and I think they were fortunate to play an Ebbsfleet side weakened with injuries as they only had 4 subs and 3 of those were academy players. Sutton finally scored a goal on Saturday after going 3 games without a goal. They managed to go 2 up against Hartlepool before conceding  2 and the game ended in a draw. I must admit Sutton aren't in the greatest of form, but Saturday was better and teams have been performing above themselves at Salford this season so they are a speculative punt at Bet365's 16/5.
    Gloucester City v Concord Rangers
    Gloucester have now drawn their last 4 home games 0-0. Indeed since the new management team have taken over they have only conceded 1 goal (amazingly we scored 2 in that game). One of the big reasons behind the lack of action at home games is the fact that the pitch at Evesham is a mess and it makes it hard for teams to play any sort of decent football on it. Gloucester are also being set up to keep a clean sheet against the better teams in the league so they can keep picking up a point at the very least.Concord have only lost one of their last 9 games, but they have drawn 7 of those. All things point to this game being a draw and Marathon are best at 58/25.
    Barrow 1pt @ 31/10 with BetVictor
    Chesterfield 2pts @ 11/8 with Marathon and William Hill
    Maidenhead 1pt @ 7/5 with Marathon
    Sutton 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365
    Gloucester v Concord 1pt draw @ 58/25 with Marathon
  20. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Midweek 26th feb   
    A cracking weekend with some big prices landed and hopefully we can end February on a high as I have 2 bets for tonight and 1 for tomorrow.
    Just the tips for now preview to follow later
    East Thurrock v Torquay
    This preview pretty much writes itself. East Thurrock are really bad and I will be amazed if they don't go down. The match report for their game against Hampton at the weekend made for some funny reading as the reporter tried to convey how poor and dull the game was. If Torquay turn up in the right frame of mind, and they should do given they are going for the title, this should be a comfortable win and they should cover the -1 handicap.
    Hartley Wintney v Wimborne Town
    Not a league I put up bets in too often, but the in form away side look a fair bet here. They have only lost once in their last 10 games and that has included getting a point against leaders Taunton and beating another title contender Met Police 3-0. The slight concern would be their away form, but otherwise it looks a solid bet. Their hosts have only won twice in their last 10 and they have been against poor sides in Walton Casuals (who have beaten them since as well) and on Saturday they beat Tiverton, but again they are a poor side. 
    Lewes v Tonbridge Angels
    Tonbridge have had a very up and down season so far. They started of superbly and were top for a while. They then could hardly buy a win before coming out the other side and going 8 games unbeaten whilst wining 6 of them. They had their first lose on Saturday against Merstham, but they are flying themselves and put up a decent performance especially in the first half. Lewes have only won a couple in their last 10 matches and only picked up 2 points in their last 5 games. They just seem to be struggling at the moment and Angels look overpriced to bounce straight back from Saturday's defeat.
    Torquay -1 2pts @ 6/5 with Unibet and 888
    Wimborne Town 1pt @ 31/20 with Marathon
    Tonbridge Angels 1pt @ 85/40 with BetVictor
  21. Like
    buga00 reacted to BillyHills in Latest Tables - Week 9   
  22. Like
    buga00 reacted to BillyHills in New Players For Next Competition - Entries Closed   
    Anyone wishing to join in the competition for the next 'Mini Season'.
    Starts in two weeks time - March 10th
    Put your name in this thread and you will be included but please be aware of the rules and be available to play for the 10 week season.
    Anyone already playing need not re-apply as they will be added automatically.
    Ant eliminated players who want to rejoin will also be considered if you put your name down.
     
    Many thanks
  23. Like
    buga00 got a reaction from yossa6133 in Non-League Predictions > February 16th   
    my fun bet for tonight  shame i only put 4£ on this
  24. Like
    buga00 reacted to BillyHills in Division 7 - Week 8 Selections   
    Cracker
  25. Like
    buga00 reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > February 16th   
    I was considering putting Spennymoor up as a bet on the handicap and then decided to add them into the treble, but on thinking about it again I actually think it is worth backing them on the handicap. Boston put 5 past them last week and as I mention in the preview things have got even worse for them off the field in the week. As long as Spennymoor take the game seriously they could easily put a few past them as well.
    Spennymoor -1 2pts @ 8/5 with Betfair, 1pt on the -2 @ 15/4 with Unibet and 0.5pts @ 9/1 with Unibet
     
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