neilovan

Hey,
I used to be playing 7 days a week, and started years ago on PokerStars, Paradise Poker, Ultimate Bet, Full tilt, Piggs Peak etc. My feeling is that online is dangerous. It is very easy to cheat, and say what they like, the various sites are clueless on how to stop it. Two things I would say. If you play a game like PLO, then you better have the right mindset for it. Big swings, and very volatile. You go from HIGH to LOW all day, and it's a game where you are going to get run over often. For me not worth playing online because you can get sandwiched between a low double suited wheel and a high double par hand easily (you get too much multi player action).
If I was playing online, I would want to play the same few guys HEADS-UP on a regular basis (and holdem). If I know I am a better player, making better reads, better folds, with better pre-flop discipline, I don't want others getting in the way. I don't mind losing to someone 2 times in every 10 meetings because in the long run I'm crushing it. And when you lose, don't steal their thunder or deny them the enjoyment of winning .... this way it's just a loan ... the cash comes back home.
Also, there is no collusion heads-up !
For me nothing worse than losing a huge hand to the table donkey in a live game, and then watching him donk your cash off to everyone else except you ! You sit there smiling through the aggravation, playing a game at a snails pace, seething inside, while this clown spews chips.   Heads up reduces this scenario to zero.

2-0 in 8 minutes , gotta love it.  More chance of winning at roulette at the moment.

The problem with this mini season is that it really like August and Sept at the beginning of a new season. You really don't know what will jump outta the box.
Feb, March, and April are great months for betting, as there is momentum, and you can see which teams are doing well and badly. Also the big squads have so many more players, and can rotate easily, while the smaller clubs are gasping !
For me the most amazing thing about the games under lockdown is how well behaved the players are. There is no "in your face", "screaming and carrying-on"  nonsense. They just get on with the game and play. It is really refreshing and just shoves how fans rev these guys up !
Hopefully it is something that MUST become the norm in the future.
Not overly excited about any of tonight's games.
I think that Villa or Sheffield United could win away. I am probably taking both bets (singles) on low stakes for the away win. If 1 of them wins I am in profit, and if both lose, it's not a train smash.
 
Crystal Palace v Man United.
Can Man United stop conceding stupid goals? Realistically who knows. They do look a little unbalanced, with too much attacking prowess, and not enough defensive solidarity. For me Bailly and Lindelof are just not up to the task (thanks for buying them Jose). I would be selling both, and then getting Koulibaly. Alongside blockhead they would be rock solid.
But they have to concentrate on the league. They need CL football like oxygen. Who cares about the FA cup ? (just ask van Gaal) . If they get CL football, they keep Pogba as well.  So they have to win here, and probably win big. If they can catch up Leicester in goal difference it could mean that a final day draw gets CL football.
United are 4 to 10 to win this game... which is ridiculously low  and not worth taking. The fact that they are giving up 1st half goals makes the AWAY win HT/FT a risky proposition. I like the over 2.5 goals here at odds of 1.75 or so. I would almost be tempted to go over 3.5 or even go away win and over 2.5 goals.
 
 

This weird end of season sprint for cash, really favors the big squad, well funded  teams. They have almost like for like replacements and depth, while the smaller units are just grinding over the line. The couple it with 5 substitutes and it is heavily skewed towards the big boys. 
Man United are playing some decent football. Moving the ball much faster, and playing with some swagger. Pogba and Fernandes doing a solid job in midfield and the confidence is coming back. But for me the most interesting player on the pitch is Mason Greenwood.  I can't remember when last I saw someone absolutely crack home two goals, one left foot and one right in the same game (maybe Ronaldo when Portugal played Switzerland in a playoff game). Two absolute rockets, taken early, pure strike, before the goalkeeper was set. You can't teach that. Either you got it or you don't
If United could sign Koulibaly this year, they will be a force next season. Everything else looks good. Pity de Gea is on a such an expensive long term contract, because he seems to pick the ball outta the net more often than he saves these days. 
Saints have been doing OK, but their bread and butter has been beating the lower ranked teams this season. In 12 games against lowly opponents they have won 8 times. Ok, they beat a demotivated Man City side, but I think United will cover a 2 goal margin here. 
Best odds and bet for me is the home win HT/FT at about 1.85
 
 
 

Brighton have struggled against the top sides this season, taking just 4 points from 9 games. Away from home they have 2 points from a possible 18. They have a tough run in, facing Man CIty, Liverpool and Man United at home. Their match at Norwich could decide their season.

Man United have been really poor against the lower teams away from home this season. Teams sitting back, seem to frustrate them, and break their counter attack style and flow. Losses to Bournemouth, West Ham, Watford and Newcastle (no goals scored in any of these 4 games) just clearly shows that something is not working.
I don't like the United way at the moment. Still miles too slow. The wingers look so unsure, and are happy just to stop and shuffle the ball onto someone else. For me,  very little coming from Shaw on the left flank. He seems to run into these impossible to pass-to positions.

So it is exactly the type of game that United don't want at the moment. A well organised opponent that sits in deep. I think United will really struggle here, and would be going under 2.5 goals as well as the home double chance. 

The odds of 1.72 for the under 2.5 goals bet is not worth it here. Just a little too low.

Prediction: Home Double chance (Win or Draw) @ 2.25

Football back with these strange crowd noises.
I'm pretty sure I  heard the crowd singing 'One-nil to the Arsenal' when Spurs went 1-0 up !

Spurs v Man United
I think both teams will be sluggish, and it will be a dull, slow, first half. I think the highest scoring half (second) may be the way to go here at slightly better than even money. I have a feeling United shade the 2nd half , after a 0-0 first half. HT draw FT United at 9/2 looks solid.
Maybe my predictions are slightly biased, as I can't much stand Mourinho. Lets see who he throws under the bus after this game?
He started the excuses early, saying Spurs can't compete financially...

Everyone of these guys has a fancy new hair cut. I thought visits to/from the barber were banned in the UK ?
Grealish had some weird braid/pig tail combination going. Way too much time and money :0

Everyone of these guys has a fancy new hair cut. I thought visits to/from the barber were banned in the UK ?
Grealish had some weird braid/pig tail combination going. Way too much time and money :0

Spurs v Man United
I think both teams will be sluggish, and it will be a dull, slow, first half. I think the highest scoring half (second) may be the way to go here at slightly better than even money. I have a feeling United shade the 2nd half , after a 0-0 first half. HT draw FT United at 9/2 looks solid.
Maybe my predictions are slightly biased, as I can't much stand Mourinho. Lets see who he throws under the bus after this game?
He started the excuses early, saying Spurs can't compete financially...

Tottenham vs Manchester United
The Premier League throws up a big game in the race for the Champions League qualification places tonight when Tottenham host Manchester United in an 8:15pm BST start at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Jose Mourinho will be looking to get a victory over on his old team as he also looks to re-ignite the hopes that the home team possess for reaching Europe's elite competition against a United side that appear to be resurgent.
Tottenham haven't endured the best of seasons compared to recent years. Mourinho was controversially appointed as the manager back on 20th November to replace the outgoing and popular Mauricio Pochettino. It's been a mixed bag of results for the former United and Chelsea manager who has lifted Spurs up slightly in the table to 8th place and just 4 points outside the coveted Champions League qualification spots. The season suspension came at a time when Tottenham had failed to win any of their previous 6 games. It's a slump in form including the team picking up just 1 point from their 3 league games before the break.
Manchester United have had a rollercoaster of a season with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer courted both the plaudits and the criticism in equal measure since the beginning of the campaign. The Red Devils sit in 5th place and that would be enough for a place in next season's Champions League with Manchester City currently banned from Europe for the next two seasons. In a complete contrast to Spurs, United won 8 and drew 3 of their 11 matches before the suspension kicked in. The signing of Bruno Fernandes in January appears to have had a huge positive impact.
I'm expecting a thrilling encounter here. Mourinho still does not yet have a solid defence that he can use as a foundation at Tottenham. This means he'll need to rely on his attacking strengths but without the suspended Dele Alli it could be a problem here. United come into this game with a strong squad and the potential of a Fernandes and Paul Pogba central midfield is mouth-watering. I think we could see a few goals here with United sneaking a win as Tottenham's rebuild continues to plod along in underwhelming fashion.
Manchester United to Win @ 2.43 with Unibet
BTTS @ 1.77 with SportNation

Assuming Aston Villa survive by goal difference or a point, could a team relegated instead of them sue Hawk Eye for missing an obvious goal last night ?

Hi All,
Been grinding through a 12 week semi lockdown in South Africa. Just waay to long, feels like the last 4 hours of a 16 hour flight.
A few factors regarding upcoming games. All of these games are uncharted territory. No league games have ever been played in these months.
Interestingly, the majority of games since the restart have finished under the 2.5 goal mark, and it def seems the way to go. 
Players are fed up, they would like to be chilling and spending some of the millions on holiday. 
In addition, I expect games to be played at a slower pace, in the Summer warmth. Nobody wants to look the slouch / unfit , and be gassed after 55 minutes.
Also, it is easier to defend, rather than score goals, especially when nobody is super match fit.
 
So be looking to go the under 2.5 in most of the upcoming games.
 

AZ v Man United
I really like the team that United are putting out.
Looking forward to seeing Brandon WIlliams, who hopefully has a great start and maybe is the long term replacement for Shaw.
Also for me Dalot is a huge upgrade on both Lingard and Perreira. I have no problem with Fred in midfield.The guy has a solid engine, and it is simply not easy to shine in a mis-firing team that is lacking confidence. I think Pogba is not missed at all.  He doesn't bring it and hardly influences a game.
 
It will still be disjointed. Too many new faces together for the 1st time on an old astroturf surface. I would definitely be going more second half goals in this game (odds 2.05) , and possible the HT draw, Man United win FT  (odds 5.5).
I think United grind out a 0-1 or 0-2 win here.
 
 

I think Chelsea will pound Newcastle probably 3 or 4 nil. Man United are just so useless that Newcastle looked reasonably good. 

Aston Villa v Brighton
Villa are coming off an excellent demolition job of Norwich City prior to the International break. They are obviously playing well, and it is a surprise that Jack Grealish can't get a call up into the England squad.

Brighton have not scored in 3 away league games and I feel that the drought could continue here. I expect Villa to take a 1st half lead and win. They have lost just one first half game at home in their last 9.
More importantly it is also my pick for the 'last man standing' competition, where I hope to progress further than the 1st hurdle (this time).
 
Man United v Liverpool 
Man United just nowhere to be seen. They are in a mess, and doubts are growing regarding Solksjaer's ability to solve the problem.

Realistically the mandate for a manager/coach is to have a solid game plan(tactics), help players reach their full potential, create an environment where the team and club can prosper, and deliver an appealing style of play on the pitch.

Does Solksjaer even tick any of these boxes? Would any other Premier league team want him as their manager? All he has done so far is give the youngsters the chance. But anybody could have done this ! What else is he bringing to the table apart from no experience and a poor track record.

One plus in his favor, is that he has not compounded Man United's bloated squad and transfer errors. All three signings look decent, and are definite upgrades of what was there.

Here is the deal for United and Woodward. Sell Pogba to Real Madrid for 120 million. Forget the combination of Ben Chilwell and James Maddison from Leicester. Just get Maddison, as you already have Shaw on a 50 million 5 year contract. Then forget about Mario Mandzukic and rather buy Callum Wilson from Bournemouth with the left over money from the Pogba sale. Great January business.

I just don't think they can rely on Martial, who is inconsistent and prone to injury. You need a solid center forward who can hold up the ball and do his best work in the 5 yard box. Rashford is not your man for this task.

Regardless of what United do, they need to sort out a director of football. Ajax have a perfect candidate (ex Man United keeper Edwin van der Saar), who is doing things brilliantly. Woodward won't move here because he is probably scared that  van der Saar takes his job. The sales of Jasper Cillessen, Arkadiusz Milik, Davy Klassen, Davinson Sanchez, Justin Kluivert, Frenkie de Jong and Matthijs de Ligt banked Ajax a cool 250m over 3 years. Imagine how good Ajax would be if they were not a feeder club?
Regarding Sunday's game the less said the better. I think Liverpool win it easily and could give United an absolute flat handed baba-knuckle .
Interesting that the odds on United winning have dropped from 8-1 to 5-1 now that Pogba is not playing .
Am going away win and over 2.5 goals in this game.

@neilovan
Great analysis. Villa HT/FT is 3.90, if you're feeling risky.
I think Leicester is a banker but personally staying away from games post-international break.

Aston Villa v Brighton
Villa are coming off an excellent demolition job of Norwich City prior to the International break. They are obviously playing well, and it is a surprise that Jack Grealish can't get a call up into the England squad.

Brighton have not scored in 3 away league games and I feel that the drought could continue here. I expect Villa to take a 1st half lead and win. They have lost just one first half game at home in their last 9.
More importantly it is also my pick for the 'last man standing' competition, where I hope to progress further than the 1st hurdle (this time).
 
Man United v Liverpool 
Man United just nowhere to be seen. They are in a mess, and doubts are growing regarding Solksjaer's ability to solve the problem.

Realistically the mandate for a manager/coach is to have a solid game plan(tactics), help players reach their full potential, create an environment where the team and club can prosper, and deliver an appealing style of play on the pitch.

Does Solksjaer even tick any of these boxes? Would any other Premier league team want him as their manager? All he has done so far is give the youngsters the chance. But anybody could have done this ! What else is he bringing to the table apart from no experience and a poor track record.

One plus in his favor, is that he has not compounded Man United's bloated squad and transfer errors. All three signings look decent, and are definite upgrades of what was there.

Here is the deal for United and Woodward. Sell Pogba to Real Madrid for 120 million. Forget the combination of Ben Chilwell and James Maddison from Leicester. Just get Maddison, as you already have Shaw on a 50 million 5 year contract. Then forget about Mario Mandzukic and rather buy Callum Wilson from Bournemouth with the left over money from the Pogba sale. Great January business.

I just don't think they can rely on Martial, who is inconsistent and prone to injury. You need a solid center forward who can hold up the ball and do his best work in the 5 yard box. Rashford is not your man for this task.

Regardless of what United do, they need to sort out a director of football. Ajax have a perfect candidate (ex Man United keeper Edwin van der Saar), who is doing things brilliantly. Woodward won't move here because he is probably scared that  van der Saar takes his job. The sales of Jasper Cillessen, Arkadiusz Milik, Davy Klassen, Davinson Sanchez, Justin Kluivert, Frenkie de Jong and Matthijs de Ligt banked Ajax a cool 250m over 3 years. Imagine how good Ajax would be if they were not a feeder club?
Regarding Sunday's game the less said the better. I think Liverpool win it easily and could give United an absolute flat handed baba-knuckle .
Interesting that the odds on United winning have dropped from 8-1 to 5-1 now that Pogba is not playing .
Am going away win and over 2.5 goals in this game.

Aston Villa v Brighton
Villa are coming off an excellent demolition job of Norwich City prior to the International break. They are obviously playing well, and it is a surprise that Jack Grealish can't get a call up into the England squad.

Brighton have not scored in 3 away league games and I feel that the drought could continue here. I expect Villa to take a 1st half lead and win. They have lost just one first half game at home in their last 9.
More importantly it is also my pick for the 'last man standing' competition, where I hope to progress further than the 1st hurdle (this time).
 
Man United v Liverpool 
Man United just nowhere to be seen. They are in a mess, and doubts are growing regarding Solksjaer's ability to solve the problem.

Realistically the mandate for a manager/coach is to have a solid game plan(tactics), help players reach their full potential, create an environment where the team and club can prosper, and deliver an appealing style of play on the pitch.

Does Solksjaer even tick any of these boxes? Would any other Premier league team want him as their manager? All he has done so far is give the youngsters the chance. But anybody could have done this ! What else is he bringing to the table apart from no experience and a poor track record.

One plus in his favor, is that he has not compounded Man United's bloated squad and transfer errors. All three signings look decent, and are definite upgrades of what was there.

Here is the deal for United and Woodward. Sell Pogba to Real Madrid for 120 million. Forget the combination of Ben Chilwell and James Maddison from Leicester. Just get Maddison, as you already have Shaw on a 50 million 5 year contract. Then forget about Mario Mandzukic and rather buy Callum Wilson from Bournemouth with the left over money from the Pogba sale. Great January business.

I just don't think they can rely on Martial, who is inconsistent and prone to injury. You need a solid center forward who can hold up the ball and do his best work in the 5 yard box. Rashford is not your man for this task.

Regardless of what United do, they need to sort out a director of football. Ajax have a perfect candidate (ex Man United keeper Edwin van der Saar), who is doing things brilliantly. Woodward won't move here because he is probably scared that  van der Saar takes his job. The sales of Jasper Cillessen, Arkadiusz Milik, Davy Klassen, Davinson Sanchez, Justin Kluivert, Frenkie de Jong and Matthijs de Ligt banked Ajax a cool 250m over 3 years. Imagine how good Ajax would be if they were not a feeder club?
Regarding Sunday's game the less said the better. I think Liverpool win it easily and could give United an absolute flat handed baba-knuckle .
Interesting that the odds on United winning have dropped from 8-1 to 5-1 now that Pogba is not playing .
Am going away win and over 2.5 goals in this game.

That win to NIL bet is just so tricky to win. There is always some stupid goal or weird stuff that  kills it.

Man United v Arsenal
My feeling is that Man United and Arsenal are just too inconsistent to have a large (MATCH WINNER) bet on at the moment.
United are hampered by Pogba who is a disruption. He wants away, and they should sell him to Real Madrid for 100million +.  Rather have 2 new 50 million pound midfielders that Poggie, that will give less problems, and cost less, and give more effort. For me it is a no-brainer. If they can get it done in Januray then great. C ya!
At the moment Pogba is a bad fit  for United. I say this for a number of reasons;
1) He is no leader. You can't build a team around this guy.
2) He feels he is bigger than the club. He is definitely putting his own interests first all the time, not helped by Ole bending over to accommodate him 
3) He has an agent  that causes friction and discontentment 
4) His attitude is that he does not want to be part of a 3 year Man United rebuilding cycle. He wants to play in the Champions League, and craves the spotlight.  
OK, NP sell him for the maximum. Seriously, how many really good games has he had for United in his stay there? 5 maybe...
Rather sell him and get two new midfielders that will give 100% and have a consistent rating of 6.5 to 8 most weeks.
Both Arsenal and United are conceding goals. United have the problem of not scoring enough, and are definitely a center forward short. Obviously the deal from Inter (for Lukaku sweetend with the Sanchez loan) was to good too turn down. But the injury to Martial has really screwed them. How is it possible that a team of the size of United have no center forward? Quite interesting in that both Morata and Lukaku are gone from the Premier league...
Arsenal have such a potent threat upfront. This is a team that will score goals. Aubameyang takes his chances well, but Lacazette will be missed. I do feel that Arsenal have more confidence than United at the moment, and it should just give them a slight edge.
Between these two inconsistent, relatively fairly matched teams, I would definitely be going over 2.5 goals in the game, instead of trying to find a winner.

That win to NIL bet is just so tricky to win. There is always some stupid goal or weird stuff that  kills it.

Man United v Arsenal
My feeling is that Man United and Arsenal are just too inconsistent to have a large (MATCH WINNER) bet on at the moment.
United are hampered by Pogba who is a disruption. He wants away, and they should sell him to Real Madrid for 100million +.  Rather have 2 new 50 million pound midfielders that Poggie, that will give less problems, and cost less, and give more effort. For me it is a no-brainer. If they can get it done in Januray then great. C ya!
At the moment Pogba is a bad fit  for United. I say this for a number of reasons;
1) He is no leader. You can't build a team around this guy.
2) He feels he is bigger than the club. He is definitely putting his own interests first all the time, not helped by Ole bending over to accommodate him 
3) He has an agent  that causes friction and discontentment 
4) His attitude is that he does not want to be part of a 3 year Man United rebuilding cycle. He wants to play in the Champions League, and craves the spotlight.  
OK, NP sell him for the maximum. Seriously, how many really good games has he had for United in his stay there? 5 maybe...
Rather sell him and get two new midfielders that will give 100% and have a consistent rating of 6.5 to 8 most weeks.
Both Arsenal and United are conceding goals. United have the problem of not scoring enough, and are definitely a center forward short. Obviously the deal from Inter (for Lukaku sweetend with the Sanchez loan) was to good too turn down. But the injury to Martial has really screwed them. How is it possible that a team of the size of United have no center forward? Quite interesting in that both Morata and Lukaku are gone from the Premier league...
Arsenal have such a potent threat upfront. This is a team that will score goals. Aubameyang takes his chances well, but Lacazette will be missed. I do feel that Arsenal have more confidence than United at the moment, and it should just give them a slight edge.
Between these two inconsistent, relatively fairly matched teams, I would definitely be going over 2.5 goals in the game, instead of trying to find a winner.

Two interesting games this afternoon.
West Ham v Man United
Watching Man United is not even enjoyable anymore. The football is insipid, and they still have no real style of play. Wingers or wing-backs are still stopping, and kicking the balkl backwards and sideways. Nothing much has changed under OGS, except the average age of the team on the field.
I don't think West Ham can beat them, but I just don't see a clean sheet from Man U, or Man United scoring more than a goal. So another low scoring borefest on the cards here.
The West Ham double chance bet looks solid.
Chelsea v Liverpool
I have a funny feeling Liverpool lose this game. They were not to good against Napoli in the CL midweek. I have a feeling they come out a little flat and get outplayed. CHelsea have been playing decent football, and sometimes not getting the results. But their style of play, and tactics are decent, and they will get better every week.  Home win and over 2.5 goals here.
 
 

Everton v Man City
The Norwich City game against Man CIty was just one of those really weird days. Take nothing away from Norwich, they were great .... but normally a team like City would find a way. Man CIty know they are 5 points behind Liverpool, and one of the ways to catch up 1 extra point is to beat Liverpool on goal difference. So I expect City to be very aggressive in going after goals. There will not be much sitting back and cruising at 3-0. They are going to spank teams 5 and 6, and they will do this surprisingly often.
Everton are just such a weird team it is crazy.  They go into the game against Shff U with such good home form, and just don't show. Bizarre.
I think they get an absolute hiding from a Man CIty team that will counter it's defensive woes by banging in bucket loads of goals.
The away win and over 2.5 goals is about 1.7 and looks as close to a banker that I can find this weekend. 
I think Man CIty cover the 3.5 goals and win which is at odds of 2.3