opole

Good call. I took Zeppieri yesterday @ 2.65 with big stake. My biggest bet this week so far. He'll beat Barranco.

Good call. I took Zeppieri yesterday @ 2.65 with big stake. My biggest bet this week so far. He'll beat Barranco.

Good call. I took Zeppieri yesterday @ 2.65 with big stake. My biggest bet this week so far. He'll beat Barranco.

Good call. I took Zeppieri yesterday @ 2.65 with big stake. My biggest bet this week so far. He'll beat Barranco.

Nanchang
Hao Wu vs. Vaclav Safranek @8.47 Pinnacle 4/10
I have to try this as Wu isn't bad. I know him from a couple of years ago where he was called one of the bigger prospects in China. He was decent Junior player, nearly cracked Top 100, beat a couple of decent names like Alexander Erler or Yibing Wu. He looked pretty good yesterday in qualifying. I watched the match and he was playing aggressively with big groundstrokes and huge serves. On the other side we have Safranek who's in a slump for months now. Losing to guys like Roncalli, Perchicot, Haerteis, lost sets to players like Sabanin or Netuschil aswell. He looked pretty bad last week vs. Myneni. Only landed ~50% of his first serves, and the second serve was a mess, lot of errors. If Wu has a big day and good rhytm he can make this closer than odds around 9 suggest and if Safranek losing the plot again the win for the underdog isn't out of reach.

Nanchang Challenger
Go Soeda vs. N. Sriram Balaji @3.03 Pinnacle 5/10
I do rate Balaji very high, he's pretty good player with nice variety, can play all styles (aggressive offensively, more defense with counter shots). Furthermore he has good serve aswell. I like his style and as he's focusing on doubles he hasn't a ranking in singles at all so he's often underrated and gets nice odds. He can play well on clay, played a lot on clay early in his career and has best winning % on clay. He likes those claycourts in Anning which are a bit special as there is high altitude and it's pretty special conditions according to some players. Soeda on the other side is absolutely NO clay player, he has terrible record on clay with 15-22 throughout his entire career, considering he's almost 35 years old this is pretty much all you need to know. Soedas last two wins on clay were vs. old and half retired Lleyton Hewitt 2015 in Houston and 2012 at the World Team Cup in Dusseldorf vs. Andy Roddick. He has absolutely no business on clay and odds are great here to fade him. 

Nanchang Challenger
Go Soeda vs. N. Sriram Balaji @3.03 Pinnacle 5/10
I do rate Balaji very high, he's pretty good player with nice variety, can play all styles (aggressive offensively, more defense with counter shots). Furthermore he has good serve aswell. I like his style and as he's focusing on doubles he hasn't a ranking in singles at all so he's often underrated and gets nice odds. He can play well on clay, played a lot on clay early in his career and has best winning % on clay. He likes those claycourts in Anning which are a bit special as there is high altitude and it's pretty special conditions according to some players. Soeda on the other side is absolutely NO clay player, he has terrible record on clay with 15-22 throughout his entire career, considering he's almost 35 years old this is pretty much all you need to know. Soedas last two wins on clay were vs. old and half retired Lleyton Hewitt 2015 in Houston and 2012 at the World Team Cup in Dusseldorf vs. Andy Roddick. He has absolutely no business on clay and odds are great here to fade him. 

Some Thursday action from Chechnya!
There is a big card in Grozny today, most matchups are mismatches to be honest and a lot of short odds there on the line but i think i found some value.
Islam Edisultanov wins by Decision or Technical Decision @3.40 Bet365 4/10
I taped Edisultanov and he looks decent, you can clearly see some kind of amateur background, he has good technique and nice footwork, creating angles and throwing with variety. He also looks like a big 154, i am pretty sure he'll be the bigger man compared to Evchenko. I like Evchenko, he's pretty solid and definitely much better than his record suggests which is 18-11-1 but he always comes to fight and never quits. 11 losses but 0 by KO so i doubt Edisultanov will stop him here. On the other side Edisultanov is fighting at home in Chechnya (he's from a town 30km away from Grozny in Chechnya) and he's promoted aswell. I don't see any other outcome here. 

ATP: Monte Carlo
Lucas Catarina vs. Jaume Munar +1.5 sets @4.69 Pinnacle 4/10
Catarina played a fantastic match vs. Raonic last year in Monte Carlo where he won the first set and was about to defeat Raonic but lost the plot in the end and lost in three sets. I think Raonic wasn't at 100% there and pulled out later on in the tournament but it was a great match of Catarina and of course i expect another good performance from him today as he's from Monaco so this is his home tournament and probably the match of the year. He's a great prospect with decent game, i can remember following him for a few years now and he's still young at age 22 and might get his breakthrough anytime soon although i don't think he's elite level prospect i can see him cracking the Top 200/250 and this should be enough to give Munar a tough fight here. I try +1.5 sets here, Munar is strong but he's more a grinder which suit Catarina with his flat hitting. Furthermore he has a good serve. I also think Munar looked tired in Marrakech vs. Paire. 

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Thank you for such a great analysis

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Grigor Dimitrov -1 game @2.00 Dafabet 3/10
I like Dimitrov here for some reasons. He's living in Monte-Carlo for years now and so this is kind of a home tournament for him. He prepared well in MC last two weeks hitting with a lot of good training partners and apparently he looked pretty good. My contact in MC told me he's looking strong and pumped and i think he can deal with a guy like Berrettini on clay who is - to be fair - a really good prospect who can make it to the Top 20/30 soon. Berrettini had good tournament in Phoenix and Sofia but overall more an average year so far with a lot of early losses. 

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Grigor Dimitrov -1 game @2.00 Dafabet 3/10
I like Dimitrov here for some reasons. He's living in Monte-Carlo for years now and so this is kind of a home tournament for him. He prepared well in MC last two weeks hitting with a lot of good training partners and apparently he looked pretty good. My contact in MC told me he's looking strong and pumped and i think he can deal with a guy like Berrettini on clay who is - to be fair - a really good prospect who can make it to the Top 20/30 soon. Berrettini had good tournament in Phoenix and Sofia but overall more an average year so far with a lot of early losses. 

Grigor Dimitrov -1 game @2.00 Dafabet 3/10
I like Dimitrov here for some reasons. He's living in Monte-Carlo for years now and so this is kind of a home tournament for him. He prepared well in MC last two weeks hitting with a lot of good training partners and apparently he looked pretty good. My contact in MC told me he's looking strong and pumped and i think he can deal with a guy like Berrettini on clay who is - to be fair - a really good prospect who can make it to the Top 20/30 soon. Berrettini had good tournament in Phoenix and Sofia but overall more an average year so far with a lot of early losses. 

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Ah ok thanks. My bookie only offers the traditional handicap, will put some money on the -1.5 anyhow.
Edit: Actually I see they have a -0.5 handicap. Excellent. Will do that instead.